Hitting the Foul Pole

Burying the Yankee demons

2012-04-17T00:00:00-07:00

For years, the Twins have had demons in New York. Bats go silent; pitches get fat; calls don't go their way; in the rare case they have a lead, they let it get away. The fans and media have long suspected that the Twins' abysmal record against the Yankees over the past decade has been due to the supposed fact that the Yankees are in the Twins' heads.

Former fan-favorites Torii Hunter and Michael Cuddyer "admitted" as much, saying that everyone else on the team except for them (of course) were "nervous, all nervous", and that the Twins were "mentally down" when they had to face the Yankees. It was good of them to keep themselves out of the admission -- after all, they couldn't have possibly been culprits, it's not like they were the leaders of those teams or anything -- and even better because their accusations were simply not based in fact.

In Monday night's game against the Yankees, then, it sure seemed like those old demons would come back to haunt the Twins. In the first inning, Jamey Carroll was called out on a stolen base attempt by Phil Cuzzi, on a call that replay showed was incorrect. (You may recall that Phil Cuzzi was the left field umpire in that playoff game who called Joe Mauer's double "foul" when replay showed it landed over a foot fair.) When that was immediately followed by a Mauer double, it quite clearly cost the Twins a run.

And when the Twins' 2-0 first inning lead immediately turned into a 3-2 first inning deficit, memories of previous collapses came rushing back. Pavano struggled in that first inning, and looked like he didn't have it. They'd be spending the whole night burning through the bullpen, getting blown out and setting themselves up for struggles not only through the rest of the series but throughout the road trip. It's easy, I think, for an opponent to get into a fan's head: all you get to do is sit and watch, and wonder, and panic.

But the players didn't share that panic, at least not on that night. Pavano bounced back and completed six more innings, finishing with 7 IP, 7 H, 6 K, 1 BB, and 3 R. If you'd been told before the game that he'd do that, you'd have jumped all over it. The defense made big plays when they needed it -- not least Casilla's diving grab on a shot up the middle and glove-flip to Carroll to prevent what could have been a dangerous late-inning rally. And the offense didn't give up when the early lead disappeared; no, they came back and re-took the lead in the fifth, and later added some comfort in the eighth.

It was a good win that ultimately probably doesn't mean much. But the performance of Mauer and Morneau made it a Hollywood script. With Mauer's three hits, he's amassed 1107 on his career and passed Michael Cuddyer for 10th in Twins history. With Morneau's 6th inning home run, he passed Torii Hunter for the 7th-most RBI in Twins history.

I'm guessing that the Twins weren't thinking about Hunter and Cuddyer, or even the possibility of burying their Yankee-colored demons. That kind of thinking is more for fans than players. Still, for one night, it sure was nice to be able to say "suck it, Torii and Cuddyer".

If the Cubs are entering the 21st century, where are the Twins?

2012-01-13T00:00:00-08:00

We decided to dust off this blog and give it another try in 2012. Between busy years for both of us, and a lousy on field product, 2011 was a difficult year to blog about the Twins. So we didn't do it.

Earlier this week I finally got around to reading Jonah Keri's The Extra 2%. It details the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays rise from laughingstock to elite AL contender. The driving force behind this change was a new ownership group. Led by Stuart Sternberg and a cadre of Wall Street trained analysts. The rest you know.

I came across this article while reading Hardball Talk this morning. The cubs have signed a deal with bloomberg sports for a new player evaluation system. This is something I can only assume the Twins do not have, but would laugh the Bloomberg Sports sales rep out of the room. Probably while giving him wedgies or something. As with most people (or person) who read this blog, I am very frustrated with the arcane approach to player evaluation the Twins have taken, well, forever.

The extra 2% spends about half a chapter with quote from AL east executives lamenting the Garza/Young trade of 2007. Because Tampa got such a good deal, they knew they would have another strong team in their division. Even with Terry Ryan back in charge, I'm not sure I can envision the Twins staff outsmarting the likes of Freidman, Epstein, Cherrington, etc.

I am hesitant to blame ownership, because the Pohlad family has always been pretty hands off. So the brain trust that has been in place since the 90s is running this team with a pretty good head of steam, and it does not appear is if they will be changing course anytime soon.

Welcome back to the blog everyone, anybody have any thoughts on the topic.

Art vs Science, the final showdown! Wherein Jason Whitlock gets the fisking of his life.

2011-09-22T00:00:00-07:00

After an unexplained hiatus, we're back with a vengeance to fisk Jason Whitlock's tremendously great article about why everything is sucky and boring now and all you damn kids should get off his lawn. This one really riled up my Twitter feed this afternoon.

I won’t be going to see "Moneyball."

Oh good, my friend Jason Whitlock is emailing me to tell me about his plans for the weekend! I also won't be seeing Moneyball, at least until it comes out on Netflix*.

* I like the Netflix/Qwikster name change. Now that Netflix only has streaming, when I ask "Is it on Netflix?", my friends can simplify their responses from "Well, they have the DVD", to the much more precise and definitive: "No." It'll make things much easier.

The movie celebrates the plague ruining sports: sabermetrics.

I thought the plague killing sports was steroids. Or did sports end up not dying from that plague either?

That is not intended as a shot at Bill James, Billy Beane or Michael Lewis.

That's good, because that'd be totally uncalled for.

James (the inventor of sabermetrics) and Beane (the most adept user of sabermetrics) are baseball visionaries worthy of glorification. Michael Lewis (the author of the book "Moneyball" that celebrated Beane’s use of sabermetrics) is one of the most important writers of this era.

I don't know if I'd agree with everything you say here, Jason -- for example, I personally wouldn't call Beane "the most adept user" of sabermetrics, perhaps "an adept user" would be more accurate -- but those are pretty glowing introductions! I'm sure the three of them will appreciate whatever you have to say about them now that they have just the right amount of smoke in their asses.

Wait. Hell, maybe it is a dis — an unintended one — of James, Beane and Lewis.

As long as it was unintended.

They unwittingly conspired to remove much of the magic and mystery from baseball.

I love everything about this sentence. There's just so much here! First, of course, I can't get past the idea of the three of them unwittingly conspiring -- is it possible to unwittingly conspire to do anything? Doesn't the definition of "conspire" pretty much require that it not be done unwittingly? I mean, if you were to "make secret plans jointly", wouldn't you have to know about it? And if the plan was to remove much of the magic and mystery of baseball, well, why would they plan to do that? Bill James, if my understanding of him from having read everything Joe Posnanski writes is even close to accurate, was and is driven in large part to understand and appreciate the magic and mystery of baseball. Beane was trying to win ballgames. Lewis was trying to write an interesting book that makes him more rich and famous. Rational self interest, and all that. Not so much an anti-magic conspiracy.

Or are we just using words like "conspiracy" because they sound good? Because, you know, I'm cool with that.

They reduced the game to a statistical bore. It’s no longer enough to be down with OBP (on-base percentage). To talk the game, you now must understand OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging), VORP (value over replacement player), BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and on and on.

Yeah, understanding things is hard! It's better, if you're going to talk about something, to do everything possible to not understand anything about the subject. That way everyone will be impressed that you're able to have such strong opinions about something you don't care or think about.

There’s a stat for nearly every action in baseball. Little is left to the imagination. Sports were never intended to be a computer program, stripped to cold, hard, indisputable, statistical facts. Sports — particularly for fans — are not science. Sports, like art, are supposed to be interpreted.

And wine is supposed to be appreciated for its earthiness, or the faint aroma of leather or blueberries or summer wind blowing through the leaves of that tree on the other side of the vineyard, or some such wine snobbery; wine is an art, not a science. Therefore, chemistry is bad and scientists have conspired to remove much of the magic and mystery of getting drunk.

It’s difficult to interpret baseball these days. The stat geeks won’t let you argue. They quote sabermetrics and end all discussion. Is so-and-so a Hall of Famer? The sabermeticians will punch in the numbers and give you, in their mind, a definitive answer.

It's difficult to interpret baseball myopically these days. If, for example, you're trying to argue that Jack Morris is a better Hall of Fame candidate than Bert Blyleven, you will indeed get both a punch in the numbers and a definitive answer. But not everyone is such a divisive topic -- Morris' legend lives on in the dreams of aging men, who will never forget that great Game 7 he pitched that one time, but all too easily forget all the times he got a W when his team scored 8 runs for him. Other players are borderline statistical candidates, for whom heart and hustle and love of the game and how sweet his swing looks on a crisp September evening may be able to swing him one way or the other. Some guys are just so obviously not good enough that you deserve to be punched in the numbers for caring about their candidacy at all, and others are so obviously in that it really doesn't matter if they weren't nice to sportswriters after games. Is this really that complicated?

Thanks for inventing the phrase "punched in the numbers", by the way. I'm pretty sure I'm going to use that one.

It’s boring. It’s ruining sports.

That's, like, your opinion, man.

Sabermetrics or analytics are overrunning football, too. ESPN is pushing a new statistical way of analyzing NFL quarterbacks, Total Quarterback Rating.

People are trying to come up with better ways to understand that Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are really good? I'm intrigued, tell me more.

The nerds are winning.

Can't have that. They're nerds!

They’re stealing the game from those of us who enjoy examining the gray areas of sports.

You can still examine the gray areas of sports. Just, here's the thing, not every area of sports is a gray area.

We’re about 10 years away from a computer program that will write stats-based opinion pieces on sports.

Ah, have we reached the point of this article? The real reason my friend Jason is so scared and angry? Watch out for those computers, they're going to take our jobs!

I think it's worth pointing out, though, that while it's possible today to write a computer program that will write stats-based opinion pieces on sports, the writing isn't going to be very good. This isn't really something to be afraid of. Unless you don't want to understand anything, and you just want to be scared and angry. Which, as Americans, is what we do best!

Last season, the basketball analytics crowd was convinced that LeBron James and Dwight Howard deserved the MVP over Derrick Rose. The fact that Howard’s whiny, immature crybaby-ass was even in the discussion tells you all you need to know about analyzing the game solely on statistics. The Orlando Magic were a joke last season in part because of the immature environment fostered by Howard.

I don't know if "crybaby-ass" is a technical term, but I like it. It distracts me from what I care about when it comes to basketball, which is dunks. Dwight Howard is good at those.

As for James vs. Rose? Well, James devoured Rose in the Eastern Conference Finals. Rose’s defenders — most notably ESPN’s Ric Bucher — argued that Rose’s inferior supporting cast is what allowed the Heat and James to get the best of Rose and the Bulls. And by the time James disappeared in the NBA Finals, it was easy to see the merit of Bucher’s point.

I don't ... get this, but let's move on. We're talking about baseball, right? Or stats? What stats? Does it matter?

It doesn’t really matter who deserved the NBA’s MVP award.

Yeah, I guess it doesn't matter. Great! Let's keep talking about it, then.

What matters is that there was a fun, yearlong debate. As much as we enjoy watching the competition on the field or court, we take equal pleasure in interpreting and debating what we just saw.

Right. Which, apparently, you got to enjoy even though some people were considering facts before coming up with their opinions. So we're agreed, then? Stats aren't evil?

Sabermetrics/analytics undermines the debate. They try to interject absolutes.

Only statistics would interject absolutes. Jason Whitlock, as you can see from those two absolutely non-absolute statements, would never do that.

No one will ever convince me that John Elway isn’t the greatest quarterback/football player in NFL history. I know what I saw.

See? Jason Whitlock would never make a boldly absolute statement or undermine a debate.

I don’t care that Joe Montana won more Super Bowls. I don’t care that Dan Marino threw for more yards. I don’t care that Peyton Manning’s completion percentage is eight points higher.

Yeah, when it comes to quarterbacks, Super Bowls and yards and complete passes are pretty much irrelevant.

I can and have argued credibly and passionately that Elway is the best QB and player in the history of the league.

You can and/or have argued credibly about something? Prove it!

You are free to disagree. I invite you to disagree. I’d love to refute your erroneous position. Just bring more than stats to the table.

When you say "bring more than stats to the table", do you mean "don't consider facts, because those make it much more difficult for me to win arguments"? It kind of seems like that might be what you mean.

The games are about more than stats.

Hello, Mr Strawman? Hi, this is reality calling. Is there anyone, anywhere, who has ever attempted to refute this?

That’s what bothers me about this whole era of sports.

What is? That the games are about more than stats? I wouldn't have thought that would bother you.

In my lifetime, there have been two innovations that have significantly influenced sports fans: 1. fantasy leagues; 2. sabermetrics/analytics.

Just two innovations? I don't know, I thought the 24-hour news cycle influenced sports fans, and HDTV, and the internet, and live streaming of games, and Twitter, and a whole bunch of other innovative and cool things that enable fans to enjoy sports as much as they want to.

Again, the stat geeks are winning.

Everyone is winning.

Our perception of athletes and their value are primarily being dictated by statistics.

They don't have to be, but understanding what "value" means is helpful when you're trying to determine a player's value.

Peyton Manning is the king of fantasy football; therefore, he is the king of real football. LeBron James is the king of fantasy basketball; therefore, he is the king of real basketball.

What year is it? You know that Peyton Manning isn't playing right now and has killed millions of fantasy teams who drafted him, right? And you keep using that word "therefore" in a way that makes me wonder if you know what it means. LeBron and Manning are really good at their respective real sports, therefore they're really good in fantasy sports. For most people, fantasy doesn't dictate reality.

Is it a coincidence that James and Manning have both struggled in postseason play?

Um, yes? Also, didn't Peyton Manning win a Super Bowl? Seriously, what year is it, Jason?

I don’t know the answer. But I want to discuss and debate it. And I don’t want to do it with people who simply want to quote stats.

You mean quoting stats like "Peyton Manning won a Super Bowl"? Yeah, that kind of stat would be really inconvenient for your point. I can see why you wouldn't want to argue with someone capable of remembering that, or looking it up.

The answers and the questions that make sports special, unique, our collective national pastime, can’t be found on a stat sheet. They’re in our imaginations and our individual interpretation of what we witness.

That's true. And since stat sheets don't preclude either the answers or their questions, they can coexist with our imaginations and interpretations. You don't have to care only about the things statistics can quantify, just like you don't have to care only about the non-quantifiable things for which stats are useless. Those non-quantifiable things like "heart" and "clutchiness" or "crybaby-ass-itude" can still be enjoyed, they can be feared, they can be talked about. They can be a source of hope or dread. They can be as much a part of a sports fan's daily conversation as wOBA or WAR, or anything else.

When the "Moneyball" movie hysteria subsides, I hope the sabermeticians STFU.

I thought you didn't like newfangled acronyms. So, I'll help you out a little bit. STFU stands for "Shut The Fuck Up". This might be one of those times where you should heed your own advice.

Valencia likes it?

2011-06-20T00:00:00-07:00

I've noticed for a while that Gardy throws Valencia under the bus at every opportunity. In a game where Valencia hit a home run but also failed to advance the runner from second to third in a later at bat, Gardy will mention said failure in the postgame press conference. In a game in which the bullpen collapsed and threw away a big lead, Gardy will point out that Valencia didn't bunt, or muffed a hard grounder down the line, or something.

This has seemed to me like another example of one of the main problems I have with Gardy's managerial style -- that he seems to be very highly critical of his talented (but not highly talented) young-ish players, in a way that he isn't of players who are either old or bad or both.

But check out this quote, courtesy of Phil Mackey:

"I think he enjoys it, to tell you the truth," Gardenhire said, regarding Valencia handling criticism. "I think it makes him feel like he's a part of stuff when people are getting on him. Because he's constantly saying, 'How come these guys are getting on me about this, Gardy, and not getting on this guy about this?' So I know he likes it. I really believe he likes that stuff."

Evidently, Gardy is deliberately trying to find ways to criticize Valencia, because he thinks Valencia likes it.

Of course, when I hear that Valencia says "How come these cuys are getting on me about this, Gardy, and not getting on this guy about this?", I don't think that sounds like he likes it. It sounds like he thinks it's bullshit.

And even if Gardy is right, that Valencia does like being criticized more than all the other players even when he's not doing anything wrong, I imagine he doesn't appreciate it when Gardy says he needs to start producing more or he's going to be sent down to Rochester.

What do you think? Have I misread Valencia's feelings? Is Gardy out of touch? Or is this much ado about nothing?

Pitch to Contact Redux

2011-06-14T00:00:00-07:00

Pitch to contact.

It's a phrase whose meaning seems completely obvious to everyone who hears it -- except that nobody seems to be able to agree, exactly, on a definition. For some, it means that you should put the ball over the plate repeatedly, eschewing both strikeouts and walks and relying completely on the defense behind you for your success. For others, it means you should rely on your stuff and put the ball over the plate, and let the balls fall where they may. Maybe some people don't even see the difference between those definitions.

Sometimes, it can seem like "pitch to contact" is the only way some guys can survive in the league; could Nick Blackburn succeed if he were nibbling on the corners and walking guys in an effort to strike them out, or does he need to put the ball in the strike zone and hope the balls find gloves?

But other times, "pitch to contact" seems foolish, like when you're talking about the antithesis of Nick Blackburn, one Francisco Liriano. His main talent is inducing swings and misses -- literally pitching away from contact -- and that has always been where his value lies. This, I think, is what frustrates so many fans when the Twins insist to Liriano that he should be pitching to contact. It seems, from far away, that he should be doing the exact opposite of that.

And, from my vantage point far away, it seems like Liriano also thinks that he should be doing the opposite of that. In 2010, Liriano had an unusually high 33% of balls put into play become hits behind him -- a pitcher doesn't have total control over how many balls the defense will convert into outs behind him, and all pitchers generally allow between 29-30% to become hits -- which is why his tremendous strikeout-to-walk ratio didn't translate into an equally-sparkling ERA and win/loss record. It's a primary reason Liriano's 2010 was described as "unlucky." It stands to reason, then, that Liriano would react by avoiding contact, by trying to take more of the game into his own hands, by trying to rely less on his defense, which had repeatedly failed him all year.

This spring, I went to a game at Hammond Stadium that Liriano started. He only last three innings -- and he struck out nine guys. Every out he recorded was via a strikeout. Of course, he also allowed four hits and three walks; and those seven baserunners in three innings amounted to one run. That start was a microcosm of everything that is right with Liriano, that is wrong with Liriano, that goes Liriano's way, and that goes against him. And it's further evidence, I think, in the mind of the pitcher that he can't rely on the defense. If the batter makes any contact at all, they get a hit. So why in the world would he want to pitch to contact, and thus get shelled?

What I'm saying is that I can fully understand why Liriano would think that pitching to contact is a bad idea, and why he wouldn't want to submit his chances for success to the sub-par defense behind him, and to the cruel fates who've decided that luck isn't on his side.

And I can also easily understand that the Twins don't want him trying to do everything himself -- you can't strikeout everyone, and if you try you'll end up throwing too many sliders out of the zone and walk a guy every inning and run your pitch count so high you have to get pulled early in the game. A pitcher has to understand that he cannot control every outcome; he can only put himself in the best position to take advantage of the breaks that must eventually come his way.

But the real definition of "pitch to contact" continues to elude. Gardy has done his part to inject some confusion into the dialog:

"We understand that he can strike people out, but if he really wants to become a pitcher, pitch to contact."

Statements like that lend credence to the "pitch-to-contact means stop trying to strike people out" camp, of which Liriano apparently counts himself a member (after a start against the Royals in which he successfully "pitched to contact" while giving up five straight singles):

Liriano said he was "throwing more fastballs than I used to in the game today," adding, "I just wanted them to put them to put the ball in play, not try to strike out a lot of people."

This debate has been raging among fans all season, fueled by the burgeoning loss column, and by each miserable Liriano start, and by Pavano's league-worst strikeout rate.

On Monday, the heavyweights of the Twins blogosphere drew lines in the sand. Nick Nelson took the position that the Twins have been trying to tell Liriano to pitch well, and that his struggles are all on him and his command.

When Liriano was struggling he was barely throwing 50% strikes. How does that qualify as "pitching to contact"? Seems like an excuse. (@nnelson9)

I'd say that yesterday Liriano did exactly what the Twins want him to do. Throw strikes early in count, get ahead, then unleash the nasty. (@nnelson9)

Aaron Gleeman took the position that "pitch to contact" doesn't seem to exactly mean the same thing as "pitch well," and that the Twins have been confusing.

And you're saying the Twins basically just wanted him to pitch well, in which case they sure phrased that oddly. (@aarongleeman)

If they just wanted him to "throw strikes" I don't see why they wouldn't say that. What they said was different. (@aarongleeman)

So you're saying all the Twins did was phrase "throw strikes" poorly and now Liriano is just making excuses? That's a tough sell. (@aarongleeman)

Nelson continued:

I think it's clear Twins wanted him to do just what he did yesterday. 66% strikes, lots of quick outs, still plenty of K's. (@nnelson9)

"Pitch to contact" is just their terminology. People acting like they were trying to turn him into Duensing is insane. (@nnelson9)

I think he gets in a mentality sometimes where he gets too fine, tries to make every pitch unhittable, racks up huge p-counts (@nnelson9)

Saying, "Throw the ball over the plate early in the count, your stuff is great, don't be afraid of contact" = right approach. (@nnelson9)

So, after watching the argument from the sidelines,* who's right here?

* Gleeman later pointed out that "having long, public Twitter conversations with people you often instant message with feels weird." Basically, this was a private conversation, one that friends and strangers have had thousands of times in every bar in the country ... and this one had an audience of thousands. I'm going to go ahead and call this one of the wonders of Twitter.

Nelson's basic premise assumes that he understands what the Twins have been trying to say with their "pitch to contact" mantra. That when they say "pitch to contact," they don't mean "be like Nick Blackburn and give up a lot of hits," which is how it sometimes seems. So what are the Twins saying about that?

To clarify, it wasn't that Gardenhire and Anderson instructed Liriano to get rid of the strikeouts and pitch to the barrel of opponents' bats in April. They simply told Liriano, "Don't be afraid (of contact)," Anderson said.

"You can't strike everyone out on the first pitch. Your stuff's pretty good to get to two strikes. ...

"That was basically 'attack them more, trust your stuff.' But if you back up farther, it's more or less, 'keep yourself under control and let your pitches work,' like you saw (Sunday)."

Rick Anderson, clearly, falls into the "what the Twins mean is that pitch-to-contact means 'pitch well'" camp. (Which is utterly unsurprising, of course, because it strains belief that the pitching coach would actively want to make Liriano a worse pitcher, which has sometimes been the accusation around the blogosphere.)

It seems, then, that Nelson has understood what the Twins have been trying to say in way that many others haven't. When the Twins explain themselves more explicitly, they're saying exactly what Nelson says they mean. Still, it's hard to quibble with Gleeman's position that a) why not just say "throw strikes and trust your stuff" and scuttle the "pitch to contact" terminology that is so confusing? and b) whenever Liriano has tried to "pitch to contact" he's been focused on the contact and it hasn't worked at all.

Liriano, meanwhile, may have misunderstood the coaches in the same way that most fans have. Here's what he said after another bad start last month:

"To be honest, yeah, it's a little bit hard for me," Liriano said about pitching to contact. "But I want to go deeper into games, I don't want to be throwing four innings, five innings. Whatever I have to do to go deeper into games."

And this week, after nearly no-hitting the Rangers:

"I've always been the power pitcher, trying to strike out people," Liriano said. "I'm not the guy who's going to get 10 groundballs or 12 groundballs in a game. I'm trying to be me, (the way) I used to pitch last year and the year before. I'm not thinking about contact at all. ...

"I feel more comfortable pitching like that (power guy)."

So, if there are misunderstandings among the fans as to what exactly the Twins mean when they say "pitch to contact," well, I don't think it's that surprising. They haven't successfully explained it to their best pitcher either. Is that Liriano's fault, or is it on Gardenhire and Anderson? Like most failures in communication, I think a little bit of blame goes to both sides.

Gleeman and Liriano, like Nelson and the Twins, all have a point. Liriano does need to learn to pitch, and he can't just try to strike everyone out every time. He needs to learn to rely on his defense, but even more than that he needs to learn to trust his stuff -- hitting a baseball is the hardest thing you can do, and Liriano's stuff is good enough that most major league hitters can't make good contact even when it's in the strike zone. Liriano needs to grasp the intrinsic difficulty of hitting, and take advantage of it. Part of that is that he needs to stop dancing outside the zone in hopes of tempting the hitter to swing at something he can't even reach.

At the same time, though, the Twins need to make more of an effort to explain to him what exactly they mean when they tell him that. A good teacher isn't one that is always right -- it's one that knows his students well enough to say exactly what each of them needs to hear in order to learn. "Pitch to contact" might be clear enough for Blackburn, but it is obviously not clear enough for Liriano. So they should probably stop saying it, and stick to different platitudes like "throw strikes" and "trust your stuff" when it comes time to teach him.

It's a learning moment for everyone, then, from the fans to Liriano to the Twins. All thanks to an oddly public conversation on Twitter.

The first winning streak of the year, star-free

2011-04-19T00:00:00-07:00

The Twins have finally won consecutive games -- and all it took was removing Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau from the lineup. Obviously this is a coincidence, and shouldn't be taken to mean that the Twins are a better team without their two best players. But let's consider, shall we?

This is a graph of the 10-day moving average of the wOBA of a bunch of players:

You can see in that graph that the Twins' offense has been meek this year -- nearly the entire team was sitting below .300 wOBA for the whole year. Mauer, on the handful of days he played, was below a .300 wOBA.

But another thing you can see is that as soon as Mauer left the lineup, something happened. Delmon and Cuddyer and Valencia started swinging the bat -- you can see a strong upswing in all their lines as soon as Mauer's cuts off. And when Morneau left,* they continued to rise; except for Cuddyer, whose trajectory increased violently to match Kubel's. (Kubel, by the way, has been hitting very well lately. A .450 wOBA is excellent.)

Now, if I'm being honest, I'd assume that the timing of this is just a coincidence.* These guys are better hitters than their .200 wOBA was showing, and it was only a matter of time until they started making better contact. But let's just say the coincidence is striking.

* Except for Thome's precipitous drop coinciding with Morneau's absence from the lineup. He's played a lot of consecutive games now, and for the second year in a row that's not what he signed up for.

But still, I wonder if there's something to this. Gardy's teams have always performed better than their talent should have allowed -- until the team had talented players. Maybe there's something about Gardy's style of coaching that simply works better when there's less talent to work with, when there are no stars in the lineup. I doubt it can be quantified, but it seems believable that a manager could be more inspiring when the players know they can't rely on great players to win the game for them. I also think it's believable that, without lineup mainstays like Mauer and Morneau, Gardy has more freedom to tinker, to mix and match players, and to make moves.

That move-making doesn't always work, but it's worked the last two days. And Gardy's "let's stick together in the face of hardship"* act appears to have lit the fire that was necessary to get some of the Twins' essential bats to start clicking.

* Assuming, of course, that he's done anything. I hope it's fair to assume that.

The Twins were a very fun team to watch this decade when they were plucky underdogs -- and without Mauer and Morneau, that's what they can be again. Of course, it'd be best if Kubel and Young and Cuddyer and Valencia continued to hit well as Morneau and Mauer return, allowing the Twins to perform as the expensive machine they're supposed to be now that their payroll has rocketed past $100M.

What do you think? Coincidence? Gardy doing a good job? The players banding together without the protection of the stars? What are you talking about, it's only two games?

Having Two Closers is the Same as Having Zero; and Are They Who We Thought They Were?

2011-04-15T00:00:00-07:00

If I said the Twins were sputtering out of the gate, my car would sue me for libel. As a quick example, here's the home run leaderboard so far in the season:

Troy Tulowitzki: 5
Nelson Cruz: 5
Howie Kendrick: 4
Alex Rodriguez: 4
Miguel Cabrera: 4
Ryan Braun: 4
Asdrubal Cabrera: 4
Lance Berkman: 4
Ian Kinsler: 4
Mark Teixeira: 4
Pat Burrell: 4
Alfonso Soriano: 4
Jorge Posada: 4
Prince Fielder: 3
Jose Bautista: 3
Jonny Gomes: 3
Logan Morrison: 3
Paul Konerko: 3
Ryan Howard: 3
Russell Martin: 3
Alexei Ramirez: 3
Justin Upton: 3
Jason Heyward: 3
Chris Young: 3
Rickie Weeks: 3
Rod Barajas: 3
Josh Willingham: 3
Torii Hunter: 3
Brian Roberts: 3
Adrian Beltre: 3
The Minnesota Twins: 3

Sorry about making that list so long. Don't blame me, blame the Twins. They are currently the worst offensive team in the league, having amassed -0.5 WAR on offense thus far in the season. They are the second worst pitching team in the league, with 0.1 WAR. As a team, they're hitting .236/.283/.506, for a batting line that would get a backup catcher sent down the minors.* Every day, the Twins' fans debate on Twitter whether it's time to panic or whether it's just a small sample size.

* Except, of course, if you're the Twins' backup catcher. I'm beginning to suspect that Joe Mauer's contract includes a secret clause that says the Twins can't have an adequate backup for him, thus explaining Drew Butera's continued existence. I call it the Joe Mauer Must Look Good Clause.

But on Thursday night, that was supposed to change. They took their league-worst offense and faced off against the second worst offense, the Rays (-0.3 offensive WAR). Carl Pavano was on the mound, with his personal caddy behind the plate, Drew "Make Mauer Look Good" Butera. And Pavano didn't disappoint -- last week he dominated the anemic A's offense, giving up 1 run in 8 innings. This week, he dominated the Rays' offense, giving up 0 runs in 8 innings. He's doing what he can to silence those pesky complaints about his contract.

And to top it off, Pavano struck out 7 batters in his 8 innings, re-trading ground balls for strikeouts upon realizing that the Twins' infield defense can't field balls hit directly at them and can't move at all. (Michael Cuddyer started at second base, again.) Unfortunately for Pavano, and the Twins, Pavano doesn't know how to win. Eight scoreless innings is only a good performance if the bullpen can finish off the win.

Pavano left the game with a 2-0 lead -- the Twins had finally broken through in the 6th inning, characteristically leaving the bases loaded -- and Nathan took over the mound. You know that saying from football, that if you have two Quarterbacks, you really have zero? Well, the Twins are apparently trying to see if the same is true of Closers. With one out, Nathan induced Felipe Lopez to pop up to shallow right field, and the ball hung in the air for what seemed like minutes -- and was enough time for Morneau and Hughes to get from the infield all the way out there to right field, just in time to convince Cuddyer (who had apparently been playing somewhere in the plaza beyond the fence in right-center after switching from second base) not to attempt to catch the ball. It dropped in for a double; apparently that was enough to rattle Nathan, who walked the next batter. After a coaching visit to the mound, Nathan did what all Twins pitchers do after receiving a visit to the mound: he got rocked for a game-tying double.

So Pavano's effort was wasted, and Nathan had blown his first save of the year. For what it's worth, it should be the first of many.

Not to be outdone, Matt Capps* took over the mound in the 10th inning with the lead newly replenished -- by a potentially-game-winning single by Danny Valencia that made the score 3-2 -- and did everything in his power to make sure he didn't lose the race for most blown saves for the Twins this season. Just six pitches into his outing, he surrendered a walk-off home run to Johnny Damon, and the Twins got to hang their heads in shame once more.

* With all the whining about Mauer and Butera right now, is it cruel of me to point out that Wilson Ramos is currently hitting .450/.522/.550 right now? Yes, small sample size. Still, that OPS is double the Twins' as a team. And by the way, I am never going to let Matt Capps live down the fact that he was traded for Wilson Ramos, in some sort of cosmic do-over of the AJ Pierzynski heist.

Entering Thursday night, the Twins hadn't had many leads to protect, and neither Nathan nor Capps had blown a save. By the time the bartender of life cut off my MLB.tv feed, they'd each blown one. The bullpen is showing itself to be about as weak as everyone had feared it would be. The defense has somehow managed to be even weaker than everyone feared it would be. The starting rotation is currently having everything go wrong aside from injuries, which are surely right around the corner. And the offense, which was going to have to carry the load this season, well ... remember the old saying that against a good offense you'd have to pitch around the first eight and pitch to the pitcher? Well, we've found the opposite of that. Against the Twins, the optimal strategy seems to be "pitch to everyone, while the fans cross their fingers and hope there isn't a perfect game."

No, it isn't time to panic. It's still early in the season, though the Twins seem to be doing what they can to skip over the summer doldrums right to the end-of-season slide, having picked up right where they left off. But it sure would be nice if someone would light a fire. Right now, it seems like they're just going through the motions. And badly, at that.

The best thing that can be said about Thursday's game -- and possibly the worst thing that can be said about the season so far -- is that, while the game ended in crushing defeat, at least it distinguished itself by being exciting. The same cannot be said for the rest of the Twins' games so far, which have been mostly one-sided affairs filled with nothing but frustration, ineptitude, and boredom.

My question to you, the reader, is this: are you settling in for a long season to watch a surprisingly bad, boring team, or are you still hopeful* that they can turn it around and contend?

* And does the news that Mauer is on the DL change things?

Nathan's transition, and stealing a win from the Yankee beast

2011-04-06T00:00:00-07:00

Full count, two out. Nathan blew on his hand once, twice in the frigid night air. Thrice, and a fourth time. Jeter blew on his own hands, to warm them up. Time dragged on, slowing down as the end of the game approached with ever-decreasing inevitability.

At the beginning of the tenth inning, Dick & Bert were talking about Nathan's lack of confidence in his fastball. But he'd been throwing a lot of them, especially as he lost command of his slider. He'd hit 91 MPH with the fastball a few times, but caught a lot of the plate and was fortunate that the Jeter of today isn't the same Jeter that built the legend that bears that name, and he fouled them off.

The look on Joe Nathan's face said he knew he was all alone out there. That he was nearly out of gas, and his fingers were cold, and help was not coming. That if Jeter reached base, he'd have to face a red hot Mark Teixeira representing the winning run. A walkoff home run literally loomed in the on-deck circle, especially considering Nathan's chilled fingers and lack of command and diminished velocity.

Joe Nathan looked old. His beard, now, more white than anything else. It's more shocking than it might have been, except that he hadn't been seen for so long.

Five times, six, he blew into his right hand, desperate to warm up his fingers for one final attack. Seven. Nathan reared back, and he fired.

He's accustomed to having plenty of gas, for situations like this. Mid-to-high 90s, the type of heat that keeps his hands warm and blows away good hitters and made him one of the best closers in the game. He knows, though, that that heat has cooled, that his gifts have left him. This fastball won't have speed -- Nathan knows he has to win a battle of wills against Derek Jeter.

A battle of wills against the Yankees has, for many years, been the Twins' downfall. Too many times, they find themselves trailing the Yankees and the magic they have against, say, the White Sox, runs dry. I can't pretend to know what the problem is, and I daresay nobody does. But like any hitter in the midst of a slump, all you can do is keep running out there and smashing your head against the bars of your cell until you find that one phony bar and break through and escape.

The fastball arrived at home plate, high, probably above the zone. Scouting reports have been saying for the last few years that Jeter is vulnerable to high fastballs, that he can't hit them but can't lay off them. This one arrived, and the radar read just 89 but it seemed like it was faster -- Jeter swung late, and underneath, and he missed.

The game was over, and Joe Nathan had beat Derek Jeter. The score read 5-4, and the Twins had finally beat the Yankees. It hadn't been long since they'd faced another dark hour, behind in the late innings in New York. But tonight, for just one night, the Twins had vanquished their pinstriped demons.

It's just one win -- perhaps the more important thing is that Nathan has taken the next step in his transition from dominant firebreather to wily old man. He'll need to complete that transition to remain successful, unless his velocity returns. I don't know if it will, but tonight's save has to help Nathan's confidence in a way that Sunday's couldn't.

And maybe this is just one of those things, that this apparent breakthrough doesn't really mean anything -- like Kubel's grand slam against Mariano last year -- but it sure feels great to steal a win from the maw of the Yankee beast.

The Plan

2011-04-01T00:00:00-07:00

Well, that was a nice little vacation. We here at hitting the foul pole decided to take most of the winter off, rather than provide you with regular, but probably sub-par content. We're back starting today. As you all know, the Twins open up the 2011 season in Canada when Pavano faces Ricky Romero at 6:07 (07?! WTF) at the RogersCentre (centre?! WTF) in Toronto.

I've been reading recaps from the handful of games that took place yesterday and for most of the winning teams, the phrase "according to plan" was in the recap somewhere. That got me thinking, what should the Twins "plan" be to win the game today (and win the division). Last year, Pavano was relied upon to pitch deep into the ballgame, so one would assume that getting him into the 7th is a major part of the plan. That goes for probably everyone on the staff, but having the Kevin Slowey insurance blanket will be nice if someone flames out. Another thing that was supposed to be part of last year's plan was Span getting on base, that didn't happen too often in 2010. I think we need to see Span dramatically raise his OBP from last year and get it back into his 2008-09 range. I think he is capable of doing that, Over the Baggy did a nice write up looking for the root of his problem in 2010. I think everyone knows how the rest of the plan is suppose to work. Get guys on base for Mauer-Morneau-Young (and maybe Cuddyer and Kubel) and they drive them in. That part of the plan is pretty simple. Even with Span's problems we scored plenty of runs last year.

The next step is keeping everyone healthy. Losing Morneau last year didn't hurt us nearly as much as I would have thought. However, that doesn't mean I want it to happen again. Some of the more injury prone guys need to be given their fair share (or maybe more) days off early on, so that they can be 100% for the stretch run. It also helps that there are a lot of off days in April.

What else do the Twins need to do to be successful this season? I know I'm not breaking any ground with "get on base" and "stay healthy" but when it comes down to it, the formula for winning isn't that complicated. Welcome back to HTFP and we hope to have a great season.

Justin Morneau Returns a Hero, Win or Lose

2011-03-08T00:00:00-08:00

UPDATE: Morneau went 1-2 with a double and 3 RBI. The double came with the bases loaded, it cleared the bases, and was apparently an absolute rocket down the line. He was all smiles.

Good news, everyone: Justin Morneau is playing in a game today. He's getting into a B game against the Pirates, but whether it's A or B, or the opponent, or whether the team wins or loses, or whether he gets a hit or not, these things are utterly unimportant to the biggest, best news so far in 2011. Justin Morneau has been cleared to play in baseball games, and he's getting back onto the field. Joe Christensen was first with the news, and was quickly followed by the official announcement by the official Minnesota Twins Twitter feed. Phil Mackey says that the announcement is not official yet, but that doesn't mean it's wrong to get excited.

No, it's right and good. Get excited.

This has been a serious concussion -- it didn't seem like it would be at first, but the thing about concussions is that you can't tell and you never know. Having suffered my share of concussions, I am pulling for Morneau in a way that I never have before even as he established himself as one of the stars of the league for my favorite team.

I always root for comeback stories.* Josh Hamilton's was a good one, and it has been fun to root for him to ascend to stardom from the depths he found. But Morneau is different. He didn't choose to plumb those depths, they were instead thrust upon him. And perhaps most importantly, for me, is that I can relate to what he's going through in a way that I simply cannot for a guy like Hamilton.

* I believe that's common among Americans.

It's still springtime, and so it's still time to dream. With the sun shining brightly in the middle of an impossibly blue sky in the Fort Myers of my mind's eye, I can still hope that Morneau steps into the box and hasn't missed a beat. That he can return and be the .345/.437/.618 monster he was last year before he went down. That he will punish those baseballs that got a reprieve from his menacing bat for all these months. That the perceived front office missteps this offseason won't matter as long Morneau is in the lineup making opposing pitchers quiver in their cleats.

Whatever Morneau says about not needing much time to prepare for the season, I know there will be setbacks and unpromising days. I know there will be 0-for-4 days, probably several. But spring training, while a beautiful thing, doesn't matter. It doesn't matter how he does in these games.

What matters is that he's in them. For today, that's enough.

And for everyone who has struggled to recover from concussions, this is a lot bigger than baseball.

For them, this is about their lives. And win or lose, Morneau has a chance to be a hero.

Sid Hartman has an article up today with plenty of Morneau quotes that finally make it sound like he's close to recovery. Enjoy.

"We've had more good days than bad days," Morneau said Sunday. "I don't know, what we're waiting for it's got to be a week of good days or whatever it is, so we're still waiting for that.

"We haven't quite gotten to that point yet but it's been real minimal now. If there's anything, on a scale of 1-10, [the severity of the effects is] a one. We haven't had any days like we had back in September or October or November where I didn't feel like doing anything and if I had a headache I was laying in bed, that type of thing. It's been good."

"I think I'd be lying if I said the answer to that was no," he said. "When I got hit in the head in '05 [at Seattle], every once in a while I stepped in against a lefty and it would be in the back of my mind. I got over it over a little bit of time and things started to feel better and it was to a point where I didn't even think about it. I'm sure it will take a little bit of time but we'll get over that point. That's why we're going to wait until it's 100 percent so we're not worried about that stuff and I can be the hitter that I'm used to being."

"It's close now. Just making sure we're doing it right," Morneau said. "We don't want to come back too soon and then all of a sudden some stuff creeps back up and then we get set back. We want to come back, we want to come back fully 100 percent and not have any setbacks and not have any concerns of if we slide in or if we get hit by a pitch or whatever it is. They tell me when I'm recovered, I'm recovered, and if it happens again it's a new injury and we'll know better how to treat it."

"I've been doing everything down here [in Florida] that I normally do in spring training, I just haven't played in any games yet," he said. "This is the last hurdle we have to clear and we still got time. Personally, I feel like I only need about two weeks' of at-bats to get ready for the season, and even 10 days might be pushing it, but that will be close. And if we can go down to the minor league side and it's a little more lax down there, I can lead off every inning if I want to get nine at-bats in a game or stuff like that. There's ways to get me ready if I need to get ready."

"If I was 21 or 22 I think I'd be a little bit more worried or concerned about my timing and all the rest of it," he said. "But I've been around and I've had a lot of at-bats now in the big leagues, and I feel like my swing is what it is. It's kind of to the point where mechanically, it is what it is, and it will just be the timing that needs to come.

"Like I said, those two weeks or 40 at-bats, or whatever number you want to put on it, I think that's how long it will take, and once we get to that point, I think my swing is what it is and I'm pretty confident in that."

2011 Rotation

2011-03-05T00:00:00-08:00

Over the last few weeks, Ron Gardenhire has dropped hints as to who will be in the rotation. Pavano and Liriano are a given. He announced last week that Brian Duensing will start. Today, after three perfect innings, Blackburn secured a spot in the rotation. By my math, that leaves Baker and Slowey battling for the fifth and final spot. Unless, of course, Gardy goes back on his word. Which is entirely possible. So who should start the season in the bullpen? I'd have to say Slowey. Baker is playing under a 4 year/15.25 million dollar contract signed in 2009.

I don't see either as very useful in the bullpen, but it is nice to have an emergency starter. I also don't think there is much of a market for either. I like Baker due to his strikeout rates (7.82 in 2010) being higher than Slowey's (6.71 in 2010). Baker has a slightly worse K/BB ratio (3.44 vs 4.00), but both are solid numbers. I think Baker has better "stuff", so if forced to chose between the two for the last spot in the rotation I'm going with Baker.

What do you guys think? Is the battle between Baker and Slowey or is it more wide open than that?

What to do about Albert Pujols

2011-02-16T00:00:00-08:00

Albert Pujols has set a deadline of noon (eastern) today for the Cards to reach a deal with his agent. If they don't come up with something, all contract talks will be (allegedly) tabled until the offseason.

The Twins were in a somewhat similar situation with Joe Mauer last year. Mauer was entering the last season of his contract, and would have been able to name his price on the open market. I was torn at the time. I didn't want the Twins to overextend themselves, and hamper their ability to remain competitive for the duration of the contract. What if Joe got hurt and couldn't catch anymore? He was earning a mega-contract based on the fact that he was not only an excellent hitter, but a great catcher. That double threat doesn't come along very often. At the catcher position you usually sacrifice one or the other. Well, last spring Mauer signed an 8 year/184 million dollar contract that runs from 2011 through 2018. That is quite the commitment the Pohlad family made to the hometown hero.

I feel for Cards fans. They are in a similar tax-bracket as the Twins, so they really can't (or shouldn't) tie up a large portion of their payroll with one player. They are also playing in a new stadium, and have on the field success over the last few years. The Cards recently committed a ton of money to Matt Holliday, so if they miss out on Pujols I'm sure many will point to that as one of the reasons why. My theory on the whole thing is the Cards should let him walk if they think his contract (along with the rest of their long term commitments) will hamper them competitively over the life of the deal. After this season both Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez will be free agents. Now, neither of those guys are Albert Pujols, but they are certainly a nice consolation prize. Pujols had an MVP caliber year last year, and the Cards were beat out by the Reds for the NL central title. Since Pujols joined St. Louis in 2001, he has been worth a grand total of 80.6 wins above replacement. Using fangraphs' fancy new WAR grids we find out that leads all players for that time period. The next closest is A-Rod, at 71. That's a pretty significant gap. All that tells is that Pujols has been the best player in baseball over his career. We already knew that though, didn't we? Working in the financial services sector I had to amend the following to all of my outgoing emails "past performance does not guarantee future results". The Cards can't pay Pujols hundreds of millions of dollars based on what he has done over the last ten year, but what they think he is capable of over the next ten. If they believe he can perform at a high level for the life of the contract that, then by all means give it to him. However, if they think they will be grossly overpaying an aging former superstar for a good chunk of it, then they might be better off letting him walk. The Cards apparently have some of the smartest fans in baseball, so they should know the game is about teams not players. Will they find the next Albert Pujols? Probably not. Are they capable of winning without him? I certainly think so. It might be a bitter pill to swallow for Cards fans, but there can and will be life after Albert.

The Twins are thinking about trading Francisco Liriano? No, that's definitely crazy talk.

2011-02-10T00:00:00-08:00

Last week, the Twins signed Francisco Liriano to a one year, $4.3M deal to avoid arbitration this year. It was a wise move -- salary arbitration can be a rough process, with potential ramifications for the relationship between the team and the player, because in the course of making its case the team essentially has to do everything it can to insult the player. Additionally, the Twins have in the past signed a deal like this one to avoid arbitration while continuing to work on a long term extension; that's exactly what they did with Morneau, ripping up and replacing his one year contract with a six year extension after just one week.

So, a week later, what happens? Well, we get a report from Joe Christensen that says that the Twins' relationship with their ace left hander is apparently already sour, and they do not plan to give him an extension -- in fact, he says that trading Liriano "isn't just crazy talk."

One thing is clear: The Twins don't plan to sign him long term. Last weekend, they avoided arbitration with a one-year, $4.3 million deal. From what I've heard, their long-term talks went nowhere, with Liriano's camp hinting it wanted a three-year, $39 million contract.

First, let's take a look at Liriano's demands for a 3/$39M deal. He has two years of arbitration left, so that deal would cover one year of free agency. The second year of arbitration typically is valued at 60% of free market, and the third and final year is typically 80% of free market value. So this three year deal would effectively pay for 2.4 years of Liriano's free market services, which means Liriano's agent is placing a year of Liriano's services on the free agent market at $16.25; now, how good would Liriano have to be to be worth that price? I can't tell how much a win is going for on the free agent market right now, but it seems like it's somewhere between $4M/win and $5M/win. At $4M/win, that contract would value Liriano as a 4 WAR pitcher; at $4.5M/win, he'd have to be a 3.6 WAR pitcher; at $5M/win, he'd have to be a 3.25 WAR pitcher.

On the other hand, his $4.3M deal this year is supposed to be 60% of his free market value, which means his current contract values him at just $7.1M, probably taking into account his shaky track record and the fact that he remains a significant injury risk.

Let's take a gander at said shaky track record -- in 2006 he put up 4.1 WAR in a shortened season prior to his injury, and that injury and his slow recovery from it led to 0 WAR in a missed 2007, 1.5 WAR in 2008, and 1.1 WAR in 2009, before he broke out again and posted 6.0 WAR as one of the top pitchers in the league in 2010. And all his predictive statistics indicate that his performance was sustainable and will even improve with better-than-the-worst-luck-in-the-league. If you believe he's healthy and can remain healthy, Liriano seems like a safe bet to be a 4 WAR pitcher and the contract is a no-brainer. If you think he's a huge injury risk or that his success in 2006 and 2010 was a fluke and his true talent lies somewhere in the "can't throw strikes or get anybody out" range that he showed in 2008 and 2009 while his velocity was down, then you probably wouldn't want to guarantee him any more money or years than you absolutely have to.

The Star Tribune is -- at the very least -- strongly implying that this is the Twins' thinking. That the Twins front office is actually down on Liriano and does not want to sign him to an extension. That they are, like some sportswriters and fans, selectively seeing only Liriano's failures in 2010 and not his dominant outings. That they're seriously entertaining the idea of trading Liriano for pennies on the dollar.

in his final 20 starts, including the postseason, he didn't finish the eighth inning once.

That seems like an odd measure of talent. The ability to finish eight innings in a start? In the second half of your first full major league season in your career, after pitching all winter in winter ball and all summer at multiple levels the previous year while recovering from major elbow surgery? I hope that's not a "stat" that people lend any real credence to.

In his much-hyped showdown with Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez, the Rockies batted around in the first inning. The Twins won all five of Liriano's starts against the White Sox, but his performances were more white-knuckle than dominant.

He had a bad game, and then he won a bunch of games against a division rival during a pennant race, but those don't count because they were close games.

Then, in Game 1 of the Division Series, Liriano had a 3-0 lead in the sixth inning when the Yankees came back to tie it. Afterward, Liriano was his usual polite self, but it was a huge letdown for the team.

Then he lost a game in the playoffs, and it counts because it was a close game.

Oh, and if you think that "logic" from the Star Tribune (or, worse, the Twins) is inane, here's some more. This time from Howard Sinker, "analyzing" how the Twins could make a trade work.

The fact that manager Ron Gardenhire has talked about the need for more speed in the middle infield is all well and good. But when you have the chance to replace Alexi Casilla with Michael Young, this is a time when you sacrifice speed and some defense and go for the bat. Casilla would make a fine fifth infielder.

And as Jim Bowden, the former Reds and Nationals GM, said on his XM/Sirius show Wednesday afternoon, the Rangers are in a position where they won't get 100 percent value for Young.

In a deal with the Twins, that would mean Texas picking up a big chunk of Young's salary. For the Rangers, it means getting a lefty pitcher who doesn't have Lee's credentials, but brings a lot more to them than other options. (Somehow, I don't think that signing ex-Brewer Dave Bush is viewed as a replacement for Lee.)

Rangers beat writer Evan Grant wrote the other day that "right now, about all you can get (for Young) is a bad contract." The Rockies had been talking about a Young deal that included second baseman Eric Young Jr.

So Liriano totally blows away anything that's been discussed -- which is why the Rangers have so far dismissed what's on the table.

So, let me get this straight. The Twins suddenly have an "opportunity" to replace their speed-oriented middle infield with a "bat" in the form of Michael Young. And the Rangers are in the position of having to either eat Young's ridiculous salary or take a pittance in a trade, or both. That's why the trade market for Young's services are ice cold -- other teams realize he's an old man whose contract matches his production so poorly that he's not worth acquiring even if the Rangers pick up most of his salary. And since the Rangers won't get full value, and the best offer they've received so far is Eric Young Jr -- who has never been better than replacement level in his career, with a -0.3 WAR and -0.4 WAR in the last two seasons -- the obvious solution is that the Twins should offer Francisco Liriano, their best pitcher, one of their best players?

Sinker is right that Liriano totally blows away anything that's been discussed in the Young talks thus far. And that's because if the Twins are offering Liriano to the Rangers, the return should be more like Neftali Feliz + high end prospects, rather than drastically-overpaid-old-guy. Dave Cameron expects that Liriano's trade value is somewhere between Marcum's and Garza's,* and thus should yield someone close to a top prospect but not an absolute-top-shelf prospect. Note in that article that Michael Young isn't mentioned, because it's ludicrous to even consider that.

* That's the Garza 2 trade, when the Rays got all of the Cubs' top prospects for him. Not the Garza 1 trade when the Twins got a busted prospect for him. Bill Smith just keeps looking better and better, eh?

Oh ... and if it's a good idea to scrap the speed-in-the-middle-infield plan in favor of an infielder who can actually hit, what about the one the Twins gave up, JJ Hardy? He offered elite defense at shortstop -- something Young absolutely does not. He offered a bat with some pop in it -- something Young absolutely does not. He had an affordable contract -- something Young absolutely does not. He yielded a couple of mediocre relief pitchers in a trade -- not anything close to the value of Liriano.

I can't tell what the Star Tribune is doing here. Have they actually heard, from the Twins, that Liriano-for-Young talks have happened, or that the Twins are considering starting such talks? Are they accurately representing the Twins' views on Liriano? Or are they making this up, speculating for the sake of stirring the hot stove pot, baiting clicks to their website where they automatically refresh the page every 30 seconds to goose their pageviews and falsely inflate their pageview statistics to get a better rate on their advertisements? Have they really become this desperate, now that Phil Mackey and ESPN have rendered them completely useless? Ouch.

Publicly, the Twins keep saying Liriano is a big part of their 2011 plans. They'd love to see him prove the skeptics wrong and blossom into a 20-game winner, even if this leaves fans screaming about their decision not to sign him long term.

When your best hope is that you get embarrassed -- and you work to ensure that'll happen no matter what -- then you're doing something wrong.

What do you think? Are the Twins seriously considering this, or is the Strib just stirring the pot? What do you think is the right thing to do with Liriano -- go year to year through arbitration, sign him to a long term extension, or trade him? And what do you think is a reasonable return in trade, or size of contract?

Close your eyes and dream: a look at the top prospects in the Twins' farm system

2011-01-28T00:00:00-08:00

With all this talk about the 2011 season, and the complaints about the offseason spending that makes me wonder if I was imagining the packed Target Field every day in 2010, I feel like things are getting a little too short-sighted and whiny.

Keith Law's organizational rankings and top 100 prospect lists just came out this week, so let's take a quick glance at the top guys in the Twins' system and let a few dreams carry us closer to Spring Training.

Law gives the Twins the 7th-best system in the majors; frankly, that's higher than I assumed they'd be ranked given what has seemed like a paucity of impact players at the upper and middle levels of the system. But that may have just been a multi-year blip, and the farm system seems to be re-filling.

A sneaky-good system, it's not loaded with big names but boasts a few impact guys and a ton of depth. This is more than just the Twins' usual assortment of strike-throwing fourth starters and speedy outfielders, a testament to good drafting and some major investments in the international arena, where they've been as aggressive as any club.

He puts five Twins prospects in his Top 100: Aaron Hicks, Miguel Angel Sano/Jean, Kyle Gibson, Ben Revere, and Oswaldo Arcia.

10: Aaron Hicks

A 21 year old switch-hitting outfielder, the Twins have been excited about him since they drafted him out of high school, but have been moving him along slowly.

Hicks took a step forward in 2010 by converting his tools into baseball performance. He's a true five-tool player, with an 80 arm in the outfield, above-average speed, future plus power and excellent bat speed. He's much smoother hitting right-handed, with better balance and weight transfer, and it showed this year in his platoon split, as he hit just .248/.383/.339 against right-handers even though he was repeating the level.

His plate discipline continues to improve, and there's plenty of leverage in there for power when he fills out, but the inability to hit right-handed pitching is a major concern that will have to be addressed, perhaps by having him give up switch-hitting if it doesn't improve. On tools alone, Hicks is a top-5 prospect in the game, and I still expect him to become a star, but there's some risk here and I can understand why the Twins are taking it a little slow with him.

The worst thing the Twins could do with Hicks would be to rush him before he's ready. At worst, he develops inescapable bad habits and is ruined for good -- as Carlos Gomez was. At best, he successfully adapts at the major league level, and finally hits his stride in time to get expensive in arbitration and then leave as a free agent -- as in the final hope for Delmon Young.

29: Miguel Angel Sano/Jean

The Twins signed him as a 16 year old out of the Dominican Republic -- other teams were scared off by the fact that his age could not be verified and he's a little bit too big and strong to realistically be that young.

Sano won't turn 18 until May, but his hitting tools would make him a top-five pick if he were just coming out of an American high school, with consideration for the top overall spot. He's a natural hitter, with very good balance and plus bat speed, and there will be power not too far down the road because he gets great leverage from his lower half.

He has started to fill out quickly and is big enough that there's zero chance he remains at shortstop. And despite a 70 or better arm, there's a rapidly declining chance he sticks at third base, because he easily could end up at 240 pounds or more by the time he's in his mid-20s. He is a below-average runner but is agile enough that he'll work out somewhere in the field, perhaps right field because of his arm strength, and his bat will profile anywhere he plays, with average and potentially big-time power.

It's way too early to say what kind of a player Sano/Jean will turn out to be. He could get fat and become useless, like Dayan Viciedo did for the White Sox. He could get fat and become marginal, like Pablo Sandoval did for the Giants. Or he could stay in shape and develop his bat, and in a few years we could be talking about him as the next Jason Heyward. There's a huge, exciting range of possibilities here.

But the best thing about Sano/Jean, in my mind, is that he seems to mark the start of a trend -- one continued by the aggressive pursuit and signing of Nishioka -- of targeting and acquiring top international talent. This is currently the best way to spend money, and the Twins are doing it.

32: Kyle Gibson

Gibson had a fracture in his forearm in college that hurt his draft status; he was supposed to be a top-10, maybe top-5, draft pick but slipped all the way to the Twins. The injury was supposedly not caused by pitching, didn't indicate a problem with his delivery, and the doctors claimed he should fully recover. That appears to have happened, because Gibson has been dynamite on the mound and is close to major-league ready.

Gibson is not the exciting top-of-the-rotation type of arm that most pitchers this high on the list represent, but he is extremely high-probability and could pitch above the level of his stuff because of his command and feel. He will show three solid-average pitches most nights and pounds the strike zone with all three. His fastball tops out at 94 mph or so, but his slider flashes above average and he can get ground balls with both pitches, keeping the ball out of the air on 57 percent of balls he allowed in play in 2010.

Gibson is tall and still looks like he could pack some weight on his shoulders, perhaps adding a mile an hour or two to the fastball, and his arm action is easy and repeatable, which probably explains a lot of his above-average command and control. He is a midrotation starter with a No. 2 ceiling but is so close to major league-ready that he should get the call in 2011 and could have an effect down the stretch.

Another reason for Nick Blackburn to look over his shoulder? The worst thing about Gibson is that he's going to make that Blackburn contract look foolish even sooner. Not Gibson's fault.

71: Ben Revere

A surprise first-round pick -- at the time, most teams had him going in the second or third round -- Revere has both proven the Twins right to be interested in him and been somewhat disappointing as a prospect. I think he represents the epitome of the organization's love of slap-hitting speedsters.

Revere is a major league-ready center fielder with a chance to hit for average and add value through baserunning, despite having two below-average tools.

Revere is a 70-80 runner who covers a ton of ground in center through his speed, and his reads have improved substantially over the three-plus years he's been in the Twins' organization. He still has a well below-average arm that will probably require middle infielders to head into short center for cutoff throws, but the added range Revere provides should compensate. At the plate, Revere's swing is as short as it gets, slappy and flat, and the way he meets the ball out front means he won't have power, but he has good hand-eye coordination and will make enough contact to have value as a hitter.

I don't see Revere as a star, but that kind of defense makes him a valuable regular.

After seeing him "play," I'm a little down on Revere. I disagree with Law about his defense -- he takes routes to fly balls at least as bad as Gomez did, can barely make up for it with his speed, and can barely make the throw back to the infield. His upside seems to me like it's a poor-man's Juan Pierre. So if the Twins can find some team that's into that, I'd love to see what they could get in a trade for Revere, who has the pedigree of a top prospect.

74: Oswaldo Arcia

A 19 year old outfielder, I hadn't heard of this guy until early in the 2010 season when he was absolutely destroying every pitch he saw. Seriously, he batted .375/.424/.672 in 2010, with 21 doubles, 7 triples, and 14 homers in just 283 plate appearances. He's been splitting his time between CF and RF, and hasn't made an error in two years (for what that's worth).

Talk about a guy coming out of nowhere. Arcia screwed up one of his knees in an on-field collision and missed a chunk of the 2009 season, but tore apart the Appalachian League this past year and has jumped onto the pro scouting radar.

Arcia has a very classic left-handed swing and nearly mimics it from the right side, although he did most of his damage (.398/.455/.760) hitting left-handed. The raw power is enormous, again better left-handed, where it's to all fields. He's a 55-60 runner who won the Twins over by improving his conditioning while rehabbing the knee, and he has a plus arm to let him stay in right field once he outgrows center.

The Twins have developed a lot of players in recent years, but not many with this kind of raw power and overall ceiling.

Obviously he's a long way away, but if he does in 2011 what he did in 2010, he'll be one of the top prospects in the game and, along with Aaron Hicks, will give the Twins a future outfield to drool over.

And that's the end of our trip through the cream of the farm's crop. I am a little surprised that Tsuyoshi Nishioka didn't make the cut -- I wonder if that's because Law doesn't consider him a prospect since he's never played in the minor leagues or because he's not nearly as young as the other guys, or if it's because he is considered a prospect and Law simply doesn't think he's one of the 100 best.

I would think Nishioka would be ranked somewhere between Gibson and Revere if he were to be included in the list, which leaves the Twins in a pretty strong position -- bear in mind, though, that I'm foolishly excited about Nishioka.

Sometimes it's fun to eagerly await the future, rather than be bogged down by the crushing reality of the present. Who knows what the team will look like when Sano/Jean, Hicks, and Arcia ascend -- but if a few things break right and their development continues as we hope it will, it could restock the Twins' core of stars just in time.

And it's worth pointing out that all of these guys are pretty new to the system -- if the front office can continue to add potential stars to the minor leagues at the same rate they have been for the last couple of years, through drafting and (especially) international signings, then the Twins will continue to be mentioned as one of the models of how an organization should be run.

The most uninteresting man in the world

2011-01-27T00:00:00-08:00

Last year, Rob Delaney pitched 80 innings at AAA, and struck out 92 batters. His 10.4 K/9 ratio ranks among the best in the entire Twins system. His 2.6 BB/9 ratio is excellent given that high strikeout rate. But he gave up too many hits, at a 9.2 H/9 rate, and it drove his ERA to 4.72; while I've watched Delaney and been excited by his 4.93 K/BB ratio in the minors, and his ability to regularly top 10 K/9 (he's done that at every level of the minors), the Twins have apparently been turned off by ... something. Maybe it's his ERA, or his win-loss record, or maybe they see something in his delivery and don't think he's for real.

They finally called him up to the majors, and they let him pitch one inning. He didn't do well: 1 inning, 2 hits, 1 homer, 1 run, 1 walk, 0 strikeouts. Obviously, that sample size is as small as it gets, and I wouldn't consider it wise to make a decision based on a single inning.

The Twins, though, designated Delaney for assignment yesterday, to make room on the 40-man roster. It's possible -- but I personally think it's unlikely -- that Delaney will pass through waivers and remain with the organization. The Twins had to be willing to risk losing Delaney in order to acquire the guy they did, so ideally it'd be worth that risk.

Dusty Hughes spent 2010 in Kansas City, earning the major league minimum. I suppose that's the generous way to describe his contribution to the Royals. He pitched 56 innings, with 5.4 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, and 9.4 H/9; that all added up to an unsustainably non-descript 3.83 ERA.

In his final year at AAA, his numbers were little better. 81 innings, 7.8 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 8.1 H/9, and a 3.50 ERA. His career K/BB ratio in the minor leagues is 2 K/BB, but that's trended steadily downward as he's ascended through the ranks, bottoming at 1.7 K/BB in his two years at AAA -- still better than the 1.42 K/BB he had in the majors in 2010.

Here's what Rany Jazayerli had to say about Dusty Hughes in his Royals Report Card:

Probably the easiest grade on the entire roster. Everything about Dusty Hughes deserves a C grade, starting with the fact that he somehow spent the entire season on the roster without really making an impression on anyone.

He pitched in 57 games for the Royals, but judging from the way they used him, you’d think the only reason he was on the roster was because the Royals were too embarrassed to go without a lefty somewhere in their bullpen, and, well, Hughes was just standing there, so…

He wasn’t used in high-leverage situations at all; just eight times in those 57 games did he pitch in a situation where his “Leverage Index” was 2 or more, and just twice after the All-Star Break. He was kinda used as a lefty specialist, but not really – he faced right-handed batters 54% of the time. He was kinda effective against left-handed hitters, but not really – they batted .260/.351/.323 against him.

Hughes wasn’t bad, not really – he gave up a ton of baserunners (88 in just 56 innings), but minimized the damage by allowing just three homers. But he wasn’t good either. He wasn’t really anything. He was just there.

More power to him that he earned a full year’s worth of a major-league salary, and got a big contribution to his pension. But unless he takes a significant step forward – the easiest path being that he starts throwing more strikes – his job security is almost non-existent. I don’t know what Dusty Hughes really does for the Royals.

This is a particularly non-exciting move.

There are two things about Dusty Hughes that are the least bit interesting: he has an arm, and it's on the left side of his body.

While the Twins are currently desperate for bullpen arms, it'd be tough to find one more mediocre than this. Plus, they have Glen Perkins available as a lefty out of the pen; I know they don't like him, but is the plan to have him rot in AAA forever? Is he worse than Dusty Hughes? They also have Brian Duensing, who is fighting for a spot in the rotation but may ultimately find his best success in the bullpen. Is Hughes good enough to mix into the bullpen with Jose Mijares and Duensing? Is it more important to have three bullpen lefties, or to have as many talented arms as possible?

And that's what I have against the move; the only real complaint about it besides "this is pointless."

In their effort to bolster their collection of relievers, they risked losing a potentially-talented right handed reliever who could have helped them this year. In return, they got a decidedly-not-talented left handed reliever who could conceivably help them this year -- if by "help" you mean "turn a two run deficit into a four run deficit thirty or forty times." He certainly shouldn't pitch in close games; even the Royals knew that.

Will Dusty Hughes make the 25 man roster? Probably not. And if Delaney passes through waivers, this move will be promptly forgotten.

But ... I just don't see the point of doing it in the first place.

Pavano, and the possibility of trading strikeouts for ground balls

2011-01-24T00:00:00-08:00

There are a few reasons to be concerned about giving Carl Pavano a multi-year contract -- among them his age, injury history, and low rate of striking people out -- but this article over at Fangraphs makes me wonder if there's hope that Pavano could reverse his recent trend toward contact inducement. The article points out that while Pavano's strikeout rate is dangerously low and getting lower, the decline in strikeouts was met by a corresponding jump in groundballs.

Almost across the board his pitches have higher GB% and lower whiff (swinging-strike) rates. The only exception is his four-seam fastball had slightly higher whiffs in 2010. Swinging strikes and ground balls generally trade off, but it is interesting to see to play out so clearly for one player from year to year.

The difference is the most striking with Pavano’s slider which went from 37.5% GBs in 2009 to 59.2% in 2010, accompanied by a decrease in whiff rate (per pitch) from 12% to 10%. It looks to me that this was caused by location in the strike zone.

One of the tenets of modern baseball analysis is that pitchers have very little control over balls in play -- that's why most people were so sure that Pavano's 5.10 ERA in 2009 would drop significantly once his .329 BABIP dropped. Sure enough, in 2010 his BABIP was only .281 and his ERA went down to 3.75 despite shockingly identical FIP (4.00 vs 4.02) and xFIP (3.96 vs 4.01).

My question is, was his improvement from 2009 to 2010 merely a coincidence, or did he have some control over the decline in BABIP? Chiefly, he knew coming into 2010 that he'd have a significantly improved infield defense behind him, with Orlando Hudson and JJ Hardy manning the middle infield. Did Pavano consciously trade swings-and-misses for weak-contact-inducement?

As with most of my musing, there's no way to know Pavano's intentions. But there are a few ways to look at the Pavano prism moving forward. One way is to assume that he didn't actively try to shape his K/9 vs GB%, that his skills are declining as he ages, and he was fortunate enough to run into a 50-point drop in BABIP that made people think he's a top-of-the-rotation workhorse. If that's what you think, you're probably terrified about what's going to happen to him as the middle infield behind him switches from the excellent Hardy/Hudson combo to the giant question mark that is Casilla/Nishioka.

On the other hand, if you think he tried to trade strikeouts for ground balls in 2010, then presumably you think he could reverse that trend in 2011 if he saw a need to. And given that giant question mark behind him in the infield, maybe he'll see a need to trade ground balls back into strikeouts.

The important thing for the Twins is that Pavano stays healthy enough to throw 200 innings at a Scott-Baker-like 4.00 FIP/xFIP. How he gets there isn't crucial to the bottom line, but I think it could be an interesting thing to watch.

So as the 2011 season progresses, I'll be watching Pavano's BABIP but perhaps even more tellingly, his K/9 and GB%. If his K/9 stays around 4 and his GB% stays above 50%, then he hasn't been able to adjust back to his previous ways (whether he tried to or not).

Tell me in the comments, what are your thoughts? Do you think Pavano tried to make the strikeouts-for-grounders trade? Would such a trade be possible? Was it a good idea in 2010, and would it be a good idea to trade back in 2011?

Nick Punto Won't Return? The End of an Era

2011-01-21T00:00:00-08:00

Since arriving in 2004, even more than his on-the-field production, Nick Punto's main contribution to the team and its fans has been that he has represented the Minnesota Twins to the world.

When I say represented, I mean it in a good way, I think. Nick Punto has embodied the Twins' Platonic ideal of what a position player should be; high-effort, high-hustle, defensive-minded, versatile, singles hitter who values a high batting average at the expense of walks and extra base hits. Nick Punto has also been a metaphor for the team's success over the past several years; outmatched on paper by superior teams with higher payrolls, with virtues that seem to exist but can't (yet?) be quantified, but somehow competitive year in and year out.

I've given Punto more than his fair share of grief over the years. My thinking had been along the lines of what a utility player like Punto is worth to a team -- for a good team with a high payroll and many good players and the expectation of contending, a good utility guy is worth a lot more than he would be to a team with a low payroll and a smaller collection of good players. If Punto is the fifth-most important player on your team, then you have a bad team; if Punto is the tenth-most important player, then you have a good team.

And I always thought that the Twins could have spent Punto's salary better in other places, when they had smaller payrolls and dollars were scarce. Now that the team has more revenue and a higher payroll, I naturally assumed that bringing back Punto was essentially a no-brainer. Not only could the team clearly afford it, but he has fans among his teammates and the coaching staff and the media and the fanbase. Joe Christensen points out that that assumption appears to be faulty:

Punto is still a free agent, but from all indications, the Twins won't be bringing him back.

What?

There are a few options, as I see it, to explain what the Twins may be thinking.

Nick Punto is over the hill, and/or his performance will drop below what they have come to expect from him
The performance gap between Punto and Tolbert will be smaller than the salary gap, and they're making a value play
They simply can't afford it
They disagree with my premise that a utility player is more valuable to a high-payroll team and don't think they need him any more
They are signalling that they are adjusting their vision of the ideal ballplayer -- throwing out the mold, if you will

The Twins would have you believe that the issue is money, and they cannot afford Punto's services:

With a projected Opening Day payroll of $113 million, they insist they have reached their limit. Insiders say Carl Pavano's contract actually pushed them over budget, requiring special approval from CEO Jim Pohlad.

On the other hand, Christensen asserts that "even if it meant taking a sizeable pay cut, Punto would be thrilled to return," though he doesn't provide a source. Maybe Punto told him as much directly, and maybe he didn't. The sizeable paycut angle, I think, bashes a crowbar against the kneecaps of both the performance/salary gap theory and the overall can't-afford-it theory, regardless of what ownership claims about how broke they are.* If they wanted Punto and could get him at a significant paycut from $4M, they'd do it.

* Am I falling into the trap of thinking that now that Target Field is open, the Twins have virtually unlimited funds? I haven't seen their revenue numbers, but they've stated that team payroll will remain pegged to 52% of revenue as it was when they played in the Metrodome. Maybe it really is true that $110M or so is the payroll limit, and they've gone above it. I don't think I believe that, but it's certainly possible.

That leaves the theories that involve the Twins no longer wanting Punto around.

So, which is it? Is Punto over the hill, and the Twins don't think he's good any more? Do they not think they need a solid utility man, and can get by with a lesser one? Or have they changed their idea of the quintessential Twin, and are moving in a different direction?

I don't think it's possible to know that. Bill Smith certainly isn't going to come out and explain it for us.

Regardless of the reasons, though, if Nick Punto doesn't return to the Twins it sure feels like the end of an era.

Is re-signing Pavano a good idea?

2011-01-06T00:00:00-08:00

Well, that is a loaded question. For three years it isn't, but foxsports.com's Ken Rosenthal is reporting the Twins are closing in on a two year deal. I am actually OK with this. Without Pavano the rotation looks like Liriano-Baker-Duensing-Blackburn-Slowey. Next on the depth chart is probably Manship. Those top 5 are injury or badness-prone. Adding depth is almost necessary, whether or not it is Pavano is up for debate, but any Twins fan who is totally comfortable with that top 5 has some serious issues. I don't think Pavano can repeat his 2010, but if we can get anything close, I say go for it. I'd hate for them to sit on the money saved on Hardy, and if they pull the trigger on this it looks like they won't.

Do you want the Twins to keep Pavano, even if it takes a multi-year deal? If not, what should the money be spent on? Bullpen help? A different starting pitcher? Should the front office use this apparent lack of depth to give Kyle Gibson a shot? What say you?

Thinking about the value of relievers, and building a bullpen

2010-12-29T00:00:00-08:00

There's been a lot of talk about bullpens, and how to build them. The general consensus seems to be that signing relief pitchers to expensive multi-year contracts is a bad idea: Dave Cameron points out that the setup men who have signed 3+ year deals since 2006 have combined for +0.1 WAR, which is not what their teams wanted when they signed them.

And so, while the loss of Jesse Crain to the White Sox and Matt Guerrier to the Dodgers has gutted the Twins' bullpen and generated much trepidation among fans, both of them got three year deals and it was probably wise for the Twins not to match their salary offers even if they could have afforded it.

But if you're not acquiring relievers on the free agent market once they've demonstrated success at the major league level, where do they come from? I would think the cheapest, highest-value way to go is to generate them internally, and the Twins have certainly tried that, rolling out Jeff Manship, Alex Burnett, Pat Neshek, Anthony Slama, Rob Delaney, and other home-grown relievers. Of course, none of them looked very good in 2010, and the Twins may not want to trust them as the core of the bullpen in 2011.

The only other options, then, are grasping at castaways from other teams, guys that other teams have tried before and didn't like what they saw -- that's how the Twins got Matt Guerrier, so it's possible to find good pitchers in this pool. But it's also where they got Randy Flores and myriad other nobodies; there's just as much uncertainty here as there is in the home-grown group, perhaps even more.

Finally, you can make trades to bolster your relief corps. That seems to be the direction the Twins are going, as they reject the high price tags on free agent relievers.

Relievers the Twins have recently acquired:

Chuck James, minor league deal. From the Braves. Had rotator cuff surgery in 2008.
Paul Bargas, traded from the Rockies for Jose Morales.
Brett Jacobson, traded from the Orioles for Hardy/Harris.
Jim Hoey, traded from the Orioles for Hardy/Harris.
Brian Fuentes, traded from the Angels for Loek Van Mil.
Randy Flores, picked up off waivers.
Matt Capps, traded from the Nationals for Wilson Ramos.
Clay Condrey, minor league deal.
Chris Province, traded from the Red Sox for Boof Bonser.
Ron Mahay, traded from the Royals.
Jon Rauch, traded from the Diamondbacks for Kevin Mulvey.

That's 8 relievers acquired in trade, 3 castaways picked up off waivers or on a minor league contract, and 0 free agents.

What strikes me is the disparity in the cost of these relievers, on the trade market. Rauch is a serviceable arm, and Kevin Mulvey ... isn't much to give up. Chris Province may be nobody, but Boof Bonser had absolutely no value by the time the Twins let him go. Brian Fuentes is a good pitcher, certainly has value in the late innings, and Loek Van Mil's shot at ever making it to the big leagues is a pretty tall order.

On the other cheek, though, are the guys who required legitimate players to acquire. Capps is overrated by his save totals and was only a half-season removed from a 5.80 ERA, and he netted top catching prospect Wilson Ramos. Paul Bargas is an interesting choice, but he's only 21 years old and in Single-A; the Twins gave up a pretty good backup catcher in Jose Morales. Jacobson/Hoey are giant question marks: Jacobson is 23 years old and still down in Single-A, Hoey has put up big strikeout numbers in the minors that didn't translate into the majors even before his arm exploded. And the Twins had to surrender above-average shortstop JJ Hardy in order to get them.

This analysis, however, has ignored the effect of money on trade valuations. The Twins took on Rauch's salary from the Diamondbacks, so they didn't have to give up much in terms of players. The same is true of Brian Fuentes, who was virtually free when it came to prospects because the Angels were looking to cut a couple of millions dollars off their books and the Twins were deafened by the sound of cash registers ringing in the first year of Target Field.

Meanwhile, the Twins were able to cut about $8M off their payroll by throwing Hardy & Harris to the winds, and that drastically reduced what they could expect in return. Still, Hardy is currently projected to be worth around $12M in 2011, so the Twins sent as much as $4M in surplus value to the Orioles -- that value will come back only if either Hoey or Jacobson turns into a solid bullpen option at some point, which is possible but unlikely.

Capps was in the middle of a $3.5M contract when the Twins traded for him, and the Nationals sent $0.5M along as part of the deal. So he probably cost the Twins between $1.5M and $2M, and with the focus on all those saves and desperation sinking in as Rauch struggled, that probably seemed like it was far less than he was worth. The illusion of a huge amount of surplus value is probably what helped drive the prospect-cost up, but even at the time there was no conceivable way for Capps to produce enough value in half a season as to be worth losing a valuable prospect like Wilson Ramos.

When I started this, I thought I'd conclude that the cost of relievers in the trade market was rising rapidly, to match the inflated cost of relievers on the free agent market. That doesn't seem to be the case, though. The Capps trade was a bad move, and while Hardy brought back an underwhelming haul that was because that was effectively a salary dump.* Beyond that, these trades have not been expensive in terms of players.

* In the end, I think that's what bothers me most about the Hardy trade. In just a few short months, the Twins' attitude transformed from "sure, we'll take on Fuentes' salary ... did you know this money was printed on trees?" to "we can't afford any free agents, we can't afford to keep our own players, and we need to save money by dumping the guy we were all excited about last winter." The payroll ballooned quickly, but in the scheme of things it didn't take long for the Twins to return to the tepid, penny-pinching days of old. Trading for Hardy in the first place was representative of the expanding budget, and trading him away is representative of the wallet suddenly slamming shut.

With the departure of most of the bullpen this offseason, Bill Smith set his focus on rebuilding a relief corps. He's made a series of small moves to inject talented arms into the mix, putting the team in position to hope that at least a few of them pan out; that's really all you can do with relievers anyway, and Smith has wisely decided that it's better to give guaranteed dollars to players who can give you more predictable performance.

Are the Twins cost-cutting, or is there a method to their madness?

2010-12-27T00:00:00-08:00

We here at hitting the foul pole have been pretty busy lately, that is why we haven't posted in over a month. Obviously a lot has gone on since Thanksgiving. The team successfully bid on, and signed infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, traded JJ Hardy for two minor league relief pitchers, let Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier leave to sign 3 year contracts, we picked up someone named Scott Diamond in the Rule V draft, and Carl Pavano is still on the market. Oh, and Joe Mauer had minor knee surgery.

I still find myself upset at the Hardy trade. When healthy, he was one of the top shorstops in the AL (if not all of Major League Baseball), so he deservedly was due a raise. All estimates I have seen were that he would be bumped up to the 7-8 million dollar range. According to Fangraphs he was worth 9.5 million, ais projected to be worth 12.8 next season. I'm not math whiz, but if we can get12.8 million for 7 or 8, that is a pretty good deal. Color me confused.

So not only did we trade an excellent SS, we let Hudson walk. I have no problem with that move, but by getting rid of both middle infielders and replacing them with two giant question marks in Nishioka and Casilla seems the Twins are taking an unneccessary risk. My guess is Bill Smith and co will use this money to attempt to retain Pavano. Which apparently will require three years.

MISTAKE!!!

In what universe is giving a pitcher with an extensive injury history on the wrong side of 30, a good idea? Oh, and coming off a career year? Does anyone really think Pavano can repeat 2010 once, let alone thrice?

The Hardy trade did net us two relief pitchers, one of which might be able to contribute in 2011. The bullpen is a freaking disaster right now, so I guess any help will come in handy. There are definitely some internal candidates such as Delaney, Slama, Burnett, and Manship, and bounceback years from Nathan and Neshek would be welcome surprises. Re-signing Jon Rauch is also an option if the price is right, but for someone who had 20+ saves last year it won't be. What I'm trying to say, is the bullpen could be OK if everything swings our way, which obviously won't happen. I'm not saying we should have handed three year contracts to Crain and/or Guerrier, but it is unfortunate that they both became prized free agents at the same time.

According to my twitter feed, I'm not the only one who has been discouraged by the offseason moves so far. Let's hope once the calendar turns to 2011, Bill Smith and his brain trust make some moves to solidify the relief corps, and add depth to the bench.

Who is Tsuyoshi Nishioka?

2010-11-17T00:00:00-08:00

There have recently been several reports that Japanese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka will be posted by his current team, the Chiba Lotta Marines, and that the Twins are expected to bid on him.

Posting Process

The path Japanese players have to take to make it over the Pacific can be confusing. While a Japanese team controls a player's rights, they have the option of "posting" him, once he's amassed a certain amount of playing time. (That's why Japanese stars don't make it over to the MLB until they're no longer young.) If the player's contract runs out, he can simply enter MLB free agency and sign with whatever team he wants -- the posting process allows the Japanese team to get money back for a departing player,* and allows the MLB team to negotiate exclusively with the player without having to worry about competition. And yes, that does seem like a very pro-franchise arrangement, which basically screws the Japanese players.

* It's not like they can get draft pick compensation when they lose a star player, like MLB teams can.

The MLB team with the winning bid gets the right to negotiate exclusively with the player. No other MLB team can sign him, or even make an offer. If the player signs a contract, then the MLB team pays the amount of their winning bid to the Japanese team; if the player does not sign, then no money changes hands between teams and the player stays with his Japanese team.

So the question is: who is Tsuyoshi Nishioka, how much should the Twins bid for him, and what kind of contract should he expect to sign?

Tsuyoshi Nishioka

Listed at 5'11" and 176 pounds, Nishioka is big for a Japanese middle infielder, but not compared to MLB infielders -- JJ Hardy, for example, is 6'2" and 200 pounds.

Nishioka is naturally right handed, and after hitting left handed as an amateur he became a switch hitter upon becoming a professional. He primarily plays shortstop, where his range, apparently, ranks among the Japanese elite; he also has quick reflexes, soft hands, and a strong throwing arm that combine to make him a tantalizing prospect.

In his career, Nishioka has batted .293/.364/.426 in 3111 AB through age 25, including a .346/.423/.482 line in 2010 that won him his first batting title. In addition to leading the league this year in batting average, he also led in games played (144), runs scored (121), hits (206), and total bases (287). Leading the league in games played is promising, since prior to 2010 he'd developed a reputation as injury-prone.

In his younger days he was a speedster, leading the league with 41 steals at age 20 and 33 at age 21, but since then his stolen base totals have dropped into the 20's as his homers have jumped from 3-4 per season up to 11-14 per season.

I don't know how to make the translation between the NPB and MLB, but I've read elsewhere that Japanese baseball is similar to AAA, maybe a little better. Perhaps Nishioka could be expected to hit between .280 and .310, with moderate pop, good speed, and an OBP around .340 to .360 with an SLG around .400, which would make him an excellent offensive shortstop, to go along with elite defense. At just 26 years old, Nishioka could be a pretty valuable commodity.

Contract

Nishioka seems like he has the potential to be an elite major league player -- Yahoo Sports asks if he's the next Ichiro -- and would fill an important spot in the middle of the infield and the top of the lineup, as well as inject some much-needed speed into the Twins' offense.

I don't have a great nose for how teams value players these days, so take this estimate with a grain of salt. But Nishioka seems like he could easily be a 3+ WAR player. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the winning bid exceed $15M, even $20M, and the value of his contract could exceed the posting fee.

Don't Get Your Hopes Up

Will the Twins end up getting Tsuyoshi Nishioka? Probably not. There are too many variables, and it would probably cost too much for a team that, despite jumping up into the large-payroll stratosphere, has serious payroll considerations this year.

Nishioka has stated he'd prefer to play on the West Coast -- that doesn't matter in the posting process, but could make it more difficult to agree to a contract if the Twins win the bidding. Plus, the Red Sox are expected to bid too, and in addition to their deeper pockets, they also have the necessary Japanese translation infrastructure that the Twins lack.

But it's exciting to see the Twins in on a potentially impactful young star from around the globe. And it sure would be fun to be able to root for a guy who looks like he popped right out of an old Japanese video game.

And if you really want to like the guy, watch this commercial.

Buyer's Remorse? Joe Mauer Edition

2010-11-12T00:00:00-08:00

Joe Mauer's 8 year, $184M extension was the crowning achievement of Bill Smith's excellent offseason last winter. It was the fourth-largest contract ever bestowed upon a baseball player, but it was more than that. It was the hometown hero getting locked up through his prime and into his twilight years. It was the golden boy making good. It was validation of every schoolboy's dream, that he can one day star for his favorite team. It was a symbol of the Twins emerging from the mid-market doldrums, announcing that they can compete with the big boys dollar-for-dollar, and actually hang onto their players once they become expensive stars.

This week, Mauer won his third Gold Glove and his fourth Silver Slugger. When you're voted the best hitter and fielder at your position, well, let's just say that puts you in the upper echelon of the league. Elite, if you will. So, why have I been getting this feeling, lately, that the Twins are going to come to really regret this contract?

Maybe it's the fact that the Twins locked him up after his otherworldly 2009 season, when he hit .365/.444/.587, leading the league in all categories to win the "Modern Triple Crown." I'm not crazy enough to think that he's going to be able to repeat that performance again, ever. But the contract pays him as if he's going to do that every year until he's 36.

According to Baseball-Reference, Mauer dropped from a 7.9 WAR in 2009* to 5.6 in 2010. By Fangraphs' estimation, he dropped from an 8.0 WAR in 2009 to 5.1 in 2010. Was 2010 the outlier, or was 2009?

* Strangely, Baseball-Reference pegged Mauer at 8.7 WAR in 2008, when he his .328/.413/.451 ... rating the season in which he posted a 134 OPS+ as nearly a full win better than the one he posted a league-leading 170 OPS+. Fangraphs had him at 5.7 WAR that same year. I like WAR as a statistic, but they're going to have to iron this sort of thing out. That's a massive gap, no?

Well, Mauer's Fangraphs WAR by season: 1.2, 3.5, 5.9, 3.2, 5.7, 8.0, 5.1. His Baseball-Reference WAR by season: 1.5, 3.4, 7.0, 4.6, 8.7, 7.9, 5.6.

The way Fangraphs puts it, Mauer's 2009 is a massive outlier, the one time in seven years that he bested even 6 WAR. Baseball-Reference is more generous, saying he was better than 7 WAR in three of seven seasons. I don't know which one is "right," but the fact that they disagree so heavily doesn't exactly fill me with confidence.

If Mauer can continue to post a 7+ WAR season almost 50% of the time, he'll be worth that contract -- as long as the Twins are competitive the entire time. But if he's only going to be a 5 WAR player, as Fangraphs indicates, then he's already significantly overpaid, and the situation will only get worse as he ages and inevitably declines. And he wouldn't be worth anywhere close to this kind of money if he weren't a top defensive catcher.

"There will be a point where I'm not going to be able to play there anymore," said Mauer of his catching responsibilities, during a conference call to talk about his Gold Glove award. "But I hope I don't have to worry about this for a long time."

A typically diplomatic response from the staid Mauer, and maybe the question shouldn't even have been asked of him while he was celebrating a third consecutive Gold Glove. But everybody knows Gold Gloves are often undeserved. (I'm sure everyone reading this noticed that Mauer didn't exactly look like his awesome self of old behind the plate this year. This Gold Glove, I think, was won more in the past than in the present.)

Maybe, though, when you sign a contract like this, it's about more than just production on the field. You're signing a Face of your franchise, someone who represents the team, and the organization, and the fanbase. To a certain point, that guy, that Face, what he brings to the table goes beyond simply what he offers on the diamond. Joe Posnanski talked about this when he wrote about Derek Jeter's contract negotiation with the Yankees.

Everyone here knows how much I love Joe Mauer, but I’m not sure how ready he is for all the stuff that comes with being one of baseball’s biggest stars. I saw him really struggling with the media and his role as face of the franchise after his big contract — and that’s in Minnesota. It’s not anywhere close to as easy as people think.

I wish I could find the old Land o' Lakes commercial featuring Mauer; it seems to have been scrubbed from the internet. For good reason, too, if you're Mauer or his agent, or the Twins, or MLB. That video shows a Joe Mauer who is not ready to represent a baseball team, who cannot handle the role of leader under the bright lights that today's media shines.

In the end, I think that's what has been bugging me. Joe Mauer is an excellent baseball player, with all that that entails: times when you're up, and other times when you're down; good years and bad years; victories and defeats. But maybe when the contract is this big, well, maybe you're expecting more than just a baseball player. You expect someone superhuman, you expect good years without bad, victories without defeats. And you're not going to get it.

It's time, then, to adjust expectations. Mauer is an excellent baseball player, a guy who can post 5+ WAR seasons, a guy who can give you 130 OPS+ seasons year in and year out; he's not a superhero who can toss out 8 WAR, 170 OPS+ mega-seasons with any regularity. The only thing to do is enjoy it, hope he loosens up a bit in the limelight, hope he stays healthy, and hope his contract doesn't hamstring the Twins in the future.

That seems like a lot of hoping, for 184 million dollars.

Offseason Blueprint

2010-11-11T00:00:00-08:00

You know what was in vogue last week? Offseason blueprints! That's why we're finally getting around to one here at Hitting the Foul Pole, where you can always trust that we'll wait until something has gone slightly stale before taking a bite.

Many of the blueprints I've glanced at -- I haven't read all of them, mind you -- seem to assume that the Twins will be just as active this offseason as they were last winter. But last year, the Twins were reaping the rewards of entering the new stadium, and thus had a lot more money than usual to spend. Now that they're at (or above) their payroll limit, I'd guess that they'll be back to their normal behavior of looking to get adequate players on the cheap to replace the production of more expensive players.

Position Players

C: Joe Mauer
1B: Justin Morneau
2B: Alexi Casilla
3B: Danny Valencia
SS: JJ Hardy
LF: Delmon Young
CF: Denard Span
RF: Michael Cuddyer
DH: Jim Thome

I expect that the Twins will make an offer to Nick Punto, something along the lines of 2 years, $5M. I also expect, though, that someone else will find his particular skillset more valuable than that -- he is more valuable than that, especially to a team in the Twins' predicament, talent-wise. However, with the budget crunch, that money is better spent elsewhere. I think Punto's days with the Twins are probably over, and I'll have to make sure I write about that when it happens.

I also think it'd be a good idea to re-sign Jim Thome. The fans love him, the players love him; he seemed to have a good influence on the slower, stronger players on the team. He's said he'd love to come back, and Bill Smith has said the Twins would love to have him back. They'll find a way to make it work, probably in the $3-5M range.

JJ Hardy has been called a "non-tender candidate" by a lot of people -- and it's true that his production was disappointing in 2010 -- but I just don't see it. Even while he struggled, he was among the best shortstops in the American League. The only real gamble here is whether he'll be able to stay healthy; he probably won't, which means we'll see plenty of Trevor Plouffe in 2011.

Casilla can slide in and replace most of Orlando Hudson's production for 10% of the price -- but, as is always the case with Casilla, just because he can doesn't mean he will. Will we see the Casilla who posts a 95 OPS+ and makes dazzling plays, or the Casilla who posts a 45 OPS+ and botches routine plays? Nobody knows ... and this could be Casilla's last shot with the Twins. If he sucks this year, he could be gone.

I know a lot of people want to see Cuddyer gone. But his salary means that the Twins wouldn't get anything in a trade for him unless they ate most (or all) of his salary, and his good-but-not-great talent level means that even then, they wouldn't get much. Not to mention, by the way, that there's nobody who can really slide in and replace him. This will be Cuddyer's last season with the Twins, as Joe Benson and Aaron Hicks may move quickly through the system this year. But there's no feasible way -- or reason -- to get Cuddyer off the roster for 2011. (That said, I hate the fact that the Twins had to decide on his 2011 option before the 2010 season. If they had to decide on his option now, they could easily decline it and sign him to a smaller salary, and he'd take it.)

Bench

C: Jose Morales
IF: Matt Tolbert
OF: Jason Kubel
OF: Jason Repko

I hate Drew Butera, and Morales seems like the ideal backup catcher. I know that Butera will get the call in Morales' stead, but I don't care for it. Not even a little bit.

Tolbert is like the poor man's Punto. He's worse at every defensive position, he's even worse at the plate, and he hustles even more falsely. But he's a utility infielder who can fill in at all three infield positions, and every team needs one of those.

Kubel will be able to spell Young, Cuddyer, and Thome, and will get a ton of playing time -- probably more than Thome, actually. It's probably not even fair to put him on the bench. He needs a bounce-back season, and I don't think it's crazy to hope that he finds a happy medium between the "one of the best hitters in the league" of 2009 and the "sucks" of 2010.

Repko can do for the outfield what Tolbert can do for the infield. He can get hot and hit a little bit, but he can also go ice cold. But as a right handed batter who can pinch hit for one of the lefties in the lineup, or pinch run for one of the lumbering dinosaurs, or come in as a defensive replacement for anyone in the outfield, he's got value. And a spot on the roster.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Ben Revere called up in the second half of the year; he's not ready now, though.

Rotation

Francisco Liriano
Scott Baker
Kevin Slowey
Nick Blackburn
Brian Duensing

This is probably the spot that most fans want to see the most change, but I don't really see how it's going to happen. The Twins will definitely offer Pavano arbitration; he'll decline and take a multi-year deal elsewhere, because he's the best free agent pitcher not named "Cliff Lee" and has now put together a track record of kicking ass for a contending team. So long and thanks for all the fish; and draft picks.

I was a big pusher for Liriano in 2010 -- and after I made his Cy Young case, he decided to basically call it a season and suck in all the rest of his starts. So that was awesome. That said, he was excellent despite piss-poor luck. I'm guessing his luck will improve while his dominance slides a little bit, and his shallow numbers will look better in 2011 than they did in 2010.

Beyond Liriano, the rotation either looks fairly solid ... or like a total mess. I think it depends on which angle you look at it. Or which side of the bed you woke up on, or the phase of the moon. Something. Baker and Blackburn aren't going anywhere, as they're under contract (and haven't been good enough that some other team would be willing to trade for those contracts).

I think the Twins like Duensing, and they might as well keep riding him. He's not as good as his numbers, but on the other hand he's good enough to be an excellent fifth starter. (Which could get him a bunch of wins this season, making him an intriguing trade chip for next winter.)

There have been stories bouncing around that the Twins have soured on Kevin Slowey; something about not liking his attitude. I don't understand that at all, since he seems like exactly the sort of pitcher the Twins like (tons of strikes, no walks, lots of line drives and home runs), and he sure doesn't seem like an asshole -- not like Garza and Lohse, anyway. So if the Twins are going to make a move in the rotation, I guess it'd be to move Slowey and replace him somehow, but I bet they don't bother.

Bullpen

Joe Nathan
Matt Capps
Jesse Crain
Jose Mijares
Anthony Slama
Rob Delaney
Jeff Manship

Nathan will be back! His days of dominance are probably behind him, and he'll be a vastly overpaid figurehead; but you don't have to be awesome to be a Closer. The unholy combination of Jon Rauch and Matt Capps combined to convert just as many saves at the same rate as Joe Nathan At His Best would have. So it'll probably be nice to be able to hide Nathan in the 9th inning, where he can rack up easy saves like he did to earn that fat contract in the first place. It'll be a fun ride, with plenty of white knuckles and broken bottles.

I think Capps is a non-tender candidate, much more than Hardy is, but the Twins aren't even going to consider that. They gave up Wilson Ramos to get him, and part of their reasoning was that Capps was under team control for 2011. So they'll offer him arbitration, he'll make $6-8M, and he'll demonstrate once again that he's really not all that great. Having Capps in the 8th inning is another way to hide Nathan in the 9th -- leads that Nathan could have tried to protect will be pissed away before he has a chance. Brace yourself for a lot of "I hate Matt Capps" tweeting next year.

Mijares is good and cheap; Manship can do the job of a long reliever, and will be capable of sliding into the rotation when someone inevitably sucks (I'm looking at you, Blackburn) or gets injured (Slowey!). Other long relief options include Alex Burnett, Glen Perkins, and the newly acquired Eric Hacker ... all of whom make me want to go stand in the rain for a while.

The rest of the bullpen is tricky, though. The Twins have Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, Ron Mahay, and Brian Fuentes as pending free agents. Offering arbitration to any of them is dangerous, because they would probably make more money in arbitration than they would on the free agent market, especially those Type A free agents that would cost signing teams a draft pick.

You know what's funny about the draft pick compensation? That the picks are all the same, regardless of the relative talents of the players being signed or how big the contracts are. Carl Crawford and Cliff Lee are Type A free agents, but no team would blink an eye when surrendering a first round draft pick to get them; but a guy like Juan Cruz or Orlando Hudson or Orlando Cabrera can see their market value completely disappear by getting that scarlet A stapled to their chest.

Here's the thing: the surplus value of a draft pick in the second half of the first round is calculated to be $5.2M, by Victor Wang. When you're talking about signing a long term contract worth over $100M, that extra $5M you're giving up isn't a big deal. But when you're signing a guy for around $5M (because that's what he's worth), then it's basically crazy that you'd have to give up a first round pick for the right to do so -- it doubles what you have to pay, and gives a long term asset to a rival team.

This is made worse by the fact that the "Type A" system is totally broken: 12 of the 34 Type A free agents are relief pitchers.

The point is this: don't expect the Twins to get a bunch of draft picks in return for their departing relief corps. Guerrier has been used a lot -- I kind of expect his arm to fall off at any moment. Mahay sucks. Rauch sucks. If Fuentes gets an arbitration offer he's guaranteed to take it, since he'll make at least $9M from it.

The only interesting guy is Jesse Crain. He apparently believes he can get a look as a Closer somewhere; the Twins should offer him arbitration and tell him they fully support his search for a 9th inning job somewhere, and that if he doesn't find anything he's welcome to come back to the Twins on a 1-year or 2-year deal.

Conclusion

As you can see, I don't expect this to be a very active offseason. Everyone on the roster according to this blueprint was on the roster in 2010. Even still, the payroll would be well over $100M.

Bear in mind, this won't be a disaster for Twins fans, and it wouldn't be a failure by the front office. The Twins shot for the moon in 2010, and played three bad games at the wrong time. They can return most of that team for another shot in 2011, before it's time for another 2008/2009-style retooling.

Last winter was exciting, and gave Twins fans a taste of what the hot stove season is like when your team actually participates. Don't get used to it, though -- it's not going to happen every year. So sit back and watch the other teams fight, and wait for Spring Training. It gets closer every day!

The Offseason Sucks

2010-11-06T00:00:00-07:00

The world series has been over for a week or so, and I'm already going through baseball withdrawal. I've been thinking about what the Twins should do this offseason, as there are many pending free agents and options to deal with. The team already picked up Kubel's option, and declined Punto's. Both moves were pretty close to no-brainers.

The bullpen has the potential for big turnover. Rauch, Crain, Guerrier, Flores, Mahay, and Fuentes are all free agents. Crain should get pretty significant interest from other teams to be a closer. I'm sure the Twins will attempt to keep Crain, Guerrier, and Rauch, but they rightfully won't overpay. I hope.

Orlando Hudson also seems to be a goner. Per his contract the Twins cannot offer him arbitration, so he will most likely get a multi year offer form someone. One of my biggest concerns is who will play second base. I was pretty impressed with Trevor Plouffe in his limited time with the club in 2010. So I hope he gets a good look in spring training.

Another big question mark is Thome. He will definitely garner a lot of interest around the AL, and I hope the Twins make a run at him. However, with Morneau back, and the Kubel option already picked up, where would he get at bats?

Also, here is another thought to marinate: Trade Cuddyer and use the money to beef up the starting pitching. I think we should make a serious run at Josh Johnson, or (more realistically) Ricky Nolasco. Think about it.

What Do You Value in a Baseball Season?

2010-10-21T00:00:00-07:00

If you blinked, you may have missed the Twins' annual postseason beatdown at the hands of the Yankees. It sure happened in a hurry.

What might be the problem? According to this totally unscientific and probably biased poll, people think the two biggest factors are that they can't beat the Yankees, or that Gardy is the problem. It seems to me that if one of those is a problem, then they both are -- the only common threads between the Twins/Yankees at the beginning of the current streak of dominance and the Twins/Yankees today are the cities where the teams play (but not the stadiums), Gardy, and perhaps the amused attitude the media takes to the lovable small market peons that have the gall to even show up to the postseason.

If Gardy is the problem, then it's going to be a tough one to fix. Overall, Gardy is a good manager; probably one of the best in the game right now, especially over the course of the full season. He seems to understand the ebbs and flows of the season, and that today isn't necessarily as important as all the tomorrows -- for example, he pulled Kevin Slowey after seven no-hit innings, because the chance at a no-hitter on that day wasn't as important as Slowey's health for the rest of the season and for the rest of Slowey's career. This is the sort of attitude and behavior that will keep the clubhouse loose even when things are going badly, and will engender a feeling of trust among the players. That may well be the secret to Gardy's success as a manager.

However, he leaves a lot to be desired from an in-game, tactical perspective. Part of that is certainly that he's willing to sacrifice today to protect tomorrow. He won't bring in the closer for a 5-out save, because he wants the closer available tomorrow. He won't push back a struggling starter's spot in the rotation because he doesn't want to hurt his confidence. He'll leave a slumping hitter at the plate despite the platoon disadvantage. Over the course of the season, you'd think these tactical "mistakes" would add up; but it seems to me that Gardy's record suggests that either they don't add up to all that much, that it all pretty much evens out, or that the benefits of his approach outweigh the negatives.

Unfortunately, that approach doesn't apply nearly as well in the postseason. Once the playoffs start, tomorrow matters a whole lot less than today -- for one thing, there are fewer tomorrows; and perhaps more importantly, without today, there may not be any tomorrows at all. Each moment in the playoffs is magnified -- this is what the TBS and Fox announcers have repeated from their script hundreds of times so far in these playoffs. So the postseason minimizes Gardy's positive contributions, and maximizes the effects of his weaknesses. It's no wonder, then, that Gardy's teams have repeatedly struggled in the playoffs.

Now, I don't believe this explains why the Twins have lost 12 consecutive playoff games, or 9 straight to the Yankees. I do, however, see how it would explain why the Twins would lose each of these playoff series (especially combined with the fact that they were the lesser team in each case); it's not a far step from there, for small sample size flukes to turn four straight playoff series losses into four straight playoff series sweeps. It sucks, and it hurts every time -- each year, I've managed to convince myself that this time, somehow, it'll be different -- but what can you do about it?

Is firing Gardenhire an option? The Twins don't consider it to be one -- Bill Smith said extending Gardy's contract was "a no brainer" after the season ended -- and I tend to agree. Would the Twins have dominated the AL Central this decade with a different manager at the helm? Maybe, and maybe not. Would they have fared better in the playoffs, when or if they made it? Maybe, and maybe not. It's not really a fair question, nor is it even possible to answer.

Posnanski has talked in the past about following a team whose philosophy about the game differs from your own. The example he typically gives is that a statistically-minded fan, who believes that there's more to understanding the game than was etched in stone by the cigar-chomping fathers of baseball, can struggle to deal with rooting for a team that openly and proudly rejects progress; that when you as a fan believe that OBP is an important offensive statistic and the team you follow proudly runs out a lineup of sub-.300 OBP "hitters," it gets frustrating. It's a rough feeling.

I've had that feeling about the Twins, at times. They value a certain sort of player, a slap-hitting middle infielder with more hustle than talent, a guy who hits .300/.300/.300 (bats .300 but draws no walks and hits nothing but singles); meanwhile, I value a different sort of player, who may not have a .300 batting average but who will draw walks and take multiple bases when he gets a hit. They value a certain sort of pitcher, a strike-throwing machine who can hit his spots and minimize walks; I value a different sort of pitcher, who has movement on his pitches or who throws harder, and can generate strikeouts. The Twins and I have disagreed as to the source of their success: they have always believed it was due to those strike-throwers having a solid defense behind them, and I've always pointed out that when the team had an ERA among the league leaders, the pitching staff was also among the league leaders in strikeouts, and strikeout-to-walk ratio.

In this case, though, we're not talking about whether you agree with the team's philosophy on what makes a good baseball player, or even what wins games. This is a larger question, one that even more certainly has no "true," or "correct" answer. That question is: What do you value in a baseball season?

Seems simple, right? But I think you'll find that the answer is a bit more difficult to put your finger on than you might think. Do you value championships, above all else? Many fans would like to think that they do, but if that were true, they'd either be Yankee fans or perpetually unhappy -- there just aren't that many championships. Do you value postseason success; not necessarily winning championships, but competing strongly for them and getting close? That gives a little more leeway, but still, you're only enjoying baseball when your team is among the best in the league. Perhaps you enjoy the business side of baseball, wondering what you'd do differently if you were the GM -- what moves would you do differently, what sort of team would you build from this foundation? Or the tactical aspect of individual games -- if you were the manager, would you bring in that reliever now, or see if the starter can get a couple more guys? Like I said, there's no right answer, and I would think that most fans would answer in the affirmative to multiple of these examples.

Maybe, though, you value something else about a baseball season. Maybe you value the daily grind, getting to the ballpark or to your favored chair in front of the television, at the same time every day, to watch the games unfold in front of you. Maybe you enjoy watching the young players move up through the system, until they finally join the big club and you can see how they fit in and wonder what it's like in the clubhouse. Maybe you like the ups and downs of a long season -- the downs can feel so bad, and so dark, and you can wonder how this team could ever win a game ... but that only makes the ups seem so much brighter, that your team is on top of the world and cannot be stopped, that the summer is flying by in a blur of bats cracking, balls flying, brilliant moments, sunsets, and cheers. That is, maybe you value the season as a whole, moreso than any individual game, than any particular move, than how big is the trophy that the team gets at the end of it.

And by sticking with Gardy, I think that's what the Twins are saying that they value. It's not how you feel after the last game of the season; rather, it's how you felt through all the games.

Maybe mastering the long season prevents Gardy from performing in a short series where individual games mean everything. Maybe he just needs to learn a different way to manage, a different way to inspire the players, a different perspective that only comes into focus in the heat of the postseason. Maybe the playoffs are a complete crapshoot, and all this talk that Gardy "can't win" in the playoffs will dissolve like so much smoke in the wind once the Twins finally stop drawing the short straw once they get there.

Who knows? Myself, I value the 162 games that come first, considerably more than the 3 games that came last. And for once, the Twins seem to agree. It's a strange feeling, to agree philosophically with your team. A good feeling.

What do you value in a baseball season?

Capps, Crain, and Bullpen Roles

2010-09-30T00:00:00-07:00

Matt Capps joined the Twins on July 30, and pitched an inning for the save -- early on he had some struggles, blowing two of his first three save opportunities and allowing plenty of baserunners. But he's been solid, if unspectacular, assuming you're the sort of person who wouldn't make fun of him because his middle name is "Dicus."

With the Twins, Capps has a 2.08 ERA in 26 IP, with 16 saves in 18 chances. He's struck out 21, walked 8, and is holding batters to a .255/.314/.330 line which isn't bad.

Meanwhile Jesse Crain has emerged as a legitimate relief ace; during the same time period (since July 30), Crain has pitched 24.1 IP in 27 games, with a 1.48 ERA, 24 K, 13 BB,* and is holding batters to a phenomenal .175/.290/.213 hitting line. Seriously, opponents are slugging .213 against him.

* This is higher than I thought it would be, and I'm guessing it comes from two things. One, he recently had a stretch of 7 straight games in which he walked a guy. Two, he's been relying extremely heavily on his slider, and if the hitter lays off it there's a chance it misses the strike zone and gets a walk. The thing is, it's tough not to swing at that pitch.

Capps and Crain use their arsenals completely differently -- Capps is all fastballs all the time, while Crain has focused much more heavily on his breaking balls this year.

Capps throws his 94 MPH fastball 81.5% of the time, his slider 14.7% of the time, and his change is only thrown 3.8% of the time. Capps uses his fastball this way for good reason; his fastball is +2.07 runs per hundred pitches, while his slider is -1.04 and his change-up is listed at a "you should never throw this" -8.48 (seriously, the only way it can get that bad is if batters clobber it every time you throw it).

Meanwhile, Crain only throws his 94 MPH fastball 42.3% of the time, his slider comes in 46.2% of the time, his curveball 10%, and he throws his change just 1.4% of the time. Crain's fastball doesn't seem to be of the same quality as Capps', despite both averaging at least 94 MPH; it's only been worth -0.94 runs per hundred, while his slider is +3.05, his curve is +4.21, and his change is +3.22. Maybe Crain's offspeed stuff is simply nastier than Capps', maybe he has better command of it, maybe his fastball sets up his other stuff extremely well.

More subjectively, Capps comes right at you and even though he'll occasionally lose the battle and give up hits (especially when his BABIP sits at .319), his stuff is good enough to beat you. Crain keeps you more off balance, throwing mostly sliders and curveballs -- and he's talked about how his slider is really more like three different pitches, since he throws it at different speeds and with different breaks.

Considering all the numbers, I believe Crain is the better pitcher. But what does that say about their roles?

First, let's assume that one of the roles is going to be Closer. I don't think it necessarily should, but you know and I know that Gardy -- like most managers -- wants/needs to have a Closer sitting in the back of the bullpen. The ideal Closer is a guy like Mariano or Nathan, an elite pitcher who gets everybody out, blows them away, provides that nice warm feeling of confidence. That's the guy you want, but it's not always the guy you've got.

Since the Twins don't have that guy, who should they put there? The easy fallback answer is "best pitcher," but I've been railing for years that the best reliever shouldn't necessarily be the Closer, and I still believe it. One guy is going to allow more hits and more baserunners -- he's the guy who should come in with the bases empty, so the only runners he has to deal with are his own. One guy allows fewer hits and fewer baserunners and strikes out more batters -- he's the guy you should feel more confident dealing with other people's runners, in high-leverage situations that are not the 9th inning.

Rarely have I agreed with the way Gardy uses his bullpen; I'm the guy who thinks that a healthy Joe Nathan should be used the same way Crain is used now, and that the Fireman is a more valuable role than the Closer. But I hereby put the Seal Of Approval on the way Gardy's set up Capps and Crain in the bullpen. It gives the Twins their best chance to win.

The Twins Blogosphere as a Pitching Staff

2010-09-20T00:00:00-07:00

Late Monday afternoon, a tweet came fluttering to my attention, borne by the whispering aether that is the internet. It was brilliant in its simplicity, yet invited so much thought, I couldn't let it pass by un-considered.

What would a batting order of Twins blogs look like? @TwinkieTown

Now, perhaps it wasn't supposed to be some soft of profound question, cutting straight to the heart of the blogosphere. Perhaps its author was merely bored, waiting for the Twins game to start. Perhaps it doesn't matter one way or the other, as it happens, because once inspiration strikes the damage is done. It's much like lightning in that way.

Now, I personally didn't agree with the idea of a batting order. The idea of fitting together a pitching staff suited my fancy much better -- and since I was the one who was doing all the thinking about it, I figured I'd just go with it.

Take a walk with me, if you will, through the Twins blogosphere. And please do bear in mind that there are no right or wrong answers here -- even more so than usual, that is -- and there are no stats here. If you read all these blogs already, then you probably know even better than I do that this is all just so much nonsense. On the other hand, you might find a new blog to check out. And that would make the whole thing worthwhile.

Rotation

Ace: Aaron Gleeman

The veteran of the staff, and the most respected around the league -- most teams don't have an Ace like Gleeman. If effective writing is a fastball and statistical analysis is breaking balls, then Gleeman has pretty good stuff. And if wordcount says anything about how deep he can go into games, then he can give the bullpen a break pretty much every time out.

Second Starter: Seth Speaks

The second starter is Seth Stohs, who does excellent work with the Twins' farm system, produces a regular podcast, and is consistently interesting and thoughtful. You could do worse in a #2 starter. From what I can tell, he's also a go-to guy on Twitter when someone wants a question answered; he manages to combine a great understanding of the game with a significant following and, somehow, a lack of the arrogance that typically comes with people caring about what you think.

Third Starter: Nick's Twins Blog

Nick Nelson is so good his blog was picked up by the ESPN SweetSpot network, but he still writes about the Twins, so he's eligible to be on this team. Once again, consistent and thoughful: the Twins Blogosphere has a pretty good playoff rotation. He's got the good fastball, he has good command of his breaking stuff (stats), and he posts regularly.

Fourth Starter: Twinkie Town

This is a very active community blog. They have a sizable team of writers, constantly refreshing their page with new content. Seriously: they post several new articles every day. A lot of managers like to have an innings eater on staff, and that's what you'll get at Twinkie Town; guaranteed innings. So if you're feeling bored, feel free to go get sucked in.

Fifth Starter: Twins Geek

It's probably unfair to call John Bonnes of Twins Geek the fifth starter; he knows his baseball and can write a fair bit too. His penchant for coming up with interesting takes without getting too bogged down in esoteric numbers is refreshing, and he'll frequently whip out a good non-stats article to keep you on your toes. I originally had him anchoring the bullpen, but you can get more value out of a starter than you can out of a reliever. I think he'd appreciate that.

Bullpen

Closer: The WGOM

You don't need a closer every day -- though you'd like him to be available at any time -- but when you do need him you want him to have a blazing fastball, a biting slider, and a certain presence on the mound. You want stats? You want analysis? You want funny stories? You want to bring in this team of writers, led by StickAndBallGuy, to finish off the game for you.

Setup man: Over the Baggy

Graphs. Charts. Numbers. Good ideas. When you've got a narrow lead late in the game, those are the kinds of pitches that will maintain that lead. The author, Parker Hageman, "takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player's heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse." What I mean is, he has good command of his breaking ball.

LOOGY: A Fan's View

If you need to get a tough lefty, you don't necessarily need the biggest fastball or the most advanced numbers -- sometimes it's best to come at him from an angle he wouldn't expect. Howard Sinker writes for the Star Tribune, but he does it from the fan's perspective -- he's not a beat writer. Sometimes a little off the beaten trail, but he'll keep your spirits up when the team is getting you down.

Middle relief: k-bro's baseball blog

k-bro may not bring the stats as consistently as many other bloggers do, but don't take that as a criticism; if the entire blogosphere was all-stats-all-the-time, it'd be just as bad as the no-stats-ever Mainstream Old Guy Media that thinks blogs are just for stats in the first place. The point is, you don't need to have a lot of numbers on your pages to write a good blog, and k-bro writes a good blog.

Long relief: Josh's Thoughts

Your long reliever doesn't get into a lot of games, but when he does come in you're going to want him to give you some innings. And Josh Johnson -- who has the sort of name that makes you think he's got a future in this game -- doesn't disappoint when he takes the mound. He hasn't posted much recently, but when he does it's a lengthy, well-considered article in which he does an excellent job articulating his ideas. Like most long relievers, you hope that he can gain some consistency and earn a spot in the starting rotation some day.

That was fun ... and more difficult than I thought it would be. Figuring out who was a better baseball player than whom must have been quite the ordeal back in those dark days before Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs existed. And maybe I'm just getting ready to get old, but it seems to me that if there's ever a site that actually measures baseball bloggers on objective metrics and ostensibly assigns a "value" to them, well, blogging will have gotten just a little more fun. A dark day, you might say.

Unless those stats tell me that I'm good, in which case I'm all for them.

Will Gardy finally win Manager of the Year?

2010-09-17T00:00:00-07:00

Since this site used to be called FireGardy, everyone seems to think we are Gardy hating wackjobs. Well I have news for you, we don't hate Gardy (the wackjobs part is up for debate). I personally think he is one of the top three to five managers in the AL. So, after finishing second an absurd five times, is Gardy finally ready to win? I say yes.

The Twins started the season without their best pitcher, Joe Nathan. He had been one of the best closers in baseball over the base several years, and Jon Rauch was hardly an adequate replacement. Things started off great for the Twins, they were one of the top teams in baseball in April and May. Then mid-June rolled around and Nick Blackburn's deal with the devil expired. Injuries plagued Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey. The devil came back and rescinded whatever deal he had with Rauch. Then the biggest blow of them all, Morneau took a knee to the face on July 7th and has been out ever since. Gardy didn't blink, though. He and Bill Smith put on their thinking caps and banished Blackburn and his 6.66 ERA (literally, that is what it was at the time. Look it up) to Rochester and inserted Brian Duensing into the rotation. He performed way better than expected, and looks to be one of the Twins top three starters for a potential division series.

I for one have been shocked that he hasn't pulled Valnecia to give Punto the starting 3B job. Is this a sign of Gardy growing as a manager? Probably. Everyone says the Twins do the "little things right". Well news flash, they don't. But they are still in first place because Gardy and his staff have been able to guide them through all of these rough patches, and he doesn't let his players get down when they make an error or baserunning mistake. That is very important.

We all often question Gardy's use of his pitchers. Or his lineup construction on getaway days. This year, though, Gardy has been a steady hand at the wheel of a ship that has sailed through some very rough seas. To say he isn't manager of the year material is pretty foolish. So count me among the converted. I now consider Ron Gardenhire a "good" manager. Who else is with me?

Keep your socks up, Denard!

2010-09-16T00:00:00-07:00

Around the beginning of September, Denard Span felt the need to shake things up. He's had a rough year, and especially since the All Star break he'd been struggling.

From the All Star break to September 2, Span had more strikeouts than walks, only 7 extra base hits in 199 plate appearances, a paltry 7 RBI, and 4 stolen bases against 3 times caught stealing (plus countless times "picked off," which don't count as a caught-stealing for whatever reason). His triple-slash for that period was .244/.306/.283, for a .589 OPS ... which is about what you'd expect to get from your backup CF at AAA. These were not good times.

Span has long been one of the "new school" players who prefers full-length pants, with the hem down below his ankles. Objectively, I guess, it looks less stupid that way than the shorter pants with high socks. But given that there are only so many things you can do to "shake things up," Denard decided to wear his socks high and see how it felt.

He went 2-4 with a double on September 3. Wearing his socks up felt good.

I think I will be going with the high pants again today @thisisdspan

Span tweeted that the next morning. That day, he went 2-4 again, with a walk. After that series with the Rangers, Span must have found himself at a crossroads: go back to the long pants that he's more comfortable with, or stick with the shorter pants that he's hitting well in?

I'm debating how long I should go with my pants up past this labor day weekend... @thisisdspan

In baseball, goofy stuff like how you wear your pants matters. Apparent nonsense about "respecting the streak," and what not, but the point is that if Span thinks he can play better with his socks high, then, well, he can play better with his socks high. That's one of the oldest truths of baseball.

Plus, it makes you look more like a baseball player. At least, I think so.

The rest of your career! RT @thisisdspan: I'm debating how long I should go with my pants up past this labor day weekend... @sirsean

So far, Span has listened. (Or, more likely, has decided to respect the streak, as I'm guessing he doesn't actually listen to random dudes who tweet things at him.)

Since then he's worn his socks high every game, and in 49 plate appearances he's walked the same number of times as he's struck out, he has an impressive 10 RBI, he has 3 steals and hasn't been caught stealing (and I don't recall any pickoffs); he's hitting .286/.354/.429, for a .783 OPS which is pretty close to the sort of performance that got him his contract in the first place.

Keep your socks up, Denard!

Two Sides of the Liriano Coin

2010-09-15T00:00:00-07:00

Last night, Francisco Liriano turned in an adequate performance -- 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 3 BB -- that isn't going to help him convince anyone that he should be considered for the Cy Young. He struggled a bit with his command, but was hitting 97 MPH with his fastball and 90 MPH with his slider.

In my mind, there were two moments in the game that characterized who Liriano is as a pitcher and represent the arguments of those who say he's clearly in the running as a great pitcher as well as those who say he simply doesn't belong in the conversation.

The first of those moments came in the bottom of the 4th inning. After striking out Alex Rios, he gave up a fly ball by Paul Konerko that sailed to right-center field. Denard Span and Jason Kubel both cruised toward it, and neither of them made much of an attempt to catch it. Kubel "dove" for it (really, it wasn't much of a dive, he just fell down in the direction of the ball at the last second, when he realized Span wasn't going to try), while Span decided to "back up" the attempted catch by running in front of Kubel. When the ball predictably bounced right past Kubel, Span had to chase after it like so many embarrassed and flustered 9 year olds do every summer. Konerko stood at third base.

So after a botched defensive play, there was a runner at third and one out. This is the moment that defines greatness -- you need to get out of this inning. Liriano proceeded to strike out Manny Ramirez; just a fly ball or a ground ball would have scored a run and surrendered a lead. He then struck out Carlos Quentin to end the inning, preserving the 0-0 score. That's the sort of thing Cy Young winners do to win ballgames. This seems like the sort of moment that sticks out in the minds of people who want to see Liriano as a great pitcher.

The second pivotal moment occurred just the next inning. In the bottom of the fifth, Liriano found himself with men on first and third with one out, with Juan Pierre at the plate and long-time Liriano Killer Alexei Ramirez on deck. The best thing you can do in this situation is turn a double play.

Liriano managed to induce a weak ground ball off the bat of Pierre, but it came right back to him. Perhaps he was surprised, startled that he had to defend his position. After a moment of hesitation, he checked the runner at third and got the out at first. The replay showed that neither JJ Hardy nor Orlando Hudson covered second base, but Liriano wouldn't have known that because he never looked. Maybe he didn't trust either of them to make the throw to first base -- they've struggled with that lately. Maybe he figured he could just get the next guy out, so he didn't need to go for the two-fer. But maybe, and most likely, he just went blank in the heat of the moment; he froze, and momentarily forgot that he can get himself two outs, could escape the inning unscathed, could preserve his shutout.

And it seems to me that it's these moments that stick out in the minds of those who want to see Liriano as a guy with good stuff who isn't a big game pitcher, a guy they wouldn't trust in Game 7, a guy who can't be an Ace, and shouldn't even be mentioned for a Cy Young award regardless of his numbers.

Not every Cy Young award winner has been Gold-Glove-worthy at defending his position, but Liriano won't be able to silence his critics and convert his doubters unless he's able to straighten out issues like these. For them, it's not his defense that's the problem -- it's his mind.

Is it possible for Liriano to fix that? Is steely composure in the face of adversity a skill, or a natural-born trait that can't improve? Can he minimize the effects of that untrustworthiness, or is that one side of an immutable coin that's essential to who he his?

Useless Offday Thoughts: Fox, Johan, 2011 Rotation, Preseason Projections

2010-09-13T00:00:00-07:00

Useless Offday Thoughts was my favorite ongoing feature last year at Fire Gardy, but I haven't done any this year because the Twins haven't had any days off yet. Or rather, for some other, more "real" reason, like "laziness." But it makes its triumphant return today!

Matt Fox

When Matt Fox got the call to make a start for the Twins, I hadn't heard of him. That's no surprise, really -- his numbers in the minors are basically the definition of underwhelming. But he performed admirably (or better) with less than 24 hours notice against one of the best offenses in the league, and found out about the business side of baseball just a couple days later when he was cut to make room on the 40 man roster for Ben Revere. Gardenhire said he didn't like having to tell Fox about it, and at the time it seemed like a coldhearted thing for the Twins to do.

But there's another, more encouraging way to look at the situation. Fox took advantage of his opportunity -- and a rare opportunity it was, relying on a GM valuing the bullpen of a 49-95 AAA team more than the bullpen of a contending major league team, a long extra inning game in which both of the team's trade-acquired-closers begged out of duty, requiring two starting pitchers to pitch in relief -- and made enough of an impression that another team decided to take a closer look at him; the Red Sox selected him on waivers (apparently hoping they could catch the Boof Bonser lightning in the bottle for a second time). Fox would have been a minor league free agent at the end of the season anyway, and the Twins most likely wouldn't have kept him around. It's more than possible that this series of events was the best possible outcome for Matt Fox; I hope he doesn't hold this against the Twins. (My guess is that he doesn't.)

Johan Santana

Santana is having season-ending shoulder surgery and he will apparently start "throwing" again some time next spring. "Throwing," you will note, is different from "pitching."

Back in 2007 there was a whole lot of hand wringing about losing Johan, and criticism toward the Twins organization for not "doing what it takes" to re-sign him. But the Twins did offer him a couple of massive extensions, rumored at the time to have been in the range of 5 years and $100M. The Twins did attempt to over-extend themselves financially in order to keep what they saw as a "face of the franchise" type of player. However, there had already been signs that Santana's era of dominance was coming to a closer -- after posting 7.7 WAR in 2004, 7.6 WAR in 2005, and 7.3 WAR in 2006 (all three deserving of Cy Young awards but only netting him two), his production dropped to 4.6 WAR in 2007. The Twins didn't get a haul worthy of a 7-win player, but Santana earned himself a contract befitting one. And he just hasn't been worth it, so far.

The Mets got a 4.8 WAR season in 2008, followed by 2.8 WAR in 2009 and 3.7 WAR in 2010. They're paying for an elite pitcher, an Ace, and they're simply not getting one. And there's really no telling what they'll have when he returns ... this surgery is one that risks a pitcher's velocity and command. Oh yeah, there's one last thing: regardless of how well he can pitch, the Mets still owe him $77.5M over the remainder of his contract.

I know I'm working with the benefit of hindsight here, which is unfair, but imagine that Santana had accepted the Twins' offer of $20M per season. They wouldn't have received the players they used to acquire Jon Rauch or JJ Hardy, they wouldn't have had the payroll flexibility to sign Joe Mauer to his mega-contract, they may not have found themselves at the point on the win-curve where it made sense to sign Orlando Hudson or Jim Thome (and they may not have been able to afford it), or to trade for Matt Capps or Brian Fuentes. For all that, they would have received a Johan Santana in name only -- good, not great performance -- at the cost of the best pitcher in the game. To compare: Carl Pavano has been worth 3.6 WAR this season, roughly the same as Santana. And in 2010, Livan Hernandez has been worth 2.8 WAR.

Suffice it to say, things would have been a little bit different if the Twins had signed Johan rather than traded him. It just goes to show you, signing pitchers to long-term contracts is extremely dangerous.

2011 Rotation

The Twins' starting rotation hasn't seemed like a strong suit this year, and the unit's 4.10 ERA has been the 6th-best in the AL this year. But what might the rotation look like next season? Will it still need to be bolstered by a strong offense?

Francisco Liriano has posted 6.1 WAR this season, good for 3rd-best in the majors and 1st-best in the AL. I'm not here to argue, again, that he's an Ace, or that he's been the best pitcher in the league this season, even though those things may well be true. I'm also not here to gloat that I picked him to win the AL Cy Young award this year, even though that's certainly true. (He obviously won't win the Cy Young, but if he leads the league in WAR he certainly earned the right to be in the conversation.) My only point here is that he's pretty good and will headline the rotation next season.

Pavano has pitched way above his paygrade, and may have earned a multi-year contract somewhere. Given the Twins' payroll status -- which appears to be shooting well about $100M -- he probably won't earn his dollars in Minnesota. I'm sure there will be a contingent of fans disappointed by that, but it seems likely at this point unless Pavano (for some reason) decides that he likes Minnesota enough to sign another one-year, below-market-rate contract. I find that a little unlikely.

So there are likely four spots open behind Liriano -- Baker and Blackburn may have had disappointing seasons this year, but they also have guaranteed contracts, so they'll be in the rotation. Competing for the final two spots: Kevin Slowey, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Jeff Manship, Anthony Swarzak, and Alex Burnett. Promising prospects David Bromberg, and Kyle Gibson will probably not be in the competition at the start of the season, but may be ready to play a role sometime in 2011.

From where I sit, Slowey and Duensing are most likely to get the call to start the year, with the rest of those middling names will fill out the team's necessary pitching depth. The rotation actually seems like it's in reasonably good shape ... how likely do you think it is that the Twins feel the need to look to the free agent market either to make a splash with a big name or to pick up a veteran retread to lose some games before getting cut in July?

PECOTA

I always like to make jokes about Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system having some sort of robotic vendetta against the Twins, but at this point it seems that the AL Central might just reside in some sort of computerized black hole where PECOTA's systems can't see it. For 2010, they projected the Twins to win the AL Central with just 83 wins, and no other AL Central team was projected to best a .500 record.

That projection seemed foolish to me at the time -- it ignored the tremendous offense built around stars like Mauer and Morneau, and filled out with capable players at every position and must have assumed that none of the pitchers could get anyone out, and perhaps most importantly it demonstrated that the computer has not become sentient. After all, PECOTA always projects the Twins to be roughly a .500 team, and it always turns out to be wrong. Maybe that's evidence of an anti-Twins bias in the computer algorithms developed by people who live on the South Side of Chicago and frequently attend White Sox games. Maybe it's evidence that Ron Gardenhire is actually an excellent manager who consistently ekes more wins out of his roster than he ought to be able to. Maybe the Twins franchise has just been stupidly lucky every single year; I live in Chicago, and that seems to be the prevailing notion here.

Regardless, the Twins have already won 85 games this year and are on pace to win 96 games -- that beats PECOTA's projection so handily that I wish I had the graphics-making chops to throw together an image of Gardy taking a shit on a computer.

...

These were certainly useless. I hope it wasn't too much of a stretch to call them thoughts. Something to help get you through an offday.

Fit to be King

2010-09-13T00:00:00-07:00

The internets have been raging with debate the past couple of weeks, as people desperately try to find another topic that could drive a wedge between the mainstream/old-school media and the basement-dwelling/not-printed-on-real-paper blogosphere. This time, the narrative chosen is "CC Sabathia vs Felix Hernandez."

The basic premise is that on the one hand, you've got a good pitcher having a good season for a great team and racking up Wins by the handful, and on the other you have a good pitcher having a better season for a horseshit team and tossing back peripheral stats -- but not Wins -- like they're Pabst Blue Ribbon. It's made for a good fight, with plenty of entertaining back-and-forth and name-calling. My Twitter timeline is filled with "anyone who thinks CC Sabathia deserves the Cy Young is a moron," and my RSS feeds are filled with "anyone who doesn't think CC Sabathia deserves the Cy Young is a moron." So yeah, it's fun. Joe Posnanski even weighed in, with an interesting start-by-start comparison of the two heavyweight contenders. He found that King Felix had the edge.

But my question is this: why has the field already been culled to two? If we as a collective blogosphere are going to throw our support behind a pitcher who deserves consideration for a Cy Young award despite a lackluster win-loss record, why is it Felix Hernandez?

There's another pitcher having a tremendous season this year, and since this is a Twins blog you may have guessed that I'm going to say his name is Francisco Liriano. You'd be right. So, without further ado, I'm going to follow in Posnanski's eminent footsteps and try to do a start-by-start comparison of King Felix and Franchise Liriano, and see which of them ought to be wearing the crown.

1st start

Hernandez vs OAK: 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 6 BB, ND
Liriano vs CHW: 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 5 BB, ND

Comment: Quality starts for both pitchers, Felix had 1 more K and 1 more BB. I'm giving this one to Felix because of a substantial advantage in RE24.

Advantage: Hernandez (1-0)

2nd start

Hernandez vs TEX: 7 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 5 K, 2 BB, ND
Liriano vs BOS: 7 IP, 0 ER, 8 K, 2 BB, W

Comment: Pretty clear victory for Liriano, with no runs and more strikeouts.

Advantage: Liriano (1-1)

3rd start

Hernandez vs DET: 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K, 2 BB, W
Liriano vs CLE: 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 2 BB, W

Comment: Another obvious victory for Liriano; more innings, 0 runs.

Advantage: Liriano (2-1)

4th start

Hernandez vs BAL: 9 IP, 0 ER (1 R), 6 K, 0 BB, W
Liriano vs DET: 8 IP, 0 ER, 10 K, 1 BB, W

Comment: Oh boy, this one was quite the duel! Felix has more innings but gave up an unearned run. You'll notice that Felix's ERA is helped considerably by all the unearned runs surrendered by his supposedly-excellent defense; Liriano does not get that advantage. Also, Liriano had a bunch more strikeouts. Liriano had the RE24 advantage and I'm using that to break ties. Feel free to score at home.

Advantage: Liriano (3-1)

5th start

Hernandez vs KCR: 7 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 7 K, 3 BB, L
Liriano vs CLE: 7 IP, 3 ER, 9 K, 3 BB, W

Comment: Another close one. Felix's ERA gets the benefit of another unearned run, but both guys left the game after 7 innings with 3 runs on the board. Liriano has a 2 K advantage.

Advantage: Liriano (4-1)

6th start

Hernandez vs TEX: 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K, 4 BB, L
Liriano vs BAL: 6 IP, 5 ER, 3 K, 1 BB, L

Comment: Their good outings have been aligning, and their clunkers are aligning too. That's kind of annoying. They both gave up 5 runs, but Liriano pitched deeper into the game. Felix has 2 more strikeouts, Liriano has 3 fewer walks. Again, Liriano has the RE24 advantage.

Advantage: Liriano (5-1)

7th start

Hernandez vs LAA: 3.1 IP, 7 ER (8 R), 3 K, 4 BB, L
Liriano vs NYY: 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 0 BB, L

Comment: A bad start for Hernandez, and a quality start for Liriano.

Advantage: Liriano (6-1)

8th start

Hernandez vs BAL: 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 2 BB, ND
Liriano vs BOS: 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K, 3 BB, L

Comment: Liriano got clobbered in this one.

Advantage: Hernandez (2-6)

9th start

Hernandez vs OAK: 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 2 BB, ND
Liriano vs NYY: 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 2 BB, ND

Comment: More innings, fewer runs, more strikeouts.

Advantage: Liriano (7-2)

10th start

Hernandez vs SDP: 7 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 6 K, 1 BB, L
Liriano vs SEA: 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 0 BB, W

Comment: This is a close one. Liriano has the K and BB advantage, and they'd have given up the same number of runs but for Hernandez's secret unearned-run weapon. I don't want to penalize him for that, but I also don't think it's reasonable to reward him for it. Felix has the RE24 advantage.

Advantage: Hernandez (3-7)

11th start

Hernandez vs LAA: 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 3 BB, ND
Liriano vs OAK: 7 IP, 1 ER, 10 K, 2 BB, ND

Comment: Good outings for both pitchers. Felix went deeper, Liriano had more strikeouts and fewer walks. Felix had a better RE24, Francisco had a better WPA. Tough call.

Advantage: Hernandez (4-7)

12th start

Hernandez vs MIN: 8 IP, 1 ER, 9 K, 1 BB, W
Liriano vs ATL: 8 IP, 1 ER, 11 K, 0 BB, W

Comment: Another strong outing for both of them. Same distance, same runs ... Liriano had double-digit strikeouts, and I like that.

Advantage: Liriano (8-4)

13th start

Hernandez vs TEX: 6 IP, 7 ER, 5 K, 3 BB, L
Liriano vs COL: 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 3 BB, L

Comment: Felix turns in another bad performance.

Advantage: Liriano (9-4)

14th start

Hernandez vs SDP: 8.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K, 1 BB, W
Liriano vs MIL: 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 1 BB, L

Comment: Clear victory for Felix.

Advantage: Hernandez (5-9)

15th start

Hernandez vs CIN: 9 IP, 1 ER, 9 K, 1 BB, W
Liriano vs DET: 6 IP, 6 ER, 6 K, 2 BB, L

Comment: Liriano gets his doors blown off and Hernandez is lights out. Another easy one.

Advantage: Hernandez (6-9)

16th start

Hernandez vs CHC: 9 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, 1 BB, ND
Liriano vs TBR: 7 IP, 1 ER, 10 K, 1 BB, ND

Comment: Felix goes all the way, but Liriano gives up fewer runs and strikes out more batters. This seems to happen pretty frequently. Liriano has a narrow RE24 advantage.

Advantage: Liriano (10-6)

17th start

Hernandez vs NYY: 9 IP, 0 ER, 11 K, 3 BB, W
Liriano vs DET: 1.2 IP, 7 ER, 1 K, 2 BB, L

Comment: Bam. Liriano was pitching injured in this one; Hernandez, clearly, was not.

Advantage: Hernandez (7-10)

18th start

Hernandez vs KCR: 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 2 BB, ND
Liriano vs CHW: 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, 2 BB, W

Comment: Got more outs, gave up the same runs, struck out more batters, walked the same number. I think this one is clear.

Advantage: Liriano (11-7)

19th start

Hernandez vs NYY: 9 IP, 1 ER, 9 K, 2 BB, W
Liriano vs CLE: 7 IP, 0 ER, 8 K, 4 BB, W

Comment: More innings, gave up more runs. But this time, Hernandez also strikes out more batters and walks fewer. That 0 on there is nice, though, and Liriano ekes out another RE24 tie-breaker.

Advantage: Liriano (12-7)

20th start

Hernandez vs LAA: 8 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 0 BB, L
Liriano vs KCR: 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 0 BB, W

Comment: Another scoreless outing for Liriano, with twice as many strikeouts.

Advantage: Liriano (13-7)

21st start

Hernandez vs CHW: 8 IP, 0 ER, 8 K, 0 BB, ND
Liriano vs SEA: 7 IP, 0 ER, 11 K, 2 BB, W

Comment: Both pitchers were on in this one. Felix went deeper, but once again I like it that Liriano put up double-digit strikeouts. RE24, however, is going with Hernandez.

Advantage: Hernandez (8-13)

22nd start

Hernandez vs CHW: 7 IP, 2 ER (4 R), 3 K, 3 BB, L
Liriano vs CLE: 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K, 6 BB, ND

Comment: At first I thought this would be an easy one -- 4.2 innings for Liriano is pretty rough. But they both gave up 4 runs, Liriano struck out twice as many guys ... you know what? I don't care. If you don't complete 5 innings, you can't win this game.

Advantage: Hernandez (9-13)

23rd start

Hernandez vs MIN: 7 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 1 BB, L
Liriano vs CHW: 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 2 BB, W

Comment: Felix gets 4 more outs, but surrenders 2 more runs. I don't know which way to go on this one. RE24 gives a pretty clear decision in favor of Liriano.

Advantage: Liriano (14-9)

24th start

Hernandez vs TEX: 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 1 BB, L
Liriano vs CHW: 5 IP, 5 ER, 5 K, 4 BB, ND

Comment: At this point, I really like the easy decisions. As many runs as innings means you lose.

Advantage: Hernandez (10-14)

25th start

Hernandez vs OAK: 8 IP, 0 ER, 13 K, 1 BB, W
Liriano vs TEX: 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 1 BB, W

Comment: More innings, 0 runs, double-digit strikeouts? Easy!

Advantage: Hernandez (11-14)

26th start

Hernandez vs CLE: 6.2 IP, 0 ER (6 R), 7 K, 4 BB, L
Liriano vs DET: 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 K, 1 BB, ND

Comment: Liriano went deeper, walked fewer, and if I credit Hernandez for "0 earned runs" I have to ignore the fact that you can't give up 6 unearned runs without falling apart after your defense lets you down.

Advantage: Liriano (15-11)

27th start

Hernandez vs NYY: 8 IP, 0 ER, 11 K, 3 BB, W
Liriano vs KCR: 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 K, 0 BB, W

Comment: More innings, 0 runs, double-digit strikeouts? Easy!

Advantage: Hernandez (12-15)

28th start

Hernandez vs BOS: 7.1 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 9 K, 1 BB, W

Comment: At this point, I find myself staring at a conundrum. Hernandez has made four more starts than Liriano has. He's showing himself to be a workhorse, while Liriano has been asking for extra days of rest to keep his arm fresh for the playoffs -- something Felix does not have to worry about. Still, this was a good start.

Advantage: Hernandez (13-15)

29th start

Hernandez vs LAA: 7 IP, 0 ER, 8 K, 3 BB, ND

Comment: Another good start. It seems weird to keep playing this game when only one guy is on the field. But if I didn't, Liriano would get the benefit of Hernandez pitching more often. That's clearly unfair.

Advantage: Hernandez (14-15)

30th start

Hernandez vs CLE: 8 IP, 0 ER, 9 K, 1 BB, W

Comment: King Felix dominates again and ties it up!

Advantage: Hernandez (15-15)

31st start

Hernandez vs LAA: 6.1 IP, 4 ER (7 R), 5 K, 3 BB, L

Comment: So the question people are going to ask after this one is "Did Liriano win it, or did Hernandez lose?" On the other, probably more important, hand ... I think I'll have to go with the old adage: you can't win if you don't play.

Advantage: Nobody (15-15)

So, we played the start-by-start game and don't seem to be any closer to a decision. When they're both actually on the mound, Liriano seems to be the better pitcher -- through 27 starts, Liriano had a pretty strong 15-12 lead. But Hernandez took advantage of starting more games to tie it up at 15-15. So maybe we should take a look at their overall stats?

Hernandez has a 2.39 ERA, 3.01 FIP, and 3.26 xFIP in 225.2 IP, posting 8.68 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, and 0.60 HR/9, with a 53.2 GB% and .286 BABIP. Those numbers have helped him accumulate an impressive 5.9 WAR.

Liriano has a 3.24 ERA, 2.37 FIP, and 3.04 xFIP in 172.1 IP, posting 9.50 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, 0.21 HR/9, with a 53.9 GB% and .341 BABIP. Those numbers have led to an even more impressive 6.1 WAR.*

Felix leads in ERA, IP, BB/9 (narrowly), and has a significantly lower BABIP.

Liriano leads in FIP, xFIP, K/9, HR/9, GB% (narrowly), and WAR.

* Note that WAR is a cumulative stat, not a rate stat; it takes into account the fact that Liriano has a significant disadvantage in innings pitched.

This just tells us once again that Liriano's candle burns brighter but not as long. While they're both on the mound, Liriano is the better pitcher. Since Hernandez is able to last longer, he's able to nearly close the gap in value.

I don't know how to calculate what a 55-point gap in BABIP does to their numbers, though. Over this many innings, that's a lot of extra baserunners for Liriano that only got there because Liriano's defense doesn't convert outs behind him as well as Hernandez's does. If Liriano didn't have to face all those extra batters, would he have gone deeper into games and accumulated more innings? Or, conversely, would he have had fewer opportunities to strike out the next batter? And if the Mariners defense had allowed baserunners without committing so many "errors," then all those unearned runs would have actually counted against Hernandez's ERA and you may not be quite as impressed.* I don't know, but I don't think you can just ignore that BABIP.

* If Hernandez's 17 unearned runs actually counted against his ERA, it would be 3.07 rather than 2.39 ... and we might not even be having this conversation.

At the end of the day, though, I think this clearly demonstrates that the ongoing debate about the AL Cy Young award is misguided -- it shouldn't be "CC vs Felix," it should be "Felix vs Liriano." And I'm surprised that the entire statistical community has jumped onto the King Felix Bandwagon. Dave Cameron takes a jab at said community:

I would be tempted to chalk this up to the power of the narrative, where people were voting for Sabathia because the media has kept him at the forefront of the discussion, but we see this same rejection of DIPS theory in the vote totals for Hernandez, Liriano, and Lee. Even though you’re spending your Friday afternoon reading FanGraphs, most of you guys still seem to vote along the lines of innings and ERA. To me, that’s interesting.

I don't want to guess at the motivations of the mob -- whenever I try that, I'm always way off. Still, I wonder if the issue is that people saw a good pitcher with an 11-11 record and decided it was more important to reject Wins as a meaningful stat than to actually use more meaningful stats to embrace excellence.

But if you ask me, I think King Felix's crown belongs to Francisco Liriano.

On Matt Capps

2010-09-08T00:00:00-07:00

When the Twins traded (apparently former) top prospect Wilson Ramos for (allegedly proven) closer Matt Capps, I was not thrilled -- Ramos had been in the conversation as the headliner of a deal for Cliff Lee, and when the Yankees and Rangers outbid the Twins, Ramos became the headliner of a deal for Dan Haren. After it became clear that Haren didn't want any part of participating in a playoff race -- I assume that was his reason for putting the Twins on his no-trade clause -- Bill Smith apparently felt that Wilson Ramos must go, no matter the return.

So Capps and I got off to a bad start. He was going to have to pitch really, really well to dig himself out of the hole that Smith dug for him -- and even then, it may not have been enough. I say that to get my bias out of the way.

Since coming to the Twins, Capps has pitched 18 innings in 18 games, with a seemingly-shiny 2.00 ERA. Opposing hitters are hitting .288/.347/.379 off him -- not great, but it's not like he's getting lit up -- and that's with the benefit of a .353 BABIP. He's blown a couple of saves, but the Twins have not lost a game that he's entered with the lead.

After using him primarily as a full-inning Closer through August -- and giving him extended days of rest while the rest of the bullpen went down with the ship -- Gardy has already thrown Capps into some unusual situations so far in September. On Friday, September 3, Capps entered the game in the 8th inning with one out and men on 1st and 3rd, with just a one run lead; he escaped the jam in the 8th and pitched a scoreless 9th for an impressive five-out save. At that point I considered writing this article, admitting that I may have been wrong about Capps, and that he's really not the worst thing to happen to Closing Ballgames since Latroy Hawkins.

But on Sunday, September 5, Capps turned in the most Capps-like outing possible. He entered the game with a three run lead with two outs in the 9th inning, and a man on second base. The game had been in the bag for a while, as the Twins had held a 6-2 lead since the 7th inning; the Rangers hadn't scored since the 2nd, and had never been as close as tied since Cuddyer doubled in two runs in the bottom of the first. So after Rauch managed to turn it into a Save Situation in the 9th, Capps came in to drive up his arbitration price this winter. He gave up a single to Christian Guzman, a single to Michael Young, and walked Daniel Murphy. The bases were loaded, still two outs, and the score was 6-4. Vladimir Guerrero was batting. The fun, easy victory that had been dancing on my TV screen for a few hours was being chained to the floor and tortured by the unfriendly-looking Capps -- what had that victory ever done to him?

Guerrero hit a ball up the middle, and it looked like the game would be tied. But Orlando Hudson showed a surprising amount of range and saved the game -- he'd keep it tied for at least one more batter! -- and then, when he thought he wouldn't have a play, he saw Michael Young rounding third base just a little too far and fired. It was a close play at third, but Young had reached the bag safely. The umpire, though, didn't seem to care about that. He saw some inadvertent contact between Young and the third base coach, and called Young out to end the game.

Matt Capps got his Save, and he did it without retiring a single batter. I'm sure that's happened before, but I can't remember it and I don't know how to look it up.

And I suppose this is the thing about Capps. He can be so infuriating at times -- blowing saves, being awarded saves despite facing four batters and retiring zero of them, all the while sporting this strangely bemused look on his face -- that I just want to tweet cruel things like "Matt Capps is definitely going to help the Twins in the playoffs. Help them lose." and "If Wilson Ramos never makes it to the majors, the Twins still got screwed on that trade. #IHateMattCapps", and "After the game we're taking a trip to the glue factory, and Matt Capps doesn't get to come!" (I didn't actually tweet that last one, but it's been waiting on the tips of my fingers for the next time Capps blows a save.)

On the other hand, he does have a solid fastball, and he does help win games. He's the third person to ever record 10 saves in both leagues in one season, which isn't nothing. He looks like Louis CK pretending to be a baseball player.

That's going to make me laugh every time I look at Matt Capps from now on. Seriously, try to deny that he looks like Louis CK making fun of being a baseball player. You can't do it.

His very presence pushes the rest of the relievers forward an inning, which improves the bullpen regardless of how well he actually does -- and as noted, despite the rollercoaster ride, the Twins have won every game he's entered with a lead. And, at the end of the day, that's what you pay your Closer for.

I suppose this is what I'm trying to say:

Matt Capps, I will never forgive you for that trade, no matter how long you live.

No, wait. That's not it. Let's try that again:

Matt Capps, that trade wasn't your fault. You didn't make the Twins give up Wilson Ramos. Just keep up the good work, and I'll try to stop having a heart attack every time you release a pitch. Deal?

Maybe it's a bit of both.

Syzygy Destroys Bullpen, Twins Lose

2010-09-03T00:00:00-07:00

Lately Bill Smith has been making solid moves to bolster the Twins' chances at a playoff run this year, making it difficult for reasonable fans to criticize him without celestial bodies aligning to bring about an unforeseen situation that would require far more bullpen arms than even Wild Bill would be able to acquire.

Well, there must have been a syzygy of some sort last night, because last night's 13 inning half-marathon showed just how frayed are the seams of the Twins' bullpen. Coming into the game, Matt Capps and Brian Fuentes were known to be unavailable -- Capps had just pitched two consecutive days, and Fuentes has a bad back for some reason.

So let's take a look at what happened, shall we?

Scott Baker pitched just two innings before leaving with elbow tendinitis -- his return is unknown.
Manship pitched well, leaving with a 3 run lead.
Rauch pitched well too, leaving with a 4 run lead through 7 innings.
Flores came in, despite the fact that he'd pitched in two consecutive games -- but he's not a Closer, so his arm doesn't need to be protected. He got one out and gave up one hit, and his night was done after 7 pitches.
Guerrier came in,* despite the fact that he'd pitched in two consecutive games -- but he's not a Closer, so his arm doesn't need to be protected. He's also been struggling through one of his patented dead-arm periods (which he got because he's been pitching way too often). He got lit up, and by the time he left, the lead was gone.
Crain came in, despite the fact that he'd pitched in two consecutive games -- but he's not a Closer, so his arm doesn't need to be protected. He's pitched well lately, but if there's one thing Gardy loves doing to a guy who's pitching well, it's ride him until his arm falls off. So enjoy that, Crain. Oh, and Crain gave up a home run, and the last Twins lead of the night was gone.
Having exhausted all the available options in the bullpen, the Twins went with the only strategy that made sense. Continuing to preserve a veteran Closer at the expense of young starters! Duensing came in despite having pitched on Tuesday. One day's rest, baby! That's never turned into a long term problem for a team in the past!
Then they needed another pitcher, so finally they brought in -- no, wait, never mind. They didn't go to Capps. Instead, they went with Friday night's starter, Nick Blackburn, who mercifully lost the game.

* Scott Ullger was managing at for the late innings, because Gardy had been ejected earlier in the game by Joe West, who continues to be very adamant that nobody can question any of his myriad terrible calls. I'm guessing Ullger was thinking, "What would Gardy do in this situation? I know! Put in Guerrier!" It worked about as well as you'd have guessed.

So the Twins managed to keep Fuentes and Capps out of the game, preserving the health of their pair of mercenary Closers at the expense of everyone else on the pitching staff, who have also been dramatically overworked in recent days. And if you noticed a pattern up there, I wouldn't call you crazy. It seems like every pitcher in the bullpen has been used in every game -- Gardy must have heard about this newfound vaunted bullpen depth, and forgot that it doesn't really matter whether you have 3 guys or 8 guys if they're all exhausted all the time. But it didn't have to be this way, Smithers; no, it didn't have to be this way at all.

Apparently, Gardy had been "begging" Bill Smith for bullpen help, made possible by the September 1 roster expansion. I don't know exactly why Smith was reticent to do it, but here are two possibilities:

Possibility The First: Gardy said he'd been trying to get ahold of him for the last two days. So maybe Smith is simply incommunicado. If true, that's pretty bad.

Possibility The Second: Bill Smith is waiting until the Rochester Red Wings season is over before taking away their most talented relievers. (I saw this a few days ago, but can't find the link to it right now. Damn internet.) If this is true, and Smith values AAA wins as much as he values MLB-pennant-race wins, that's really bad.

So basically, there wasn't any excuse not to have more relievers in the bullpen. At least Slama and Burnett, maybe Perkins and Neshek and Swarzak. There are warm bodies waiting in AAA, and they could have been out in the bullpen last night if Bill Smith had called for them.

And, because Blackburn was wasted in relief the night before his scheduled start, the Twins needed to find another starter for Friday night. Who should they go with? Pavano? No, they won't move him up a day. Swarzak? Too bad, he started on Wednesday. Perkins? Too bad, he pitched two innings in relief on Thursday.

Say hello to your Friday night starter: Matt Fox.

Who the hell is that?, I hear you asking. Well, good question. The Twins drafted him in the 1st round back in 2004, and here are his AAA numbers this year: 123 IP, 3.95 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 9.1 H/9, 1.2 HR/9. For what it's worth, every single one of those peripherals has trended in the wrong direction at each level throughout the minors. His stuff just doesn't play at the upper levels.

Put another way, Anthony Swarzak's AAA numbers look like this: 231.1 IP, 4.28 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 10.0 H/9, 0.8 HR/9. So Fox has performed better than Swarzak, but Swarzak's just 24 and still a prospect -- Fox is 27 and on the brink of not being a prospect any more.

Matt Fox is 27 years old, doesn't have much in the way of stuff, doesn't have a track record of good performance in the minors, and is pretty clearly not a prospect. Good for him for making it to the majors.

But it took a whole lot of random, disconnected events all converging at once to get him this chance. Even if he makes the most of it, he probably won't stick around.

So hopefully he enjoys himself while he's here.

And hopefully Bill Smith has learned that he should never let this happen again.

Is Valencia a rookie of the year candidate?

2010-09-02T00:00:00-07:00

Sorry for the complete lack of postings lately, both of us have been very busy. I just got back from Vegas and was on the opposite side of the same hotel Paris Hilton was in when she got arrested for coke possession. So that's cool.

All season long it seems Austin Jackson and Neftali Feliz have been getting all the AL ROY hype, well they better make room for Danny Valencia.

Valencia was called up a few months back when Cuddyer had to go on the bereavement list, and it was expected that he wouldn't stick around. He has been touted as the Twins thirdbaseman of the future, despite being not much more than a decent hitter, and average fielder in the minors. Ever since Gardy installed him as the regular 3B in the middle of the summer he has been white hot. After his walk-off single last night he is hitting a nifty 332/375/447 in 224 plate appearances. He has played a very solid third base, showing good range, and a great arm. His UZR/150 is 24.7, but that is next to meaningless due to the ever present "small sample size".

Detroit Tigers CF Austin Jackson is one of the other leading ROY candidates. Along with playing spectacular defense in center, as witnessed last night, he is hitting 305/357/408 in 547 plate appearances. While not as good as Valencia, he has had over twice as many PAs. That might be enough to sway voters. While Valencia plays solid, steady defense, Jackson provides more highlight reel catches.

Feliz has been excellent closing games for the first place Rangers this year. He has notched 34 saves. His ERA isn't sparkling, 3.26, and it is right in line with his FIP (3.28). His strikeout rate is good, 9.16, but I like to see closers hit the double digits there. His WHIP is under 1.00, which is always good.

If you held a gun to my head, I'd probably pick Jackson since he has been performing at a high level since day one. Although the Twins and Rangers being in playoff contention in September certainly gives Valencia and Feliz bonus points. I don't think the Twins would be in first place without Valencia's contributions.

What does everyone else think?

Well, that was fun

2010-08-18T00:00:00-07:00

Random musings from last night's victory:

The first walkoff hit in the entire history of storied Target Field was last night. A prodigious two run blast by White Sox castoff (and future hall of famer, good roster management Ozzie) sealed the victory for the Twins.

Minnesota had some shaky pitching between starter Scott Baker, Closer Matt Capps, and ex-Closer Jon Rauch. This was not encouraging. As awesome as it was to see Thome launch a 450 foot blast onto the plaza, and then get a shaving cream pie in the face from Rauch, a shaky starter and bullpen had be worried. Capps is still leaps and bounds better than Rauch, and I will feel confident if Gardy puts him in to close out a ballgame tonight.

Does anyone else have zero confidence in Baker right now? I know he was impressive against the Rays two starts ago, but his last two have been very bad. Is this someone you want starting in the playoffs? Essentially throwing a reliever out there who is a crapshoot? I do not. Granted we have to GET to the playoffs first, and that is no guarantee. We have seven games left against Texas, including four in Arlington. Those certainly won't be a cakewalk. We have three left in Chicago, out side of those ten games nothing on the schedule really has me shaking in my boots. If I were to wear boots.

I hate to me Mr. Negative after such an awesome win, but I think it is always important to remember where we were last year (6.5 out of first, in third place) and keep in mind that a team can get white hot for five weeks and do anything. We can't take our foot off the pedal here, kick them while they are down, etc.

Liriano wishes he had a defense behind him

2010-08-13T00:00:00-07:00

Last night Liriano struggled a bit -- but those struggles merely highlight why he's having a better year than you'd think based on a glance at his superficial numbers.

Sure, he loaded the bases three times. But do you remember how he gave up his only run? On a squib-shot off the end of the bat of Pierzynski that went foul down the third baseline, spinning wildly to the left, which somehow managed to take an abrupt right turn and die in the grass in fair territory.

In other cases, the bases got loaded up when Delmon Young dropped a line drive that was basically right at him and Valencia made a bad throw to first on an attempted sacrifice bunt. How did he handle that one? By inducing an easy grounder back to himself which he threw home for a double play -- but Mauer didn't throw to first. So how did he handle that? By striking out Konerko and Quentin in impressive fashion to escape the inning unscathed.

It'd be easy for Liriano to fail in these situations, when his teammates aren't giving him any help. But it's a sign of a good, mature pitcher who can overcome that sort of adversity. He may not have racked up the strikeouts or gone deep into the game, but he showed what can only be called "grit."

You may not be impressed by his 3.26 ERA, but what about his league-leading 2.14 FIP? Here's an awesome little list of the league leaders in FIP over the last ten years:

2009: Zack Greinke (2.33)*
2008: Tim Lincecum (2.59)*
2007: Jake Peavy (2.84)*
2006: Johan Santana (3.04)*
2005: Johan Santana (2.80)
2004: Randy Johnson (2.30)
2003: Pedro Martinez (2.21)
2002: Pedro Martinez (2.24)
2001: Randy Johnson (2.22)*
2000: Pedro Martinez (2.17)*

* Cy Young Award winners

So ... yeah. Leading the league in FIP tends to indicate that you're a great pitcher having a great season.

And I think it's worth pointing out that Liriano's FIP is lower than all of those.

Francisco Liriano is one of the best pitchers in the league this season; if his defense would give him any sort of support (his league-high .349 BABIP indicates that they're not), he'd have a lower ERA and would be able to pitch deeper into games, which would convince people that he's actually doing well.

But you don't need that to be convinced, do you?

Yes, the blog still exists

2010-08-10T00:00:00-07:00

So, the Twins are in first place. Thanks to Brian Roberts. So we enter the first of two August series with the White Sox tied for first place. We have to remember, it is still only August. Even if we lose two of three, we're only a game out. If we sweep we are only three games up, etc. Obviously every game from here on out is very important, but I fully expect my twitter feed to blow up with "the sky is falling" comments every time a reliever puts a man on base. Trust me, this will be annoying, and I will probably be a little guilty of it too. So everyone, relax.

I'm not too thrilled about Perkins starting on Wednesday, but I have no problem with Pavano or Liriano asking for an extra day. They have both been studs, and deserve a little extra rest in order to continue being studs down the stretch. The White Sox are throwing Garcia/Danks/Floyd, which is pretty good for them. We counter with Baker/Perkins/Liriano. Outside of Liriano I have no idea what to expect. As we all know Baker is a Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde pitcher, and Perkins has been hit or miss in AAA. Thankfully the Sox lineup isn't much better than your average AAA team.

We will be repeating these exact same steps next week, with an off day monday followed by a three game series against Chicago. So to quote Hawk Harrellson, "sit back, relax and strap it down".

You know, I never understood what he meant by that. Strap what down? Apparently he has a new catchphrase, "don't stop now, boys". So those of you who get to/have to watch the White Sox broadcast look out for it, and tell me if it ever fits into the context of the game. I can't imagine it ever does.

Also, Sean has put together the old FireGardy.com archives into a downloadble kindle product on amazon, so if you feel like shelling out $2.99 to read it on your Kindles, head over to amazon and download it.

Twins vs White Sox live blog-8/11/10

2010-08-10T00:00:00-07:00

Please join us tonight for a live blog of game two of the Twins-White Sox series. We'll get started right around 7pm central time. Sean has the pleasure of watching the White Sox broadcast so he will be able to fill us in on the musings of Hawk Harrellson. So sit back, relax, and strap it down......Or something like that.

Twins vs White Sox 8/11/10

AL Player of the Month: Hamilton vs Young

2010-07-27T00:00:00-07:00

Delmon Young has been white hot. But you all know that. Out west (actually, south) Josh Hamilton of the Rangers has been equally hot. Literally. Their numbers in July are shockingly close. Let's take a look:

	Young	Hamilton
AB	89	84
R	12	14
H	38	34
2B	11	9
3B	0	1
HR	5	5
RBI	24	16
BB	2	7
HBP	2	0
SO	7	13
SB	1	1
CS	1	0
AVG	0.427	0.405
OBP	0.447	0.446
SLG	0.719	0.714
OPS	1.166	1.160

The only places Delmon has a noticble advantage are batting average and RBI. These are from ESPN, so forgive their basic-ness, but I think it's best to use these for any discussion, because I can't see AL sportswriters delving any deeper. Another factor we have to consider is probably team record during the month of July. Now, why this would have any bearing on an INDIVIDUAL award is beyond me, but we all now that is how it works. Surprise! Both teams are 11-11 as of this morning.

While a player of the month award for July couldn't get much less important, I just find it interesting how well, and similar, these two guys have been playing. Delmon is probably still considered a "bad apple" by many, and Hamilton will probably always been a "feel good story". So, we'll have to see if one of these two guys (or teams) can distinguish themselves from the other over the next few days. What does everyone else think?

Twins miss out on Danny Haren

2010-07-26T00:00:00-07:00

Danny Haren was tradedto the Angels last night for a pretty underwhelming package of Joe Saunders, Patrick Corbin, Rafael Rodriguez and Tyler Skaggs (Skaggs was announced this morning, he was originally a PTBNL). This probably leaves many Twins fans angry that Smith didn't make a better push (or a push at all) to acquire Haren. While he hasn't been very good since the first half of 09, he is still a frontline starter. John Bonnes at TwinsCentric wrote why he thinks Haren's contract isn't as reasonable as everyone seems to think. I tend to agree with him, but since Haren is under contract until 2013 we could have used him this year and traded him in the offseason for a pretty decent return (especially if he had a strong august and september). One of the reasons I read for the DBacks trading him for so little, is they were afraid he wasn't going to rebound to his 07-09 form. Much like the Rays had to do with Scott Kazmir. Turns out the rays were right about Kazmir, but I don't think the DBacks will be write about Haren. He is 29, and doesn't have an injury history like Kazmir does.

Hopefully this doesn't mean the Twins will just go out and sign Jarrod Washburn, since he sucks and we already have one crappy pitcher whose name ends in -burn. Why do we need another? Ted Lilly is still available, and I expect the Twins to pursue him pretty aggressively, only to not get him. Not that I want him. I also hope that Smith doesn't assume the rotation problem is fixed because of one non-terrible trip through it. Yes, everyone has pitched well in their most recent start, but that doesn't mean we can expect Baker and Slowey to be consistently good down the stretch.

Who else is out there that you would like to see the Twins go after? Are you as deathly afraid of Lilly as I am?

Well that sucked. But what should the Twins DO about it?

2010-07-16T00:00:00-07:00

At this point it seems likely that the Twins brain trust was hoping the All Star break would cure all their perceived ills -- namely, the consistently awful play by a significant portion of the roster. Last night's pathetic showing against the White Sox was just one game, but it was a veritable showcase of the team's ongoing problems. A starter that can't get through three innings, a long reliever that can't find the plate or go long, an offense that can only score when the opposing defense hands them extra outs, and a defense that lets any ball gets past them and plays with a level of urgency that suggests someone else should be out there instead. All of these were issues before the break, and every one of them reared its head in the first game after the break.

I doubt anyone will be able to convince Gardenhire and Bill Smith that actual changes to the roster are needed; in fact, I fear that they think "stay the course" is the way to go. But let's assume you got their ear ... what changes should the Twins make to spark the team and give them the best chance to win some ballgames?

Address the rotation

Liriano has been one of the best pitchers in the majors so far this year,* so the only thing he needs to change is the ridiculously bad support he's gotten from the defense and bullpen; Pavano has performed as well as could have been hoped, and if he keeps it up the Twins will have gotten well more than their money's worth by the end of the season. But that's about all the good things you can say about the rotation this year.

* Yesterday, there was quite the Twitterfight among the Twins blogosphere about Liriano's status as an "ace." Nick Nelson led the "Liriano has the best FIP, xFIP, tERA, WAR in the American League and if he didn't have an absurd .361 BABIP, that would be reflected in his ERA and WHIP and W/L record" side of the argument; Seth Stohs led the "Liriano's ERA and WHIP don't meet the requirements for being an Ace, therefore he's only a Very Good Pitcher" side. Guess who I sided with.

Meanwhile, the rest of the rotation has been an unmitigated disaster for the last two months. Slowey may still be recovering from his wrist injury, or getting accustomed to his newly-diminished stuff; he can only do that with innings, but he's not going to get those innings if he gets knocked out in the third inning of every start. Baker continues to be inconsistent, and no amount of calling him an Opening Day Starter or giving him a long term contract seems to make a dent in that problem. Blackburn has entered Phase Two of the Carlos Silva Career Path earlier than expected ... he probably won't see any success until he finds his way to the National League. So, what to do?

The number one priority should be to get Blackburn out of the rotation, post haste. As in, yesterday. It barely matters who replaces him, because whoever it is, there's a good possibility they won't be the worst pitcher in the league. Thus, upgrade. Fortunately, the Twins happen to have a viable replacement not only on the 40 man roster, but on the 25 man: Brian Duensing is in the bullpen, and he pitches more innings than Blackburn in most of Blackburn's starts anyway. So put Duensing in the rotation, and the Twins then have "at least a chance" in 20% more of their games. Blackburn, though, would be virtually useless in the bullpen. If the Twins can send him down to the minors and try to completely change his approach on the mound (perhaps emphasizing "don't throw meaty fastballs over the heart of the plate every single time" for starters), that'd likely be the best option.

Baker and Slowey, though, are tougher nuts to crack. Baker may still be a AAAA guy, but he's got his contract and his stuff is good enough that he could blow away AAA hitting; we can't send him down even if we wanted to. Slowey, even with his movement and command out of whack, is probably too good for AAA too; sending him down wouldn't help his long term recovery. Meanwhile, the Twins don't have anyone at AAA who could believably do a better job. Unless Bill Smith manages to swing a trade for Oswalt or Haren, Baker and Slowey are probably going to have to remain in the rotation; if we do acquire one of those aces, either Baker or Slowey should go to the bullpen. I think Baker's stuff would play better in the bullpen, but Baker's stuff also plays better in the rotation.

Shake up the bullpen

Rauch has performed well, as I expected, when he actually gets into the game. The problem is that he doesn't get into the game enough; Gardy uses him as a standard Closer, which means he only enters the game in the ninth inning with a three run lead, and those haven't been coming regularly. While that erases a big chunk of Rauch's value (namely that he's demonstrated an ability to throw a ton of quality innings in relief), I don't think the solution is to use Rauch more often. I think the solution is to get him more save opportunities. And you do that by improving the bullpen in front of them, so it's legitimately likely that they can protect a lead or keep the team in the game.

For all the insults hurled at Jesse Crain -- and the delightfully harsh nickname "Crain Wreck" -- he's been lights out over his last 20-or-so appearances. Whatever he's doing, he should keep doing it; and, importantly, Gardy should keep using him the same way. Which is to say: he shouldn't come into a game with men on base, and he shouldn't be used in day games.

After that, there have been nothing but problems. Guerrier has been really struggling lately, and I think that has a lot to do with overuse. Since Gardy doesn't (and shouldn't) trust anyone else in the bullpen, he leans on Guerrier pretty hard. He does this every year, and Guerrier struggles mightily until Gardy gives him a break and then slows down his usage. Guerrier will be fine once the rest of the pen is fixed.

Duensing has done well, but we already talked about him; he should be in the rotation for now.

So that leaves us with "the rest." Mahay, Burnett, Mijares, and the open spot left by moving Duensing to the rotation and Blackburn to purgatory.

First, Burnett. He had a good run when to start the season, but it seems the league has figured out his smoke-and-mirrors act. Since June 17, he's pitched in 11 games with a 10.24 ERA, and the Twins have lost all eleven games. He's giving up a hitting line of .432/.500/.818, he's given up as many homers as strikeouts, and even more walks. Last night, of course, was more of the same. He shouldn't be in the majors right now; it's time to send him down.

Mijares has given up only 5 runs all year, and since May 15 he's thrown in 19 games with a 1.17 ERA, and the league is hitting .207/.273/.273 against him. I'd say the main problem is that he's not seeing enough action, but that might be the reason he's been successful. I still don't trust him, but when success is so rare, I say don't mess with it.

Meanwhile, Mahay has seen similar success. He was a disaster from May 15 to June 1, during which time he only appeared in 4 games, but gave up 9 runs. Since then, though, He's appeared in 15 games with a 1.17 ERA, and the league is hitting .232/.259/.357 against him. There's not really anything wrong with that, but I don't think you need a pair of under-utilized LOOGYs in the bullpen, especially when the main problem with your most talented reliever is that you're using him way too often. If there's a better option in Rochester, I say Mahay becomes expendable; otherwise, might as well keep him and try to find more chances to use him.

Down at AAA Rochester, the Twins have a few interesting bullpen arms: Anthony Slama, Kyle Waldrop, Rob Delaney, and Pat Neshek.

I've been banging the Slama drum for some time now, but it's worth pointing out that so far this year he's pitched in 41 games, with a 1.43 ERA in 50.1 IP, racking up 61 K, 24 BB, and has given up just 24 hits. The organization's knock against him is that he doesn't have great "stuff" and he needs to work on his control, and a 4.3 BB/9 isn't great. At the same time, a 10.9 K/9 is great, and a 4.3 H/9 is out of this world. I don't care if his stuff doesn't look great to scouts, it apparently looks great to hitters. And he doesn't need to work on his control as long as his WHIP is under 1.00; nobody can hit him. There simply aren't any excuses any more. Slama needs to be called up as soon as possible.

Kyle Waldrop is more in the Twins' preferred mold, a low-K/no-BB guy. In 57.1 IP this year, he has a 2.04 ERA, with 6.1 K/9 (not that good) but a 1.9 BB/9 (awesome). He limits homers even better than Slama (0.3 HR/9 versus Slama's 0.4 HR/9). Waldrop would be a good option for a middle relief role; certainly better than Burnett.

Delaney has long been Slama's running mate at the back end of bullpens throughout the Twins' minor league organization. He's struggled some this year with hittability; despite an excellent 10.1 K/9 and reasonable 3.0 BB/9, he has a 5.80 ERA and 1.362 WHIP. He has a good arm and a history of high-K success, which is exactly what the Twins need right now, but he's not performing well enough right now to justify a call-up.

Neshek is still recovering from an injury, and he doesn't seem ready yet. In his last 10 appearances, he's given up 9 ER in 13 IP; his 10/3 K/BB ratio isn't bad, but the fact that he's given up 15 hits over that span tells me his stuff isn't moving like it should be. I continue to like Neshek, and I do think he'll be ready to come back to the Twins at some point this season. Now, though, is not that time.

So my conclusion with the bullpen is to send Burnett down, and fill his and Blackburn's spots on the roster with Slama and Waldrop. Those two should be able to handle any duty required of them in the 6th-8th innings, which will take a big load off Guerrier's shoulders and allow him to perform at his normal level.

Without a healthy Nathan/Neshek combo at the end of games, the Twins aren't going to have the best bullpen in the league. But that doesn't mean they shouldn't try to improve the unit as much as they can, and these moves do just that.

Adjust the lineup

I don't care that much about the lineup, but Delmon Young should not be batting at the bottom of the order. Yeah, it's cute that Dick Bremer likes to call him "the second cleanup hitter," since he's batting 8th. But he's also the second best hitter on the team ... and the first best is going on the DL for a while. Delmon simply needs to be moved higher in the lineup.

Meanwhile, Mauer's power has disappeared. He may be paid like a #3 hitter, but he hits (and supposedly walks) like a #2 hitter. Move Hudson to the bottom of the order -- he has been awful at the plate ever since his fateful collision with Span, and having him in front of Punto allows Gardy to get his fix of smallball craziness -- and have Mauer batting second, Delmon third, and for now, Thome fourth. Once Morneau returns, Thome can be pushed down to fifth or sixth, depending on how we're feeling about Cuddyer.

Speaking of Cuddyer, he's going to need some time off at some point. He's really been struggling badly, and there's no reason for him to continue to hit right in the middle of the order as if he's a dangerous hitter. He can be, when he's on. But he's not on, and he's showing no signs of getting on.

Plus, Span will need more time off as the summer progresses. I'd like to see Repko get some chances, primarily against left-handers. Oh ... and when he does, he doesn't have to bat leadoff.

Cut the dead weight

I've already been over the Blackburn/Burnett issues, so those don't need to be rehashed. But there are a couple other people who shouldn't ever be on the team, if the Twins have any illusions of trying to contend.

Number one on that list, the veritable Fuhrer of Futility, is Drew Butera. He didn't hit at AA, he didn't hit at AAA, and he hasn't hit in the majors. He has a "reputation" as a good defensive catcher, but I have this feeling that he only has that reputation because he can't hit at all. Has anyone else noticed that every time he's behind the plate, the pitching staff gets torched? I mean, that's been happening fairly regularly anyway, but at some point there's just no reason to hope it's a coincidence in order to protect the major-league-minimum paychecks of the worst player on the team. Butera's got to go, and he should be replaced by Jose Morales, who is an ideal backup catcher for the Twins. He's a switch hitter who can bat roughly .300, is athletic enough to run when needed, and is actually a good enough player that Mauer could get some rest sometimes. I don't know if you've noticed, but he's been performing badly and complaining about some nagging injuries for a while now, all while he's catching more innings than anyone else in the league. Something's got to give.

Meanwhile, Wilson Ramos is the Twins' catching prospect, and he should be catching every day. He's not catching every day as long as Morales is sharing duties with him at AAA; Morales, though, is not a prospect. He's older than Mauer, and is at the point of his career where his value to the Twins is not as part of a trade or in the hope that he develops into a good starter; his value is that he can be one of the best backup catchers in the league for the next 5-6 years for very little salary, and then leave as a 32 year old free agent in 2016 or so.

And while Matt Tolbert isn't currently on the roster due to a DL stint, he's worth bringing up right now because I've heard rumblings that the Twins want to replace Morneau with Tolbert as their ships pass each other on the causeway to the disabled list. If there's a more disappointing replacement for Morneau than Tolbert, let me know. We're talking about replacing the guy leading the AL in WAR with a below-replacement level bat boy. Instead of allowing Tolbert back onto the team, the Twins should use one of their other options at AAA. If they need an infielder, Luke Hughes remains their best option. If they'd like a first baseman, I wouldn't mind seeing Brock Peterson get a shot.

Oh, and if they need space on the 40 man roster, which they will, just allow me to ask this one question: what team is going to take Matt Tolbert off waivers? The Springfield Isotopes? There's no chance the Twins lose him on waivers. Which, in my mind, is unfortunate.

Will it even be enough?

Good question. I think it will. At the beginning of the season, the Twins were one of the top three teams in the league despite hitting poorly with men on base. Their division rivals, the Tigers and White Sox, are deeply flawed teams; I think it's fair to say that the White Sox will not continue to win 26 out of every 31 games, and will fall back to Earth sooner or later. The Tigers have just as significant issues with their rotation as the Twins do, and are relying on Brennan Boesch to continue hitting twice as well in the majors as he did in the minors.

With such easy competition, the Twins shouldn't need to burn down their house. They just need to throw out some of the unwelcome visitors and get some new blood. It's still too early to call this a lost season; remember, this is the most talented Twins club in many years, probably since 1991. With just a few adjustments, they should be set to make a serious run.

They just have to make those adjustments.

Your move, Bill Smith.

Optimism Shrivels

2010-07-14T00:00:00-07:00

So far this year, I've spent quite a bit of time banging the optimism drum quite a bit; more than most Twins fans and bloggers. There have been two distinct periods so far this season, which have caused somewhat similar consternation among the fan base.

The first period lasted roughly two months, up until the beginning of June. The Twins led the league in OBP, and were in the top three in both runs scored and runs allowed. Their team OBP indicated that they should have been scoring even more runs; they weren't scoring those runs, though, because of an absurd (and un-Twins-like) failure with runners in scoring position and a historic GIDP-rate. Throughout this period, I insisted that there wasn't anything to worry about, because OBP is a more stable statistic than hitting with runners in scoring position; the OBP, I thought, ought to remain high as the team started hitting with men on base. Additionally, I thought it was reasonable to expect that the Twins wouldn't actually shatter the all time record for double plays by 20%.

However, those arguments relied on the Twins maintaining the same approach and weathering the storm. That doesn't appear to have happened; rather than continue hitting and walking as they had been, the Twins have stopped walking, stopped getting on base, and stopped scoring. Span and Mauer in particular have seen their OBPs fall through the floor, but Delmon Young turned around his early-season walking ways and gone back to swinging freely. The team is now hitting about as well as could be expected with runners on base; unfortunately, there are now many fewer such opportunities.

This sudden change of approach, reverting back to the old Twins Way that Gardenhire is surely most comfortable with, is a mistake. Trying to slash out hits without walking, advancing aggressively on the basepaths, and hitting unusually well with runners in scoring position isn't supposed to be a viable strategy, though Gardy has shown he can make it work multiple times in the past. The problem is that this season, the roster is absolutely not constructed that way. This team, with Span as its fastest player, with Mauer/Morneau/Kubel/Thome/Cuddyer/Young/Hardy in the lineup, is designed to score runs by getting on base, getting on base, getting on base, and waiting for someone to smack an extra base hit.

Instead, it seems Gardy gave the conventional slugger offense "a chance," and then went right back to his old ways. It shows in the hitting lines of many players; they're swinging early in the count, getting behind, swinging defensively, and making outs instead of getting on base. They're clearly pressing at the plate. It is not working.

Much of my confidence in the Twins this year is based on previous seasons: they always seem to pull together and get into a groove during the summer, ripping off a long winning streak and putting themselves in a strong position for the stretch run. What could be different this time around?

Could it be that Gardy doesn't know how to play when ahead? When the Twins are behind in the standings, he can use that as a rallying cry and pull the team together. When the Twins happen to be ahead in the standings, regardless of how poorly they're playing, he can't seem to see any problems. During the midst of the June collapse, Gardy famously said "We're in first place!" He has not gotten back to us now that the obvious trends played out shortly afterward, leaving the Twins in third place.

Could it be that there aren't enough bad/exciting players to inspire the team? Say what you will about Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla, but I'll say this: the rest of the lineup couldn't rely on them for anything, but when they happened to do anything they managed to wreak havoc on the opposing team. This year, there are no black holes in the lineup; I naturally assumed that was a good thing, but it seems the players thought they could rely on their teammates to drive them in and, when that didn't start happening soon enough, stopped waiting and started flailing.

I'm beginning to come to grips with the possibility that these aren't your older brother's Twins,* and that we will not be well-served by waiting for things to turn around. Gardy doesn't know how to manage a team like this (which is probably why he had both Punto and Tolbert in the lineup together so often), and they no longer seem like a team that's getting bad breaks.

* Wait a minute, I'm the older brother. Whose Twins are these?

This is a team that's playing badly, swinging like they don't trust each other, defending like they don't care, pitching like they don't know how, and ... well, losing.

At this point, I don't think a midseason move can improve the team enough to matter. The Twins and their fans simply have to hope that whatever Bill Smith does, it's enough to inspire the team to believe in themselves again. Without that, they're going nowhere.

Can anyone think of legitimate reasons for optimism any more?

Welcome Jarrod Washburn

2010-07-13T00:00:00-07:00

Face it, we all know this is the "big" move the twins are going to make in the next few weeks. Very, very unfortunate.

How much is too much?

2010-07-08T00:00:00-07:00

After last night's frustrating loss (aren't they all) to those filthy Canadians, Buster Olney showed up on Baseball Tonight and said the Twins have offered Slowey and Ramos for Cliff Lee. I for one think that is a good deal. I like Aaron Hicks too much to trade him. Slowey is a very fine pitcher, but bottom line he is very replaceable. That Wimmers kid we drafted from tOSU looks like he can do exactly what Slowey has done over the years.

Aside: I also want to take this time to say that Jack Zduriencik (notice how I used his full name. Why do GMs need nicknames?) is highly overrated. Yes, the Mariners improved greatly the minute he showed up, but they were still a .500 non-playoff team. And it looks like they are going to finish well below that this year. Good for him, he was able to draft good players, he has had high draft picks and pretty deep pockets. He better draft good players. So can everyone stop sucking him off and treating him like some sort of deity? Thanks.

What do you guys think? Do you believe this rumor? Is it too much? Not enough?

Gardy Asks Bloggers For Tips

2010-07-01T00:00:00-07:00

I don't think I've actually included it in a blog post, but I've wanted to see Delmon batting third for a while now; he's been the Twins' best hitter for at least a month, he's just about the only guy on the team consistently hitting with runners on base, he's a right handed bat that'd split Mauer/Morneau up very nicely, and he's close to a good enough hitter that he can carry the 3 spot and push Mauer to the 2 spot where he belongs. I've mentioned this in the comments, and verbally while watching games. But it wasn't happening: instead, Delmon kept falling further and further down in the order, regularly batting 8th while everyone ahead of him slumped.

Then, yesterday, while I was getting ready to head off to Wrigley Field and miss the Twins game, I saw this:

Gardy on Delmon hitting third - "You guys all want him up there anyways. Or your bloggers do." #Twins
--@PMac21

Of course, the blogosphere is going to blow up just a little bit if Gardy attributes a move he made to what bloggers are writing. Personally, I doubt Gardy reads many blogs. But I'm guessing there are people in the organization who do read blogs, and maybe they relay some highlights* to Gardy from time to time.

* I suppose that'd be a good thing. I don't believe bloggers consistently know what they're talking about, but I also don't believe they are, as a group, utterly bereft of good ideas. I mean, I hope not. This is a blog, after al.

In a way, the move worked: Delmon drove in a run. In another way, it didn't work: he only went 1-4 on the day. In yet another, more accurate way, it doesn't matter: it's only one game. Regardless, when Mauer returns to the lineup, Gardy will probably slide him right back into his rightful spot, batting third. After all, we're not paying Mauer $23M per year to get on base and let the big hitters drive him in! We're paying for homers! Mauer bats third!

In the hope that Gardy is still listening, I have a few things to say:

Cuddyer seems to do better when you don't lean on him as the 4th or 5th hitter in the lineup
Delmon should keep batting third
Mauer is a natural-born 2-hitter (and is hitting .320/.384/.532 in his career when batting second)
You can't really keep running Blacburn* out there every five days unless something changes (like, for example, he learns how to be a pitcher)
When Mauer sits out, you move everyone around in the lineup (because it's dumb to have Butera bat third); but when anybody else sits, you say you don't want to screw up everyone else's spot in the order (somehow it's not dumb to have Tolbert bat second). It can't be both!

* Blacburn. I picked this up from Twitter, and I like it. If you're striking batters out at a historically-low rate, you don't get to have a K in your name.

Anybody else have suggestions for Gardy?

The Once and Future Kings?

2010-06-30T00:00:00-07:00

The Twins leapfrogged the Tigers and reclaimed first place on Tuesday night. As Tom Pelissero wrote last night, Nick Blackburn was just OK, and that was good enough.

The Twins "offense first" lineup did exactly what everyone expected them to do: score a boatload of runs. Blackburn induced 12 groundouts, and more importantly he got a first pitch strike on 23 of the 29 batters he faced. I'm not saying he has turned a corner and we don't need another starter, but if our 3 headed monster of Baker-Blackburn-Slowey and be just OK, our offense should pick them up. It seems that on that dreadful roadtrip (and for most of June) we were often down early, and the offense would either a) give up immediately or b) not wake up until it was 2 outs in the 8th and we are down 4. Even Monday's loss was encouraging in that regard because we started getting those first inning runs back pretty early.

Hopefully Slowey can follow in Blackburn's footsteps and not get in an early hole, and keep the Tigers from scoring in bunches. Hopefully the offense does the rest.

Panic Button?

2010-06-29T00:00:00-07:00

Well, my hand has been hovering over the big red panic button for days now. I think I'm ready to push it. The offense doesn't worry me too much, we have the pieces we just need to get them clicking at the same time. A right handed bat would help, but Smith should be using every piece of ammo he has to get an elite starting pitchers (Cliff Lee or maybe Dan haren). The bullpen has been shocking decent. It is the starting rotation that is just downright bad.

Nick Blackburn is not a good pitcher. Any pitcher who relies on pitching to contact is a ticking timebomb. So instead of trading him after two solid years, the twins sign him to a contract extension? I was puzzeld then, but everyone said "he is solid and consistent! its a great move!". Now I have the evidence to say this: Look you idiots! He isn't a good pitcher, that was a fucking horrible move to lock up a pitcher who is only going to get worse when you don't need to. The bum was under team control anyway. His FIP was always higher than his ERA, except this year because his ERA is 6! Can't really get higher than that.

So I have this to say to Bill Smith: Do whatever it takes to trade for Cliff Lee, and in the meantime get blackburn out of the rotation. Are we really willing to let him "try to right the ship" again tonight? When a loss puts us even further back. Unacceptable.

That is all. Sorry about the infrequent posting. I know I have been busy at my real job, which sadly is infinitely more important than the blog since it, you know, pays my mortgage. I'm assuming Sean is busy as well.

The Curse of Success

2010-06-16T00:00:00-07:00

Anytime a player I hate succeeds, I get pretty upset. When Jesse Crain throws 2 scoreless innings in a game that has already been decided, I seethe. When Matt Tolbert (and to a lesser extent, Punto) hits a homer in a blowout victory, I want to throw a remote through my television. Why? Because it gives them one more chance. People like Tolbert and Crain make a career out of a string of "one more chances". If Crain pitches well in a blowout, Gardy will give him a shot the next day in a close game. If he screws up, well, it's back to garbage time. When he succeeds there, Gardy says "Wow, he looks good. Let's give him a shot in a high leverage situation" It's like the baseball version of cycle of poverty, except since it is baseball it matters more.

If the game is on the line, I don't care who gets the big hit, or who pitches the scoreless innings out of the bullpen. In blowout games though, is it so much to ask that Jesse Crain gets lit up, or that Tolbert makes two errors and strikes out looking on 3 pitches? Now, I know what you're saying. "How can it be a close game if our secondbaseman is playing like shit?" Well, humor me and let's say it can happen.

Am I the only one who gets a little upset when these worthless fringe major leaguers play well?

Who else do you hate to see succeed? Doesn't have to be a Twins player.

Checking back in on the bullpen

2010-06-09T00:00:00-07:00

A little over a month ago I wrote a post highlighting (or lowlighting) the Twins bullpen through the first month of the season. I think its time to take another look at the unit some said would cost the Twins the division.

Jon Rauch

23 ip, 6.65 k/9, 1.17 BB/9, .334 BABIP, 2.74 ERA

Rauch has racked up 15 saves, and converted all but two of them. He hasn't had overpowering stuff, as his K/9 is pretty low, probably about half what Nathan's was at his best. But he is getting the job done. For now. I don't think he has done anything to make Gardenhire remove him from the job, but we should keep a close eye on him. Rauch seems like the kind of pitcher who falls apart quickly. We don't get one red flag at a time, they will come in bunches.

Matt Geurrier

48ip, 6.38 K/0, 2.81 BB/9, .293 BABIP, 3.75 ERA

Guerrier's ERA comes in slightly below is FIP, and his BABIP is in line with league average, so we shouldn't see any huge blowups (or tremendous improvements) the rest of the season. Like Rauch, his strikeout numbers are underwhelming for a late inning reliever, but he gets the job one. He had a very good April (.73 ERA in 12.1 innings) and a much more pedestrian May (2.45 ERA in 11 innings) but that is the kind of pitcher he is. I value consistency in relief pitchers (as long as they are consistently good).

Brian Duensing

23.2 IP, 5.32K/9, 2.28 BB/9, .221 BABIP, 1.52 ERA

Duensings FIP is almost 2 runs higher than his ERA, and his BABIP is very low, so I expect him to regress to the mean at some point. He has been a very nice surprise as a multi inning reliever, and I hope he can keep it up.

Jose Mijares

11.2 IP, 6.17 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, .306 BABIP, 2.31 ERA

After a disastrous start to the season, followed by a stay on the DL, Mijares has turned things around a little. His ERA is still way out of line compare to his FIP, and he showed last night he is still capable of melting down even in low leverage situation. I don't think I'll every really trust him, but hopefully he bounced back from last night and returns to his May form. A month in which he was pretty awesome

Alex Burnett

28.1 IP, 7.31 K/9, 3.49 BB/9 .288 BABIP, 2.54 ERA

Burnett has been the biggest surprise of the season thus far. He leads all relievers in innings pitched, and strikeouts. His FIP and ERA are pretty well aligned, and his BABIP isn't off the charts high or low. Expect him to chug along and be a very useful reliever for the Twins for the rest of the season and beyond.

Ron Mahay and Jesse Crain

Neither of these pitchers is very good. I think we seriously need to consider replacing both of them in the near future. That is all.

Kill the Umpire! (And replace him with a robot.)

2010-06-03T00:00:00-07:00

Last night, my Twitter feed alerted me to the fact that Armando Galarraga of the Tigers was eight innings into a perfect game -- I wasn't going to miss a chance to see that! So I fired up the MLB.tv app on the PS3, to watch the end of the game. Because the PS3 app suffers an annoyingly large delay between reality and broadcasting reality, I got in just after the second out of the ninth inning. At least I was in time to see the last out.

And I did see it. I thought.

Of course, it was a close play. They're all close plays. That's why umpires get paid the big bucks; because it's tough to make those calls. Maybe I'm mistaken, though. It could be because they're supposed to be good at getting those tough calls correct, in which case they've been doing an increasingly bad job lately. And this downswing in the quality of umpires is only made worse by the fact that they didn't exactly start the decline from a point of doing a good job. No, they've been doing a bad job, and now it's gotten worse.

I was flabbergasted. Of course I'd never seen a perfect game blown -- by an umpire -- on the 27th out before. I'm fairly certain nobody has ever seen that. And nobody ever should. The peak of Armando Galarraga's career happened last night, and a human mistake by an ever-so-human umpire robbed him of having his name in the record books, right next to Roy Awesome Halladay, for the rest of eternity. Jim Joyce had foisted his second foul-smelling masterpiece/turd on the world; the first, of course, being Finnegan's Wake. (What? Different Joyce? I don't believe you.)

For years now, I've been a big proponent of instant replay. My thoughts are probably among the most aggressive on the spectrum; I say there should be a fifth umpire, up in the booth, of all the games. Maybe he has a team of guys, I don't care. But he should be watching every single call. If he sees the umpires get something wrong, he hits a button that lets him talk to the umpires on the field, tell them they were incorrect, and relay the proper call to them so it's instantly fixed on the field.

It wouldn't take long -- the only reason instant replay for home runs takes a long time is because we let the four umpires stand in the middle of the field for a few minutes, asking each other if there's any way they can convince themselves that "oh yeah, I'm 100% sure I made the right call, man," and then when they realize they can't, they all slowly pretend to jog off the field and go into some secret room in the bowels of the stadium where we have to assume they're actually watching a replay, for an indefinite length of time.

Here's my question: If the reason for wanting to avoid instant replay was because it'd take too much time, why would they design a system for instant replay that is literally guaranteed to take the longest possible amount of time?

The guys working for the TV station can slow down the video and pause an HD picture exactly at the moment required for making the decision, and they can do it in a matter of seconds. In every situation instant replay has been used, the fans have seen the play on television and know the correct call long before the umpires have even decided to slink underneath the bleachers. In every situation instant replay should be used on other close calls, all the fans have seen the play on television before the next play starts, and know the correct call. As far as I can tell, the only reason this takes so long is because the umpires desperately want to remain in the center of the game, an integral part of the sport. I wonder if they realize that it only makes people hate them all the more.

Several hours later,* the Twins and Mariners were finishing up a surprisingly long game given the low score and paucity of baserunners. Kevin Slowey and Cliff Lee had both pitched brilliantly; Slowey's only run came on a single-steal-steal-sacrifice-fly, and Lee's had come on a solo home run, his first of the season. Good game.

* West coast games should not be allowed to go to extra innings. Am I right, folks?

I went to bed in the 9th inning, because it was well past my typical bed time and I needed to get up in the morning because for some reason I'm paid to do something other than watching baseball. I figured that the Twins had no chance in this one, given that the last image I saw before turning off the TV was Crain and Mijares warming up side by side. I mean, they can't both pitch well in the same game.

Naturally, the Twins lost. Crain got through an inning, but Guerrier failed to get all the way through two of them and Mijares came in to give up a hit to the only batter he faced. Awesome. Seeing the box score the moment I woke up, I thought nothing more about it.

Then I found out how the game ended. See that? Where the runner is clearly out? Well, that would have been the third out of the 10th inning; instead, the umpire called him safe, a run scored on the play, and the game was over.

If nothing else, this is yet another heartwarming tale of solidarity among umpires. When one umpire makes an egregiously bad call and is sure to be crucified for it, another one is always eager to jump to the front of the line and boldly declare: "No, he's not the only one. Check out this call!" At least that's what I'd like to think, because the alternative is that just about every umpire in the majors is just horseshit at their jobs and are constantly getting calls wrong, in ever more crucial situations.

A lot of people today are demanding that Selig overturn Joyce's call and hand a perfect game to Galarraga. Somehow. Of course, that's ludicrous. Once the game is in the books, it's in the books. You can't open the door to rewriting history by undoing the mistakes of umpires past. What's the statute of limitations on that? Are we going to replay the final innings of that playoff game against the Yankees last year, when Phil Cuzzi called Mauer's double a foul ball because it was only two feet fair? Are we going to replay the 1996 World Series with the Orioles instead of the Yankees, because of that botched home run call? No, of course not.

The problem is that these mistakes keep happening, and despite the existence of a way to prevent them, a huge contingent of baseball itself and its fans would rather stick to the old tradition of "well, hopefully everyone gets fucked over roughly the same amount, so it balances out." Seems fair, right? We surely wouldn't want to sully this great game of baseball by allowing some inscrutable system make calls that we're not allowed to question for any reason whatsoever. That'd be crazy!

Wait, was I describing a future world of mysterious robot umpires, or was that the current system?

The way I like to think about it is like this: If Abner Doubleday, when he invented baseball, had had the option of using super robot umpires who magically got every call right and there was never any question of human errors or holding grudges or aging eyesight, would he have chosen to go with that or is there something mystical about having an angry old man on the field who can arbitrarily decide what's an out and what isn't?

No, I'm pretty sure he'd have gone with the magical robots. And guess what? Every stadium in baseball is currently equipped with those magical robots, and basically their only purpose is to instantly demonstrate how bad the umpires are. Well, and to show the good calls too. You'll notice that TV commentators often say things like "imagine trying to make that call without slow motion!" Yeah, we get it. Being an umpire is really, really hard. The personal attacks against umpires are wrong, and we shouldn't do that.

But ... MLB needs to ask itself a question. What is more important to the game? Getting these calls right, or protecting the fragile egos of the men on the field? Not the players, of course, those guys can shut their mouths and pay their fines and like it. The fragile egos of the umpires are the ones that need to be protected, right? They're the guys people pay money to see.

If the egos are what's important, then they don't need to make any changes. (Except maybe prepare for a precipitous drop in revenue as the fans they've finally managed to win back realize there's no reason to trust a game whose rules can arbitrarily change on the whims of people whose job title includes "complete lack of accountability.") On the other hand, if baseball is what's important, it's time to upgrade.

Frankly, I expect Selig to make some sort of empty statement in which he says he's disappointed or something, then he'll return to his dank hole where he'll twiddle his thumbs and wait for something else to happen that will drive these unpleasant events from the top of the news and he can assume that we've all forgotten about it. The problem is that nobody is going to forget.

I say it's time to bring on the magical robot umpires.

What do you think?

Slama Probably Won't Arrive Until 2011

2010-06-02T00:00:00-07:00

Aaron Gleeman had a chance to interview John Manuel, a Baseball America editor, about Twins prospect Anthony Slama. Manuel points out that Slama's not on the 40-man roster, and that the Twins haven't called added him to it because there are other guys they want to see first, like Alex Burnett, Anthony Swarzak, Glen Perkins, Loek Van Mil, Deolis Guerra, and Estarlin del los Santos.

He goes so far as to say he doesn't "see a lot of dead weight on the 40-man roster," ie, there's no obvious person for the Twins to discard in order to add Slama. I have this feeling that many Twins fans would disagree with him about the amount of dead weight on the roster, but I'm not going to go there today.

Is Slama so much better than what they have in the majors that he's worth losing a player to another organization by removing him off the 40-man? I think they consider that answer to be no, and I can see that. Stuff-wise, Slama isn't better than what they have. He's just better in terms of his minor-league dominance, which has gone on for three years.

Once again, I see this as a sort of litmus test of your baseball fandom -- ie, what you think of Anthony Slama says more about you than it says about Slama himself.

If you think the Twins should definitely call him up because of his absurd strikeout numbers in the minors, that seems a valid opinion. If you think the Twins are right in being conservative with him because his raw stuff isn't spectacular and, from looking at him, you wouldn't think he'd be able to dominate hitters, well, that seems like a valid opinion too.

Personally, I don't think you can dominate the minor leagues like this over a period of multiple years without having enough talent to succeed in the minor leagues -- however you're doing it. And I think it's likely that Slama is a better reliever than a few guys on the roster; Crain, for one.

But given Slama's status off the 40-man roster, and all those guys Manuel mentioned that the Twins want to check out before they promote Slama, it seems unlikely that we'll see him in the majors before 2011. The Twins obviously think it's worth more to the team to evaluate all these other options rather than risk losing the wrong one to promote a guy too early -- especially a guy they don't see as clearly worth the risk.

As much as I'd like to see Slama and his mustache that is, allegedly, an "80 porn stache on the 20-80 scale," I can't fault the Twins for what they're doing here. I also don't want to risk losing the wrong guy to waivers before knowing which guy certainly isn't going to be the wrong guy.

So, where do you stand on Slama?

Don't expect to see Kyle Gibson this year

2010-05-30T00:00:00-07:00

Kyle Gibson, the Twins' 2009 first round draft choice, has so far exceeded even the expectations set by being considered a top-10 pick and by the well-above-slot signing bonus the Twins gave him after he slipped to them at the 22nd pick.

He debuted in A+ ball down in Fort Myers, and dominated: 7 starts, 4-1, 1.87 ERA, 40/12 K/BB, keeping the ball on the ground. After earning a promotion to AA, he's been even better: 3 starts, 3-0, 0.84 ERA, 20/2 K/BB, 0.797 WHIP. If it weren't for some other hot-shot pitcher raping the minor leagues this year, people might be taking notice of the fact that Gibson seems far too good for the hitters he's faced so far this year. Indeed, Twins fans have become excited, lately, that Gibson may be able to move quickly through the system just as Liriano, Garza, Slowey, and others have done in the past.

The Twins must be paying attention to the fans' attitude, because they've come out to tamp down expectations that we'd see Gibson this year.

"The plan was for him, I think, to be in Fort Myers all year and get in 150 innings and get shut down, the first year coming off that thing," Gardenhire said. "They had to move him because pitching was really thin throughout the system."

Pitching is thin throughout the system, all of a sudden? Anyhow, how would Gardy know? When someone asked him recently about Danny Valencia, he responded "Danny who?" Like Ron Gardenhire knows anything at all about the state of the Twins' farm system. Sounds like a ruse to me.

Unless, of course, you take it to mean "They had to move him because pitching of this caliber is really thin throughout the system," because that'd be true. But then you "had to move him" because he's the best pitching prospect you've got. Not through some fault of the other guys. Whatever.

The original strategy to limit his innings makes some sense given Gibson's injury history -- the reason he fell to the Twins in the first place was that he'd broken his forearm during his senior season in college. It's supposed to be an injury that won't effect his pitching career, but it's still a good idea to stay cautious and go slowly with him.

It's not like the Twins are really strapped for pitching right now, anyway; their team ERA of 3.74 is 3rd best in the league, and nobody in the rotation is making a case to be replaced.

"I'm happy for them, but I also know our organization," Gardenhire said. "You people think fast track to the big leagues, and some of our fans watch these things and think fast track. That's not how we do things. We develop and give them plenty of time."

That's really all there is to it, I think. Barring some seriously unexpected event later on, we shouldn't expect to see Kyle Gibson in Minnesota in 2010. And there's nothing wrong with that.

With One Swing of the Bat, Kubel Makes it All Better

2010-05-28T00:00:00-07:00

With one lightning-quick swing of the bat, Jason Kubel erased much of my frustrations from the past several days; with the Twins clinging to a two run lead that was seeming more and more assailable with each passing minute, Kubel launched a glorious drive deep to right center field, where it eventually disappeared into the twilight.

I'd hoped, at the time, that it had left the stadium altogether. I've been waiting for that to happen, and I figure there are three guys most likely to do it, in this order:

Morneau
Thome
Kubel

And for one fleeting moment, I thought Kubel had done it. I still don't know exactly what happened to the ball, but from the way the replays show fans scrambling around back there it sure seemed like the ball had stayed in the park. Oh, well.

To answer all the griping by Twins players that they can't hit a home run at Target Field, Kubel showed how to do it: just keep on hitting the ball harder until it goes out. He showed us again that his method works, by blasting a three-run homer later in the game to ice it, to let us all relax a little bit and enjoy the end of a game in which the Twins dominated the Yankees.

Throughout the game, but especially early on, the Twins' luck was steadfastly doing everything it could not to change for the better. Of the first six outs the Twins made, four of them were made on rocket line drives right at a guy; still, the Twins were up 3-0.

I'd been trying hard, very hard, not to overreact to the Twins' bad luck on balls in play over the weeks. Eventually, I assumed, the luck would turn and the Twins would finally start seeing some hits fall in and some balls go over the fence. But I cracked, and the frustration became too much to bear. That's what happens, I suppose, when so many consecutive opportunities come up short. I'd begun to wonder if the Twins needed to change their approach, if they needed to get back to the style of offense that had worked for them in years past: get-em-on, get-em-over, get-em-in. Sure, the Twins are built for the long ball, are built for the big inning, are a team full of prodigious sluggers; but, I thought, it's not working. It's time for a change.

The players, though, did not see it that way; for that I'm glad. Rather than change who they are or how they're supposed to play, the way they set about to overcome this unlucky BABIP streak was to just keep hitting the ball. It went into someone's glove? Fuck it, hit the next one even harder. Javier Vazquez was basically just throwing batting practice to the Twins' hitters; one line drive after another had a vapor trail, pieces of horsehide and bits of stitching were flying off the ball, again and again, as the Twins ripped them all over the field.

Sure, some still found a glove. Many did. But the line drives kept coming, and finally they were finding the gaps, they were bouncing off the wall, and they were flying far over the fence. It's a great feeling.

Nick Nelson is a Twins blogger who does a much better job than I do of staying calm and balanced, and tends not to overreact to the daily slings and arrows. Yesterday, he posted an article in which he set up the 2008 Twins' unnatural successes with RISP and compared them to the 2010 Twins' mirror performance, bringing it home thusly:

So is this team, which includes many of the same players as that 2008 group, simply less clutch? No. It's not like batters are stepping up and completely abandoning their approach at the plate in key situations -- they're striking out and walking with about the same frequency as would be expected. It's what happens when the ball is put in play that is killing them; the 2010 Twins' overall batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .305, but with runners on second and third that drops to .190. With the bases loaded, it drops to .175.

Compare that to the 2008 squad which saw its overall .316 BABIP shoot up to .332 with runners in scoring position. Their BABIP with runners on second and third was .351; with the bases loaded, .324. In '08, batted balls would consistently find a place to land in big spots. This year, in key run-scoring opportunities, line drives are continually falling into outfielders' gloves and hard-hit grounders are turning into double plays rather than seeing-eye singles.

If you recall, at the time we were all trying to figure out if the Twins actually were better at hitting in the clutch than most other teams; after all, Gardy loves to practice situational hitting, and emphasizes getting the run in. Maybe it actually works? We were defending the Twins against the more impartial analysts who insisted that those BABIP numbers were simply too high to continue. Well, the Twins' good luck on balls in play lasted all season -- it did eventually regress back to normal, but it took a long time. The same thing very well could happen again.

But today is not a day to worry about the BABIP Bogeyman coming to get us. Today is a day to bask in all those line drives, and in those two long home runs. To feel good about a dominant 8-2 victory over the Yankees. To find out if we really do feel good about going 2-4 against the Yankees this year, a vast improvement over previous seasons. To chuckle at Yankees fans who are ready to meet Javier Vazquez at the airport with torches and pitchforks.

Yesterday, I offered up a solution to the Twins woes -- rush a prospect through the system in hopes of sparking the offense and giving the outfielders some much-needed rest. It wasn't exactly my proudest moment.

Then, last night, the Twins offered up a solution of their own -- just keep smashing the ball, harder and harder, until the runs finally come.

Their solution is much more satisfying. Now here's hoping they keep it up through the weekend.

The Twins Need a Spark

2010-05-27T00:00:00-07:00

The way the Twins are playing is getting more and more frustrating; the fanbase is inching closer and closer to a Twitter riot with every rally that dies just before a runner crosses the plate. It's beginning to look like the steady stream of baserunners may dry up before they finally start getting converted into a much-more-valuable steady stream of runs.

Meanwhile, the Twins' players have been complaining loudly about just how insanely hard it is to hit a home run at Target Field. The whining at least seems born out by reality -- Morneau and Cuddyer especially have repeatedly put a ball onto a path that sure seems like it's going into orbit, only to have the ball plummet to earth on the warning track. Just yesterday, JJ Hardy and Joe Mauer suffered the same fate, with well-struck fly balls finding a glove on the warning track in left-center.

"Yeah," [Morneau] said. "I mean, we're a team with a lot of experienced, quality hitters, and you want to be able to feel like we can hit that big three-run homer when we need it. This team is built around that.

"The one that got me, against the White Sox, that ball I hit off Joe Thornton ... the guy is throwing 97, I square it up, I feel like the ball should leave, I feel like it should be a 5-4 game after that, and then if we can get one on in the ninth we can tie it up.

"Instead, that ball gets caught, we're down 5-2 going into the ninth and we have to score three off their closer. This team is built more for the three-run homer than for hitting balls into the gap for doubles and triples.

"We'll see what happens. We haven't had a long stretch where it's been 80-plus degrees to see if the ball is going to carry. And any day, coming here is better than playing in the dome."

This is the first time in decades (literally, decades) that the Twins have been "built around" hitting the three run homer; for so long, the Twins haven't been a big walks-and-homers club, and had built their offense around stringing together a bunch of hits. The numbers say that model isn't sustainable, which is one reason modern stats guys haven't been high on the Twins of the last decade.

But the thing about relying on the big home run is that sometimes the home runs don't come. Other teams and fanbases have had to learn this over the years, but the Twins are just seeing it for the first time since the 80s. There's something to be said for "acting like you've been there before," but this year the Twins are in uncharted territory. This is an offense unlike any that Gardy has seen, unlike any that Mauer and Morneau and Cuddyer and Kubel have ever been a part of, and clearly, something isn't working.

Today, Marc Hulet of FanGraphs took a look at a Twins prospect who has surprised many analysts who thought the Twins had made a big mistake by drafting him in the first round, back in 2007. Most teams had him in the third round -- that is, those teams who considered him a potential draft target in the first place, which wasn't many. It was considered a big reach by the Twins, and opened the front office to calls of "cheap!" -- any time a team drafts someone way ahead of where they'd otherwise go, it's seen as a "signability pick," designed to save money in draft bonuses.

But this prospect was Ben Revere, who has done nothing but impress since he entered the Twins' system. Here are his numbers for each year in the system:

Age 19, Rookie ball: 50 G, .325/.388/.461, 21 SB, 6 2B, 10 3B, 0 HR
Age 20, Low-A: 83 G, .379/.433/.497, 44 SB, 17 2B, 10 3B, 1 HR
Age 21, High-A: 121 G, .311/.372/.369, 45 SB, 13 2B, 4 3B, 2 HR
Age 22, AA: 42 G, .313/.387/.380, 17 SB, 6 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR

I'd say some of the shine was washed off his star when he left Beloit and was promoted to Fort Myers; he played in 50% more games but had 50% fewer extra base hits. But everyone knows that Revere isn't going to hit for much power -- and to his credit, he hasn't tried to adjust to the lack of power-hitting results by overswinging. Perhaps the most impressive thing about Revere is that in his four years in the minors, he has 101 strikeouts and 97 walks.

Put it this way: Revere has Span-like plate discipline with Gomez-like speed.

Although he’s never been promoted in-season by the Twins, this could be the year that the organization decides to change things up. Revere is close to being MLB-ready and is hitting .415/.489/.537 with six steals in his last 10 games. The organization lacks depth in the outfield at triple-A and if the MLB club needs an injury replacement for the second half of the season, Revere might be the type of player that can provide a playoff-seeking club a real boost.

I've been saying for a few weeks now that Span could really use a day off; this is precisely the tough situation the Twins should have known they'd find themselves in, with a roster full of high-power players on the unfortunate side of the defensive spectrum, and not a single player legitimately capable of calling himself a backup center fielder. Span may need a break, but Gardy can't give him one. You don't want to see Cuddyer patrolling CF, or Casilla, do you? Both have happened this year, and so far it hasn't bit the Twins. It's bound to, at some point.

But with Revere demonstrating plate discipline beyond his years and the slimmest-possible chance that he'll develop more power as he ages, maybe it's time to start pushing him through the system. Send him up to AAA soon, let him acclimate to that environment for a while (it didn't take him long to adjust to AA, or any of the other leagues he's been promoted to), and hope he's ready to join the big club in a backup role at some point later in the season.

If the Twins still need a spark by then, they'll be set up for yet another dramatic late season surge to the playoffs. If not, at least it'll be nice to be able to rest the outfielders as the season winds down. If Revere can hold down a .360+ OBP in the 9th spot in the order, bunting people into scoring position or running himself into scoring position in front of the Span/Hudson/Mauer/Morneau gauntlet, it could be exactly what the Twins need. Additionally, it would give Gardy the flexibility not only to give Span a day off, but to move Span to either corner to give Cuddyer and Young days off of their own.

I haven't been all that high on Revere over the past few years, and have pondered whether the Twins might be best off trading him while he's still a promising prospect; but if other teams and analysts don't know anything about him,* his trade value probably isn't that high.

* This gets back to the "hype factor" of trading prospects that I've mentioned a few times in the past: basically, teams that are successfully able to hype up their own prospects are able to get a lot more for them in a trade than teams that can't. Of course, the media is a HUGE part of the hype factor. This is why the Red Sox were able to trade Justin Masterson to the Indians for Victor Martinez; Martinez remains a star-caliber major league player, while Masterson has posted a 5.26 ERA and 1.725 WHIP since joining the Indians. Clearly not a fair deal in retrospect, but at the time of the trade, Masterson was a very highly regarded prospect. Presumably only because the Red Sox have mastered the art of pumping up the hype machine for their prospects.

But the Twins don't necessarily need to trade Revere to get what they need from him, even assuming he'll never turn into a star player. The Twins as currently constructed are a slow team with a whole bunch of guys likely to hit under .300 (but still be productive over the course of the season thanks to walks and extra base hits); if they have a need, it's for a speedy backup outfielder with a high batting average and the ability to steal bases and/or distract the pitcher.

Once they start thinking about actually filling that need, they may find that the solution is right under their noses.

Washout

2010-05-26T00:00:00-07:00

Well, that wasn't very much fun. But this is what we signed up for, right? Baseball in the elements. MLB raincheck policy is kind of a bummer, but logistically, this was the only move they could make. It would have been near impossible to get everyone in for the last 4 innings tomorrow afternoon, then out in time for the 6pm ticket holders. There is also apparently some huge event today at Target Center that is supposed to draw 20 thousand people. It is unfortunate that this had to happen during a game where ticket prices were probably at their highest, but as Forrest Gump said "Shit happens".

Duensing is scheduled to being the sixth at 4pm tonight, and hopefully the bats come alive and the Twins can pull out two victories today.

Playing Loose, or Losing Faith?

2010-05-26T00:00:00-07:00

We can put men on base.

The Twins have had a lot of baserunners this year, seemingly able to load the bases at will; often doing it multiple times per game. Again and again, they put a man on third with fewer than two outs. They've given themselves many, many opportunities to score.

The next guy still has a chance to drive these runs in.

This nearly-constant flow of baserunners, this ongoing, apparently unstoppable stream of hits and walks, has led many people -- myself included -- to simply expect that at some point, the runs must come. The ability to get on base is the key to a good offense, and the Twins have been near the league lead in walks all season, led by Morneau's otherworldly OBP pushing .500; and they are scoring runs, finding themselves among the league leaders in runs scored.

We're not hitting homers, what if we don't start? What if the runs don't come?

But they lead the league in men left of on base, and they lead the league in team GIDP. Those are things that grind on you, as a fan. With every burgeoning rally wiped out by another taylor-made grounder to short, your shoulders slump a little more. As it goes, you start expecting these bums to fail.

It's like in that Simpsons episode, Dancin' Homer, when the Isotopes are down to their final out and need a bit hit, the announcer says "And, after he pops out, we'll go straight to the postgame."

With all these rallies getting snuffed out, we need to come through with a big hit. Big swing here.

Over the first several weeks of the season, I've been preaching a very patient approach to the Twins' struggles with men on base. It's pretty likely there are people -- even those who would agree that the Twins' performance with the bases occupied is bound to improve at some point -- who would say I've been too adamant in my stance that there's really nothing to worry about. That if we just keep waiting, the runs will come.

Nuts, got under it. Crap, topped that one to short. Swinging too hard?

The thing is, this is the kind of thing that can dwell in your mind. It can nag at you. And the nagging gets loudest when you find yourself in the biggest, most important spots of the game. That's when the doubt sets in most.

Another inning-ending double play. Of course.

Now, I have a question. You see all those italics up there? I've thought every one of those things, during many games this season. Sometimes I tweeted it, sometimes I texted Robert, sometimes I mentioned it to my dad on Skype, and sometimes I'd just keep it to myself. Probably most of the time I kept it to myself; after all, you're supposed to take it easy with these minor, individual events. Millions of them happen over the course of a long season, and some go your way and some don't, and you don't want to be too annoying. I don't, anyway. I don't know how successful I am, though.

Anyhow, I imagine a lot of people have shared those thoughts, and have felt that same doubt. I know that some people have, because I've argued against them plenty.

My main fear is that some of the people who're thinking those poisonous italic sentences happen to be in the dugout. That the players share my doubts; that would change everything. Players aren't supposed to suffer those doubts, they're not supposed to worry the same way a fan does. If they are, we're in trouble. More importantly, they have to stop before they can start hitting.

When I tell myself it's okay to relax and expect the runs to come, in a big way I'm expecting that the players aren't worried about it, that they're able to put these individual micro-events of the baseball season behind them. That's their job. It's part of being a baseball player. But ... am I believing in them too much?

When individual players have a slump, they say in interviews (long after the slump is over) that it can drive you crazy, and you can start subconsciously tweaking your mechanics, and you get even more out of whack, and before you know it the slump has taken on a life of its own. You've created a monster. After so much time, it's conceivable that such a thing may be able to effect an entire team at once -- and if so, the symptoms would look an awful lot like the Twins' recent foibles.

I'm talking about something kind of fuzzy here, so I hope you'll forgive me if I go a little anecdotal here. Here are some normally-minor events from Wednesday night's game:

Cuddyer finally batted with nobody on in front of him, and he connected on one and drove a double deep to right center. Standing on second base, he was smiling, like a weight was lifted off his shoulders.
Hudson got a good cut in and hit a hard line drive straight back up the middle, but Pettitte managed, somehow, to leap up and catch it, ending Hudson's bid for a hit before he'd gotten out of the batter's box. His head tilted back and he showed off a wry smile.
Delmon came through with a double that drove in a run (from first); a batter later, he was picked off while napping on a grounder back to the pitcher. Back in the dugout, Delmon had a big smile* on his face and was chatting happily with teammates.

* We keep saying that with Delmon's defensive abilities, he'll have to hit like Manny Ramirez to be a good player. (Kind of like the real Manny Ramirez.) Well, continuing to bask in that RBI's warm glow even after costing the team a runner in scoring position by making a boneheaded mistake was just Delmon Being Manny.

Are these the signs of a team playing loose? Or are they signs of a team that's losing faith in itself?

Your answer probably says more about you than it does about the team.

At least ... I'd sure like to think so.

Twins-Yankees: Redux

2010-05-25T00:00:00-07:00

The Yankees come to town tonight for a three game series. The Twins will send Baker, Liriano and Blackburn to the mound, while the Yanks counter with Burnett, Pettitie, and Vazquez.

In an ideal world, the Twins will take two of three, giving us a season split with New York. Hopefully the momentum from the Brewers series will carry over. Being at home obviously helps, so I don't think taking two of the three games is a very tall order at all. Unfortunately, the Yankees are not just another opponent. As I mentioned two weeks ago, there is a "Yankee stigma". However, for the first time in a long time we can come into a game against the Yankees and say "We beat them the last time we played them". I think this will help counteract the usual negative mindset Twins players (and coaches) seem to have going into every Yankee game.

What do you guys think the outcome of this series will be? What, if anything, does it NEED to be?

Trevor Plouffe gets called up, why is everyone so excited?

2010-05-21T00:00:00-07:00

Last night after the Twins suffered a barely-watchable sweep by the Red Sox, they sent Jeff Manship back down to AAA (that was a lengthy stint, wasn't it?), and called up Trevor Plouffe for the first time. So just who is Trevor Plouffe?

Here's what Aaron Gleeman had to say about him during the offseason, when he ranked Plouffe as the Twins' 27th best prospect:

Trevor Plouffe had been promoted very aggressively since the Twins took him out of high school in the first round of the 2004 draft, but pushing him through the system despite the lack of any major offensive development now leaves him as a 24-year-old about to spend a third straight season at Rochester. He has six seasons under his belt, including 1,553 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A, yet has never posted even a .750 OPS at any level and owns a .256/.318/.385 career line.

His production has been remarkably consistent in its mediocrity, with zero real strides made in any key areas, and Plouffe's lack of progress at the plate is especially damaging because he's no sure thing to be an asset defensively at shortstop. His glove gets mixed reviews and while Plouffe played exclusively shortstop last year the Twins used him at third base extensively in 2008. If he's not at least an average defensive shortstop in the majors it's tough to see Plouffe having much value.

Plouffe is certainly still young enough for something to click offensively, but as the Twins saw with Luis Rivas and could be seeing with Delmon Young at some point actual production takes precedence over youth. He's about to enter his seventh professional season and fourth straight year in the high minors, but aside from his age and status as a former first-round pick Plouffe has shown almost no reason for optimism. My guess is that by this time next year he'll either be in the majors or off the 40-man roster.

Despite being a former first round pick, Plouffe pretty clearly wasn't on the verge of breaking down the door to the major league roster when the season started. However, we've seen this story before: first round draft pick, doesn't hit much all the way through the minors, then something clicks during a brief period at AAA and that success immediately translates to the majors. (I call it "The Denard Story," but that's just a working title.) Of course, we've also seen the "first round draft pick never makes anything of himself and washes out of the league eventually" story play out plenty of times. It's not clear which track Plouffe is on.

Then JJ Hardy got injured, and it only took a couple of days for my Twitter feed to start exploding with excitement for Trevor Plouffe and myriad people calling for him to be called up. I've tried to go back and grab some of those tweets, but Twitter isn't letting me look more than 5 days into the past. Stupid internet.

It's worth pointing out that Matt Tolbert's career minor league line is .277/.336/.400, considerably better than Plouffe's. Why are people getting so excited about a guy who hit even worse than Tolbert in the minors? Sure, this year he hit .303/.367/.493 at AAA, but that's only 38 games! Are we really getting excited about 38 games now?

Plouffe might have a future with the Twins, and he might not. Maybe Gleeman was right, and the Twins had decided that if Plouffe doesn't show something that this is his final year in the organization; if that's the case, it certainly makes sense that they'd see what he's got, especially while he's hot. He did, after all, get a hit off Strasburg.

He's played the lion's share of his time at SS, but has played at both 2B and 3B. If it starts looking like Plouffe's bat is real, maybe he'll replace Tolbert for the rest of this season, and maybe even Punto in 2011. I haven't heard great reports about his defense at short, so maybe he won't stick there; maybe he'll replace Hudson in 2011. Maybe he'll be gone.

Normally I'm excited to see the next product of the Twins' talent pipeline. And for years, Plouffe was supposed to be "the shortstop of the future!" But from where I'm sitting, his star is shining quite a bit less brightly than it once did, and I don't find myself all that thrilled. Maybe it's because even with Plouffe's callup, the roster still has Harris, Punto, Tolbert, and Casilla, who will presumably all get playing time ahead of Plouffe. So Trevor: I hope you like sitting on the bench for 3 games while the guy playing instead of you goes 0-4 every day until you get sent back down. Because I'm guessing that's Gardy's plan.

Then again, maybe this is just part of Plouffe's story. Span was "the center fielder of the future!" for years, while he sucked at every level of the minors, and by the time he got to the top of the farm system he looked like a washout and I was calling him "Denard F'ing Span," as if he had no chance to become a viable major leaguer. You never know.

So hopefully his .860 OPS isn't a fluke and he gets some playing time and the Twins can reap some more fruit from the pipeline. But I wouldn't get your hopes up.

The Twins' Secret Market Inefficiency

2010-05-20T00:00:00-07:00

The stats vs scouts "debate" continues to rage on, with the "stats" side of the argument pushing the radical notion that a good front office should combine both statistical analysis and scouting into its decision making process, while the "scouts" side chomps on sunflower seeds and chewing tobacco while screeching that anyone who believes in any stat besides batting average doesn't know anything about real baseball.

Was that fair? Who cares?

As we all know too well by now, the Twins were one of the last holdouts in the "scouts only" camp, and have recently hired "a guy" to "look at" some statistics. At the time, I wondered if they'd listen to that guy, or if they just hired him as a salary-wasting figurehead, whose only purpose is to have a title that the franchise can wave in the noses of people who call them ignorant to new methods of understanding the game. That's still an important question, and I doubt it'll be answered until several more moves are made and we can get some information as to who was behind the moves. I'd say 6-24 months.

But I don't want to wait! What do we know now?

Well, the whole point of hiring a team of statistical analysts is to gain a competitive advantage against other teams. The A's found an advantage in the market for high-OBP/low-average players, who would help a team win but were undervalued by the marketplace at the time -- everyone knows that they found that market inefficiency by paying very close attention to their statistical analysis, which was the class of the league at the time. Since then, the rest of the league has caught on and high-OBP guys are no longer undervalued by the market -- and look at what it's done to Oakland's ability to compete. They still have not found a new market inefficiency, and I'm sure it's not for lack of trying.

Other teams, notably the Mariners and Red Sox, have tried to exploit what they saw as a newly formed market inefficiency: great defensive players. They're relying heavily on advanced defensive metrics, but those metrics are not yet advanced enough to be truly reliable; you can probably see that in the win-loss records of those teams. Someday, perhaps, there will be a good way to measure defense objectively, but that day has not arrived yet.

Meanwhile, the Twins continue to compete, and many around the league have wondered why ... especially teams in similar markets who find themselves stuck at the bottom of the standings but for the occasional burst of fate which brings them some wins. But the thing about fate is that she's a bitch.* Those other teams want to know: what's the deal with the Twins?

* Or something. I don't know exactly how that saying goes.

In order to compete consistently without outspending your rivals, you basically must find a market inefficiency that you can exploit for as long as possible; the A's lost their advantage only once other teams started using the same methods to seek out the same players. And because it's basically impossible to keep things a secret nowadays -- you are currently reading an example of why it's impossible for things to stay secret, even if you don't tell anybody the recipe for your magic sauce, someone will probably come up with it, or something close -- you have to choose between getting so good at finding new inefficiencies that you can exploit a new one every time the old one closes, and getting so good at exploiting a particular inefficiency that nobody else can do it even if they know what it is.

So, the question is: have the Twins found a market efficiency, how are they exploiting it, and which method of protecting their advantage have they chosen? Jerry Crasnick recently wrote an article that may be able to shed some light for us. Here's a hint: strike-throwers.

It's not easy to project how an 18-year-old high school senior's control will look when he's 24, but Twins scouts focus on the traits that will give a prospect a head start. The pitcher who maintains the same arm slot, breaks his hands at the same place and drops his landing foot in the same spot after each throw has an edge over someone with an inconsistent delivery. Similarly, a pitcher with the self-assurance to pitch to contact and the demeanor to shrug off a bad-hop single or adjust to a tight strike zone is a better fit for the organizational approach. Makeup is just as important as mechanics or stuff.

"We emphasize it at the acquisition level," [longtime scouting directory Mike] Radcliff said. "It stems from a manifesto we put together way back in the day: As a small-market club, how are you going to get an edge? We believe that command and control and makeup are true separators in the pitching category.

"We put stock in it and believe that it matters. It's a part of our DNA now at every level -- from scouting through our player development to the big leagues."

The Twins believe in strike-throwing pitchers who boast a consistent delivery even at a young age, along with makeup, or the (mythical?) mental/emotional ability to rebound from failure and persevere through adversity.

At the same time, many other teams seem to value guys who can rack up big strikeout numbers, or guys who can light up radar guns, or maintain a low ERA, or generate ground balls, or who have electric raw stuff. What's the market value of a guy who doesn't strike many guys out, but also doesn't walk many batters, who pitches to contact and relies on his defense behind him? Not high. So the Twins seem to have found an inefficiency.

I think it's clear that those qualities can't come across in any statistic, nor even in radar gun readings or box scores ... perhaps not even on television. In order to find guys who meet this profile, you must use scouts. Lots of them, all over the country, watching high school games and college games and semi-pro games and amateur league games, and minor league games -- all of these widely divergent leagues and ballparks and playing environments, where stats mean less and less and the eye of an experienced scout means more.

The Twins, as an organization, are exploiting this market inefficiency by relying heavily on scouts, at the same time that most front offices are pushing hard in the opposite direction, towards more and more statistical analysis. That seems to leave plenty of room for the Twins to continue exploiting these undervalued pitchers for some time to come.

And what if another team wants to horn in on the Twins' turf? Will they turn into the A's, struggling along as they fail to find a new well after the old one dried up? How are they protecting their competitive advantage?

Well, it goes back to how difficult it is to scout all these players, in all these games, in all these leagues, all over the United States and even the world (the Twins are pioneers both in Australia and Europe). It's difficult and expensive to send scouts to all those games, and many franchises will be loathe to commit that kind of money without some guarantee of positive returns; my guess is that's why so many were so slow to adopt statistical analysis in the first place.

And then, even if you're spending the money to send scouts all over the world to see these games, who's to say they know what to look for, or will find the diamonds in the rough anyway? The Twins have kept the same scouting staff in place for decades, with low churn and, without a doubt, plenty of handing down the wisdom of the elders through oral tradition.

The Twins are finding guys that other teams aren't even looking for. They're looking for guys in places that other teams aren't looking. And if other teams were looking, the Twins have a substantial head start on accurately evaluating young players.

This, all at the same time that they're emerging from the economic depths of the small market teams, and signing checks with the big boys.

I wouldn't expect the Twins to suffer the same fate as the Athletics any time soon.

Successful weekend?

2010-05-17T00:00:00-07:00

Before this series, I said the Twins needed to win 2 out of 3 against the Yankees. They did not. The could have, if it weren't for some curious pitching moves on Friday evening. Let's not dwell on that though. I think we can consider this weekend a success. Why? Well, I'm sure you have read thousands of words on the subject in the last 24 hours, so I won't waste many more. The Twins won a game in Yankees stadium (new or old) in what seems like decades. They had success against the core of the vaunted Yankee bullpen. And finally they won the game with a hit in a bases loaded situation. Thats like at least 3 monkeys off of their backs.

Splitting the season series with the Yankees is acceptable. Losing 2 of 3 to a very good team in their stadium isn't the end of the world. Now we need the Yankees to return the favor when they come to Minneapolis next week.

So everyone take a deep breath, and say it with me: We beat the Yankees in the Bronx.

Now if only Gardy didn't use Guerrier.....

Another chapter in the Story of Span: Sabotage

2010-05-14T00:00:00-07:00

It's well known around these parts that I'm a pretty big fan of Denard Span; a big part of that, I think, is how interesting he is as a person and also as a case study of a baseball player's career.

He was a first-round draft pick, and the Twins immediately had hopes that he'd one day replace Torii Hunter in the franchise's lineage of fan-friendly star center fielders. In his first several years in the minors, however, Denard was a complete disappointment; he couldn't hit at all, leading to my use of the unflattering nickname "Denard F'ing Span" in place of his actual name. I've always wondered why he failed so miserably for so long, and then suddenly started drawing walks and driving the ball in the upper minors. I had theorized for a while that it had to do with his eye surgery, which happened around the same time. Maybe, though, that wasn't the entire story.

Rob Neyer quotes some words from Denard himself:

When I got drafted, anybody who scouted me will remember that I was a small-framed guy, but I had pretty good pop, so to speak. I wasn’t a slap hitter coming out of high school; I was a guy who could drive the ball into the gaps. I wasn’t a home-run hitter, but I was a guy who could drive the ball. When I got drafted, they took me with the idea of making me into a leadoff hitter and they wanted me to slap the ball. That had them changing my hitting approach to try to stay inside the ball and hit ground balls to the left side of the infield instead of turning on balls. I did that for two-and-half, three years, and it almost got to the point where I didn’t know how to turn on a ball. On an inside pitch, I’d try to fight it the other way.

Finally, I got to Double-A and a scout who had seen me in high school, and had been promoted to a position in our minor-league system, remembered seeing me as a 17-year-old kid. At that age, I was probably 25 pounds lighter than I was at 22. So, when he saw me at 22 he said, "I remember when you were 170 pounds and now you’re close to 200 pounds and you hit the ball farther, with more strength, as a 17-year-old. That doesn‘t make sense to me." After that, they had me, finally, working on turning on the ball and driving it. I almost felt like I ... I don’t want to say "wasted" three years, but I was working on something for three years that I don’t think I should have been.

So the Twins took a lean, strong 17 year old center fielder with a little bit of pop, and set out to systematically destroy his ability to hit the ball with any authority. They went with the standard organizational mold of the slap-hitting little guy who never draws a walk or gets an extra base hit. The .300/.300/.300 "perfect Twin" that the team seemed to value so highly during the down years ... and hasn't quite gotten over now that they actually have talented players.

That's pretty disappointing. And they never would have fixed it if the guy who'd scouted him hadn't been promoted to a position of power. How many other talented young players are the Twins destroying before they get to AA because they're teaching their own preferred style of hitting over either a) what's valuable to a team, or b) what each individual player would be best at. You remember David Ortiz, right? Well, the Twins wanted him to bunt and to slap the ball the other way, and he was frustrated. When he went to Boston, they apparently told him to "hit the ball as hard as you can,"* and he reacted brilliantly.

* There may or may not have been other changes that Ortiz made when he went to Boston.

John Shipley recently interviewed Bill Smith about Span, his play on the field, and his new contract. Was Smith even aware of this close call, the fact that Span's career was saved by an unknown front-office staffer, pulled back from the brink of Tolbert-ian offense and thrust forth into the star-caliber realm of 4 WAR players?

"We drafted him out of high school, and he already had a maturity and a work ethic. He came to us with a lot of it," Twins general manager Bill Smith said. "He was a quiet, serious guy when we took him. He progressed step by step through our system, and there were a lot of people — managers, coaches, trainers -- who were very happy when he became a good major league player."

That ... does not seem like Smith is aware of what happened. I always like it when GMs and managers and other "baseball people" talk about a player's "work ethic" as if it's more important than his talent; as if they'd rather have a guy who tries really hard than a guy who is awesome. You'd think they'd rather have Nick Punto and Matt Tolbert on the same 25-man roster than upgrade one of them to a player with more talent. He even mentions that Span "progressed step by step through our system," as if the Twins' "system" is designed to do anything more than produce no-discipline/no-power players. The gems like Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, and Kubel managed to sneak through the Twins' "system" by what seems to amount to nothing more than a series of accidents -- leaving me to wonder if any of them have a story like Span's to tell about their days in the minors.

Shipley points out that Gardenhire praised Span for seeming "more focused on driving the ball," as proven by a triple he hit to the gap last week. That seems like a bit of a small sample size, frankly, given that it's one plate appearance, but I hope that Span hasn't been loafing through the season so far -- and, perhaps more importantly, that Gardy doesn't think Span hasn't been focused. But what did Span have to say about his newfound focus?

"Every day, I'm trying to drive the ball. It doesn't work like that. One thing about being in the big leagues, you have access to a lot of video, and every day I come to the field, if something doesn't feel right, I try to go back to looking at some film of when I was feeling good, and I've been doing that."

So it takes a 26 year old player to throw some water on Gardy's face, pointing out that he's trying to drive the ball every time he swings,* and showing some understanding of how baseball works. I would have thought Gardy would understand this, given that he's "a baseball man," and has been around the game, and he batted .232/.277/.292 in his own playing career -- he failed more than anyone! Shouldn't he realize, by now, that baseball is a game of failure? Does he really need a young player like Span to understand this for him, on his own? Wouldn't it maybe be better if he could try to impart pieces of wisdom like this onto his young players, such that they might be able to convert some of their potential into actual success?

* Weird, right? I mean, I thought players were supposed to go up there and flail wildly 70% of the time, so they didn't risk batting above .300?

Of course, Gardy's a real sunflower-seed-spittin' baseball man. So instead of trying to mentor a guy like Alexi Casilla, emphasizing that failure is acceptable as long as you don't get discouraged and keep on going out there and getting better every day, he would rather throw Casilla under the bus whenever he accidentally sleeps too late and bench him for a week every time he either a) makes a mistake, or b) gets on base.

I suppose I shouldn't be surprised, then, that Gardy doesn't realize that Span is a good player who is always trying. Rather, when Span is doing well Gardy and Smith praise such vague attributes as his "focus" and "work ethic," and when he isn't doing well they pan those very same vague attributes; what do you think Gardy meant by "more focused" if not that Span hadn't been focused until he hit that triple?

The Twins are known for doing things the right way -- especially when it comes to the farm system. They have a constant pipeline of talent coming out of the minors, replenishing the major league club as needed. It's really the only way to stay competitive when you can't compete financially with the top teams.

But imagine how much better the team could be if they weren't actively trying to prevent their prospects from developing into good players.

The Yankee Stigma

2010-05-13T00:00:00-07:00

The Twins have a very big (for May) series with the Yankees coming up this weekend. We have not been treated too kindly by the big kid on the AL block, last year the Twins went 0-10 against the Bombers. Gardenhire has only beaten them something like six times in his career.

During the Gardy era, the twins are 2-9 against the Yankees in the postseason alone. The Yankees always field at least a competitive team, usually a great one. They have won 27 World Series for godssake, so we aren't exactly the only ones who can't beat them in the playoffs.

This probably isn't so much a stigma, as it is the Yankees are flat out better. However one would think that we should be able to luck into a victory now and then. Some will argue that this is Gardy's fault. That he somehow doesn't have his players convinced they can win. Now, since this site used to be called firegardy.com, we don't have a lot of nice things to say about Ol' Ron, but I will say this: Gardy will never allow his team to lose because they don't think they can win. He has MANY flaws, but letting his players think they have lost before the first pitch isn't one of them.

What do you all think? Do we seemingly lose to the Yankees every time we play them simply because they are the better team? I would say that explains 7 out of every 10 times we lose. Why do we lose the other three? Are we scared of the pinstripes? Despite what I may think of Gardy, does he not properly prepare our players to face the Yankees? This is a big weekend series, and we don't have to face CC, so I think we have to win 2. I know that is a tall order since it is infinity percent more wins than we had last year, but its a good goal to shoot for. We play them again at Target Field in less than 2 weeks. Is splitting a 6 game series considered a victory against these guys? Or should we treat them like we treat every other team in that it is only a victory if we actually win more games against them than we lose?

Happy Delmon Young Day

2010-05-12T00:00:00-07:00

Today, for some reason, is #DelmonYoungDay on Twitter and in the Twins blogosphere. Since I purport to be a member of said blogosphere,* I figured perhaps it's finally time to participate in one of these events. So if you've been reading a lot about Delmon Young today, well, hopefully we can get through this without boring you too badly. I'll try to keep it spicy.

* I say "purport" because we haven't gotten any real confirmation from the leader of the Twins blogosphere that we've been recognized as a real blog. I don't even know who the leader is, which just goes to show you where this blog stands. So until something on that front changes, we'll continue to publish this rabble-rousing rag with the rebelliousness that can only come from being unsanctioned. You're welcome.

So, anyway, we're all familiar with the story of Delmon Young. Second son of a strict military man, younger brother of Major League slugger Dmitri Young, #1 overall draft pick, prodigious power compared to Frank Robinson.

We also know that when he was drafted by the Tampa Bay (then-Devil) Rays, he didn't think much of their organization; he said he'd "do my six and bolt," referring to the six years of major league service time you need before you become a free agent. That was just one of several character-related incidents that caused the Rays to sour on Delmon, another being the time he threw a bat after a called third strike (at AAA) and hit the umpire.

Isn't it sort of funny that the Rays changed their fortunes -- which Delmon had correctly derided -- by, in large part, unloading Young and receiving a #2 starting pitcher and one of the league's top shortstops in return? When the Twins gave up that much, they knew he'd need to hit like an All Star for the trade to be even close to even.

And ... that hasn't happened.

In 2007, his final year with the (Devil) Rays, he produced 0.1 WAR and nearly won the Rookie of the Year award. He then came to the Twins and promptly put up -0.7 and -1.1 WAR, establishing himself as one of the worst regular players in the league. 2009 was especially tough for him, as his on-the-field woes were compounded by a mortally sick mother that he couldn't stop worrying about. Indeed, her death was undoubtedly the nadir of the worst year in Delmon's life. Oh, and he wasn't playing often either, having lost a lot of playing time to Carlos Gomez. Things were not looking good for Delmon Young, as his body was getting more Dmitri-like, he lumbered around in the outfield like he'd just shit in his pants, he couldn't tell whether the ball was down the middle or four feet outside, his bat was slowing, and he was quickly making a name for himself as a fourth outfielder who couldn't hit or field.

But then, in the 2009-2010 offseason, things finally started breaking Delmon's way.* The Twins traded Gomez for an infielder, committing to Young as their starting LF who would play nearly every day. He lost 30 pounds, greatly reducing the Dmitrification of his body; this has paid early dividends, as his speed on the bases is basically incomparable to 2009, his defense appears to have improved tremendously (to the naked eye, at least -- his UZR in 2010 is positive, but it's too early to trust any defensive numbers), his K/BB ratio has improved from 92/12 in 2009 to 10/8 so far in 2010, and things seem to be turning around offensively for him.

* I mean aside from the breaks he got earlier in life, like "having the talent to see and hit a 90 MPH pitch," and "having a father who had already raised a son to the majors and was doing everything in his power to do it again," etc. He'd had a bad few years.

So here we are, with Delmon. Plenty of people have given up on him; others remain hopeful that he can become a good player. Already, he's shaping up as a barometer of a fan's disposition: do you believe he can recapture his faded potential, or do you think it's too late and that the Twins should move on at the first opportunity?

Regardless of a fan's dreams, Delmon will probably need to establish himself soon; Span won't be in CF forever, and the Twins happen to have a slew of talented and promising young outfielders getting ready to burst upward through the farm system. If Delmon can't establish himself as a (very) productive player this year, it may well be time to start the countdown to when he leaves.

Still, I can't shake the terrible feeling that as soon as Delmon goes to another team, he'll figure out when and how to turn on a pitch and will suddenly morph into Manny Ramirez. Maybe that's why the Twins were more ready to trade Gomez than Young -- is it that they believe in him, or is it that they're afraid?

It's worth pointing out that he's still only 24 years old. His first few years have shown that he'll probably never be a Hall of Fame player, like you'd hope from a guy who debuted in the majors at age 20. But it's too early to stick a fork in him.

While my excitement for Delmon has certainly waned -- I had to quickly retire the "DelBat" nickname once he arrived and it turned out he couldn't hit -- I'm one of those fans that holds onto that last little bit of hope that Delmon can become a good player and will start putting a charge into the ball on a regular basis, solidifying the Twins' lineup.

Where do you stand on Delmon?

Wilson Ramos is the next big test for the Twins' front office

2010-05-04T00:00:00-07:00

Wilson Ramos is batting .778/.778/1.111.

I think this is basically what Indians fans and White Sox fans are talking about when they say they hate the Twins. I've been over it a few times, the frustration vented from these other fanbases when they see some key injuries to their own teams scuttle their hopes and dreams for the season ... meanwhile, they see key injuries to the Twins and it doesn't seem to have any effect.

When Joe Mauer was out last April, Jose Morales came up and posted a 1.000 OPS until Mauer could return; Mauer turned out to be even better than that once he came back, but the Twins didn't miss him much in April.

When Justin Morneau went down last September, Cuddyer just moved from RF to 1B and gave his best Morneau impression, smashing the ball all over the field.

When Joe Nathan went down some people pretended to be really worried about how the Twins could ever win a game again. Turns out the internet was pretty much right about closers, and Rauch has 7 saves as Nathan's stand-in.

Now Mauer has gone down again, and Wilson Ramos got the call and has 7 hits in his first 9 at bats. He's batting .778/.778/1.111, and the Twins have won easily in both of his games.

I imagine it's frustrating to watch your rival repeatedly lose its stars, but never miss them when they're gone. It's like when you're watching a game, and when the other team is batting the ball seems to keep landing right on the foul line and you find yourself cursing your television, asking the universe why your team isn't getting those breaks. Except in this case, the questions are more existential and even more futile.

So, is Ramos turning Mauer into a 21st-century Pipp? I seriously doubt it.

For one thing, Mauer's new contract brings a lot of certainty to the situation. The Twins have him, they have to pay him, they can't trade him, and he's consistently been one of the best players in the league for the past few years. He's like Wally Pipp, except if Pipp happened to be able to hit even better than Gehrig.

Secondly, the Twins have a lot of options regarding what to do with Ramos (whereas they really only have one option with Mauer: when he's healthy, he plays). They can make him an uber-backup; they can make him a C/DH platoon with Mauer; they can try to move him to another position; they can send him to AAA to waste his talents while he gets ever more frustrated and eventually is taken by someone in the Rule 5 draft; they can hang onto him while his value is high and then dump him for a pittance once his value craters as he ages or struggles; they can trade him this summer for a rental; they can trade him next winter for whatever's available.

A while back, the Twins never would have had these options. A little while less back, they would have chosen option four and just let him waste away in the minors until they'd completely thrown away one of their top prospects, then blamed the player for their own failure. But now? Now the Twins are a powerhouse economically, and one of their top prospects happens to be at a position where they have the reigning MVP signed for most of the decade.

For the first time in memory, the Twins are set to be buyers at the trade deadline and have perhaps the most attractive trading chip on the market. It doesn't take a huge stretch of the imagination to see a Cliff Lee deal (or something like it) coming the Twins' way this summer.

Normally, I'd be afraid of that. I don't like short-sighted moves that value the present way more than the future (which is precisely what trading 6 years of Ramos for 2 months of Lee would be). But now? Bill Smith is on a roll, and the early returns on his last several moves are excellent. So I'm left excited by the possibility that the Twins could make a giant splash with a Ramos trade some time within the next year.

I don't know what the Twins should do with Ramos. Maybe something will happen during the year that shows a weakness that needs to be bolstered, which would help answer the question.

For now, I'll enjoy watching Ramos play. And for later, I find myself getting dangerously close to trusting that Bill Smith will make a good move -- whatever the move happens to be. What to do with Ramos is the next big test for the Twins' front office.

Yeah, that game sucked. But get over it, because there's fun to be had!

2010-04-29T00:00:00-07:00

Boy, that was a rough one last night, huh? Baker blew a 6-1 lead, Neshek couldn't find the plate, Crain couldn't find anything but the thick parts of the Detroit bats, and once again the umpires made some ... confusing calls. I started following a bunch more Twins people on Twitter yesterday,* and there was plenty of anger directed at the Twins, and the decision-making in this game.

* Greatly increasing the frequency with which I have to check Twitter -- we'll see how long I can handle this pace.

Yeah, it was rough. But this is baseball, and there will be rough games from time to time. More often than any other sport, really. Believe me: I understand the anguish of the moment. But it's important to realize that it's a long season, and the important thing for the team is not to completely avoid these games, but to rebound from them quickly and stay on a good track.

Seth Stohs says it better than I can:

I feel that with more activity and more people in social media, that I have had to utter the phrase “it’s a marathon, not a sprint” a lot. It’s amazing to me that people somehow forget that there is a 162 game season, not a one game series or a best two out of three series. The big picture is the 162 game season.

Of course, Seth has been taking heat lately for being "too harsh" on other fans who think each baseball game should be a win-or-die event, and should be treated like a football team. I didn't pick up the harshness, but then ... I wouldn't, would I? Point is, he's right. The Twins aren't going to win every game. They're not going to win every series. They're not going to look good every night. The best players need days off -- every player needs days off. They've been playing with a short bench for most of the year so far, and maybe that's starting to show itself in Morneau's back, Mauer's foot, Span's attitude, Hardy's leg, Hudson's whatever-the-hell-is-wrong-with-that-guy, etc. Here's a bomb for you: maybe it'll be nice when Punto gets back.

Fun Time!

But all that was just a long preamble to what I really wanted to get to this morning: the most hated team in baseball!

I saw this article which links to another article in the Wall Street Journal, which attempted to measure sentiment about each team based on an algorithm which looks at what's being said on the internet.

You probably guessed that the Yankees were the most hated team, right? Well ... wrong! It was (drum roll please) the Cleveland Indians!

I suppose that makes sense. Indians fans have watched as the team dealt CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, and as Fausto Carmona collapsed faster than a black hole, and Grady Sizemore disappeared from the face of the Earth, and Travis Hafner got fat and forgot how to hit immediately after getting his ill-advised big contract, and prospects like Andy Marte keep getting chances and keep failing, and nobody even knows who else is on their team, and Jhonny Peralta who spells his name wrong, and they look across the division and see the Twins facing similar problems and suffering no ill effects.

Sure, that provokes some lashing out against the Twins, which we've laughed about here in the past. But all the crap they go through is enough to drive a fanbase crazy -- the Indians are supposed to have this great front office, and every year all the analysts look at their talent and say "holy shit, this team is stacked!" and then every year they get knocked around during the doldrums of summer and their late-season surge is a) not enough to make it to the top of the division, and b) too late anyway, because the fans have checked out.

Of course, the WSJ's algorithm (which they blame on Nielsen) seems questionable to me. The Indians don't have the sheer volume of fans that the Yankees do, and from what I've seen the Indians fans are less likely to blindly support their team and attack any detractor than Yankees fans are. It's just good old fashioned Midwestern honesty, that when the Indians are bad, the Indians fans will not talk favorably about them.

For their part, the WSJ was pretty confused about why the Yankees weren't atop the list.

The good news for the Yankees is that their low score is better than the only team that really matters: The rival Boston Red Sox, who are the second most-despised team.

I wonder if they realize that sentences like that are the whole reason people hate the Yankees in the first place. Guess what? The Red Sox don't maetter until they start winning.

Anyway, as the WSJ is wont to do, they didn't publish the entire list. All I know is that the Twins aren't in the 10 most-hated teams, and they aren't one of the two least-hated. I'd guess they're somewhere in the middle, with a healthy balance of Twins fans like Gleeman criticizing them, Twins fans like me riding the emotional waves of their decisions (and for the last several months being extremely excited and filled with praise), and fans from Chicago, Detroit, and Cleveland ripping the Twins for various imagined offenses. At least, they do that when they figure out how to use a computer.

So that was fun. Get over the loss, folks, we have a day game today!

Twins Bullpen Update

2010-04-28T00:00:00-07:00

After Joe Nathan went down in early March, everyone and their mother seemed to be worried about the Twins bullpen. All of a sudden the Twins went from a World Series contender to an AL Central also-ran because one guy got hurt. I didn't buy it. I didn't think the loss of Nathan would cost the Twins more than a few wins and jack up everyone's blood pressure. So, instead of talking about how awesome our fifth starter is, I thought I'd take this chance to update everyone on how each member of our "weak link" bullpen has been doing so far.

Pat Neshek

Neshek has pitched 4.1 innings (in 5 games), with a solid 8.31 K/9, a 0.00 ERA, and a 1.92 FIP. He hasn't allowed a homer yet, and his WAR is 0.1. He has an unsustainably low BABIP of .196. I expect that to rise, along with his ERA, but I think his strikeout and walk rates at levels he can maintain. He hasn't seen much action, so I'd like Gardy to run him out a little more often. Overall, I'm pressed with Neshek's first few Major League outings in roughly two years.

Ron Mahay

Mahay was a late addition to the pen and was brought in to take the spot of the injured Clay Condrey. Mayhay has pitched in 5 games, tossing 5.1 innings. He has a really high K/9 of 11.12, and his BABIP is a a little low at .250. He has a good GB% of 50%. Expect his ERA and FIP to increase from their insanely low leves, and I bet he gets most of the LOOGY duties is Mijares remains injured/bad and Duensing is forced into the rotation. So far Mahay has faced nearly identical numbers of lefties and righties, looking pretty similar facing both.

Matt Guerrier

The longtime workhorse of the Twins bullpen, seems to be in that role again this year. He appeared in 10 games so far this season, throwing 11.1 innings. Like the rest of the Twins relievers he has a low BABIP, and has managed to stay away from the longball. His strikeout rates are pretty low, but he has never really been a big time strikeout machine. Groundball rate of 41% is solid, if not spectacular.

Jon Rauch

Rauch was probably the biggest question mark going into this season. He had pretty big shoes to fill, and has done so prett admirably. He has converted 7/8 saves opportunities, pitching a total of 10 innings. He got the win after blowing his only saves. His .321 BABIP is pretty high, so that might regress a little bit over the course of the season, and his GB% of 45% is pretty good. Compared to Nathan, his k/9 is pretty piss poor. It currently sits at 6.30, relief pitchers, especially closers, need to strike hitters out at a better rate than that.

Brian Duensing

Duensing made the team and was expected to pitching in a long relief role for most of the season. There haven't been too many opportunities for him to pitch multiple innings, he has appeared in 8 games, pitching 9 innings. He is 2-0, with an average BABIP, and a high GB% (59.3). His K/9 is in line with his career average, and his BB/9 is very low (1.00). His ERA and FIP are pretty close (2.00 vs 2.63) so that is encouraging. What we see is what we get from Duensing. He isn't a spectacular pitcher, but he is a very capable lefty reliever. Of the 8 hits he has given up, only one was against a lefty. If Blackburn continues to be hurt or struggles I think Duensing is the logical choice to move into the rotation for a while.

Alex Burnett

Called up to replace injured, terrible lefty Jose Mijares, Burnett has looked pretty good. He has appeared in 5 games, striking out a ton of guys over his 7.1 innings. GB% is a little low at 35.3%. I imagine he is the first on the chopping block when Mijares comes back, although he has looked better than Mijares and I'm not sure we need 3 lefties in the bullpen.

Jesse Crain

One of my least favorite pitchers over the years, Crain is kind of an annoying relief pitcher. He looks good when he comes in with the bases empty, but can't seem to take care of business if there are runners on. That isn't exactly a great quality in a middle reliever/setup man. Crain's K/9 is in line with his career average so far, his BABIP sits at .323, so I expect that to come down. His GB% (29.2%) is quite a bit below his career average (46.5%). I don't see him going anywhere, and I expect him to be an average pitcher most of the year. He will look pretty good when nobody is on base, and he will struggle if he is asked to get out of other people's jams.

Jose Mijares

Screw him. He sucks.

The one thing that stands out to me is the lack of homers the bullpen has given up. Crain has one, Mijares three, and nobody else has given one up. That is very impressive.

Fisking the closer role

2010-04-22T00:00:00-07:00

Want to have some fun? Ed Price over at Fanhouse just "penned"* an article about the Twins' bullpen situation, defending Gardenhire for selecting Rauch as the closer instead of going with a closer-by-committee situation. It's not clear if Price actually thinks Rauch was the best option; instead, his article is about how Joe Sheehan doesn't know shit about baseball because he never wore a jock. I love these.

* Should it really be "penned" these days? Maybe it should be "keyboarded" or something? I mean, when was the last time you saw someone write more than a couple sentences with an actual pen?

In an article in the April 19 issue of Sports Illustrated, Joe Sheehan criticizes the Twins and manager Ron Gardenhire for naming Jon Rauch the team's closer after the season-ending injury to Joe Nathan.

I suppose that since Price apparently reads Sports Illustrated on paper -- implied by the fact that he knows the date of the issue -- I think he may have actually written this article with a pen. Which should say a lot about the direction he'll go with his article.

Sheehan writes that Gardenhire decided to go with a single closer "because a statistic -- the save -- is driving the process."

Okay, so we know Price uses a pen to write, which means he's an old guy who hates stats. But it's not just stats he hates, but rather your stats. Get ready for a defense of the "save" as a statistic, and of managers who work to maximize the number of saves an individual player gets. After all, it's tradition, and those never change. When was there ever a time when baseball managers didn't save their best pitcher for the last inning? Baseball must have really sucked back then, if it ever happened.

Which shows that Sheehan doesn't understand Gardenhire, or baseball players, or the game.

Yup. Classic opening salvo.

Sheehan, who has also written for Baseball Prospectus, knows how to analyze baseball statistics. But the game isn't played by computer printouts, it's played by players.

Well, we've reached the crux of the argument, I think. Sheehan just doesn't understand that baseball is real. All this time he was mistaken, thinking that the thing to which he'd dedicated his life was just a meaningless simulation, like in that Star Trek episode.

No, I don't remember which Star Trek episode. Weren't they all pretty much like that?

Writes Sheehan:

No matter how strong Rauch has looked so far, Minnesota's depth and breadth of skills cry out for a bullpen built around something more substantial than the save rule.

To recap: Sheehan says Gardenhire should utilize his bullpen in a way that maximizes the talent of the players he has.

But Gardenhire isn't building his bullpen around the save rule. He's building it around his players.

To recap: Price says Gardenhire is utilizing his bullpen in a way that maximizes the talent of the players he has.

What Sheehan doesn't understand is that managers manage people. And a manager's No. 1 task is to put his players in the proper situations -- in games and in their frames of mind -- to succeed.

And Price knows the secret of baseball: that there's one and only one way to manage people. Anything a manager does that's different from what Tony LaRussa does is stupid and wrong. That's why John McGraw was such a fucking dipshit of a manager: he didn't know the secret, magical way to manage people.

Statistics represent what the players have done; the players do not simply perform to predetermined statistics, like Strat-o-matic cards.

Let me try to explain this, so we can all understand where Price is coming from.

Good baseball players get a hit 30% of the time or so. Great pitchers get outs via a strikeout about 30% of the time. There are other such "numbers," many of them, which you can use to measure what the players have done. People used to invent these numbers: once upon a time, batting average was invented, and it was good. Decades later, the "save" itself was invented, and that was good too.

Then everyone pretty much realized that the state of baseball knowledge had reached its Platonic ideal, and that any attempt, by anyone, ever, to come up with a new or different way of understanding the game is a fucking asshole who wants to rape your children and burn effigies of your favorite childhood ballplayers. I'm pretty sure these are indisputable facts of history.

So what Price is trying to say is that Sheehan thinks baseball is not real, that it's no different from Strat-O-Matic, which is a board game that simulates real baseball by playing with cards and dice and such. So you can pretend to be the manager by making decisions like "the next hitter is a lefty who mashes right handed pitchers, and my pitcher is right handed ... should I bring in a lefty to face this guy?" You know, stuff that real baseball managers never have to think about.

Because ...

And players are people.

That's right. Because players are people. And that means Dennys Reyes is just as good at retiring Albert Pujols as he is at retiring Ryan Howard.

More than 10 years ago, when I was covering the Arizona Diamondbacks, I asked closer Gregg Olson about a theory I had. What if a team designated an "ace reliever" instead of a closer, and used him when the situation was most crucial -- maybe in the ninth, as a closer would, but maybe with men on in the eighth, or with the heart of the order up in the seventh?

That's quite an interesting theory you had. You must feel pretty good about yourself, because that's pretty much the same theory that all the smartest baseball minds I know of came up with. But if you're going to appeal to some authority on the subject of bullpen management, maybe you should talk to a smart baseball mind, like Bill James or Joe Posnanski, or Rob Neyer or Joe Sheehan. No, on second thought, it's better to ask Gregg Olson. After all, those eggheads never got paid to scratch themselves in a filthy dugout, so what the fuck do they know?

Gregg Olson, on the other hand, racked up 217 saves over his 14 year career. I think that proves a) that he's thought deeply about the best way to manage a bullpen, b) that he's a pretty bright guy in geneneral, and c) that he's bound to be pretty open-minded about shaking up the status quo that earned him $12.75M because he had reasonably good save totals.

Olson told me it wouldn't work because relievers want to know their roles. Because of the way bullpens have evolved, players expect to be a closer, or the eighth-inning pitcher, or the seventh-inning pitcher, or the long man, or the lefty specialist.

Surprisingly, despite the conflict of interest, Olson sided with the status quo that makes closers disproportionately more money than their equally good setup-man counterparts. Talking to unbiased sources and paraphrasing them in such a way that they precisely back up the argument that you were trying to make from the beginning ... this is what you learn in Journalism School. You'd know that if you could find the way out of your mom's basement, blogging nerd.

Baseball people say that relievers want to know it's their turn even before the phone rings. If they are handed a certain role, they know how and when to prepare to pitch.

Because your warmup pitches don't work if you're told to warm up, and you didn't already know you were going to have to warm up.

(And no matter what the numbers say, there is something different about the last three outs that some guys can handle and some can't.)

And no matter what your gut says, outs in the 7th inning can be higher leverage than the outs in the 9th inning. I mean, I just felt like I should point that out, since we're just saying things that you're not allowed to disagree with, as if it proves some sort of point.

Now perhaps relievers' expectations have been created by Tony La Russa and his followers using pitchers in accordance with the save rule. But it's how relievers have been used for decades, and players are used to it.

Sure, things changed before, and we think they changed for the better. Therefore, future changes cannot also be for the better.

So by picking a closer, Gardenhire wasn't managing to the save rule. He was managing his players, setting up his reliever usage so the pitchers knew what they would be asked to do and could prepare for it.

If we're assigning motive to Gardy, to whom you did not speak and did not quote, then why don't we bother wondering why he selected the guy with the most career saves? I mean, it seems like maybe he might have been thinking about the number of saves.

Perhaps the most annoying thing about the column: It was titled "Inside Baseball."

Are you sure? Because I clicked on it, and it said the title was "Closing Ranks," which is much cleverer and more title-ish.

It was written by someone who doesn't talk to baseball people and is anything but "inside" the game.

And ... the one "baseball person" you talked to for this article was a decent-but-not-great closer who retired 9 years ago, you talked to him "over ten years ago," and you didn't even directly quote him. So, you know, that's a pretty high horse you're on right now.

Does anybody still want Liriano in the bullpen?

2010-04-22T00:00:00-07:00

I haven't been writing much since the beginning of the season -- and I think the reason might be that the season is unfolding exactly as I thought/hoped it would. Liriano is re-emerging as an ace cast from the same mold we saw in 2006, the offense is relentless and dangerous from top to bottom, the pitching staff is more than accurate; the Twins are bludgeoning teams left and right. In fact, given that they've now won five consecutive series to start the year -- something they've never done before -- I'm going to have to say that the season has started off even better than I had thought it would.

I could say something now about the lack of "clutch hitting" -- the fact that they keep loading the bases and failing to drive in the runs. But that's not for today.

Today, I want to talk about Liriano. In 3 starts, he has a 1.29 ERA, 1.095 WHIP, and 17 strikeouts. His two outings at Target Field have been even more dominant: 0 runs in 15 innings, with tons of strikeouts and ground balls. This is exactly what he did during 2006, when he was essentially the perfect pitcher.

Liriano was my preseason pick for the Cy Young, and it feels good that he's started the season so dominant -- it's nice that the ridicule for such an audacious pick will be postponed until later in the season, when it's not quite so fresh in your minds.

It's already getting tough to remember, but during Spring Training there was a push for Liriano to be moved to the bullpen, to replace Nathan as the closer. Reusse points out how well it's worked out that Liriano refused. At the time I thought the move would have been unwise, given how much potential value Liriano still has as a starter -- I figured that they needed to give Liriano a shot in the rotation to see if it could work, and if he continued to dominate for three innings before falling apart then, yes, you move him to the bullpen. It was what I thought was necessary last summer.

In Wednesday's game, Liriano found some trouble in the 5th and the Indians loaded the bases with one out. Last year, that would have been the disaster inning, the one that turned the game into a rout and put a heavy burden on the bullpen. Not this time. Rick Anderson:

"Frankie started rushing a little that inning, and Joe [Mauer] went out and said, 'We're going to throw fastballs,' and he threw that sinker [to Asdrubal Cabrera] and got the double play. That was great to see. That was pitching."

Normally when you hear about the difference between a "thrower" and a "pitcher," the main difference is that the "thrower" goes in with an attitude like "we're going to throw fastballs." But really, I'm beginning to think the definition might just be ex post facto, in that he's a "pitcher" if what he did worked, and a "thrower" if it didn't, regardless of his approach.

If anyone still thinks the Twins would be better served with Liriano in the bullpen, I'd like to hear why.

Bonus Nonsense!

And I know I've harped on this in the past, but since I'm the only person who's on the "high contact pitchers can effect the quality of the defense behind them" bandwagon, I guess I'll just have to keep on harping.

"I tell you what, the last two days I feel like I haven't even moved in the outfield," Span said. "I've gotten lazy out there. I'll take that any day of the week. It starts with our pitching; we'll go as far as they go."

According to Span, all these strikeouts and groundouts are having a negative effect on his ability to keep his head in the game; of course, I'd never suggest that a pitcher should try to decrease his strikeouts or increase his number of fly balls, it's at least worth paying attention to. As the pitching staff pitches better, the plays the defense makes behind them may get worse.

And it won't matter as long as the starters remain dominant and the offense remains a relentless run-scoring machine.

Twins bounce back to beat Tribe

2010-04-21T00:00:00-07:00

On a night where the offense wasn't clicking, despite making Justin Masterson work, Slowey held the Indians in check and the Twins took advantage of several Cleveland miscues.

I was really impressed with the way Slowey pitches tonight. He was hitting all his spots, had an outstanding strike to ball ratio, and didn't walk a single batter. He seemed to be hitting all of his spots, and his only mistake was a bad pitch to Hafner. We couldn't really ask for a better start out of him. Ideally Liriano was taking notes, so he now has a good idea how to attack this Cleveland lineup on Wednesday night. I'm happy Gardy didn't send Slowey back out for the ninth just to get him a complete game. His pitch count probably could have handled it (he was at 98 after 8), but with the heart of the Indians order coming up, why risk it? Duensing wasn't messing around either. He came in for the ninth and just fired in strikes to the 3-4-5 hitters for Cleveland. He threw 11 pitches, 9 for strikes. The team totals were 109 pitches, 79 for strikes. 72%! That is insane. Hopefully Slowey (and the rest of the staff) can build off this.

On the offensive side of things, the picture isn't as rosy. The offense loaded the bases several times, again, and failed to do much of anything. We did manage to score three times on one such occassion, without a hit. I shudder to think what our team batting average with the bases loaded is. The sample size isn't really small either, we've had the bases juiced a lot.

Mauer failed to reach base for the first time since last September. A grand total of 35ish games. Pretty impressive.

Not a bad win, I really like that the Twins longest losing streak of the season is one game. If we can avoid losing back to back games for the rest of the year, that would be great. What? You say that is impossible? Well, nobody asked you.

Tonight is Liriano vs. David Huff. It is also apparently Xcel energy light bulb night. Why don't they just make it nickle beer night while they're at it. #StupidPromotions

Target Field Pictures

2010-04-13T00:00:00-07:00

Here are some sweet pictures I took at the game yesterday

[caption id="attachment_1120" align="aligncenter" width="478" caption="Starting Lineups"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1130" align="aligncenter" width="478" caption="Just some dude"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1132" align="aligncenter" width="553" caption="Worthless Canadians"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1133" align="aligncenter" width="468" caption="Cuddy"][/caption]

Observations from Target Field

2010-04-13T00:00:00-07:00

I have a ton of pictures from the game yesterday and will give them their own post sometime tonight. Here are some thoughts on the new park

It is awesome. Everything you have read/heard is true. Sightlines are great.
I saw Frank Viola and Jack Morris wandering around.
I rode in an elevator with Larry Fitzgerald, he is a large man.
The Target mascot, bullseye, was sitting in a nearby section. He literally had the best seat in the park.

I didn't get a chance to do much wandering. This was on purpose because I figure everyone else will be doing the same, and I know I will be back soon. I'll wait for everyone else to get it out of their system, before I take time to wander aimlessly.

Lost (to some) in the chaos of the "opener", was that the Twins won and looked damn good doing so. I was excited to have Pavano start because I didn't think he would be affected by the hoopla surrounding the game. He didn't "grow up" as a Twin, so this probably wasn't as big a deal to him as it would have been to Baker or Slowey. The offense continues to click, and Jon Rauch looks good enough as the closer. All these things can be qualified with "for now"

I'll post again with some pictures. I took about 70 and was too tired last night to sift through them all, and pick the ones I wanted to upload. So stay tuned for that, and leave your thoughts on Target Field or the game in general in the comments.

Baseball is a funny game

2010-04-09T00:00:00-07:00

Baseball is a funny game. Before yesterday's game, I'd written an article about Delmon Young; the premise was that he'd been given the starting job in LF, and it was his even if he had a bad night at the plate. He'd said that it felt good to know that even if he went 0-4, he'd be in the lineup the next night; that helps you relax, and perform better. It's the same thing Cuddyer said during his breakout season in 2006, when he was given RF. I'd written about the fact that as soon as Delmon suffered his first 0-4, Gardy was quick to bench him, and that I didn't like it; I hoped that Gardy had explained to Delmon that it wasn't a benching as much as just trying to get Thome more plate appearances and getting Delmon some rest. Even in the article, I worried that I was overreacting.

Thankfully, I didn't post the article. Because when they actually played the game, everything worked out perfectly, as if it were exactly what Gardy had had in mind when he sat Delmon out.

The Twins offense looked pretty impotent until the 5th inning, when a Thome double and a Kubel single started a rally (which ended with a Harris homer). Later, Thome blasted a 3-run homer to widen the margin to 6-1 and effectively put the game away. Delmon came in as a defensive replacement* and then, get this, in his only plate appearance he hit a 3-run homer of his own.

* I wonder how many times this year Delmon will come in as a defensive replacement. Isn't it odd that the Twins apparently plan to use 2009's worst defensive outfielder as a regular late-inning defensive sub? On one hand, if your defensive replacements come in and jack home runs in the ninth inning, you're doing something right. On the other, it seems to mean you're a little short on talented defenders. I think it's worth paying attention to this year.

So, in the end, I'm glad I didn't post that article before the game started. I'd have looked quite the fool.

And the Twins won 10-1, bludgeoning the Angels into submission with three more home runs. The offense is performing tremendously, despite the fact that they're getting essentially zero production from the top two spots in the lineup. Twins fans have been able to say that before, of course, but this time there's a big, big difference: we can reasonably expect that Span and Hudson will start hitting better at some point. Probably soon. And that makes it more likely that the team will continue its torrid run-scoring pace even if this crazy home run pace slows down. (And if it doesn't slow down, oh boy, the Twins are going to score a lot of runs.)

The Twins are 3-1 now, and have won a series in Anaheim for the first time in what seems like ages. The starting pitching has been a pleasant surprise, the offense has lived up to expectations, and the bullpen has shown some resilience to losing Nathan.

But all those things are meaningless, because there's another game starting tonight, and what they've done so far has no effect on what they'll do next. Baseball is a funny game that way.

Introducing Pat Neshek's new nickname: The Local

2010-04-08T00:00:00-07:00

Everyone probably knows I'm a big fan of Pat Neshek. He's a Minnesota product with a funky delivery who strikes a lot of guys out and is remarkably accessible to the fans via both his blog and his Twitter account. What's not to like?

His delivery has been debated back and forth here on the wild ol' internet; is he only getting strikeouts because of his weird motion? Will hitters adjust to that and start hitting him once it's no longer novel? Will it cause an injury, since it's so unorthodox?

I've always argued that he's effective because of his stuff, not because of his unusual delivery; if he had a perfectly normal delivery, it wouldn't suddenly become easy to hit a 91 MPH fastball with wicked late movement. Or to adjust to its accompanying nasty frisbee slider.

Despite Neshek's recent Tommy John surgery that cost him almost two full seasons, I think the injury concerns are overblown. Pitchers get hurt all the time whether their deliveries are orthodox or not; I don't see why his "unique" motion should make a difference.

But you know what Neshek is missing? A good nickname. And thanks to an idea I picked up from Thrylos98, I think I've got one.

Watch this video of Neshek's delivery:

Then watch this video of some old-timer:

For those of you who aren't 90+ years old, that was Walter Johnson, a legendary pitcher and long-time member of the Senators/Twins franchise.

So Neshek's delivery is remarkably similar to Johnson's; Neshek is from the Twin Cities.

Johnson was a starter, a horse who could pitch a ton of innings; Neshek is a short reliever, who throws a single inning at a time.

Walter Johnson was The Big Train.

I propose that Pat Neshek is The Local.

Twins 5 Angels 3

2010-04-07T00:00:00-07:00

I was a bit nervous going into this game, as starting the season off 0-2, while not the end of the world, would have caused a lot of complaints to be heard.

Joe Mauer started things off with a bang, blasting a two run homer for his first of the season. The Twins offense looked locked in, hitting the ball all over the place against lefty Joe Saunders. Unfortunately they were unable to really slam the door, scoring just 3 in the first.

The Twins tacked on single runs in the third and fourth, on homers by Morneau and JJ Hardy to take a 5-1 lead. Despite Torii Hunter's best efforts, the Angels were unable to break through and Minnesota held on for a 5-3 win.

Nick Blackburn was his usual self. 6 2/3 giving up 3 earned runs. His walk total was uncharacteristically high, but I'm willing to chalk that up to nerves. Or the fact that he was intimidated by all the people in the crowd wearing snuggies.

The bullpen, a big question mark going into the season, was literally perfect in relief of Blackburn. As Gleeman pointed out on Twitter (@aarongleeman): "See, now if there was such thing as a 'save' the Twins would probably leave Guerrier in for the ninth". I couldn't agree more. Guerrier got out of the 8th throwing just 11 pitches (7 for strikes) and looked like he easily could have mowed down the Angels in the ninth. But, Gardy has to have his "closer" rack up "saves". Oh well, it seemed to work out as Rauch struck out two in a perfect ninth.

When was the last time the Twins score all of their multiple runs on homers? I'm sure it has actually happened fairly recently, but it still surprises me.

What did everyone else think of the Twins first win in 2010?

First Game

2010-04-03T00:00:00-07:00

My dad called me this morning asking if I wanted to go to the Twins game today. I was lukewarm because I didn't want my first game at Target Field to be a spring training game. He then told me that one of his friends is friends with Tony LaRussa so we could go on the field. I couldn't pass that up. I met LaRussa and Mark McGwire. McGwire came up to us and said "Hi, I'm Mark. Nice to meet you". Very friendly. Here are some pictures I took. Enjoy

[caption id="attachment_1104" align="aligncenter" width="300" caption="View from the field"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1105" align="aligncenter" width="300" caption="The glove says Rick Ankiel, guess he forgot it when he moved to KC"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1106" align="aligncenter" width="300" caption="Span taking BP before the game"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1107" align="aligncenter" width="225" caption="Twins Win!"][/caption]

Punto named starting 3B

2010-04-01T00:00:00-07:00

I won't know what has been the less shocking announcement of the week: Ricky Martin coming out of the closet, or Punto being named starting third baseman. Since the day Hudson was signed and locked up the second base job, leaving only third base open, I knew Punto would be starting there. Gardy can't have a starting lineup without Punto in it. I think we all need to accept that, and realize that the rest of the lineup is so good, we can afford to have one black hole. Last year we had several black holes and won the division!

Harris played really well this spring, so it is a shame that he has to lose the starting job. Although, can we consider it a loss if the outcome was decided before the game started? Probably not.

As of April 1 the lineup that will take the field next monday in LA will probably look like this:

Span- CF
Hudson- 2B
Mauer- C
Morneau- 1B
Cuddyer- RF
Kubel- DH
Young- LF
Hardy- SS
Punto- 3B

Pitching: Scott Baker

I don't think Gardy has announced if he will bat Young seventh and Hardy eight or vice versa, but the above is pretty damn close.

Will anyone be at Target Field on the 12th? I for one can't wait.

Ramos, Perkins to Rochester; Neshek to come north

2010-03-31T00:00:00-07:00

The Twins announcedtoday that pitcher Gelnn Perkins, and catcher Wilson Ramos will start the season at AAA. I don't think anyone is surprised by the Perkins news, he has a bad attitude and an arm to match. The hotter topic is Wilson Ramos. My twitter feed blew up yesterday with various people arguing for and against using Ramos as Mauer's backup for a month. I am personally in the camp that believes Ramos needs to play everyday, and he will not do that with the Twins. Yes, Drew Butera does suck immensely, but it is the right move for a few weeks, a month at most. Some are assuming that Ramos will be a huge asset as a right handed pinch hitter late in close games. Can we really assume a player with exactly zero major league at bats can come in and hit off of elite, late inning AL relievers? I don't think we can. Thome crushes righties, and Harris hits lefites well enough to give us a suitable stable of pinch hitters for Gardy to pull from.

Starting Ramos' arbitration clock is only one of the reasons (and a secondary one at that) he should start the season in Rochester. If he comes up and struggles, who knows what that will do to his confidence. He has had zero plate appearances above AA, so why rush him? If anyone argues that "Mauer only had limited at bats in AA before making the majors!", I will punch you through the computer. Mauer was brought up to be the starter, not a backup. Plus, Ramos isn't the prospect Mauer was. What does everyone think of this hotly contested roster move? Gardy said it was a tough decision, and I'm sure it was. It was the right one, though.

In other news, Pat Neshek has claimed a bullpen spot. That is good news as he has looked good this spring. I don't think there is much argument here, so I won't waste anymore time on it.

More Fantasy Baseball

2010-03-30T00:00:00-07:00

I had another fantasy baseball draft this evening. It is a keeper league in its fourth year, and this year my keepers were: Mauer, Tulowitzki, Longoria, Ellsbury, and Halladay. I think that is a solid core, I get third, short, and catcher covered, which are pretty shallow. For our categories we use R, RBI, HR, SB, OBP, SLG, W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K, QS. I got steals covered with Ellsbury, Mauer does well in all of those categories (except SB), and Longoria & Tulo aren't too shabby either. So, since I finished 3rd last year I had the third to last pick in the first round (6th round after keepers).

Kendry Morales, 1B LAA (70th)
Aaron Hill, 2B TOR (75th)
Jonathan Papelbon, RP BOS (94th)
Manny Ramierz, OF LAD (99th)
AJ Burnett, SP NYY (118th)
Kevin Slowey, SP MIN (123rd)
Jason Kubel, OF MIN (142nd)
Yunel Escobar, SS ATL (147th)
Nolan Reimold, OF BAL (166th)
Wade Davis, SP TB (171st)
David Aardsma, RP SEA (190th)
Dexter Fowler, OF COL (195th)
Scott Feldman, SP TEX (214th)

I really like my offense. Good balance of power, and OBP. I could use a little more speed, so I can always insert Fowler into my lineup if someone doesn't perform/gets hurt. I picked up Escobar because he is a solid SS who I can always trade if someone else loses their SS, or I can use him if Tulo gets hurt. I'm kind of surprised that Kubel, who was top 10 in AL OPS last year, fell to me that late. I'm excited about Wade Davis, well the front office of the Rays is excited about him but that means I should be too. Right? Scott Feldman was a 17 game winner last year, so taking him with the last pick isn't a terrible idea. Even if he regresses a little he should still be solid. If anyone made it to the end of this post, please let me know what you think of my team.

Closer by Committee and Roster News

2010-03-28T00:00:00-07:00

According to Ken Rosenthal's twitter feed, the Twins are going to use a "closer by committee" to start the season. I think what this really means is they will use the start of the season as kind of an open audition. If someone stands out they will close for the rest of the season, if not Bill Smith will have to make a trade. I think the best news to come out of this is that they won't be using Liriano. That issue was addressed the other day on this site, so I won't get into it.

In other news, Jacque Jones and Matt Tolbert were told they will not start the season on the 25 man roster. I don't think this comes as a surprise to anyone. While he had a good spring, Jones was considered a long shot to make the team out of spring training. The stars would have had to align perfectly for Tolbert to make the team. Since Casilla is out of options, there was little doubt that the reserve infielder spot was going to Alexi. I'm kind of worried that the Twins won't have a real backup centerfielder, that defense could get pretty ugly if it consists of Young, Kubel, and Cuddyer. And am I the only one who doesn't like the idea of NIck Punto playing centerfield on some days?

What do you guys think of this "closer by committee"? What do you think of Tolbert and Jones starting the season in Rochester?

More Liriano-should-be-the-closer nonsense

2010-03-26T00:00:00-07:00

Joe Christensen continues to pound the "Liriano to the bullpen!" drum for some reason, and Gardy's not having it. At the moment.

"Frankie's a rotation guy; not going to be a bullpener," manager Ron Gardenhire said. "I'm going to tell you that, right now. Then, in another week, I'll tell you if he's still a rotation guy."

The Twins are taking this strategy because they're exploring trades to replace closer Joe Nathan. They don't want to ask Liriano to be their closer one day, only to make a trade, which would leave them scrambling to turn Liriano back into a starter.

I hope the reason the Twins are reluctant to move Liriano to the closer role isn't just because they're afraid of telling him one thing, then doing something behind his back that turns what they'd previously said into a lie -- especially since they don't need to do either. I hope it's more along the lines of "Liriano is leading the majors in strikeouts in Spring Training, and he's not walking anybody, maybe, just maybe, a guy with a 22/2 K/BB ratio is good enough to be the 5th starter on a team without a #1 starter, or a #2 starter, or a #3 starter." I hope this story keeps coming up because people just need to find something to write about that isn't "Holy shit, the Twins are going to win 95 games and cruise to the AL Central title by at least 10 wins," because while that's probably what's going to happen, "predicting" it will get you called a fool and being right won't happen for eight months and nobody will remember or care that you were right. If anything they'll just remember that they thought you were a fool at the time. So ... invent some controversy!

But this isn't even reasonable, right? If you didn't know anything about Liriano -- you didn't know about his amazing 2006, or his injury, or his struggle to recover from surgery -- and all you saw was a guy with 22 strikeouts and 2 walks in 14 innings in Spring Training, what would you think? Would you think: "Oh yeah, get him the hell out of the rotation, starters shouldn't be allowed to pitch that well." Fuck no you wouldn't think that.

Rob Neyer takes a look at it this afternoon, in his ongoing series of looking into the 5th starter plans* of all the major league teams.

* This amuses me greatly, because Neyer is on the forefront this spring of making the point that the "5th starter" designation is largely pointless, because nobody ever has 5 starters who make 30 starts, or 24 starts, or 20 starts. The "5th starter" just an interchangeable guy, and might be better served as a platoon of long relievers and prospects anyway. You may or may not agree with that, but the point is that the guy who most strongly agrees with it is also the one paying the most attention to who gets selected as the 5th starters around the league, and writing about it. Just saying.

And Neyer's take made me feel a little better, because he's as confused as I am.

Maybe it's just me, but when I see a starter with two walks and 22 strikeouts, I'm reminded of why his best role is as a starter.

I'm a little perplexed by this supposed plan. Instead of going with one of their many adequate relievers to finish the close games, they're trying to trade for some other team's adequate reliever. If they don't add another adequate reliever, they're going to ask their most dominant starting pitcher to become a reliever?

It doesn't seem to make sense, does it. And of course, Neyer's using the word "dominating" in the sense of performance-based metrics, which for pitchers means "strikeouts and walks," and Liriano has the best numbers out of anybody. Not just on the Twins, but anybody. Eleven strikeouts per walk. You do that over the course of a whole season and they'll give you two Cy Young awards at the end of the year.

* Santana peaked at 5.2 K/BB, Lincecum at 3.8, and Greinke got up to 4.75 in 2009. 11 is off the fucking charts.

Of course, nobody's saying Liriano can keep that pace up. It's impossible for a reason. But don't you want to at least find out before you make a decision that's even more damaging to the team's chances of winning than losing Nathan in the first place?

Hey, it could work. The Twins are famous for their scouting acumen, and choosing this season's closer is a pure scouting decision. If it's my team, though, I see if Liriano can maintain a brilliant strikeout-to-walk ratio over the course of 200 innings rather than 65.

Yes. My thoughts exactly. Let's hope the Twins' front office is a little bit calmer than the writers who are getting ravenous for a storyline.

Is Gardy already jerking Neshek around?

2010-03-26T00:00:00-07:00

All spring, I've been hopeful that Pat Neshek would make the team and we'd get to see that funky delivery -- and all those strikeouts! -- in early April. The first time I actually saw him pitch was this week against the Red Sox, and his stuff looked filthy. He was hitting his spots with tons of movement, and the Red Sox hitters were totally off balance.

I mentioned it on Twitter and got a quick response from Neshek himself, who apparently watches his name online as eagerly as he watches the speedometer when he's on the mound:

@sirsean Thank you...I was scoreboard checking and noticed a few 89's...Lavelle is reporting my high at 88...false journalism! -- @PatNeshek

@sirsean That was the best my slider has felt since the surgery...glad to have that pitch working -- @PatNeshek

I think it's awesome that he responded directly to me about that, and I think it's encouraging that his velocity is almost all the way back, and that his slider might be getting back as well. Could it be that Neshek is almost ready?

Well, it turns out that Gardy doesn't really want to find out.

Manager Ron Gardenhire said Thursday that the next step is for Neshek to pitch with one day's rest -- Friday then Sunday. Other Twins relievers have started throwing on back-to-back days.

So he's finally going to go down to one day of rest, well-delayed compared to the rest of the relievers. I'd like to know why. What does Neshek have to say about it?

Been ready to throw back 2 back days from day 1, never mentioned soreness being an issue 1 time, this upsets me. http://bit.ly/aRdLHD -- @PatNeshek

According to Neshek, he's ready to go back to back days just like everyone else, and hasn't needed to be babied like this. There's something to be said for caution, especially with a valuable member of the team who's returning from injury. But we're a week away from Opening Day, and the schedule Gardy's set for Neshek seems to say he never planned on letting him make the team from the beginning.

"If they can't bounce back on a day-to-day basis, it's hard to keep guys like that in the bullpen," Gardenhire said. "You can't have all these guys out here that need two or three days off after they throw, especially early in the season. So we're waiting to see where everybody's at."

How long are you going to wait? Too long?

Fantasy Baseball

2010-03-25T00:00:00-07:00

Welcome to the new site! I hope you enjoy it, and make sure to tell your friends who may have been turned off by the old FireGardy moniker.

In other news, I had my first fantasy baseball draft of the season last night. It was auction style, and I had never done that before. It was quite interesting, but I don't think I was as patient as I should have been. I missed out on some good value picks (Kevin Slowey, and Scott Feldman to name two) late in the draft because I had already spent most of my $260 and was forced to scrounge up $1 players for my last 10 picks or so. Here is the rundown of players I got and the associated cost. They are in the order I drafted them, but that is essentially meaningless. Another thing to keep in mind is that instead of having 3 OF, we have to have 1 CF, 1 RF, 1 LF.

Chipper Jones- $9
Tim Lincecum- $40
Ben Zobrist (he can play roughly 35 different positions)- $30
Joe Mauer-$36
Brian Roberts- $16
Cliff Lee- $18
Nate McLouth- $9
Ubaldo Jimenez- $19
Johnny Damon- $11
Aramis Ramierz- $17
Michael Cuddyer- $12
Kendry Morales- $20
Jonathan Papelbon- $12
Milton Bradley- $1
Ryan Rabur- $2
Joe Blanton- $1
Felipe Lopez- $1
Alfredo Aceves- $1
Michael Wuertz- $1
Tim Hudson- $1
Derek Lowe- $1
Phil Hughes- $1
Jim Thome- $1

The pick that really put me over the edge was Papelbon. He should rack up a fair number of saves, but I could have gotten two lower tier closers for that price, and not driven myself into "$2 max bid" territory. If anyone has an auction draft coming up, I recommend you be patient, there will be lots of value picks at the end, so make sure you have a high enough max bid at that point to be able to take advantage. I really like my late picks of Lowe, Hudson, and Hughes. If Bradley can revert back to close to what he did in Texas in 08, he will be a steal. I'm not counting on it though.

Does anyone else have any draft results they care to brag about/show everyone how much you suck at fantasy baseball.

Welcome to Hitting the Foul Pole!

2010-03-24T00:00:00-07:00

This marks the first post that will live solely on the new Hitting the Foul Pole blog, and not be shared with the old blog. I think we're both happy to be here, and hopefully you don't mind making the trip with us. And how about that picture up there?

Oh, and also, Ryan McCrystal -- if that is his real name, which I doubt -- over at the ESPN TMI blog asks if Mauer's contract is exorbitant.

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Mauer is now the highest paid catcher in terms of average annual salary by nearly $10M. His $23M per year deal is 43 percent more than Jorge Posada’s current $13.1M per year deal with the Yankees. Anyone in their right mind would take Mauer over Posada, but is he 43 percent better?

Well, in 2009 Mauer was worth 8.1 WAR to Posada's 3.9, and in 2008 Mauer was 5.8 to Posada's 0.8 WAR. Not only is Mauer at least 43% more valuable, he's not even the one who's overpaid.

What, you didn't think I'd let you out of this inaugural post without a little Twins-related quip, did you?

2010 Predictions sure to be wrong

2010-03-24T00:00:00-07:00

Well, we're less than two weeks away from Opening Day, so it is time to make 2010 projections. I'm going to do division winner, playoff winners, and league MVP and Cy Young award winners. Feel free to leave your predictions in the comments section, or yell at me if you think I'm wrong.

American League:

West: Rangers. I think they have the pitching to win, and if Hamilton stays healthy their offense will score enough runs to support said pitching.

Central: Twins. This is the best lineup they've had in years, and the starting rotation is solid, if unspectacular. Having Pavanoand Slowey for an entire season won't force Ron Gardenhire to start a string of AAAA players in important stretch run games.

East: Yankees. If it ain't broke.....

Wild Card: Angels. It was a toss up for the west crown, and I think the big boys of the AL east will beat up on each other enough to let the Angels take the wild card.

MVP: Joe Mauer. I'm tempted to pick Texiera, but I guess I'm too much of a homer. It will be another close one, especially if A-Rod plays the full season.

Cy Young: CC Sabbathia. I think the voters will revert to the "ooh, look at all those wins" style of voting, which will preventGrienke from winning his second in a row.

National League

West: Rockies. If they can get their closer situation figured out, they should have no problem winning the division. The return of Jeff Francis will more than offset the loss of Jason Marquis.

Central: Cardinals. They have two of the best starters in the NL headlining their rotation, and the best hitter of my generation. I can't find a reason to pick against them.

East: Phillies. Roy Halladay might actually win 30 games in his switch to the NL. The Marlins and Braves could challenge them for a while, but the Phillies will pull away by midseason.

Wild Card: Marlins. Josh Johnson is a legitimate ace, and Ricky Nolasco should see his ERA take a large dip due to his good peripheral numbers. Hanley Ramierz anchors a young, but talented offense. Florida can win a lot of games on the strength of their starting pitching.

Cy Young: Josh Johnson. The two cards pitchers will take votes away from each other, gift wrapping the award for Johnson

MVP: Albert Pujols. He's a machine.

Playoffs:

LDS

Yankees over Angels

Twins over Rangers

Cards over Marlins

Phillies over Rockies

LCS

Twins over Yankees. (I know, I know)

Phillies over Cards

World Series

I'm not going to venture a guess.

So there you go. What do you guys think?

The Twins Way of Thinking

2010-03-23T00:00:00-07:00

I just read an interesting interview with Rob Antony -- the Twins' assistant GM -- and it focused mainly on a hypothetical situation involving "RBI guys." The question was, if you're looking to sign a free agent, would you target a guy who had a high RBI total, or a guy with a high slugging percentage?

Antony replied that he would prefer the player with the higher RBI total. “Because you win with runs,” he said. “And I want that guy because you also have the correlation with a better batting average with runners in scoring position – he’s the guy that can step-up, the guy you want at the plate.”

“I think guys are pitched differently when they have a chance to do damage and they can’t make adjustments. Then, sometimes the guy with a bunch of home runs and few RBI with nobody on base, they challenge him, and you look and a lot of those guys do their production with the team behind and they tack it on and enjoy a solo home run in the eighth inning.”

Yeah yeah, Mr Antony, we all hate A-Rod and all those pointless 8th inning homers. (Though I wonder if the people who think 8th inning homers are pointless would rather not have those runs.) Anyway. Not the point.

If a scout or evaluator "sees something" in a guy that says he has the fortitude to hit well in scoring opportunities, that's one thing. But if it's a tautological "he's a run producer because he had a big RBI year" line of reasoning, that's where the problem is.

There is a non-statistical way of thinking about baseball. I know that because it's all anybody really knew for 80 years; I also know that because there are still several teams that subscribe to it. The Twins are one of them.

A problem I've seen is when the younger statistically-minded community conflates "the non-statistical way of thinking" with "anti-statistically not thinking."

Whether the Twins are right and Morneau drives in runs because of something intrinsic to him and his ability to make adjustments better than the pitchers he faces, or the numbers are right and Morneau produces runs because he's a good hitter with a high slugging percentage and he happens to bat behind Mauer and Span who are always on base, well, does it matter? Morneau is still Morneau.

When the Twins are evaluating a player, I'm curious as to how they do it (that's why I try to hunt down articles like this one that offer a glimpse). Do they watch the hitter in some run-producing situations and see how he handles it and extrapolate based on their experience how he'd do over the course of a season? Or do they do a cursory, limited version of statistical analysis, see a high RBI total at some point, and conclude that this is an RBI guy?

That's a lot more important to me than the organization actually using modern analysis to their advantage -- I want to know that the Twins are actually thinking -- whatever their process -- as opposed to being fools.

Obviously, the results this decade have been good. It's working. But I want to keep up my hope that it'll keep working.

How long will Mauer last?

2010-03-23T00:00:00-07:00

The Twins have Mauer under contract now for the next nine years; it's my opinion that signing this deal was completely necessary for the Twins, despite the much-talked-about downside risks inherent in any long term contract and compounded by Mauer's position, height, and injury history.

Fangraphs has already pointed out that Mauer's bat is good enough to play anywhere on the diamond, but the Twins wouldn't have felt quite as pressed to make this deal for a first baseman as they were for a catcher. The question today, though, is this: how long will Mauer stick at catcher?

Colin Wyers takes a look at this over at ESPN's TMI blog (insider only), and takes a somewhat interesting tack. He finds that the average catcher stays at the position for 10 years, and has a total career lasting 11 years; they don't last long in the league once they leave the position. But Wyers acknowledges that Mauer isn't average, so he narrows it down to just the catchers who had a career after catcher, and finds that they played an average of 7 years at catcher and a total career of 12 years.

Mauer's already been in the league for six years, and the Twins are banking on his career lasting at least 15 years. According to Wyers' analysis, this would be so far above the average that you simply can't expect it to happen.

the odds are that Mauer won't be able to remain a full-time catcher much more than halfway through this contract, so by then the Twins had better have a contingency plan in place.

I'm going to go ahead and disagree with his conclusion here. This is a very simplistic look at things, and basing it on the average career is a major problem to begin with -- Joe Mauer is a singular talent, and what an average player does simply has no bearing on what he might do.

Secondly, he limited the pool of players he looked at pretty strictly. Their careers had to start in 1974 or later, and they must have retired by now. That ignores most of the historical comparisons to Mauer, including Yogi Berra, Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk, Jorge Posada, Jason Varitek, and others. I'm basically throwing out a list of the greatest catchers ever for a reason -- Mauer is one of them.

If you decide to judge Mauer's potential career against those of other great catchers, as opposed to the average catcher, would you really come to the conclusion that the odds are against him lasting past age 32? Posada is still going strong at age 37; Varitek was never as good as Mauer and stopped being any good at age 35; Bench was still great at 33 but was done by 35; Fisk was still great at age 42 (despite a couple down years at 38-39, from which he rebounded); Berra was good through age 36, and even posted a 138 OPS+ in limited action at 38.

Barring a major injury, there seems to be little reason to believe that Mauer's catching career will end in his early 30s. In fact, judging by more recent players who, like Mauer, have been able to take advantage in modern advances in nutrition and exercise, he may even be worth a multi-year contract at age 36 when he hits the market again. Posada was.

There are no guarantees in life, or in baseball. But the assumption that Mauer's career is already on the brink of collapse because he's pushing up against the limits of the length of the average catcher's career is naive and unhelpful.

Mauer is on track to be an inner circle hall of famer, and there is almost no reason to think he'll be anything but one of the best players in the game for at least the next five years; by then, he will have virtually assured himself a plaque in Cooperstown with a TC on his hat.

At the end of the day, no, we don't know how long Mauer will be crouching behind the plate at Target Field. But it shouldn't be too much of a task to sit back and enjoy the show, however long it lasts.

Introducing the Span Fan t-shirt!

2010-03-22T00:00:00-07:00

We tried to make a t-shirt once in the past, the "Free Jason Kubel" shirt -- it was a cool shirt, I thought, but we had it made shortly before Kubel was freed and took advantage of it by establishing himself as one of the best hitter on the team and assuring himself a spot in the lineup. Whenever I wear it, I get quizzical looks and questions like "Who is Jason Kubel, some sort of political prisoner?" or, more rarely, "Why does Kubel need to be freed? Isn't he good?"

So maybe it's time for a new t-shirt, one that won't be obsolete immediately.

Let's see ... we want a young, popular (but not too popular just yet) player, under contract for several years, with potential to improve and -- why don't I just stop right there. You know what I'm getting at.

Introducing the brand new, FireGardy.com exclusive Span Fan t-shirt!

You can customize the color of the sleeves if you want -- I just went with the standard black sleeves. Since mine was delivered, I've worn it constantly.

I know for a fact that FunBobby will be wearing his to Opening Day -- so look for the guy who looks like a happier version of Glen Perkins wearing an awesome Span Fan t-shirt, and feel free to get jealous that your t-shirt is so lacking in coolness. Then solve that problem by getting your very own Span Fan shirt.

Sorry about the blatant self-promotion. Of course, we'll try to keep this kind of crap to a minimum (which I think we've done over the years).

Nathan plays catch, makes a decision about surgery

2010-03-21T00:00:00-07:00

Bad news, everyone!

Joe Nathan played catch with Rick Anderson this morning, to determine if he could pitch through his injury and get by without having Tommy John surgery. His conclusion? No.

"Didn’t go like we hoped," Nathan said. "We knew it was a long shot, but what this did do is clear my head. Definitely was no gray area. Definitely was on the black side, where it didn’t go as well as we like, and we know now we’re going to have to go in and get some surgery done, get this thing fixed up."

Joe Christensen watched the throwing session, and said Nathan was "making some strong throws before it ended," and that he couldn't tell whether it had gone badly.

"As we kept throwing, it became clear that it was getting harder and harder to play catch," Nathan said. "It became clear that it didn’t feel great. This was going to be an easy answer for me to know I wouldn’t be able to pitch without getting this thing taken care of."

I'm glad there's no gray area for him in this, and that it was such an easy decision. This is not something Nathan should be second-guessed about all summer, every time a lesser reliever struggles in the 9th inning. I think we all knew this had to be done, and this just makes it official.

Given that the estimated recovery time is 12 months, we now await the news as to when he's having the surgery; Nathan himself said "as soon as possible," and hopefully he's going by his own definition of the words "soon" and "possible," rather than the Twins' version which would undoubtedly have him wait until November to have the surgery.

Great News! Mauer Signs.

2010-03-21T00:00:00-07:00

The Twins have agreed to terms with starting catcher Joe Mauer. The deal is reportedly 8 years, $184 million with a full no trade clause. A press conference is scheduled for Monday night at the Twins complex in Ft. Myers. This is great news people. The average annual value is $23 million, a hair more than Texiera is making in New York. If there was a hometown discount, there wasn't much of one. I would imagine he would be getting $25ish from the New York/Boston team. 8 years is a long time, but it will cover Mauer's age 28-35 seasons which are his prime years.

What does everyone else think? We will break it down further once more details come out at the press conference tomorrow.

Evaluating Mauer's new contract

2010-03-21T00:00:00-07:00

Now that Mauer has signed his contract extension, paying him $23M per season from 2011-2018, let's take a look at how the contract values Mauer as a player, and also how much the Twins paid per win.

It's tough to pin down exactly what Mauer's true talent level is -- he just posted an 8.1 WAR (partial) season, which is incredible, and also has two 6 WAR seasons and two ~3 WAR seasons under his belt. Meanwhile, those values do not account for how good he is behind the plate.

At Fangraphs, both CHONE and the FANS project him to 7.3 WAR for 2010, which seems reasonable; I think it'll be helpful to look at this contract in a few different scenarios: 7.0 WAR (in case his talent lies lower than the CHONE projection), 7.3 WAR (the projection is accurate), and 8.0 WAR (either the power wasn't an illusion and he can keep this up, or we take his excellent defense into account and add a win).

I'll assume that he stays at this value through age 30, and then starts to decline at 5% per year* after that.

* In a previous analysis I had assumed a 0.5 WAR per year decline, which seemed like a really fast decline. I've seen 5% per year used at Fangraphs.

Here are the annual win values the Twins can expect to get from Mauer based on our three options for his current true talent level:

True talent level: 7.0 WAR 7.0, 7.0, 7.0, 6.65, 6.3, 6.0, 5.7, 5.4 Total: 51.1 WAR

True talent level: 7.3 WAR 7.3, 7.3, 7.3, 6.9, 6.6, 6.3, 5.9, 5.6 Total: 53.3 WAR

True talent level: 8.0 WAR 8.0, 8.0, 8.0, 7.6, 7.2, 6.9, 6.5, 6.2 Total: 58.4 WAR

Note: I rounded to one decimal point for display, but not in the calculations. So if these numbers don't appear to add up exactly right, that's why.

Obviously, that's a lot of wins that the Twins are getting, regardless of which one is "true." But at the same time, they're paying a lot of money for it. This is the fourth largest contract in MLB history, behind ARod, ARod,* and Jeter.

* What people never seem to point out about ARod's first mega-deal, the $252M one, is that he opted out with three years left on it, eschewing like $80M in salary. So the amount he actually got PAID from that contract is less than Mauer's new deal. Just saying.

So what rate are the Twins paying, given that they're handing over $184M?

In scenario 1, where Mauer's a 7 WAR player, they're paying $3.6M/win. In scenario 2, where Mauer's a 7.3 WAR player, they're paying $3.45M/win. In scenario 3, where Mauer's an 8 WAR player, they're paying just $3.15M/win.

Basically, the Twins just inked a deal locking in today's depressed market rates for nine years into the future. We then have to balance that against the fact that he'll be the highest-paid catcher in the league for the entire life of the deal, and he'll be 35 years old in the final year -- of course, if we look at Jorge Posada's aging process, maybe that won't be a huge problem.

And in case you were wondering, if the Twins had had to sign this contract in the economic environment of two years ago, when wins cost $4.5M apiece on the market, this same contract would have been worth either $230M, $240M, or $262M. Wow.

My dad thinks it was pointless for Mauer to have wasted a few years in the minor leagues -- he's a once-in-a-generation talent, who was one of the best defensive catchers in the majors at age 18, and so overmatched his minor league opposition at every level that they simply pitched around him. In hindsight, we've learned that his swing didn't change at all since high school, and in fact nothing about his game (or his sideburns, for that matter) has changed. I don't think it's crazy to think Mauer would have found success at age 19, rather than waiting until he was 21 to make his debut (and 22 until his first full season). Might he even have another batting title (or two) under his belt right now?

Of course we'll never know what would have happened, and what his career might have looked like. But if it had been exactly the same, and the only difference was that he signed this extension two years ago, the Twins would have had to pay a much higher rate per win. And because they delayed bringing him up, they potentially saved $50-80M over 8 years. From the team's perspective, I sure wouldn't call that pointless.

So is the deal, in the end, a good one? It's practically impossible to call any 8 year, $184M contract a "team-friendly" one, so I won't. But I will say that the Twins' front office has shown itself to be eager to take advantage of the current market rate to lock in long-term deals, and thus deserves some credit for "astuteness" rather than simply "luck" in taking the opportunity to lock in perhaps the most valuable player in the game for the lion's share of his career.

And it's been a while since anyone could realistically call the Twins' front office "astute" with a straight face.

Valencia's demotion, explained

2010-03-20T00:00:00-07:00

Yesterday, Danny Valencia homered off Johan Santana, and was rewarded by being cut from major league camp -- it seemed pretty abrupt to me. But thanks to Joe C, we have an explanation:

Players on the 40-man roster who did not finish the previous year in the majors need to be optioned before today (16 days before Opening Day), or, in the event of an injury, they must be kept on the major league DL.

Since Valencia was expected to contend for the starting third base job, his cut seemed particularly abrupt.

I don't know if I'd use the word "expected" here. A better choice, I think, would be "hoped." I believe Valencia is almost ready for a promotion to the majors, and a half-season or so in AAA to make some adjustments to his approach at the plate would definitely do him good.

Even more than that, though, is the fact that Gardy is still the manager around here, and there's nothing he hates more than:

Young, talented players
Anything that might cut into Nick Punto's playing time

That's why I was so interested to read even the most cursory scouting report from Gardy, about Valencia.

Asked what impression Valencia made this spring, Gardenhire said, "He was fine. He moved around just fine. A good arm. He’s still got to learn where to play guys defensively and all those things. His bat seems good, there’s things he’s going to have work on, hitting the breaking ball and all those things. We saw teams that knew him down here they were spinning a lot of balls. ... But I guarantee you one thing: He can hit a fastball, and if he sits on a breaking ball, he can hit that, too. ... We’re going to go away here with our infield, and if anybody has any issues, he’ll get a chance."

Of course, no mention of the thing Valencia actually needs to work on: plate discipline. I've talked about this before, but throughout the minors Valencia has struggled to draw walks in his first half-season or so at each level, but then adapts and his OBP jumps up, leading to a promotion and the cycle starts over. Also, it's probably more important that he learn to a) avoid swinging at breaking balls, and b) foul them off when there are two strikes, but that's not Gardy's game.

In fact, there's little surprise Gardy didn't talk about Valencia's strike zone control or plate discipline. There's just about no evidence that he's aware that either of those things exist.

So there's nothing wrong with Valencia being sent down, and the Twins essentially waited until the deadline to do it. And he's just a heartbeat away from a promotion.

Thome on the Twins' clubhouse atmosphere

2010-03-20T00:00:00-07:00

An email from Pat Neshek to Buster Olney (insider only) sheds some light on the Twins' clubhouse atmosphere.

"Our bullpen really centers around Nathan, so this, of course, is a huge blow to the 'pen. When I first got up in 2006, I was amazed that the bullpen guys all stretched together, hung out together and did things off the field together.

"As far as the bullpen goes, Nathan and Matt Guerrier are the best of friends. Jesse Crain is not too far behind and always together with them. Jose Mijares is quiet and does his own thing. I can't quite get a read on Clay Condrey. In years past it was this way as well. We like to run and lift together and do things as a group and I'm pretty sure this doesn't happen with other teams. Jim Thome was commenting the other day to Kevin Slowey that this was probably the nicest atmosphere and bunch of guys he has been around, it was cool to hear coming from him."

I imagine the Indians and White Sox won't be too pleased to hear that; at the same time, though, Thome spent his tenure with those teams sharing a clubhouse with Albert Belle and AJ Pierzynksi, so maybe it's not saying too much.

Of course it remains impossible to measure a team's "chemistry." Still, reports of good chemistry are encouraging -- especially coming from a long-time veteran player, at a time when the team isn't winning.

Yet.

You can thank Mauer for Sano/Jean

2010-03-19T00:00:00-07:00

We have an update on one of the Twins' bright new prospects, Miguel Angel Sano/Jean, in the form of some sour grapes from Pittsburgh. Dejan Kovacevic, the talented Pirates beat writer, says the early indications "sure sound liek a match for all those long-stared, lofty expectations," and the article is filled with thinly veiled criticism of the Pittsburgh front office for falling short in its efforts to sign Sano/Jean.

On Thursday, before the Pirates and Twins played a Grapefruit League game at adjacent Hammond Stadium, Sano stood out in stature and talent in his group of rookie-level minor leaguers: He looked smooth and natural in all facets, and he homered deep to left in his batting practice.

That's exactly what I had hoped to hear. Often, these hot shot Dominican prospects are considered "raw," and their futures are all based on their "projectable" bodies; unlike Carlos Gomez, it's possible that Sano/Jean may not have as long a road to "learning the game." And that'd be a big bonus.

But perhaps the most interesting part of the article is the quotes from Sano/Jean himself.

Earlier in the week, Sano told the St. Paul Pioneer Press that he chose the Twins because of star players Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.

"I want to be able to play with them," Sano said through an interpreter.

If you needed another reason for the Twins to do whatever they can to sign Mauer, you've got it. Sure, the big stars in the middle of the lineup are key to winning games, and marketing the franchise, and drawing fans to the stadium. But they also are instrumental in attracting high upside talent to the organization.

Regarding his bonus, the highest ever for a Latin American position player: "Right now, I really don't look at money. I let my mom worry about that. In two or three years, when I get to Major League Baseball, I'll start thinking about it."

That's right. The money was less important to him than the chance to be on the field with Mauer and Morneau.

If Mauer signs a long term contract, I think we can expect to see some more prospects like Sano/Jean to find their way, moth-like, to the bright lights put off by these stars.

Span's Baserunning

2010-03-19T00:00:00-07:00

If you feel like I've been posting about Denard Span a lot, you're right! That's what you get for having a CF-playing leadoff hitter who keeps doing interesting things like running his own Twitter account and signing team-friendly extensions and such. So deal with it.

This time around, it's Span's speed and baserunning ability that step to the foreground. Buster Olney passes along some quick bits from Katie Sharp of ESPN Stats & Information (insider only):

"Span stole only 23 bases last season (tied for 32nd in MLB), but that statistic really doesn't give a complete picture of his baserunning ability. According to Baseball-Reference.com, Span accumulated 29 Bases Taken (includes bases advanced on fly balls, passed balls, wild pitches, balks and defensive indifference), the second-highest total in the majors last season. Here's the list of the highest from last season:

David Wright - 31 Denard Span - 29 Troy Tulowitzki - 27 Dexter Fowler - 27

Here's another impressive stat for the speedy Span: He had a .667 batting average on bunts (10 hits, 15 at-bats), which is nearly double the major league average of .376.

As I understand it, Fangraphs' WAR does not include baserunning, which means these Bases Taken increases Span's actual value significantly, and I didn't take it into account when determining whether his contract was a good one.

The aggressive base-taking skills combined with the excellent speed that it takes to go 10/15 on bunts should mean that Span has the ability to steal considerably more than 23 bases in a season; of course, base stealing is a skill that Denard may not have developed yet, but I'd be curious to see what he can do once he does.

While it's generally considered a bad idea to try to steal bases with your best hitters at the plate (because you don't want to take the bat out of their hands), it seems to me that the fact that Orlando Hudson and Joe Mauer both ground into a ton of double plays should encourage the Twins to work with Span-the-speedy-onbase-machine to take the next step in becoming the ultimate leadoff hitter, and start stealing second base to take the GIDP off the list of possibilities for Hudson's and Mauer's plate appearances.

So what do you think? Should Span be trying to steal more? How many bases do you think he's capable of stealing in a season? 30? 40? Let me know in the comments.

Rooting for Brock Peterson

2010-03-19T00:00:00-07:00

Buster Olney relates this interesting story about Twins prospect Brock Peterson (insider only):

Twins infielder Brock Peterson had this story of justice from last year. He was at the plate and smoked a foul ball into the stands and hit a woman square in the forehead, the blood pouring off the wound. Peterson was shaken by this, stepped out of the batter's box to try to compose himself, and the home plate umpire humanely encouraged him to get settled. "He gave me something like three minutes," Peterson recalled.

As medical personnel rushed to help the woman -- who would turn out to be OK -- Peterson remained out of the box. The opposing pitcher started yelling for him to get going, to get the game restarted. The pitcher's demeanor, in the face of what was going on in the stands, apparently bothered the umpire, because when Peterson took a 3-2 pitch right down the middle, the umpire called it ball four.

Frankly, I'd rather the umpires stick to the strike zone rather than trying to judge the pitcher's morals.

But I think this story brings into focus the fact that a baseball game isn't the safest place to be, and that when a fan gets hurt the players themselves can be just as shaken as the injured party.

I know Brock Peterson will probably never play for the Twins -- he's stuck behind these guys called "Justin Morneau" and "Jason Kubel" -- but as of now I'm rooting for him to succeed in this league. I hope he makes it somewhere.

Heath Bell?

2010-03-19T00:00:00-07:00

According to the always excellent Craig Calcaterra (via Bob Nightengale), the Twins are scouting Padres closer Heath Bell. I don't think Joe Nathan can avoid TJ surgery, so kicking the tires on some proven closers won't hurt. As I recall the price for Bell was pretty steep last year, so I can't imagine it going down after his strong 2009 campaign.

However, if the price is reasonable, the Twins should pull the trigger. Bell isn't making much this year ($4 million according to the article) and would fit nicely in the back of the bullpen. The two major red flags on Bell are he is coming from an extreme pitchers park in the NL, so who knows how that will translate to Target Field. Like I said, it can't hurt to kick the tires on some proven guys to replace Nathan, but I don't see any fire behind this smoke.

Twins take a lead in exploiting a new trend in baseball economics

2010-03-16T00:00:00-07:00

Jack Moore over at FanGraphs took a look at Span's contract this morning, and came to a similar conclusion that I did: it makes some sense for Span to take the security of the long term deal, but the Twins are getting themselves a real bargain.

He notes that the Twins are paying for a 2.5 win player and Span seems to be better than that; he notes that Span has skills that could pay him well in arbitration (high batting average and stolen bases); he notes that Span's switch to CF could drive his value further; he notes that Span is only 26 and could still see his performance improve.

But his take on the timing of the deal with regards to the economy is what I find perhaps most interesting, and is something I feel I didn't articulate well enough in my own post:

What particularly makes this deal great from a team perspective for me is the timing of the deal. Many economists say that we are starting to move out of the recession, and that suggests that the marginal value of a win will likely start climbing in 2012 if not before that. By the time 2014 rolls around, $6.5 million may only buy one win instead nearly two. Even more than that, the likely inflation of the win market could make the non-guaranteed 2015 team option look fantastic if Span is still a productive player at the time.

Precisely. These contracts for Blackburn and (especially) Span may be most valuable in that they're effectively locking in not only the players' apparently undervalued status, but also the deflated cost of a win on the market. That $9M option for a 2.5-3.3 WAR player in 2015 would be an absolute no-brainer if the market rebounds and a win costs $5M or more by then.

Moore predicts we'll see teams follow the Twins' lead and lock in the currently deflated market rates for their pre-arbitration players. I think he's right, and I think it's mighty interesting that the Twins seem to be on the forefront of exploiting a new trend in baseball economics.

And as you may have guessed, I remain extremely interested in how this trend effects Mauer's contract; ie, whether the Twins can lock in a mega-deal at today's deeply discounted rates.

An improved defense may mean more than you think

2010-03-16T00:00:00-07:00

I've thought for a while that a pitcher can help out his defense by working quickly and throwing strikes. When I was young and still played, I found that being in the field was a whole lot more fun when the pitcher was putting the ball over the plate (and, in turn, the batters were putting the ball in play). If you can reasonably expect a ball to be hit at you at any time, you're engaged the entire time -- and if you're not, the manager notices your crappy defense and attitude sticking out from the rest of the team who are engaged.

On the other hand, when the pitcher couldn't find the zone, was stalling between pitches, and was walking guys, I wasn't alone among the fielders in getting bored. And when you're bored, you're less ready to leap into action on the off-chance the ball actually does come into play.

So one area in which I think defensive metrics have plenty of room to improve is in figuring out just how much this interplay between a pitcher and his fielders exists and (more importantly) how much it matters to run prevention. Does the efficacy of the defense change depending on anything the pitcher does? When Scott Baker or Mark Buehrle work quickly, does their defense play better than when another pitcher wastes as much time as he can out there? Does Kevin Slowey's propensity to pound the strike zone encourage his defenders to stay more alert than, say, Clayton Kershaw or AJ Burnett?

I don't know. Nobody has any numbers for that yet.

But there's also the possibility that this interplay works in the opposite direction. From an interview with CJ Wilson:

The moral of the story is that a guy like me or Feldman or whatever, who was a reliever, that wants to be a starter for Texas, that should be just an overall positive thing that the organization has come a long way (from years ago) when we had such a stigma attached to being a pitcher in Texas. Now, it's like people are really excited to play here, to pitch with Elvis Andrus at shortstop, and Mike Young at third base, and Kinsler at second and Chris Davis at first. For me, that's a big thing for us, is that our defense is so much better that people are excited to be pitchers now for us.

And that's definitely interesting. For the longest time, pitchers didn't want to pitch in Arlington, and free agents wouldn't sign with the Rangers for that very reason. At the time, everyone blamed that on the "bandbox" nature of the stadium; after all, pitchers don't want to pitch in an environment virtually guaranteed to induce more home runs.

But maybe, just maybe, it was never the stadium after all? If pitchers don't like giving up home runs, maybe the reason is that they just don't like giving up runs in the first place. And there's no doubt that for many years, the Rangers were an offensively-oriented team, with sluggers and run producers throughout the lineup but nary a defensive whiz to be found.

And that's changing now; they have a strong defensive infield and a small outfield that minimizes the impact of their outfielders' range. And suddenly the pitchers are a lot happier.

David Pinto writes: "Better defense means less frustration for the pitcher and less work as he doesn’t need to get four outs in an inning."

One of the reasons Twins fans are excited about 2010 is the drastically improved middle infield -- JJ Hardy and Orlando Hudson figure to combine for some good-to-excellent defense, and third base is Punto's best position (ie, the one at which he plays the best defense).

I don't think it's possible to guess how many runs the Twins' new infield will save over 2009; but we can take a look at some UZR numbers and compare them.

2009 Twins infield

Actual 2009 UZR/150, sorted by playing time (decreasing)

2B: Nick Punto: 9.4 UZR/150, Alexi Casilla: -20.9 UZR/150, Matt Tolbert: -12.7 UZR/150
3B: Joe Crede: 23.4 UZR/150, Brendan Harris: -26.3 UZR/150, Brian Buscher: -12.2 UZR/150, Matt Tolbert: 10.6 UZR/150
SS: Orlando Cabrera: -14.8 UZR/150, Nick Punto: 4.7 UZR/150, Brendan Harris: -14.8 UZR/150

2010 Twins infield

Career UZR/150

2B: Orlando Hudson: 2.6 UZR/150
3B: Nick Punto: 19.9 UZR/150
SS: JJ Hardy: 11.2 UZR/150

Hudson is getting older and his defense probably won't be as good as everyone thinks it is -- but there's little chance he's as bad at it as Casilla and Tolbert were in 2009. Meanwhile, 3B stays close to constant with Punto manning it most of the time, and SS takes a huge jump up.

Now, I don't think these numbers can tell us how much the Twins' run prevention will improve in 2010.* But I think it's fair to say that the improved infield defense will help with preventing runs -- though less than it might given the staff's propensity for giving up fly balls.

* But if you believe UZR is an accurate statistic, we're talking in the range of 3-5 wins. As in, the Twins got 5 wins better simply by improving the infield defense, without taking into account the offensive production of either Hardy or Hudson. Like I said, maybe UZR can't be trusted. Either way, this sounds like a whole lot of improvement. More than I would have guessed ... and it sure paints the projections of the Twins struggling to reach 85 wins in a different light.

So this summer, when all the Twins' pitchers seem happier than usual, will it be because of their lower ERAs? Or will both the happiness and the lower ERAs be because of the improved defense?

Let's take a look at Span's new contract!

2010-03-14T00:00:00-08:00

This weekend, the Twins signed Denard Span to a five year extension for $16.5M guaranteed -- it covers two pre-arbitration years and all three of his arbitration years, plus an extension for his first year of free agency in 2015.

The terms of his deal are as follows:

$0.75M (second pre-arbitration year, age 26)
$1M (final pre-arbitration year, age 27)
3M (first arbitration year, age 28)
$4.75M (second arbitration year, age 29)
$6.5M (third arbitration year, age 30)
$9M (team option for first free agent year, age 31)

I've always read on Fangraphs that the arbitration years are typically set at 40%/60%/80% of a player's market value; but that doesn't seem to be the case here. If the option is his full market value, this contract gives him 33%/52%/72% ... but if the option represents a 10% discount (which would not be unusual at all), his arbitration years are paying him just 30%/47%/65%. At first blush, this contract seems like a highly team-friendly deal even before considering how Span is being valued.

But that raises the interesting question: How is Span being valued? We're all familiar with his story by now: a minor league track record that looked a lot like a first-round bust, a fourth-outfielder; shows up in the majors and has a breakout rookie campaign, compiling 2.6 WAR in a partial season; establishes himself as a star-caliber player with 3.9 WAR in his first full season. It's possible that 2009 was a career year, and he can't keep up that pace ... but he was 25 years old and it's also possible that he hasn't even reaching his peak yet.

CHONE projects him at 3.3 WAR, which would peg the market value of a win in this contract at $3M/win. If CHONE is being optimistic and he's actually, say, a 3 WAR player, the Twins are paying $3.3M/win. If CHONE is being way too conservative and Span's true talent level is actually 4 WAR, then the Twins are paying just $2.5M/win (which is way too low, I think, implying that Span is being paid as a 3.3 WAR player at most).

I've seen mixed reactions to this contract since it first hit Twitter yesterday. Many people are thrilled that the Twins have "locked up" Span for the next 5 years, ignoring that he was already under team control for all five of those years. I saw one opinion, from Thrylos98, claiming that the Twins are paying him too much (I can't understand how he could back that claim up, though). And I've seen others who seem to think this deal is pointless except for the option year covering his first free agent year, giving the Twins none extra year of control over Span's career.

But let's take a look at it from the perspective of risk -- risk is the reason players sign extensions like these, and it's also what teams have to worry about when offering them. Span could have simply declined to sign this extension and go year-to-year through his arbitration years, trying to maximize the amount he gets paid,* though by doing so he'd risk a career-ending injury or a collapse of his skills. So he gives up some money in return for the security of the long-term contract -- but typically not that much.

* And given the low percentages of his value he's being paid, it's a good assumption that he'd make quite a bit more year-to-year even if you don't think that either he's going to continue producing star-level 4 WAR seasons OR the economy will recover even a little bit over the next five years.

From the team's perspective, there are more risks involved. If they didn't offer the extension and were going to go year-to-year, they'd still have Span on the team for the next five years, but would be risking the following:

2009 was not Span's peak, and he continues to improve in his age 26 and 27 years
The economic environment in baseball improves, driving up the cost of wins so they'd have to pay him more even if he stops playing as well
He successfully adapts to CF, driving up his value (a CF is a lot more valuable than a corner OF)

On the other hand, by offering this contract they open themselves up to these risks:

2009 was Span's peak, and his 4+ WAR upside is an illusion
He gets injured and can't play (or can't play at his normal level)
He can't handle CF and has to move back to a corner, causing personnel problems or at least reducing his actual value

Obviously the downside here is bad -- you don't want to be stuck paying a guy millions of dollars not to produce. But I think it's fair to say that the Twins determined that the upside outweighs the downside. The Twins get cost certainty, they ensure that Span will be affordable for the next six years, through his age 31 season. If they want to cut payroll in the future, it's very likely that this contract will be extremely tradeable -- teams would love to snap up a CF in-or-near his prime on a team-friendly contract.

Instead of looking at this as the Twins having locked Span up, it's better to see it as having him locked in. But how much money did they just save, over what would have happened if they'd gone year to year?

Assuming Span is a 3.3 WAR player and standard 40%/60%/80% arbitration and $3.5M/win, his arbitration years and first year of free agency would have looked like this:

$4.6M
$6.9M
$9.2M
$11.5M

Or, if he keeps putting up 4 WAR seasons:

$5.6M
$8.4M
$11.2M
$14M

So the Twins saved themselves somewhere between $9M and $16M over 2012-2015, not taking economic recovery or salary inflation into account. Whether you think that amount of money is worth taking on the risk of the longterm contract is a judgement call, and obviously the Twins' front office thought it was worth it.

Me? I think this is an even better deal than the Blackburn contract, and I'm glad to see the Twins locking in their players at affordable salaries for years to come. This is yet another sign that the team expects to contend for the foreseeable future; they're using their assurance of steadier revenue for good rather than simply lining their pockets; they're taking advantage of the economic climate to get good deals and lock in a lower cost per win than normal.

But perhaps most of all, Denard Span will be a Twin for at least 5 more years. I think it's time to make my "Span Fan" t-shirts that I've been thinking about for a while.

Metrodome is better......

2010-03-13T00:00:00-08:00

Just kidding. For those who don't know, I went on a tour/open house of target field last night. To say the least, it was awesome. Everything appeared to be complete, and that joint is pretty fancy. Here are some pictures I took. I don't remember where each one was taken, but I'll try to "narrate".

[caption id="attachment_998" align="aligncenter" width="225" caption="View from behind the plate. I could get used to watching games from here."][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1003" align="aligncenter" width="768" caption="Pretty sweet scoreboard"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1004" align="aligncenter" width="1024" caption="Clubhouse"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1013" align="aligncenter" width="1024" caption="Inside of a suite. Not too shabby"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1014" align="aligncenter" width="1024" caption="One of the club rooms"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1017" align="aligncenter" width="1024" caption="People camping out for tickets"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1018" align="aligncenter" width="768" caption="Kirby!"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1019" align="aligncenter" width="1024" caption="View from the pressbox"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1020" align="aligncenter" width="1024" caption="Inside the pressbox"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1023" align="aligncenter" width="768" caption="This is where the bat Killebrew used to hit #573 will go. When they find it. "][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1024" align="aligncenter" width="1024" caption="Minneapolis skyline"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1025" align="aligncenter" width="1024" caption="One of the many bars in Taget Field. Ballpark tavern I believe."][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1026" align="aligncenter" width="1024" caption="View from the party deck. PARTY!"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1027" align="aligncenter" width="768" caption="Back to the Future? No. Fire pit on the party deck"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1028" align="aligncenter" width="1024" caption="Party deck. Backwards"][/caption]

Not a bad way to watch a ballgame. Not a whole lot of narration, so just drink it in folks. Outdoor baseball in a month.

Target Field Open House

2010-03-12T00:00:00-08:00

So I somehow managed to finagle passes to the "Champions Club Open House" at Target Field tonight, which is pretty badass. So I will be attending with my trusty iPhone camera taking pictures of all the cool things I see, and putting a post together later this weekend. I'm not sure what parts of the stadium I will have access to, I'm assuming the clubhouse and field will be off limits, which is lame. If anyone would like to see specific things/parts of the stadium, please let me know in the comments section sometime today. I will post some updates via twitter throughout the evening, but will most likely save all pictures for post tomorrow.

Although, if there is free beer I rescind all promises because I may get drunk.

Overreacting to the Nathan injury, sending Gutierrez to the bullpen

2010-03-12T00:00:00-08:00

The Twins are obviously scrambling for ideas in the wake of Nathan's injury, desperate to find a guy they can call their "closer" in 2010. One of those ideas, apparently, is to move Carlos Gutierrez back from the rotation to the bullpen.

"This might change our thinking," said Jim Rantz, the Twins director of minor leagues. "For now, he's a starter. We might have to revisit that."

Gutierrez was drafted in the first round, and was a closer in college; however, the main reason he was a closer in college was because he had had Tommy John surgery and they were limiting his innings. I think it's likely that the Twins wouldn't have drafted him so high if they thought he was just a reliever.

So it made perfect sense to make him a starter and see if he could stick; he has a worm-killing sinker, but needs to develop a secondary pitch (or two) to really have a legitimate shot. He shouldn't have been on the Major League radar for this season; 2011 at the earliest.

But now, the Twins are letting their trepidations about 2010 interfere with their plans for the future. That's a serious problem.

It was more than possible that Gutierrez eventually returned to the bullpen -- in fact, it was likely. One possible reason they have him starting in the first place is just to let him face more batters. But it's important to let a player's performance dictate whether his role changes, especially at this stage in his development.

The Mets make mistakes like rushing their prospects -- and it wrecked Gomez and Guerra before we ever got our hands on them. The Twins should avoid those same mistakes. I mean, if there's one thing we can all agree on, it's that the Twins should not try to emulate the Mets.

I'm probably overreacting to this news. But I think about trends a lot -- I've been encouraged by the trend that the Twins seem to be targeting high-upside talent more than they had in the past -- and this seems like something we should keep an eye on.

Souhan wants to trade Mauer? He's not COMPLETELY crazy.

2010-03-11T00:00:00-08:00

Jim Souhan is renowned in these parts for making coherent arguments about baseball, cutting metaphors about life and food, and truly understanding the ins and outs of this game called baseball. He's at it again today, wondering if the Twins should trade Joe Mauer.

A trade could yield a closer to replace Joe Nathan and would protect the franchise in the future from having one player on their roster consuming 20 to 25 percent of their payroll, a formula that rarely works in baseball.

This is mind-bogglingly dumb, of course, and Rob Neyer is quick to tell us why:

You know what's an even better idea: Not targeting a reliever when trading your single most valuable commodity. Trading for a reliever would be a terribly short-sighted move, designed to net an extra two or three wins in one season (granted, two or three wins might make a difference this season). Trading Mauer, if it simply must be done, should be designed to net the Twins twice that, at the very least.

The disposition of this situation will go a long way toward determining the future of this franchise. Signing Mauer would be good. Trading Mauer for a scad of talented young players could be good. Trading Mauer for a reliever might set the franchise back five years.

But let's assume that Bill Smith is smarter than Souhan, and wasn't planning on trading the best player in baseball for a relief pitcher. Can we reasonably assume, though, that he's smart enough to get more than two draft picks' worth of value in a trade?

Don't forget about the Garza/Bartlett for Young trade, which has looked pretty bad so far. Perhaps the better comparison, though, is the Santana trade,* which has also looked awful.

* It's kind of remarkable, actually, that the Twins had the best pitcher in the league and were essentially forced to trade him -- and then, just two years later, they have the best player in the league and may well be forced to trade him too.

I wouldn't be too confident in Smith's ability to land any mega-prospects in return for Mauer; the same problem that cropped up in the Santana negotations could crop up here too: namely, teams will be unwilling to give up much in a trade* because they also want to spend a huge sum on a long-term contract for Mauer.

* Is it just me or does this scenario only seem to happen to the Twins? When other teams are trying to unload a star in a rent-a-player type deal, they actually get prospects in return as opposed to having to thank a richer team for giving their best player some money and taking him off their hands for nothing.

Obviously, the best thing for the Twins would be to sign him to a team-friendly contract ... but that's unlikely. Given Smith's trade-making ability, it'd probably be best to just wait out this season and take the draft picks. But what if they did sign him?

If the Twins signed Mauer to a deal worth $25 million a year -- which might be what it takes -- what might they have to pay to keep Morneau, who was considered the more valuable player until last season?

Okay, first of all, "considered more valuable by whom?" Morneau only beat Mauer for the 2006 MVP because writers like Souhan don't understand that the only reason Morneau's RBI totals were so lofty was because Mauer was always on base in front of him. I don't need to go over this argument again, I hope, but the point is this: Mauer is more valuable than Morneau, and everybody knows it.

Secondly, Morneau is already under contract through 2013. He'll be 33 years old the next time he's on the market. It's really not worth thinking about right now, since it's a few years away, but have you seen what's happened to the market for sluggardly sluggers who are past their prime? Let me give you a hint: Morneau probably won't be signing a Mauer-sized deal when he's 33 years old in 2014.

Plus, everyone's making a bunch of noise about Mauer's $25M salary taking up too large a percentage of the team's payroll. But the Twins have been contending for a decade with payrolls of $60M -- is it unrealistic to think that they could raise the payroll to $90M or so (which they've already done), pay Mauer his huge salary, and continue to contend?* It's not the ideal model, probably, but the Twins have shown that they can build a 25-man roster for $60M and contend; wouldn't you expect them to be able to build a 24-man roster for $60M, add the best player in the game, and still be able to contend?

* I'm using the word "contend" here, because I think it's accurate. If the Twins have such a huge chunk of their payroll tied up in Mauer, and he's healthy, I believe they'll be a contender in basically every year of Mauer's contract. But if he gets hurt or becomes ineffective, this all goes out the window. The Twins are basically screwed -- and that's a gigantic risk for a team that simply can't afford to make big mistakes.

It's a tough decision, another one for Bill Smith, who's had plenty of these franchise-altering decisions to make in his brief tenure at the top of the Twins. On the one hand, do you take the biggest PR hit any team could possibly suffer, while simultaneously taking a huge step back for the current season (when you're moving into a new taxpayer-funded stadium, no less), by trading your homegrown superstar? Or, on the other, do you sign him to a deal you can't afford, for more years than you're comfortable with, and risk having to explain to those same fans 8 years from now that the payroll is basically sunk because we're paying $25M for an injured 3B/1B who doesn't hit home runs? Or do you go for broke now, let him go to free agency at the end of the year, and move on without him, letting the payroll peak in 2010 and dwindle afterwards once The Hope Named Mauer has left the state?

It's easy for us, as fans. We're going to be fans either way, and the only thing that's really at risk is our enjoyment during September and October -- that's not a lot at risk. For Smith, it's his reputation, his career, his life that hinges on this decision, and on others like it. It's not an easy choice, or an obvious choice.

But he kind of has to get it right.

Holy crap, Posnanski linked to us!

2010-03-11T00:00:00-08:00

You know what they say about publicity, right? That any publicity is good publicity -- I thought, perhaps, that I should remind you about that so we're clear on what I meant. Well, when Posnanski links to you, that's some pretty serious publicity.

The problem, though, is the context of that link. He did it in a post called "HireGardy.com" in which he lumps us in with a bunch of crazed anti-Gardenhire internet people. He defends Gardy, who he likes as a manager, against the attacks of bloggers and commenters around the world. And he calls us the "informal" anti-Gardy blog, which is funny given that of the other two sites he points to, one is hosted on blogspot and the other is just a one-page site that complains about Gardenhire but has no other content or usefulness. I guess that means he didn't spend much time reading.

My dad has frequently told me that I should change the name of the blog -- that people are turned off when they hear that the site is called "Fire Gardy," and perhaps don't even visit (thus discovering that we don't actually want Gardy to be fired). He also made the valid point that Gardy will someday not be the manager any more, thus making the website pointless. Those are all good points, of course, but I think the name has a nice ring to it.

I actually think Gardy is a good manager -- in the past I've tried to quantify the contributions a manager makes and found that Gardy is consistently one of the top managers. It seems like every year, he's voted 2nd or 3rd in the AL Manager of the Year voting, and I've never had reason to quibble with the selection.

Of course, I have a bunch of reasons why I don't like the things Gardy does -- the name doesn't exist solely because it sounds good. For a team that's consistently one of the youngest in the league, he has far too much of a preference for veteran players (despite talent). The players in whom he places his undying trust -- like when he says Punto needs his at bats because he'll bat with the game on the line a lot and he needs to be ready for it -- well, let's just say they're not the players I would choose to trust. I think I'd handle the bullpen differently, with less of an emphasis on predefined roles and faith in the magic of the later innings ... but I suppose you can't really argue with his results.

He rips apart one comment, taking it down point-by-point; that comment basically touched on every weak argument people have against Gardy, which is presumably why Posnanski picked it.

I don’t mean to pick on one comment — the point is we get a LOT of seemingly angry anti-Gardy stuff like that around here. And a lot of it just seems petty to me. Look, I think he’s a great manager. A lot of people think he’s a fraud. That’s fine. I can point to five division champions. A lot of people can point to his weak division and playoff failure. That’s fine. I can point to a team that has consistently won and players who consistently play well for him as the season goes along. A lot of people can point to Gardy’s bizarre individual decisions and they would rather credit other people for the Twins’ success. That’s fine too.

And yes, I think it's funny that people seem to go to Posnanski to complain about Gardenhire. Maybe it's because he likes Gardy, and is one of the few people to admit that on the internet. Maybe it's because he's just the biggest person to admit it on the internet.

I wish Gardy were better at dealing with young players -- it happens to be my opinion that he destroyed Alexi Casilla and would have destroyed Carlos Gomez if he hadn't been traded. I wish he cared more about "getting outs" than "eating innings" ... perhaps saving us from watching guys like Carlos Silva, Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, and Livan Hernandez go out and lose baseball games. I wish he at least gave the impression that he's thought through how he wants to handle a pitching staff, rather than just leaning against the conventional wisdom -- after all, conventional wisdom isn't going to help you win when you have fewer resources than your competitors. You have to do something new!

But without a doubt, something Gardy does is working. And it's working great. And anyway, if Gardy did everything the way I would, then what would I hve to write about? My favorite thing about Gardy -- aside from, you know, all the winning -- is that he's a constant, undying source of fun things to write about.

Nathan tears his UCL

2010-03-09T00:00:00-08:00

Well, it looks like Nathan's injury is much worse than we'd hoped. FunBobby was out of town this weekend, and so he didn't hear about the injury when it happened; he asked me for an update, which looked like this:

He came in in the 3rd inning, struck out the first batter, then walked the next two and was taken out with right elbow soreness. He's gone back to MN to get an MRI.

One theory is that this is just a normal setback after his offseason surgery to break up scar tissue in that elbow. Another is that it's a more severe injury. There's no real information about it, but it's definitely a reason to worry.

My optimism was invalid, though, now that we've learned that Nathan actually has a torn UCL, which is the very same ligament that needs to be repaired in Tommy John surgery.

They're not certain if it's a full tear or a partial tear -- Gardenhire called it "significant" -- and Gardenhire says it's the sort of thing you can't tell until you get in and do surgery. Tommy John surgery.

Apparently, they're saying it's "totally Nathan's decision" as to whether to have surgery or not. The plan, for now, is to try to avoid surgery:

While surgery certainly looks to be imminent, Nathan will take two weeks to let the swelling in the area subside. He'll work with the trainers to strengthen the muscles around the elbow. And then he will try to pitch. He's prepared to pitch in pain - given the huge expectations placed on the 2010 Twins - and is prepared to tests the limits of his tolerance level.

Personally, I'd be shocked if he's able to pitch with a torn UCL ... and perhaps more shocked if the Twins even let him. The Twins famously prefer to let pitchers do several months rest & rehab prior to doing the surgery that was obviously necessary from the start (see Crain, Neshek, Liriano, Bonser) ... and that looks like what's going to happen here. I kind of expect them to string us along until June, when they finally have the surgery they should be having now, delaying Nathan's eventual return to the second half of 2011, at which point he still won't even be full strength. Nathan should have the surgery now, and Nathan won't be part of it.

Or at least, that's my opinion. I know the Twins don't share it. But that raises the question about what the Twins should do for a closer this year. Here are the options, as I see them:

Blindly hope Nathan is okay
Neshek
Rauch
Crain
Mijares
Slama or Delaney
Someone else from the minors
A new acquisition
Closer by committee

Alright ... so I'm guessing most teams who lose an elite closer like Nathan don't have so many internal options to choose from,* so the Twins probably aren't totally screwed here.

* It's worth noting that there aren't very many teams with an elite closer like Nathan, and that they are probably really deep. The Yankees and Red Sox probably do have similar bullpen depth ... only the Royals have a closer of Nathan's caliber without a bunch of bullpen arms behind him. Maybe the Mets. So maybe I'm wrong to make that statement.

I think Mijares is out, given that Gardy doesn't trust him and he's a lefty, which will be more useful in a non-closer role. I don't think much of Crain at the moment, and I don't think Gardy does either.

If it were me, I'd go with the committee. La Velle disagrees:

I don't think the Twins will go with a closer-by-committee. They had all kinds of trouble in 2008 when they tried a set-up man by committee, and Gardenhire regretted doing that. We'll be on the watch for any signals that point to whomever fills that role.

And that's a good point, though it explains more why the Twins won't than why they shouldn't.

So I don't know what the Twins are going to do. We'll keep you posted on the news as we know more. But I don't believe this sinks the Twins' playoff hopes; regardless of how great Nathan is, the Twins have a deep bullpen, some good arms, and even the best relievers don't make a huge difference. Given the same innings and leverage, Nathan isn't much more valuable than a healthy Neshek, for example.

A look at Nick Blackburn's new contract

2010-03-07T00:00:00-08:00

Apparently all this talk of a Mauer contract has got Bill Smith's negotiative juices flowing.

According to a tweet from Joe C:

The #Twins have signed Nick Blackburn to a four-year, $14 million contract. The deal includes an $8 mil club option for 2014.

At the moment, that's all the details I have on his deal. But let's take a look at it, shall we?

He has two years of service time, which means he's currently entering his third and final pre-arbitration year. Thus, this 4-year deal buys him out through all three arbitration years, plus an option for his first year in free agency.

Normally, arbitration salaries are set at 40%/60%/80% of your free agent value in each year. Blackburn produced 2.5 WAR in 2008, and 3.0 WAR in 2009 (and is currently projected for 2.5 WAR in 2010). If we set his true talent level at 2.5 WAR, this four year contract should look something like this:

$1M (typical value for final pre-arbitration year, this could go up or down by a few hundred K)
$3.5M (2.5 WAR x 40% == 1 WAR ... free agent salaries are $3.5M/win this winter)
$5.25M (2.5 WAR x 60% == 1.5 WAR at $3.5M/win)
$7M (2.5 WAR x 80% == 2 WAR at $3.5M/win)
$8M team option (2.5 WAR at $3.5M/win is $8.75M)

As you probably noticed, these values add up to more than $14M. Normally, players give a discount for the security of a long-term contract. This deal is about 83% of what Blackburn could have expected if he'd gone year-to-year (and performed as well as he has the last two years every single time). That seems like a larger-than-normal discount, which means the Twins did a good job at the negotiating table (even the option is discounted from his expected value).

It's possible that the Twins have managed to value wins at an even lower rate than this discounted winter shows ... the value of this contract makes sense at about $3.2M/win.

So the Twins negotiated themselves a good, team-friendly contract here. Maybe all that practice trying to deal with Mauer has been good for them. But is the value of the contract really the most important consideration here?

For starters, they've now locked up perhaps their most consistent starting pitcher for four seasons; Blackburn has also shown himself capable of stepping up in big games (which can't be measured, but teams and teammates and managers and fans all love those guys). Blackburn is the team's only groundball pitcher, during an offseason in which they've re-upped on infield defense with the addition of Hardy & Hudson. If they expect to make a commitment to Hardy, it makes sense to lock up Blackburn. Plus, this will lend some consistency to the starting rotation. They've got a solid, consistent starter for his age 28-31 seasons, which are often a pitcher's best.

Of course, there are downsides -- Blackburn could get hurt or be ineffective. He hasn't shown much risk of injury, but that could happen at any time for a pitcher. Plus, it blocks the pipeline of pitching talent. With both Baker and Blackburn signed to long-term deals, the space in the rotation for younger (perhaps more talented) pitchers is pretty thin; especially until Baker and Blackburn are considered "veteran presences," thus removing the need to sign a guy like Pavano (or Livan Hernandez, or Ramon Ortiz, or whatever other guy they feel will give them a 5.95 ERA every 5 days).

I think you can't be too worried about injuries in this situation. They could happen, but if you go by that logic you'd never sign anyone. And if a group of young pitchers starts knocking hard on the door and Blackburn seems like he should be the odd man out, plenty of teams are looking for consistent workhorses who are groundball machines, excel in big moments, and are signed to team-friendly deals -- it shouldn't be hard to find a taker in a trade and get something back for Blackburn. Especially if he pitches well, besting his 2.5 WAR valuation.

I didn't really expect to like a long-term deal for Nick Blackburn, but I do. This was a good move for the Twins, and hopefully is an indication of the kind of successful negotiations they can execute, when it comes to the Mauer deal.

Killebrew: Cuddyer is capable of hitting a lot more homers

2010-03-06T00:00:00-08:00

Harmon Killebrew has remained interested and somewhat active with the Twins over the years,* and recently John Shipley asked him about young power hitters in baseball.

* And that seems to be increasing in recent years, though part of that could just be due to more reporting during the winter and spring thanks in large part to the internet, and also to the ever-increasing demand for Twins-related information by the team's excellent fanbase.

He showed his age, I think, by bringing up Michael Cuddyer -- who's not young -- but his thoughts were interesting.

"Now," Killebrew continued, "the real secret in this game, with hitting, is to be consistent. Can you come back and have a better year than you did the year before? That's the tough part of the game. I hope Michael is still healthy. I know he can. Physically, he's capable of hitting a lot more than he did last year."

As everybody knows, Cuddyer put together a great season in 2009, putting up a career high 32 home runs. If anything, Cuddyer has seemingly shown himself not to be particularly consistent, as the perception is that he put together a pair of disappointing seasons in between his two great ones,* but Killebrew's theory that Cuddyer is "capable" of hitting a lot more homers than he did last year warrants further investigation.

* He broke out in 2006 with a 3.1 WAR season, and 2009 was highly regarded but worth just 2.0 WAR. His 2007 was actually better, worth 2.1 WAR, though a big part of that was probably positional; in 2009, he filled in for Morneau at 1B for a month, which brought down his positional adjustment and counteracted some of the awesome work he did with the bat. He produced a career high 23.2 batting runs in 2009, vs 22.6 in 2006 and 10.5 in 2007. His 2008 was mostly a throwaway year, lost to injury.

Of Cuddyer's 32 homers in 2009, 13 of them were "no doubt," according to Hit Tracker -- tied for 3th in the AL, behind Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera, and Carlos Pena. And that was my impression as well: when Cuddyer connected with a ball, it went a mile. 11 of his homers were "plenty," which means he got enough of them to get it out of basically any park; these are the standard home runs. Just 8 of his homers were "just enough,"* or balls that barely cleared the fence.

* Compare that to Mauer, whose 11 "just enough" shots were good for 5th in the AL.

But hitting "just enough" homers is not a criticism -- you basically need to hit a bunch of them in order to rack up a big HR total. Prince Fielder had 16 of them, Albert Pujols and Mark Reynolds had 14, Kevin Youkilis had 13, Kendry Morales had 12, Alex Rodriguez had 11 ... these are all pretty big home run hitters.

What Cuddyer needs to do is put more balls in the air, to give himself a better chance of a handful or two of them carrying just over the fence. If he can do that, while continuing to make the good solid contact he made in 2009, Killebrew could very well be right about his ability to hit more homers. I just don't know what he means by "a lot more." It could be similar to what he means by "young," which apparently includes guys who are 31 years old.

Plus, with the addition of Jim Thome and JJ Hardy to the lineup as well as the potential for an emergence by Delmon Young, Cuddyer could see even more protection than he's been accustomed to. That can only help.

One final note

in his first time in the cage, Cuddyer laid his bunts down, then immediately drilled a hard liner to center. Thome, with 564 homers in a 19-year major league career, looked up and said, "How do you do that?"

Dear Jim Thome: you don't care! If Gardy's plan for you as a pinch hitter involves any bunting whatsoever, that's his fault. Not yours. Just focus on what's made you a potential (probable?) hall of famer: smashing the crap out of the ball.

Perception, Reality, and the Twins

2010-03-04T00:00:00-08:00

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs, who has historically been a big Twins-hater, loves what the team has done this offseason. He's as bullish as we are about the additions of Hardy, Hudson, and Thome, likes the Pavano deal, and thinks good seasons from Delmon Young and Francisco Liriano are within reason. I bring this up, because he has no idea what Vegas is thinking.

Apparently, Vegas thinks that people with money hate the Twins. If there’s one over/under that stands out like a sore thumb, it’s Minnesota at 82 wins. 82 wins – the same as the White Sox, one win more than the Tigers, tied for the seventh best record in the American League. Really? Seriously?

In addition to listing the Twins' additions, he lists the Tigers' subtractions, and is confused as to why Vegas would have both teams dropping by the same number of wins.

CHONE has the Twins as an 86 win team, and there’s certainly upside beyond the expected performances of guys like Young, Liriano, and Hardy. My back of the envelope calculations have them at something more like 87 or 88 wins.

I don't have a projection system of my own,* so I generally don't like to pull numbers out of my ass ... but if I were going to do just that I'd say 87-91 wins sounds about right.

* Maybe I should make my own projection system, though. That could be a really fun project.

That said, Vegas sure isn't alone in projecting a sour season for the Twins. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system* projects the Twins to "win" the division with 83 wins, just one more than Vegas projects.

* Yes, this is the same projection system that thought Matt "God" Wieters would bat .850 in his rookie year, be immediately elected to the Hall of Fame, and then rise into heaven on a cloud of virgins. So take from it what you will.

Perhaps this interview with Howard Norsetter, specifically when he's talking about Dutch pitching prospect Tim Stuifbergen, will shed some light on the divergence of perception and reality surrounding the Twins.

This year, some of his control numbers were other-worldly. One game, he threw his fastball 41 times -- 39 of them were strikes. He didn't even make the top 30 lists for some pundits, which is weird.

Part of the problem is that he is an international player without a draft round associated to him, or a high bonus pedigree. At the World Junior Championships in Cuba a few years back, he was named the Most Valuable Pitcher. He pitched successfully against the Cuban senior team when he was 17.

That's a salient point, and one that gets to the heart of the point. Without a way to accurately measure how good these young players are, analysts have to fall back to indirect measurements, like draft round and signing bonus. Since the Twins rarely even try to compete in that arena, it leaves people wondering "how in the world can the Twins compete when they have so few players we consider important?"

I personally don't think that's the whole reason, especially when it comes to PECOTA,* but it stands to reason that it could be part of it. And remember, we're talking about Vegas here -- which bases their picks not on what they think about baseball, but on what they think most people think about baseball.

* I've said it before, but I remain convinced that Baseball Prospectus' roots on the south side of Chicago and ongoing loving relationship with the White Sox cloud its views of the AL Central, and the Twins in particular.

When I was younger, I used to think the national analysts were actively "against" the Twins, which in retrospect just seems foolish. It seems to me now that for the Twins, perception and reality are simply widely divergent; everyone's opinions are honest and well-formed, but are simply based on information that doesn't apply, or ignores important data that does. So if you were a gambling man -- and for the record, I'm not -- you may well be wise to take advantage of this perception gap and take the "over."

Oh, and one more thing: if you were looking for a new young player to be excited about, Stuifbergen just may be the one. If only because of this:

The first words out of his mouth when he walked off the mound in Holland's historic win against the Dominican Republic in the WBC last year were "I'm gonna take Papi off my fantasy team -- he can't hit an inside fastball." And at the World Cup in Europe last year he was outstanding.

Oh yeah. I'm a fan of this guy already.

The Twins and International Talent

2010-03-03T00:00:00-08:00

There's an interview with Howard Norsetter, the Twins' International Scouting coordinator, available right now, and I recommend that everyone read it. There are some really interesting things in there, though you'll have to take what Norsetter says with a grain of salt -- clearly he's more on the "scouting" side than the "analysis" side of the game, which isn't a problem in and of itself. The thing I'd be wary about is that he seems extremely optimistic about every player he's asked about. Still, it's a good read.

But beyond individual players, the things that stood out for me were his ideas on the international version of the business of baseball, and the Twins' approach to it.

There is also another dynamic at work; the teams that spend the most get the most attention from the agents. I know a few teams that spent a lot of money in Latin America the last couple of years essentially just to broadcast to Buscones that they are in the market and will spend money like the big boys. The hope is that the Buscones start delivering the better prospects to team's doorstep.

It seems to me that those teams run the risk of sending a different signal: "we're willing to spend money, and it doesn't have to be the best players." So sure, the buscones will bring you someone, but they're still bringing their best players to the big teams who've shown they're at least trying to only spend money on talent. They're bringing middling guys to you and calling them good so you'll waste your money.

There are agents in Asia who feel like the Twins aren't worthy of their attention because we haven't signed the most expensive players. They don't even bother trying to sell their players to us. Which is a bit short sighted because we have shown that if we think a player is worth the money, we will spend the money to get the player. Sometimes an agent will get offended if you don't think a player is worth the money they are looking for. If they know that you are willing to spend money in general, they don't get as offended-they will still come back to you with their next guy. If they don't think you are ever going to be a player in the market, they won't waste their time.

Stories like this one are another big reason the system seems so broken. The buscones and amateur agents hold too much power over the young players and over the teams. I'm against an international draft, but something needs to change. Maybe there should be an open combine where all the players can show what they've got, followed by an auction where all the teams bid on all the players. In order to level the playing field, perhaps each team is allowed to spend only a certain amount of money in total,* so if you sign a Strasburg-level talent you won't be able to afford much else that year, or something.

* I don't know if I really like that, but at least it would protect the new system from the inevitable cries of "well the Yankees would just overbid us and buy all the good players!" which, of course, is what's happening with the current system. Wait, no, the opposite of that. Not happening.

After trying to defend the Twins from an accusation that they haven't shown interest in Cuban players (and getting the interviewer to admit that by "interest" he actually meant "successfully signing Cuban amateurs to mega-deals"), Norsetter explains the Twins' fundamental interest in European players:

You mentioned earlier that you thought that the Twins didn't have much interest in Cuba: If there were to be pitcher throwing 94-96 with an 87 slider who defects from the Cuban team, we would not be able to sign him. That is why we are in the developing markets like Europe. You hope that you can get a player like Loek [Van Mil] when there isn't much interest in him, and develop him into somebody who demands a lot of interest.

As you could probably guess, I think that's brilliant. There are, at the base of things, a few ways to compete on the international markets:

Have enough money to sign the players you think are the best, after letting everyone agree on who's the best
Work harder than everyone else to find the best players in known markets, and hope to sign them before the bigger teams learn of them
Work even harder than that, to find bargain players that you think will be good but that the big-money teams wouldn't be interested in
Find an entirely new market where nobody else is scouting, and take the top talent without competition

Option #4 takes a lot of guts (what if there aren't any good players in Europe or Australia this year?), and you'll only have a temporary advantage in each region. If Loek Van Mil and Max Kepler quickly become good players, other teams are going to flood Europe with scouts and essentially drive the Twins out. Which presumably means they're going to have to find another untapped source of talent without competition, which will again be a gutsy move (who knows how good the baseball players are in Africa, or Iraq?). But it very well may be the right move.

The current major league roster offers plenty of reason to hope for 2010, but more and more, it seems like the Twins are setting themselves up with a strong pipeline of high-octane talent for the future. The development of a strong international scouting and development program is instrumental, and right now the Twins are the biggest players in under-developed markets like Europe and Australia.

Mike Lowell?

2010-03-01T00:00:00-08:00

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggeststhat the Red Sox somehow move Mike Lowell to the Twins. Even if the Sox pick up the lion's share of the $12 million Lowell is owed for 2010, I don't see this happening.

One of our top prospects, Danny Valencia, plays third, so why should we give up prospect to get Lowell for part of a season? If our production from whoever plays third this year is Punto-esque (which is possible since Punto will likely be getting a lot of starts at the hot corner), wouldn't you rather they give Valencia a chance than trade for Lowell? I like Mike Lowell, but I don't think its the right move. I think the rest of our lineup is good enough where we can afford to have a black hole at the bottom of the order. It would be nice if Punto (or Harris) could give us something close to league average numbers, but I'm not holding my breath.

Not really a whole lot to discuss on this topic, but I thought I'd point it out as we gear up for the season and I shake off the blogging rust.

It's been a while

2010-02-26T00:00:00-08:00

Since we haven't posted anything in two weeks, I wanted to make sure everyone knows we still exist. Here's a rundown of things that have happened in Twins-land over the past few weeks.

Pitchers and Catchers reported. Whoo hoo!! Baseball has started. Mijares was, of course, late. He got held up at security because he had hair gel that wasn't allowed by what TSA incarnation he was up against. The good news is he is in camp, not in the best shape, but what did everyone expect? He doesn't seem like the kind of guy who has any plans to slim down.
Joe Mauer still doesn't have a contract, but he did show up with a kickass beard.
Justin Morneau plans to "take it easy" this spring. His hope is to not break down in September. Let's hope it works. I trust him, I think he knows what he has to do to keep himself healthy all season.
According to Denard Span's twitter feed, Hudson is a great clubhouse presence. He got Span into the weight room bright and early the other day. Good to know he already is exerting himself as a team leader.
Spring training is shaping up to only have a few position battles. Third base is the big one. The two candidates are Harris and Punto. Both will make the team, its just a matter of who Gardy and co. want to start.
The final bench spot is also up in the air. Will it be the out of options Alexi Casilla? Or a backup centerfielder? I vote for an additional CF. Does Gardy think Span won't need any days off? Or does he think Punto can spell him every once in a while? I cringe at the thought of an outfield defense consisting of Young, Punto and Cuddyer.
Pitching wise there are many more questions. Who is the fifth starter? I think we can all agree that Baker, Slowey, Pavano, and Blackburn are guaranteed spots. So it comes down to Liriano, Duensing, and Perkins for the final spot. Unless someone like Manship or Swarzak really steps up this spring and takes the final spot.
I am assuming that Condrey is all but guaranteed a spot in the bullpen, so there aren't too many questions there.
Did I miss anything?

Nick Punto Day

2010-02-12T00:00:00-08:00

So apparently today is Nick Punto day in the Twins blogosphere. As most of you know, I am not a fan of Lil' Nicky Punto. Mainly because I don't like baseball players who aren't good at baseball. Actually that's the only reason I don't like him. So here is my rambling rant, that is bound to piss people off because they like Punto for some idiotic reason.

I'm sure Punto is a very nice guy, but why in the hell does everyone love him so much? He tries hard. So what. So do a lot of people. It doesn't mean we should cheer for them This isn't little league where everyone gets a trophy. He is an adequate defender at 3 infield positions. So what? It doesn't mean I should be cheering for him. I think the biggest problem is Gardy's inability to gauge his actual value. Which is that of a utility infielder. Not a starter on a contender.

So is this Nick Punto obsession based in his halfway decent 2006 season (which wasn't really all that good when you factor in he was playing third base) where he was one of the sparkplugs to a team that won the division on the last day of the season? If it is that is BS. Not only has be done very little to help the team since then, I would argue that he has had two seasons that really hurt the team. Everyone has bemoaned our general badness at the infield positions lately. If we simple had league average, or even replacement level production instead of the stinkers Punto put up in 07 and 09 who knows what might have happened. He was a complete black hole offensively, a free out if you will. There is no level of defense that would make Puno 07 or Punto 09 an acceptable major leaguer. I understand the importance of defense, but I also understand that it is half the game.

So can someone explain to me why people love Punto so much? Are there several no talent players who try hard that have a irrational fanbase? Overall I think he is a useful player to have on the team, shouldn't be starting nor should he be making 4 million dollars a year. I also don't get why we have him AND Tolbert. Seems like overkill.

Roster update 2/9/10

2010-02-09T00:00:00-08:00

The Twins signed Jacque Jonesto a minor league deal today. They also cut ties with Jason Pridie, to make room on the 40 man for Orlando Hudson. This is an odd move since Pridie projected to make the team as a backup OF, and Jones hasn't played in the majors since 08. Oh well, no big loss. Speedy outfielders who can't hit are pretty easy to find on the scrap heap, so I'm sure the Twins will find some cheap player who can fill in at all 3 OF spots and pinch run occasionally.

Does anyone have Jason Tyner's number?

We might be back to Wild Bill

2010-02-05T00:00:00-08:00

Lately I've been feeling optimistic about the upcoming season, to the point of worrying that I'm over-optimistic. But I sure don't feel like I'm exaggerating Bill Smith's job this offseason.

So when someone like Dave Cameron raves about the offseason and the team in general -- calling them clearly the class of the division with a chance at a superb rotation -- it makes me a little less concerned about how excited I am, and how impressed I am with Smith.

With Hudson, Hardy, and Thome, the Twins have improved their offense significantly. By retaining Pavano and watching Francisco Liriano return to form in winter ball, their pitching rotation has the chance to be among the best in baseball. Their bullpen is still good, anchored by a relief ace and some quality arms in front of him.

It’s hard to imagine the Twins could have had a better winter. They used this off-season to upgrade the team, and while the roster isn’t perfect, they are clearly the class of the AL Central at this point. Adding Hudson is just the cherry on top of what was already a very good winter.

Wow. I think I'm going to have to go back to calling him Wild Bill.

Orlando Hudson

2010-02-05T00:00:00-08:00

The Twins made a big splash yesterday by signing their second ex-Dodger, Orlando Hudson. This is excellent news because Hudson fills two needs. A secondbaseman and a #2 hitter. Last season with the Dodgers Hudson hit .283/.357/.415, that will look pretty damn good between Span and Mauer. Defensively, Hudson has lost a step or two lately, but that didn't stop him from winning a gold glove in 2009. He had a pretty bad UZR/150 number (-3.7), but he must be flashy enough that people think he deserved one. Regardless, I think he will be adequate defensively, especially if Punto is covering some extra ground at third.

Last season Hudson was paid $3.4 million, but according to fangraphs he was worth a cool $13 million. He was worth 2.9 wins above replacement in 2009, nothing to sneeze at.

For $5 million dollars and one year, I think this is an excellent signing. The biggest question has to be what happens to Punto? There is no way Gardy doesn't start him, and I guess I don't have a huge problem with him starting at third. Maybe platooning with Harris, who has historically hit well against lefties. I see the batting order working out like this Span-CF Hudson- 2B Mauer-C Morneau-1B Cuddyer- RF Kubel-DH Hardy- SS Young- LF Punto/Harris- 3B

That's a pretty solid lineup. Throwing in Thome every once in a while won't be taking a step backwards, like it usually is when you rest a starter.

So the way I see it, the Twins payroll is now around 95 or 96 million. I'm glad the Pohlad family wasn't just blowing hot air when they said payroll would increase with the opening of Target Field. Everyone get excited, spring training is just around the corner.

The Luck of the Liriano

2010-02-02T00:00:00-08:00

In the comments on yesterday's post about Liriano, we had a pretty good discussion that's worth reading through. There were a couple posts, by semi-frequent commenter Ragstoriches, that stuck out from the flow of the conversation and raise an issue that I don't think I can do justice to in a comment. So I'm promoting it to a full-blown post, is what I'm doing.

He opened with this:

Liriano’s stuff may be better this winter, but Frankie’s biggest problem of late isn’t his stuff, it’s that he’s a friggin head case. He absolutely cannot deal with adversity – he can throw 6 innings of no-hit ball but a walk and a blooper later he’s in complete meltdown mode, and before you can blink he’s given up 5 or 6 runs.

And after the rest of the conversation had taken place, he closed with this:

So you don’t think Frankie had a tough time getting out of jams last year? Even your stats would prove that. Why did ‘09 Frankie fail to resemble even the 2nd half of ‘08 Frankie – he had another year to recover from surgery, right?

I'm sure games like that happened, but that happens to a lot of pitchers; also, I've found that memory is a funny thing, and that it sometimes plays tricks on you. So, without further ado, it's time to peel back some layers of Liriano's statistical onion and see just how quickly it can make us cry.

Ready? I sure am.

First, a baseline "this is not a jam" situation (leading off an inning). The first batter of the game had an .863 OPS with a .389 BABIP; the first batter of the inning overall had an .897 OPS with a .337 BABIP. So ... not good, but also very unlucky.

His performance was worse than that in every base/out situation except "men on first and second" (when he had a .773 OPS with a .308 BABIP), and "a man on third and 2 outs" (when he had an .830 OPS and a .429 BABIP).

Some notable "in a jam" situations:

RISP: .922 OPS, .347 BABIP
Men on: .945 OPS, .369 BABIP
Man on third: 1.117 OPS, .455 BABIP
First & third: .908 OPS, .286 BABIP
2nd & 3rd: 1.198 OPS, .500 BABIP
3rd, under 2 outs: 1.221 OPS, .370 BABIP
3rd, 2 outs: .830 OPS, .429 BABIP

Look at those BABIP numbers, please. For the most part, those are ludicrously high, unsustainable for any pitcher. Furthermore, in only three cases are his BABIP numbers in a "reasonable" or "predictive" range; .288 with the bases empty, .286 with men on first and third, and .308 with men on first and second. Meanwhile, in all other cases, his BABIP ranged from .321 up to an absurd .500.

Okay, so base/out situations give us one window into Liriano's failure when he got into a jam, but there's more to this story.

Let's take a look at his "clutch stats," to see if those shed any more light on what's going on here.

2 outs, RISP: .892 OPS, .359 BABIP
Late & Close: 1.277 OPS, .545 BABIP
Tie game: .800 OPS, .303 BABIP
Within 1 R: .879 OPS, .324 BABIP
Within 2 R: .866 OPS, .329 BABIP
Within 3 R: .875 OPS, .333 BABIP
Within 4 R: .856 OPS, .328 BABIP
4 R: .474 OPS, .259 BABIP

Or we could just break it down by the leverage index, and see how he did in situations of various "game-on-the-line"-itude.

High leverage: .893 OPS, .371 BABIP
Medium leverage: 1.009 OPS, .367 BABIP
Low leverage: .567 OPS, .243 BABIP

Alright. Enough. I think we're painting a pretty clear picture here.

Liriano had bad basic numbers overall in 2009, but these numbers show that for the most part what happened was that when he was "in a jam" or the game was "on the line," he got ridiculously unlucky; when it didn't matter, his luck reversed and he "mowed down the opposition" (ie, the ball found the defenders' gloves).

Much has been made of Liriano's strikeouts and walks, of his command of his fastball, of his confidence and his emotional state, of how he seemed to get tired after just a few innings, or that he couldn't adjust to the adjustments the hitters made the second and third time through the order. A lot of these things are true; especially the ones about his command, and his K/BB ratio.

Check out his peripheral stats:

2006: 10.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 6.6 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.5 K/BB
2008: 7.9 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 8.8 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 2.09 K/BB
2009: 8.0 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 9.7 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 1.88 K/BB

Obviously, every single one of those stats is trending in the wrong direction (and that's why his ERA+ has gone from 207 to 107 to 75).

It stands to reason that eventually, his luck will change and his BABIP will drop back to normal levels; his H/9 should drop back down, perhaps not all the way to 6.6, but perhaps to the 7-8 range. A 1.4 HR/9 is totally unsustainable, and that'll go back down to 1.0 or so (especially given Liriano's propensity to generate ground balls).

So even if Liriano's stuff hasn't improved, and his K/9 and BB/9 rates stay the same, and the only thing that changes is that he's not one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game, well, his numbers are going to improve quite a bit. If he doesn't get better, just less-unlucky, Liriano is an above-average pitcher.

And if the reports about his improved command, velocity, and movement prove true? Well, if you combine that with improved luck, he's still not back to 2006 but he's getting close.* And close, really, is good enough.

* I closed yesterday's post by saying that perhaps I was being wildly optimistic. After seeing just how bad his luck was in 2009, I think that was an overstatement. I'm optimistic, but there's nothing "wild" about predicting that his BABIP will decrease from its cosmic heights and bring his numbers back into line with his talent.

So no, I don't think the numbers show that Liriano had an especially tough time getting out of jams last year. I think the numbers show that he was unlucky, that any time someone made contact, the ball found a hole. I think that bad luck may, over time, have gotten into his head; have you ever gotten into a rut where you think that everything's going to go wrong for you? I have, and when it happens your confidence is destroyed; you alternate between not trying enough and trying too hard, and neither is any good. Recovering from this is hard, and a lot of it is just taking some time off and rebuilding your confidence before you get back to it. It must be nice to have an offseason.

That's why I put so much stock into quotes like this:

“[It was like], this is me,” Liriano said of the way he was throwing. “That’s the way I know how to pitch. Not worry about anything or any hitter. Just go out there and try to throw first pitch strikes and locate my fastball. I feel like I did in ‘06, I have my confidence back. My arm feels great. Physically and mentally I’m ready to go.”

and this:

“I’ve got my confidence back,” Liriano said. “This winter is the best I’ve felt.”

I don't see Liriano as being any sort of spin-master, with the ability to concoct an elaborate web of lies for our benefit. I see him more as a simple man, perhaps not fully mature, who hadn't had to face much hardship until after he'd been thrust into the public eye; and now he's stuck having to grow up in front of our eyes.

Perhaps it's naivete, but I trust that he can do it.

The Mauer Rumor Machine is Building Up Steam

2010-02-01T00:00:00-08:00

The internet, my friends, is all atwitter with excitement after Mark Rosen of WCCO broke the news that the Twins are close to a 10 year deal with Mauer.

Meanwhile, Buster Olney is reporting that the report of a preliminary agreement is not accurate, and both Jon Heyman* and Joe Christensen agree.

* What, you think he has no place reporting on the negotiations of a non-Boras client? Well, you're probably right.

"Dan Cook," whoever that is, points out that Rosen is talking to Mauer's people, while Olney and the rest are talking to Twins officials. We may not be quite as close as we all want to hope (though I'd take Cook's report with a big, rock-shaped grain of salt given his lack of reporting history).

All that said, I think it's about time to look at the Mauer situation in a little more depth, couched in what we know about free agency this offseason and the rumored frameworks of this deal.

With contracts of this length, it's practically impossible to say whether it's going to work out. It's just so much time, and anything can happen. Mauer is 26 now, but he'll be 37 when this contract ends. Will he be the best player in the game at age 37? Will he even be a catcher by then? It's literally impossible to know the answer to these questions (but it's not that difficult to guess that the answers go something like: "No," and "Maybe").

But let's just try and project what Mauer would be worth over this time period.

According to FanGraphs, since his first full season (2005), Mauer has been worth* 3.5, 6.1, 3.0, 5.8, and 8.2 WAR; in dollars: $12M, $22.4M, $12.2M, $26.2M, $36.8M.

* Remember, FanGraphs WAR takes into account that he's a catcher, but does not take into account how good he is at being a catcher. In fact, their glossary page says this about measuring catcher defense:

If you think Joe Mauer’s catching abilities and leadership are worth one win, just add one win to what we display as his win value here. Quantifying catching defense is something that we just haven’t figured out yet, and so we’re not pretending that we have. Consider it an opportunity to fill in the blanks.

And yes, I do think it's telling that they specifically mention Mauer as being more valuable than their WAR values state. For the purposes of this column, however, I am not going to inflate Mauer's value beyond what is stated on the FanGraphs page.

The problem is ... those WAR numbers don't actually tell us all that much. Is he a 3 win player like he was in 2005 and 2007? Or a 6 win player like 2006 and 2008? Or is he a legitimate superstar, 8+ win player like 2009? All these numbers come before his prime; great players tend to peak around 27-29, and the truly great players' skills diminish slowly through their early thirties. (Plus, you can't plan for good seasons and bad seasons throughout a contract; you have to value a player at his "true talent level," pay for that, and then basically hope he meets or exceeds that level in as many years of the contract as possible.)

If we put Mauer's "true talent level" at around 7 WAR, and assume that he maintains that talent through age 30 at which point he will start to decline at 0.5 WAR per season, his value would look like this over the next ten years:

7 7 7 7 6.5 6 5.5 5 4.5 4

for a total of 59.5 WAR over the life of the contract.

To translate that into dollars, though, there are a few things to consider. First is that for the last several years, 1 win above replacement has been right around $4.5M on the free agent market ... but this winter that has plummeted to the point that teams are only paying $3-3.5M per win on the open market.

Additionally, Mauer is not currently on the open market; the Twins can expect to get a (small) discount for extending him a year early, a year during which he could very well get injured and lose a shit-ton of money (this is standard procedure for all contracts). Beyond that, players on long-term contracts like this sacrifice about 10% of their fair market value in return for the security of the guaranteed contract. And both of those adjustments come before the possibility of a hometown discount -- I don't expect there'll be much of one, but it's possible.

So if we're paying $4.5M per win like teams have been doing for years, that 59.5 WAR over 10 years will cost $267.75M, minus the 10% for security and fudging downwards a bit for extending early ... around $230M, making Mauer one of the highest paid players in the league and giving him the third largest contract in baseball history (after ARod and ARod).

On the other hand, if the Twins are using the 2009-2010 offseason as an opportunity to spend less per win on Mauer's contract, say $3.5M per win, then the deal would cost just $208.25M, and adjusting downward for security and moving early, it'd get down to the $180-190M range.* If the Twins used the current free agent climate to negotiate this lower price, it'd be a remarkably savvy move from a front office that hasn't been known for that for some time. (And has never been known for shrewd contracts as much as player acquisition.)

* It's worth pointing out that there will presumably be deferred money in this deal, which further reduces the total value in "today's dollars." I don't know enough about baseball economics to estimate how much of the contract will be deferred and how much it will effect the real value of the contract. So I'm ignoring it here. Just know that deferred money generally means that the contract is worth less than the number of dollars on the bottom line, so you should watch out for the word "deferred" anywhere in reports about his contract.

Of course, these are just the rumored details. Other reports insist that the Twins aren't going as far as 10 years on a deal. If, as some reports say, it's just a 7 year contract, we're looking at just 46 WAR,* putting it in the range of $140-190M range (depending on whether we're valuing wins at $3.5M or $4.5M).

* I lopped off the final three years on the above projection of Mauer's value.

On one level, I want Mauer in a Twins uniform until his career ends. On another level, I felt the same way about Torii Hunter and Johan Santana and other players before them; those feelings went away shortly after they signed contracts that the Twins clearly couldn't afford, which will be paying them top-dollar even after they've declined to the point where they're not even close to worth the money any more. I certainly don't want to be paying Joe Mauer $20M+ to be a 36 year old former-catcher with bad knees and a balky back.

Long contracts always carry a ton of risk for the team. In Mauer's case, the Twins are essentially backed into a corner where they must take the risk; that dynamic did not exist in the Hunter & Santana negotiations. Mauer is the hometown hero, the Golden Child, the Baby Jesus of baseball in Minnesota. He, personally, is a big reason the Twins even have a new stadium to move into; if he's not on the team in 2011, the fans are going to be furious enough that they may well stop coming to the stadium, and the team knows it.

And frankly, the fact that it's Mauer's people that are leaking the information about the contract tells me that the Twins just may have done enough this offseason to convince Mauer that they're dedicated to building a team around him. Both Morneau and Nathan have recently come out and raved about the roster, saying they've never seen anything like this in their time with the Twins. Undoubtedly, Mauer has seen the same things.

Maybe I'm just getting swept up in the giddiness of tracking a rumor as it lives and breathes on the internet, but I'm getting more and more confident that we'll see a deal before Spring Training, and we can all rest a little easier.

Getting overly optimistic about Liriano

2010-02-01T00:00:00-08:00

One of the major questions facing the Twins coming into Spring Training* is what exactly they can expect from Francisco Liriano. Everybody knows his story, and everybody also knows that part of that story is that every year, around this time, word comes out of the Twins' offices that Liriano looks great, is throwing the living fire out of the ball, and we should be set at the top of the rotation, so nobody worry!

* It's just two weeks away now, by the way.

Of course, those prognostications have been totally false in the past; notably, in 2008 Gardy said he had reports of Liriano easily hitting 97-98 MPH on the gun, with a wicked slider that was as good as it was in 2006 ... and then he got to camp and was throwing in the high 80s with no command, and was a total mess. So are they changing their tune about Liriano this time around?

It's funny you should ask, because the answer, of course, is ... of course not!

The swell of positivity surrounding the lefty is the result of his successful offseason in the Dominican Republic, where he led his winter league team, the Leones del Escogido, to the Dominican League championship. After a flurry of dominance throughout the postseason — 3-1 with a 0.49 earned-run average in his seven playoff starts — Liriano reached his pinnacle moment in the championship game, striking out 10 and allowing just one hit in five shutout innings.

'That's me. That's how I know to pitch,' Liriano said of his winter ball results. 'I feel like in '06. I have my focus back; my arm feels great. (I'm) physically and mentally ready to go.'

Liriano reported that his fastball consistently hit 95-96 miles per hour this winter and that he located that pitch as well, something that's troubled him since his return from surgery. His slider, he said, regained its previously menacing form. Backing up the pitcher's assertions are his results — over seven postseason starts, Liriano struck out 47 batters in 37 innings.

Alexi Casilla faced Liriano in the Dominican championship series this year while Liriano was dominating everyone; Casilla hit .344 in the series* but struck out 4 times in 8 PAs against Liriano. He confirmed that Liriano's slider "looks like a different pitch" and is more menacing than ever. For what that's worth; I imagine that Casilla thinks every major-league-caliber pitcher is about as good as Nolan Ryan. After all, how else would they all make him look so bad out there?

* Some say he would have won the MVP if his team had won; unfortunately they had to face Liriano in the deciding Game 9. Also ... I love that they play a best-of-nine series down there. Those guys know how to play baseball.

So is Gardy going to tell us that all is finally right with the world, and we've got our ace?

'All the reports are that he's really, really throwing the ball well,' Gardenhire said of his pitcher who was 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA for the Twins in 2009. "This guy is potentially a No. 1 guy, "Gardenhire said. "Everybody's always looking for a No. 1 guy. I don't want to put the pressure on and say he's a No. 1 guy. He's had No. 1 stuff, and he's had No. 1 success before. He could be very entertaining."

Well, I wouldn't call that saying everything's going to work out perfectly. I think Gardy did a good job here of not going overboard with a Liriano projection. Apparently, Gardy has learned his lesson from being burned by these reports from the Dominican Republic over the last few years.

But pardon me for not learning my lesson here, because I'm getting excited. I absolutely cannot wait for Spring Training to start so I can see Liriano unleash the ball again. And if he's back to normal* the Twins will have basically locked up the AL Central before the season starts.

* And by "normal" I mean "superhuman, like in 2006" ... I felt that needed clearing up.

And since this is the internet, I feel I should make a prediction. I think Liriano's ERA will be under 3, and I think he'll strike out 200 people this year. Yes, you can call me wildly optimistic.

Anybody else have Liriano predictions they want to share?

The Sunflower Attack

2010-01-31T00:00:00-08:00

I was going to write a regular post about this, but I was having trouble picking out just which quotes I wanted to use; there were just so many I wanted! Well, if that's not a perfect invitation for a nice little fisking, I don't know what is. So here goes ... with a little help from Tom Powers of the Pioneer Press, and his latest on the Twins' new dedication to winning in the playoffs.

Playing against the Minnesota Twins is like getting flicked in the head with a sunflower seed. At first, there's no visible damage. But by the end of the summer, and after dozens and dozens of little pings to head, the opposition is staggered.

Plus, it really gets the troops riled up when Gardy rallies them by shouting "get your sunflower seeds ready, boys, let's gem 'em!" before the games. The crackling of the little plastic bags sends shivers down the spines of their opponents come mid-summer, when the oppressive heat and humidity makes it difficult to move your head out of the way of a projectile seed and you find yourself lethargically submitting to this absurd torture.

And the Twins win the division.

Well, sometimes, they do.

Then the Twins enter the playoffs brandishing their tiny sunflower seeds and — kapow! — they are the first ones eliminated. How many times have we seen this? After so many entertaining summers the team has gotten no closer to advancing in the postseason.

You mean the level of difficulty takes a big jump up, and the team that just managed to scrape by when it was easier has tremendous problems adjusting, and they get beaten by a superior team in the playoffs? Outrage!

That's because the Twins always have been built for the long haul.

Actually, that's interesting. Is it true that the Twins are "built for the long haul," and if so, how exactly? I mean, is it because they always seem to have nine 4th/5th starters that they can slide in (but lack a good one-two punch at the top of the rotation, which you need in the playoffs), and a handy collection of utility infielders who can step in and play in case players need rest or get injured?

They do enough little things right, make the fewest number of critical mistakes, to be able to squeeze into the top spot.

Oh. Well, I can't argue with the little things. It's the little things that make up life. It's just too bad the Twins don't do the little things right, and are constantly making critical mistakes. They succeed in spite of that because of their star players, like Mauer, Morneau, and Span.

But the playoffs are about star power and great individual performances. They are about lightning-bolt home runs that come from anywhere in the batting order and pitching gems under fantastic pressure.

Yes, the playoffs are not about a long, boring grind through a miserable summer that drives away a great number of people from their putative national pastime because they have something better to do than watch yet another baseball game on such a nice day. They're about exciting home runs, epic clutchitude, and gripping story lines that sportswriters can latch onto and use to tell us which players have that little special something that allowed their team to win a few games when it actually matters.

To this point, the Twins have been content to win their division and take their chances in the playoffs.

You can't win in the playoffs without getting there, so consistently winning your division and hoping to catch lightning one of these years isn't exactly a bad solution for a mid-market/low-revenue team like the Twins. You think other teams who pull in as much money as the Twins (Pirates and Royals) wouldn't like to trade positions, and get their asses kicked in the playoffs while we suffer 100 loss seasons in their stead?

That strategy appears to be shifting. The organization is starting to think ahead to October. Winning the division and getting blasted out of the playoffs may not be enough anymore.

Woo hoo! Let's all dance in the street! Bill Smith isn't going to play second fiddle any more, and therefore, surely, he'll start pulling the trigger on some deals that will significantly improve the team.

This is the main reason general manager Bill Smith signed Jim Thome, a veteran of 64 career playoff games. In those games he has 17 home runs. And it's one of the reasons Smith re-signed Carl Pavano, who had a great playoff run with the 2003 champion Florida Marlins. Pavano sports a 1.71 earned-run average in nine postseason appearances.

Okay, let me get this straight. The problem is that the Twins succeed over the long haul, and have repeatedly failed to win the last series of the season (the one in the playoffs). Rather than stay rational, and realize that the best way to improve their chances in the postseason is simply to improve their team overall ... they're going to invest in players who've had small-sample-size success to complement their own players' small-sample-size failures?

"That's exactly right," Smith said. "We have to keep our eyes on what's at hand, which is to win the division. But once we do that we have to find a way to get past the Red Sox, Yankees and Angels. We have to find a way to beat the best teams and advance in the playoffs."

And that is why it's important to have Thome's 17 postseason HRs sitting on the bench, especially since he hasn't hit any since 2001.

Smith acknowledges that it might take some effort to keep Pavano healthy. But manager Ron Gardenhire has been a staunch supporter of bringing Pavano back, and Smith agrees.

Damn the torpedoes, as it were. It's important to invest in fragile middle-of-the-rotation guys and call them the ace of the staff because they're the oldest and had success in the playoffs many years ago, in their prime. Gardy knows this, that's why he's been so good at winning playoff games in his career.

As for the 39-year-old Thome, Smith said he appears to be in good enough shape to play the odd game at first base. Thome has played just four games in the field since 2006, though, so such a scenario seems unlikely.

At this point, I can't tell if Powers is writing a puff piece, or ripping the organization. He keeps relaying what the team thinks, then pointing out why it's kind of stupid ... but not nearly directly enough.

"But I talked with him and he's willing," Smith said.

Oh, he's willing to play first base? Do you not realize, Mr Smith, that his willingness to play in the field is trumped by his inability to actually do so? Or that the White Sox might have tried to use him at first when Konerko was hurt, or the Dodgers might have tried to use him once or twice to give Loney a break down the stretch?

Smith said he's still looking around but isn't likely to make any more moves before spring training. At least, he probably won't do anything considered major.

So you're saying that the Twins are no longer content with just winning the division, and they want to start making a move in the playoffs ... and they want us to believe that while they're leaving question marks at half the infield, and the top of the rotation?

That means the Twins will be in the familiar position of trying to "make do" at a couple of positions. As it stands, second base and third base will consist of a mishmash of players. But there just aren't any decent third basemen available. And the Twins are unwilling to go through the Joe Crede "day to day" thing again in 2010.

Well, the fact that there aren't any good third basemen available means they shouldn't consider second base options like Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez. That's how free agency works, people!

They also lack backups in center field, first base and catcher. In other words, they lack depth.

Because Pridie isn't a backup at CF, Morales isn't a backup at C, and Cuddyer/Thome/someone-from-AAA isn't a backup at 1B.

"Ideally, if we could put a wish list together, we'd get a right-handed bat that can play center field and first base," Smith said.

That's your wishlist?! A guy who plays both 1B and CF (?!?!?!) ... rather than a solution at second base or third base? A 1B/CF doesn't even exist in the baseball universe (though something tells me Bill Smith doesn't realize that), and wasting a roster spot to take playing time away from Morneau and Span doesn't exactly scream "Great Idea!" to me.

The projected backup catcher, Jose Morales, had wrist surgery and won't return until toward the end of spring training. Morales is a heck of a hitter but a liability in the field.

It's more important to have depth in March than it is in August and September, so Morales being injured now means we won't have depth during the season. And when it comes to a backup catcher, he's pretty much pointless if he's not as good as your regular catcher.

But it's too early to evaluate the roster.

Which is why it's a good thing the Twins still haven't evaluated theirs. If they had, they might have realized that they're planning to play with only half and infield.

There will be plenty of competition among the pitchers, and it's difficult to say how that will turn out. However, the bigger news remains the recognition of the need to build a bit differently for playoff success. Thome will limit Gardenhire's flexibility all season. If he's healthy in October, though, it could be worth it.

Thome will take up a bench spot all season and Gardy will blame the team's struggles on his lack of flexibility, but once they get to the playoffs then Thome jumps up off the bench and starts socking dingers all over the place! What a plan!

Pavano had four years of health problems before rebounding in 2009. If he finds his pre-2005 groove, he could be a real asset, especially in October. With the exception of the veteran Pavano, the Twins' rotation is rather green.

The Twins' rotation has been "rather green" for three years ... and it's all the same guys. At what point are they no longer "fresh-faced youngsters", and instead "disappointments?"

Soon the Twins will begin flicking their sunflower seeds in Fort Myers.

If the Mayor's Cup were 100 games instead of just 5, the Twins might have more of a chance of winning it. That's how The Sunflower Attack works, right?

Once again they hope to ping their way to a division title. Their hope is that, come playoff time, they will be better equipped against the big boys.

Yup, Thome and Pavano will make the difference this year. Or, since Pavano pitched in the 2009 playoffs (he pitched well and lost because he didn't get any run support), I guess he won't be a big difference in how they're equipped this year. So the addition of Jim Thome and his commanding presence on the bench is supposed to put the Twins over the top this year?

And another thing. Given that the biggest improvement the Twins made this year was adding JJ Hardy, who will make a bigger difference on the field during the regular season and the postseason than Thome will ... why was he completely omitted from this article? After all, he's had amazing success in his playoff career. He's batting .429! He has a 1.000 OPS! What a clutch superstar! (Small sample sizes are important, right?)

That was refreshing. Just as the players are starting to hit the gym again in preparation for heading down to spring training, I need to shake the rust off after a winter of inactivity. So I'd like to thank Tom Powers and Bill Smith for the material, and hopefully material like this keeps on flowing in.

Just remember: baseball season is right around the corner.

Twins sign Jim Thome

2010-01-26T00:00:00-08:00

Well it's official, the Twins signed Jim Thome. The deal is reported to be for $1.5 million, with up to $750K in incentives. I'm assuming these are plate appearance incentives. The price tag on this deal seems too good to pass up, so I'm OK with it.

I have two fears that arose with this signing. The first is that we won't pursue any middle infield candidates. The second is that Jim Thome will stunt the development of Delmon Young. While Thome has better numbers against righties than Young does, Delmon is still very raw. Maybe Thome will help him develop as a slugger. Ideally, the Twins will acquire either Lopez or Hudson in the coming weeks, and Thome will be used primarily off the bench and occasionally as the DH depending on the matchup. If we are facing a pitcher who Thome has historically crushed, then by all means start him.

So, let's hope that Bill Smith isn't done making moves, but I am not overly optimistic.

Jim Thome?

2010-01-25T00:00:00-08:00

Joe C is reportingthat the Twins are hot on the trail of free agent DH/Twin Killer Jim Thome. When I first read this story I was confused. The Twins already have a DH who cannot hit lefties. What would we need Thome for? He made $13 million last year, so how much of a pay cut can be expected? Would he really be willing to accept a bench role?

Aaron Gleeman opines that he platoon at DH with Young while Kuble takes most of the reps in left. I wouldn't mind seeing that happen, Thome hits righties too well to be a bench player. While Young is pretty terrible at everything. The biggest question at this point has to be his price tag. The Twins payroll already looks to be in the $90 million range with gaping holes in the infield. Would Thome accept a pay cut down to the $1 million range? I don't know which AL teams have a hole at DH, but it seems like a team like the Yankees or Red Sox can give Thome more money to do the same job.

I like the thinking that the Twins need to upgrade their bench, but I don't think the price on Thome will come down to the point where it is worth it to sign him as a bench player. If they are committed to giving him the bulk of DH at bats against righties, then I think they should go for it. Given the current payroll level and glaring holes elsewhere, maybe we are better off going after someone like Ryan Garko as a bat off the bench. Any money we have available should be put towards a second or thirdbaseman.

What do you guys think about Jim Thome in a Twins uniform?

Eight is Enough

2010-01-19T00:00:00-08:00

See what I did there? Eight is Enough was apparently a tv show at some point in time.

The Twins had eight arbitration eligible players and they signed them today in order to avoid arbitration. Arbitration is a pretty ugly process, so avoiding it is great. A player basically has to convince a third party why he deserves X dollars, and management has to convince that party why the player doesn't. Can you imagine how bridges can be burned if Smith is in a room listing the reasons why Liriano sucks. With Liriano present. Not fun.

So, here are the contracts:

Pavano- 1 year, $7million

Harris- 2 years, $3.2 million, with various plate appearance incentives included.

Liriano- 1 year, $1.6 million

Hardy- 1 year, $5.1 million

Crain- 1 year, $2 million (that is terrible, by the way)

Guerrier- 1 year, $3.15 million

Young- 1 year, $2.6 million, with various plate appearance incentives. Should be interesting to see if Gardy benches him down the stretch. Although the incentives aren't very significant.

Neshek- 1 year $625K. With a minor incentive that can kick it up to $700K.

Today was a pretty expensive day for the Twins. I don't like the 2 million they gave to Crain, I think we would have been better off non-tendering him. That figure for Guerrier seems a little high. Especially when we are paying Nathan a boatload of money, you combine that with Crain and that is one pricey bullpen.

I thought Liriano would make a little bit more, but given his crappy year in 2009 I guess I'm OK with throwing him a million and some change in what might be one of his last chances with the team. If he ends up in the pen, that makes it that much more expensive and upsets me even more.

I don't really have a problem with giving Harris two years. He is a useful player who will still be making much less than Nick Punto.

What does everyone else think of the (relatively) big bucks tossed around by the Twins this afternoon? Was it worth it to avoid several ugly arbitration cases? Or would you have like to see Smith take that worthless Canadian Crain down a peg or two?

What the Washburn talks said about the Twins' financial situation

2010-01-09T00:00:00-08:00

Frequent reader rghrbek posted a comment on yesterday's Washburn post that I think is worth quoting and discussing in a new post:

I have this impending doomed feeling that the Twins will “get their man” and sign washburn right before spring training for 5 mil.

The twins could offer Lopez 10 mil over 2 years with a 5.5 mil option on the 3rd year, with a mil buyout. That is money well spent.

Bill Smith said that the reason the Washburn talks broke down was that Boras wants a multi-year deal, but -- and this is important -- the Twins feel they can't commit any new money beyond 2010 in anticipation of the Mauer contract.

If that's true, that would explain* why they'd consider themselves unable to offer such a contract to Felipe Lopez. If they can't commit money beyond 2010, then they certainly can't offer him a 2 year contract with an option for year 3.

* Which is to say that it would "explain it in such a way that it's much more satisfying to me than the idea that the Twins don't consider Lopez a viable 2B candidate for performance reasons." Thought I should clarify that.

And if that's really the case, it's a disaster. Do they think Mauer isn't tapped into the news surrounding his contract negotiatons? Mauer's repeatedly said he wants to be in position to win, and he doesn't want to sign a long contract with a team that's not going to build a championship-caliber team around him. This offseason, I'd thought it looked like the Twins were doing everything they could in 2010 to show Mauer that they're committed to winning.

But if they start sending signals that if they have Mauer's big contract on the books then they can't spend any money, all that work is thrown out the window. If Mauer even thinks the Twins aren't willing to pull out all the stops to win a championship, it just got a whole lot more difficult to sign him. He won't have such reservations about the Yankees and Red Sox, which will work in concert with their presumably much larger contract offers to convince him to leave the Twins.

I see this as another reason to try to get Lopez on a contract like the one proposed by rghrbek, beyond the simple fact that it'd be a good deal for both sides in a vacuum. I'm not at all confident in the Twins' front office, though.

Maybe not...

2010-01-07T00:00:00-08:00

According to LEN3 the Twins have made no offer to Washburn. This is excellent news. Smith has declined to comment, so we aren't out of the woods yet.

We'll keep an eye on this situation, hopefully Scott Boras fabricated the whole thing as a source of leverage for Washburn.

Jarrod Washburn!?

2010-01-06T00:00:00-08:00

According to something called Scott Miller over at CBSsports.com, the Twins have made an offer to Jarrod Washburn. Here are the reasons Miller thinks the Twins think Washburn can help the team:

As for Washburn, 35, the Twins view him as a perfect fit in that he is left-handed, he's got a reputation as being a good guy in the clubhouse, he's pitched enough that he can help anchor a young staff and he's an Upper Midwest native (he was born in Wisconsin and still lives in there in the off-season, in Webster).

As you can see, none of those reasons are "he is a good pitchers who can get people out and win games".

I see no reason to sign Washburn if we already have Pavano. Is Washburn really much of an upgrade over someone like Perkins/Duensing/Liriano (or Manship if you want to include right handers)? I say no. Especially since the Twins seem reluctant to cut ties with failed free agent pitchers in a timely fashion (see: Hernandez, Livan, and Ortiz, Ramon). Couldn't you just see the Twins trotting Washburn and his 5.50 ERA out to the mound every fifth day until mid-July? I totally could.

Washburn was excellent for a few months in Seattle last year but he was a) playing in a massive park, and b) had one of the best outfield defenses EVER playing behind him. Everyone claims his knee injury caused his 7+ ERA with the Tigers, but I think it was a combination of the knee and his inherent crappiness rising to the surface.

What do you think? Would Washburn help the team or are we better off filling in the last rotation spot internally?

Fisking the death of baseball by 2020

2010-01-05T00:00:00-08:00

Tim Marchman usually isn't totally off the mark, from what I can tell, but just because someone isn't an idiot does not mean they can't spew some idiocy from time to time.* Typically around this time of year, people post retrospectives on the year gone by, and what we can look forward to in the upcoming year; personally, I think that's a bunch of crap. And it's even worse since we finished a decade and are starting a new one.** That's where Marchman comes in: he wrote an article about what we (as baseball fans) can "look forward to" in the next ten years.

* Triple negative? Yeah, we're doing this thing!

** Don't give me any of that "but the decade isn't over yet, because what about year zero?!" mumbo jumbo. This is America, dude. The 70's started in 1970, not in 1971. I'm just saying.

It will still be better than football

That was your title? Uplifting, and somewhat obvious.

The aughts generally were awful and a review of them could only have ended with a rope, a plastic bag, a bottle of wine and another of pills. What's worse, the teens look to have potential in this line. We'll hope the twenties arrive hurriedly.

Who's trying to commit suicide here? Because it sounds like 3+ people just got handled. And as a matter of fact, no, we're not hoping the next ten years go by in a flash. I'll be an old man complaining about loud music and kids these days by then.

At least in the aughts we had good baseball to distract us, but I have five reasons to think the coming decade is going to be a crashing bore; you can surely add your own.

At least? So ... the next decade will, as a whole, be extremely boring, and there won't be baseball? Are you sure you meant to use the words "at least"?

1) Technological advances

Those are boring.

The installation of camera systems in ballparks that will, once refined, allow clubs to precisely measure every aspect of performance is not going to be a good thing. Every club looking at the exact same accurate information will lead to monoculture. Current evaluative metrics, which are quite crude, are already having a bit of that effect; truly granular ones will even more so.

What makes baseball a great sport is that there are shitty teams that are always doing stupid things! If it weren't for the Royals and Pirates and Nationals and, occasionally, the Giants ... well, baseball would just be boring. I mean, when the Twins have the day off and I flick on MLB.TV to check out another game that day, what do I say to myself? Do I say "Ooh, the Rays are playing the Red Sox, that could be good"? How about "Yankees/Angels, excellent"? No! Of course not! I eagerly flip over to the epic Nationals/Pirates showdown, because bad teams are what makes games exciting. Right? Wait, no? So ... then what the fuck is Marchman talking about?

This won't take the human element out of the game. When clubs have something near perfect information it will, if anything, make instinct and intuition much more important, as no team will be able to get an advantage just by noting that obviously good players are good, meaning teams will have to actually get creative.

Oh. So I guess what he was talking about was that the players would be better, the "human element" would still be there, and front offices will have to be more creative. Yup, sounds pretty shitty.

Still, the kind of smarts that allow one to read a boring actuarial spreadsheet properly are quite common

Are they?

while the kind that allow one to steal an edge on rivals by shrewdly picking out the drunks whose drinking won't affect their development are quite rare.

So that's why sportswriters and old people think scouts are so mystical and important? Because they have alcoholic radar of some sort?

I worry that just as the former were violently underappreciated in baseball for many years, the latter may come to be, which would be disastrous.

I actually agree with this. But rather than making up some doomeriffic crap, I'd actually think about this first. Just like most things, the stats/scouts dichotomy will eventually reach an equilibrium where both stats and scouts are seen as essential. For a long time, that equilibrium was nowhere to be found; there was a "technological" advancement that caused the popularity of stats to rise, and that continues to happen. In the upcoming couple of years, the see may well saw too far in favor of stats. Do not worry! It will only be temporary; markets always seek out an equilibrium, and I haven't heard anything from the stats side of this argument saying "scouts are useless and should all be killed." It's not going to happen. By 2020, I'd guess that we're close to a balance, and it'll fluctuate year to year, but never very far. Not really much of a headline, I guess.

Far better a room full of drunk Bavasis than a room full of Wall Street washouts spouting MBA buzzwords, if you have to choose.

Why are those the choices? Because Bavasi was a pretty awful GM ... and Jack Z has done a pretty tremendous job of replacing him and fixing everything he wrecked in Seattle in the short time he's had there. I don't know if anyone would consider Jack Z a "Wall Street washout spouting MBA buzzwords," but if you do, that's on you. Also, if owners continue to agree with Marchman about this choice, we're guaranteed to continue with the "these teams are good every year" and the "these teams are terrible and getting worse and there's no hope whatsoever" split that we currently have. But since having a significant portion of the league suck balls is good for baseball (see above), maybe Marchman's got a point here.

2) Postliteracy

Do you mean "after becoming literate," or "no longer literate," or perhaps "more literate than ever"?

The beat writer's job is devolving into the maintenence of a Twitter feed, 'hits' on TV and radio and quickly turned 'takes' on the issue of the hour,

Which is exactly what beat writers would have been doing since the beginning, if they were able to instantly publish to millions of people.

more substantive writing is supported by a half dozen or so outlets that probably won't exist in recognizable form in 10 years,

Yeah, and they'll be replaced by just as many (if not more) new outlets.

and for all I know the coming generation of writers will have grown up doing immense neurological damage to themselves by reading too much off screens.

For all you know? For all you know, the previous generation of writers did themselves immense neurological damage by looking at crappy newspaper pages while sitting under fluorescent lights too much. Or for all you know, screens might be so good in ten years that it's far easier on your eyes than paper ever was.

Of course there will still be good writing—today's average column or game story is incalculably better than one from 50 years ago—but there will be less of it than there is now and the best of it likely won't be as good.

So you're saying that the explosion of baseball-related content in this decade proves that all baseball-related content will disappear in the next decade? Wouldn't it make more sense that, as the cost of publishing stays at zero, more people would create baeball-related content? Posnanski emerged as a national force during this decade -- would he have become so ludicrously famous while writing only for the Kansas City Star? No, it would have been impossible. More access for more people will create both the demand for more content, and the supply of it. Why is it so hard for people to figure that out? Baseball writing will go away because technology makes it too easy to produce and consume baseball content? No.

And the constant need to feed the beast in an age when a print model has essentially been replaced by a broadcast model will have other effects as well. I can't, for example, be the only one to think that the rightly admired Joe Posnanski is courting burnout by dropping multiple five to ten thousand word blog posts every week in addition to his real writing, though we'll continue to hope he's Iron Joe McGinnity.

You're right, Posnanski should do less of what he loves. Fuck off, I love those Posnanski posts. And if he ever stops doing them, it won't be because the internet killed his love of baseball with its inability to recognize which kind of drunk will get too drunk.

3) Death of television

Tasty.

This is a big one. If you thought the death of newspapers was ugly, wait until you see the death of cable as it converges with online, much to the latter's advantage.

The bigger they are, the harder they fall, I suppose. But isn't it possible that the television companies won't be as comfortable with burying their heads in the sand and demanding that the world stop advancing as the newspapers were?

Do you really think baseball has a better answer for all that lost revenue than the Times did?

Well, MLB Advanced Media has this thing called MLB.TV, where they directly charge their customers for live video of the games. I gladly pay for it, as do millions of other people ... and that's just right now. Baseball is pioneering the post-television live video industry.

4) The economy

Yup, there's no chance that improves in the next ten years.

If the economy has really turned Japanese we're probably in for some hideous effects:

We'll see.

A labor stoppage out of the next CBA negotiations for one,

Why would you assume this? Because of the unusually long stretch of labor peace we're currently experiencing? Is this another one of those "the evidence proves the opposite of itself, therefore whatever I'm saying is proven" arguments?

and the death of some major league towns for another. No matter how wealthy its suburbs are, a city like Detroit where more than half the residents are unemployed cannot be reasonably expected to support competitive baseball.

This might happen. But it's more likely that a city like Detroit will simply no longer be able to support all four sports; why assume it's baseball that would lose out here?

5) Doping scandals

Yet another current problem that won't go away in the next ten years? Creative.

I don't know or really care what guys are on these days, but it isn't nothing, and we're in for a repeat of the world's least interesting scandal once people figure out that various famous players held up as admirable because they claim not to use drugs actually do use them.

That's it? That's your whole analysis of the "upcoming" drug scandals? What if people realize that the old-fashioned fearmongers in the dead-press were the only ones screaming about this? What if the drug testing that's in place continues to work (as it already has been)? What if once the newspapers are finally dead, baseball fans get their analysis from writers who think about their positions rather than just being angry that things are different from how they were in the 1960s, when people didn't know about the drugs the players were using? I'd say this is another one that'll just go away, rather than being one of the top 5 biggest reasons we should all stop being baseball fans within the next 10 years.

So in case you read this article and were worried about baseball dying, you can go ahead and relax. I'm calling bullshit on this whole thing.

Surplus Value

2009-12-10T00:00:00-08:00

After the news that Boof has been traded to the Red Sox for a PTBNL or cash, we also learned that the Twins have been actively trying to trade Perkins, and that Casilla is also available. That raised a question in the comments around here, based loosely around this premise:

If the Twins are unloading backups like this, why would Casilla be "available," why not try to trade Punto, who is a better player than Casilla, in an attempt to get more in return?

First, a quick check into their values:

Casilla peaked in 2008 with +1.2 WAR, but in 2007 & 2009 he was worth -0.9 and -1.4 WAR, respectively. In his career, he's been worth a total of -1.0 WAR.
Punto peaked in 2006 with +3.1 WAR, and also had +2.6 in 2008. He was +1.3 WAR in 2009. He's never been below replacement level with the Twins (he did produce -0.1 and -0.2 in 2002-2003 in extremely limited time with the Phillies). In his career, he's been worth a total of +8.7 WAR.

In addition Punto is at least capable of offering a steady hand at any infield position; Casilla has offered no more than a flashy but subpar glove at second base. It seems to me that there's little doubt that Punto is the more valuable baseball player. So the Twins would have better luck trying to trade Punto, rather than Casilla, right?

Well, no. Not really.

The first thing to look at is their respective ages: Casilla is 25, while Punto is 32. Casilla could possibly improve and become a useful player at his peak in a year or two. Punto is almost certainly past his peak. Teams will definitely consider that kind of thing.

But the second, and arguably more important, thing: surplus value.

Punto will probably produce somewhere between +1 and +2 WAR this year; it's possible he has a 2006/2008-esque great year, and it's also possible he falls off a cliff and reverts to pre-2006 shit-Punto, but neither are particularly likely. At the same time, Punto will be paid $4M, which is right around what a team would expect to pay for 1 win worth of production on the free agent market.

This is important: if a team wanted a player who would provide as much value as Punto does, they could sign someone on the market for the same amount that Punto is making.

Similarly, if the Twins were to trade him, that team would then be paying Punto the same amount that he's worth. So what kind of prospects can the Twins expect in return? Virtually nothing. Punto's contract has exactly zero surplus value.

But Casilla is making considerably less. He's before his prime. You can't sign athletic 25 year old infielders on the free agent market. It's feasible to guess that Casilla could be a useful player in a year or two, possibly with more time in the minors. If a team wanted to take a mild risk, they could acquire Casilla and hope to get some good value out of him.

The Twins could probably trade Casilla for a Boof-like haul, ie close to nothing. That represents his value on the trade market right now -- but even though he's a worse player than Punto, he's worth more in trade.

Something to think about when you're hoping for a trade or analyzing who your team is getting/receiving. You're not just looking at the players involved -- you're also looking at their contracts.

Boof gets cut

2009-12-09T00:00:00-08:00

After Carl Pavano accepted arbitration, the Twins found themselves in a brand new bind -- they had 41 players on their 40 man roster. So they had to get rid of someone, and there were certainly plenty of options.* But they chose to cut Boof Bonser, and I can't say I understand the decision.

* Tolbert if you want to cut the worst player, Keppel if you want to cut the worst pitcher.

Boof pitched poorly enough in 2008 to lose his job, then missed all of 2009 with an injury. The Twins, it's worth noting, gave him the typical Twins medical advice when he began having shoulder problems during 2008; rest and rehabilitation to waste a few months, then major surgery when it becomes clear rest & rehab never could have actually solved the problem. Hey, it worked for Neshek! So Boof ended up getting the Jesse Crain Special* and missed the year. Of course, he got a year of major league service time for that -- just like Liriano and Neshek did -- which means Boof would have been arbitration eligible this year, and would almost certainly have cost over $1M.

* That's the "rotator cuff and torn labrum" surgery that all Twins pitchers seem to need after spending enough time with Rick Anderson. What? Did I say that out loud?

So yes, maybe the move was predicated on money, but it'd only be half a million more than Bobby Keppel makes, and I don't see a reason to think that Boof couldn't have bested Keppel's 91 ERA+ in a long-relief/mop-up role. And given Boof's arm and stuff and propensity for strikeouts, he certainly had more upside; a pitcher like that could have success as a 7th/8th inning setup man.

I don't think this move was about money -- there's just not enough of it involved. And I don't think it's about talent either -- even Gardenhire must know that Keppel's no great shakes. I'd be somewhat surprised if we haven't replaced Keppel by the time Spring Training ends.

I think this move indicated something else; that the Twins have soured on Bonser, perhaps much in the same way that they've soured on Perkins. I don't know why they might have given up on him ... maybe he put a bunch of weight back on, maybe his velocity is down, maybe he's not taking well to his workout program, maybe he's being an asshole, maybe the Twins are being assholes, there are plenty of options. But Boof's stock has tanked over the last 18 months, and it can't all be because of performance. (He'd need to have either gotten on the mound, or indicated that he can't get back onto the mound, for it to be solely or primarily for performance reasons.)

It remains to be seen if there's any interest around the league. How many teams have a roster spot available for a high-upside strikeout pitcher in his 20s on a minor league contract? Would they be willing to take the risk given his injury history?

If nobody wants Boof, the Twins can keep him at AAA, which is probably what they're hoping for. But I can't imagine any reason to take this risk given the option of simply cutting Keppel loose.

What do you think the reasoning here was? Are you happy to see Boof go, or not?

Pavano accepts arbitration

2009-12-08T00:00:00-08:00

Last night at midnight eastern was the deadline for players to accept or decline arbitration. Carl Pavano took his sweet time, and acceptedlate last night. I think this is a good thing for the Twins. I was afraid they would foolishly give him the multi-year deal he was looking for. However, but accepting arbitration, we now know that nobody wanted to give Pavano more than a one year deal. Prior to 09, Pavano pitched just 145 innings over the course of his stay in the Bronx. He will need to have a second consecutive 200 ip season to prove he is worth anything more than a one year deal. I obviously hope he does that for the Twins in 2010.

We now have 4 of our 5 rotation spots filled. With Baker, Slowey, and Blackburn taking the other three. The fifth spot in the rotation will most likely be fought over by Liriano, Duensing, Swarzak, Manship, and Perkins. I hope Smith tries to trade the last one, as it seems Perkins and Management aren't getting along. At this point Perkins is the definition of expendable. We have 4 back of the rotation guys who have major league experience (3 if you think Liriano is a bullpen arm and nothing more). We don't need all four of them. If someone is willing to give us much of anything for Perkins I say we do it. Ideally we get some pieces that fill a hole, but the best move now is to just clear out the logjam at the back of the rotation and amongst middle relievers.

What do you guys think? Are you excited to have Pavano back? Who should take the fifth spot in the rotation? What should we do with Perkins?

Sano/Jean gets his visa, marks a turning point in Twins history

2009-12-05T00:00:00-08:00

This is just paperwork at this point, but Miguel Angel Sano/Jean* has received his work visa and will be allowed to travel to the USA and work for the Minnesota Twins.

* When he was negotiating the deal, his name was "Miguel Angel Sano." When he signed the contract with the Twins, he became "Miguel Jean." When he got his work visa, he is apparently "Miguel Angel Sano" again. Sano is his mother's name, and Dominican people typically use their mother's name out of respect until they come of age and begin using their father's name -- but if you're in the middle of an identity/age verification process, is this really the type of stuff you want to be doing? I'll be calling him Sano/Jean for the foreseeable future.

Thus ends the first exciting ordeal of his professional baseball career -- the process of proving his identity and age and officially becoming the property of a major league team. As everyone knows by now, Sano/Jean claimed he was 16 years old and few believed him (he's 6'3", 190 lbs, and very advanced for his apparent age); the Pirates were said to be most interested in his services, but refused to commit without proof of his age. When MLB said they could verify his identity but not his age, the Pirates submitted a lowball offer to his agent, and the Twins were able to steal him away by taking a risk on him.

"Miguel will pick up his visa on Monday and with that it ends a long and painful process," [Sano/Jean's agent, Rob] Plummer said. "Many teams were interested in Sano's talent, but Minnesota always trusted that everything was right and that's why today they have one of the best young players in the world."

Sano/Jean will most likely report to the Pacific Gulf Coast league to start his professional career in 2010.

The Sano/Jean signing was, in my mind, one of the three events that marked a turning point in the history of the Twins organization, from the "fill up with low-risk/low-upside middle infielders who can't hit and supplement with the occasional low-baseball-IQ super-athlete who probably won't make it" philosophy of the 1990s and 2000s, to a much more aggressive "focus on high-upside talent even if it costs more money and entails considerable risk" strategy that they've shown lately with these three moves:

Signing German teenager Max Kepler to the largest bonus in the history of European players
Signing Dominican teenager Miguel Angel Sano/Jean to one of the largest bonuses in the history of Latin American players
Going well above slot to steal Kyle Gibson with the 22nd pick of the draft after he slipped from the top 5/10 due to injury concerns

Obviously, the former strategy has worked well; the Twins rebuilt themselves from the disaster that was the 1990s into a model franchise by following it. But the time for a change had certainly come: it would be virtually (if not completely) impossible for the team to take the next step without focusing on higher-upside prospects. And after the Twins blogosphere clamored for years for the Twins to at least try to take the step from "annually contending within the division but incapable of competing with the top AL teams" to perhaps being able to make a title run and sustain a higher level of success, they've finally started to do it.

For now, 2008 and 2009 have been remarkable for the back-to-back Game 163s, and for the transcendent play of Mauer. But by the time Sano/Jean reaches the high minors, 2008/2009 could very well be remembered as the year the Twins changed course and altered their history for the better.

Over the long run, that's much more significant.

Figgins might be going to the Mariners, but what does it mean?

2009-12-04T00:00:00-08:00

With the latest rumor that Chone Figgins is close to signing a 4/$36M deal with the Mariners, I'm left wondering how in the world the Twins aren't able to top that deal.

Figgins is the top infielder on the free agent market, and very well should have had his pick of suitors this winter -- and given his value over the past few years and his stellar glove and his high OBP, the offers should have been pretty big.

I don't know if the Twins offered him a contract, or talked to his agents, or even showed any interest in upgrading from a Tolbert/Harris platoon at 3B. I really, really hope so, but the Twins are being as secretive as ever* and we simply have no idea.

* That works great if you're Apple or Google or something, and are constantly doing awesome stuff and springing it on people when they had no idea it was coming, and you keep on doing it over and over again. But when the secrets end up being "we signed Nick Punto to a multi-year deal" or a shit sandwich like "we traded our top pitcher and our starting shortstop for the worst player in the league," or "we think the team that wasn't quite good enough last year is good enough next year," well, it doesn't work quite as well.

But it's at least possible that the Twins engaged Figgins; I'd like to hope that they offered him more than 4/$36M -- he's been worth more than $9M in every season he's been a starter except for 2006, and his skillset figures to degrade slowly over time. I'd say it's a good bet that he'll be worth more than $36M over the course of the next four years. Like I said ... I hope the Twins offered more than that.

But maybe it wasn't good enough. People always talk about how "money isn't always the biggest thing" for some players; that there are other things they take into account, and that the biggest offer doesn't always get the player. At the same time, though, doesn't it seem like players always sign for the largest dollar amount? Last winter, Teixeira was considering the Nationals and (moreso) the Orioles because he's from the area, and they offered him a staggeringly large deal. The Red Sox offered a contract in the same ballpark, and he'd love to play for the Red Sox because he loves their history and their city and he wants to win. And then the Yankees came in, just about Boston's offer, and it turns out that Teixeira's dream has always been to wear pinstripes, so in the end he got exactly what he wanted ... but he also got the biggest contract that anyone offered him. Is it all bullshit? Maybe. I don't know.

Today, though, we learn that sometimes players do turn down the biggest offer to go somewhere they like more. In this case, the A's offered the largest contract to Marco Scutaro, but he opted for the Red Sox instead because he "preferred the chance to win a World Series with the Red Sox."* So sometimes, money isn't everything.

* If someone had said that six years ago, what would you have said?

Realistically, of course, Figgins can't think he has a better shot at a title with the Mariners than he would with the Twins. The Twins are very close to being built to win now, and as a playing situation, slotting into the 2 spot in the order between Span and Mauer can hardly be beat.

Maybe those things aren't what's important to Figgins. Maybe he wants to stay on the west coast rather than coming to the midwest. Maybe he doesn't like the prospect of being the 6th or 7th best player on the team and would rather be the 1st or 2nd best -- I think it's believable that a guy would rather be the biggest fish. Maybe his postseason struggles, and the attention they've gotten, have effected him and he'd rather be in a situation where they don't come up.

At the end of the day, we don't know. It's possible that Figgins would have loved to play for the Twins, but they just didn't call, or they wouldn't offer enough money, or years. Maybe the Twins do actually believe in Danny Valencia (despite some evidence to the contrary), and don't want to block him with an expensive signing.

But at the same time, I'm torn. Is it promising that players might actually be considering more than money when it comes to signing long term contracts -- thus lending hope to the idea of a Mauer extension? Is it a bad sign that free agents might choose to avoid the Twins, for intangible reasons? Is it a bad sign that the Twins won't offer enough money to get key free agents, possibly sending a message to Mauer that they're not dedicated to building a great team around him? Is it a good sign that perhaps they're saving their money for Mauer's contract, and don't want to lock up money they may not have before they know about how much he'll cost?

The only thing I'm sure about is that it's a bad sign that I'm worrying so much.

What do you think?

More thoughts on the changing baseball economy

2009-12-03T00:00:00-08:00

I basically wrote about this earlier this afternoon, but Sheehan's article about salary arbitration this year is worth quoting:

These decisions, taken as a whole, reflect the evolution of a market. Not every team sees it the same way, but by and large, the industry is valuing experience less, valuing common talents less, and recognizing one of the first principles of performance analysis: talent in MLB isn't a bell curve, but the right edge of that curve, with a few tremendous talents, and then a large pool of similar ones. There's nothing special about Randy Winn or Jermaine Dye or Jon Garland, and what separates them from comparable players—experience—isn't something worth paying millions of marginal dollars for. The industry is getting smarter, and it's going to make for better baseball for all of us.

That's exactly right.

This isn't an issue of "stats vs scouts," which is apparently how my last article was viewed. This is simply the market for baseball players evolving due to a change in player evaluation in front offices.

Part of that change is certainly due to a difference in evaluation methods -- more teams are using statistical analysis to attempt to value both free agents and internal options. Another part of that change is probably economic: the guys signing the checks would rather their employees don't throw their money around as much as they have in the past.

But, as Sheehan points out, another part of it is that front offices are simply getting smarter. They've realized that there really are only a small handful of players worth committing a large amount of resources -- either in dollars, years, or roster spots. Beyond those few stars, everyone else in the majors (or, to a lesser extent, the high minors) is pretty close to equivalent. Why would you spend many millions of dollars on one when you can have another for half a million? It makes no sense.

Right now I think the front offices have swung too far in the opposite direction of their free-wheeling ways of yesteryear; this market, like any other, is operating like a pendulum on the way to equilibrium. But even still, the idea that this sort of analysis shows that "all free agents are basically worthless" is disingenuous at best; it smacks of sportswriter-like thinking, that "things were better back then," and is clearly in opposition of change, no matter how inevitable or beneficial.

Ultimately, I agree with Sheehan (on this). This is going to make baseball better for everyone.*

*Except, of course, for the aging veterans who are no longer the beneficiaries of foolish contracts -- but how much do you feel for those guys?

Just give Reusse the buyout

2009-12-03T00:00:00-08:00

Local curmudgeon Patrick Ruesse posted his annual "Turkey of the Year" column late last week, and it is a doozy. I was originally going to take the high road, but you know us kids, we get bored so I decided to call him out. He only has one point that I want to address, his labeling Joe Caas a "2009 Special Turkey Guest". I'll let Mr. Ruesse dig his own grave:

Joe Christensen. Gentleman Joe is a Star Tribune baseball writer and also the Twin Cities' leading advocate for OPS, a make-believe number that Bill James acolytes have embraced. How often must we say this, Joe? Runs scored and RBI mean something; OPS doesn't.

Um, yes it does Patrick. It means "on base percentage plus slugging percentage". I know this is beating a dead horse, but it must be done. OPS has been widely accepted for most of this decade as an excellent way to measure a hitter. Peter Gammons, possibly the oldest man alive, often quotes it for his pieces on ESPN. A network also know as the World Wide Leader in Sports. World Wide!!!

I can't imagine if someone tried to use WAR and VORP in front of Ruesse. He would do one of two things: Freak out, or make a terrible Star Trek joke. There are many advanced baseball metrics that even I think are a little much, but from a math standpoint OPS is just as simple as batting average. I am not sure what RBIs measure other than how many times a guy comes up with runners on. A hitter has no control over that. Unless you are playing with like 4 guys like you did in grade school and have "ghost runners" and you can drive yourself in.

Ruesse just needs to accept that baseball is a heavily statisticized sport, and we will continue to develop more advanced (and better) metrics to evaluate players and teams. He hasn't done this, and calling one of his co-workers a "turkey" because he has is just insane. Batshit crazy even. "'Get off my lawn!' journalism" at its finest.

GMs Join Bloggers in the Basement, Mainstream Sportswriters Remain Confused and Infuriated

2009-12-03T00:00:00-08:00

For the past two offseasons, all the agents (and especially Scott "Ass Face" Boras) have been shouting about collusion between the teams -- how else can you explain the fact that mid-30s veterans who were once getting 5/$75M deals have to choose between a 1/$3M deal and retirement? There's simply no other explanation!

As it turns out, of course, yes there is another explanation. And it's not "the economy," which is fun to use as a scapegoat,* but rather it's the fact that MLB front offices are hiring people who are willing to "think," or "use a computer," or other such things that we've been told are antithetical to the true essence of baseball.

* I was back in Minnesota for Thanksgiving, and my dad pointed out a tree in our neighbor's yard which appears to be dying. I blamed it on the economy. Thank you! I'm here all week!

Matthew Leach of MLB.com discusses it -- in very ownership-friendly terms, I might add, which is to be expected of anything posted on MLB.com -- quoting Brewers assistant GM Gord Ash:

It's a combination of things. Of course there are the general economic concerns, but there is also more data going around, like FIP [fielding-independent pitching statistics], and others that give you a better feel for a pitcher rather than the traditional wins and losses and ERA.

I suppose nobody should be surprised about this -- we're well passed the point where Wall Street analysts have abandoned a hunch and a handshake as a basis for their deals and moved to computer models. Baseball is big business too, and there's no reason these large companies shouldn't be taking advantage of whatever mode of analysis is a) the best, and b) currently available to them.

Increasingly, it seems that the only people still resisting the move to a more complete and quantifiable way of measuring and enjoying baseball are the sportswriters.* As Calcaterra notes:

compare [the quote from Gord Ash] to the aggressive dismissal of advanced metrics by the majority of your mainstream baseball writers and ask yourself if the statheads are really as out-of-touch as they're made out to be. If anything, the geeks and the game's movers and shakers are speaking the same language.

Well said.

* Also, the managers.

But this leaves me legitimately worried -- the Twins front office continues to be a bastion of old-fashioned thinking, having missed several previous new movements in baseball (including "striking batters out is good," "drawing walks is good," and "home runs are good") and continue to play the game like it's the 70s.* Thus far, there has been no indication that they're going to get on the "accurate player/value evaluation" boat any time soon.

* Oh, and also as if each team got to play several middle infielders at once. It remains important to have an abundance of utility infielders on your major league roster and throughout your minor league system, right? Additionally, I feel that it's worth pointing out that back in the 60s and 70s, the Twins were actually pretty forward-thinking when it came to "striking people out" and "hitting home runs." Too bad that all went away, right?

Is it time to start fearing that the Twins will start signing old, declining veterans to bloated, ill-advised contracts ... especially as those same veterans find it impossible to find such contracts in their former pastures? Maybe this isn't such a great time for the Twins to be boosting their revenue and payroll significantly.

Twins offer Pavano arbitration

2009-12-02T00:00:00-08:00

The deadline to offer arbitration to pending free agents was midnight last night. As expected the Twins offered it to Carl Pavano. Pavano is a Type B free agent, so if he decides to sign elsewhere the team will get a compensatory draft pick.

This move was a no brainer because if he accepts we have him for one year at a reasonable price, and if he doesn't we get the pick. Let's just hope Bill Smith doesn't sign him to some huge extension to prove to Mauer "we're building a winner here, and everyone knows Pavano is a winner". That would piss me off.

Polanco and Orlando Hudson were not offered arbitration so the Twins wouldn't have to forfeit a draft pick to sign them. Thus making them more appealing. I have always been a bigger Polanco fan than Hudson fan but either would give the Twins a huge boost, adding one of them plus JJ Hardy would turn the Twins middle infield from a huge liability to a strength. Not sure if I can handle that. I'm so used to the Twins having really crappy middle infielders, and I don't think Gardy would be happy if we had two GOOD ones.

The Indians Have Lost Their Sense of Identity

2009-12-02T00:00:00-08:00

Remember Jason Tyner? When the Twins had finally had enough of his "perfect Twin" hitting line,* they got rid of him. Since he, of course, sucked ... he couldn't find anyone willing to give him another job.** Then the Indians signed him to a minor league deal and assigned him to their AAA team.

* For newer readers of Fire Gardy, that's .300/.300/.300 -- ie, "they're a .300 hitter!" but with no plate discipline and no power.

The Indians were roundly praised for the move, and everyone said it demonstrated that the Indians valued more than just winning at the major league level -- they'd signed Tyner solely to help their minor league team win, to plug an obvious hole on the AAA club's roster. That this demonstrated a devotion to winning on an organization-wide level.

Well, they've continued along the same path.

The Indians have signed former Twins Brian Buscher, Luis Rodriguez, and Mike Gosling (who was a minor leaguer), all to minor league deals.

Maybe this is more of what they were lauded for with the Tyner move, and they're filling holes on the AAA club so their players "get used to winning" while they're in the minors. (The Twins organization does the same thing with their Elizabethton Twins, constantly bragging about the competitiveness of that short-season rookie league team, as if anyone in the world cares.)

Maybe, though, it indicates something more ... like the fact that the Indians' farm system is weak enough that Buscher/L-Rod/Gosling can actually fill holes for them at the AAA level. As you can probably guess, I don't think these are particularly strong baseball moves.

But if you want to know my real opinion, I think these moves truly are a continuation of the original Tyner move. And it's not something to be praised.

The Indians, like the Twins, are a small/mid market franchise, with a bottom-third payroll. They, like the Twins, have done a great job of collecting top shelf talent despite lacking the resources it normally takes to do that. For years, the Indians have been one of the model franchises -- in fact, I think they've done a better job than the Twins have of putting talent on the field.

And yet, the Twins have proved far more successful in this decade. The Indians are surely doing plenty of soul-searching trying to determine why. Maybe Eric Wedge was the reason -- so he's gone. Maybe the Twins have just been doing a better job of filling out the fringes of the roster with "winners," guys like Tyner, Buscher, and Rodriguez that the manager can trust* with the game on the line.

* Inexplicably, mind you.

I think these moves show that the Indians have lost their sense of direction, or perhaps their sense of identity as a franchise. And while I think that sucks for them ... it means that the Twins will probably continue to do (at least) slightly better than "contend" in the division for the foreseeable future.

**Oh ... and has anyone else noticed that basically every player the Twins let go can't find another major league job? That they all go to Japan or struggle to get a minor league deal? What does that say about the organization's roster construction and player valuation? Something ... bad, probably.

Payroll, Joe Mauer, and the 20% Myth

2009-12-02T00:00:00-08:00

I was reading LaVelle's blog this morning and there was a friendly discussion in the comments (that isn't sarcasm, the commenters were actually nice to each other unlike most comment wars on blogs) about whether or not its OK to spend 20% of your payroll on one person. Obviously it came up in regards to Joe Mauer. LaVelle mentioned in one of his comments that the "rule" started when the Indians didn't want to pay Manny 20% of their payroll so they let him walk to Boston.

I think if the Twins are willing to have their payroll in the 100 million dollar range, they can afford to pay Mauer 20-25 a year. I see no reason why the payroll cannot be $100 million. I'm sure there are some Twins fans who want to win the "Twins way" which is by spending no money, but we now have this fancy new stadium and are ready to play with the big boys. Minneapolis is by no means a "small market", small market has just become synonymous with "poor". We are one of the few metropolitan areas that has all four major sports. The others being: Chicago, Boston, New York, LA,Dallas, Denver, and Washington, DC. (Might have missed a few, but you get my point). The Twins used to be classified as a small market team because they got almost no revenue out of the dome, now they will have a cash cow in Target Field and should spend a good chunk of that money on Joe Mauer.

I know a ton of Twins fans take solace in the fact that when we lose its only because the Yankees spend more money. Well, they will always spend more money than us so they can continue to do so if it helps them sleep at night. I for one would be happier if we lost because our GM or manager made bad moves. You can fire them. You can't fire the owners. The best thing for an owner to do is open up their pocketbooks and let the baseball people work. If Bill Smith says he can win a world series with 80 million, then give him 80. If he says he needs 100 then give him 100.

So give Mauer 20% of our payroll, but we need our payroll to be north of 100 million to compete for a World Series title. That is regardless of whether or not Joe Mauer is on the team. It is just a reality of the game in this day and age.

Twins Around Town

2009-11-25T00:00:00-08:00

No, this isn't a post about random Joe Mauer sightings around Minneapolis, it is regarding the Twins to 50th aniversary campaign. Seems like a cool idea, very similar the the Peanuts campaign in Saint Paul a few years back.

I don't think the Twins need any extra advertising, especially with Target Field opening up, but it can't hurt. I think they should roll it out sooner, especially the statues from the Twins early years, so younger fans can take in a lot of Twins history before the 2010 season starts. Or they can just use wikipedia, whatever works.

Open Thread: Twins offseason

2009-11-24T00:00:00-08:00

Now that he has locked up the MVP, lets start discussing specifics of a possible Joe Mauer Contract extension, and any other offseason moves. This is the first time I've attempted anything like this so it probably won't work. In the comments section, leave you suggestion for what the Twins should be offering Mauer and any other musings you have in regards to offseason moves.

Remaining needs to be filled

A second or thirdbaseman

One or two mid rotation starters

some bullpen help.

In the comments let me know if you agree, or disagree, or have specific players in mind to fill these and any other holes. We are approaching the winter meetings, so lets give Bill Smith some suggestions.

Don't get too worked up about Mauer not being the unanimous MVP

2009-11-23T00:00:00-08:00

I've talked a good amount of shit about Dave Cameron and his Neyer-esque hatred of the Twins over the years, but he's not totally blind. When someone -- even a Twins player -- has an absolutely historic season and is far and away the obvious choice for MVP, he believes that person should, you know, win the MVP. Today he wondered how in the world someone voted for Miguel Cabrera for MVP over Mauer:

Seriously, there is no argument for a first place vote for Miguel Cabrera. Mauer’s team made the playoffs, beating out Cabrera’s team for the last spot. Mauer hit better. Mauer fielded better. Mauer played a more important position.

None of those facts are disputable. A vote for Cabrera being more valuable in 2009 is like a vote for the sum of two and two being five. It’s not an opinion – it’s a lack of understanding.

And as you all probably know, I agree with him. Personally, I debated putting Cabrera somewhere on my ballot, but I couldn't bring myself to do it; he was essentially the same player as Teixeira and Youkilis this year, and I had them at 9 & 10, respectively. I can easily see an argument for having him in the top 10 ... but I simply can't see how he can be #1 over Mauer, or Zobrist, or Jeter, or Greinke, or Longoria.

Of course, Cameron wasn't necessarily defending Mauer. Instead, he's taking up the torch in the ongoing battle between old media and new media:

So, writers who criticized Law for his vote and pointed to it as evidence that he’s screwing up the process, you are hereby required to do the same thing to the Cabrera voter. At least Keith had a reasonable explanation for his vote. There is no reasonable explanation for a Miguel Cabrera first place MVP vote. It’s just stupidity on display.

I like that battle as much as the next guy, I guess. But I don't think Keizo Konishi should lose his BBWAA voting rights because of this*, just like I don't think Keith Law should have lost his vote because he didn't go with the crowd on a particular vote.

* On the other hand, it's worth pointing out that Miguel Cabrera got a $200K bonus for getting that single first place vote. That's nothing for Cabrera and his $152M contract; it's a whole hell of a lot for some nearly-anonymous sportswriter that even Dave Cameron -- a Seattle-based blogger/fan -- has never heard of. If it turns out that that had anything to do with it, well, then Konishi should absolutely lose his vote. But there's no reason to suspect that right now.

So let's all just relax, and not get too worked up about the fact that Mauer got only 27 of 28 first place votes. The voters didn't blow this one.

2009 AL MVP Ballot

2009-11-23T00:00:00-08:00

My AL MVP ballot goes like this:

Mauer
Zobrist
Jeter
Greinke
Longoria
Pedroia
Verlander
Figgins
Teixeira
Youkilis

And that's what it is right now. Frankly, if you ask me again in an hour, it'll probably be different. (Ask me again in five minutes. It might be different then, too.) While I was trying to come up with this list, I had two conflicting wishes:

That there were only 4 spots on an MVP ballot, as I feel there's a huge gap in MVP-caliber-ness between Greinke and the next guy
That there were 15-20 spots on an MVP ballot, because the gap between #5 and #15 is barely discernable, and the order you put these guys in really just falls down to your predetermined biases

Joe Mauer, obviously, takes the top spot (really, the only important one). Everyone's rehashed this argument a thousand times. Suffice it to say that I think if you're the best defensive catcher in the league and the best hitter of any position in the league, then you are the MVP of the league. It seems to me that it'd take a pretty convoluted (and "interesting") definition of the word "valuable" to think otherwise.

After that, I thought Zobrist, Jeter, and Greinke were pretty close to each other. I leaned toward Zobrist because the defensive metrics say he was tremendous this year and I wasn't about to just ignore that; the same metrics said that Jeter was pretty good in the field, but not great. At the same time, Zobrist was a few runs better offensively than Jeter; given those two things, I don't see how you can make a case that Jeter was better without saying things like "But Jeter won the World Series in 2009!" or "But Jeter won the World Series in 1998!"* or some such non-individual things.

* People always complain that Jeter's never won an MVP, therefore he should win the MVP this time around. It's a cute thought, of course; it's also one that would never be thought about anyone other than The Great Captain Derek Dreamy Eyes Jeter. You want to know the reason Jeter's never won the MVP? Here's a hint: it's not because sportswriters went out of their way to screw him. It's because he was never the most valuable player in the league. So ... I don't get the logic that says he should get an undeserved MVP trophy now because he never got an undeserved MVP trophy in the past. The "lifetime achievement award" is called the Hall of Fame, and he'll get that later.

Anyway, I don't really feel like arguing about the rest of these guys. Teixeira had a bunch of RBI, but it was only because people were on base in front of him. His actual numbers are basically indistinguishable from other good first basemen: Kevin Youkilis, Miguel Cabrera, Kendry Morales, Justin Morneau (sans fractured spine). Put any one of those guys in the #3 spot in the Yankee lineup, and they'll get just as many RBI (give or take random fluctuation).

My only worry is that I'm penalizing Teixeira for the quality of this teammates, in an effort simply not to reward him. I don't think I am. It was something I thought about a lot. And wanting to avoid penalizing him while also including Youkilis (which emphasizes that they're basically the same) is the reason I didn't get to put Franklin Gutierrez on my ballot, which I really wanted to be able to do.

Oh well. We'll see how this thing goes.

Juan Morillo heads the way of the Lew Ford

2009-11-20T00:00:00-08:00

Juan Morillo and Justin Huber have both signed with the Hiroshima Carp of the Japanese League.

This isn't a very big loss. Morillo could throw really, really hard, but that's about it. During his time with the twins in 2009 he didn't show much progess in his ability to harness the fastball. It would have been nice to keep him around and see if the minor league instructors could work with him, but I'm glad the Twins didn't bend over backwards to keep him. That would have been foolish. But hey, the team is going to make at least one foolish decision this offseason, so here's to Bill Smith trying to keep them at a minimum.

Justin Huber was a very average player. He had a decent minor league track record, but no real position. He will probably have some success in Japan, due to the moderate power he flashed in the minors. I wish them both the best of luck overseas.

Taking a look at free agent starting pitchers

2009-11-19T00:00:00-08:00

The Twins' starting rotation was one of the weaknesses of the team in 2009. For the five spots in the 2010 rotation, they currently have these players available:

Baker
Slowey
Blackburn
Perkins
Liriano
Bonser
Swarzak
... and maybe some crappy fill-in guys from AAA

That last bit was supposed to be kind of funny ... except that it followed "Perkins, Liriano, Bonser, and Swarzak," who just so happen to also be crappy fill-in guys from AAA. I think it's fair to say that the Twins could use another starter (or two).

Given that the top pitchers on the market invariably get huge deals from desperate teams with lots of money who mistakenly think that pitchers will get better if you pay them more money, I'm going to go ahead and count the Twins out of the Lackey sweepstakes. And I don't view that as a big problem.

I think we should take a look at some of the free agent possibilities this year. I've decided to break the potential candidates down into a few different categories; my opinion on the value of each category differs from the Twins' organizational opinions ... don't worry, I'll try to explain.

High upside injury risks

Ben Sheets
Rich Harden
Erik Bedard
Justin Duchscherer
Carl Pavano

League average "innings eaters"

Jon Garland
Jason Marquis
Joel Pineiro

Pieces of shit

Daniel Cabrera
Brett Myers
Brad Penny
Jarrod Washburn

First, I'd like to address the "pieces of shit" part of the market. For one thing, there are a lot of them; I've only included a few of the "more interesting" ones here. I'm going to file guys like Sidney Ponson and Adam Eaton in the "I sure hope the Twins know better" file,* and just move on.

* Yes, I know they don't know better. Just leave it alone. Know this, though: if they do sign somebody idiotic, I'm going to fly off the handle, and it'll probably be a spectacle. So if you come here hoping to read one of my angry screeds, the Twins just might do something such that you'll stop being disappointed. I'm just warning you.

Daniel Cabrera used to be a highly touted prospect, and still has a big arm and great stuff. He's just spent the last 7 years totally collapsing; his ERA+ "peaked" at 96 in 2005-2006, and has been on a fairly steady decline since then. But he still throws a fastball in the mid-90's with good movement, and should be available for a song. The Twins might even be able to stash him in the minors to start the season. I think it might be worth a shot, to see if anybody in the Twins organization can fix this guy. But since it's not likely, it's worth pointing out that he should absolutely not be counted on for anything (except an ERA north of 5).

I'm calling Myers and Penny "pieces of shit" here, when in reality they're not terrible pitchers. The thing is ... Myers beats his wife and gets in bar fights and gets arrested and throws his (superior) teammates under the bus and is generally regarded as a big douchebag. And he's not that great. The whole package? Kind of a piece of shit ... and really not the kind of guy I'd expect the Twins to go after. Penny throws hard and has talent, but at the same time he got shelled in his brief stint in the AL in 2009, and when he was released he basically had the option to go to any team; most players say stuff like "I want a chance to win," or some other such lip service to what old men like to hear player say. Instead, he said "I don't want to be in a pennant race because of the pressure, and I don't want to be in the AL because the hitters are better." So, in response, I say this to Brad Penny: Fuck off. A contender in the AL, like the Twins, shouldn't touch this guy with a twelve foot clown pole.

There's been a lot of talk this offseason about Washburn coming to the Twins; after all, he's left handed, he's from Wisconsin, he'd love to play for the Twins, so it's fucking perfect. Well, here's the deal, folks:

He started last season in Seattle, where they had a historically great outfield defense
He's a flyball pitcher, and that defense turned a huge percentage of those fly balls into outs
He got lucky, and gave up the fewest HR/9 in his career (0.7) in that half-season in Seattle
Because of those three things, he put up a mirage 2.64 ERA in the first half of the year
He then moved to the Tigers
He faced better hitters, and there was the pressure of a playoff race (for those of you who care about such things)
His outfield defense was merely good, as opposed to one of the best ever assembled
He got less lucky (2.5 HR/9)
He put up a 7.33 ERA

Now, look. I do think he got unlucky in Detroit, and according to him, he was injured the whole time. (See, he is just like Perkins!) On the other hand, we don't know how Target Field is going to play -- it could be a pitcher's park, or it could be a band box, we just don't know. But it wouldn't be wise to bring in a guy who can only succeed in a cavernous stadium. On the other, larger hand, the Twins' outfield defense this year doesn't figure to be very good. Wait, I don't need to sugar-coat this ... the Twins' outfield defense in 2010 stands to be one of the worst in the league, again. Frankly, Denard Span is not a good defensive CF. Michael Cuddyer is not a good defensive RF. (I think his defensive numbers paint a too-gloomy picture, but that doesn't mean I'm high on his defense.) Delmon Young is absolutely atrocious out there, one of the worst in the league, capable of turning outs into singles, singles into triples, doubles into home runs ... wins into losses. That is not the outfield you want if you're going to bring in a flyball pitcher. His 7.33 ERA in Detroit ... well, with the Twins, he might be lucky to repeat numbers that low. For the Twins, Washburn would be a piece of shit. And an expensive one, at that.

I don't really want to talk too much about those innings eaters -- they're boring, they'll fit in fine in the 3/4 spots in the rotation, and they'll probably get contracts just out of the Twins' budget, because most teams fill out their rotation with $12M/year veterans rather than $0.4M/year pre-arbitration guys like the Twins do. If they sign one of those guys, good for them, nobody gets fired for bringing in an innings eater to help out the youngsters -- it's just not going to put anyone over the top or anything.

And now that I've wasted all my breath talking about what the Twins should not do, we get to the interesting and fun part: the high upside guys!

Sheets and Harden figure to be the most fascinating starters on the market: both of them are more than capable of putting up a +4 win season and being a viable 1/2 starter in a rotation ... if they're healthy. Bedard could do the same, except he's even less likely to stay healthy, which is saying a lot.

Since Sheets missed all of 2009 and Harden broke down badly towards the end of the season, it's likely that neither of them will be able to demand big contracts this year, even in a thin free agent market. If the Twins can get their hands on either one of them for a 1-2 year contract in the $8M/year range, it's a deal they simply have to jump on. More than that, though, and the risk is probably too great. It's possible that some foolish team lavishes riches on these guys, so you can't necessarily consider it a failure if the Twins don't bring them into the fold; but Bill Smith had better be using some rollover minutes talking to their agents.

I put Pavano on the injury risk list, largely because nobody really trusts him to stay healthy on any sort of long contract. That lack of trust may or may not be warranted -- but the Twins benefited greatly from Pavano's work in the second half of 2009, and he apparently really enjoyed pitching for the Twins and would like to come back. That'd be a good idea for the Twins, who don't have much of a rotation without him. If he'd accept a 2 year deal for $10-15M to stick around, it'd almost certainly be worth it. I don't know if he would, though: in the three seasons he's been healthy enough to play, he's been a 3.4-4.4 win starter, which would be worth over $15M a season. (The risk, of course, is that in the 5 seasons he's been too injured to play, he's been a 0.0-0.8 win pitcher, and that's not someone the Twins can afford to be paying big dollars.)

Pavano doesn't have the upside of Sheets, Harden, or even Bedard. But he's probably less of a health concern and the Twins have the inside track to signing him (which is probably not true of the other guys).

I'd say the Twins need one of the high upside guys on this list, and it barely matters which one. I'd stay away from the rest of the market, unless one of the innings eaters comes really, really cheap. And as for the pieces of shit? Well, Terry Ryan is still Smith's senior advisor, and I'm sure he's pushing hard for guys like Braden Looper, Vicente Padilla, Eric Milton, and Livan Hernandez. The real test is whether Bill Smith can resist.

Perkins Drops Grievance, Sets Up Possible Trade

2009-11-12T00:00:00-08:00

A lot of people will probably call this a small piece of news, but I disagree. Glen Perkins has dropped his grievance against the Twins:

Glen Perkins has dropped his grievance against the Twins as the sides reached a settlement this week, avoiding a hearing that was scheduled for Friday in New York.

He was pissed off at the Twins for optioning his contract to the minors rather than sending him on a rehab assignment after activating him from the DL at the end of August. He'd been on pace to become a Super-2 player and become arbitration eligible this offseason, but the Twins' move pushed back his arbitration eligibility a full year.

First of all, teams do this all the time to save money; and it's been happening more and more often as front offices are getting savvier and are trying to do a better job of controlling costs and keeping their young players cheap (and around) as long as possible. On the other hand, players are understandably irked when it happens -- it's essentially a billionaire owner screwing a young guy out of several hundred thousand dollars (which is nothing to the billionaire, but is a massive pay increase for the player, often more than 100%). Neither side is right when it comes to this stuff, as I see it.

But with Perkins, things are a little different. Perkins has repeatedly complained of injury during his time with the Twins -- but only immediately after a bad performance. (Before those starts he said he felt fine, and after he lays the egg he claims to have been injured all along. Each time, this is news to the Twins' training staff.) The Twins have repeatedly had him checked out, and doctors can't find anything wrong with him -- Perkins then demands a second opinion and the team has to fly him around the country for other doctors to see if the Twins' doctors are wrong. They usually don't find anything either.

Meanwhile, Perkins is not pitching for the team; when he does, he pitches badly, for the most part. But the biggest problem with this back and forth is the building animosity between Perkins and the Twins; Gardy has voiced his frustration with Perkins in the past, usually after Perkins blames his performance on a previously-unknown injury. Not surprisingly, Perkins has quietly been on the trading block for several months (or more).

But it's awfully hard to trade a guy who has a currently-open grievance against his team. It signals potential trade partners that the team and the player want to split up -- and thus lowers his trade value.*

* And Perkins' trade value probably isn't very high as is, given his performance. The only thing he has going for him is that he's cheap during a time when teams are trying to save money. And he's left handed.

That's why this move is significant: the Twins somehow* convinced Perkins to drop the grievance, giving him some extra service time but keeping him under Super-2 status, which completely removes the artificial anchor to his trade value.

* My guess? They kicked some money to him under the table in return for dropping the grievance so he can be traded more easily. If I were running the team and another GM told me he'd be willing to trade me something decent for Perkins if not for the grievance, this is exactly what I'd do.

So don't be surprised to see Perkins moved to another team, and possibly soon. We'll try to keep you posted.

Sizing up the infield market

2009-11-11T00:00:00-08:00

The Fanhouse GM meetings update states that the Reds are having money woes and will need to shed a ton of payroll. One of the trade candidates is Brandon Phillips. I'm sure the price would be high to get him, since the Reds need cheap players who will be under team control for a long time. These are the Twins favorite type of players. Phillips is set to make around 7 million next season, which is a bargain considering the power he has out of the second base position. I know a lot of people have been mentioning Polancoas a candidate to play second base, and he is a very nice player. However, if we can get Brandon Phillips for someone like Glen Perkins I think we should do it. He is a very complete player, he was a 20-20 guy last year. His on-base skills leave something to be desired, his career OBP is .312. Not good. At all. So when we are deciding between Polanco and Phillips you are basically choosing power or OBP. I'd be happy with either, and adding Polanco gives us a nice #2 hitter, whereas Phillips is better suited further down in the order. The problem with going after these two guys is it leaves us with Punto at third, and if its Phillips, no clear #2 hitter.

The thirdbase market consists basically of Chone Figgins and Adrian Beltre. Both will probably be very expensive, with Beltre probably getting more because he is a power hitter and everyone overpays for homers. If I was running the show I would go after Figgins. I think Gardy would like him since he is scrappy and doesn't hit for power, like Punto, but unlike Punto he is, you know, good. Man, how good would that career 363 OBP look between Span and Mauer? Gardy would get his way, having fast guys at the top of the lineup, but those fast guys would also have high OBPs. I think the main reason I want Figgins is because it would make the lineup Gardy-proof. Span-Figgins-Mauer-Morneau-Cuddyer-Kubel-Hardy-Young-Punto. Not too shabby and there is really no other way to construct it, except maybe flip-flop Cuddyer and Kubel.

I really hope that Smith and his brain trust aren't content with Punto as a starting infielder and do the due diligence on ones that are available either through free agency or a trade. The two most glaring holes are obviously second and third base, and I think we need to fill one of them, with Punto playing the other.

Revenue/Payroll Reinvestment is the Thing to Watch

2009-11-10T00:00:00-08:00

When asked about the size of the Twins' payroll, Terry Ryan and Bill Smith have always said that it's simply a function of revenue -- that the team will always spend right around 52% of revenue on the major league payroll. It's a good excuse for keeping the payroll low; "we don't have enough money" is something that seems to resonate with both fans and sportswriters.

But is it true? Khoi Vinh, a Yankees fan, did some research on this very topic in the interest of defending the Yankees* against those who would say they only won the World Series because they have the most money.

* Personally, I don't think that's necessary at all. And doesn't the fact that this is what everyone's talking about kind of tarnish their championship celebration? I'm sure the media and the Yankees themselves would have found some other way to tarnish it, but still. Let's all get over the fact that they have the most money. We knew it before they won another World Series, and we know it's going to continue. It's just reality, folks.

What he came up with was a table comparing 2008 revenue to 2009 payroll, and compared them to get an "investment rate" in the team's payroll. The Yankees' investment rate was 4th, at 54%. The Tigers led the league with a 62% investment rate.* And the Twins? Well, the Twins were in the bottom third of the league, with a paltry 41% investment rate.

Given the numbers Vinh cites, the Twins should have had an $82M payroll in 2009 rather than $65M, based solely on their revenue and their claimed level of reinvestment in the team.

* Does anyone else think the Tigers are setting themselves up for some financial trouble in the near future? I mean, they're in Detroit. How is their revenue not going to continue to drop? I'm guessing all those big long-term contracts are causing some ulcers in the front office right now.

It's worth noting, of course, that the Twins' 2008 revenues were the 4th lowest in the league, ahead of only the Marlins, Pirates, and Royals. So while it's certainly easy to accuse them of not spending a large enough percentage of their payroll, they're not exactly wrong that they simply lack the funds of other franchises.

The revenues probably went up in 2009, as they sold out an inordinately high number of games, took down the curtain to open up several thousand extra seats and sold those out, and played an extra home game with the curtain down. Additionally, revenue will certainly increase with the new stadium, as people rush to see the place, and season ticket sales climb, and (perhaps most importantly) the Twins actually get a reasonable share of the revenue from the Dome.

(I've written before about the Twins' deal with the Metrodome. Basically, it's the only stadium deal in professional sports that is not set up for the team to continually siphon off extra money from the municipality, instead allowing the local government to siphon money from the team. Minneapolis and Minnesota have received over $100M of free money from the Twins since the Dome was built. In all other stadium situations, that flow of money is reversed. I'm guessing that Target Field will be more common, so in addition to generating more revenue overall, a larger percentage of that money will find its way to the Twins.)

They could probably also use a more lucrative cable deal, which is increasingly one of the things that sets apart the large-revenue teams.

But the thing to watch, as the Twins move into Target Field next year, is not only the revenue increases, but also the level of investment in the team -- if the percentage remains as low as it currently is, the increased revenues from the new stadium will simply go as profits, and will not help the team's competitiveness as much as they should.

Monday Morning Update

2009-11-09T00:00:00-08:00

While perusing the Twins section of the startribune website this morning, I came across Joe C's Twins offseason to-do list. I glanced over it and it made sense to me. Extend Mauer's contract, find someone to play third, etc. All pretty standard stuff. Then I noticed what #2 said:

2Explore trades for an ace, such as Josh Johnson or Roy Halladay.

Roy Halladay? The same guy who nobody was able to trade for last summer due to JP Riccardi's incompetence. I can kind of understand Josh Johnson because he plays for the Marlins and will soon be making more than league minimum, therefore there is no place for him in Miami. But Halladay? Are we just throwing names of good pitchers out there? Very unlike Joe C to petition for the Twins to make a fantasy baseball type move.

In other somewhat related news, the Phillies have declined Pedro Feliz's option. I haven't done a ton of research on him, but does anyone think he might be a decent option for a year or two? His hitting line doesn't jump out at me, and he is middle of the pack defensively. Both of those things are better than most of what we have had at third over the years. Obviously I'm not saying lets go out and sign him today, but rather let's add him to the list of possibilities. Which is pretty short at this point. If one of the options is re-sign Joe Crede and his impressive injury history, you know its slim pickings.

The JJ Hardy trade has been sufficiently covered by pretty much everyone in our blogroll, and by us. Get up to date here and here

First Update from the GM Meetings: Gabino, Morillo, Huber

2009-11-09T00:00:00-08:00

Joe Christensen just brought us an update from the GM meetings in Chicago,* noting that we've lost Armando Gabino to the Orioles on waivers, that we've placed Juan Morillo on the 40 man roster, and that Justin Huber cleared waivers and is on his way back to Rochester.

* Before I say anything about these moves, I just want to point out that I really would have liked to try to crash these meetings, and was hoping I could figure out where they were happening and maybe sneak in. Could have been fun. Except, as it turns out, they're holding the meetings at O'Hare airport, which is absurdly far out of my way and is very, very inconvenient. Couldn't they have gotten a hotel downtown? Is the economy really that bad? Oh well, I guess I'll just be reporting on the GM meetings from afar, as usual.

First, the Gabino news. He was a mid-level prospect for us the last few years, posting acceptable strikeout rates (consistently around 6.5 K/9 throughout the minors) and low walk rates (2.8 BB/9 in the minors). Basically, he's exactly the sort of strike throwing machine who can't strike very many people out that the Twins ostensibly value highly. His problem, though, within the organization is that he'll be entering his age-26 year, and thus is no longer really a prospect with a huge amount of upside; compound that with the fact that he's the same age as (or older than) the other pitchers in our rotation -- who happen to be the same type of pitcher but more talented than Gabino -- and it's pretty clear he has no place in the future of the organization.

Add to that the fact that Gardy apparently hates his guts, and it's really no surprise he's gone. He was called up this year because the team was woefully short of pitchers -- and Gardy let him into one game as a reliever and one game as a spot starter, before letting him rot in the bullpen for the rest of the season, refusing to call on him regardless of how badly Keppel and the others were ruining the game. And if there's one thing we know about the Twins, it's that if Gardenhire doesn't like you, you're going to ride the bench until you're off the team.

Gabino is not a big loss.

Morillo, of course, continues to be interesting. He posted an excellent 11.7 K/9 this year at AAA, but still can't harness his blazing fastball as he also posted an abysmal 6.9 BB/9. Apparently the Twins still think they can do something with him, because they've decided to protect him from the Rule 5 draft by putting him on the 40-man roster. Either that, or they're simply astounded by the speed of his fastball, the likes of which the Twins have probably never seen before.

If Morillo winds up playing a significant role in the Twins' bullpen this year without demonstrating increased command in the minors, it means the Twins are in trouble.

Huber was another guy who Gardy simply didn't care for; despite posting a reasonably impressive .273/.356/.482 line in AAA, with 22 HR, 22 2B, and an 84/51 K/BB ratio in 506 PA, Gardy apparently couldn't find more than two plate appearances for the 2B/3B in over a month of service time. I will point out, of course, that Gardy found plenty of work for Matt Tolbert at both of those positions. Once again, September call-ups just meant that Gardy's doghouse gets bigger.

Normally I'd be a little bit surprised that nobody decided to take a flier on Huber, but this isn't a normal time. We haven't seen what to expect from the free agent market this year -- it's possible that prices will be severely dampened by the effects of the economy on baseball teams (most of whose owners simply have no money beyond the massive loans that allow them to call themselves wealthy), and by the glut of free agents on the market. This situation could well be exacerbated by Buster Olney's prediction that up to dozens of talented arbitration-eligible players will simply be non-tendered rather than offered a contract, further increasing supply in a demand-starved market.

As a result, teams probably wanted to see what happens, as there will presumably be plenty of available players who are simply better than Huber. Perhaps the Twins will be watching, waiting for such an option to pounce on.

Yes, I'm still alive

2009-11-08T00:00:00-08:00

Well, I haven't posted anything since the Twins season ended, and a lot has with the Twins since then. Sirsean has covered most of it, but I'll give you my analysis.

Earlier this week the Twins traded defensive specialist Carlos Gomez to the Brewers for power-hitting shortstop JJ Hardy. When you say it like that, it sounds as though the Twins got a steal of a deal. Hardy is coming off a career worst season, and spent time in the minors last year. This benefits the Twins because he remains under team control for one additional year. I've always been a big JJ Hardy fan and hoped the Twins would make this move at some point. I assumed we would have to give up pitching, which you always hate to do. However, the Twins have a ton of back of the rotation type starters so I wouldn't have had a problem with them shipping someone like Perkins to the Brewers. So when I heard that we gave up just Gomez I was thrilled. Gomez is an elite defensive centerfielder, and with our flyball pitching staff he was quite the asset. Hardy has shown he can be a good hitter at the major league level, so hopefully his 2009 season was just a fluke.
I'm cool with exercising Cuddyer's option. Nyer can suck it.
There are still a few items left of the offseason checklist. I think we need to address one of second or third base. Possibly re-sign Pavano or someone similar. I don't want to trade Joe Nathan, so we won't be doing that.
I hope to get an offseason goals post up sometime this week.

Calcaterra, Rosenthal Understand Twins' Reasoning

2009-11-08T00:00:00-08:00

Craig Calcaterra links to Ken Rosenthal's take on the Twins' moves this week, explaining:

Rosenthal thinks that the Twins' moves thus far -- trading for Hardy; exercising Michael Cuddyer's option -- are all a part of the plan to get Mauer locked up long-term. They were probably the right moves independent of that, but I tend to agree that the Twins are doing what they can to make sure Mauer can't play the only non-monetary get-out-of-Minnesota card at his disposal, and that's claiming that the Twins aren't committed to winning.

I agree completely with Calcaterra here, and this is part of what I've been trying to say about these moves the past few days.

While Calcaterra unabashedly hates the Twins,* his Twins-related analysis is, as usual, quite even-handed.

* He's a Braves fan, and hasn't forgiven us for winning in 1991. I'm pretty sure you can't fault him for that. At least, I don't.

Hopefully these Mauer-wooing moves successfully woo Mauer.

What They're Saying: The Hardy Trade

2009-11-07T00:00:00-08:00

Apparently we here at Fire Gardy weren't the only people who were interested in and excited by the Hardy trade: 379 people came to visit this blog yesterday, which is a huge number for us and is the second most* of any single day in Fire Gardy history. Normally, we only get about 25-50 visits in a day. An increase like that is probably why Fangraphs went down minutes after the trade was announced! Great showing, Twins fans!

* The most ever was 700, which happened within the first couple of weeks of the blog's birth. It only happened because Gleeman linked to us, saying essentially "I don't like these guys." Thanks, Gleeman. If there's anything that'll keep a young blog going, it's the local titan giving compliments like that.

So I want to say thank you to everyone who visited yesterday, and we hope to see you around here again.

Meanwhile, given that there hasn't been much news of note since the big deal went down, I figured it'd be worthwhile to go around the league and see what people are saying about the trade.

Dave Cameron over at Fangraphs:

Big thumbs up to the Twins here, who got better in a hurry. The Brewers had their hands tied a bit due to the logjam at SS, but it’s still hard to imagine this is the best they could do.

Christina Kahrl at Baseball Prospectus:

It's way too early to talk about the best trade of the winter, but this one looks very good as an answer for immediate needs for a team whose core is already in place, and from an executive who's quickly moving from non-descript organizational guy to an operator who isn't going to let the Mauer/Morneau years slide by.

According to Tony Massarotti at Boston.com, the Red Sox were trying to get Hardy too:

Milwaukee wanted either starter Clay Buchholz or reliever Daniel Bard for Hardy. The Sox were not willing to offer either pitcher. Milwaukee was not interested in righthander Michael Bowden, whom the Sox would have been willing to part with, and the Sox did not have a center field prospect who could match Gomez’s skill set.

Could it be that the Twins just benefited from the Red Sox's penchant for only doing deals that are landslides in their favor? Or is Smith getting more respect around the league, such that he can actually start making respectable deals? Either way, it feels good to beat the Red Sox. (Also, this indicates that there was no god damned way we were getting Hardy for Perkins.)

Evan Brunell at The Hardball Times:

For Minnesota, that's a tremendous value coupled with his defense: the Twins will boast one of the top shortstops in the league and have him under control through his age 28 year.

Rob Neyer:

And of course you have to love this deal for the Twins, who got a player they really wanted (for good reason) in exchange for a guy they didn't really want at all. That said, unless they get another outfielder, this move means more playing time for Delmon Young, and it's not at all clear that that's a good thing. And if anything should happen to Michael Cuddyer ...

Of course, Neyer would be the only person to openly criticize the Twins for not carrying four starting-caliber outfielders at once. Unless he thinks 4th outfielders are irreplaceable, for some reason.

Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors:

Hardy is a huge addition for the Twins, who entered the offseason needing upgrades at shorstop, third base, and second base. Due to an August demotion by the Brewers, Hardy is under team control for 2010 and 2011 (Hardy says there are "no hard feelings.") He slumped offensively this year, but maintained his strong defense.

Aaron Gleeman:

In isolation swapping Hardy for Gomez is a quality move for the Twins, but the trade is not without risk given Hardy's problems this season and comes with some potentially negative ramifications. If it turns out that Span simply isn't a very good center fielder or Young fails to step forward offensively the Twins will have downgraded the outfield and upgraded the infield using $5 million of precious payroll room. Still, the front office deserves credit for getting good value for Gomez and I'm cautiously optimistic.

I believe Gleeman was "cautiously optimistic" that the Twins were going to the playoffs after winning Game 163.

Erin at Plunking Gomez, whose blog's name either needs to change now, or can become increasingly delightful as the months progress:

This also means that the Twins won't be bringing Orlando Cabrera back. Not gonna lie: that makes me a little sad. I liked O-Cab, even though he couldn't really field the position anymore, and he didn't get on base very much, either. I would much rather have Hardy at short, since he's younger and cheaper and better in almost every way, but I feel a little bad that O-Cab (and his family!) will have to find his fifth new home in three seasons. Gosh, what a sucky day for Alexi Casilla, too. His best friend gets traded and now his mentor probably won't be back, either.

Nick Nelson, whose blog was recently added to Neyer's Sweetspot network:

My initial reaction is that I'm very sorry to see Gomez go, as he was a personal favorite, and I'm very concerned about the team's outfield defense over the next few seasons. But perhaps the writing was on the wall during a month of September in which the Twins were making a fierce charge and Gomez was seeing virtually no playing time.

The last couple show that there's really more to this trade than the numbers. None of us here are actually running this team; the wins feel good and we all want to contend, but our true investment is in the players. Gomez was well-liked all across Twins Territory, despite not actually being a very good baseball player.

There are still plenty of players Twins fans are invested in, and I've never heard anything bad said about Hardy, and there's still a pipeline of young talent coming up. So there's nothing, really, to worry about from that perspective.

But I have this feeling that a whole lot of Twins fans will be watching what Gomez does for the Brewers, and hoping he does well. I'm pretty sure I'll be one of them.

Twins Predictably Pick Up Cuddyer's Option, Neyer Predictably Calls It Stupid

2009-11-07T00:00:00-08:00

This morning, the Twins announced that they've picked up Cuddyer's option for 2011, and will be paying him $10.5M; so Cuddyer will be on the team for the next two years. While it seems weird to me that his contract required the Twins to decide on his 2011 option within 5 days of the end of the 2009 World Series, it's not at all surprising that they picked it up. Given the reality of his contract, the Gomez trade virtually assured that the Twins would keep Cuddyer around.

As I quoted this morning, Rob Neyer's take on the Gomez trade was that it was a mistake because the Twins need four outfielders in case Cuddyer gets injured.

So how does Neyer feel about the Twins keeping Cuddyer?

For a franchise that routinely cries poor, $10.5 million is a decent chunk of change. Particularly for a player like Michael Cuddyer.

He then admits that Cuddyer was worth roughly that much in two of the last three years, before pointing out that by the time 2011 rolls around, Cuddyer is surely destined to be half the player he is today -- after all, that's what happens when a baseball player turns 32.

That airtight logic leads to this conclusion:

No, the difference between Cuddyer's salary and his value is not a great deal of money. But the Twins have a history of overspending on decent players while complaining about the high price of truly great players. Remember, it was just a year ago that they couldn't afford Johan Santana but quite happily blew $9 million on Craig Monroe and Livan Hernandez. And if they're not able to keep Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer in the long term, their money mismanagement is simply going to drop them from contention.

Firstly, I don't see how the $9M the Twins spent on Monroe and Livan prevented them from spending $120M+ to keep Santana. Secondly, Morneau already has a long term contract, and will be with the team through (at least) 2013. Thirdly, passing on Cuddyer's option would have been enough for Mauer to forget about signing with the Twins; players want to be on a team with other good players, and Mauer has basically said as much already.

But perhaps most importantly, I just don't understand how Neyer thinks it was foolish for the Twins to lose Gomez because they need four outfielders, and thinks it was foolish for the Twins to keep Cuddyer because they'd be better off with fewer than three.

The non-Cuddyer RF options for the Twins would have been:

Jermaine Dye (36 year old Type A free agent)
Vladimir Guerrero (35 year old Type A free agent)
Austin Kearns (30 year old not-event-Type-B piece of crap)
Xavier Nady (31 years old and not as good as Cuddyer)
Eric Hinske (32 years old and worse than both Kubel and Cuddyer both offensively and defensively)
Or an internal option like the replacement-level Jason Pridie or the probably-not-ready Rene Tosoni

Or they could switch Delmon Young to RF and go for an LF:

Garret Anderson (38 years old)
Jason Bay (31 year old Type A free agent)
Marlon Byrd (32 years old and probably very expensive)
Johnny Damon (36 year old Type A free agent, and expensive)
Matt Holliday (30 year old Type A free agent who's demanding a Teixeira-sized deal)
Wily Mo Pena (28 year old former-prospect who once had the potential to be a Cuddyer-like player, but never panned out)
Gary Sheffield (41 year old malcontent who can't really play any more)
The same Pridie/Tosoni options as before

Does anyone really think the Twins would have been better served by sending a message to Cuddyer that they don't want him around and to Mauer that they're not dedicated to putting a team together around him, and by giving up a first round pick to spend more money on an older player who's already been showing signs of age-related decline?

It's easy to say that spending $10M on Cuddyer is a foolish thing to do, and that therefore the Twins aren't allowed to complain about not having enough money to sign elite-level players. But when the actual alternatives are giving up a top draft pick for the right to spend more money on an older player who's essentially the same as Cuddyer, is the criticism really valid?

Once again, Neyer's Twins-related analysis leaves a whole lot to be desired.

Making a Deal: Twins Trade Gomez for Hardy

2009-11-06T00:00:00-08:00

Holy crap, folks.

According to a tweet from the Brewers*, the Twins have traded Carlos Gomez to the Brewers for JJ Hardy.

* Confirmed by both Aaron Gleeman and Joe Christensen

I'm going to let that sink in for a second.

Yes, Wild Bill Smith has done some more dealing. He just unloaded one of the last (disappointing) pieces we got from the Mets for Johan Santana ... for a promising shortstop entering his prime years (he'll be 27 in 2010).

Gomez and Hardy are both coming off down years in 2009; before this season, Hardy was widely viewed as an upcoming star in the game, posting WAR totals of +4.5 and +4.9 (All Star caliber totals) before crashing to +1.4 wins in an injury-plagued 2009 season. Gomez, meanwhile, played himself out of the Twins' outfield by posting a typically terrible offensive line accompanied by a significant step back in terms of his defense.

This move helps the Brewers shed some salary, as Hardy is entering his third year of arbitration and is probably set to make around $6-7M this season. The Twins, moving into their new stadium, are in position to add some payroll, and this is a strong move that does that while helping the team considerably.

The shortstop question is answered, loudly, for 2010 ... and there's no reason the Twins can't ink Hardy to a long term extension midseason if they like the cut of his jib. Or get draft picks as compensation if he leaves as a free agent -- Hardy is probably set to be at least a Type B free agent. A big year would make him a Type A. But given the dearth of quality middle infield options in the upper levels of the Twins' system, I'd say an extension is more likely.

Meanwhile, the Twins have sacrificed some excellent CF defense by losing Gomez -- and, importantly, some excellent corner-OF defense by having to move Span to a permanent position in CF. Span is a mediocre defensive CF and an elite defensive RF; this move promises more playing time to Delmon Young in LF,* and removes elite defense from both Gomez and Span.

* Unless Gardy finally switches Young and Cuddyer now that the baggy is no longer a consideration?

At the same time, the offense is set to look a whole lot better with this acquisition. Hardy is solid defensively, and has the potential to be a top offensive performer from the shortstop position. He doesn't have much in the way of plate discipline, but does have some good pop in his bat. I can see Gardy sliding him into the 2-hole, where he'd be a better option than everyone but Mauer, or to shore up the bottom of the lineup.

All in all, I think this is a fantastic move for the Twins. It's definitely a win-now move, too, which presumably will send a message to Joe Mauer and to prospective free agents that the Twins aren't playing around.

The Twins White Elephant Contract?

2009-11-05T00:00:00-08:00

I can't believe I missed this, but a little while back Fangraphs posted an article about a White Elephant Contract Party ... and I think it's worth a visit. A mental visit, that is. Feel free to click the link and make it an internet visit too, I don't care.

Here's the concept: Every team has a bad contract, right? And every GM takes flak for that bad contract. So every GM takes their bad contract and they go into a room and put all those contracts into a big pile. They then begin pulling contracts out, one at a time, in some order. Each GM that pulls a contract either has to take that contract or attempt to trade it -- if another GM is willing to make a trade.

Setting aside, for a moment, the fact that the only GM in the league that would agree to something like that is JP Ricciardi,* let's imagine what it'd be like if it actually happened.

* What do you mean, he's not a GM any more? How long have I been gone?

Firstly, let's go through a mental exercise. Who's got the worst contract on the Twins? I figure there are a couple ways to look at this: Who has the biggest contract (which are the ones you least want)? versus Who is the worst player (which are the ones you least want)?

Biggest contracts:

Morneau
Mauer
Nathan
Cuddyer
Kubel
Punto

Worst players:

Casilla
Young
Harris
Tolbert
Redmond
Buscher

Okay. Well, that really didn't help. The players with the biggest contracts are (almost) all of our best players; if we put any of those contracts into the middle of the table, our reward would be watching one of the other GMs doing an extended -- and presumably obnoxious -- happy dance. And the crappiest players on the team all have small contracts; Redmond and Buscher are already as good as gone, and Young is the only one remaining on the list that makes more than the minimum.

Before the 2009 season, I'm sure a lot of people would have said that Cuddyer's contract would definitely be the Twins' white elephant contract; in fact, I had to defend Cuddyer and his contract earlier this year when it was singled out as one of the worst in the game. I don't think many people are clamoring to get rid of Cuddyer at any cost after his 130 OPS+ season.

Similarly, I'm sure Punto would get some support for worst contract. How can Punto be making more money than Kubel? How can $4M for Nick Punto not be a bad contract, when so often he comes up to the plate and fails, and his presence continues to encourage Gardy to make bad decisions ... it's a bad contract, right? Well, I think by now everyone knows my feelings about Punto. He's not a very good baseball player, but his versatility has value. His versatility probably has more value than we're paying for.* It's not a bad contract. Plus, someone with an $8M total contract, in the walk year, can't really be considered a terrible contract.

* I think it's worth pointing out that the Twins have never overpaid Punto based on his contributions. Even in his down years (like 2005, 2007, and 2009), he produces more value than we're paying him. 2009 was close, in that he was worth $5.5M vs his $4M salary, but if you're getting more than you're paying for you really don't have all that much to complain about. Right?

Reusse and his fans* would probably say that Nathan's is a bad contract; after all, he blew a save in the postseason when Alex Rodriguez, one of the greatest hitters of all time happened to come up while he was in a "god damn it I'm hitting .500 with power right now, what are you going to do about it?" hot streak, hit a home run. Also, Nathan wasn't completely dominant this season ... if you're not Mariano Rivera, you're nobody. I mean, Rivera-like dominance is available everywhere on the cheap, that's why every team's closer is perfect every year except Shitty Joe Nathan.

* Wait, does Reusse have any fans? Does he even have anyone who agrees with him, ever? Seriously, I want to know. Someone please point me to a pro-Reusse blog, or something.

Okay, so that probably wasn't all that necessary. But suffice it to say that a lot of teams would probably love to be able to pay Joe Nathan $24M over the next two seasons. If we're going to unload that contract, we're going to be getting something in return, not just dropping it. It's a market value contract for an elite player playing at an elite level. We might not be able to afford many of those, but it's not a disaster to have one.

I'm just going to go ahead and assume nobody wants to just drop Mauer, Morneau, or Kubel for nothing. If that's not okay, let me know.

So it seems none of the Twins' big contracts are bad ones. What about the bad players?

Casilla was awful this year, one of the worst players in the AL. I've been a big pro-Casilla guy for the past few years, and he only briefly looked like the player I'd hoped he could become. I've begun to think that his ceiling is much, much lower than I previously thought it was; he's still young, with time to grow and get better, but his performance is so bad, and his demeanor still so immature, that it might not be worth waiting around for.

Delmon Young was one of the worst players in the AL too, until he got hot over the last few weeks of the season and showed some of the hitting talent that we thought he had when we got him. It seems like he's Gardy's fourth-favorite outfielder, and is getting squeezed out of the outfield situation; if he's going to play, he's going to have to really hit the ball. He hasn't yet, and he looks terrible at the plate, and I'm this close to wanting to give up on him. But I can't just yet. Can you?

Tolbert sucks, and is useless to a team with Punto already on it; but I have the feeling that if Bill Smith showed up at the party with the minimum contract of a second-string utility man, he'd be kicked out (and possibly beaten) by the people lugging in the contracts of Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Barry Zito, etc. Maybe that's not a bad thing.

Alright. Either I'm totally missing the boat on something, or the Twins simply have no bad contracts. If you're a mid-payroll team, the only way to contend regularly is to develop your own players and avoid bad deals; obviously, the Twins have been able to do that and have reaped the rewards for it.

Now we get to see if this success continues once they move into the new stadium and have some more money to spend.

Mauer's health may be good, but is that a good thing for the Twins? And doesn't he have an iPhone?

2009-11-04T00:00:00-08:00

After a far-too-long hiatus* from posting things here, I've got an update about Mauer and his health here that I'd like to talk about briefly.

"He's doing very well," Smith said. "We've gotten all good reports. I think he's pleased and looking forward to a fairly normal offseason and normal preparation for spring training."

Mauer apparently was in Baltimore to see a doctor for an examination -- why do so many of the Twins' players seem to see doctors in Baltimore? Can't they go to local doctors, or the Mayo clinic? -- and the doctors gave him a clean bill of health. Great, right?

* I've had a lot of work-related work to do over the last few months. We just hit our deadline, though, so I'll hopefully have time to get back to Twins stuff for much of the offseason.

Well, I think we've all made the joke that Mauer's (lack of) preparation for the 2009 season may have led to his offensive explosion; he wasn't tired from working out all winter, and that extra energy may have been converted into fly balls to left carrying an extra 8 feet or so. Impossible to say, really, but Mauer's power output declined as the season progressed and dwindled back to normal levels by the time September rolled around.

A "normal" offseason of weight training and expending his apparently-much-needed energy may well be the last thing the Twins want. Unless, of course, they want to wait a year to extend his contract and are hoping he doesn't have another career year, driving his price tag way up.* I hope that's not what they're thinking, because that's exactly what they did with Morneau a few years back, and waiting a year added probably $30M to his price tag.

* Also, I seriously doubt that the Yankees and Red Sox will sour on Mauer if he has another "pedestrian" Mauer-year, dropping to something like .290/.380/.420 like he did in 2005 and 2007 ... it's worth pointing out that that still makes him the best offensive catcher in the game, and also that those teams are too smart to make a long-term judgement about a player based on a small sample. His value isn't going to go down no matter what he does in 2010, short of a career-threatening injury which I'm certain the Twins aren't hoping for, and can only go up. If he wins the Modern Triple Crown again and manages to top 30 HR and 100 RBI, and the Twins don't have him under contract, we can kiss him good bye.

Joe C got Mauer's input on the health update:

Mauer confirmed via text, writing, "Things r looking good."

And I have exactly one thing to say about that: Is it even remotely possible that Joe Mauer doesn't have an iPhone? It's time to give up that old-school text-spelling, Joe.

Oh, and speaking of Mauer's contract, his agent is in Baltimore too, and they're expected to discuss his next deal. So in case you didn't have anything to worry about right now, at least there's this.

Some crazy (but fun) numbers about Mariano Rivera

2009-10-08T00:00:00-07:00

Now, I'm not someone who gets tricked by flukish numbers often,* but check this out:

It has been nearly eight years since Rivera allowed a run in a postseason game at Yankee Stadium. His current postseason scoreless streak at home is 29 1/3 innings (the most by anyone ever in his home park). And in another amazing coincidence for an amazing pitcher, the first 29 1/3 postseason innings he threw at Yankee Stadium were scoreless as well. Here are the longest postseason scoreless-innings streaks at a home ballpark.

So he went 29.1 IP without giving up a run, gave some up, and then has gone exactly 29.1 IP since then without giving up a run? So you're telling me that the Twins will come back off Rivera on Friday night? I think that's what you're telling me.

* Who am I kidding? Yes I am.

Additional fun numbers:

Rivera wears #42, and he's pitched 42 games at home in the postseason, and his ERA in those games is 0.42 (if you tried to make something like this up, people would laugh in your face).

The Dome That Wouldn't Die

2009-10-06T00:00:00-07:00

I don't have much to say about this afternoon's game, other than that we have to win it. I think everybody knows that.

Myself, I'm knocking off work early to head home and watch the game. In case you were wondering, no, I do not feel guilty about this in the slightest. My boss was quite insistent yesterday that I fly back to Minnesota to catch both the Vikings/Packers game and then fly back on Wednesday after having watched the Twins/Tigers. I thought the whole endeavor was pretty absurd, and refused to participate. So yeah, I'm leaving work early. And I'm going to like it.

If you only have it in you to read one thing today, read this Metrodome eulogy by Joe Posnanski. It's typically brilliant.

But that doesn’t mean the place lacks magic. Haunted houses have magic. When the Dome is filled, it’s the loudest park in baseball. And when it’s loud, crazy stuff happens here. Infielders drop fly balls. Baseballs bounce over outfielder’s heads. High line drives can get caught in the air conditioning and ride the air stream over the fence. Hard ground balls can scoot around fielders [like] Barry Sanders, and bounce off walls, and turn singles into triples. Centerfielders leap high against the wall and make remarkable catches.

Without doubt, the place can get crazy. And with the canvas up and 52000 people rocking in there, I fully expect some craziness this afternoon. And I fully expect it to be enjoyable, exciting baseball.

I wonder, though, how much people outside the Midwest really care about this game. It seems to be a foregone conclusion that whichever team is unlucky enough to win this playoff game will be summarily destroyed by the great Yankees, and isn't that what's really important?

Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus essentially sums up the way they feel about this game over on the east coast:

Not to put too fine a point on this, but these aren't good baseball teams. One of them is going to get into the tournament, and once there they'll have no worse than the six- or seven-percent chance that is the floor for any team in this format, but I'm hard-pressed to remember two postseason candidates worse than this. I'd take any of the teams that stumbled into the tournament, or even the barely-over-.500 Padres, over the current versions of the Tigers and Twins. The drama has been nice, but it's entirely an example of the tallest-midget situation you will occasionally get when you carve 30 teams into six sub-groups. Were it not for the unbalanced schedule and interleague play, there's an excellent chance we'd be looking at a sub-.500 team in the postseason.

I was going to write some sort of tirade about this, but I decided against it. I wrote a couple different versions, and can't decide if any of them are worth posting. But one of them* might look like this.

* Oh, okay, so if we changed the schedule so the Twins and Tigers no longer get to play against their weaker divisional rivals (presumably the Yankees and Red Sox would still get to play against the Orioles and Blue Jays, and the Angels would still get to play against the A's and Mariners ... what was Sheehan trying to say?), then they might have a different record! And if they didn't get those free wins against the National League, they'd have fewer wins! Because the Twins and Tigers beating the tar, again, out of the National League is damn good proof that the AL Central is the worst division in baseball and that anyone who plays in it has no god damn chance in the playoffs. Why would anyone waste their time watching a dramatic Game 163 when they can instead scoff and watch, um, The Way The World Turns or whatever the hell else you'd watch on a Tuesday instead of The Only Game That's On Today.

But yes, I think we can all agree that it's good that I didn't go on that ill-advised tirade.

So sure, this game might mean nothing to a fancy New York baseball fan, with his suspenders and shiny leather shoes, and possibly one of those translucent green visors ... yes, this is the image I want to project of these pricks whose sensibilities are so finely tuned that they'd turn up their nose at the only pennant race in the league, that have been screaming for a month that they don't care about this and there's no race, and that have finally just come out and said that neither the Twins nor Tigers are as good as the fucking Padres. You're damn right they're wearing visors.

But, anyway, while it apparently means nothing in New York, it means a whole lot here. It means everything. It's the Metrodome's rotted corpse sticking its hand up through the soil, rising from the grave just one last time, its crowd filling your ears and rattling your bones.

Hopefully the Dome isn't quite ready to go off quietly.

Something about this seems familiar...

2009-10-05T00:00:00-07:00

A few notes before the tiebreaker game tomorrow

MLB finally decided to change their lame coin toss rule. As you all know since we beat the Tigers in the season series we will play at the dome. That is excellent news.
I attended both the saturday and sunday games. My friends and I had a few beverages before and during the saturday game, and afterwards decided to wait around and harass Patrick Ruesse, he got upset and had us removed from the stadium. It was most excellent.
Both Blackburn and Pavano pitched on short rest and came up big. Pavano wasn't great, but he was good enough. Especially when Jason Kubel outscored the entire Royals team. With two swing of the bat. He is probably my favorite Twin.
Scott Baker will start for the Twins tomorrow afternoon. The Tigers will be tossing Rick Porcello. I'm glad we have Baker going. He has been our best pitcher since about May, so I can't think of anyone I'd rather have. Blackburn maybe since he has come up big down the stretch. Baker needs to stay efficient with his pitches and not be out by the 5th because of a high pitch count.
While I would have liked to play the tiebreaker today, having a day off is nice so the bullpen can be rested. Hopefully we don't need them to pitch too many innings.
I read somewhere that the Twins are trying to get a white out going at the dome tomorrow. Everyone wear white and bust out your homer hankies. Its October baseball. Or Rocktober, if you will.

The Sano Signing, and a possible shakeup

2009-10-01T00:00:00-07:00

So the Twins are probably out, after last night's demoralizing loss to the Tigers, when Carl Pavano was finally smacked around by a Tigers lineup that probably should have been getting to him all along. And now, while we're all feeling down about it, and we're all dreading the upcoming offseason -- offseasons in Minnesota are always too long, with varying levels of hype but a consistently minimal amount of action.

But in the wake of The Sano Signing,* perhaps change is afoot with the Twins organization.

Another key: Twins ownership stepped up. Jim Pohlad was said to be as excited as anyone with the organization when told about Sano. “Let’s go get him,” Pohlad said.

Seems to me that's pretty promising; if the owner gets excited about winning and is willing to spend money to do it, things could finally get interesting around here.

* Yes, I am going to call it The Sano Signing, and I'm going to do it because I see it as a turning point for the organization. Miguel Angel Sano may well crap out. He may actually be 20 years old right now. It might turn out that he's not capable of getting around on a 95 mph fastball, or can't pick up a breaking ball. Calling it The Sano Signing is not about getting excited about Sano himself. It's about getting excited about the aggressive new stance of the Twins' front office. Yes, it's a risk. But it's a risk the Twins took. Now we get to hope that they take more risks, and that some of them work out.

A little while back, Reusse complained bitterly that the Twins were still hanging around; he posited that it would have been better if the team had fallen far enough behind that they could be sellers rather than buyers, and that they needed to restock the farm system at the expense of the present, and that he didn't want to have to care any more. Many fans agreed with him, as they seem to do for some reason (why else would he still have a column?).

But while the Twins were buying, they were clearing a few guys out of their farm system. Some of them hadn't been around long, others were banging on the door of the majors, and others weren't but had been around long enough that they needed to be protected from the Rule 5 draft.

Meanwhile, they were quietly changing directions in anticipation of reloading the system, perhaps with a different kind of player.

A couple weeks ago, they let go of Cliburn, the Rochester manager; they said the organization was moving in a different direction.

There hasn't been much additional information about that since, but today's article about Sano had this bit in there:

The Twins, looking at their minor league system, realized that they had a lot of players who, on the 2-through-8 scouting scale, would end up as threes or fours.

I'm going to go out on a limb here, and say that that might have something to do with the change in direction, and with letting Cliburn and others go -- perhaps the Twins felt there are guys within the minor leagues who value these 2's and 3's too highly, and it's preventing more talented players from rising (or even entering the system in the first place). Maybe Cliburn was one of them.

Yes, the Twins are probably out of it now. They "contended" until the final week of the season, and while that's no consolation prize, it did at least give us a full summer of baseball. And now, maybe they're shaking things up a bit.

That'd be a good thing.

Let's play two!

2009-09-29T00:00:00-07:00

Game one of the Twins-Tigers doubleheader will start at 11am central time today. Since I am at work I will only be following the gamecast, but feel free to follow me (@Robert_Short) and sirsean (@sirsean) on twitter to read any thoughts we have on the game.

Blackburn vs Procello. The Twins need to win this game to set the tone. As all of you have read the Twins need to win at least 3. Do that and we are tied heading into a weekend series at the dome against KC, while the Tigers play the white sox in Detroit. If we win all 4 we will have a commanding 2 game lead with 3 to play. Let's not get ahead of ourselves, one game at a time, etc. etc.

Go Twins!

Just Win, Baby

2009-09-23T00:00:00-07:00

The Twins have 11 games remaining. 8 are on the road. We finish up in Chicago tonight, then head to KC for the weekend. Followed by a 4 gamer in lovely Detroit. We sit 2.5 games behind the Tigers (the odd game will be made up Thursday, when we are off and the Tigers play at Cleveland), but we do kind of control our own destiny. If we just keep winning we will win the division. That has to be comforting for the players. While it would be nice for Detroit to give us some help by losing, it isn't necessary. If we can go into Detroit less than 4 games back and sweep them, we take the lead and head home to play KC. Obviously, winning 11 straight games starting tonight will be difficult, it isn't impossible. We also don't NEED the Tigers to lose to anyone other than us. Oddly, Detroit is in the same boat.

Manship's poor outing last night was disheartening as his spot is due up at least once more. On the broadcast last night Dick mentioned possibly using Liriano in that spot next Sunday. Baker, Pavano, Blackburn, and Duensing have all been encouraging lately so hopefully they can carry that momentum into their next starts. I'm sure Gardy will do some rotation shuffling with one off day left for him to work with.

Mathematically the Twins have a 25.8% chance of making the playoffs, which makes us the only team alive in the AL race. While the Yankees are the only team to have locked up a spot, the Angels and Red Sox are pretty much there. Both the Twins and the Tigers are very flawed teams, but we are making September interesting.

In the immortal words of Al Davis: Just Win, Baby!

The early returns on Dayan Viciedo

2009-09-21T00:00:00-07:00

Remember earlier this year when I complained about the Twins allowing Dayan Viciedo -- the stud 20 year old Cuban defector who was described as "the next Miguel Cabrera -- to go to the White Sox, who signed him to a 4 year, $10M contract?

Well, the early returns have not been great. Marc Hulet of Fangraphs describes him as one of 2009 "Prospect Duds," saying:

Viciedo’s .692 OPS versus right-handed pitchers is cause for concern, as are the scouting reports that focused more and more on his lack of conditioning, which no doubt hindered him at the plate, as well as in the field. He showed worse range than Oakland’s Brett Wallace, widely considered to be a first baseman playing third base (especially based on his range). Unfortunately for Viciedo, he has yet to display enough power to be an asset at first base, and he lacks the mobility for even left field. The Cuban also performed poorly in a small sample size as the designated hitter in double-A, which could be a result of his focus issues.

Basically, Viciedo fields like a DH and hits like a CF ... and that's not going to work.

The hype around Viciedo was impressive, and it sounded great;* he was supposed to be able to step into the majors this year, and he was apparently the White Sox's best hitter in Spring Training. Obviously, their scouts saw something in the way he was playing that the numbers didn't pick up, because he sure wasn't ready.

* Doesn't it always?

I don't see any reason to give up on Viciedo, and Hulet even notes that a) the sky is still the limit, and b) he's still only 20 years old. So while I'm still pretty high on him, at this point I think it's fair to say I was wrong for getting up in arms about the Twins passing on Viciedo, and it's certainly not a bad thing that they don't have $10M invested in a young prospect with declining prospects.

And that's the thing about teams with more resources; they can afford to take risks that other teams with less resources simply cannot afford to take. The Twins can't risk blowing $10M on some unproven commodity that might never turn into anything -- even though taking those sorts of risks is how you build a great ballclub, without sufficient money you just can't risk it.

All of which is another reason to be hopeful about Target Field: if it truly does increase revenue enough that the Twins can admit that they're simply no longer a "small market" franchise, then perhaps they'll start spending enough money that a $10M gamble doesn't seem quite so unreasonable any more.

In the long run, I'd call that a good thing.

Goodnight, Sweet Prince

2009-09-15T00:00:00-07:00

Well, Morneau is out for the rest of the year. He has a stress fracture in his back, which was revealed by a CT scan yesterday. That certainly is a bummer, but hopefully we can rally and end the season on a positive note by winning some games for Mr. Morneau.

5.5 back, 7 left to play against Detroit, their magic number is 14. Lets stay focused. Go Twins.

Useless Offday Thoughts: Dwelling on Joe Nathan

2009-09-03T00:00:00-07:00

Is it just me, or are the offdays getting more frequent as the season winds its way closer to the bitter end? Maybe it's just that I desperately want to get the foul taste of yesterday's lost out of my mouth, and thus today's lack of a game seems unforgivable. That said, I bet the Twins need it. Losing like that is tough for the fans, but I can only imagine it's tougher on the players,* and they could probably use a day off.

* Is anyone else glad that Redmond insisted on calling for Nathan's breaking balls on a full count to two consecutive hitters? Because the radio guys said it looked like Nathan really didn't want to throw those, and wanted to go with his fastball. He spun up a couple of hangers, and there you go. Can someone tell me why Mike Redmond is still on our team? And can someone also tell me why catchers seem to get worse at calling a game as they get older? Posada has gotten worse at calling games, Pudge Rodriguez has got worse at calling games, even Varitek has gotten worse at it. And I don't remember Redmond actively doing shit he knows the pitcher doesn't have confidence in before this season. This asshole has got to go.

Anyway, there's been a lot of talk lately about Nathan, in the context of the old "is Joe Nathan okay?" conversation that we have every season around this time. Actually we usually have it a little bit earlier in the season, I think ... but I contend that this phase of his season is based on innings pitched or appearances or something, not the calendar, and since we haven't had as many leads this year as we normally do, we haven't used Nathan as much. Usually the conversation bounces between the extremes of "we're paying this old man too much money and he sucks!" and "he must be injured, he needs rest" and "he's fine, just keep rolling him out there." It's easy to go to extremes when you're talking about a closer: all his moments are in high leverage situations, and if he has a bad day, you lose, simple as that. So if he stuggles for a little bit, the team has a lot of trouble winning games.

But have we seen this before from Nathan? (Obviously, I had to pick where his struggles started and ended. Some years it's more pronounced than others, and I had to just pick the best dates I could. You can disagree about the specifics, I suppose, but I think this ought to give you a general idea.) Let's take a look at the numbers.

2004 opening phase, 4/15-8/18: 49 G, 51 IP, 0.35 ERA, 2 ER, 62 K, 15 BB, opponents: .160/.234/.211 2004 struggle, 8/19-8/24: 3 G, 2.1 IP, 23.14 ERA, 6 ER, 3 K, 2 BB, opponents: .600/.647/.867 2004 finish, 8/25-10/2: 17 G, 15.1 IP, 1.17 ERA, 2 ER, 20 K, 3 BB, opponents: .115/.164/.135

2005 opening phase, 4/5-8/30: 57 G, 58.1 IP, 2.31 ERA, 15 ER, 74 K, 21 BB, opponents: .177/.251/.263 2005 struggle, 9/3-9/6: 3 G, 3 IP, 6 ER, 18.00 ERA, 5 K, 0 BB, opponents: .462/.429/1.000 2005 finish, 9/7-10/2: 9 G, 8.2 IP, 0 ER, 0.00 ERA, 15 K, 1 BB, opponents: .103/.133/.138

2006 opening phase, 4/6-8/13: 46 G, 50 IP, 1.44 ERA, 8 ER, 71 K, 9 BB, opponents: .173/.216/.263 2006 struggle, 8/15-9/11: 9 G, 9.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 4 ER, 11 K, 4 BB, opponents: .129/.222/.226 2006 finish, 9/12-10/1: 9 G, 9 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0 ER, 13 K, 3 BB, opponents: .100/.182/.133

2007 opening phase, 4/2-9/1: 56 G, 58.1 IP, 1.70 ERA, 11 ER, 60 K, 11 BB, opponents: .210/.250/.286 2007 struggle, 9/4-9/17: 6 G, 7 IP, 5.14 ERA, 4 ER, 7 K, 1 BB, opponents: .231/.259/.577 2007 finish, 9/18-9/30: 6 G, 6.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0 ER, 10 K, 7 BB, opponents: .182/.379/.227

2008 opening phase, 3/31-8/21: 55 G, 55 IP, 0.98 ERA, 6 ER, 61 K, 13 BB, opponents: .185/.239/.277 2008 struggle, 8/25-9/16: 7 G, 6.1 IP, 5.68 ERA, 4 ER, 6 K, 4 BB, opponents: .240/.367/.480 2008 finish, 9/18-9/30: 6 G, 6.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0 ER, 7 K, 1 BB, opponents: .050/.095/.050

2009 opening phase, 4/8-8/19: 49 G, 46.2 IP, 1.54 ERA, 8 ER, 61 K, 11 BB, opponents: .160/.217/.245 2009 struggle, 8/21-?: 6 G, 6.2 IP, 8.10 ERA, 6 ER, 9 K, 6 BB, opponents: .300/.417/.700

So my personal feeling about Nathan's struggles is mostly correct: that he does, in fact, struggle every year, and it always happens at roughly the same time. He always gets through about 46-58 innings before he enters a sort of a dead-arm period and becomes hittable -- in some cases quite a bit worse than hittable: he can put up some pretty ugly numbers during the struggle period.

Be the struggle period usually doesn't last very long. In his first couple yars, it lasted just 3 games; his longest struggle was in 2006, which also happened to be his least struggly struggle period (his opponents OPS stayed below .500). In the other years, it lasted between 6 and 7 innings.

One thing that stands out for me is that his 2009 struggle period showed up in the smallest amount of innings in his career, though not (quite) the smallest amount of appearances. In severity, it's middle of the road; his 8.10 ERA is 3rd out of 6, and his 1.117 OPS is also 3rd of 6. And we're getting close to the end of it. It's likely that it's over now, and at most we can anticipate 3 more games during his struggle. While the Twins are at a point of the season where they can't afford a struggling Nathan for three more games, it's not really Nathan's fault that he reached this level of usage this late in the season. He either should have gotten more save opportunities (blame the offense, or the starting pitching, or the bullpen), or should have gotten more non-save appearances (blame Gardy's "old" fashioned closed-mindedness).

And the reason not to fear using him more often, given his dead-arm period? Look at his post-struggle numbers. In 45.2 IP, he's given up 2 ER, for an absurdly awesome 0.39 ERA. Once his struggles end, Nathan dominates through the end of the season.

While it obviously hurts when we lose because of Nathan, I don't think there's anything to worry about. We've seen this before from him, and he's always gotten out of it. We just have to hope he gets out of it soon and that the rest of the team can give him enough opportunities that his late-season dominance makes a difference.

Stupid Off-day

2009-09-03T00:00:00-07:00

I apologize for not having posted anything in a very long time. I'm sure everyone missed me, but since college football is gearing up my attention has been focused on my Fighting Irish. I will try to split my time accordingly between the the Twins and ND, they do legally have joint custody of me.

The loss yesterday hurts, but remember we still have SEVEN games left against Detroit. 3 at home, 4 at Comerica. It doesn't really bother me that we have to play in Detroit. From what I recall we don't play unusually terrible there compared with say Cleveland or Chicago. You won't see Gardy bitching about a stadium we travel to 10 times a year and blaming said stadium on all of our failures. Cough (Ozzie) Cough. Excuse me. We just need to keep winning, and getting quality starts from the back end of the rotation the rest of the season. If Baker-Pavano-Blackburn-Manship-Duensing can pitch like they did the most recent time though the rotation for the entire month we will be in good shape. Joe Nathan is going to spectacularly blow saves too often down the stretch. He is just too good. I'm going to chalk yesterday up to a bad day. Nothing more.

The Tigers play the Indians at home this afternoon. I for one will be following on gamecast and cheering on the Tribe.

Do catchers really get worse at hitting as the season progresses?

2009-09-01T00:00:00-07:00

This year that the All Star game, Tim McCarver brought up a theory about how difficult it is for a catcher to win a batting title; his point was that what Mauer has done in his career, and is doing again this year, is truly remarkable. He pointed out that a catcher's body gets beat up so badly during a game and over the course of the season, that it's practically impossible for catchers to hit in their last couple at bats, and by the end of the season their bodies are done for. Well, in typical McCarver fashion, he said something that everyone's heard a million times before -- it's a good thing he's a highly paid analyst, otherwise we might hear something during a broadcast that we've never heard before. And it makes sense, too. Catcher is a very difficult position, and everyone's heard those horror stories about guys who used to be catchers and now their knees are shot and their hand is all mangled up, and it's pretty easy to imagine that while they were developing those long-term injuries, well, they might have been in a little bit of pain.

Baseball Prospectus doesn't usually take things like that at face value, though. Tim Kniker opens the issue:

This seemed an interesting little theory from an ex-catcher that begged for some numbers to back it up. This comment also got me thinking about a potentially even larger issue: Does the wear and tear of playing at certain defensive positions on the field lead to reduced offensive production? Does this happens during the course of the game, and/or throughout the season?

I encourage you to click through and see the stats, as they're pretty interesting. I'm not going to re-post BP's stats here, since that's basically their lifeblood and I don't want to steal it. But I will talk about their conclusions.

Kniker broke it down thusly: He separated all the players out into their respective positions, and measured their batting averages* in each at bat of the game (ie, the 1st-3rd at bats, the 4th at bat, the 5th-plus at bats). Then he looks at what positions got better and worse in their progressive at bats.

* I was originally surprised he went with measuring batting average, but then realized that we're talking about winning batting titles. So I guess batting average is the stat that makes sense in this discussion. Though I'd be interesting in seeing the research re-done using OPS or something. I feel like that would be more interesting and telling.

And as it turns out, catchers tend to improve as the game goes on more than almost any other position. Outfielders actually improve the least (and CF has it the worst). So the conventional wisdom doesn't have it exactly right, it seems.

So what does this say about the original point, about Joe Mauer? Is he even better at staying at his level throughout the game, and is that is leading to the batting titles? It is interesting to note that his batting average was pretty consistent in his first three times up year-to-year, but in the one year he didn't win the batting title, he had a very low batting average in his late-game plate appearances. One thing to point out is that every in year, he typically performed worse in late-game plate appearances than he did in his early-game plate appearances, as compared to other catchers.

In 2007, when Mauer failed to win the batting title, his late-game plate appearances were pretty poor (.243 in 2007 vs .351 in 2006 and .333 in 2008), but perhaps more interesting is that while most catchers improve a lot in each successive plate apperance throughout the game, Mauer does not (as much, anyway).

When looking at the course of a whole season, Kniker found that in 2008, catchers dipped -.024 points of batting average in their 301+ PAs vs their first 300, but that 2008 was an outlier and normally catchers don't fall by that much in the second half. Really, the position as a whole is right in line with all the other positions. It appears that McCarver's conventional wisdom about catchers getting beat up and it affecting their hitting just doesn't hold up with reality.

Kniker concludes:

When we see the three years in perspective, the data suggest that there isn't really a significant impact on catcher performance in terms of batting average during the latter portion of the long regular season. Perhaps the likely cause is that any fatigue that might occur with any one position's performance at the plate is likely to be equaled by pitcher fatigue, such that it all evens out in the end.

I don't know why he didn't bring it back around to Mauer, but I'm going to go ahead and do that myself.

I've been thinking for a while about why Mauer's able to hold up over the long season and seems to be able to hit like a DH despite playing C, and that maybe he's just such a physical freak of nature that he's able to withstand the beatings more effectively than most catchers. Apparently, however, that's not the case at all. First of all, most catchers are not actually adversely effected by the physical beating they take, either in the game or over the course of the season. Secondly, Mauer is one of the few catchers who is adversely effected, and his hitting does suffer slightly (by "suffer," I mean "improve less than others"). It's just that Mauer's talent level is so astronomical, and his numbers start so high, that he just hits better than anyone else anyway.

Calcaterra is absolutely right that the Twins need to sign Mauer to a long term contract, and they need to do it soon:

The smart money still has Mauer staying in his hometown, but if it gets to be spring training and nothing is done, the odds will begin to drop. The Twins don't need the hassle, the bad P.R. or the spectre of the Red Sox or someone driving up the price. They need to get a long term deal done for Mauer this winter.

He's the best player in the AL, and he shows you why just about every game. I'd enjoy it while you can, because Bill Smith doesn't seem like the kind of guy who can do anything right.

Big hits, sports memories and baseball

2009-08-31T00:00:00-07:00

For some reason,* I've been thinking about Jermaine Dye recently. And since the Twins starting a big series against the White Sox, one that has the potential to bury them (or the Twins), let's go ahead and talk about Jermaine Dye. Everybody knows he's quite the hitter, but that he looks as awkward in the field, a la Delmon Young. On the other hand, I've always thought he was a pretty good defensive right fielder.

* If you read the comments, you may know the reason.

Why in blazes would I think that, I can hear you asking. Well, I think it has a lot to do with how sports memories are created. And I don't know if that actually works very well for baseball. I know you don't know what I mean, so ... let me try to explain.

Despite the fact that I live in Chicago, I rarely watch White Sox games. I really only watch them when a) the Twins are playing them, or b) when I see that they're getting their doors blown off by the Yankees or something and I want to enjoy a little schadenfreude. As a result, my day-to-day exposure to Dye is limited. I only see a few of his highlights on Sportscenter all season, and I see him play about 20 games.

And what I see him doing is blasting home runs into the upper deck, over and over. I see him winning games in the 9th inning -- one of my lasting memories of US Cellular field was a game I attended in 2006, Santana vs Contreras. Johan pitched that day, and pitched pretty well, and it looked like the Twins were going to win it. Dye hadn't done anything all game, but he came up against Joe Nathan, in the 9th inning, with the Twins up 7-5, and a man on base. I was in the upper deck, down the third base line, but even from their I could see Dye's brow clenched in the way it does when he's concentrating, that look I'd seen dozens of times in the two years it'd been since he came to the White Sox. I knew, at the same time as everyone else in the stadium, that this man was going to do it. That Joe Nathan was not going to get him out. That the game would be tied, and that the White Sox would go on to win.

Soon, he blasted a monster home run that I'm pretty sure landed somewhere in rural Illinois. I was devastated. Also I was ridiculed by the drunken White Sox fans surrounding me. The moment is seared onto my brain. This is a sports memory. This is, I think, how they are formed. They're just instants, single moments, snapshots in time that live on in your head when you close your eyes. It kind of faded into the background that the Twins ended up winning that game in extra innings -- I didn't even remember that until I looked it up. It was that moment when I knew Dye would get a clutch hit, that Nathan would blow that save, when I knew as well as 30000 White Sox fans that the Sox were going to beat the Twins that day.

And it seems like Dye does that to the Twins all the time. He's getting big hits and making diving catches in the outfield. It seems like every time a Twins player rips one into right field, and I lean forward thinking this is going to be the big hit we need to break the inning open, and Dye is moving like molasses out there, and dreams of the ball clattering around in the corner and turning into a triple dance through my head -- and then he explodes forward, dives or slides with his glove extended, and the ball invariably finds its way into his glove. Jermaine Dye is a good fielder, right? I mean, he gets to balls that it sure doesn't look like most outfielders would get to.

In 2006, he was -22.5 runs defensively. In 2007, -21.6 runs. In 2008, -19.4 runs. In 2009, he's been -14.5 runs so far, with some time to build on that. Jermaine Dye is a bad fielder. I have to reconcile the fact that it seems like he's always making a great catch when I'm watching with the fact that, when I'm not watching, he apparently can't field his way out of a barn.* I don't fully trust the defensive metrics, but they never say a good defender is giving up 2 wins per year with the glove. That's just horrible defense.

* Does that newly invented idiom work? I think it doesn't. I doubt I'll use it again.

And it's not a fluke -- it's been going on for four years. This is his skill level. Is it possible that he actually fields better against the Twins than against other teams? Maybe, I don't know. I don't know of any stats that measure something like that -- UZR or UZR/150 vs opponent? If someone knows where to find that, I'm in.

But this, I think, is why sports memories don't work in baseball. You see someone do something great in a big moment, and it's a coincidence. You see him do it three or four times, though, and he's a clutch player. At least in your mind -- if you've seen the scores and scores of times he's failed in those situations, you might not think he's "clutch." You might not even believe in clutch* any more.

* Albert Pujols' OPS in "late & close" situations is 1.047 -- that's amazing! He's a clutch player! Except that his overall career OPS is 1.055 ... he's the same hitter all the time.

That's the thing, though. Baseball is a game of failure. Even the best players, like Mauer and Pujols, fail all the time. ESPN shows the times Pujols blasts the grand slam, or hits the walkoff home run -- but he's a transcendent star, so they don't show the times he pops out in those situations. Nobody succeeds every time in baseball, nobody.

I'm talking about hitting right now when I'm discussing clutch players -- there's no stat for "late & close fielding," or anything like that. And nobody really even considers it possible, right? When someone turns a key double play to end a threat in the 9th, is it a clutch fielding play? When Torii robs a game winning homer, is it a clutch fielding play? You never really hear about that. But what I'm really trying to get at is that baseball is not really about these moments. I mean -- it's nothing but these moments, it wouldn't be baseball without these moments, you wouldn't love it without these moments.

The thing is, baseball is a lot more than those moments, though. If you had a guy who only performed in the big moments, you wouldn't have a very good player; you don't get to bat with the game on the line every day. In addition to all the big moments, there are a lot of small moments. Millions of them, really. And each player builds his value, just a little bit, in each one of those millions of moments. Sometimes he does well and his value goes up -- other times he does poorly and his value goes down. You can't tell by looking at one game which players are good -- how many times has Punto got a couple of hits while Morneau goes 0-4 with 2 K's? You can't tell by looking at a month. You can't really even tell by looking at one year.* It takes more time that that to put all these little moments together and try to figure out how good a player actually is.

* Is Punto a .290 hitter like in 2006, or a .210 hitter like in 2007? Is he a .284 hitter like in 2008, or a .213 hitter like in 2009. My answer: No. And yes. It's baseball.

I said this in the comments, but I know a lot of people don't read those, so I'll bring it to light here. (Even though I also know a lot of people don't read this far down into my posts.)

The game is a lot larger than that one at bat you always daydreamed about when you were 10, win-or-lose in this moment. And in your dream you always win, and you idolize the players who do it in real life, who win the games at the end, who hit when it “counts.”

But you’re not 10 any more, and it always counts. Do you get hyped up more than ever for every at bat, like it’s football? Or do you relax more than you used to, accepting the games where we lose at the end because someone failed to come up with a hit in the 9th — perhaps realizing that they turned a key double play in the top of the 9th that even got us to the situation where we could win or lose in that particular at bat? Or do you just continue to “ignore” (not the right word, probably) most of the game and focus highly on those win-or-lose moments, staying a casual fan?

It’s each person’s choice. And there’s no wrong answer. But I feel like when you’re talking about who’s the worst player, you’re talking about their “value to the team.” And a player’s value is a whole lot more than a counter of the times they came through in the 9th inning.

So, yes. The big hits are the ones you remember, the moments that stick. I guess maybe that's what defines a great player -- someone you remember forever is someone playing in a lot of those highlight reels in your head. But I think there's a lot more to it than that, and I think the beauty of the game is just that. All those tiny, meaningless moments. Every single day. All spring, summer, and fall.

Was this really about Jermaine Dye? Of course it was. But even more, it was about all the players.

Maybe now, just maybe, when you're in the comments section talking about how badly Nick Punto sucks, you'll have a better idea of where I'm coming from.

Useless Offday Thoughts: The ballpark, and third base

2009-08-27T00:00:00-07:00

This week saw the Twins set their season high winning streak at five games -- by sweeping the lowly Royals and taking the first two from the Orioles, all at home, a truly impressive feat, to be sure -- before dropping the final game of the Orioles series because, inexplicably, they couldn't score any runs against Jeremy Guthrie. That guy was on my fantasy team for a while, and believe me: he sucks. But today is an offday, and on offdays I don't dwell on the failings of the previous day. Instead, I try to avoid dwelling on how much I hate offdays by thinking about random, useless stuff all day long! So here are your useless offday thoughts to tide you over.

The Ballpark

Time is winding down to the end of the season, and the exodus from the dome. Everyone, of course, is excited about the new stadium. It's going to be great, they tell us. Real baseball, played really outdoors. The team will have more money, so we can feel really great about the fact that the Pohlad family will be getting larger, sweeter profits* while they don't actually spend the money on acquiring more players.

* Paid for by our ticket money, and our hot dog money, and our tax money. Well, your tax money. I don't live there.

Are you as excited as I am?

Shockingly, Rob Neyer is pretty excited about the possibility of the Twins sucking once they don't have the dome any more. He points to an article by Steve Aschburner that talks about the new stadium, but raises the issue that the Twins have enjoyed a significant home field advantage:

For all its affronts, though, the Metrodome hosted moments that Target Field will be hard-pressed to duplicate. The Twins, through the All-Star break, had gone 1,193-1015 in the monochrome building since it opened, including a 372-243 home mark since manager Ron Gardenhire took over in 2002. They have won six division titles while calling it home, with two AL pennants. Their World Series titles both owed much to the Dome, from its alien feel for St. Louis (1987) and Atlanta (1991) to the deafening crowd noise; the Twins won all eight Series games played in the Dome and lost all six on the road.

I'm pretty sure quite a bit has changed about the dome since the World Series victories decades ago, including the height of the baggy, the ground rules regarding the speakers, the bounciness of the ground, the actual surface of the grass, and probably some other things I'm forgetting. So I wouldn't bring up anything that happened that long ago. That said, the fact that they're 178 games over .500 since 1982 and that includes being 130 games over .500 since 2002 says to me that the Twins have had their best, strongest home field advantage during the Gardy Era. So maybe all those changes have helped the Twins.

Maybe the team is just better now than it was during the 90s. Is that possible? Neyer?

Teams that play in freaky ballparks -- the Twins, the Rockies, the Red Sox, the Padres -- tend to have larger-than-normal differences between their home and road records. This might be a home advantage and a road disadvantage, as was the case for many years for the Rockies. I don't see why it has to be, though. My guess is that whatever home advantage the Twins lose in their home ballpark, they will not gain by playing better on the road.

Or it's because the organization tends to model its players and its roster in a particular fashion because of the features of their home park. If you have a really fast infield and rock hard ground, you're going to want a bunch of slap-hitting speedsters* in your lineup to take advantage of that ... and that's what the Twins have done over the years. Conversely, if you have short fences and long grass and wind that carries the ball you're going to want a bunch of lumbering sluggers who put the ball in the seats ... and that's what the White Sox have done.

* At least that's what you might think you want to do. The point is that this is what the Twins have, in fact, done. And that I'm giving them the opportunity to blame the dome for it. We'll see what they do in the next 2-4 years to reshape the roster to better fit the new environment.

So the Twins will lose their "dome field advantage," but many teams have an advantage at home (all of them, actually), so is it really that unthinkable that the franchise won't be crippled by this move?

If that's the case, they'll have to play better -- fundamentally better -- just to stay roughly where they've been, record-wise. That's a tall order, but of course their new ballpark is supposed to bring higher revenues and the related ability to compete financially with their competition.

It'll depend on the actual environment of the new stadium, of course, but the Twins will have to change their roster to try to match what they've got. If the ball travels well, they're going to want to ditch all their fly ball pitchers for ground ball pitchers and replace the ground ball hitters with fly ball hitters. Of course, Neyer would probably consider this "fundamentally better" baseball, and would say he was right all along. Fine. But it's just going to be a natural process of fitting your roster to your environment.

In the end, everything probably comes out in the wash. But nobody should pretend the organization won't lose something when it finally leaves that big old barn of a building.

Hopefully it loses a bunch of enmity from the press, who have always been annoyed that they have to travel to the untamed wilderness of Minnesota in the first place, and positively angered by the Metrodome. Beat writers will probably rave about the new stadium. Of course, Rob Neyer will continue to write bi-weekly screeds about how the Twins have no fucking business being in the major leagues, and should just send all their good players to a real team like the Red Sox.

But what really gets me is that everyone just naturally assumes that Target Field is just going to be a generic cookie cutter stadium plopped out of the same mold of a dozen others, and that the Twins won't have a new, natural home field advantage. Everyone always gets annoyed when a new stadium has contrived "quirks," like the crazy ass walls at Citi Field that serve no purpose but to mess with outfielders. Old stadiums had quirks because of limitations and constraints of the plot of land they were dealing with -- and in case nobody noticed, Target Field is located on a lot way too small for a stadium, and is nestled between a factory and a river. It has a big ass limestone wall in right field.

Who's to say that these constraints won't lend themselves to some actual quirks in the new stadium that the Twins can take advantage of? Nobody knows what's going to happen with that limestone wall. Will balls hit it and bounce unpredictably, rewarding left handed pull hitters? Imagine if every time Morneau smashed one off the baggy, it careened wildly in an unknown direction. Conversely, what if it bounces straight, and a line drive against it can fly all the way back to the infield? These are unanswered questions, but the fact that they're there means there very well could be some home field advantage for the Twins next year. Don't tell Neyer, he might hurt himself trying to figure out another fancy and backhanded way to say "the Twins suck."

Third base

During the offseason, one of the glaring holes on the team was third base. With Punto "entrenched" as the shortstop, third would be manned by a mostly pathetic Buscher/Harris platoon, which would have been pretty inadequate both offensively and defensively. The main opportunities for upgrade were Casey Blake, Mark Derosa, Ty Wigginton, and Joe Crede.

Blake's contract demands were way too high, and he went to the Dodgers. Bill Smith claimed the price to trade for Derosa was too high, so we missed on him. It was down to Wigginton vs Crede.

Wigginton was coming off his breakout season, having posted a 128 OPS+ and basically mashing the ball -- Crede was coming off back surgery. Before the season, I figured Wigginton could be worth 3.0 wins, and Crede could be worth 1.9 wins (Crede's worth was pushed down by injury risk, and Wigginton's was probably buoyed by his strong 2008). So when the Twins claimed Wigginton wanted "Blake money" and decided to stop talking to him, I didn't have a huge problem with it until he signed with the Orioles for Mike Lamb money. Once again, Smith looks like a liar, or an incompetent boob.

But ... we have the benefit of hindsight! How have these two third baseman fared this season, and should the Twins regret this decision?

Wigginton: 91 G, .259/.306/.387, 8 HR, 33 RBI, 28 R, 40 K, 19 BB, -0.5 WAR Crede: 88 G, .229/.293/.421, 15 HR, 48 RBI, 42 R, 52 K, 29 BB, 1.9 WAR

So, yes. They've both seen somewhat limited duty, Crede's due to a state of perpetual almost-injury, and Wigginton's due to ineffectiveness. Personally, I'd rather my players be ready to play every day, but given the choice between being out because you're hurt and being out because you suck, I think I'd have to go with hurt. Right? Gleeman's take* on Crede's state of "injury" this season:

Despite having to accumulate plate appearances to make money Crede has played in just 88 of 126 games, and the amazing thing is that he's been out of the lineup 30 percent of the time without spending a second on the disabled list. Instead he's missed 3-5 games every couple weeks, leaving the Twins to play with a 24-man roster for long stretches while essentially being "day-to-day" for five months.

Anyway, it looks like Crede's got the advantage everywhere except in making contact and drawing walks. Overall, he's been worth 2.4 wins more than Wigginton, which is huge, and points to the Twins having made the right decision between these two guys. (I'll leave out whether it was good to let it get to that, but whatever.)

By the way, I am amused that Gleeman's article is titled "Twins getting what they paid for with Crede," yet he doesn't mention what they're paying him or what he's been worth, and doesn't address value or cost in any way. Anyway, he's right. Crede is guaranteed $2.5M with incentives that could push it to a total of $7M. So far this year, he's produced $8.4M worth of value. Despite the low batting average, the lack of walks, and the nagging injuries, the Twins have actually gotten more* than they bargained for when they signed Crede. Plus there was that walkoff grand slam!

Of course, Crede probably won't be back next season, and we're going to have to find another 3B option. Hopefully it's Danny Valencia, and hopefully Valencia actually turns out to be good. Because the Twins have really, really struggled with that position lately.

Not coincidentally the Twins rank 11th in the 14-team league with a measly .695 OPS from third base, which is nothing new for them. Corey Koskie was Minnesota's third baseman from 1999 to 2004, hitting .280/.373/.463 with 52 extra-base hits per 500 at-bats, but since losing him to free agency five years ago Twins third basemen have ranked 10th, 13th, 14th, 11th, and 11th in OPS among AL teams.

Who would have thought that replacing Corey Koskie would prove to be so impossible?

Talking about some players who left

2009-08-24T00:00:00-07:00

I haven't been around here in a while, so I figured now would be a good time to toss out a nice little blog post. Oh, and in case anyone's paying attention, that sweep of the Royals just jumped us to 4.5 games behind Detroit, and we basically got ourselves right back into the picture. Quite satisfying, thank you.

As you all probably recall, I was pretty down on Torii Hunter when he left, and I didn't like the attitude* he was showing towards the team and towards his teammates, and I didn't think he'd age that well, and I thought his contract with the Angels would quickly turn into an albatross. That might still happen, but so far he's been more than worth what the Angels are paying him. Of course, Gleeman still takes an opportunity to point out that he's been right all along about Torii's big tough-guy talk being a big load:

Torii Hunter's tough-guy act took another hit recently, as he spent six weeks on the disabled list with a groin injury and then delayed his return thanks to "flu-like symptoms" after dining at the Olive Garden. Seriously. Hunter spent his final season in Minnesota publicly criticizing Mauer for not possessing the toughness to play through injuries, yet has missed 56 of a possible 284 games since signing with the Angels and has been in the lineup just eight more times than Mauer during the past five years.

I guess Torii shouldn't have gone with the never ending pasta bowl. That's something that seems like it sounds a lot better than it actually is. And yes, I basically just posted that quote to point out, once again, how ridiculously awesome Mauer is.

* Although my dad pointed out something interesting about Torii's "attitude" in his last couple years with the team. He'd come up with a different generation of prospects, and all his friends were gone. The new core was already forming, and the team was clearly built around Mauer and Morneau. It's got to be kind of tough for a guy, the face of the franchise, to sit there and watch as he's slowly ousted from his perch in the center of the fans' collective heart. And why would he listen to the new silent lead-by-example leadership of Mauer and Morneau when he's several years older than they are and has been a vocal leader for years? Everything about how he wanted out makes sense to me, and I just can't be annoyed with him for it.

And speaking of players who left, check out these two stat lines:

Player A: 3.78 FIP, 7.88 K/9, 2.48 BB/9, 1.08 HR/9, 1.21 WHIP, .296 BABIP Player B: 4.06 FIP, 7.40 K/9, 1.79 BB/9, 1.36 HR/9, 1.17 WHIP, .291 BABIP

Those aren't that different, and if Player B could just keep the ball in the park a little bit more his FIP would probably drop down and be right in line with Player A's. They're remarkably close to the being the same pitcher. So ... which one would you rather have? Let's look at some more numbers:

Player A: 30 years old, $20M in 2009, $118M owed after 2009 Player B: 27 years old, $750K in 2009, $23.75M owed after 2009

Yeah, you probably know now who the players are. But which one would you rather have at this point? Is 0.28 points of FIP really worth $21.25M?

Just so we're clear, Player A is Johan Santana. Player B is Scott Baker.

Does that change your answer?

For as bad as Baker has been, and for how discouraging that has been, just imagine if he had the big name like Johan, and we were paying him 25% of our payroll, and he was doing the same thing. You'd feel worse, wouldn't you?

2 comebacks in a row, and some ump bashing

2009-08-20T00:00:00-07:00

Well, these last two games have been great. I can't remember the last time the Twins had a comeback win. Let alone two in a row against a playoff caliber team. I didn't think it was possible.

It was great to see Baker get out of several jams, although it would have been better if he didn't get into said jams in the first place, but whatever. We could have been down by way more than four runs.

In other news, I was reading LaVelle's post game wrap up and found this little gem:

Funny…there was a memo on Gardy’s desk before the game talking about how hard umpires are working to get calls right and that managers should understand that. Hah!

Um, what? Gardy should understand when an ump blows a call because they are trying? That is bogus. If an umpire gets a call wrong he should be held accountable. I'm not saying take the call back, but there should be some review process. The powers that be (umpires union, Selig, whomever) should review these calls and if the ump did indeed get it wrong he should somehow be reprimanded. Suspension, fine, something. It should probably depend on how much that one call affected the game. If Jones went on to hit a homer and the Rangers ended up winning, obviously more scrutiny should be placed on that botched strike call.

I also liked the point I saw in the comments section: pitch location is completely thrown out the window when appealing down the line. What is with that. If the ball is in the zone, call it a strike. I'm pretty sure that pitch Jones "checked" his swing on was a strike anyway so why the appeal? The homeplate ump needs to ring him up there. End of story.

At least we won the game, unlike that one in Oakland a few weeks back. Another case of umps not being held accountable. I think Gardy has said it before, but umpires need to be calling balls and strikes, safe or out, not inserting themselves into the game and affecting the outcome. The "human aspect" of the game is the goddamn players not the umps.

Liriano to the DL, Humber up

2009-08-18T00:00:00-07:00

The Twins placed starting pitcher Francisco Liriano on the DL after last nights game. He managed to give up 7 runs in 2 innings of work, telling Gardy he had "nothing left in the tank". Not sure if he is physically or mentally done, but its probably both. He will be replaced with the always entertaining Phil Humber. Great.

The Twins have exactly two pitchers who I can count on to get outs: Guerrier and Nathan. They don't pitch early in the game though, so it doesn't matter. Baker seems to be coming around, but does it really matter? If we have 4 train wrecks and one decent pitcher in the rotation will that really help us make up the defecit in the division? I highly doubt it.

The worst part is that we are wasting incredible seasons from Mauer, Morneau and Kubel (and to a lesser extend Cuddyer). What reason does Joe Mauer have to stick around if we can't surround him with the pitching we need to win. I am in the camp that thinks he cares more about winning than the money (this may contradict something I have said earlier, but if you go back in the archives and look it up: fuck you). How can the Twins upgrade their pitching this offseason? It is clear there are problems in both the bullpen and starting rotation. If Bill Smith takes the "well, our young pitcher will surely rebound from a bad 2009 and pitch well in 2010 so I won't change anything" course of action, then he might as well book Joe a plane ticket to the east coast. We have to open up the wallet and probably overpay for some pitchers. It is damn near impossible to sign a good free agent player to a team friendly contract. When the Yankees signed Burnett to that 5 year deal, they probably knew he was going to be bad for the last two, but that is just the price you pay for talent on the open market. I don't know what pitchers will be available this offseason via trade or free agency, but we need to take a good look at all of them. I think we might have some bullpen answers in the system in Delaney and Slama, but as far as starting rotation? There isn't too much in the minors that we haven't already seen. Other than the Twins specialty, "projects to be a middle to back of the rotation starter at best, Phil Humber at worst".

What do you think the Twins can do to upgrade this offseason. Or, if you are the optimistic type, what can they do over the next six weeks to make a playoff push?

What a difference a day makes

2009-08-13T00:00:00-07:00

This has been the pattern for what seems like the entire season. The Twins lose a few (usually badly) and the sky is falling. Twins fans go into a panic. They start buying tickets to JFK or Logan for Joe Mauer. Then we win and the Tigers and White Sox lose. Suddenly we are just four games back. Everyone starts thinking "You know, that Liriano isn't so bad".

I admit, I think this way too. You'd be lying if you said you didn't. Thats why baseball is great. You can seemingly turn things around in one day. For better or worse. In football you have to wait a week, sometimes two.

Now that we have waxed poetically about the greatness of baseball, lets get back to the issues at hand. The Twins looked good last night. Awesome. But remember, it was against the Royals. They simply aren't good. One of the best things we can take from this is Liriano's performance. Yeah, he beat up on a mediocre lineup, but I think this will help his confidence immensely. He needed a good start, who cares who it is against.

After scrolling through the #Twins twitter feed last night, I noticed that many people were a little upset that both Guerrier and Nathan pitched last night in a "blow out" game. Nathan hadn't pitched in forever, so he needed the work. Not using him enough is almost as bad as using him too often. A lot of people were clamoring for Manship and so was I (Go Irish!), but its not that big a deal. If we only allowed Nathan to pitch in save situations he will have pitched something like 3 times since the all-star break. How is that good for him? I hate the save, and I really hate the role of "closer" in the sense that most AL managers use them. If we are up by 4 in the ninth with a murders row coming up, do we want to be using someone like Brian Duensing, or Joe Nathan? Its not a save situation you say? Duensing it is. That makes no sense to me, but I'm no big city lawyer (snaps suspenders).

Anyway, lets see if Pavano can have a repeat performance this afternoon. A series win will be big here, especially since it looks like the Tigers can't hang with the Red Sox.

Wasting a truly rare opportunity

2009-08-12T00:00:00-07:00

Everybody knows Mauer and Morneau are having great seasons, and I'm feeling pretty good about my Free Jason Kubel movement* from last year, and my criticism of the Cameron/Neyer Fuck Jason Kubel movement from the beginning of the season given that Kubel's jumped up to just about as good as Mauer and Morneau -- wait, just about as good? So the Twins have three of the top hitters in baseball this year?

* Although nobody else really followed the movement, and now the t-shirts make no sense, because why does he need to be freed now that he's one of the best hitters in the league? I think it's time for a new t-shirt.

According to Ken Funck at Baseball Prospectus, Mauer/Morneau/Kubel ranks 1-2-3 in the AL against RHP this year. That's nice, but you have to face LHPs too if you're going to be a star. So how do they fare? Once again, well: Mauer's 1st, Morneau's 2nd, and Kubel's 4th (Youkilis sneaks up into third place, the asshole). He points out that such a feat is extremely rare: the last time one team had the top two players in OPS and another in the top 6 was the 1960 Yankees, with Mantle, Maris, and Skowron.

He relaxed the numbers a little bit, just looking for teams with three players in the top six, and found that it's still rare but happens from time to time. It's become increasingly rare -- but has been the mark of extremely good teams. It's happened three times since the start of divisional play, and all the other teams to do it went to the World Series (1995 Indians, 1990 A's, 1971 Orioles). In fact ... guess who was the last team to have three such great players and not go to the World Series.

...

If you guessed the 1964 Twins, with Allison, Killebrew and Oliva, you'd be right. Good company the Twins aren't quite keeping, eh?

Funck has some amusing bits to say about the Twins:

The list is peppered with great players, great teams -- and the 2009 Twins, who seem to be displaying an innate talent for doing less with more. The vast majority of teams with three players managing such gaudy production also paced their league in Team OPS+, and were thus able to bludgeon their opponents into submission; the Twins are currently fourth. Is there a reason? Well, the tenets of Minnesota Nice would require me to describe the bottom of the Twins batting order as "really trying very hard."

Yes, great. So we've managed to put together step one of having a transcendently great team: a core of transcendently great players. Step two, of course, is filling out the roster with players who don't fucking suck ass at baseball at a monumental level, and I'll leave it to you to guess my thoughts on how we've done with step two.

Funck points out that merely upgrading a few of the spots in the lineup from "terrible" to "average" would go a long, long way to making this one of the (if not the) best offenses in the league -- and it's somewhat damning of the front office that they've done nothing to do this.

The point is, it would take very little to improve this lineup to leverage the rare and wonderful production currently provided by Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel, and the window to do so may soon close. The elephant in the corner of GM Bill Smith’s office is Mauer’s contract, set to expire at the end of 2010. Even if the Twins are able to re-sign the St. Paul native at a hometown discount, that contract, along with built-in raises for Morneau, Kubel, and Cuddyer (who has a team option), will mean even less financial flexibility starting in 2011. Minnesota’s home-grown hitters are in their prime, and it will be a shame if such a compelling concentration of hitting talent goes unrewarded.

Is anyone else feeling confident that Smith can make some sort of push (probably in the winter) to complement The Big Three J's with actual major league talent? I can't see any reason to be confident that this rare feat won't go unrewarded.

But for this season, the Twins get to be both of the teams in the last 50 years to have three of the best hitters in the league and manage to do nothing with them.

So we've got that going for us, which is nice.

The White Sox stealing Rios is a big problem for the Twins

2009-08-11T00:00:00-07:00

Yesterday, as I'm sure everyone knows by now, the White Sox acquired Alex Rios from the Blue Jays. Rios is the best position player on the Blue Jays, is 28 years old, and is under contract for the next 5 years. You might think the cost to acquire such a player would be staggering. You might think that if Bill Smith were to have engaged the Jays to ask for a trade, he'd come back and tell us they asked for our entire AA and AAA team, along with the Mississippi River and half of downtown Minneapolis. You don't just get star-level position players in their prime for peanuts!

Well, actually, if you're Kenny Williams of the White Sox, you can keep your peanuts. Because the cost to acquire Rios was ... nothing!

It's a good thing nobody's come out to question Smith about what he really means when he says the cost in prospects is too high for certain players. Because most of them move around to other teams for a lot less than he claims was demanded. You can either believe that teams are deliberately keeping the price really high just for the Twins, or you can believe that Bill Smith is a timid/incompetent negotiator, or that he's just afraid to do anything and is lying about everything. I'm leaning towards incompetence,* with maybe a little bit of liar thrown in.

* Hey, at least he's better than JP Ricciardi!

The Twins made their big trade acquisition Orlando Cabrera, and the White Sox went and got Peavy. I didn't much care for either move,* but I am particularly down on Peavy this year and in the coming years. Either way, there's no doubt that Williams was more aggressive that Smith in trying to improve his team both now and in the future. Then the Twins make their splash on the waiver wire, trading away a minor leaguer to be named later to get The Disabled List** into the starting rotation. And the White Sox respond by picking up a great outfielder in Alex Rios and give up nothing. Literally, nothing.

* Although the Cabrera trade has been working out great so far.

** As you may know, during Pavano's tenure with the Yankees, any time a player would get injured and go on the DL, the other players would call it "going on the Pavano." I think that's brilliant, and I'm trying to go with the reverse here. As in, instead of calling the DL the Pavano, I'm calling Pavano the Disabled List. I'm going to go ahead and say this could be as good a nickname as "The Blackburn" is. I'm going with it.

A lot of people have been saying the Blue Jays just had to get out from under Rios's terrible albatross of a contract. Fangraphs has been doing a good job of discounting that bullshit:

Rios is a +3.5 to +4.5 win player in the prime of his career, and he's due to make just under $60 million for the next five years. This is a really good contract for the Jays.* Rios is an outstanding player being paid less than his market value. He's as far from being a Wells-like albatross as you could possibly get.

Vernon Wells contract is awful, and the Jays have to regret giving it to him every single day. Alex Rios' contract is very good, and he's one of the pieces Toronto should be building around. They are in no way similar.

* Yeah, this was written a few weeks ago, before JP Ricciardi sealed his fate by letting this contract go. Now it's a good contract for the White Sox.

Alex Rios has an albatross contract in the exact same way that Delmon Young has a bad attitude. Which is to say that he's an outfielder on a team that happens to have another outfielder with a big problem -- in Rios's case, Vernon Wells is in a virtual tie with Barry Zito for the worst contract in baseball; and in Young's case, it was actually Elijah Dukes that had all the personal off the field problems -- and since most sportswriters can't be bothered to learn the names of players who don't play in either their own market or in a real market like Boston or New York, these guys are elided into one amalgamation of a bad guy/contract because of nothing more than proximity.

So the White Sox improve their team this year, and assuming that Rios's BABIP regresses to something realistic, they've improved themselves dramatically for next year and the next few years. Rios was an All Star caliber player exactly one year ago, and he's doing all the same things now except his BABIP has dropped. It'll come right back, and he'll once again be great.

Twins fans, meanwhile, get to hope that Delmon Young turns his career around (and soon) so they don't longingly eye every ledge they pass, wondering what it'd be like to replace the worst player in baseball with an ace and a star shortstop who happens to be 3rd in the batting title race.

Sure, it was an aggressive move by Williams, and the White Sox have taken on money. It's their money that allows them to be that aggressive -- but they're doing exactly the right thing and setting themselves up to be an absolute powerhouse in the AL Central. Kenny Williams, as a GM, is perfectly suited to a team in a large market with a large payroll and an owner that cares more about winning than money. As the Twins gain more revenue and are able to increase their payroll, it remains to be seen whether Bill Smith can adapt to the style necessary to work with dollar amounts that large, contracts that long, and players that good.

The early indications, by the way, are not good.

Useless Offday Thoughts: Stumbling, quick hits, Morneau, and quitting

2009-08-10T00:00:00-07:00

The Twins continued to stumble this weekend, dropping a series to the division-leading Tigers that they really shouldn't have. They're supposed to be able to handle Gallaraga -- and they didn't. They roughed up Verlander and newly acquired Pavano shined. They smacked around the Tigers' new toy Washburn, but "ace" Baker handed them more than we were able to score.

We've now lost seven of our last nine games, and are sliding pretty rapidly out of contention. The team is kind of up and down right now; winning big, losing big, losing close -- but never winning close. This weekend really demonstrated the team's penchant for that -- and it does make it feel like we're closer to being good than we probably are. It's getting really easy to look back at all these close games and pick out ones that we really should have won, that were just out of reach, that slipped from our grasp at the last moment.

Of course, it doesn't really work that way. You can only hope that we regress back to the mean in the near future -- but it's worth pointing out that the only accepted way to reliably outperform .500 in close games is to have a good, well managed bullpen with talented arms. I don't think I have to point out that the Twins don't have one of those; in fact, they don't have any part of that. It's a bad bullpen, with little talent, and it's managed poorly.* I don't think we'll be winning more than our share of close games in the coming weeks.

* I think it's worth pointing out that this doesn't matter. Gardy could be The Official Genius Of Bullpen Management Of All Time, and the pen would still suck -- there's no amount of "putting guys in at the right time" that can paper over the fact that none of them can get through a scoreless inning.

As you can probably tell, I'm not feeling very optimistic right now about the Twins' chances. But at least the early returns on the Pavano acquisition have been promising, and there's always the chance Smith stays active on the waiver wire like he said he would. Realistically, though, it's probably time to start taking what enjoyment you can from the games without hoping too much for a win, or being broken too much by a loss.

That it's happened in early-mid August is somewhat disappointing, but that's later than many teams.

But since this is an offday, which I still hate, let's get some craziness in here. It's time to start cheering up, folks.

For those of you who like a little schadenfreude -- I personally don't get off on it, but I know a lot of people love it -- it must feel good to see the Red Sox get swept by the Yankees and drop to 6.5 games back ... and into a tie with the Rangers for the wild card. If Boston fails to make the playoffs this year, I wouldn't be too surprised to see them go on a Yankee-esque spree over the offseason ... except without a free agent class as top heavy in talent.
I'm not a big rumors guy, but this talk of Alex Rios going to the White Sox on waivers frightens me. The mass media thinks it's a great move for the Blue Jays to shed that salary -- oh noes, he's signed for the next 5 years! -- because Rios isn't currently living up to the hype he created by being fairly awesome at a young age. I think it's kind of funny about Rios -- nobody really knew who he was while he was building up a case as a pretty damn good player, all of a sudden people noticed and he got a big contract and they started paying attention, and he's struggled a little bit to make the leap. So, given that he stumbled just while people were doing what they could to overrate him, the pendulum has now apparently swung back in full force. When Ken Rosenthal says the Blue Jays would simply be better off getting rid of his salary for nothing, that means he's "rated" pretty low. On the other hand, Rosenthal is kind of a nut, and he tries to create news, and he seems to have something against the Jays right now,* and Rios's contract is actually a bargain. I really hope the White Sox don't get their greedy little mitts on Rios -- that'd be a much more significant acquisition than Peavy, and would make their outfield (and lineup) pretty ridiculous. Can Bill Smith block this somehow? Do I have to go to Comiskey and start cutting phone lines or something?

* Remember all that "Halladay will be traded, I guaran-god-damn-tee it, because the Blue Jays suck now and will suck next year and will always suck so they don't deserve Halladay as much as real teams like the Yankees and Red Sox" nonsense? Well, Halladay didn't get traded. And Rosenthal still hasn't backed down on his bullshit. Or apologized to Jerod Morris for screaming at him for reporting things as if they're true when you pretty much just made them up on your own. Just saying.

I saw this morning an article about the interesting possibility of the collective bargaining agreement changing (soon?) to add a slotting system to the draft. I think Calcaterra's take is better than the original article, so if you're going to read only one then go for Calcaterra's (as usual). It's a good point that players who are drafted aren't even eligible to be in the union -- and most minor leaguers don't get to apply to be in the union either. You have to wait until you're on a 40 man roster. (I suppose that might be one reason the Twins talk about "rewarding" players by putting them on the 40-man, even though that sometimes leads to us losing a promising prospect in the Rule 5 draft.) I'm totally in favor of a slotting system in the draft, and it'd neuter the new strategy of the wealthy and successful teams to keep their farm system stocked -- paying way over slot for guys who slipped past where they should have gone due to "signability concerns." Take that out, and the draft's ostensible goal -- crappy teams get better picks so maybe they'll get less crappy -- is a little bit closer to reality. It may actually be possible that this changes in the next few years, and I'd be pretty happy about it.
Interesting article today over at The Hardball Times about the monster seasons being put together by Justin Morneau and Prince Fielder. It concludes with a bit of a fantasy slant, but the analysis of Morneau is pretty good:
While he had a great 2006, Morneau did not deserve the MVP that year. However, this season, he could top 130 RBIs and 39 home runs based on his ZiPS projections, which would actually beat his 2006 numbers. His wOBA is over .400 for the first time in his career, though it is still not at an elite level. This has a lot to do with his low OBP and walk rate. His walk rate has increased to 12.2 percent this year, but it is still far from great. His career OBP stands at .353, which trails Fielder's career mark of .379. Morneau's limitations in getting on base have dragged his runs totals down. Even in his 34 homer season in 2006, he only scored 97 runs, and he has never topped 100. He isn't a horrible run scorer, but in comparison to other first base options he could be better. It is worth noting that Morneau has a shot at his first 100 run season this year, but again, he could be scoring a lot more runs if his walk rate were better.

I've complained about Morneau's awful plate discipline in the past, and pointed out that I'm impressed that he's able to hit with such power and draw as many walks as he does while seeming to have intermittent (at best) ability to recognize a breaking ball and a penchant for chasing unhittable pitches low and away. Given that it's literally the only thing keeping him from being one of the elite players in the game. (I mean moreso.)

Oh. And there's one last thing. If you've gotten this far, you might want to do a little more reading. So I'll send you over to Posnanski, where he'll talk in his typically longwinded and brilliant style about what it means to "quit," especially when you're talking about a team sport. You know how people always say stuff like "oh, the team just quit," or "yeah they lost, but at least they didn't quit," et cetera? Well, that's what he's talking about. And I think he hits it right on the nose.

Quitting in sports isn’t about QUITTING. No, I think it’s about something else. While I don’t think that players ever stop TRYING to do well, I do think that in a bad environment players will stop believing that any of it matters very much. And I think that comes closest to what we’re talking about here. This might not be the best comparison — and you might not even relate to this — but for me there was always a very different feeling when we played baseball games around the neighborhood than we we played official Little League games. Sure, we TRIED in the neighborhood games. I would suggest we tried just as hard as we ever did in the real games. But we weren’t wearing uniforms, and we didn’t have coaches, and we we didn’t have dirt infields, and there were no repercussions for messing up other than your friends busting your chops. There was this sense that the Little League games MATTERED in a way that the neighborhood games did not. You played with a certain attention and inspiration that was missing in the neighborhood games.

Although I will say that I always felt the extra attention and inspiration in the neighborhood games much more than in the official games. Maybe they shouldn't have forced us to wear those stupid looking uniforms.

And after reading Posnanski's post, would you say the Twins have quit? I wouldn't.

That is all. Hopefully it tided you over a little bit while you contemplate why the Twins seem to have so many offdays lately.

The Metrodome's lease is good for the state, bad for the Twins

2009-08-08T00:00:00-07:00

As we're all well aware, the Twins' time in the Metrodome is rapidly winding down. Finally, the Twins will be playing beneath bright blue skies rather than a marshmellow swastika. There's been a lot of talk about how much more money will be available to the team once they're in the new stadium -- there have been plenty of complaints from the front office and the ownership over the years about how unfavorable their lease is and how signficantly it limits their ability to compete financially with other teams. How much more money, though, can the Twins expect?

I've frequently pointed out that the Twins are drawing really well this year -- in the top 5 or 6 in both attendance and TV viewership -- and are doing it in the 14th largest media market in the league. They should be generating a significant amount of revenue, and for some time I've been thinking that the front office is just complaining unnecessarily; they're making plenty of money, and just aren't being aggressive enough, or are valuing their profits more highly than they are the team's success. It's an easy trap to fall into, because it makes so much sense.

But it turns out that the Twins really do have a very unfavorable lease at the Dome; I'd assumed this for a while, and thought the money was going to the Vikings even when the Twins were the ones using the stadium. Instead, the beneficiaries of this lease are you chumps, the citizens of the state of Minnesota. According to some research by urban planner Judith Grant Long, analyzed by Baseball Prospectus' Neil deMause, the Metrodome is the most public favorable stadium currently in existence.

The best deal, meanwhile, is an unexpected one: the much-maligned Minneapolis Metrodome, which turns out to have actually produced a $107 million profit for the people of Minnesota. It is, in fact, the only stadium in existence for which the public came out in the black.

That $107M began in 1982 and is in inflation-adjusted dollars, so it's actually less than that in reality, but the point remains: the citizens of Minnesota have come out far better on the Metrodome deal than the Twins have, and far, far better than the citizens of any other state or city with a stadium -- including those with "privately funded" stadiums.

government negotiators made sure to recoup their costs with a lease that guaranteed the public more than half of gross concessions revenues, one-quarter of stadium ad revenue, and 100% of parking fees. Even after paying for stadium operations and without collecting property tax, that still leaves the Metrodome as the singular case of a stadium that turns a public profit. (This may also help explain Twins owner Carl Pohlad's incessant stadium demands* in the face of public disdain; notes Long, "Compared to the other owners, there's no question why he's a little peeved.")

With the new stadium, those revenues will no longer go to the state, but will instead flow into the team's coffers. It'll probably make ownership happier, but it's worth pointing out that we're only talking about a few million dollars per year. It remains to be seen how much the team's spending will increase. I anticipate it going up somewhat, but not game-changingly or anything.

* It's worth pointing out that this article was written in 2005, before Carl Pohlad's unfortunate passing and before the new stadium was agreed upon.

The most significant thing, I think, is that the fans keep coming out in droves and watching the games on television. If the Twins can start over-achieving their market-size, rather than under-achieving, it can only mean good things. And since I no longer live in Minnesota, the loss of the state's income stream doesn't hurt as much. (My taxes pay for the White Sox's bloated payroll, thank you very much.)

Liriano, finally, to the bullpen?

2009-08-06T00:00:00-07:00

Remember a while back, when I started pointing out that Liriano needs to step up his game significantly, or else our options are limited to sending him either to the minors or to the bullpen? Well, it sure hasn't looked like he's stepped up his game, has it? And Gardy has had just about enough of Liriano's crap, saying he'll make his next start but not necessarily any more after that:

"I plan on him probably going out there and making his next start, but I'll talk with [pitching coach Rick Anderson], and we'll see where we're at. "The options are very limited, we can't go with a four-man rotation. We just don't have much starting pitching left. It's not like we can say, 'Take him out and put those other guys in.' You start telling me who those other guys are, I'm sure some fans have some ideas, but they’re not on our ballclub."

Some fans probably do have some ideas, but Gardy's largely right -- we don't have anyone banging on the door of the rotation down in AAA, and without Slowey our rotation depth is pretty minimal. But I have an idea. Liriano to the bullpen, Duensing to the rotation. He's really the only "viable" starter we have left right now.

But I want to take a gander at what exactly has changed since I called for Liriano to go to the bullpen back in late June. His ERA coming into his June 23 start was 5.91, and right now it's sitting at 5.63 (event taking into account his last 2 starts, which were both unmitigated disasters). In the 7 starts since June 23, he has an ERA of 5.09, which while horrible is considerably better than the 6.08 ERA he had in the previous 7 starts, or the 5.75 ERA he had in his first 7 starts.

So basically, while I agree that something needs to be done about Liriano, and we can't keep running him out there, and if he doesn't start to put together some strong starts he's got to be out of the rotation ... I'm a little bit confused as to what Gardy's reasoning is here. It's not like he's getting worse ... in fact he's (extremely slowly) getting better (though not enough). If you're willing to consider removing him from the rotation, why do it after this set of 7 starts? Why not the first 7 which was really horrible, or the second 7, which was even worse, rather than the third 7, which was the best of the three? Are we making this decision based only on his last two starts, over which he gave up 10 runs in 10.1 IP, for an 8.71 ERA? That's not even his worst two start stretch this season -- that's an honor that goes to his starts on May 20 and 25, during which he gave up 12 ER in 8 IP, for a 13.50 ERA -- and were the beginning of a stretch of 3 games in which he only went 4 IP per game.* If you're going to decide to remove someone from the rotation ... wouldn't that be a better place to start considering it than, you know, 10+ starts later?

* The third start of that stretch was Liriano's nadir, when his season ERA ballooned to 6.60 ... and from there it had gone down every time until July 20 when he started getting rocked again. Well, rocked still ... but even worse.

And do you really trust Rick Anderson to make the right decision about Liriano? I was talking about this with my dad during last night's game -- Rick Anderson's reputation may be completely undeserved. Was it not Cuellar working with our guys in the minors that honed their talent? Not Rick Anderson? And fine, the major league pitching coach doesn't develop the young pitchers, he helps them make adjustments and tweak some things while their in the majors. Anderson's a big sinkerball guy, which doesn't explain the fact that any pitcher on our team that had any success did it with the changeup. And, the coup de grace -- our pitching staff has gotten markedly worse every year since Radke retired.

So I'm going to go ahead and say it. From 2002-2006, our pitching coach -- the guy who works with the young guys, helps them with a new grip on their changeup, and helps them make adjustments -- was not Rick Anderson, but rather Brad Radke. From 2007-2009, the pitching coach actually was Rick Anderson. Anyone want to go out on a limb and say which guy did a better job?

Given that there's no chance Rick Anderson gets fired, and there's no chance Liriano improves ... what do we do? My take, as mentioned, is to put Liriano into a 7th inning role, and move Duensing into his spot in the rotation. (And also kill Keppel and send Crain to the minors, replacing them with Delaney and Slama ... and evaluate Morillo's command to see if we can also replace Dickey and his collapsing knuckleball/meatball repertoire.)

Weekend Recap

2009-08-04T00:00:00-07:00

I was in Washington, DC over the weekend so I was unable to witness the beatdown that was the Twins-Angels series. Thankfully.

Since we last blogged, the Twins acquired shortstop Orlando Cabrera from Oakland. I have no problem with this trade, since we didn't have to overpay for two months of a shortstop who is only slightly better than what we have. My bigger concern is that we didn't address the pitching needs. Many effective relievers were swapped for reasonable prices, but Smith has told the press that the asking prices were 4 of our top prospects for Michael Wuertz. I (and many other bloggers) find this hard to believe.

The Twins pitching staff as a whole is falling apart. When was the last time one of our starters had a quality start against a non-divisional opponent? When we played Texas two weeks ago? The bullpen is just as bad. Every reliever we have with the exception of Joe Nathan and possibly Matt Guerrier are totally out of their element when pitching in late and close situations. This division is very winnable, but the two teams ahead of us added effective arms, and we stood pat. That is not a way to catch and pass the teams leading you. While I hope Washburn comes back to earth over the next two months, spacious comerica park and Curtis Granderson in CF seems like a situation in which he can continue to thrive. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Everyone says trades can still be made in August, but I just don't think our front office is capable of pulling that off. They simply seem to be incapable of fixing this team on the fly. Hell, they seemed incapable of fixing the team in the offseason. If we don't make a run this year, Bill Smith and co. really need to aggressively add pieces to build a winner around Mauer. If they do not do this, can we blame him for leaving? I don't think so.

Useless Offday Thoughts: Morales, Young, Casilla, DOrtiz

2009-07-30T00:00:00-07:00

You know what I hate? Offdays. But you know what I love? Useless Offday Thoughts! So let's get some.

Despite missing the first month of the season and slumping for the most recent one, Mauer has produced this year like a transcendent superstar -- he's put together 43.4 Runs Above Replacement so far this year, which is amazing at this point of the year even without considering the time missed. Everyone knows this -- everyone also knows that Morneau has done pretty well, at 35.6 RAR he's also a pretty big star.

Aside from the two superstars, we also have Kubel and Crede over 20 RAR, at 21.9 and 21.1, respectively, along with a couple more solid players in Span and Cuddyer at 18.9 and 12.5 RAR on the year so far. So how can a team with 2 superstars, 2 good regulars, and 2 more solid regulars end up with a bad offense? Well, before I answer that, guess who the 7th best offensive regular has been thus far.

Seriously, guess.

I didn't think you'd get it -- it's Jose Morales. That's right, in extremely limited time in the majors, during which Gardy kept him on the bench as much as possible, Morales produced 7.0 RAR. I'm not advocating for that much more playing time for Morales, after all I'd like Mauer to get as much time at catcher as possible. And he's proven extremely durable so far this year, and Redmond hasn't been an unmitigated disaster as a backup -- I mean, he sucks, and at $1M per year we'd expect him to produce about 0.2 WAR. He's at 0.1 so far, so he's right on pace to be exactly what we're paying him for.

The problem is not Morales or Redmond. The problem is that the rest of the team has been unable to produce more in the entire season (so far) than Morales produced in a month and a half of extremely (and unacceptably) limited playing time. After a good week, Gomez has jumped up to 4.0 RAR (0.4 WAR), making him the last guy on the roster that isn't replacement-level or worse. (And knowing Gomez, he'll be right back down at 0.1 by Monday.)

Redmond, Punto, Harris, and Buscher are all completely replaceable at 1.0 RAR. The real problem, of course, is the guys coming in below them: Tolbert at -9.3, Young at -13.3, and Casilla at -13.7 RAR, all in very limited playing time, have been hemorrhaging wins from this team. If none of them had played at all this season, and instead we'd had easily found AAA-caliber players at their positions, we'd be more than 3 wins better right now, and would be in first place. So the next time you wonder about what it'd be like to be leading the division, don't blame Mauer and Morneau for not being better, and don't blame Bill Smith for failing to acquire a top player at one of our positions of need, and don't blame the pitching (too much) -- just blame the fact that Tolbert, Casilla, and Young are fucking terrible at baseball and have sucked as much as anyone in the league.

Oh, another useless thing. Apparently David Ortiz tested positive for steroids in 2003. The famous list of 104 strikes again -- boy is it a good thing that thing wasn't destroyed like it should have been, right? Of course, it was pretty obvious that DOrtiz had done steroids as soon as he went to the Red Sox -- in 2003. He went from a 120 OPS+ to a 144 OPS+ right then (which is a big jump), from 1.3 WAR straight to 3.4 WAR. From a merely good hitter to one of the best in the league. Subjectively, he went from a regular-sized guy who wasn't good enough at hitting to stick as a DH and wasn't good enough at fielding to stick as a 1B to a big fat slugger pounding homers at a prodigious rate. Pictures of him before 2003 are tough to find, but the last time I looked he'd put on a whole lot of weight as soon as he put on a Red Sox uniform.

That's all fine. But can we be sure he started in 2003 once he got to the Red Sox, and never did anything when he was with the Twins? I don't think so. He was starting to get bigger in his last season with the Twins, he did hit 20 HR, and his OPS+ in previous seasons? 101 and 106, before his 120 in 2002. He very well may have noticed that the Twins weren't high on him, and that he was at risk of washing out of the league. You can't be sure. But that's not my problem. I've pretty much gotten over all this steroid bullshit.

My problem now is that these names keep getting leaked to the press, one or two at a time. The test was supposed to be anonymous, and the list was supposed to be destroyed years ago. It wasn't, of course. And now some dickhead lawyers are keeping up a slow trickle of names. My take on that? I think every time the steroid conversation subsides a little bit, these guys leak the next biggest name on the list. It's basically as sleazy as possible, and given how many more names are on that list, this is going to continue for a long time. My advice? Don't get too worked up. It's just not worth it any more.

Oh ... one last thing. I'd hereby like to apologize to Garrett Jones. I know he's having a great time for the Pirates right now, really hitting the crap out of the ball -- but that's all about to end. I picked him up for my fantasy team, and if there's one thing I know about guys on my fantasy team, it's that they immediately start sucking. Or get injured.

Alright everyone, hopefully this little bit of rambling tided you over a little bit during this brutal offday. I know it helped me. Tomorrow, we start a pretty big series against the Angels. Go Twins.

Trades, Sanchez, Duensing

2009-07-30T00:00:00-07:00

Last week everyone was down, and the impression I got was that the Twins were in the process of losing a bunch of fans for the season; after sweeping the White Sox, some of those fans might be sticking around for a little while longer. Last week it was clear to everyone -- including the front office -- that the team needed to add players in order to stick around in the divisional race; now, though, the front office doesn't seem to be in panic mode any more. I can't say the same thing about the #Twins stream on Twitter, though. After spending some time following that, I'm pretty sure the sky is falling. If it hasn't fallen already.

The big acquisition the Twins failed to make in the last week was Freddy Sanchez. He's a solid second baseman who can hit for average and has a vesting option for next year (which he's sure to get). He would have been a defensive improvement at 2B over Casilla, and could have slotted very nicely into the 2-hole between Span and Mauer, alleviating Gardy's fear of batting Mauer second. I thought getting Sanchez would have been huge, and that the Twins should go after him.

Well, he was traded yesterday, and (in case you feel like being surprised) it wasn't to the Twins. He went to the Giants. And before everyone gets their blood boiling about it, this was definitely one of those times when the Twins were legitimately outbid. We all know it's the Twins' constant position that acquiring people in trades costs too much, and every GM is asking for way too much, and blah blah blah, the result is that they didn't do anything and then the guy gets traded for a couple of nobodies who'll never make it to the majors. This is not one of those times. The Giants gave up a pitcher named Tim Alderson, who at 20 years old is holding his own at AA in a hitting-friendly environment with guys 2-3 years older than he is. He was rated as the 26th best prospect in all of baseball. The Giants gave up a whole lot for the privilege of paying Sanchez $11M through 2010, and I don't think the Twins should have tried to outbid them.

In all likelihood, the fact that the Giants gave up so much says to me that the Twins were serious about getting Sanchez. That Smith offered a pretty good package, and the Giants' GM is a more aggressive guy and is going for it this year and tried to shoot the moon. I think it's better to make no deal than to make a bad deal, and giving up more than Alderson was a pretty bad deal. At least our involvement is going to kill the Giants in 3 years and make Sabean look like even more of an idiot than he already looks. That counts for something, right?

With about 36 hours or so left until the trade deadline, I don't think the Twins are going to make any moves. I think Smith spent most of his time trying to get Sanchez, and I think offering so much* and getting turned down probably rattled him. As you can probably tell, I'm not high on Smith's emotional strength. So what I'm saying is don't get your hopes up that there'll be a new face in the locker room this weekend -- we're going to have to get by with what we've got, just like every year.

* Yes, I'm going to assume we offered a lot until I hear otherwise. As I mentioned, if we didn't, then there's no reason to think Sabean would have given up Alderson.

And I don't think that's a bad thing. It's kind of a part of the identity of the Twins, year in and year out. You can scream as loud as you want that the team owes you something, but they consistently contend and make money, and they wouldn't do either of those things (consistently) if they threw a bunch of prospects away at the deadline every year.

I think a much more interesting development, one that might give us some hope, is Duensing's start last night against the White Sox. I'd always kind of liked him as he was coming up through the minors (as a starter), but he'd performed extremely poorly in the majors in his 9 relief appearances. I was not confident at all that he'd be able to do much in his start, and thought we'd get our doors blown off. Instead, he looked pretty good. His best pitch is his curveball, and he hadn't been using that as a reliever -- it looked pretty good to me in his start. He shut the White Sox down for 5 innings, giving up just 2 solo homers (a young Twins pitcher prone to giving up home runs? No way!), and kept us in the game. And he didn't get knocked out after 5 IP -- he'd thrown only 64 pitches, which is pretty efficient work. He's just not stretched out right now after spending a bunch of time in the bullpen.

In my opinion, Duensing has earned another start, and I think it should come at the expense of Liriano. He continues to look bad, and now he's hurt his forearm. Time to shut him down for a while and see what we've got in Duensing. If he can stretch out a little and give us what we got last night over 6-7 innings most times out, we'll win a whole lot of those games. I'm just a little wary of the fact that he only struck out 2 guys -- that's what Perkins and Blackburn were doing during their periods of success, and it turned out to be unsustainable.

We're in second place, two games behind an extremely flawed Tigers team that's clutching to its winning ways, and has been doing it longer than I thought they could. I still expect them to fall apart at some point in the next couple of months. The Twins are in a pretty good spot right now. And while adding a guy or two would sure help, it's really not worth getting so worked up over.

Really, what did you expect?

Not good enough

2009-07-24T00:00:00-07:00

Another brutal loss last night, this one because Nathan blew a rare save. That happens, I guess. It's hard to take right now, especially given the stretch we're in, but there's nothing wrong with Nathan, and we'll continue to win right around 90% of the games we're leading in the 9th inning. The remaining 10% do hurt a lot, though. I think Gardy can feel what we're feeling too, by the way.

"We're in one of those stretches where you have to keep battling," he said. "You've go to work your way out of it. No one is going to give you anything. No one is going to feel sorry for you in this game. If they start feeling sorry for themselves, shame on them. I don't feel sorry for myself as the manager of this team. You have to keep playing. You have to keep going out there and trying to figure out how to win ballgames."

I've seen a lot of fans screaming, lately*, about the lack of aggressive moves by the front office. Just make some trades, damn it! Steal us some pieces without giving up anything in return! But is it really a good idea?

* When I say "lately," what I really mean is "today," specifically. If you haven't seen the open letter to Twins management that's been bouncing around the Twins Twitterverse this morning, you might want to go read it. I mean, just to be caught up and all. I think most of it is pretty off base, myself.

The problem with this team is that they're not good enough. And when I say that, I mean it in the most profound, complete sense that anyone can possibly* mean it.

* I'm not kidding. Read on. If you've gotten this far, you should really continue. Is it natural that I have this ongoing fear that people read about the first third of every one of my posts and then just bomb the browser tab, possibly cackling ominously? I should probably think of some way to get over that. It can't be healthy.

This team is not good enough as it is right now to compete for, well, anything. They also don't have any bigtime prospects that other teams value and would offer difference-making players for -- and that's a good thing, because the Twins are more than one or two pieces away from being good enough.

When you look at your team in mid-July and say "Okay, we just need 3 infielders, an outfielder, a starting rotation, and a bullpen," then it's not time to be a buyer at the trade deadline. It's time to wonder how you're only 2.5 games back in the division, and wonder if it even matters, when there are real contenders to play against in the playoffs.

But you know what else this team isn't good enough at? They're not even good enough to be sellers. I suppose that's part of being a young team across the board; if you're in a position where you should be a seller at the deadline, you can't because you don't even have any movable assets in the majors. Who's the only person the team might be able to move? Cuddyer? What team is going to make a deadline deal to improve their team and give up a prospect for Michael Cuddyer? It's not happening.

So while it's frustrating to hear Gardy talk about the need to keep on battling, and it feels like they're just sitting on their hands and doing nothing in their ivory tower on Kirby Puckett Place, the front office has certainly appraised their chances and seen that a) they have too much buying to do, b) they don't have anything to buy with, c) they have nothing to sell. So yes, the only thing they can do is "keep battling," and hope that the 25 hits that Punto and Casilla get for the rest of the year happen at opportune times.

The question they have to ask, though, is whether the fans will watch that. I suppose we all have to ask ourselves that too.

My answer is yes, I will watch. I'll watch every game, I'll still fume when we lose and feel like we're a couple good hits away from the World Series when we win. I'm not getting off this roller coaster until they kick me off.

I don't know what that says about me, though. I doubt it's good. And if too many people feel that way, then what incentive does the front office have to do anything?

Another rough night

2009-07-24T00:00:00-07:00

There wasn't really one thing that went wrong last night. Nathan screwed up. I think he can do that once every 25 times he pitches or so. Instead of 25 times every one time he pitches, Jesse Crain style.

Other than that I don't have much to say. I'm out of town this weekend so maybe me not watching the Twins will cause them to win. Stranger things have happened.

Red Flags?

2009-07-23T00:00:00-07:00

Alright, remember when that AAA umpire blew a call at the plate to end the game on Monday? You know, that game where we blew the 10 run lead? Okay, now that I've brought back a bunch of bad memories for you, let me change the subject a little. Apparently, after that game, Gardy started lobbying for a rule change -- red flags:

"I've said it all along, I want a red flag," Gardenhire said Tuesday. "If you use it and you're wrong, you don't get the red flag the rest of the game. But if you use it and you're right, you get your red flag back. ... Last night would have been a great red flag game. I could have thrown it out there and then they could have run and checked the replay. It would have been perfect. "Football has a red flag. Why can’t we? Keep it in my sock like they do."

My first reaction, upon reading that, was that Gardy should call the NFL. The replay rules would be a LOT better if the coach didn't lose a challenge for being correct. You should be able to challenge 10 times in a game if the ref keeps getting calls wrong.

I then waited a couple days for my thoughts on this issue to percolate.* I think I'm finally ready to talk about it. Also, I felt it'd be wise to delay this so it didn't come off as complaining about that particular play. That's really not the point of this.

* Ferment, perhaps. Rot? What happens to an idea once it gets a little over-ripe?

How would this work in baseball? I'm a big proponent of instant replay -- I think they waited too long to institute it for home run calls, and I think they should do it for foul balls and close plays at bases.* But I also think it shouldn't be the field umpires who all get together and talk over the call in secret, hidden away in a dark room somewhere in the mystical bowels** of the stadium. There should be a team of replay officials who are NOT umpires, but are employed by the league, and they should be in a booth somewhere in the stadium, and they should choose what plays will be reviewed and alert the umpires to wait while they do it. There should be a camera on them while they review, and it should be shown both on television and in the stadium. Everything about this would be better.

* I am also in favor of using a computer to call balls and strikes; in what sense is letting a curmudgeonly 60 year old who's losing his eyesight blow calls because he can't see the ball "good for baseball," or any such nonsense? It's bullshit, and the problem needs to be addressed.

** First time anyone has ever used the phrase "mystical bowels" in a sentence? I hope so.

But I'm getting away from myself a little bit. What of this red flag idea of Gardy's? Calcaterra's take is that "if you have an idea to improve baseball, and your reasoning in support of it requires you to cite football's adoption of said idea, it is ipso facto a bad idea." He calls it the "Carlin Rule" in honor of George Carlin's brilliant football vs baseball sketch. Noted Twins-hating windbag Rob Neyer attempts to "throw a wet blanket on Ron Gardenhire's recommendation that baseball be football-ized," calling it a lousy idea.

From an aesthetic perspective, frankly, I love the idea. I love it when managers start throwing things, and this would be something they'd be allowed to throw, presumably every few games. Sounds like a lot of fun.

In the end, though, I don't like it very much. Would managers have to throw the red flag on home run calls? That doesn't seem right -- they can't really see, they don't get a good view of the replay, they'd just be guessing, and really, we just want the call to be correct. Let someone outside the heat of the game decide whether to review the home run calls. And while we're at it, it should be someone outside the game that decides to review any reviewable call. If the manager has a little red flag to throw, perhaps in addition to The Benevolent Reviewing Dictator, the Dictator would be loathe to automatically review anything -- expecting the manager to initiate every review.* And that sucks.

* I think there are a few reasons for that. Cover-Your-Ass, certainly, would play a part. If the Dictator waits for the manager to initiate every review, he can never be second guessed on his "decisions." I think that'd be a huge problem.

The only input the manager should have over whether a call gets replayed is to go yell at the umpire to delay the game a little bit while the Dictator and his band of merry men decide whether to review. If the manager gets ejected during said delay, well, great. But lose the red flags.

I want the calls to be right, and I want them to be consistent. I don't trust umpires in either regard, and if a manager loses his flag on a close call early in the game he'd be unable to challenge an egregious call later on. The Benevolent Reviewing Dictator and his Band of Merry Men is a more elegant solution than the NFL's red-flag-tossing situation, and I think it suits baseball a whole lot better than a secret meeting of reluctant umpires.

What the F was that?

2009-07-21T00:00:00-07:00

There will be no discussion of last nights "game". That is all.

They are not what we thought they were

2009-07-21T00:00:00-07:00

Sometimes a game comes along that makes you change what you think of a team. I'd say such a game typically involves a comeback of some sort, either by the team or its opponent. Last night, I think, was one of those games. All season I've basically been of the opinion that the Twins are a pretty good team, perhaps a 90 win team, and they just need to bide their time around .500 until they get hot and make a run to the playoffs. I kept waiting for it to happen, as June passed, and as July passes. After the happenings of last night, though, I've begun to think it's just not going to happen. Not this year.

Everybody knows about the game. They know that Kubel swung like an MVP, and that Morneau had 7 RBI by the 2nd inning. That we were winning 12-2 in the 3rd. That a few bad plays by Punto and Morneau extended innings that led to the A's scoring runs. That Blackburn turned into Blackburn of last year, and given a lead does everything he can to give it back. That we lost the lead on a grand slam backed up by a solo shot. That Cuddyer was safe at home but the game ended anyway. And that we lost, and that hearts were broken.

Maybe it was fatigue that shortened Punto's arm, the reason he couldn't get the ball across the diamond. Maybe Morneau was tired from the long, late flight, and from swinging so hard early in the game, and that was why he couldn't snag those tough throws and why he missed that popup. Maybe Blackburn was tired, which is why his pitches had no movement and were basically batting practice, why he did everything he could to give back the lead.

Maybe Gardy was most tired of all. Maybe that's why Duensing was warming up for three innings before he finally entered the game. Maybe that's why Redmond batted and Mauer pinch hit for Casilla -- and then entered the game as the catcher.* Maybe that's why Keppel came in with the bases loaded -- has he stranded an inherited runner all season? Was there any doubt those runs would score? The only surprise in my mind was that Keppel went on to give up 3 of his own.

* Seriously, the idea was to take both Redmond and Casilla out of the game. So you have the following options for who hits against a right handed reliever: Redmond/Mauer, Mauer/Buscher, Mauer/Crede. Tell me which one of these makes more sense. Okay, now take into account that Redmond promptly grounded into a double play, and that Mauer pinch hit with 2 outs and the bases empty. Which makes the most sense now? And another thing -- once the double play happened, why not save Mauer for the 9th to hit instead of Punto? He's not going to hit a game tying homer.

In the end, Cuddyer was called out at home, and we lost the game. Sure, he wasn't actually out. Sure, it was a bad call. But it sure wasn't the reason we lost the game. If anything, it was the umpire saying "You idiots deserve to lose this game." And he was right.

"There was no doubt in my mind I was safe," Cuddyer said. "Definitely, Cuddy was safe," Gardenhire said. "There’s no doubt about that. A little bit of a bad call there ... but we also shot ourselves in the foot."

I'm pretty sure this is made funnier by the fact that Posnanski just wrote yesterday about how much he hates it when teams, managers, players, etc complain about bad breaks. About injuries, about bad calls, about the things that go against them. And about how it's all bullshit, because that happens to everyone. You make your own breaks. Cuddyer defended himself last night, but Gardy was right on.

Gardy was right about something else, too.

"You don’t even know how to describe this game," Gardenhire said, "because this stuff doesn’t happen very often."

No, it doesn't happen very often. But when it does, you know you're not a very good team.

Knocking Casilla for the wrong reasons

2009-07-17T00:00:00-07:00

The always entertaining Jim Souhan wrote an article today in the Star Tribune about the Twins trade prospects. He basically says "don't hold your breath for Freddy Sanchez" Which is actually a good point. However, he does repeatedly make statements that upset me more than anything else in all of sports journalism.

Have you ever been watching a basketball game with someone, and their favorite team is losing and they lament "If we made our shots, we'd be winning" Um, duh. Souhan has this gem in the middle of the article

When Casilla failed to maintain a professional demeanor and approach earlier this season, he left the Twins with a shallow and slow lineup

Why is it his lack of professionalism? Why can't it be he simply isn't good. That the Casilla we saw briefly was just a flash?

Casilla will start at second base today. If he can be a professional, the Twins could become a dynamic offensive team again

I can be professional while playing baseball. It doesn't mean I will be any good. I act very professionally at my job, and do it quite well. Articles like this are just perpetuating the stereotype started by Gardy that Casilla is nothing more than a lazy Latin player who can't focus. I want to like Casilla. Just like I want to like Young. Why doesn't anyone else get blamed for Casilla's struggles? Don't you think all the times Gardy jerked him in and out of the lineup and threw him under the bus made him feel more confident? Maybe he still has lingering hand problems going back to last season. Souhan writes as though Casilla chooses to play poorly. I do not think this is the case. I think if he played for a manager who had some faith in him, he could succeed.

He doesn't specify how Casilla can play better, just that he needs to. The Monty Burns approach to managing "You Strawberry, hit a homerun"

I understand that mental lapses can kill a team, but is the team doing anything to help Alexi get over them? Has anyone noticed that the only native Spanish speakers on the 25 man roster (now) are Casilla, Gomez, Mijares, and Liriano. That includes coaches. Four of the youngest and most inexperienced guys on the team. Also, 3 of those guys get most of the negative press. Casilla gets called out in this Souhan article, it seems like everyday we read a "Liriano needs to pitch better or he will be moved to the bullpen" piece, and there is the "We traded Santana for Gomez? WTF?" piece quite often. There can't be too many positive vibes coming from the Twins Latin community.

This post wasn't written to rip on Souhan or his column (well, it kind of was), but after reading him it got me thinking about why Casilla has done poorly. Could it possibly have anything to do with the lack of Spanish speakers in the clubhouse? We have to be the only Major League team without a latino coach. Now, I don't think we should hire one for the sake of hiring one, but I think it would really help our young Spanish speaking players get adjusted to the game and feel more comfortable. Especially when they are struggling like they are.

All-Star Game

2009-07-16T00:00:00-07:00

I know the All-Star game was on Tuesday, and this is Thursday, but I wanted to post some comments anyway. Now, I have mixed feelings about the all-star game. The fact every team needs a rep and it counts doesn't make sense to me. Either let managers manage to win, or tell them it doesn't matter and to have fun. You can't have both, Bud.

Every all-star game has its flaws. The NBA plays no defense (as if they ever do), the NHL plays their game on a Tuesday afternoon on versus or some crap, and the Pro-Bowl exists. So of the four major sports I would say baseball is the best. I also think the baseball all-star game is the most salvageable. Those comments deserve their own post, though

This years game was actually quite good. The managers managed to win. The game moved at a nice pace (maybe that is because no Red Sox or Yankee starting pitchers got into the game). It was played like a real god-damned baseball game. I hope this has become the norm and not the exception to the rule. Most times I find myself watching something else and flipping back to the all-star game every so often, but this year I was glued to my set. I even watched all the pre-game stuff. Joe Buck is still terrible, and the fact that he fake laughed directly into his mic when Obama told the "we're out of money" joke was awful. I enjoyed the fact that a) Obama cheered for one team and didn't wear a generic MLB jacket (even if it is the dastardly white sox) and b) he hated on the Nats. This comes from someone who has never and will never vote democrat in his life. So take your compliments, because those will be the last you ever get from this guy.

The Twins are off today, but start a 9 game west coast road trip starting Friday in Texas. What are the chances that while playing in the brutal heat on Sunday, Mike Redmond suffers heat stroke and goes on the DL? I kind of hope its high, because that is the only way Morales will get any PT behind Mauer. Not that I wish ill will on Redmond, but Morales is just the better player. Simple as that.

All-Star Break Open thread

2009-07-14T00:00:00-07:00

Well, we are entering the worst 48 hours of the year for sports (so basically the worst 48 hours for anything). I'm going to use this opportunity to get a few mini-rants out in the open and you all can do the same in the comments.

First, what would a series of rants be without a Nick Punto rant. For some reason I found myself reading Sid Hartman the other day and he had this quote from Gardy
- Nicky can play anywhere," Gardenhire said. "He's a glove guy. ... He's good everywhere you put him. He's great at third base. He's plays great at short. He plays great at second. He can flat-out pick it
Ok, Gardy. If Punto's value comes from his being able to play three infield positions reasonably well, doesn't locking him in at second base eliminate most of his value? I think it does, and therefore he should be made a full-time utility player. Not a starter.
Another quote from the same article "If everybody else does their job in the lineup, Nick Punto is fantastic. When other people start struggling ... then people starting saying, maybe he can't hit" So basically what you are saying, Ron, is that the reason Punto is hitting 200 is because everyone else around him is sucking? We aren't giving Punto enough lineup protection? Are you f-ing serious? He also says "He's hit .280 in this league". Yes he has. But he has also hit .200. He just flat out can't hit enough to justify playing everyday. I just don't get it. Would we instantly turn into the worst team ever if we didn't play Punto everyday? Gardy seems to think so.
I was happy with Mauer's performance in the derby last night. As we learned from last year, nobody remembers who won the previous year. ESPN made it seem as if Josh Hamilton won, when it was really some dude named Jason Morneau who only has one MVP award. Loser. Joe didn't get shutout (suck it Tigers) and he was in a "swing off" with the AL and NL HR leaders. Not bad. He was also wearing some sweet yellow kicks.
All-Star Game. Here is what I think. Either don't make it count, and keep the rules the same. Or, make it count and eliminate the stupid "one player from every team" rule. I know pretty much every baseball-related blog has had something on this topic this week, and we at firegardy don't want to be left out. You are basically telling a manager he has to manage to win, but then handcuffing him when it comes to constructing his roster. I still don't get why Charlie Manuel pick Ryan Howard as a replacement, thus giving him about 12 first baseman (remember: No DH) on his team. I like that the AL has Youklis and Zobrist. Gives them quite a bit of positional flexibility. If its a close game I wonder if Maddon will use Mauer late into the game so the NL can't run all over Victor Martinez.
Trade deadline: The MLB trade deadline is July 31st. Will the Twins make a move? Don't hold your breath. I think the move to bring Casilla back means they are going to try to make a run with what they have. Maybe they can deal for a bullpen arm. But there doesn't seem to be much out there. I think one of the moves that MUST be made involves Anthony Slama. If we can bring a hard throwing, strikeout pitcher up, why the hell not? Can't hurt.
I tihnk this 9 game, west coast road trip is do or die for the Twins. If we can't come back home with at least a 5-4 record, we might be in trouble. We have been playing well on the road lately, but a lot of that was against NL teams. Doesn't really count.
What are your mid-season thoughts? I will be weakly attempting to constantly update the All-Star game via Twitter (@Robert_Short) but no promises.

Mid-Season Update

2009-07-09T00:00:00-07:00

Before the season we here at firegardy (well, I guess just me) made pre-season predictions. They can be found here. I'm not doing so well. The Indians, Cubs, A's (The A's, what the hell was I on when I wrote that!?), and Mets picks look pretty bad now. The Yankees and Rays are both in playoff contention, so its still too early to write those off as bad picks. The Sizemore for MVP pick doesn't look so hot because a) the Indians suck, and b) he has been hurt. The Grienke for CY Young is still possible. As is Gardy for manager of the year. However, its pretty clear that someone like Ron Washington will get that unless the Rangers absolute tank the rest of the year. My NL MVP and CY Young picks are still possible, but Johan isn't really the frontrunner for the Cy right now. If he tears it up in the second half as usual, that will help both my Cy Young pick and NL Wild card pick.

How did your picks hold up?

A long overdue Rocky IV reference

2009-07-09T00:00:00-07:00

If the head coach of the University of Michigan lost to Ohio State every year, that is basically grounds for firing. Ron Gardenhire has a sub 300 winning percentage against the Yankees since he became the Twins manager in 2002. That isn't good. I'm not sayin he should be fired for losing to a team we only play seven times a year, but he needs to tell the players that we aren't facing Ruth and Gehrig everytime we play them. We need to cut them, like in Rocky IV, after Rocky makes Drago bleed and Duke (his trainer) says "You see? You see? He's not a machine, he's a man, he's a man" Well right now, the Twins think the Yankees are a machine. If Liriano can come out today and shut them down for 7 innings he can show the rest of the team that they are just men. Same as any other team (just more expensive).

When we faced the Yankees back in May we walked them twice as much as they normally draw walks on a per game basis. I'm pretty sure this is because our pitchers were scared of them. Swarzak didn't look too bad last night and he didn't give up. He kept trying to make his pitches, but those damn Yankees are so damn patient. Jerks.

Let's hope the title of my next blog post can be "They're cut! The Yankees are cut!", and not "If they die, they die".

A look at Cuddyer, his contract, and his eyes

2009-07-08T00:00:00-07:00

Remember all that talk a while back about Cuddyer's contract? I talked about it back in March; while Tim Dierkes rated his deal as one of the worst current contracts in baseball, I pointed out that "it’s not out of the question that he returns to his 2007 form this year in 400-450 PA or so." And that basically, while 2008 was a throwaway year,* if 2009 and 2010 are reasonably good years the contract won't have been that bad.

* If you want an easy way to look at disastrous contracts, look for everyone who gets injured and then make fun of the GM. You can try to price in some injury risk, but if you demand a "30% catastrophic injury discount," any agent worth being an agent will laugh in your face and walk out of the room. This risk is part of doing business, and I think it's cheap to retroactively decide that the GM made a bad move based on injuries that sap a player's ability for a year.

So ... how's that contract looking at the moment, with Cuddyer hitting .277/.358/.523 with 14 HR, 18 2B, 46 R, and 46 RBI? So far this season, Cuddyer has been worth $7M, which means if he just stopped playing today, he'd be worth more than he's getting paid this season.

Of course, Fangraphs is less than optimistic about his ability to keep this pace up, but have adjusted their projections upwards, and have him finishing just 1 run below his value from 2006 (and 10 runs better than his 2007, which is what I was hoping for this year). And if he keeps up his current pace, he'll be worth considerably more than he was in 2006.

I know I was pretty hard on Cuddyer early in the year, but at this point it's really looking like his offseason eye surgery did in fact kick in, right around the beginning of May* -- his OPS jumped above .700 on May 2, and has been going steadily upwards ever since.

* Perhaps you recall when I wrote about Denard's eye surgery a while back, and pointed out that he didn't really start hitting until May of last year. See a pattern here?

So Cuddyer's contract is looking considerably better than it did four months ago, and I imagine that next year when Dierkes looks at this again next year he might not be so quick to shit on Cuddyer.

And I really don't mean to go back to talking about eye surgery again, but it is a little bit striking,* isn't it?

* In April, Cuddyer hit .224/.318/.316, with 15 K and 1 HR in 88 PA. Since then, he's hit .297/.373/.598 with 44 K and 13 HR in 236 PA. Talk about turning a corner!

At the end of the day, though, it's good to see Cuddyer hitting -- and well -- for an extended period of time. Let's hope he can keep it up and make everyone remember why we're paying him like we are.

(Naturally, now that I've said this, he'll either get injured or start sucking, probably starting tonight. The universe has a funny way of doing that. Sorry about that everybody.)

Twins Yankees Series Preview

2009-07-07T00:00:00-07:00

The Twins kick off a three game set with the Yankees tonight at the Dome. Pitching matchups are as follows:

Tuesday- Scott Baker vs. CC Sabathia

Wednesday- Glen Perkins vs. AJ Burnett

Thursday- Anthony Swarzak vs. TBA

The Twins have some pretty ugly numbers against CC. Redmond is one of the few who does not so I wonder if Gardy will DH Mauer (since Kubel would be useless against CC) and use Redmond at Catcher. Or even vice versa. Other than that I'm sure the lineup will be pretty normal. Gardy seems to have settled on one lineup most of the time. Which is nice. Its not a good sign when the lineup changes from day to day. Unless of course you have too many good players, but it usually means you don't have enough.

If we can take two of three from both the Yankees and White Sox I think we will be in very good shape heading into the break. I'd also be happy with a 3-3 split. The tigers have now lost three in a row, so maybe they are starting to fade for good.

Another interesting note: The Twins are done with the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays after this week. The Tigers still have a bunch of games left against them. That is a good sign.

Useless Offday Thoughts: Morneau, Mauer, Slowey, and Getting Banned

2009-07-06T00:00:00-07:00

As some of you may or may not have noticed, I haven't posted in a while. Shortly after my most "recent" post, I had my wisdom teeth forcibly removed from my skull, and in return the dentist supplied me with some drugs (not as fun as you'd think). I was somewhat reticent to try to write anything while under their influence, and given how I acted on Friday night (my first post-surgery party), my reticence was most certainly warranted.* If you're going to make a complete fool of yourself, better to do it among 20 of your closest friends and relatives, 50 slightly less close acquaintances, and a couple hundred strangers rather than do it anonymously on the open internet. I mean ... right?

* If you saw me this weekend, I apologize for that.

But fortunately for everyone involved, all this time away from the keyboard has left my thumbs itching to start slammin' spacebars again, so I'm back at the keyboard. And what better way to do it than by starting with my favorite ongoing series, Useless Offday Thoughts? And hopefully it'll make us all feel a little better about the fact that the jerks at MLB scheduled an offday for the Twins, meaning we won't get to escape from our soul-crushing lives for a little while.

Let's start with a little Morneau-ing:

Twins first baseman Justin Morneau was named American League Player of the Week today, after batting .480 (12-for-25) with four home runs, and 26 total bases in six games last week. It is Morneau’s second time winning the award, with the other coming July 9, 2007. For winning the award, Morneau wins an engraved Swiss Tourneau timepiece.

Congratulations to Morneau, I guess, but I'm now pretty worried. The last time I checked, he only has two wrists, meaning he's now maxed out his need for expensive watches. He'll probably stop trying to kick ass now.

But what if we went Mauer-ing? I mean, he hasn't really done anything good to speak of on the baseball field lately, so we have to go a little deeper into his tackle-box of skills:

Joe Mauer is from Minnesota. He is white. He plays Major League Baseball. He is considered something of a pretty boy. None of these four things outlaws him from practicing his secret hobby. All of them combined into one 6-foot-5, sideburn-wearing, .400-flirting catcher, however, makes for the unlikeliest rapper in the history of rap. “We know he loves it,” Minnesota Twins closer Joe Nathan says. “He does it in a studio in his house,” Twins outfielder Michael Cuddyer says. “I’ve heard stories,” outfielder Denard Span says. “I’ve heard he buries himself in the studio. But never heard the finished product with my own ears. Looking at him right now, I’m guessing it’s a cross between Vanilla Ice and Cypress Hill.”

That's awesome. But Calcaterra's take is somewhat unbelievable:

This strikes me as one of those deals. Mauer probably had one too many Sheep Head Ales, beatbox into a tape recorder, and the rest is somewhat inaccurate history.

I mean ... unless someone spiked the milk, I'm guessing Mauer didn't have a few too many. But maybe his walkup music next year could be a duet.

Now look, I don't know how many of you have heard about the antics surrounding the Royals lately,* but there's some seriously interesting stuff happening.

* Aside from the sucking, that is.

First, quasi-famous Royals fan Rany Jazayerli blogged about the Royals' training staff, and that the one and only person* who happened to have not been fired over the course of all the many, many years of unadulterated suck the Royals franchise has suffered through is their head trainer.

* It turned out there were actually two guys, but both of them were on the medical staff.

Jazayerli wrote that this trainer is terrible, and that because of all the egregious mishandling of injuries over the years,* the dude should get fired.

* And boy, has it come to a head this year. Read the initial rant linked above to get the whole rundown, but if you want just a taste, check this out: Soria injured himself while warming up during a Greinke shutout, they kept him out of a few games where he was needed while claiming he was totally fine, then they brought him in and afterwards admitted that he was hurt, then they kept him out for a bit (not on the DL), and then they let him pitch 2 days in a row, then kept him out for almost a week and when he pitched again he sucked and finally went on the DL. Then they did the same thing with Mike Aviles, their up-and-coming shortstop of the near future, and now he's having season-ending surgery. Then they did it again, but even worse this time, with Coco Crisp, and now he's having season-ending surgery. Then, they did it again with Gil Meche, who they had pitching through a back injury for a while and then, after claiming he was on a strict pitch count, they had him struggle through like 120 pitches (against the Twins, no less). These are all things, he said, that are monumentally dumb, and this trainer, Swartz, probably shouldn't be the trainer any more.

Then, apparently the Royals got ahold of that blog post, and it irked them. If you were wondering how much it irked them ... well, you might think they reconsidered this Swartz fellow. If you thought that, you don't know much about how a bad organization operates. They banned Rany Jazayerli.

They banned him from the stadium (for some reason ... despite the fact that he lives in Chicago and rarely makes it to Kauffman Stadium). They banned all their team employees from his radio show. They said any other radio show that had him on as a guest would be similarly banned. They said any radio station that continued to carry his radio show would also be similarly banned.

Jazayerli was obviously pretty pissed about that, and ... fellow bloggers and commenters everywhere agreed with him. After a few days of the internet echo-sphere resounding and loudening -- as it is wont to do -- the Royals backtracked and lifted the bans and the threats (although Jazayerli still doesn't get access to Royals employees).

Congratulations to Jazayerli for getting un-banned, but the banning itself remains far more interesting to me. It made me wonder what it'd be like if I were banned by the Twins. I mean, I've known very few people to be able to get by the title of the blog, and everyone is pretty convinced we're incendiary douchebags long before they open a browser to discover that despite being pretty opaque and longwinded,* we don't actually want Gardy fired.

* Seriously, we're already more than 1100 words in ... how many are still reading?

So ... given the polarizing title, I figure all they have to do is hear about it and discover "the internet" on a day when we post something a little bit insulting about Gardy or someone else with the team. It happens from time to time. I'm pretty sure they don't know what the internet is yet, so for now I'm safe. But someone could bring a laptop in there at any time, and if Gardy happens to walk by when someone happens to be enjoying some bloggingest-blog craziness, I can see him getting a little bit pissed about it. Enough to complain to his higher-ups? Maybe.

I mean, Jazayerli is a Chicago-based blogger who is a foolishly optimistic fan of a non-Chicago AL Central team. If there is a better way to describe me, I don't want to hear it (mainly because I'm sure it'd be pretty insulting ... actually that could be entertaining, so maybe I do want to hear it). But at the end of the day, two things remain true: Gardy will never read a blog, and the Twins aren't close to as pathetic an organization as the Royals. So I probably don't have to worry about getting banned.

And we'll finish today's useless thoughts with a little medical news of the Twins' own ... apparently the Twins have decided to downplay Slowey's wrist injury in exactly the same way that the Royals have downplayed all the injuries to their players this year:

Kevin Slowey’s right wrist injury is no more serious than the Twins originally diagnosed, General Manager Bill Smith said today, relaying the update after Slowey visited a Baltimore specialist.

Normally, I'd say that's great news. But I just spent a bunch of time writing about how this doesn't work out ... and at the moment this is the single last thing I wanted to hear. Well, hopefully they're right and Slowey will return to being one of our top starters when he's eligible to return from the DL.

And now it's back to wishing the Twins were playing today. I really hate offdays.

KC 4 Twins 2

2009-06-30T00:00:00-07:00

What the hell was that?

Hovechar pretty much couldn't throw a strike to save his life in the first few innings, yet we still couldn't get a hit, let alone a run. Blackburn pitched reasonably well, but if we don't give him any semblance of support we can't expect him to win. We had a pretty fair number of baserunners since we drew a few walks, but we couldn't move them over at all. Just pathetic.

I don't blame Gardy for getting kicked out. Although he was right, that ball hit Kubel's foot.

Does anyone know what the Twins can do to make a playoff push here right around the halfway point, or are we just a .500 team? I'm beginning to think its the latter.

Weekend Recap

2009-06-29T00:00:00-07:00

Going into this series I was nervous that the St. Louis Pujols', I mean Cardinals, would beat us soundly. Not sure why, they aren't all that good. Especially offensively. Their starting pitching has been exceptional lately, and the Twins seem to be easily flustered if an opposing starting pitcher shows early signs of dominance. Well, Perkins was the one who was dominant on friday night. He cruised through 7 innings, giving up 4 hits and 1 earned run. Granted, the Cards lineup isn't all that great, but he did get Pujols out a few times. Nathan gave up a double to start the ninth, but retired Pujols, Ludwick, and Ankiel to end the game. The Nathan-Pujols matchup was a great one to watch.

The saturday game was much more forgettable. Both starting pitchers were gone after the third inning. Not sure if that had more to do with the heat or what, because Slowey didn't look that bad. He didn't look good either. The bullpen kept us in the game which is all you can ask for, we just weren't able to score any runs. All three game on a Brendan Harris 3 run single. How often do you see that? The more exciting news of the day was this: I was at a bar saturday night and some random girl came up to me and said "Hey you in the Twins hat. You look just like Glen Perkins! Has anyone ever told you that?" Good thing he pitched well. I don't want to be told I look like a guy who gave up 7 runs in 3 innings or something. Anyway.....

Sunday was much better. Joe Mauer was playing, Morneau hit a homer, Liriano pitched great. It seemed that everything fell into place. I'm happy that we have started playing better on the road lately. If we can inch closer to being a 500 road team, and continue to play out of our minds at the dome, we should position ourselves nicely for a playoff push.

We have two divisional series in a row. At KC this week, and at home against Detroit over the holiday weekend. A sweep over the Tigers would be great, but I'll take 2 of 3.

The Liriano Problem Keeps Getting Worse

2009-06-24T00:00:00-07:00

Remember yesterday when I pointed out that until things change, there's no reason to be optimistic about Liriano? Well, things haven't changed. He looked pretty awful last night, and miraculously allowed just three runs while putting 12 men on base in 5 innings.

He didn't have any command of any of his pitches, and he looked like he was abbreviating his follow-through on most of his deliveries. That probably still has to do with what Blyleven pointed out a couple of starts ago -- that Liriano is landing on his heel instead of the ball of his foot, which creates recoil and makes it harder to deliver pitches with velocity or control. Basically, Liriano is fighting against himself.

I don't have access to his release point data ... but I'm going to go ahead and guess that his release point was all over the map last night. There's no way it couldn't have been, given his erratic mechanics.

The solution to The Liriano Problem is unclear. Do we keep sending him out there every five days and hope that the offense can carry us that day ... like we did for Carlos Silva, Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson, and other 5th-or-worse starters? Do we try moving him to the bullpen to pitch in high leverage situations, where he would almost certainly suffer frequent meltdowns? Can we put him on the DL for something? What about AAA?

None of these options sound particularly good. But the only thing that's obvious is that Liriano has a problem, and it's not showing any indication of getting better.

What's really the deal with Delaney and Slama?

2009-06-23T00:00:00-07:00

Before the season, the Twins cut ties with Bobby Korecky, allowing him to be taken on waivers by the Diamondbacks. Early in the season they cut Craig Breslow in favor of Sean Henn. This week they cut Luis Ayala and replaced him with Bobby Keppel. Now, Korecky, Breslow, and Ayala were no great shakes or anything out there on the mound, but the Twins have seemed to go out of their way to replace them with inferior versions of themselves.

Breslow's a crappy left-hander used in a LOOGY role? Well, we have Henn, an even crappier left-hander suited solely for a LOOGY role!

Ayala's a crappy right-hander completely unsuited for late inning relief? Well, Keppel's an even crappier right-hander who can barely get anyone out at AAA!*

* Seriously, in 6 seasons at AAA his ERA is 5.13, and he's struck out just 5.2 per 9 innings. This is his first season as a reliever, and his ERA is down despite the fact that his peripheral numbers are worse; expect him to explode, Ayala-style, in the most embarrassing fashion possible.

Now, you might want to accuse the Twins of being cheapskates. After all, they didn't go after any of the hot-shot relievers in free agency this year, and they won't trade away any prospects to pry a good setup man from a flailing non-contender. This is the problem, right?

Wrong.

The problem is that they're promoting crappy relievers to the majors while excellent relief prospects continue to toil away in the system, dominating at every level, getting older but not better. Robert Delaney and Anthony Slama have nothing left to prove at their current levels -- AAA and AA, respectively -- but yet they rot.

One obvious possibility is that the Twins believe in Reliever Roles, and they follow that system dogmatically. You must have a LOOGY reliever, which means "a crappy lefty you can bring in to face a single left handed batter, and usually walk him, before going to someone else in a more difficult situation with runners on base, and you have to do this even if he can get right handed batters out just as well." You must also have a 7th/8th inning right hander who gives up runs every time out but there's still always the chance he sneaks through an inning somehow. That was Ayala, and now it's Keppel. Of course, when the Twins' bullpen was working well (years ago), the Reliever Roles "worked" because all the relievers were good. If you have six relievers who can all go 1-2 innings and not allow a baserunner, much less a run, then it doesn't matter whether you use them in their proper roles or not -- you'll have a good bullpen.

So is the Twins' belief in the necessity and value of roles the reason for Henn and Keppel being on the team instead of Delaney and Slama?

It's possible, I guess. But I'd like to think that the reason is considerably stupider than that. I'll posit such a reason to you now.

Throughout their minor league careers, Delaney and Slama have always racked up a lot of strike outs. Normally that's a good thing, but not if you're being measured by your effort. Let's just go ahead and say the following happened at some point this season:*

Minor league pitching coordinator Eric Rasmussen sits at his desk; Bobby Keppel, Anthony Slama, and Robert Delaney enter. Rasmussen: Hi guys, thanks for coming in. I called you in here to tell you that one of you is going up to the majors! Delaney gives a little fist pump. Rasmussen: What was that for, Del-y? You think you're the one getting the call? Delaney: I'm not? I mean, I've struck out 9.5 batters per nine over my entire career, and I'm at AAA now ... what do I gotta do? Rasmussen: We haven't seen what we want out of you. You're not clutch. Delaney: Clutch? I had 18 saves last year! And 35 the year before that! Rasmussen: That's not what I mean. We haven't seen you get out of any jams. You're not putting in enough effort out there. You need to show that when runners are on base, you can get out of that tough situation. Slama: Wait, isn't it better to just strike everyone out? Rasmussen: Absolutely not! We pride ourselves on our defense around here -- Keppel: Yup, I heard that, which is why I signed with the great great great Minnesota Twins organization. Rasmussen: ... thank you Bobby. As I was saying, we pride ourselves on our defense, and we don't want our great defensive players just standing around watching you walk people. Delaney: I don't walk people. 1.5 BB/9 is pretty low. Rasmussen: Bah! You should be more like Kepp-y here. He's getting out of jams all the time! Look how many times there are men on first and third and he gets the ground ball! Keppel: That's true, there are men on first and third a lot. Slama: That's a BAD THING! Rasmussen: Can it Slam-y. Getting out of tough spots is valuable. You two bums haven't ever done it. Slama: I've struck out 13.7 batters per nine innings! For my whole career! Rasmussen: Exactly. Your 53 strike outs in just 36.2 innings so far this year tell me you're not ready for Twins baseball. Keppel: Rasmuss-y? Rasmussen: Yes Kepp-y? Keppel: I'm tired from all the work I've been doing. Did you know I gave up 26 homers last year? And that my WHIP was 1.663? That's hard, grueling work. I need to take naps. Rasmussen: I know you do Kepp-y. And look at all those baserunners! And that's what I'm talking about, you bums. You should be more like good old Kepp-y here. Delaney: You mean you want us to stop striking people out? Slama: And start giving up more runs? Rasmussen: In so many words, yes. Yes I do. That's why Kepp-y's getting the call. Congratulations my friend! Keppel: zzzzzzzzz Rasmussen: Aw, isn't that cute? He loaded the bases last night but only allowed two runs to score. He needs his rest. Delaney and Slama dejectedly walk out of the office, each considering taking up some drugs of abuse so they can get suspended for 50 games and not have to deal with this fucking bullshit any more.

God damn it.

* By the way, this did not happen. I hope.

Neyer is optimistic about Liriano, for some reason

2009-06-23T00:00:00-07:00

Rob Neyer, famous AL Central hater, has an interestingly optimistic take on Liriano's struggles:

Francisco Liriano's ERA this season (5.91) is exactly two runs higher than it was last season. He's been instructed to junk one of his two sliders. But fundamentally the only difference between this season and last season is a few more home runs. He's still got a fine strikeout rate and he's still walking more batters than he'd like. If he gives up seven homers -- as he did last season -- rather than 12, his ERA would look quite a bit better. So, this is no time to panic.

Frankly, I'm a little surprised that Neyer's not saying Liriano's career is over.* But part of it might just be that he's looking at this in a surprisingly simplistic way. (Just looking at the number of home runs, really?)

* My guess is that it's because the Red Sox have a lot of pitching depth at the moment. If they needed a pitcher, he'd be calling for the Twins to release Liriano. You know, like he did about Jason Kubel right before the season started and Kubel started raking.

I guess Neyer hasn't seen Liriano's numbers with men on base:

2008 Nobody on base: .250/.318/.406 Men on base: .260/.338/.374 2009 Nobody on base: .243/.314/.399 Men on base: .325/.413/.595

That's pretty bad.

I guess he also hasn't taken a look at Liriano's struggles the second time through the order, which I've talked about in the past:

The first time through the lineup, opponents hit just .163/.253/.263 against him, with a 26/8 K/BB ratio and just 5 runs in 91 batters. The second time: .325/.400/.575 with a 12/9 K/BB and 13 runs in 90 batters. The third time? .396/.460/.717 with a 9/8 K/BB and 21 R in 64 batters.

I guess he also hasn't looked at thrylos98's analysis of Liriano's release point:

As you can see, not only the successful Liriano release points are tighter, they are closer to his body. When he throws further away from his body, bad things happen.

These are a bunch of bad things. Liriano and Anderson have both claimed that they've found the problem, and it's the crappier slider Liriano's been throwing. If that pitch is the reason his delivery is out of whack, and is the reason he's throwing fewer changeups, then yeah, maybe that's the problem. And given that his sharp, biting slider is obviously a better pitch, he should probably just focus on that one.

Still, his mechanics are a major issue, and one that I haven't seen any indication that he's resolved. Also, perhaps a bigger issue is his inability to adjust to what hitters are doing to him -- this (along with arm fatigue, from conditioning and/or mechanics) is probably the reason he gets lit up the third time through the order.

Obviously, I don't share Neyer's optimism. I wish I did. We'll see how he throws tonight.

Luis Ayala is a money grubbing douche bag, and I'm glad he's out on his ass

2009-06-23T00:00:00-07:00

So here's a bit of interesting news. Apparently Luis Ayala had requested a trade three weeks ago, because he was unhappy with his role.* While I think it's telling that nobody offered anything for him, and continues to be telling that nobody has taken him off waivers yet, I'm even more glad he's gone now that I've heard this news.

* There's that "roles" crap again. Get over yourself.

Here's Gardy's take on the Ayala situation:

“He wanted an eighth-inning role; that’s why he signed over here. He wasn’t pitching well enough to be an eighth-inning guy. So there you have it. “His thoughts were if we gave him the ball in that eighth inning, he’d be able to do the job. My thoughts are if you’re not getting them out, you’re not going to pitch in the eighth inning. We’re trying to win. So there’s your difference. “When you walk into my office and tell me you don’t like your role, and he talked about his contract for next year — you lose me right there. I don’t deal with that. We’re talking about winning now. That’s why he’s out the door and another guy’s in there to pitch. And it’s not because he’s a bad guy. His theories are a little different.”

Gardy's right on the money here. The manager absolutely should not care about a player's contract, especially his contract for next year, when he won't even be with the team any more. And when a player starts talking like that, he's clearly putting himself before the team.

If Gardy thought Ayala could get people out, he'd have been the 8th inning guy. That's why he was brought here in the first place, and he had numerous opportunities to take over the position. Apparently he didn't think it was a problem that he failed every time.

I'm glad Gardy reacted the way he did, and my only problem with the way this was handled is that Ayala stayed with the team for three weeks after saying this. He should have been out immediately. (Especially given how shitty he's been on the mound.)

So now that the contentious and infuriating Ayala Era is over, we can put it behind us and try to win some ballgames.

Go Twins.

Weekend notes

2009-06-22T00:00:00-07:00

Well, that was a disappointing weekend. We really needed to win all three of those games against the Astros. They are simply not a good baseball team.

Kubel left Sunday's game early because he caught the flu from Mauer. Or because he terribly misplayed a ball in right field. You be the judge.
Apparently we decided not to hit yesterday. I was at the game and it was pretty painful to watch. After watching the first I thought Perkins was going to have a line something like this: 4IP, 8 hits, 6ER. He managed to settle down and gave up 4 runs over 7 innings. Not great, but considering how he started the game, much better than expected.
Saturday's game really should be the final nail in the coffin for certain bullpen members. I'm looking at you Sean Henn. I say we pool our money and buy a plane ticket for Anthony Slama TODAY. The front office/coaching staff can't truly believe the bullpen in its current state gives us a chance to win. They do not.
I was hoping this interleague stretch would be a time for us to string together a bunch of wins and surge above 500. Instead we have decided to stick close to the 500 mark. Bold move, Gardy.
We have nine games on the road starting tomorrow night in Milwaukee, the to Saint Louis and KC. St. Louis scares me a little, but we should be able to win the series against the Brewers and Royals. That being said when we play on the road anything goes.
Will any moves get made on this off day? I would bet Ayala's days are numbered but I saw a stat that he pitches really well on the road, so we will probably keep him around through this trip.
What are your thoughts on what probably has to be the most disappointing series of the year so far?

Weekend at Wrigley

2009-06-16T00:00:00-07:00

I, along with apparently every other Twins fan, made the trek to Chicago over the weekend to watch the Twins play three games at Wrigley Field. I will admit, I really don't like the Cubs. Not sure why. I just don't. However, taking in a game at Wrigley field is great. We had phenomenal seats, provided by a college buddy of mine. I was unable to watch the Milton Bradley game on Friday as I was traveling, but we watched the games on Saturday and Sunday.

One of the reasons I find Wrigley field so much fun is there is a bunch of stuff to do (read: bars) around the stadium. What do we have at the dome? One bar, a hospital and a bunch of freeway entrance ramps. That's not fun.

The game on Saturday was delayed, but it turned out to be a great day for baseball. Not too hot, and the sun eventually came out. My cubs fan buddy Mike (who provided the tickets) said the Twins were as impressive a traveling fan base as he had seen. The Twins fans were loud, and not including me, not too obnoxious.

So we take two out of three on the road. I'm happy with that. We really cannot lose any of the next six games at home. Neither the Pirates nor the Astros are very good. I think Perkins is back for his start on Thursday, and I am interested to see what the team does regarding Crain. It is clear he can't be used in a game anymore. He just doesn't have the ability to get major leaguers out. Whether or not he can regain this ability is still TBD.

Reusse Attacks Delmon Young's Attitude

2009-06-16T00:00:00-07:00

I was at the Twins game at Wrigley Field on Sunday, to witness the Twins' first loss of the season against a National League opponent. I don't want to talk about it, except to say that I like Wrigley. I may have more on that in the future. What I want to talk about today is FunBobby's t-shirt. You see, he was at the game too, and was wearing a Delmon Young t-shirt jersey; I amused myself by making fun of his choice. I believe I called it "an unwise investment."* But really, I like Delmon Young. And, like FunBobby, I'm still rooting for him to turn it around.

* Of course, since he knows more about such things than I do, he accurately pointed out that t-shirt jerseys aren't really investments. And here I thought my beat up old #27 Morneau was sure to skyrocket in value one of these days. Maybe I shouldn't feel so bad about spilling toothpaste on it the other day, then.

Patrick Reusse, on the other hand, is done rooting for that. He feels like an idiot for being tricked into thinking Delmon Young had potential two years ago, and now he's on the rampage. And do you know what happens when Reusse takes a look at history? He conveniently rewrites pieces of it.

The [scouts'] observations included: "... Delmon, still only 19, has proven himself one of the bright talents in the D-Rays farm system. He has often been compared to Albert Belle,* albeit minus the attitude, for the way he attacks the ball." Four years later, the actuality has been that Young compares far more favorably with Belle in attitude than in productivity.

I'd heard Frank Robinson, but oh well. Reusse's probably just paraphrasing that quote anyway. There's no link to verify a source.

At this point of the article, I can't tell if Reusse's trying to say more about Delmon's production or his attitude here. But, in reality, while his production couldn't be much further from Belle's, his attitude also couldn't be much further. Delmon has been close to a model citizen in his time with the Twins, aside from a Kubel-esque lack-of-inner-fire-boiling-over-through-the-face,* and this is the first criticism of his attitude I've heard all along.

* I believe this method of measuring the quality of baseball players explains why Nick Punto is so beloved. He's got competitive fire boiling up out of his face all the time.

But maybe I should give Reusse the benefit of the doubt here. I mean, I tried to do that for Geoff Baker, and for Jim Souhan ... and you know how that goes. If you find yourself having written an article that heats up my hackles,* it means you don't get the benefit of the doubt.

* I think I'm going to try to start using that phrase. Who's with me?

So, Reusse, can you justify yourself? Do you earn the benefit of the doubt by either dropping the bad-attitude thing or, preferably, by explaining exactly how he has a bad attitude?

The Twins had found themselves with a messed-up hitter who had no interest in listening to batting coach Joe Vavra or anyone else.

Okay, so the fact that Delmon's not hitting can only be due to the fact that he's not listening to Joe Vavra? I don't know if anyone else has noticed, but Vavra hasn't exactly done a great job with anyone else, either. In fact, I'd say that there are three real possibilities here:

Everyone is listening to Vavra, and that's why they all suck
Nobody is listening to Vavra, and that's why they all suck
Vavra never should have become the hitting coach at all; his one "success," Morneau, is a great talent who probably would have started hitting like this anyway

Wait, is #3 all that different from #1? And ... does it matter? Either way, I think it's disingenuous to say Delmon has no interest in listening to input or in getting better at the plate.

Reusse goes on to talk about Gardy's debacle in December, when he told a bunch of farmers that Delmon would be his fourth outfielder. Here Reusse was compelled to put words into Gardy's mouth, and to project some motivation:

Gardenhire backtracked after that statement reached the Twin Cities, but the message was clear: One season of Young -- with Albert Belle attitude and Chad Allen production -- was about all the manager could stomach.

Firstly, do you think Reusse is aware that Chad Allen was mentioned in the Mitchell Report? If so ... isn't this exactly the sort of stuff that got Jerod Morris in all sorts of trouble? I mean, I guess this is just another example of a sportswriter making such a claim when -- wait a minute! It's much more likely that Reusse simply had no idea that Allen's meager production may-or-may-not-have-been fueled by steroids. So this is really just two things: an amusing example of Reusse's obliviousness, and a cruel insult to Allen, whose promising career was cut short by a busted seam on the Astroturf.* I'm calling "asshole" on Reusse for this one.

* By the way, Chad Allen finished the play on which he blew out his knee. You could see on his face that he knew his career was over, and he still hopped on one leg to chase down the ball as it bounced away from him, and threw it back into the infield to save a run before collapsing in a heap. It was an extremely heart-warming story, until Senator George "World Series Ring" Mitchell turned it into a dark tale of drugs and unspeakable evil.

Oh, it's one more thing. It's another comparison to Albert Bell's attitude. Still no evidence, of course, or "quotes" from actual sources. Just Reusse's insistence that Delmon's got a bad attitude. I hope someone shows this article to Delmon, and then starts painting pictures of Reusse onto the balls they're throwing for batting practice. Joe Vavra, are you listening?

At the end of the day, this is all about Delmon's production. And people react differently to that.

I, for example, write angry blog posts at work, and unsuccessfully attempt to shout things from the stands when I'm at the game. I'm pretty sure none of the things I yelled actually made sense. FunBobby can surely attest.

FunBobby shows support for him by buying the t-shirt jersey and sporting it to games.

Reusse pens a fogeyish possibly-racist attack on Delmon's attitude and how he's not living up to his vast potential as an athlete, and that he just doesn't understand how someone could throw their god-given talent away like that.

Don't believe me?

How could that be a young man's mission, and six years later he's watching tape of a swing that's all arms and doesn't do anything about it? How can a hitter with the assets of strength and bat speed find himself apparently content with bouncing and fisted singles? I don't get it. I don't understand.

That's what Reusse said. This is the internet. You can't just make up quotes.

And finally, Aaron Gleeman sits back, pleased with himself that he totally called it all along, and Delmon Young just isn't good. That's one way to do it, I suppose. Just doesn't seem as fun to me.

Maybe Delmon's finished. Maybe he never actually had all the potential it looked like he did. Maybe he's just a small tweak from finding himself again. Maybe he needs a new hitting coach. Maybe he needs a change of scenery. Maybe he should be in RF instead of LF. Maybe ... a million different things.

But none of them are his attitude.

Mauer Hovers

2009-06-16T00:00:00-07:00

I must admit, I'm a huge fan of Posnanski's latest ongoing feature, So How About This. Know what else I'm a fan of? That he's basically got a Mauer Watch going, as he brings up Mauer as one of the absurd stats every week when he writes the post.

This week?

So how about this: Joe Mauer, his last six games, is 11 for 26. He’s had a hit every game, two hits in three of those games, and three hits in one game. In those six games, he has raised his average from .413 to .414. THAT is how hard it is to hit .400 for a season.

Firstly, I'm going to be honest. It's felt like Mauer's been slumping lately.

Secondly, I think there's no better way to explain exactly how difficult it is to hit .400 for a season. Sure, Mauer struggled a little bit this week, and he was sick. But he also went 11 for 26 with a home run. For most players, that puts them in the running for player of the week.

For Mauer, though, it's just hovering.

Dealing with Crain

2009-06-16T00:00:00-07:00

According to Joe C, the Twins have decided what to do with Jesse Crain.

http://blogs2.startribune.com/blogs/christensen/2009/06/16/tuesday-lineups-crain-crede-cuddyer-span-updates/

Apparently the expectation that he may have been pitching through an injury were incorrect, as rather than put him on the DL, the Twins have optioned him to AAA. I'm posting from my non-multitasking iPhone, so I can't check if he still had options or if he had to pass through waivers, but I expect that we'd have heard about it if we'd put him on waivers.

While this comes as a welcome move given his awful performance lately -- coming to a head, of course, on Sunday in Chicago when there were 20000 Twins fans in the stadium who knew we'd lost a few minutes before it actually happened -- the fact that he was replaced by Perkins is interesting.

It leaves Gardy one bullpen arm short of where he normally likes to be, and may open the door for one of the starters to move into a bullpen role.

Swarzak can't come back up until 10 days after he was sent down, unless someone else goes onto the DL. Them's the rules.

So my guess is that one of the following two things will happen:

1) Liriano's next start will be his last chance to stay in the rotation. If he doesn't pitch well, he goes to the pen and Span goes on the DL to make room for Swarzak.

2) If Liriano pitches well, Swarzak stays in the minors and we bring up a right handed reliever when we send down Morales (note that he hasn't played yet). Hopefully this is Slama rather than Humber or Morillo. Also, Duensing is a possibilty if they don't care about having an extra lefty (they shouldn't).

The most likely scenario, naturally, is that I'm totally wrong here and the plan is something completely different. The second most likely scenario is that the plan is meaningless because everything will change between now and when it matters.

But this is just my reaction to this excellent news.

Now we get to be relieved of wailing when Crain comes into games, and Cuellar and the Cliburns get to try to work their magic on his busted mechanics.

What are your thoughts?

Posted via email from sirsean.posterous

Mauer Calls Me a Fool, Google Sucks, and other notes

2009-06-13T00:00:00-07:00

I'm just going to pop down a few notes today, about the recent games and some administrative notes about the site.

Yesterday, right before the game started, I mentioned that Mauer has apparently been sick for a while, and it's coincided with an extended stretch of power-free hitting. He must read The Blog, because he promptly hit a home run yesterday. I love it when Mauer makes me look like a fool for questioning him. Perhaps I will start a new Mauer-criticism policy.
I haven't been able to watch either game, unfortunately. I listened on Gameday Audio on Friday, because a) MLB.tv blacks out games for local teams, and b) for some reason, I don't have cable television in my cubicle. On Saturday, I was in the dentist getting stabbed in the face by a masked stranger. Let me just say this: if we hadn't won both of those games, I'd be ready to kill right now.
Although I thought this was amusing. My dentist is in Wrigleyville, so on the way home my iPhone grabbed this photo:
So that's when I realized that they'd started the game. I thought it was in a rain delay. Note that it's the seventh inning. Argh.
Also, a little note about the site. I recently attempted to improve the speed of the Twitter feed at the top of the page by hosting it at Google App Engine instead of on one of my own domains (each of which are just as slow as this one). Google advertises that their platform is fast, and scales really high, and blah blah blah. Sounded like a good idea. Well, it seemed okay at first, though there were more failures than I would have liked. But then this afternoon it just completely shit the bed. My app on App Engine became completely unresponsive, and Google has thus far been completely unhelpful. So I say "Fuck this" and I'm through with trying to put the Twitter feed thing on App Engine. It has been pulled from the site for now. If there is popular demand, I may bring it back.

I'm glad we won the series, and hopefully we can complete the sweep tomorrow. And hopefully an asteroid doesn't strike the earth or something ... that's about the only thing that could possibly keep me from watching the game.

A Cold Caused Mauer's Cold Streak?

2009-06-12T00:00:00-07:00

Remember when Joe Mauer used to be good at baseball?

It was a simpler time then. A time of ice cream and apple sauce and those little sparkler things that never actually hurt anyone but always seem like they're about to. And Mauer was putting on a ridiculous hitting clinic, absolutely tearing up the American League.

It was May, 2009. In Mauer's first 29 games this season, he hit .431/.516/.873, with 12 HR, 7 2B, 35 RBI, and 28 R. He was on a tear. The man could not be stopped.

In the 9 games since then, he's hitting just .351/.415/.405, with 0 HR, 2 2B, 1 RBI, and 6 R. He's still sneaking the occasional single through the infield, but he's completely lost his power.

The difference between an IsoP of .442 and an IsoP of .054 is the difference between Ruth and Tyner. Not only is it not the same player, it's not even the same league. (Possibly not even the same species.)

Well, apparently he's been feeling sick lately.

Joe Mauer is sick, but in the lineup. He said he started feeling bad in Seattle. He looked and sounded horrible when I saw him this morning. “Just pull a Michael Jordan.” I said to him. “Sometimes you play better when you’re not feeling well.” Mauer said. “Maybe it will help.”

He really started looking bad in Seattle, and it hasn't abated. Since the beginning of the Seattle series, Mauer is hitting .310/.375/.379 -- decent for a catcher, but this isn't the superstar we bargained for.

He'll probably never post a 1.300 OPS for a month again, but we sure need him to get up over .800, each and every month. So hopefully he can kick whatever's ailing him and start hitting again soon.

Geoff Baker Can Look a Man in the Eyes. He Promises.

2009-06-11T00:00:00-07:00

Alright folks, I hope you have a little bit of time on your hands, because this is going to be a long one. Remember that blogger who wrote about Ibanez and steroids, and then the newspapers picked it up and blew it out of proportion, and Ibanez himself targeted this blogger and offered him his stool? Well, the mainstream media continues to circle their wagons to protect themselves and each other. Today we'll be reading Geoff Baker, of The Seattle Times, who is very, very angry about the threat to his livelihood. Oh, and he's also really proud of himself. Bold is Baker.

Figured it was about time we had this discussion, given all the fuss about Raul Ibanez and his comments on that blogger who raised the "issue" that he "might" or "might not" be on performance enhancing drugs. Besides, I've since gotten emails from student journalists pleading with me to inject some reality into this debate. So, here goes.

Alright, here we go. I assume Baker's going to give us some brief history of this Ibanez/blogger altercation.

Back in 1998, I wrote a story about a guy who lied about having served in the Vietnam conflict.

This is ... not the backstory I was expecting.

His name was Tim Johnson, and he managed the Blue Jays to 88 wins in his only major league season as a field boss. The reason he managed only one season in the majors is because of me and nobody else.

Are you ... bragging about that?

I'd been getting tips about what he was telling players and, after a trip to the Dominican Republic right after the season, in which I spoke to several Blue Jays and was given more avid detail, decided to write the definitive piece about his one year as a manager. I got players quoted on-the-record, including former Cy Young Award winner Pat Hentgen.

So you had access to the players, and they talked to you. Including a Cy Young Award winner! Wow, those guys usually stop talking to anyone once they receive their trophy.

It took legwork. I knew what I was doing.

I love that line. It's straight out of a crappy murder mystery which is solved by a washed up alcoholic who's describing his life before he descended into his booze-induced hell.

In my previous life as an investigative reporter, I'd helped get an escaped murderer recaptured and jailed for life in Lorton, Va., by publishing his claims of innocence.

It's a good thing people believed your writing, then.

I'd pointed an accusatory finger at a Hell's Angels associate who targeted a police informant -- one of my sources -- for execution and had him shot five times in a downtown street (the guy somehow survived).

Is this from that same murder mystery?

Had that Hell's Angels "associate" vaguely threaten to kill me later on, after the story, but fortunately, somebody else got to him first and blew him away in a Montreal restaurant.

The death of others is fortunate. Also, does it seem to anyone else that he's implying he had something to do with it? Geoff Baker is one of those guys at a bar who makes sure he always has the tallest, wildest story to tell. No matter what you've ever done in your life, it's nothing compared to the awesomeness of this guy's life.

I could tell you more, but don't want to bore you.

Yeah, all this talk of intrigue and killings is boring. Let's get back to a much less boring topic, the business of professional journalism.

The bottom line is, in this business of professional journalism, if you do it right, there are consequences to everything you publish. If you don't figure that out, you're a a fool.

That's the bottom line? That there are consequences to everything you do? Isn't that true of, like, everything?

The day before my Tim Johnson story was published on the front page of the Toronto Star sports section in October 1998, I sat with a college buddy at a Toronto Argonauts CFL football game, trying to enjoy an afternoon off. I told him about the pending story and said: "This franchise will never be the same.''

That's right, it won't be the same. It'll forever be known as the franchise that had a beat writer set out to take down the manager.

Nor would Johnson's life. I told him that, too.

You sound like a real confrontational guy, Mr Baker. Did you enjoy telling Johnson that you were trying to destroy his life, and that you were sure it'd make your career? It's a dog eat dog world out there, you know.

I understood the consequences. Knew I was about to ruin a man's life and career. Knew the franchise would be set back years because of it. And it was.

I have principles, damn it. That's why I don't feel bad about destroying lives and businesses. I have to make a name for myself and get promoted, and if I have to crush a few measly little people on my way, well, then it was their own fault for being in my way in the first place.

Everything I predicted came true on all counts.

Well, you're just a bad mofo, aren't you sir?

My story caused a firestorm the next day. The big Canadian national TV sports network, owned partially by ESPN, led their broadcasts with my story, showing pictures of the actual newspaper. Toronto is a competitive newspaper town, with four dailies, and not every writer out there bought what I was writing. That's natural in this business. Nobody likes being scooped. I had my reputation questioned by some, especially since it was my first year on the beat.

So other people also thought you were publishing a huge story like this and deliberately trying to ruin someone's life to further your own fledgling career? I'm not surprised at all. Because it's fucking obvious.

But I was ready for it and answered all comers. Johnson held on pleading innocence for a month until the late Boston Globe columnist, Will McDonough, wrote a column mentioning that Johnson had previously told the same lies when he was a bench coach in Boston. That was really pre-internet time and it took a while for news to spread from city to city.

Yeah, things are much better now, with the internet. Wait, that wasn't what you were trying to say? Oh.

Once my story that Johnson -- who'd claimed he'd never told any players he'd served in Vietnam -- was corroborated in a second city, he had no choice but to 'fess up. At the winter meetings that year, he issued a tearful apology and blamed his lying on a psychological condition called "survivor's guilt''. It does exist, and maybe he did have it. But it didn't matter.

Damn right it didn't matter. My career was taking off, and his was going down the drain, and that is all that mattered.

The Blue Jays brought him to spring training the following February, then fired him after a month because the players he'd lost in 1998 were now ridiculing him behind his back even more in 1999.

So ... how did those players respect you after you used your access to air the clubhouse's dirty laundry? I understand the players love that.

It was inevitable. And I knew it before I wrote the story. I knew Johnson would not survive what I published. How could he?

Well, he probably couldn't. And maybe he should have been fired for this without being tried by the media beforehand. But in this hectic world with the new 24/7 media cycle and all, well, we have to be willing to forgive all the media's craziness. What's that you say? This was 11 years ago, and it wasn't that crazy back then? Well, I'm sure you still don't want any blame for this.

And because I knew that, I had to make absolutely certain that I was writing what I was for the right reasons.

Or at least could say some reasons that sounded right, really quickly, like they were obvious and you hadn't planned them out beforehand. I know what they teach in journalism school. I know because of how all journalists act.

Had he really "lost'' the players on his team? After all, they'd won 88 games -- despite being sub-.500 right up to the final month of that season.

Sounds like exactly the kind of situation where that end of season run is explained by great clubhouse chemistry. It's not like the story about Willie Randolph losing his players which led to, you know, the team losing games. But I'm there's some secret you know that says they managed to win despite a horrible clubhouse environment, but you can't tell us how you know that.

I was told, privately, by coaches and players that it was a team in turmoil, despite the outward appearance and bushload of wins when the team was all but out of the playoff race.

I told you I knew how journalists act.

That players were making "cuckoo'' signs behind Johnson's back because they knew he'd never served in Vietnam but continued to tell war stories. That good coaches were about to be fired because they'd clashed with Johnson about his lies. That team management knew little about the severity of the inner-clubhouse problems.

So Johnson was a bad leader, the players were dickheads, and management was oblivious. It's a good thing you knew exactly which life to ruin.

So, I wrote my story. And I ruined Tim Johnson's major league career. All these years later, I believe Johnson has been unfairly ostracized from a game that tolerates criminals and cheats, just not Vietnam liars.

So you're saying you think people took what you wrote to some sort of extreme, and missed the exact point of what you wrote? I think I'll remember this, in case it comes up later.

But I also understand why he can't come back.

Because he clashed with Geoff Baker On The Rise, and that's something you Just Don't Do.

He's spent years managing in the independant leagues and in Mexico. Heck, he had Chris Jakubauskas with the Lincoln Saltdogs right before the Mariners signed him. For the record, Jakubauskas thought he was a good manager, as do many of the players who served under Johnson. Doesn't matter. He'll never manage again in the majors. His career .588 winning percentage as a manager is the best in Blue Jays history.

First, he had a .543 winning percentage. Secondly, it was in exactly one year. Kind of a small sample size, don't you think?

Do I feel guilty at times? Of course. But I don't dwell on it. I knew what I was doing and knew he'd never manage again before the item went to print. I walked into his office the following spring, a few weeks before he was fired, and told him we'd both have to live with each other.

But not for that long, because he was getting fired, and you weren't. So, in your face Johnson!

But I looked him in the eye when I said it.

Yup, confrontational.

He wasn't thrilled with me, to say the least.

What an ass. Doesn't he know that you're Geoff Baker On The Rise, and that everyone should be thrilled just to have you notice them in the process of crushing their souls?

Told me he respected that I could look him in the eye and talk to him man-to-man. And I could. Those words meant something.

Touching?

But even if he didn't really mean it, or if he'd thrown me out of his office, I didn't need his blessing on that. I had my own, from within.

Nope, not touching. You didn't even believe him. That's cold blooded.

This was no hit-and-run job. I believed in what I was doing, didn't go at it halfway, and was ready to take the consequences.

Sure seems like you wanted the consequences.

In the end, he suffered far greater than I did. Why?

Because the media sticks together? Because he was a crappy manager who told false stories to his players in order to motivate them? Because you created a toxic environment in the clubhouse, in the process of being there every day, and then wrote about it and got his ass fired? It could be many things.

Because I was right.

Oh. I shouldn't have tried to guess like that.

Now, can the blogger who wrote about Ibanez say the same thing?

Wait, what? Oh, right, the Ibanez v. Blogger case of 2009. I forgot that's what we were talking about, given these 1000 words about The Great Geoff Baker, Destroyer of Men. I believe in journalism school they call this "burying the lead." In regular school they call it "narcissism."

No, he cannot. Because he never really takes a position.

Well according to the newspapers and ESPN, he did take a position. And that position was "Raul Ibanez took steroids." You're not saying that you, other newspaper writers, ESPN, and hundreds of others have completely misread a blog post and are using it as a strawman to gang up on blogs in general, are you?

He throws some innuendo out there, under a provocative headline, then couches it with a bunch of well-researched statistics on park factors, and the like. Makes it all look like a fact-finding mission.

Yeah, in journalism school they teach you to toss out any notion of well-researched statistics or anything like it, because real men wear felt hats and smoke cigars and journalists are real men. Or something like that. You wouldn't want your research to look like a fact finding mission. You'd want it to look like an auto-biography. Right?

But come on. Baseball is a game played by men.

Real men? Who smoke cigars?

When you cover this sport for a while, you realize that these "issue'' pieces some writers try to hide behind when they passive-aggressively go at a different topic really won't fly.

They won't? Then why have they been flying for 60 years in magazines and newspapers?

Everybody knows what the "elephant in the room'' is beforehand. So, no matter how much research you couch it under, the real issue is what everybody -- especially media-seasoned ballplayers -- is going to focus on.

Okay, so no matter what you write about, people are going to get what they came in with. They'll ignore your research, they'll ignore your conclusion, and they'll just come away with the foregone conclusion they were already convinced of. For example, Raul Ibanez saw his name and the word "steroids" in the same sentence, got so pissed off he could shit, and then offered said shit to anyone who'd listen. For another example, mainstream journalists saw ".com" on there, and all they could think of was "Fuck blogs." So you see, Baker made a great point here. People are idiots who don't read. Even people whose fucking job it is to read and analyze information.

And in this case, the blogger really didn't have a leg to stand on. That much was clear when he was eviscerated on national television by Fox Sports columnist Ken Rosenthal, a longtime baseball writer for the Baltimore Sun.

He didn't really get "eviscerated," did he? I mean, Rosenthal came out guns blazing, saying that it's inexcusable for anyone, anywhere, ever, to live by any values different from those he personally lives by. That bloggers, by virtue of the fact that some newspaper writers read blogs, should be held to the same standards of newspaper writers themselves. That even considering that a player did steroids is completely inexcusable. If you feel like watching it, which I encourage you to do, go here. It's 10 minutes long.

I've seen some commenters to various fan blogs the past 24 hours try to say the blogger "held his own'' but let's get real. It was ugly.

Yeah, so he's not a very attractive man. Big deal. He still did a reasonably good job of getting yelled at on television without getting angry or breaking down in tears, which most people probably would have done. Especially since he was being wrongfully accused of something because Rosenthal can't be troubled to read something if it's not printed on a paper.

I give the blogger -- I won't mention his name because I'm reluctant to give him his 15 minutes -- credit for going on with Rosenthal.

His name is Jerod Morris, you fucking asshole. And he was just on fucking television. You're not going to be the one to prevent him from getting "his 15 minutes." Even if you are The Great Geoff Baker.

If it was me on the air instead of Rosenthal, I would have torn the blogger to shreds in much the same way. Maybe even worse.

Damn right.

I know Rosenthal and spoke to him at the ballpark yesterday after his ESPN appearance with said blogger. When you go on TV and radio a lot, you learn how to destroy people like the inexperienced blogger on-air.

And you know what happens when you don't go on TV a lot (or ever)? You don't know how to prepare, you get easily flustered, and you look like a stammering dope who can't answer even the simplest questions. And while Morris suffered each of these, none of them were terrible afflictions. I'd say he did well for a first time.

It was like that Korean dude pounding on Jose Canseco in Japan the other day.

Did you watch that fight? It was nothing like that. The fight was far more boring and pathetic. Although there was a big guy beating on a helpless little weasel, so it was definitely entertainment worthy of Geoff Baker's time.

But I give the blogger props for standing up and taking his blows like a man. There is not enough of that in the internet world these days. Not enough accountability.

There's a lot of accountability in the mainstream media world, though. Selena Roberts is proof of that.

And the fact he was ready to stand up for what he believed in gives me hope that he can one day rise to better things. That his blogging career was not just ruined by this one misstep. I don't think his was.

You don't seem to understand the concept of blogging. This isn't like being a major league manager, where there are exactly 30 jobs. Or a major league beat writer, where there are 60. There are, like, 250 million available jobs. It is simply not possible to ruin a blogging career. Do you fucking realize how hard you'd have to try to ruin my blogging career?

It took some guts to wade into this topic.

Have we gotten to the crux of the issue? That the mainstream media wants to control "this topic," that they want to run the conversation and pick the issues and when to talk about them? That if some lowly blogger says something in a forest and a newspaper writer hears him, that the mainstream media will swoop down, with all the king's horses and all the king's men, and make sure that little blogger is never heard from again?

But when you go all-in, you've got to go all in. He didn't do that. When you write about topics like killers, or Hell's Angels, or major leaguers and steroids, you can't pussy foot around.

Because men taking drugs to get better at playing a kid's game is the shit people get fucking killed for. That's why you have to take it Geoff Baker Serious.

You've got to go at it hard, directly, with no b.s. and be able to defend yourself afterwards. This blogger couldn't because he went in only halfway. He tried to raise the "steroids issue'' then claimed he really wasn't pointing a finger at Ibanez.

You have to? When you write about how the world we live in has changed to the point where simply having a great month is enough for fans to think you may have done steroids, you have to "go at it hard" and be ready and willing to prove that the guy did it?

Maybe he didn't read his own headline.

"Steroid Speculation Perhaps Unfair, But Great Start in 2009 Raising Eyebrows." Doesn't sound like the kind of barn burning accusation you think it is.

I taught journalism at Concordia University in Montreal from 1996 through 1998, before things like blogs were even envisioned.

Blogs were invented in 1997.

Much of what I see written in the blogosphere today would have failed my very rigid course.

That course was rigid, just like Geoff Baker.

There are students I had, now working as professional journalists, who, I hope, learned something from that.

But I thought you said people don't learn? Oh, I get it. They learn once they become professional journalists. Is that it?

Most of all, I hope they learned that if you're going to try to be a big man, or woman, and go after big game, you've got to have your ducks lined up.

I hope they learned that when you're a professional journalist, you have to be politically correct, lest some woman develop a wad of some sort because you used the male form of the pronoun in a generic, both-genders kind of way, just like every other fucking language on earth. This shit is important.

Because these half-baked insinuations I read online just would not fly back then, nor should they now.

Morris insinuated nothing. He pointed out that others had raised the question, and decried that as unfair.

We can call it "citizen journalism'' or "grass roots democracy'' or any other cute label you want. But it all boils down to this: can that blogger look Ibanez in the eye and make a case for what he did? He was scrambling to sound coherent in a debate with Rosenthal, so I sincerely doubt it.

How did you look on your first TV appearance? And was there a long-time pro there, ripping into you for all he was worth, tearing down your career and your efforts and your very being?

And that's where we're at. This is not about journalists "protecting their turf'' against bloggers.

Yes it is.

We have some excellent bloggers in Seattle, who write all kinds of interesting statistical analysis, some correct and some a little out there.

I wonder which he considers Dave Cameron.

But it's a good blogoshpere. And still, there is a serious distrust of these bloggers by players and teams themselves because of the accountability factor. Anyone can take shots from a distance.

You mean like Raul Ibanez is doing to Jerod Morris?

But can you look someone in the eye? And that's what it boils down to.

Geoff Baker is proud of the fact that he can spend 3000 words telling someone they suck and posting it on the internet, and then claim that he'd be able to look the person in the eye and make the case that they do, in fact, suck. Does that make you a journalist? Because I know plenty of people who are Geoff Baker Level Assholes, who love to look people in the eye and tell them to fuck themselves.

And what exactly is the "it" that is boiling down to this?

Local bloggers have tried to gain access to the Mariners clubhouse. I'm obviously not out of touch with the local blogosphere. I see where it is, where it's going, and as local BBWAA chairperson, I'm not entirely opposed to limited access even though some of my bretheren are. But there would have to be limits. In no way would I ever open the floodgates and let everyone with a "dot.com'' address into specialized "press'' areas as some sports have contemplated. I'd like to see some kind of formal training involved.

You'd be okay with it as long as there were some sort of litmus test and training involved, to make sure that the bloggers who were allowed in wouldn't use their access to, you know, rock the boat or anything. Newspapers got it good here, see, and we're not going to let it any punk kids that'll blow that for us!

Some bloggers are highly passionate and dedicated and might be considered "journalists'' had they ever obtained some type of formal training. Heck, in the right circumstance, I might even hold the journalism classes for them, my past experience as a college lecturer being of use in this case.

That's probably a good idea. But it probably shouldn't be Geoff Baker teaching the class. After all, he knows nothing at all about responsible blogging.

But there is a training that has to occur. You either learn it in school, or learn it on-the-job at a paper before going out in the field.

Or from being a blogger for a while. Or from getting access and misusing it and getting ripped by a player or his manager, and learning that you need to be more responsble.

Or from me.

Or ... literally anything but that, okay?

But you have to get some training before you head out there. That way, you don't embarrass yourself nationally, as this blogger just did, or risk ruining a ballplayer's reputation when you may not be right.

Geoff, were you trained to make sure you were right before attempting to ruin someone's reputation, or career? Because, you know, you didn't even fucking read his article. All you did was get really mad and paint a very, very broad brush about bloggers. Oh, and tried to jump on the "destroy this guy's life" bandwagon, because that's what you do.

Again, can you look somebody in the eye? It's as simple as that.

I got it! The reason this is such a big deal to him is because Geoff Baker used to be cross-eyed, and was never able to look people in the eye when he was younger. Then he got those glasses that help you straighten out your eyes, and now he's really proud of the fact that he can look people straight in the eyes. It makes you a fucking man's man.

It's no different from being in the schoolyard in fifth grade. If you're going to talk smack about someone, be prepared to stand up for yourself and ride out the blows.

That's what Geoff Baker did, until he was able to look people straight in the eyes. Then they were the ones who had to ride out the blows!

That goes for writing about Ibanez, or Yuniesky Betancourt, or John McLaren, or Bill Bavasi.

There are no links to previous articles here, so I can't be sure that Baker isn't just unaware that McLaren is no longer the manager, or that Bavasi is no longer the GM. Or if he's just not using the names of the current guys because if he did, people might think he was accusing them of blogging, or something. Should I give him the benefit of the doubt?

In this business, you can't afford to give in to momentary fan frustration and lash out at players and team officials.

Yes, in your business. Where you're not allowed to cheer. Bloggers are not in your business.

Sure, some people do it in this business. Nobody is perfect. But there is always a price to be paid. It's not as simple as doing it from your "basement'' or "office'' or whatever. You have to have the defense ready in your head, and be prepared to defend your reputation in any forum, when you venture potshots at people from my position.

Is Jerod Morris in your position?

And that's why you see mainstream media taking fewer potshots than bloggers.

I see them making plenty. Like the ones they're constantly making against Piazza and Sosa, against whom there has never been credible evidence other than the accusations of sportswriters. The mainstream media just doesn't go fucking insane when it happens.

Because at the end of the day, reason and fairness has to win out.

In the land of sportswriters, "reason and fairness" are actually the same words as "professional journalism."

Nobody's perfect.

Except Geoff Baker.

But it's always better to err on the side of caution -- and do a little more legwork -- than to have Ken Rosenthal destroying you on national TV, when your only defense is mere cliches and half-hearted insinuations.

Frankly, it's too bad Morris didn't point out that Rosenthal didn't even bother to read the article. Because it was pretty obvious.

It's rarely about us "soft pedaling it'' or currying favor with the people we cover, either. I laugh at those suggestions, which I still see made by bloggers who have no idea what they are talking about. I get accused of it from time to time by bloggers too lazy to try to consider why I might be saying something.

Do you ever explain yourself, or do we just have to trust you?

Folks, I took on an 88-win manager in his first season of a multi-year contract when I was a rookie beat writer 11 years ago because the circumstances warranted it.

Isn't that the whole point of this? That you were a rookie then, and hadn't built up a career you needed to fight to protect? You know, the career you're currently fighting to protect?

Do you seriously think I cared whether McLaren liked me or not?

Do you seriously think McLaren would have given you the same access whether he liked you or not?

Time to get real. There's a difference between being fair and critical and being an attack-dog. You learn things like subtlety and nuance when you do this for a while.

Yes. Jerod Morris was being fair and critical, and concluded that there's no way to know whether Ibanez did anything and that it's too bad some people are speculating that he did something wrong. Rosenthal attacked him, and you attacked him. Given that I don't think that's what you meant ... maybe you should try again.

Some writers pander to the blogosphere, focusing on popular stats or topics, or targets, to curry favor. Trust me, I know exactly what to write if I want all Seattle baseball fans to like me and worship what I print. But it's never about that. It can't ever be that way.

We do have to trust you!

This is serious stuff.

Geoff Baker Serious?

When you have the power to ruin reputations and change lives, it can never be abused. Or gone at in a half-hearted way.

Most people don't consider "the ability to write and publish an article about a game" to be the same thing as "the power to ruin reputations and change lives," but I think that misunderstanding says a whole lot about just who Geoff Baker is.

And the ability to think about those things beforehand, truly, is what separates real journalists -- serious ones, not Jason Blair types -- from basement bloggers. Speaking only for myself, I would never let things deteriorate to the point where I'd be scrambling around on TV like that blogger yesterday. I've written some controversial stuff over the years, some well-received, some not, by the public.

Yeah, since you have your Professional Journalist Card, you know how to prepare for TV interviews. They don't cover that in Blogging School.

But I'll defend it to the day I die. I can and have looked folks in the eye.

Okay, okay, fine! You can look people in the eye! We trust you!

And that's really, when you cut away all the nonsense about "the fan's pulse'' that I heard on TV yesterday, what we're talking about here. Accountability. Not just to others, but to yourself. Can you, in your heart of hearts, defend what you did? Because when you strip away the b.s., you're all alone on something like this. There won't be any friends there to save you. No editors to hold your hand. When stuff blows up, it's you out there against the world. And if you don't truly believe in your story and yourself, it's a lonely place to be.

Geoff Baker would know, I guess.

So, if that belief is waning, the trained professional truly thinks twice. If you can't live with the consequences of what you do, don't do it. Don't put yourself in a position where you'll have to wind up on a national TV stage with a too-bright camera light making you look even more nervous than you already are,

I don't think Morris expected his post to blow up the sports world for a news cycle. And, speaking as a sports blogger in the midwest, we don't really think anything we write is going to result in us winding up on national television.

And I can't tell if finishing his article with a comma was a somewhat clever indication that this story is not over, or if it's an amusing example of a newspaperman writing without an editor, or if that's just how Geoff Baker fucking rolls. And frankly, all three possibilities are great options.

But what are my thoughts, you ask?

Given how venomous and desperate mainstream writers are getting, and how quick they are to turn even the most innocuous issue into another chapter of the ongoing Sportswriter vs Blogger war, I think they can see the writing on the wall. Morris actually wrote a well thought out and well-researched article about Raul Ibanez, but Ibanez was only a case study, an example, of a larger trend emerging in this country. And the perpetrators are fans in a bar, bloggers, and professional sportswriters alike.

Morris wrote that that's a problem:

It will be a wonderful day when we can see a great start by a veteran like Ibanez and not immediately jump to speculating about whether steroids or PEDs are involved. We certainly are not at that point yet, however.

I think he's right. And I think it's a blemish on the face of sports media that they were unable to understand this article for what it was, and attacked it for what they assumed it was.

But at least we all learned that Geoff Baker is the baddest man on earth. And he can see straight.

Twins 10 A's 5

2009-06-10T00:00:00-07:00

I only watched the first six innings of the game because I was tired. I would use this time to get on a rant about the uselessness of time zones, but I won't. When I woke up to two text messages that read as follows:

This is getting ugly

and about 15 minutes later from another friend

How the hell do you go into the ninth with a ten run lead and need to call on Nathan to bail you out?

So I rushed to my computer to see what in God's name happened, and saw that our lovely bullpen teamed up with Baker to almost blow the game. Now, Baker pitched very well, but I question the decision to leave him in. You know he will give up a big inning. It hadn't occurred through 8 innings, so by process of elimination it was going to happen in the ninth. Why leave him in? Why not bring in Guerrier or someone to start and finish the ninth? What is probably a worse decision is bringing in Crain with the bases loaded. There is no way he gets three outs without giving up a run. No chance in hell. This is Jesse Crain we are talking about. Anyway, a win is a win (is a win, for some reason Gardy felt like saying it three times on the post game show which apparently FSN re-airs at 6am). The offense looked good, especially in the sixth. Delmon Young had his first extra base hit since April, but he still sucks. Hopefully this Span "dizziness" thing isn't serious and we won't be without him for long.

Who bats leadoff today? Tolbert? Gomez? Not good. I think we need to move Mauer back to the 2 hole. But I bet Gardy does something like Tolbert-Harris-Mauer.... Not cool.

Although I do like that Gardy admitted he might be willing to leave Harris at short and play Punto at second when he comes off the DL this weekend.

Another bit of good news: we have a late afternoon game today followed by 4 day games. Dick mentioned that maybe redmond catches this evening (I think the game is at like 5 central time or something) then Mauer can catch Thursday afternoon and the three day games at Wrigley since he can't DH him.

Twins 11 Tribe 3

2009-06-05T00:00:00-07:00

Scott Baker started for the Twins yesterday afternoon and turned out a fine performance. Although that Cleveland lineup is terrible. It has exactly one good hitter: Vic Martinez. If we had walked him every single time he came up in this series it probably would have been for the best. Anyway, I'll take a good start from Baker if he gives it to me. Even if it is against a AAA team and Victor Martinez.

The top four guys in the lineup were tremendous. Kubel, Morneau, and Span homered, Mauer scored 4 runs. Great day to be at the top of the Twins lineup. The bottom was as terrible as usual. Gardy said he wanted to stretch the success of the top of the lineup all the way through the bottom. That isn't possible when the bottom of your lineup consists of no-talent ass clowns. They aren't slumping, they are just no good. Harris-Redmond-Tolbert-Gomez isn't even the worst bottom of the order we could have fielded. Throw Punto and Young in there and its probably worse.

Liriano goes tonight against King Felix for the third time this year. I am bracing for the worst. And by "bracing" I mean consuming many, many beers. I'm setting the over/under on innings pitched for Liriano at 4.5. Leave your picks in the comments section.

Stay Away From Brett Jackson

2009-06-05T00:00:00-07:00

I normally don't like to deal in the rumor trade, but friend of FG.com Twins Territory has posted a report saying that, apparently, the Twins have their eyes on a college outfielder by the name of Brett Jackson.

Apparently the Yankees and Giants also like him, and he has 20/10 vision. Sounds good, right?

Well, look at this picture:

Look at his body. Note that a good hitter has his head directly above his ass throughout his swing.

Intelligent reader Thrylos recently pointed out that a balance problem exactly like this one could very well be the problem with Delmon Young.

Oh, and another thing! If his vision is so good ... what's he doing swinging at that pitch? Is his unwillingness to take a bad pitch the reason for the Twins' interest, or is it his lack of a power stroke?

This is me hoping some other team makes a mistake on drafting Jackson. The Yankees or Giants may be able to fix his swing; I know for a fact that the Twins won't be able to.

Recipe for Frustration: 2 parts Great, 2 parts Good, 5 parts Suck

2009-06-05T00:00:00-07:00

Yesterday, Posnanski took a look at some interesting things about what makes an offense tick, and the difference between good teams and bad teams; he was, of course, focused on the Royals. But I thought this bit was interesting:

I took a look at every team in the American League and came to the unsurprising conclusion that teams with good 2-3-4 hitters tend to score more runs than teams with crappy 2-3-4 hitters. I know … that’s one of the reasons why I didn’t finish the post. It’s not 100% by the way — when I did the analysis, the Twins had the third best 2-3-4 hitters (by OPS) but were seventh in runs scored. But for the most part, it works … the bottom five teams in OPS for 2-3-4 were also the bottom five teams in runs scored.

He ended up not really writing that much about the connection between 2-3-4 hitters and the overall offense, because a) it's pretty obvious, and b) the Twins kind of break the whole thing down.

First of all, I'm surprised -- and delighted -- that the Twins boast the third best OPS for 2-3-4 hitters in the league. And actually, after thinking about it, the Twins could rank even better, if a) Mauer had been there in May rather than Casilla/Tolbert, and b) Casilla/Tolbert stay the F out of the 2-hole for the rest of eternity.

But what does not surprise me is that the Twins are an outlier in the 2-3-4/runs-scored relationship. It's been the problem for the Twins' offense all season -- we have two of the best players in the league, a very solid leadoff man, a very solid cleanup hitter,* and five spots in the lineup that are offensive not in the traditional run-scoring sense of the word, but rather in the insulting, foul-smelling sense. As in, "the bottom of the order is coming up next inning, might as well make a beer run."

* I'm sure everybody noticed, but Kubel finally blasted a home run yesterday. In fact, he hit a three run homer in the first and again in the second inning. I don't have nearly enough time to look through game logs, and my Retrosheet database is incomplete -- so I don't know how many times that has happened. What I do know is that it was awesome. Another thing I know is that Kubel hadn't homered since May 13. That's a pretty long drought. Before that he hadn't homered since April 25. That's also a long drought. As everyone knows, I'm a huge Kubel supporter. But he really needs to pick up his homer pace here. Morneau is leaving him in the dust.

It's unacceptable that a team with playoff aspirations trots out a daily lineup that is 55% black hole. I mean, they score a lot of runs and win when the top four spots in the order hit like crazy, and that happens surprisingly often. But they're not going to get a 10/15 with 4 HR, 10 RBI, 11 R performance from those spots every night ... which is why you have this thing called a "rest of the team" in the first place.

I know Crede has potential to hit home runs and not get on base -- if he's healthy, that's his game. And Cuddyer showed a flash of being a productive middle of the order hitter, but he's in stage three of his Post Contract Seasonal Plan. The stages:

Suck for an extended period of time
Show a flash of awesomeness like you're going to break out and hit like you're being paid to
Get slowed by a series of nagging injuries which keep you either out of the lineup or ineffective
Sit out most of the rest of the season
Cash a big check

As a Twins fan, I don't like Cuddyer's new Seasonal Plan since he got his big contract. But if you're Cuddyer, it's not that bad.

The real problem is that Gomez can't hit (yet?), Redmond needs to retire, Punto and Tolbert -- why do we have two? -- should play a combined 1-2 games per week, Harris is an average player at best, Casilla has regressed to the point where he doesn't deserve to be on the 25 man roster any more, and Delmon Young is the worst position player in baseball.

Frankly, it's incredible that a team like that can even consider themselves decent. It really speaks to how great Span/Mauer/Morneau/Kubel really are.

Oh, and we really need to do something about the bottom 55% of the order. This simply can't continue.

Twins 4 Tribe 3

2009-06-03T00:00:00-07:00

Kevin Slowey was cruising for 6+ innings last night, until things got bumpy in the 7th. I blame Robby Incmikowski (or whatever the hell his name is) for this. For those of you who weren't watching the FSN telecast, after the sixth inning Incmikowski said something along the lines of "Kevin Slowey now has his sixth consecutive quality start in the books" Not if he gives up 4 runs in the seventh he doesn't. What a jerk.

The homer Mijaresgave up was unfortunate, but Vic Martinez is a great hitter from both sides of the plate so I don't think its an issue. At least there was nobody on base.

The Twins again featured a lineup that had more black holes than I care to count (four) at the bottom. Hopefully Cuddyer and Crede come back soon. Then we will have a lineup that looks something like this:

Span
Mauer
Morneau
Kubel
Cuddyer
Crede
Harris
Free out, I mean second base.
Gomez

As much as I want to like him, we can no longer put Young in the lineup. He is simply over matchedby even mediocre major league pitching. Gomez has shown both on the field an in the stats book that he makes up for his inability at the plate with his exceptional defense.

Once again Joe Mauer has proved he is the second coming. Speaking of Joe, was anyone else bewildered (upset?) that Ullger held Mauer up at third (I don't recall which inning it was, I think it was the third)? He was about halfway home and running at full speed and Ullger throws up the stop sign. If I were Mauer I probably would have kept going. At the very least it would have been a close play at the plate.

If Harris isn't the starting shortstop for the forseeable future Gardy and I will have words.

In other news, check out the sweet new Budweiser Roof Deck going in at Target Field. Looks like a great place to have a few dozen beers and watch the Twins.

Obligatory post since I haven't written in a while

2009-06-02T00:00:00-07:00

Well, the weekend series with the Rays was uninspiring. I'm sure we all knew that with Baker and Liriano going on Friday and Saturday that the Rays would have at least one big inning per game. I really don't know what to think about these two. Liriano bothers me more because he really seems lost when he puts runners on. Baker gets out of jams every once in a while, usually after a homer with runners on, but still...

I don't know how many more starts we can afford to give Liriano. Its not that early anymore. We have a tough west coast road trip on the horizon. Perkins is due back soon. Swarzak has looked good. All of these are reasons that Liriano needs to go somewhere to get his act together. Whether that be AAA (which I doubt, since he has shown he can dominate AAA hitters, and still suck in the Majors), or just go down to Florida and work with a sports psychologist and some pitching coaches. Everyone seems to agree that his problems are largely mental. There isn't an obvious flaw in his mechanics like with Baker in a few of his early starts. We can talk over and over again what should be done, but I think its clear nobody really knows. If Perkins comes back healthy, and Swarzak has another good outing, I bet they move Liriano out of the rotation. Which is for the best.

Another problem that needs to be taken care of is Delmon Young. Can't we put him on the DL for a long time with one of those "anxiety disorder" things that everyone seems to be doing? I mean his mother did just die, so its not like it is TOTALLY unbelievable. We can't keep trotting him out there everyday, as he is the worst outfielder in the AL (to go along with Nick Punto also being one of the worst everyday players in the AL). As Gleeman pointed out yesterday, Gomez makes up for his terrible offense with excellent defense, thus making him slightly above replacement level. Young on the other hand is atrocious on both sides of the ball, thus making him one of the worst in the league in terms of RAR.

Harris needs to be in the lineup everyday, not because he is a great player, but because he is the best middle infielder on the major league roster. Hands down. Do we call up Steve Tolleson at any point soon? When Punto comes back he is going to have a guaranteed spot in the lineup, so my guess is either Casilla or Tolbert go back to AAA. Probably Casilla because a) Gardy hates him, and b) Tolbert can play at third, second and short.

These last two problems are very frustrating because the top 6 on this years team is probably the best top 6 the Twins have had in a while. However, the bottom three are the worst bottom three that any team has had in a while. Span-Mauer-Morneau-Kubel-Cuddyer-Crede is outstanding. Young/Gomez-Punto-Tolbert/Casilla is downright awful. Plugging Harris in the seventh spot makes it slightly better, but Gardy needs to come out and say "Harris is my everyday shortstop". Until he does this, I firmly believe that Gardy thinks a Punto-Tolbert middle infield gives the Twins the best chance of winning ballgames. Which it doesn't. No questions. We can't have a repeat of 2007 where s horribly inept player is allowed to play everyday all year. When someone sucks replace them. Don't let them work their problems out while helping the team lose.

Punto to the DL; Tolbert to the Bench; Casilla is Back

2009-05-30T00:00:00-07:00

Huge news, everyone! Take it La Velle:

The Twins placed Nick Punto on the DL after the game. Brendan Harris will take over at short. Alexi Casilla will move in at second. Matt Tolbert will back them up.

During last night's game I was surprised and saddened that Tolbert batted with the game on the line -- wait, not saddened; what's that word? Oh yes, furious.

Matt Tolbert is not a good baseball player. I mean, Gardy and all the guts-loving/talent-hating "baseball people" around the Twins love Tolbert because he's "a baseball player," but the thing is that he lacks any semblance of talent. His skillset is exactly that of Punto, which would be valuable except for:

Tolbert is worse at every single skill
We already have the real Punto
You don't need multiple average-glove-no-hit-utility-infielders on one team

Punto being banged up was the reason Tolbert had to bat last night in the 9th, when both Buscher and Young were sitting on the bench; neither of them can play second base, and Punto couldn't come out to play the field.

What might Gardy have done?

I asked Gardy what would he have done in the eighth if Harris had gotten on and Tolbert had to hit. “I would have done something,” he said. Then he said he might have sent Delmon Young up to pinch hit, then used him in the infield. Wow.

Wow, indeed. You know, Delmon doesn't actually hit that badly for a middle infielder.

Well, hopefully Casilla's got his head straight now and can start contributing. I'm curious as to whether Mauer will contine to bat second now that Gardy's got his "number two hitter" back.

And now that Tolbert has been relegated to his rightful place as a "plays once a week backup" type player and The Tolbert Experience has now ended, we can go ahead and say it:

The Tolbert Experience sucked. He actually made me miss Casilla's mistakes.

Gardy Has Casilla Batting 9th ... For Now

2009-05-30T00:00:00-07:00

Remember this morning when I said I was wondering if Casilla's return would herald Mauer's departure from the second spot in the lineup?

Well, apparently Gardy hasn't gone completely nuts:

Alexi Casilla is here. He’s in a much better frame of mind than he was when he was sent down. But Gardy has him batting ninth. The manager would love to move Casilla back into the No. 2 spot but wants him to hit his way there first.

Especially with Mauer's added power, I also wouldn't mind seeing Casilla get back into the 2 hole, but he does have to prove he can do it. You prove you can do it by hitting the ball. So hopefully Casilla proves he can hit again, and Gardy sticks to his guns and doesn't move him back up in the lineup until he does it.

Liriano is not The Franchise

2009-05-29T00:00:00-07:00

Jim Souhan emerged from hiding today to do his very best to hide what might be an interesting idea deep within his typical tired dreck. I'll skip over the bullshit and go straight to the thesis.

Glen Perkins probably will return from the disabled list in the middle of June, after two starts in the minor leagues. If Swarzak continues to pitch well in his next two starts, the Twins should keep him in the rotation and let Perkins replace Liriano, and move him to the bullpen.

Given that Perkins is the one with more bullpen experience, I was kind of expecting him to be the one relegated to the pen if Swarzak continues pitching well. But this could actually be interesting. Perkins doesn't have great stuff, and his role in the bullpen has been as a long reliever rather than a late inning guy. It would be far too dangerous to rely on Perkins in the 8th inning of a close game if he hasn't already been rolling for seven.

But let's do a little more investigating than Souhan is capable of. Check out Liriano's numbers...

The first time through the lineup, opponents hit just .163/.253/.263 against him, with a 26/8 K/BB ratio and just 5 runs in 91 batters. The second time: .325/.400/.575 with a 12/9 K/BB and 13 runs in 90 batters. The third time? .396/.460/.717 with a 9/8 K/BB and 21 R in 64 batters. (Holy shit, were you aware that 33% of the batters who come to the plate for a third time in a game against Liriano SCORE? That's just absurd.)

So his numbers balance out to be pretty crappy overall, and Souhan's gut feeling may actually be correct here.

Let him enter at the beginning of the seventh or eighth inning and throw as hard as he wants for an inning or two. Remove concentration, consistency and stamina from the equation, and let him try to strike out the side.

The overall bad numbers paint an uglier picture than is really there; namely that for the first 2-3 innings of his starts, Liriano is dazzling. We're talking 5.5% of batters come around to score. His times-through-the-order split is what it looks like right before everyone realizes you're a reliever. And given that Liriano definitely has good stuff (just not great stuff like he had three years ago), he'd probably be successful in the bullpen. And the Twins just so happen to be in desparate need of a dominant late inning reliever, who can strike anybody out, and can go 2-3 innings if need be. Liriano, apparently, is exactly that player.

But remember the part about how he simply has better stuff than Perkins? There's a reason the Twins have been giving him every possible opportunity to make it as a starter, and it's not totally because they remember his 2006. Starters are simply vastly more valuable than relievers. In 2006, Liriano was worth 4.1 wins in limited duty (between entering the rotation late and getting injured early). But let's toss out that mirage and look at something else. In 2008, just last year, he was worth 1.4 wins, in just 14 starts.

Last year, how many Twins relievers were worth more than those 1.4 wins? Exactly one, Joe Nathan. In fact, the second best reliever was Craig Breslow and his 0.9 wins. Even in 2006 (the last time the Twins bullpen was any good), only two relievers bested that 1.4 win mark -- Nathan and Rincon's career year. This point has been hashed and re-hashed about a million times here on the wide open plains of the internet, but it's worth repeating: it doesn't matter how good a reliever is, he's just not as valuable as a good starter.* Even Mariano Rivera last year -- one of his best -- wasn't as valuable as Mussina, Pettitte, and Chamberlain's few starts.

* I know a lot of people don't buy it, but Nathan wasn't nearly as valuable in 2008 as Baker, Slowey, and Blackburn. No reliever is EVER as valuable as the team's top 3-4 starters.

So it's totally understandable that the Twins would want Liriano to be a starter.* Maybe the first time through the lineup is the real Liriano, and if he can only be taught to concentrate and stay consistent he can become a dominant starter! Surely that's the dream in the hallways of the Twins front office.

* Even though it's pretty obvious that the Twins have absolutely no way to figure it out based on any sort of objective system.

The problem is that it's not going to happen. He's not that guy any more. So if the choice is down to a pretty good chance of 6-7 innings and 1-3 runs from Swarzak and Perkins every time out, versus one of them plus a pretty good chance of 4-6 runs in 5-6 innings from Liriano ... then you go with what's more likely to win you ballgames, and that's not Liriano. Liriano fulfilling his destiny as a dominant late inning reliever would be a very nice bonus.

It's close to time to declare that Francisco Liriano is not, in fact, The Franchise. But that doesn't mean he can't still be a big success.

PS: Here's a bonus for everyone who actually read all the way through this on a Friday afternoon. Proof that Souhan doesn't actually watch the games!

Swarzak pitched 11 scoreless innings to start his big-league career. He has given up three earned runs in 13 innings, and one of them resulted from a misplay of a bloop to right-center in the seventh inning Thursday.

Really? Swarzak's third run scored on a misplay of a bloop to right center? Because I saw that play, and it scored on a fly ball to right, on which the right fielder (Kubel) actually made a great play and threw the runner out at the plate. The umpire screwed up the call and then ejected the catcher, but I think calling it a "misplay of a bloop" demonstrates one of the following:

Jim Souhan didn't watch the game
Jim Souhan doesn't know anything about baseball

I can't decide which is more likely (though they're probably both true). I just find it quite amusing. In fact, it makes me glad I didn't rant about that play. I feel much better about it now that I have Souhan's "take" on the whole ordeal.

Twins 5 Red Sox 2

2009-05-27T00:00:00-07:00

Nick Blackburn got off to a rough start, throwing 44 pitches in the first two innings, but settled down after needing just 5 in the third. He set a career high with 7 strikeouts, including Jason Bay two times. He seemingly let the leadoff man reach in every inning, but stranded him more often than not, not with the normal Blackburn DP grounder, but with lots of well placed strikeouts. Guerrier and Nathan combined to look like a ghost of bullpens past in quickly dispatching the Red Sox in the 8th and 9th innings respectively.

On the offensive side of the ball, it was Justin Morneau who provided most of the offense. While the bottomof the order actually contributed. Even Punto had two hits (I still wish we could let our pitchers bat and DH for either 2B or SS). Mauer had a rare bad game, notching two strikeouts against Jon Lester. He did work a walk and score on the Morneau blast.

Delmon Young had another terrible game at the plate, although he did make a nice running catch in left. The Twins need to do something about him. He clearly is a talented player, but is simply over matched in the majors. Can we send him down to triple A for the rest of the season to figure his shit out? If not I think he will become more and more frustrated with each terrible at bat and spiral into the category of "biggest draft busts". Maybe he will breakout when he is 27 like one Michael Cuddyer, but we can't afford to keep him around for 4-5 years if they will be 4-5 years of terribleness. We also need to do something about the middle infield situation. Those two clowns are two black holes in the lineup. At least Gardy learned to bat them at the bottom of the order. Took him long enough.

Tonight is Slowey vs. Dice-K, lets try to pull out a series win by getting tonights game, and getting behind Swarzak in the finale tomorrow afternoon against Josh Beckett.

The Blackburn Silences The White Wox, and the Offense Rolls

2009-05-22T00:00:00-07:00

Yesterday afternoon's game was a fun finish to an abysmal road trip, as the offense took out their frustrations after a week's worth of being shut down. Unfortunately for me, and therefore for you, the game was on in the afternoon, and we were playing the White Sox ... which means MLB.tv doesn't allow me to watch it and I happen to not have cable at my office.* So I had to listen on the radio.

* Maybe I should bring this up with my boss.

I'd say the big story of this game is that Gardy changed the lineup in such a way that it emphasizes our best hitters and obviously improves our chances of scoring runs. The "stop giving away an out in front of Mauer/Morneau/Kubel" strategy paid early dividends, when Kubel's base hit scored Mauer from second and moved Morneau to third with just one out, keeping a scoring chance in play for Cuddyer and Crede. They didn't come through, but the new lineup configuration immediately increases the number of scoring chances, and we'll come through on some of them.

We've been saying around here that our best possible lineup features Mauer batting second, with a top of the order of Span/Mauer/Morneau/Kubel, and Gardy finally went with it. Given that we know Gardenhire hates offensive production and benches players who hit well, and actively avoids things that might help us score more runs ... is there any chance we stick with this lineup? Let's see what the players think.

"I like that lineup," said Cuddyer, who was 4-for-6 with four runs scored and three RBIs. "If we score 20 runs a night, heck yeah."

So Cuddyer's all for it.

"I like scoring 20 runs," Mauer added. "I don't know, I think it worked today. If we keep scoring runs, I guess we'll just have to see how it goes."

Mauer probably knows that any lineup would have worked really well the way everyone in the lineup was hitting all day, so there's no need to go crazy. But since we're the bloggingest blog of blogs, and blogs are best when they're crazy, Mauer can stuff it because we're going to get crazy.

But Gardenhire put a stop to the fun, saying the lineup will be different again Friday, crediting the bottom of the order with the bulk of the club's success.

Gardy is crediting the bottom of the order for our success in that game? Is it possible he's unaware that Punto went 0-4 with 3 strikeouts in this game? And what did I say about avoiding things that improve our chances of scoring? Why in blazes are you changing the lineup that scored you 20 runs without even giving it another go? Oh, and I'll point out two things:

Tolbert isn't going to start hitting more home runs now ... please don't move him back up in the order
Morales had yet another great game, in the bottom of the order which was apparently the whole reason we scored runs today ... but you sent his ass down to AAA in return. Way to reward performance, coach.

How difficult is it for Gardy to admit that Mauer and Cuddyer basically won this game?

"Sure the big guys there are killers," Gardenhire said, "but the guys at the bottom of the lineup got on the bases to load them up for those guys. The guys at the bottom did their job today."

Um, yes. Did their jobs. Tolbert's job is to hit home runs, and he did that. For the first time in his career. Morales's job is to get hits and then smile when he's demoted when he does it. Punto's job is to strike out every time* but really look like he's trying.

* He didn't really strike out every time. He reached on an error on which Betemit's throw hit him in the back of the head. Did I mention that I didn't get to watch this game? Argh!

Oh yeah, and remember when Cuddyer and Crede hit back to back home runs? Well, Morales made his only out of the game as the next batter, when he put the ball on the warning track. He just had an awesome game.

I had my quarterly review yesterday afternoon at 3:00 PM, and I left my desk with Denard Span coming to the plate in the 6th against Gobble. So ... yes. I missed Mauer's grand slam. I left with a 12-0 lead and returned with a 20-1 win. It was awesome. But I still would have preferred to be there for Mauer's blast. He's on pace for 47 homers this year, if he gets exactly 500 plate appearances. Wow.

But in order to win a game 20-1, you can't just score runs. You also need some pitching. And since that's been our problem lately, I think it's worth mentioning. Blackburn looked great out there, and was removed after 7 IP having thrown just 82 pitches. Apparently they would have let him go for the shutout if the game had been closer ... which doesn't make sense until you realize that he'd been sitting in the dugout for a long time several times during the game while we batted around. So it's no big deal.

Bigger deal? Bringing in the 8th inning setup guy, Mijares, with a 20 run lead. Then bringing in Nathan with a 19 run lead.* Are you joking? Can't one of our crappier pitchers be trusted to hold onto a 20 run lead in the 8th and 9th? I mean, you trust them with a 1 or 2 run lead, but 20 is too dangerous?

* Oh, that run? It was unearned, and scored because Tolbert made an error. Those guys just keep doing their jobs.

How did Blackburn feel about his performance?

"The White Wox were just swinging at everything today, so it didn't take too long to get three outs," the Blackburn said.

I like everything about this quote. I mean, I really like everything about this quote. Firstly, I'm going to go ahead and hope this wasn't a typo, and that he did in fact call them "The White Wox," and in support of that I'm going to start calling them that. Secondly, am I the only one who thinks he was insulting them? Because that would be awesome.

And finally, the quote was topped off by calling him "The Blackburn," which is at least among the coolest modern baseball nicknames.

This win certainly makes the six game losing streak sting a little less. And I find myself amused that we finished off a 1-6 road trip with a +7 run differential. It felt bad while we were losing, but we actually weren't doing that badly. Things just didn't go our way for a while, and that can happen.

Hopefully the breaks start falling in our favor for a while, and hopefully the hits keep coming, and hopefully the lineup doesn't change back to the "fuck scoring" configuration that Gardy prefers, and hopefully the other pitchers try to learn something from The Blackburn.

Let's go get those Brewers!

From the airport: Striking out Gomez

2009-05-22T00:00:00-07:00

I'm at the airport right now, blogging from the iPhone. I imagine, therefore, that this post won't be a long one.

By the way, I'll be at the dome on Saturday sporting my Free Jason Kubel t-shirt -- courtesy of those crazy guys over at some blog called Fire Gardy -- so if you see me feel free to run up and leave a comment. Or, as I understand it is commonly called in the non-blog world, say hello.

Anyway, I was just reading FanGraphs, and they're looking at the players who tend to get called out on strikes. The guys they looked for strike out in over 20% of their plate appearances ... And who do you think is right up there among the leaders of "percentage of strikeouts that are NOT of the swinging variety?"

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/frozen-at-the-plate/

If you guessed Carlos Gomez (somehow) you'd be right!

I was pretty surprised to see this, given how often it seems like Gomez is flailing wildly at the ball. It just feels like he records a swinging strikeout a couple times per game.

But remember that talk in spring training about how Gomez was changing his approach at the plate, and that his newfound plate discipline would lead to more walks? Well, the walks haven't come, but it's certainly had an effect.

I don't have copy-paste on my iPhone, and for the first time since I've had it this annoys me... because I can't quote the article. So I encourage you to click through and actually read the thing.

Where you can also note that Gomez is the only guy in the top five that doesn't really hit any home runs. I wonder what that means.

But if I remember the gist of it, Gomez has indeed changed his approach. He's swinging at fewer pitches, and has actually cut down on the number of pitches outside the strike zone that he swings at. He's also laying off more inside the zone, though.

So he's cut way down on his forward facing K's, with a smaller increase in backward facing ones. (I doubt this phone has that character.) Unfortunately, the new "discipline" is not accompanied by any new knowledge of the strike zone, or vision, which would help with his walks.

Still, I though this was pretty interesting. Every once in a while some statistic stands up and points out that one of your assumptions is incorrect. That happened to me this afternoon, and this it's time for me to adjust the insults I hurl at Gomez while he's "hitting."

Who said stats aren't useful?

Posted via email from sirsean.posterous

The Failure of the Rotation is Worse than the Failure of the Bullpen

2009-05-21T00:00:00-07:00

We've been talking a lot about the bullpen, and its repeated failures. But those failures are totally meaningless if the starters are awful ... and lately, the starters have been awful.

It's demoralizing for Slowey and Blackburn to have a good-to-great start erased by the bullpen late in the game. But what can the team do if the starter blows up early? In two of our last three games, the Twins' offense took a 2-0 lead, followed immediately by the starter losing that lead in the next half inning; in both cases, the lead was gone before an out was recorded, and the scoring didn't stop there.

On Monday, Perkins lasted only two outs, turning a 2-0 lead into a 6-2 deficit before handing the ball over to Dickey and heading off to the DL. On Wednesday, Liriano worked around his command issues through three innings, before the Twins took a 2-0 lead in the top of the fourth. Liriano quickly gave up 7 runs in the bottom of the fourth, and was done for the day, handing the ball over to Ayala.

In both cases the bullpen did a stellar job, holding the Yankees to 1 additional run (in 7.1 IP) on Monday and 0 additional runs (in 4 IP) on Wednesday. Dickey looked good, and while Ayala gave up what ended being the deciding run in a 7-6 loss on Monday, he actually looked good on Wednesday in 3 dominant and scoreless innings.

I don't know if it was the roster move that basically told them "we're willing to lose you on waivers if you don't shape up, and you're next," or if Ayala and Dickey just prefer to pitch in blowout losses where the outs aren't important. We'll see as time goes on.

But if Perkins doesn't come back healthy and looking good, and if Baker continues to pitch with his new wallet in his pocket, and if Liriano doesn't re-discover how to command his fastball ... it's not really going to matter if good starts by Slowey and Blackburn are wasted. The Twins are not going to be winning any ballgames.

Frankly, it seems like these are all mental issues. As soon as the Twins take a lead, the starter gives it away. As soon as a baserunner reaches, there's an immediate danger of a big inning, because the pitchers are letting everything that happens get to them. If Rick Anderson and Gardy had some sort of tricks in the past that helped with this stuff, it's not working any more.

It's not that early any more. It's time to start playing ball.

Goodbye Craig Breslow

2009-05-20T00:00:00-07:00

The Twins cut Craig Breslow today (he was claimed by Oakland), and promoted righthander Anthony Swarzak. Swarzak will start on Saturday against the Brewers in place of the injured Perkins. Speaking of Perkins, it sounds like nothing is seriously wrong and he should be good to go when his 15 days are up. The only problem I have with this is as follows: Does that mean his inability to get guys out the last few starts was due to general suckiness and not an injury?

I like the Breslow move. The current bullpen clearly wasn't working so changes had to be made. It looks like someone did go to jail, or in this case Oakland. Which is basically the same thing.

Thats all for today. Liriano goes tonight looking to snap the five game losing streak we are currently on. Is anyone else's mouth drooling at the thought of playing the delicious NL soon?

Sean Henn gets the call and other Tuesday thoughts

2009-05-19T00:00:00-07:00

Perkins was placed on the disabled list today, and will be replaced by Sean Henn. Henn has appeared in 15 games for the Red Wings, pitching 24 innings, giving up 3 earned runs (but 7 unearned, ouch) with a 32/10 K/BB ratio. That's a 12.0 K/9. Not half bad. His major league track record hasn't been great. He has spent time with the Yankees and the Padres.

Apparently Perkins was trying to pitch through elbow inflammation, which is never a good idea. Hopefully this has been the cause of his recent May suckiness, not simply being a bad pitcher. The bigger question is, who will replace Perkins in the rotation? If its just one start my money is on Dickey, just like they did with Baker. However, "elbow inflammation" never seems to last one start so they will have to call someone up. The only pitchers in Rochester that are currently on the 40 man roster are Duensing, Armando Gabino, and Anthony Swarzak. Duesning and Swarzak are starters so they are the two obvious choices. Unless we want to grab someone from double A, which I would have no problem with. It just seems that the Twins MO is to use AAA as their source for stop-gap players, only allowing players to jump from AA to the Majors if its for a full time job.

Hopefully this Sean Henn move injects some life (and by life I mean ability to get people out) into the bullpen. I was hoping one of Slama or Delaney would be called up, but the fact that they weren't further proves my AA vs. AAA theory. If Henn turns out to be valuable, perhaps like Breslow last year, who will the Twins part ways with when Perkins comes back? My money is on Ayala, even though he was moderately effective last night. He just isn't any good.

Speaking of last night, how about Dickey being basically the only reason we were still in that game. After Perkins threw BP for 2/3 of an inning (even one of his outs was a warning track fly ball) Dickey came in for 4.1 innings and shut the Yankees down. Impressive. We still need to do a better job of hitting with RISP. Maybe we should practice it more. Oh wait, you can't do that. I think we have finally proved that what the Twins did last year was almost entirely luck. Its unfortunate, but I think our increased (or at least seemingly increased, I haven't looked at the stats) walk totals will help us greatly. Especially now that Cuddyer is heating up, and Crede seems to be turning a corner.

Brendan Harris needs more at bats. If Gardy is going to play Tolbert as the regular second baseman, at least don't bat him second. Have a terrible hitter breaking up our best hitters is probably one of the worst ideas ever. Similar to Napoleon's "I can invade Russia during the winter" idea. Or Chamberlain's "Sure Hitler, you can have the Sudetenland back". Yes, I just compared two of the greatest political and military failures in history to Ron Gardenhire batting Matt Tolbert second. Deal with it.

Leave your suggestions for Perkins rotation replacements in the comments. Please, no more discussion of the Yankee series. Let's just go to Chicago and kick some White Sox ass.

Gardy Has Lost All Faith in the Bullpen -- And They Fail Again

2009-05-17T00:00:00-07:00

That was certainly a tough spot for Gardy in the eighth inning on Saturday afternoon's game. Blackburn had looked good, getting through seven innings and giving up just a three run homer to Mark Teixeira,* and we'd just rallied to take the lead 4-3.

* Does anyone else think Teixeira is really dialing up his game against the Twins? He's hit .369/.416/.653 in his career against the Twins, which is the third best he's done against any other team. (After the Nationals and the Indians.) The reason for that can't be Gomez, that was too recent. However, given how quick Teixeira was to explode at Gomez about something that was neither of their fault and was just part of the game, there may be a pre-existing issue here. I wonder if he blames us for not taking him first overall? Some baseball players have been mistreated ... but, like people, some of them are just jerks.

Blackburn had already thrown 98 pitches, but with the knowledge that the bullpen is simply awful, Gardy couldn't in good conscience bring in a reliever. Unfortunately, Blackburn surrendered a run in the 8th to tie the game, wasting the rally and his strong start.

I appreciate the fact that he disregarded the almighty 100 pitch count and left the starter out there for an extra inning. But we really shouldn't have to do that. This demonstrates the fact that Gardy has realized that we simply don't have an 8th inning reliever right now, and it's found yet another way to cost us a game.

After extending Guerrier to another 2 inning outing,* we had to go to Breslow. He managed to record an out in the 10th, which was a minor miracle, but he couldn't do the same in the 11th. He walked Teixeira and gave up a walkoff home run to A-Rod. There's a reason that when Breslow comes in I immediately say "Well, here comes a walk and a home run." And it's because when he comes in, he gives up a walk and a home run.

* As I wrote the other day, we can't keep using Guerrier like this. He looked good in those 2 innings, but this kind of thing is what wrecked his arm -- and possibly his career -- in 2008. If the plan is just to ride him until he blows out his shoulder and then cast him aside, then fine, but I don't think that's what we should be doing.

Another thing I said when Breslow came in was that for some reason, Gardy was still using our relievers as if it's wise to use a pitcher for one batter in an extra inning game. He came in to face Damon, and I thought it was simply inconceivable to have him face Teixeira and Rodriguez, given that they're both right handed power bats ... and Breslow sucks. Again, it's a tough spot.

Frankly, I wanted to be able to write about Mauer and Morneau today. This is the second time this season that they've both homered in consecutive games. While I think that's awesome, we're having serious OBP problems in the 2-hole -- all five of the home runs the Twins have hit in this series have been solo shots. That's pretty bad.

The Twins have come close to beating their New York curse in each of the first two games of the series, and each time have come up painfully short. Let's see what they can do this afternoon.

A New Nemesis Emerges, Creating a New Pair of Delmons

2009-05-16T00:00:00-07:00

This post was supposed to be about Justin Morneau hitting two home runs on his birthday.

It was supposed to be about Mauer getting his fifth homer, which he didn't do last year until July 12.

It was supposed to be about Liriano struggling but battling through command problems to get through 6 innings while giving up only one run.

Instead, it's about our two new Delmons in the outfield, our new nemesis, and a blown save by Nathan.

Crain pitched the 7th inning, and actually looked pretty good until the Twins' new nemesis -- Brett Gardner -- came to the plate and blooped a single down the left field line. Denard Span ran toward it, then slowed down at the last second and didn't make much of an attempt to field it, just flailing his glove at the ball lamely as it scooted on by him. He then overshot by several feet and bounced against the wall, despite the fact that he was moving slowly to begin with. He Delmoned* Gardner's single into an inside the park home run. Crain then fell apart, and had to be replaced by Mijares, who barely got out of the inning.

* I like this verb. I'm going to start using it.

It wouldn't have been so bad ... we ended up taking a 4-2 lead into the 9th. But Gardner led off that inning too, and lined a single to right center. Gomez for some reason just slapped the ball as he ran past it, leaving Cuddyer to hunt down the immobile ball sitting near the warning track and get it back into the infield. Gomez had played Gardner's single into a triple.

Nathan couldn't get anybody out. We lost the game 5-4 after intentionally walking Robinson Cano (for some reason) so we could face Melky Cabrera. Nathan threw 27 pitches, after having thrown a lot of innings over the past week. He probably needs a couple of days off, so hopefully we can win big a couple of times.*

* Heh. Yeah right.

In case you wanted to know what a game turning against us once we have it in the bag looks like, here's a picture:

Games like this feel devastating, and seem like they should be right up on the list of painful losses. But all losses are painful, and we've pulled out some unlikely wins ourselves over the last few days. That kind of thing tends to even out, and this time it just happened rather quickly. These games will happen. It hurts, but we just have to come out the next day and play better. The team simply can't afford to get down right now.

Though it'd be nice to start winning in New York.

Twins 6 Tigers 2

2009-05-13T00:00:00-07:00

Clete Thomas should know better than to try and rob Joe Mauer twice in one game. In an unusual display of power so far, Mauer has blasted 4 homers so far this season. Which is excellent.

The Mauer and Crede homers gave Kevin Slowey a nice lead to work with for most of his 6 innings. He only gave up the one run but struggled. He seemingly couldn't get the leadoff man out. Slowey threw 98 pitches in 6 innings, so everyone knew Gardy wasn't going to let him out there for the 7th. Instead he brought in Jesse Crain because he hadn't given up a homer all year, the only pitcher to accomplish that feat. Well apparently he got lonely in that club so he served one up to someone named Jeff Larish. He also threw 11 pitches, only 4 were for strikes. FOUR! What the hell is that?

As was the case in the weekend series, the Twins drew lots of walks. 7 in this game. The only people who didn't draw a walk were Span (which is a surprise), Young (which isn't) and Crede. Cred had a homer and Span had two hits, so its OK.

Mauer had another superhuman game. Was 2-3 with a homer (almost 2) 2 RBI, 1 run, and a walk. His average now sits at an even 500. Looks as if he got his revenge on the Tigers for playing poorly against them last week.

Outside of Crain the bullpen look fine. Mijares got some big outs, as did Guerrier. Nathan looked excellent as always while pitching a perfect ninth.

One criticism is I would like for us to cut down on strikeouts while we increase our walk totals. The team struck out a total of 8 times, including 2 each by Span and Tolbert.

Tonight we face the man formally known as D-Train. Hopefully we can tee off on him early and often. He was on the DL with "anxiety" problems. Translate that as inability to get anyone out. Hopefully Harris is in the lineup tonight. Dick and Bert interviewed him from the dugout last night and I commend him for not wanting to go Kyle Lohse on people while losing playing time to Punto, Casilla and Tolbert.

Is anyone else frustrated that Gardy has turned Gomez into nothing more than a late inning defensive replacement for Young? I like Delmon more than most people, probably more than anyone (here is a piece by intelligent firegardy.com reader thrylos98.) Gomez has too much damn potential to be rotting away on a bench to get at most 4 at bats a week.

Time to throw away the concept of Bullpen Roles

2009-05-13T00:00:00-07:00

To nobody's surprise, the bullpen has been the team's biggest weakness this year. This is unusual for a Gardy-Era Twins team, and it is extremely painful to watch the pen waste good starts and acceptable offensive performances. We're not used to that here in Twins-land, and it sucks. But what can be done about it? Most of the guys who are struggling the most are the same guys who had success for us in the past. Crain used to be an extremely effective reliever; is it possible that he simply hasn't recovered from his shoulder injuries? Guerrier also used to be very effective, especially while he was transitioning from long reliever to trusted late innings setup guy; but did he get overused last year, and will he be able to bounce back?

Of the two, Crain is much worse right now. In his last two appearances, he has not recorded an out. Single, single, wild pitch, double, done. Home run, walk, done. This is not at all what happens when a viable late inning reliever enters the game. The best thing for Crain right now is to stay out of (major league) games and work on his mechanics, and possibly to get his head on straight. The best thing for the team is to get Crain the hell out of there and only let him back if he demonstrates he can locate his pitches consistently. It's probably close to the time to discover some sort of "injury" and put him on the DL.* And if it turns out he doesn't get straightened out, then that's that. It's over.

* In honor of Dontrelle Willis returning to the majors to face us tonight, I propose that we put Crain on the DL with "anxiety." We cannot allow that "injury" to fall by the wayside; we need to keep an AL pitcher out with anxiety at all times. Of course, we could also go the route the Mariners did with Silva or the Yankees did with Wang, and put him on the DL with "he sucks"-itis.

It's tough to analyze what might be wrong with Guerrier. It doesn't seem to be his command (12 K vs 3 BB in 18 IP). But he's give up 12 hits in those 18 innings, and 7 runs. In some outings he can locate the ball and record outs; in others, he just gets shelled. Could it have something to do with the fact that his workload last year was ridiculous and this year, once again, he's leading the club in relief innings? Guerrier's biggest problem very well could be that Gardy can't trust anyone else in the bullpen.* So let's get to talking about them, shall we?

* Except Joe Nathan, of course, who has pitched fewer innings than Guerrier, Ayala, and Dickey. Seriously. Whose idea is it to give the most innings to the least effective pitchers?

Luis Ayala (in)famously signed a $1.3M contract to come to the Twins and lose ballgames for us. So we're getting what we paid for, in that when he enters the game, we lose. He's pitched 15.1 innings, and given up 21 hits, 4 walks, and recorded just 10 strike outs. Oh yeah, and 9 runs.* We can't afford to bring this guy into games any more, which just adds to Guerrier's workload. Ayala is performing just about exactly as well as he could reasonably be expected to perform (maybe better, actually) ... he's not going to improve, he's not going to turn any corners. He is what he is: awful. He needs to go as soon as possible. No fake injuries, no DL. Release him.

* Shockingly, he's only given up 1 homer this year. It really feels like more.

I had high hopes for Breslow coming into the season, based on the fact that he appeared to improve dramatically after we plucked him off waivers from the Indians. Last year he wasn't used as a lefty specialist, but just as another 1 inning reliever, and it worked to his liking. But after jettisoning Reyes, Gardy needed to fill the "lefty specialist role" in his mental roster, and so Breslow has been thrust into it simply by virtue of the fact that he throws left handed. How has it worked? 10.2 IP, 8 H, 10 BB, 8 K ... 9 runs. He's even worse than Ayala. And look at it this way: he's already 28 years old, and we only got him because the Cleveland Indians (whose bullpen woes are at least as bad as ours) cut him. He doesn't have much of a future. I don't know how long we should stick with this guy. Especially given his facial expressions and body language on the mound -- even BEFORE he throws a pitch.

RA Dickey was brought in as a quirky knuckleballing long reliever, and everyone assumed that he could go 5 innings every day if we needed him to. After all, knuckleballers can do that, right? Well, he hasn't really been able to do it this year. He's gone over 2 IP in an outing just twice, and never completed 3 IP. He's had performances of 0.0 IP, 0.1 IP, and 0.2 IP. Worse, he's given up at least one run in 5 of his 8 relief outings this year. You can't go 5 innings in long relief if you're incapable of recording enough outs. His WHIP is over 1.9! He's giving up 12 H/9! He is Livan Hernandez! His failings here have led to innings for Crain and Guerrier in blowout victories and defeats, which they shouldn't have to do. Even the long reliever needs more than the theoretical ability to not get tired while throwing a baseball. He needs to be able to get guys out. And Dickey has demonstrated over the years that he's not very good at that. He probably needs to go.

Jose Mijares showed promise last year when we called him up in September, and developed an entitled attitude that Twins management really does not care for. He put on a bunch of weight over the offseason,* and showed up in spring training out of shape as if he thought he had a spot locked up. After being taught a lesson and sent to the minors, where he was largely ineffective, we had to call him back up because of the unrepentant crappiness of everyone else in the bullpen. He's actually performed pretty well, with an 11.0 K/9 (the best strikeout rate on the team) against just a 2.5 BB/9. In a recent outing, he gave up a two run homer to Griffey that tied the game; while I wish that hadn't happened, it's not beyond the realm of possibility or anything. The worst part about that was the look on Mijares' face afterwards, as he sat on the bench unsuccessfully trying to hold back tears. You can't show those emotions when you're on the field. Mijares is just 24, though, and presumably has a reasonable future with the Twins. He could step into the 8th inning role, and the only fears I have are: a) that Gardy will overuse him a la Guerrier and Neshek, and b) that Gardy will decide to use him as a lefty specialist rather than a far more valuable "real reliever." I guess I have a third fear ... and it's based on the knowledge that Gardy will definitely do at least one, if not both, of those things.

* Although I have the distinct feeling this was at the request of Gardy, who needed to slot someone into his "ludicrously fat Latino reliever" role.

Finally, that brings us to Nathan, and what will be the overall point of this article (what, you didn't think there'd be one?). Nathan has thrown just 12 IP, and given up all of 2 runs (both on solo homers). He remains one of the elite relievers in the game, which is an extremely valuable asset to have. Unfortunately, like most other "Closers," he is being misused because of his manager's insistence on pandering to the "save" statistic. It is unacceptable that Nathan sits on the bench while Crain and Ayala lose the game in the 8th inning; Nathan should come into the 8th in those situations to save the game when it's needed, rather than wait in the hopes that we can use the best reliever on the team to get 3 outs with a 3 run lead and call it a "save" as if there's something magical about those last three outs.

And this, of course, is the point. Everyone has been ingrained to believe that the members of a bullpen need "roles" in order to perform their duty. That for some reason relievers sit out there in the bullpen NOT ready to pitch, and if you bring them in at the wrong time they'll get confused. That you need to keep your best reliever as The Closer who doesn't pitch unless it's easy. That you need a crappy former 7th starter out there who you can throw out there in blowouts and call him The Long Reliever. That you need a Fat Latino. That you need at least one, and preferably two Lefty Specialists. That you need A Seventh Inning Guy, and also An Eighth Inning Guy. With this old fashioned LaRussian bullpen configuration, you too can be like every other manager in baseball over the last 25 years!

The thing is, relievers are a notoriously unpredictable bunch. Some are consistently good over the course of years, like Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan. Others have a good year or two and disappear, like Pat Neshek and a thousand other guys you saw at one point and have forgotten because it turned out they were nobodies. Others have a good year or two and then linger on, ineffective but trying to recapture past glory -- think Crain and Guerrier. But you can't predict who's going to be which kind, and you also can't predict who's going to be good in any given year. So, despite the fact that the best thing to do is give the jobs to minor leaguers and retreads, and to pitch them based on rest and matchups and leverage (rather than preset roles) ... what teams instead want to do is trade prospects for relievers, or spend millions of dollars on the free agent market, and then give them all roles as if LaRussa was unquestionably correct, and then hope they get lucky that year. And it is just luck, for the most part.

Steven Goldman of Baseball Prospectus points out:

So what is a general manager to do if he wants to end up with the Phillies '08 bullpen and not the Mets '08 bullpen? Prayer might help—that, and a gambler's mentality. For though the instability at the top of the reliever corps is great, the pitchers that move onto the list have to come from somewhere. Quite often, they come from the minor leagues, be they prospects or journeymen. This means that a GM's best option is often also his cheapest option. When we examined the top reliever ranks in 2006, we found that from 1975 through 2005 on average the top 50 contained only 20 pitchers who had thrown more than 10 innings in the majors the previous year. This particular form of turnover seems to have slowed in recent years, with only one-fifth of the list yielding to pitchers who, through injury, inexperience, or ineffectiveness, were largely absent from the major leagues the year before.

So why not throw away the LaRussian bullpen, and dispose of the precious roles? One way to look at it is that this is exactly what Joe Maddon of the Rays did in 2008, and his bullpen was a huge strength of that team.

Personally, I don't really care for that kind of hero-worship. (I just led off with it because if you believe in blindly trusting LaRussa, maybe you'll be convinced by an exhortation to blindly trust Maddon.) The I prefer to look at this is that it frees you from sticking to a rigid method of using your bullpen, and allows you to use pitchers in situations that they are either a) most likely to succeed in, or b) most needed in. Sure, sometimes you'll bring in the best reliever with a lead in the 9th; but sometimes you'll have a 3 run lead and you can go with someone else. Sometimes you will have already used the best reliever in the 7th or 8th with men on base, and need to go with someone else to start the 9th.* Even if the second or third best reliever blows the game in the 9th (which is not likely since ALL relievers, overall, convert over 90% of "save situations," so the value of having a truly elite closer is, in reality, minimal), you can rest easy in the knowledge that you probably wouldn't have even HAD a save situation in the first place if Luis Ayala had come in to face a good hitter with men on base -- they would have scored and we would have lost with Nathan sitting down. And then we'd have to let Nathan into a game with a wider margin and absolutely no leverage, just to let him get his work in.

* The common refrain here is that "closers aren't as good when it's not a save situation." This is most likely a case of seeing something happen once or twice and ascribing it to be related to a previously held belief. IE, a confirmation bias. The real question is: in a high pressure situation, like men on base and the middle of the order up, would you rather have your best reliever on the mound, or your fourth best? Does it matter whether it's the 8th or 9th inning? Why?

The fact that it's somehow considered a good idea to keep The Closer on the bench during a close loss so that you can save him for the next day when he gets an inning in a blowout "just to get his work in" is laughable at best, and is the clearest sign that something about this absurd status quo needs to change.

Will Gardy start making changes to the way he uses the bullpen? Almost certainly not.

Should he? I think so, absolutely.

Anyhow, why worry? What could happen? Nathan doesn't get saves because he's creating save situations for other pitchers rather than not getting saves because the rest of the bullpen is blowing the lead before he gets the chance?

It's not like the bullpen could actually be worse than it is now. At least TRY to change something in the hopes that it can work better.

A Bitter Ending to an Almost-Good Weekend

2009-05-10T00:00:00-07:00

After the offense awoke on Friday and Saturday, producing 20 runs on the back of 7 homers, including back-to-back shots by Mauer and Morneau on consecutive nights, the bats took a bit of a break on Sunday. Frustratingly, they only took said break with runners on base, as the Twins wasted numerous scoring opportunities in Sunday's series finale against the Mariners.

And the bullpen decided to demonstrate why you can't afford to waste those opportunities, in the course of also wasting a brillian start by Blackburn (7 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K, 0 R).

For dramatic effect, here is a picture of what "snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory" looks like:

With a 2 run lead in the 8th inning, Gardy took a look at the one of the only two stats managers are allowed to adhere to,* and took Blackburn out given that he'd thrown 99 pitches through 7 innings.

* Managers are allowed to look at "pitch count," and remove the starter at 100 pitches regardless of any other consideration. They are also allowed to look at "saves," and keep the closer -- ie, best reliever -- on the bench in a close game when the rest of the bullpen is failing rapidly and losing the game. Despite the fact that both of these things often lead to losing baseball games, managers are not allowed to change their behavior. Gardy is one of the many blind offenders.

Despite the obviousness of the fact that the Twins' best bet to win games is to have the starter go eight scoreless and then bring in Nathan, Gardy decided to flip a 100-sided die in the hopes that a 13 came up -- in other words, he went to the bullpen hoping for the 1-in-100 chance that they didn't blow it.

Unfortunately, Mijares gave up a Home Run Sponsored By Subway* to Ken Griffey Jr, who has now his two of his three home runs on the season against left handed pitchers at the Metrodome. While I personally find that both interesting and depressing, Mijares looked like he just considered it depressing. He spent the rest of the game by himself on the bench looking like he was unsuccessfully trying to hold back tears.

* Griffey's homer went into that hole that says "Win $25000 from Subway" that's been hanging over the baggy for years. It has always been unclear a) who wins the money, a.1) why it would be important to multi-millionaire baseball players to win $25K, a.2) how it might be decided who else might get the money, b) whether the winnings are awarded in cash or in sandwiches. Unfortunately, none of these questions were answered, because after he did it, Subway clarified that these questions are unimportant because it only applies if a Twins player hits in the hole. Which everyone knows will never happen.

By the way, why is Jesse Crain trying to best himself every time out? And by "best himself" I mean "suck even worse than last time, somehow." He came in, faced three batters, and gave up two line drives, a wild pitch, and a blast off the top of the baggie (which was about as close to a home run as Morneau's earlier in the game).

After that, the Twins looked pretty dejected. Especially Craig Breslow, who really didn't look like he wanted to be in the game while he was sucking in the ninth. The one thing I have to say to him is this: Don't worry Craig, we don't want you in the game either.

This story could have ended with a story about a thrilling comeback victory, except Brendan Harris grounded out with the bases loaded after Morrow lost his command in the ninth. But that failure isn't nearly as bad as the bullpen's.

What can possibly be done about these relievers?

Morneau and the Strike Zone

2009-05-07T00:00:00-07:00

I could talk about last night's disaster. I could talk about how Slowey looked terrible, couldn't locate any of his pitches, and was effectively throwing batting practice. I could talk about how that game probably should have been called due to rain, but they inexplicably started it up again to try to speed through the fifth and make it official (it worked).

But I won't. Those things are just daily trivialities, and I know nobody's happy with the way the team is looking right now.

What I am going to talk about is Justin Morneau. Yeah, sure, he's hitting well and his numbers are big and pretty, which kind of negates my theory that his eyes aren't quite back yet. Except ... let's go ahead and get some numbers from Dave Cameron:

Justin Morneau will not wait for you to throw him a strike. Morneau is a very good hitter in the midst of another very good year. He’s the classic left-handed power hitter, driving in runs in bunches in the middle of the order. He’s the kind of hitter that pitchers don’t want to make a mistake to, and are usually willing to put on first base with a base on balls. Only, Morneau won’t let them. He’s drawn just seven walks this year, and it’s not because pitchers are challenging him - he swung at a staggering 51.2% of pitches outside the strike zone last week, the highest mark in the league. His O-Swing% for the season stands at 37.8%, meaning that he’s swinging at nearly two of every five balls that a pitcher throws. I’m not one to critique the work of a guy with a .404 wOBA, but patience is a virtue, Justin.

When Cameron actually has data to back him up, he seems a little less biased.

Look, I know his base numbers are good. Even one level down, his numbers are good. But you're not going to draw that many walks swinging at 50% of the pitches outside of the strike zone. And you're not encouraging pitchers to actually put one over the plate. They're better off nibbling and missing, with the knowledge that Morneau will still swing at it.

Sure, he's good enough that maybe he'll make contact and poke a single to opposite field. It'll keep his batting average up.

But most pitchers will accept an opposite field single from the big slugger, if it means not having to risk putting a fastball over the plate and possibly getting burned.

I don't know if Morneau's strike zone control problems are related to his vision, or if he's trying to do too much, or if he's just decided he doesn't want to be in the batter's box too long, or what. But as long as he's flailing at the ball like Delmon Young, his Morneau-like stats are not sustainable.

Roster Move

2009-05-06T00:00:00-07:00

According to LEN3 the Twins are expected to make a roster move before today's game. It seemed as though everyone in the clubhouse expressed their displeasure with Casilla's mistakes over the last two games.

If you do the simple math in the above summary of Neal's post, you will understand that the Twins will probably send Casilla to AAA. This is probably for the best. Not only has he been a black hole at the plate, but he has been bringing those at bats into the field and making terrible mental errors, some of which are actual errors in the boxscore.

The obvious choice to replace him on the roster is Matt Tolbert. While I don't necessarily agree that this is the best choice, everyone knows Gardy loves him some Tolbert so he will be the first guy up when we need an infielder. Hopefully Harris gets most (or ideally all) of the starts at second until Casilla proves he is a major league starter. Something he really hasn't shown since his wrist injury last summer. As much as I hate to say it, Casilla is forcing me to draw comparisons to Luis Rivas. Very talented, but just can't seem to put the pieces together for more than a few games at a time. We (sirsean in particular) have always been strong supporters of Casilla, but if he is going to play like a goddamn idiot out there, its hard to say he should be in the lineup everyday.

As long as we are booking flights from Rochester to Baltimore and vice versa, can we please send Luis Ayala away? There are several capable relievers in AAA (Delaney, Slama to name a few) that I would rather have in there than Ayala. The Ayala signing didn't get as much flak as the Ponson-esque signings did in the past, but it is very similar. We signed a pitcher who is a crappy veteran to shore up the bullpen, when we had a few capable young arms in the organization already. We have done the same thing with our starting rotation in the past, but I would argue this is just as bad since the bullpen was our biggest weakness last season. So using a repair method that never worked on other parts of our team is a pretty silly way to solve a problem. However, I doubt they will move Ayala. Although I have heard rumblings that Gardy has been discussing Slama with Wild Bill. Bringing up a power pitcher who can strike people out is obviously and improvement over Luis Ayala. Hell, I might be an improvement over Ayala. At least I'm left handed.

What are you thoughts on Casilla, and any other roster moves we should make as we start the second month of the season?

Liriano, offense show up for the same game

2009-05-05T00:00:00-07:00

I honestly didn't think we had a very good chance to win that game last night. That is until the 7th inning when we slammed the door. The Tigers are built to hit a lot of homers, so a one run lead is basically nothing against them. That is why it was so important we kept hitting the ball and didn't just take that first run of the 7th to the bank.

I thought it was questionable to bring Liriano back out for the 8th. Everyone knew he was going to be pulled if he got into trouble, and our relievers have shown they are worse than normal when coming in with runners on. So why not send Guerrier out there to start the 8th? I guess it doesn't matter since we won the game, but I hope this doesn't become a pattern.

It looks as though Crede and Cuddyer have finally decided to start hitting the ball. Its about time some of those second-class citizen right handers started carrying their weight on this team.

Um, Casilla needs to be smacked around for that play in the first. What in God's name was he thinking? That was a heads up play by Jackson, but Casilla needs to be fined and/or benched for that play. How much longer is Gardy going to use Casilla as the starter at second and bat him second? He has to be close to giving both of those spots to Harris. He is basically a black hole between our 4 best hitters. Can you imagine if we had Harris and his 300 + average batting second everyday? Much better than Casilla and his terrible-ness.

Liriano was good. He was a little sloppy early when issuing 3 walks, but he was able to strike enough guys out to strand those runners. Giving up a homer to Cabrera is not big deal as everyone has done it at some point.

I hope Young takes notes from Crede and Cuddyer and starts to hit the ball consistently. I don't think he is in danger of losing much playing time since Gardy has basically forgotten Gomez exists, so Young will be getting most of the starts in LF for the foreseeable future.

Roster Moves

2009-05-01T00:00:00-07:00

Today the Twins activated Mauer from the 15 day DL and assigned Juan Morillo to Rochester. LEN3 mentions nothing of Morillo having to clear waivers for this move, I was under the impression that he had to.

This is a decent move. If Gardy was willing to let Morillo pitch in blowout games to hone his control, I would say we should have kept him. Since this is not the case, at least he will get a lot of work in down in Rochester with the Cliburns, which never hurt anyone.

All Metrodome Team

2009-05-01T00:00:00-07:00

FSN has been running a promo or something related to an all Metrodome team. This would be comprised of players who played for the Twins while they were in the dome. Bert Blyleven, for example, technically would be eligible, but his best Twins years were pre-1982. So, I will unveil the unofficial firegardy.com Metrodome team. Note: nowhere will you find Nick Punto or Michael Cuddyer. Just sayin.

Starting Pitchers (I'm going to pick three): Johan Santana, Frank Viola, Scott Erickson. The first two are obvious choices as they won CY Young awards with the Twins, and were both pretty dominant. I picked Erickson because he was instrumental in the 91 World Series, he threw a no-hitter at the dome, and sported a sweet mullet.

Catcher: Joe Mauer. He is probably the best catcher the Twins have ever had. He only has played a few years in the Dome, and some might think Brian Harper is a better choice since he won a World Series. Mauer has two batting titles, finished pretty high in MVP voting, has a Gold Glove, and is still only 26.

First Base: Gotta go with Hrbek here. Two championships, and a pretty solid career top to bottom. Good defender at first, great hitter. His career average is 282, his career OPS+ is 128. All very good.

Second Base: Chuck Knoblauch. Rookie of the year, gold glove caliber secondbase (before we traded him), excellent leadoff man. He provided a great spark for that 91 team. Too bad every Twins team he was on sucked, outside of 91 of course.

Thirdbase: Gary Gaetti. The Rat provided power at the hot corner that the Twins have yet to replicate. He had back to back 30 homer years in 86 and 87. One of only two Dome era Twins players to do that, Justin Morneau being the other.

Shortstop: Greg Gagne. While not an huge offensive threat (what shortstop was in this era, Ripken maybe) Gagne was on both World Series teams. He also hit two inside the park homers in one game at the dome in 1986. So that's cool. Gagne left the team on bad terms in 92 when we paid Puckett a huge contract and were unable to afford what Gagne thought he was worth. Oh well, he was a great shortstop to have when we had him.

Outfield: Kirby Puckett, Torii Hunter, Dan Gladden. This is a tougher one. The first two are obvious. For the third you could make a case for several players, including Tom Brunansky, or Shane Mack. As usual, the mullet is the tie-breaker.

Bullpen: (I'm going with two) Rick Aguilera and Jeff Reardon. These are two pretty obvious choices as they were the closers for the 91 and 87 teams. Reardon only played for the Twins for three years, but in those years he had save totals of 31-42-31. He had an ERA+ of 164 in 1988, that is very good. Aguilera stepped in to replace Reardon and the bullpen didn't skip a beat. His ERA+ of 182 in 1991 basically meant if we got to the ninth, we were going to win. From 1990-94 he had save totals of: 32-42-41-34-23. He was then traded to Boston midway through 1995. But came back in 1996 with moderate success. Those teams were pretty bad so it is hard to expect much out of a closer on a terrible team.

I'm going to forego bench players.

As you may have noticed there are a lot of players from good Twins teams. When the Twins were bad, they obviously didn't have many good players. I WANTED to pick Scott Stahoviak and Ron Coomer, but I just couldn't.

What is your "All Dome Team"?

Useless Offday Thoughts: Mauer, Morillo, Jones

2009-04-30T00:00:00-07:00

So here I am, at the time the game normally starts ... and there's no game on. I hate off days. I've decided that I'm going to start an ongoing feature called Useless Offday Thoughts, which ... well, which is exactly what it sounds like. You've already been treated to one, regarding managers and their uniforms. Here's number two.

This is the last day before Joe Mauer's triumphant return to the team. There will certainly be some mistakes made in his use, like batting him third and keeping Casilla at #2 and pushing Kubel out of his natural #4 spot, but at the moment all that nonsense is overridden by the fact that he's returning to the lineup and all is right with the world.

But perhaps the biggest difference will be his work behind the plate -- especially given that Morales has done a great job in the batter's box. I believe the two-headed Redmond/Morales monster has combined to throw out one base stealer, while opposing teams run at will against us. I know Neyer says it doesn't matter, but shutting that down will probably help.

What will help more is that Mauer calls a great game. Everyone says Morales has made big strides in his game-calling abilities, but Mauer is one of (if not the) best. And Baker especially has shown an uncharacteristic inability to make adjustments during the game -- I have a feeling Mauer puts an end to that. We have a team ERA of 5.26 thus far, for an ERA+ of just 84. If that continues, it'd be by far the worst mark in the Gardenhire Era, and I don't think this is a bad pitching staff. (We may have more talent in the rotation from top to bottom than we've had this decade.) If that ERA has dropped significantly a month from now, there will be two culprits:

Mauer is great
Most of the pitchers aren't actually as bad as they've been throwing, and they're bound to regress (in the good way)

Alright ... enough about Mauer from me, until I actually see the guy play. I have a couple other things to say. One is about Morillo:

[Juan] Morillo, 25, has thrown a pregame bullpen session under pitching coach Rick Anderson's watchful eye almost every day. "We are working on my consistency," Morillo said. "I worked on that [before coming to the Twins] but I can see [Anderson] is good at what he does."

I've been harping on the Twins to get Morillo into more games, especially in blowout situations since he can't be trusted yet, so we can evaluate how he looks. Unsurprisingly, Rick Anderson is doing what he can to evaluate Morillo while he teaches him, maybe, how to be a better pitcher.

I don't know if it will work (how often does Anderson actually work any magic on a bad pitcher?), but given Morillo's statement it's possible that Anderson is trying something nobody's tried before. And if whatever previous pitching coaches had tried didn't work, I'm glad something different is happening.

Hopefully Morillo manages to harness his tremendous arm, because I'd much rather have a reliable and accurate Juan Morillo than a Luis Ayala.

My final useless thought for today* is about Andruw Jones. Over the winter, the Dodgers released him and restructured his contract, basically paying him to go away. Any team in baseball could have had him for 2009 at league minimum.

* At least the final one for this post. I'm sure I'll have plenty more useless thoughts before I fall asleep tonight. You won't be subjected to them though.

I never seriously considered the possibility of Jones in a Twins uniform for two reasons.

We had enough outfielders
Jones had really sucked in 2008, and wasn't much of a player in 2007 either

Still, I was silently curious about what he could do, and thought it'd be amusing if we replaced Torii Hunter with the one CF in the majors who could realistically challenge him for the title of Best Center Fielder In Baseball when they were both younger. And I figured he had a higher upside than Cuddyer, would be more likely to reach his upside than Young, and is a hitter in a way that Gomez simply isn't.

I don't know who would have had to go down to make room for Andruw Jones, and obviously hindsight is 20/20 ... and it's just a small sample size. But he's really hitting. Look at these numbers:

Carlos Gomez: .195/.250/.293 0 HR, 1 RBI, 46 OPS+ Delmon Young: .241/.276/.315 1 HR, 9 RBI, 59 OPS+ Michael Cuddyer: .224/.318/.316 1 HR, 7 RBI, 72 OPS+ Andruw Jones: .345/.513/.724 3 HR, 5 RBI, 220 OPS+

Tell me Jones' numbers wouldn't look pretty great between Morneau and Kubel. And given that he spent 10 years as arguably the best defensive CF in the game, I'd say his defense in the corner outfield would be pretty good. No doubt better than Delmon Young's.

Obviously we can't go back and time and make this happen. And if we could, he wouldn't have hit like this for the Twins -- people hit like that for the Rangers, not for the Twins.* But it's fun.

* I've talked in the past about how we gave up more to get Delmon Young than the Rangers gave up to get Josh Hamilton or the White Sox gave up to get Carlos Quentin. While it seems like we should be disappointed in our take, my guess is that if we'd got Hamilton or Quentin they wouldn't be hitting for us, and Delmon would be clobbering the ball for either the Rangers or White Sox. That's how our hitting coaches work.

Just something to think about when Bill Smith isn't making crazy moves. You know, in case he does something crazy again after getting wiped out by the first two big moves he made.

Month End Update

2009-04-30T00:00:00-07:00

The Twins have reached our goal (and by extension their) of finishin April at 500. This was challenging for three main reasons:

1) No Joe Mauer

2) We were one of two AL teams who faced all four of the 2008 playoff teams (White Sox, Rays, Red Sox, Angels)

3) We played against some teams who were really hot in April, but will fade back this summer (Toronto, Seattle)

So doing these things without Mauer is pretty impressive. Baker and Liriano have both gotten off to terrible starts,Baker in particular, so you can probably add that to the above list. If Mauer comes out swining, and Baker and Liriano revert to the pitchers we know they can be, we might be OK for this season. The key to this amazing 11-11 start has been the performance of Perkins, Span, Morneau and Kubel. Those four have really carried us. Note: They are all lefties, I am a lefty, thus I am awesome.

We face Sidney Ponson tonight, I'm assuming Mauer will be catching, and we get to miss Zach Grienke. All of these are good things. Hopefully Mauer can catch two of the games, but I'm not sure how that will look. It appears as if Kubel is entrenched in the DH spot, which is another good thing. This means that when Mauer rests, he will really be resting, not DHing.

A few thoughts on the last nights game. Blackburn looked excellent. He walked just one guy, got a lot of first pitch strikes (24 of 30 I believe), and induced many ground outs.

Who else thinks that Casilla has to be on a pretty short leash at this point? The way Harris is hitting the ball makes it tough to keep him out of the lineup more often than not. While Casilla is a better defender, and its nice to have the versatile Harris on the bench, we should have our nine best hitters in the lineup. At this point that includes Harris. If Casilla must start, he should not be batting second. Can you imagine if we had Span-Mauer-Morneau-Kubel. Our four best hitters in a row. I don't care if the are all lefties. Casilla is going to be batting left handed most of the time anyway, but having our 4 best hitters in a row is better than any stupid R-L-R lineup construction anyday.

I've also been reading that the Twins might place Redmond on the DL retro-active to Sunday, thus delaying any roster decision for about 10 days. This is probably a good move, as Redmond probably has nagging injuries. If Gardy plans on easing Mauer into things, the backup catcher will be playing a lot more than normal for the next few weeks, and it might be best if Morales is getting those at bats over Redmond.

Here's to a winning May. I will be in attendance tomorrow and I hope Mauer gets at least 3 hits off Ponson.

RISP and offensive woes

2009-04-29T00:00:00-07:00

Last season the Twins hot a major league best 305 with runners in scoring position. We discussed this many times in this space. Was it sustainable? Was it luck? Some argued that it could be repeated, while many argued that it could not. You always regress to the mean, so there was a lot of room to fall from that 305 mark. The Twins are proving that this year. Through 20 games they are hitting 265 with runners in scoring position. In the Twins last two loses (Sunday and Monday) the team was 1-18 w/RISP. That is unbelievably bad. When I saw the 265 number, I though that was too high. It seems as if we are hitting much worse than that. As an entire team we aren't doing so hot at the plate. Our right handed batters in particular. While I think we will eventually bring that average w/RISP up, I don't think we will hit nearly as well as we did in 2008. Can you imagine if Morneau and Kubel didn't start the year so hot? We would probably be sitting at 5-16 instead 10-11. Yes, the math is right.

Now, you can say "but we are doing all of this without Joe Mauer, we just need to tread water". Do you really think inserting Mauer into the lineup will make Cuddyer not be terrible? I for one do not. I think it will help, but when Mauer is sitting on the bench (after doing something awesome, no doubt), Cuddyer will probably still be prone to strike out. This brings me to my next point: Cuddyer isn't good enough to be an everyday player. He simply doesn't have the track record that people claim he does. That throw he made to the plate yesterday had a better chance of hitting me in the face, than getting the runner out (no seriously, I was sitting first row behind the plate, no big deal). I think it is better for the team to get our young outfielders (Young, Gomez) at bats than it is to stroke Cuddyer's ego by letting him play everyday.

Next point: Who goes down when Mauer comes back? Conventional wisdom says Morales. But with the way Gardy has been using Gomez, I say send him down. I mean he has been nothing more than a defensive replacement for the past week or so. He should have been in the minors most of last year. The arguments for sending Gomez down are a lot stronger than sending Morales down. While I don't advocate carrying three catchers, Morales has been hitting lately, and if Mauer needs to be eased back into the lineup it will be nice to have him for those first few weeks.

When Crain comes back I think the best idea is to try to get Morillo through waivers. He would be a nice project, but isn't worth a major league roster spot at this point. Yes, 97 MPH fastballs are cool, but not when they have your recently back from the DL catcher running all over the place trying to keep runners from advancing.

Does anyone else think that the shift Maddon used last night turned out to be a bad idea? I've never like those shifts, because I think having five infielders creates a "too many cooks in the kitchen" problem. Especially when you put a backup right fielder in charge of helping turn a DP. I guess hindsight is always 20-20.

Also, if we win tonight (knock on wood) we will be 11-11 without Mauer. I believe that was the collective firegardy.com goal. Even 10-12 isn't terrible without our best player.

So feel free to leave your hopeless defense-of-Cuddyer arguments in the comments section. Or suggestions as to how Gardy and co. should handle the roster in the next few weeks.

Can you get both a win and a save in the same game?

2009-04-29T00:00:00-07:00

Alright guys, this one has nothing to do with the Twins, but bear with me. I've got a crazy question here, and I want everyone's thoughs.

First, to the MLB rulebook, for Rule 10.17(b):

(b) If the pitcher whose team assumes a lead while such pitcher is in the game, or during the inning on offense in which such pitcher is removed from the game, and does not relinquish such lead, is a starting pitcher who has not completed (1) five innings of a game that lasts six or more innings on defense, or (2) four innings of a game that lasts five innings on defense, then the official scorer shall credit as the winning pitcher the relief pitcher, if there is only one relief pitcher, or the relief pitcher who, in the official scorer's judgment was the most effective, if there is more than one relief pitcher.

Next, note that the judgment call part of the rule was actually exercised this week.

Now, the scorer has to use his best judgment to determine which relief pitcher was the most effective, not just which one came in first.

Imagine the following scenario:

Pitcher gets knocked out of the game before finishing the 5th inning, and has a 5-0 lead when he leaves (say it's an injury).

The team rolls out one relief pitcher per inning, who each give up a single run in the 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th innings. The team now has a 5-4 lead coming into the 9th, and they bring in their closer. He strikes out the side. (He clearly was the most effective relief pitcher in this obviously contrived scenario.)

Here's my question: Is the closer rewarded with both a win and a save?

Will Mauer's Return Make a Difference?

2009-04-28T00:00:00-07:00

The only thing I have to say about last night's game is this:

If your catcher records a passed ball on a pitchout that allows a runner who wasn't going to steal to advance a base, you know your team's going bad.

Anyhow, with that catching mishap and the imminent return of Mauer, Rob Neyer has decided to start pointing out that he's really not all that important to the Twins.

First, he looks into the effects of a noodle arm behind the plate, pointing out that it doesn't matter at all if the catcher throws out every runner who attempts to steal, or throws out none of them. Quoting famed Twins-hater Dave Cameron:

Last season, the Philadelphia Phillies only caught 24% of basestealers on their way to celebrating their first World Series title in 28 years. In 2008, 11 teams were able to throw out at least 30% of base stealers, but only one of those teams made the playoffs, and that team, the Milwaukee Brewers, lost in the first round.

Neyer then says:

One, few teams run enough to make a big dent in the all-important runs columns. As Cameron notes, what matters most is the number of baserunners, not what they do (under their own power) once they're on.

But obviously if the catcher simply can't throw runners out, then teams will run more against you. While it's certainly better to just keep runners off base entirely, a catcher who allows a lot of steals just exacerbates the problem.

What does that have to do with Mauer and the Twins, you ask? Well, Mauer controls the running game better than any catcher in baseball, and Morales/Redmond can't throw anybody out. Neyer's just setting himself up for his "It won't matter when Mauer comes back, the Twins still suck" argument.

Which, of course, he makes in his very next post:

Once again we're reminded of how little difference the loss of one player, however great, can make. Mauer's replacements could have been awful or they could have been just OK, but instead they were actually pretty good. No, a .759 OPS isn't anything special, but it's pretty darned good for catchers. I'll bet that Mauer's had months that weren't as good. Shoot, I'll go ahead and check ... Yep. Mauer wasn't as good last April as his replacements this April. He wasn't as good in June or August of '08, either.

Sure, players have up and down months. So Morales is a reasonably good hitting catcher and is having a good month, and it's possible to cherry-pick some months from Mauer's sterling record that look worse, based solely on OPS? Clearly that means the Twins shouldn't be that excited to get Mauer back, and he's not going to make any difference. One player doesn't make any difference, and replacing an annual-MVP-candidate/two-time-batting-champion/gold-glove-catcher with a minor leaguer will result in the same overall results. If you're the Twins. If the Red Sox or Yankees did that, the sky would fall so fast you wouldn't know what hit you.

But the real reason for the Twins' good position isn't Mauer's replacements or Mauer's return; it's the abject weakness of the Twins' division. With the exception of the Tigers -- who are not exactly worry-free -- no team in the American League Central looks like even a decent bet to finish above .500.

So yes, it does all come down to this. Some more AL Central bashing, from someone who thinks that only the Tigers have a reasonable chance to finish above .500 ... I don't know exactly why he thinks that,* but I've got the Tigers as the worst team in the division, and the one most likely to finish below .500. And that's just looking at the talent they have on the field, not taking into account the inevitable injuries they'll suffer with their elderly team, and the fact that their minor league system is so devoid of talent that they'll be unable to replace anyone who goes down.

* But I assume it's because they have the highest payroll.

Once again, my message is to not listen to Neyer, who takes his hate-the-Twins-without-thinking-about-it straight from Cameron.

Of course, that's a tough sell after yet another piss-poor performance. But in baseball, each individual game means nothing; put them all together and they mean everything. We just have to come out tonight and play well, and we'll soon forget about this bad game. And we still get to look forward to getting Mauer back.

And my guess is that his presence will make a difference.

Slowey's Gem, Bad Decisions

2009-04-26T00:00:00-07:00

Last night Slowey through an absolute gem: 8+ IP, 7K, 0BB, 1 ER.

He was basically dominant the entire time, and only had one AB in the first 8 innings where he was in trouble, when he got to a 2-0 count on Shin Soo Choo with Travis Hafner on second base. It was his only 2-0 count of the night. He worked it to a 3-1 count, against a power hitting lefty who's been swinging well; he threw a change up and got Choo to fly out.

[Joe C] asked Slowey how common it is for him to throw 3-1 change-ups. He said it was the right pitch for “a power-hitting lefty who swings very well. It’s something I need to continue to work on, to throw a pitch like that in a count like that.”

Kevin Slowey is a smart guy.

But I have one thing to complain about in that pitching performance. With a 7-0 lead going into the ninth inning, and your starter has already thrown over 100 pitches, and is just 25 years old, and the entire bullpen is rested after two off days and a rainout in the last week, along with a dominant start the previous night ... there's no reason to have the starter go for the complete game.

So what did Gardy have to say for himself?

"After an easy eighth, you have to let him take a shot at it," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said of the shutout. "We said we are going to stretch these guys out. I think it had been seven days since his last start, and he's got six days before his next one. It's an opportune time to let these guys stretch out if they can do that. ... It didn't work out, they rolled some balls through and got some hits. But you want these guys to understand that we are not afraid to do that."

Don't get me wrong. I want to see our pitchers start getting more complete game shutouts. But I don't want them starting any innings once they're over 100 pitches. And when the bullpen is rested, they can be used.

Especially since we have one Juan Morillo, who has the arm to be a setup man, but can't be trusted. In his two outings for us, he's looked fantastic in one and truly awful in another. We're working on the guy, trying to rebuild him ... and we need to figure out who he is soon, because he might be the guy to go once Crain returns. I don't want us making that decision based on too little information.

That the move didn't work out as planned isn't my issue. My issue is that it was the wrong decision from a baseball standpoint. It was made in an effort to generate a meaningless statistic for Slowey (CG SHO) that at best shows how macho he (and his manager) is. The problem is that it prevented the possibility of generating meaningful statistics for Morillo, who needs more outings and can't be trusted in a close game at the moment.

Oh, and while Ayala looked good in only allowing one run with the bases loaded and nobody out ... what does it say about how much Gardy trusts him that Nathan was warming up before that inning ending double play?

I think it says a lot.

Twins Hitting Philosophy's Effect on Opposing Team Defense

2009-04-25T00:00:00-07:00

I've often joked that the best cure for a struggling team is to face the Twins. Team-wide slump? When you're done with us you'll all be on fire. Bullpen wrecked up and overused? We'll give your starters a couple of complete games and you'll be good to go. Obviously, though, this "fix the opponent's problems" thing is not some sort of deliberate strategy. And maybe it's random, and this happens to all teams.* So I'm wondering why it happens.

* But since this is the bloggingest blog of blogs, we're just going to go ahead and assume that a general feeling I have is true and go from there. I don't see any problem with it.

I want to focus, right now, on team defense. I know our pitchers have been getting lit up and every offense we face looks like the '27 Yankees, but what's more interesting than more "What's wrong with Baker and Liriano?" / "Well it's early, let's not panic" discussions is why teams seem to fare better in the field against us than they do normally.

We opened the season against the Mariners, and in a four game split their outfield defense shined even brighter than everyone had expected. Their entire defense was +10 runs in just 4 games, or something absurd like that, and if they kept up that pace for the whole season they'd set the record for the best defense of all time; naturally, they have since come crashing back down to earth and their defense is doing about as well as expected.

** Hey, pictures! I figured I'd look for pictures of the guys who made good plays against the Twins in these series. ESPN had five full pages of pictures of the Red Sox / Twins game, but less than one page of the Mariners / Twins matchup. And they didn't have anything of Franklin Gutierrez or Endy Chavez, who were the guys who won those games! Sad.

This week in Boston, we got clobbered in a doubleheader. But in the second game, we were touching up the pitcher and smacking the ball all over the field; it just so happened that their defense caught fire when we did it. Six lineouts on rocket shots, two of which turned into double plays. Ellsbury tracked down long fly balls in center. Teams don't usually play defense like that,* so what got into the Red Sox that day?

* There's a reason 70+% of line drives end up as hits, and it's because teams don't usually play defense like that.

I'm going to go ahead and throw out the idea that teams somehow "try harder" against the Twins. It doesn't make sense, and can't be verified either way.

So what's going on?

When I was a kid, and trying unsuccessfully to be a pitcher, my dad always told me that the most important thing was to throw strikes, to pitch to contact, to get the ball in play -- the reason for this was that at that level, lots of walks and strikeouts lead to boring games and that's not good for anyone. In order to keep the kids on my team involved, plenty of balls in play were in order. My ability to throw a ball slowly, accurately, and without movement meant I was a master of getting kids to hit the ball. It gave my fielders a lot of work to do, but ultimately wasn't that good for my performance as a pitcher.*

* Although I did get to "good hit" to everyone on the other team as we were shaking hands after the game. For what that's worth.

Since baseball players are famously trapped in an adolescent mental and emotional state, and they all apparently also have ADD, it doesn't seem unreasonable to think that similar effects may be in play. Especially given that major league teams don't even take fielding practice any more.

This, then, comes back to the Twins' organizational hitting philosophy. As a team, the Twins put the ball into play early in the count, and rarely walk or strike out. That keeps the game moving quickly, and it increases the team's batting average at the expense of OBP and slugging. But it also keeps the opposing starter's pitch count low, and it keeps opposing fielders in the game such that they're more primed to make plays.*

* One of the things I often accuse the Red Sox of is dragging the games out so long that by the 7th inning, the other team is bored and just wants to go home, allowing the Red Sox to pull out wins at the end of the game when the other team is mentally out of it. It's like that kid who was a dick head on the field, and when you were fed up with him and left, he danced around in "victory." I am positive that Kevin Youkilis was that kid.

I like the fact that the Twins play fast games, and I think putting the ball in play is a more exciting way to play baseball. However, I was already apprehensive about the tradeoff, given the decrease in walks and extra base hits that come along with this strategy. If another tradeoff is that the opposing defense actually performs better because of it, it seems to me that it's about time to consider changing the ball-in-play philosophy.

What are your thoughts? Am I off base here? Or might there be something to the concept that hitting the ball early in the count and limiting walks and strike outs can keep the defense on its toes?

Managing 101

2009-04-25T00:00:00-07:00

We all know that Gardy's a smart guy, and gives some brilliant quotes when asked nicely. I think he just topped himself, though.

"He's got to unstink because it's not mechanical. OK? There you have it. That's managing 101."

That's managing 101? I mean, I never took that class, but I imagine that "he's got to unstink" isn't part of it.

He was talking about Baker and his early struggles. He's given up 7 homers in his first two starts, which ties him for the most given up in the first start of the season, ever.

At some point those balls are going to stop leaving the park,* but Baker's going to have to make the necessary adjustments: keep the ball down, and stop leaving fat ones middle up.

* Also, at some point, Blyleven is going to have to admit that Baker is a homer-prone pitcher. No other pitcher has given up more home runs in his first two starts of the season, in the history of baseball. He gave up 20 HR in 28 games last year. This is simply a lot of home runs.

But at least we have Gardy there to not do anything about it.

BP: Twins are the Second Worst Team in Baseball

2009-04-25T00:00:00-07:00

Yesterday, Baseball Prospectus came out with their latest Hit List, which comes out every week and supposedly ranks all 30 teams in order of their current talent/performance, rather than simply by record.

I say "supposedly," because over the years I've been looking at this Hit List there has seemed to be an AL Central Penalty, and an even larger Minnesota Twins Penalty. They've apparently decided to pull out all the stops in their anti-Twins effort, as here are the Hit List rankings for the five AL Central teams:

#7: Tigers #8: Royals #13: White Sox #16: Indians

I'd quibble with putting the Tigers in the top 10 at all, and certainly not ahead of the Royals right now. But for a division that was expected by everyone to be "completely and utterly terrible" (despite the fact that based on actually winning games it's been the 2nd or 3rd best division in baseball for years), these rankings are pretty good. Nobody will notice, of course.

Oh, you're wondering why I only listed four teams? Because of this:

#29: Minnesota Twins

That's right, they've got the Twins ranked at 29th best in the league, just ahead of the hapless Natinals. Now, I understand that they haven't been playing well, and the top of the rotation is struggling, and the offense hasn't clicked yet, and there's no replacing Joe Mauer, and BP just saw them lose two games to The Only Baseball Team That Matters ... but second-worst-in-the-league seems pretty unreasonable.

Oh, and it is amusing that "the top of their rotation is a mess but the back end isn't" is used as a positive for Detroit and a negative for Minnesota.

I'd say that "winning games is the only way to change their minds," but given their history it's pretty clear that that won't work. The only fix for this is to ignore it.

And I don't think I can do that.

Trying to be Optimistic

2009-04-23T00:00:00-07:00

It was a rough day in Boston, and that really leads to it being a rough week, given how the games fell out. Off day, rainout, double header, off day. When the double header consists of a pair of demoralizing blowout losses, it's just not a fun week.

I was really frustrated watching those games yesterday, and didn't think I'd have anything to say about it.

You know how when the team is going well you can't help but think that "This team is awesome" and you're on top of the world, and when they look bad you shout "These guys suck! They have no chance" and want to put a fist through your screen? Well, I felt the latter for most of yesterday. But I don't think I want to be overwhelmed by such rollercoaster feelings, so I gave it some time. Hopefully that was for the best.

I was wrong, though. I do have something to say about it. While the offense looked totally flummoxed against Wakefield in the early afternoon, they woke up in the evening against Penny. It doesn't show up in the box score, obviously, but our hitters were tagging the ball, lining it all over the field. Six times a solid line drive landed in a glove, including two lineout double plays. Young put one on the warning track in front of the "420" sign in center, and Ellsbury managed to chase it down. Kubel put two to the track out there in center; Ellsbury got to one and the other became a ground rule double. Morneau, in addition to the homer he absolutely clobbered to straightaway center, bounced another one off the wall that would have been long gone almost everywhere else. The point is that the offense didn't look bad in the evening game, and if you keep swinging the bat like that, eventually the hits are going to fall in. Luck happens, but it's not bad forever.

Ultimately it doesn't matter if the offense is showing signs of starting to look good, if the starting pitching puts you deep in a hole early in the game. Both Baker and Liriano looked bad, again, and if we're going to be any good this year we're going to be leaning really heavily on those two.

But look at it this way: we're 7-9 overall, and we're 0-6 in games started by the top two guys on our staff. That makes us 7-3 when the bottom half of the rotation goes, and most teams would eagerly take that winning percentage from the bottom half of the rotation. I don't think anything is physically wrong with either Baker or Liriano, they just have to concentrate, hit their spots, be more consistent, make their adjustments, whatever it is pitchers do. Once they turn it around, we'll be in good position to make a nice little run.

Hell, what team wouldn't take a .700 winning percentage from the entire staff? That's 113 wins.

So, while everything looks bleak for the Twins right now, it's not all bad. Baker and Liriano won't be facing the Indians in this important series this weekend, and they have a little time to get their heads straightened out.

And soon, Mauer will be back. I hear he's swinging well down in Fort Myers.

Posted via email from sirsean.posterous

Franchise Values

2009-04-23T00:00:00-07:00

Let's not talk about yesterday.

This week Forbes published its annual baseball franchise valuations. The Twins ranked 22nd on the list with a value of $356 million. This doesn't include any potential revenue from the new stadium because, as we have seen with the new Yankee stadium, you can't assume all your new high price seats will get sold.

The Pohlad family bought the team in 1984 for 44 million, that is a pretty tidy return. Not quite as good as the Yankees, Steinbrennerbought them for around 10 million in the early 70s, but still good. One of the points I found interesting is that Carl spent 63% of revenue on player salaries over the last five years, that is significantly higher than the 57% that is the league average. Guess he wasn't such a cheapskate was he? He did run the team like a business, but who are we to tell him how to spend his personal fortune.

The Twins 2008 wins to player cost ratio was 133. That means we got 33% more wins per dollar than the league average. In this formula postseason wins count double. That can't come as much of a surprise to anyone, as we have discussed the Twins payroll efficiency in this space before.

The Twins have seen a dramatic increase in both value and revenue since 2000. This is also to be expected, as franchise values overall have increased steadily over that time. Also, the Twins have been much for successful on the field in this decade than they were in the 90s, thus more people are wont to buy tickets, jerseys, etc.

The Twins get roughly 45% of their value from "sport", which is defined as "portion of the franchise's value attributable to revenue shared among all teams". This also can't come as a shock, as the have always been one of the biggest benefactors of revenue sharing.

Does anything else stand out? Nothing really groundbreaking here, I just wanted to write about something unrelated to the Twins terrible play yesterday. One comment: I am now more convinced than ever that I could homer off of Scott Baker. He needs to figure his shit out. Quick.

Game 1 Preview

2009-04-22T00:00:00-07:00

The Twins and Red Sox will hopefully get at least one of the two scheduled games in today. The weather in Boston is dicey, but it looks like it will be OK for the first game.

We are facing Tim Wakefield, and that got me to thinking about knuckleballs and knuckleballers. Will the addition of RA Dickey this season perhaps help the Twins hitters in their approach to facing a knuckleball? Maybe having him around to throw batting practice or something will help. However, the reason the knuckleball is effective is because of its unpredictability. A hitter could see a BP knuckler hundreds of times, and it really won't help them in a game situation. Especially since I'm sure the pitch varies from pitcher to pitcher more than a traditional pitch.

Hopefully the wind isn't too strong in Fenway this afternoon. I would hate to see Baker break some sort of record for most homers given up in the first two starts. Because he has to be somewhat close.

The Red Sox bats are starting to wake up, which is another reason to be very nervous about this game. Hopefully I am wrong and Baker rights this ship with an impressive showing, and the bats tee off on wakefield and his knuckleball.

Useless Offday Thoughts: Why Do Managers Wear Uniforms?

2009-04-21T00:00:00-07:00

For some reason, I feel like bringing up something useless and petty*. This is what happens when the season starts and I go without watching a baseball game for over 24 hours. Watch out people.

* Seriously, what do you expect from me? If you want the news, listen to FunBobby. Something about Humber sucking happened recently, I think.

Managers wearing uniforms. Why do they do it? It's difficult for anyone to look good in a baseball uniform (I think baseball started before the word "style" was invented), but it's virtually impossible for a middle-aged former athlete with a beer gut and a sunburn to pull off the look. And it's not like these guys need to be wearing the uniform, it's not like they're going to go pinch run for one of the players.

Rule 1.11(a) says that all members of a team must wear a uniform. The manager is not a member of the team. Just like anyone else at the stadium who isn't a player, he may where a uniform, but he is not required to.

According to an informal look by researchers at the National Baseball Hall of Fame, it's believed that the last manager to wear a suit was Burt Shotton of the Brooklyn Dodgers, who last managed a game in 1950.

So no suits in the last 60 years. But that doesn't say anything about non-uniformed managers, wearing jeans and a polo shirt, or whatever they might find fashionable or comfortable that day.

You might be wondering, as I was, about Gardy's take on this. It is utterly unsurprising that he's a fan of the uniform*, but his response to why he wears it during games: "I hate sport coats."

* We're talking about a former slap-hitting middle infielder who could "play" multiple positions who values nothing more than slap-hitting middle/utility infielders. Is it obvious to anyone else that he's clinging to the past a little bit?

Fair enough, Gardy. But nobody said that was the only other option.

Frankly, I think it's past time managers give up their traditional clinging-to-their-younger-days-by-wearing-the-garb-of-a-20-year-old, just like other people their age, and dress more appropriately. If I may make one stipulation, though, I am not interested in seeing any of these guys wearing shorts.

Rainy Day Thoughts: Setup Man Philosophy?

2009-04-21T00:00:00-07:00

While the Twins game continues to not start because for some reason Fenway doesn't have a retractable roof, I figured I'd do some writing about the bullpen situation given Crain's injury. Intelligent reader thrylos98 had this to say:

Crain did get overused so far this season. It was inexcusable for Gardy to put him in the 9th inning to close a blow out game. That is done, it cannot be corrected, but I hope that Gardenhire realizes his mistake and does not repeat it. Speaking of repeating mistakes, when Gardenhire was asked about who the set up man will be now, he answered that everyone who is rested except Morillo who is still "a project". Wrong answer. He should select one (even pull names off a a hat) and go with him. The worse thing about a reliever is not knowing what his role is. Pitchers need to get ready to pitch.

I agree that Crain was overused and absolutely shouldn't have been pitching in blowouts. (Though I seem to recall that none of the other relievers could get anyone out, so we kind of needed to go with Crain.)

But I absolutely don't agree that Gardy's "anyone who's rested will be the setup man" is the wrong answer. Picking roles and leaning too heavily on a single go-to reliever is exactly what re-injured Crain (and put him on the surgeon's table the first time), what wrecked Guerrier, and what killed Neshek. Many managers have this problem, and Gardy's no exception.* Joe Torre is famous for doing this to his favorite reliever.

* Joe Maddon, apparently, is an exception, given that he named his third or fourth best reliever the "closer" and went with his good relievers in higher leverage situations that warranted it. Point is, more thought is needed, but it seems that breaking down bullpen roles could be a good thing.

My hope is that the relievers are able to step up and keep us in games for Nathan to close them out, and that this experience helps Gardy with his bullpen management in the future. If he can actually use whichever reliever is most rested (and most able to get outs), rather than finding another guy to lean on and destroy, it would unequivocally be a good thing.

My other hope is that it stops raining in Boston so we can get on the field soon.

Humber clears waivers

2009-04-21T00:00:00-07:00

Phil Humber has cleared waivers and will be sent to AAA Rochester to rejoin the starting rotation. I don't think anyone really cares that this happened. So we get to keep Humber, it is widely agreed that he might have been the most replaceable player on the roster. I guess its not a terrible thing, he might be able to help Rochester win some games. It also allows us to keep one of the pieces of the Santana trade, so in the off chance Humber turns out to be OK, we look a little better. I think the fact that nobody wanted a young(ish) starting pitcher is kind of a testament to just how useless Humber is at this point. The fact that not even the Nationals (Natinals?) wanted him has to hurt the confidence. Oh well. That's all the news after an off day.

That and Mauer played in a simulated game yesterday and was 1-3 with a double and a walk. He will play in a single-A game on Friday. Lets hope he is back by month end. As reader MarkW (and Gleeman on his fancy new national blog) pointed out, if the Twins can be around .500 when Mauer comes back they will be in pretty good shape for the summer and fall.

Go Twins!

Great weekend

2009-04-20T00:00:00-07:00

The Twins had an excellent weekend against the Angels. This series had a little bit of everything. A thrilling come from behind win (Friday) a blowout (Saturday), and a close-ish game (Sunday).

During the game on Friday, our terrible bullpen was on display. As they were giving up a parade of hits to the Angels, I was about ready to give up on the team. They seemed unable to do anything right or good. Then came Jason Kubel. Even before the grand slam, he had put together a pretty good game, which was overshadowed by our terrible bullpen. You know how it ended, so I will spare you.

I attended the game on Saturday and it was pretty ho-hum. Kevin Slowey made one mistake, a two run homer to Hunter. The Twins actually trailed until the 5th inning when they took the lead for good. It would be nice to see them take the first lead of the game and hold it wire to wire, but I'll take what I can get.

Sunday brought another superb pitching performance from Perkins not only did he shutdown the Angels, but he took a comebacker off the leg and walked it off. What a badass.

I hope nobody missed the good parts of the game on friday, if you did you better have been doing something really awesome. Skydiving is one acceptable excuse. Something involving supermodels is OK too.

Crain down, Mijares up.

2009-04-20T00:00:00-07:00

Jesse Crain has been placed on the DL with shoulder stiffness, LEN3 reports. It is apparently minor, and hopefully he will be good to go in about 10 days time. In the meantime, the Twins have called up Jose Mijares. After an awful spring, he has put together a nice start in Rochester. He is currently on a 6.1 scoreless innings stretch. I'm not sure who will slide into the 8th inning role, but the top choices have to be Guerrier or Breslow. I am not basing that on anything other than those are the two guys Gardy probably trusts the most. Hopefully we see Nathan used a little bit more, but that usually doesn't happen this early in the season.

I like what I have seen out of Morillo, although from the scouting reports it sounds like he will have trouble throwing strikes consistently, so its best if he is used in low leverage situations. This is a blow to the Twins already weak bullpen. Hopefully Mijares can step it up and be useful in his (hopefully) short stint in the majors.

The list of people I don't trust out of the bullpen has grown to include the following:

Ayala, Dickey, Morillo, Mijares, Guerrier, Breslow. So everyone but Nathan is what I'm trying to say.

When Exactly Did Span's Eye Surgery Kick In?

2009-04-17T00:00:00-07:00

One of the things that came up this offseason that I seem to care about a lot more than everyone else is the concept of performance enhancing surgeries -- especially eye surgery for hitters. I'm not going to talk about ethical implications here, so don't worry about that. Just keep reading.

Prior to 2008, Denard Span had never been much of a hitter. The team talked about him like he was supposed to eventually replace Torii Hunter, but privately they must not have believed it. Even the notoriously anti-stats Twins front office realized that Span simply could not hit. In the previous three seasons, at AA and AAA, his OPS never cracked .700, and was declining each year. He was the target of derisive jokes all over the blogosphere ... and in the winter after the 2007 season, after Torii Hunter left, the Twins traded for three new outfielders, two of whom were expected to start immediately. One of those was Carlos Gomez, the brand spanking new Center Fielder Of The Future. Denard Span was out.

But little did we know, while all this was happening, Span had had laser eye surgery to improve his vision. Nobody knew what kind of difference it would make.

During (meaningless) Spring Training, Span outperformed Gomez. But that was even more meaningless than it normally would have been in Spring Training, because the "competition" for spots in the outfield was a farce from the beginning; Cuddyer was the incumbent star sitting on a big new contract, Young was the shiny new slugger who was in the running for Rookie of the Year, and Gomez was the shiny new speedster who had to play so the Santana trade didn't look like a bad idea to the shortsighted "fans" who have recently discovered the internet and therefore cannot resist leaving disparaging comments about the team wherever there's a textarea offering them the opportunity to spew some actively anti-grammatical, "typo"-laced rant that are useless to read, but you just can't look away. Much like a trainwreck, but with more capital letters and broken logic. I'm sure the Twins have read some of this drivel, and the more thin-skinned among them reacted by crowning Gomez the starting center fielder before Spring Training 2008 even began.

But this isn't really a story about Denard Span. It's a story about eye surgery. At this point, it remained unclear if the surgery was affecting him, though he claimed he could see the ball better than ever.

Of course, never listen to a guy who just made it up to the majors; he'll say anything to stay there. (As well he should.) What you should do is look at his production. And in April of 2008, Span's numbers looked like this:

.258/.324/.258, with 0 XBH. And an unsustainably high .320 BABIP.

In other words, bad. Bad enough to get sent back down to the minors, presumably forever, his prospecthood finally destroyed. There was more deriding of Span around the internet.

But then ... something clicked. Back at AAA, Span started hitting. He hit .340/.434/.481, in his 40 games in Rochester. Then Cuddyer injured himself tripping on the ground or diving into a base (or something equally "intelligent"), and Span found himself back in the majors. And everyone knows the rest of this story. He hit all season. He was one of the best hitters on the team, to go with his nightly Web Gem in right field. Span was here to stay.

But what happened at the end of April, or the beginning of May, when he finally started hitting? Was it that he was angry about being sent down, and thus turned the corner that had eluded him for his entire career to this point? Or is that just the sort of thing that managers and players and writers come up with because they don't know what's going on? I don't know. But it's also possible that something happened with his eyes, in the first couple months after he started playing again, post-surgery.*

* I know the surgery is supposed to improve your eyes instantly. But that doesn't mean you're used to it, and can hit a baseball like you're accustomed to. Maybe it took Span a month or so to get used to it and start actually seeing the ball well.

And that brings me to what I really wanted to talk about. (That didn't take long, now did it?) Since the beginning of the season, I've been complaining that it looked like our players are having trouble seeing the ball, especially Morneau, Cuddyer, and Casilla. Now, Casilla has no excuse; he just looks awful and needs to pull his head out.

On the other hand, Morneau and Cuddyer both had laser eye surgery this winter, on the recommendation of Span and with the approval of the team doctors. Is it possible that they're just getting used to their new eyes at game-speed, which is why they look blind out there?

Now, a performance-based analysis of Morneau would probably say "What, are you nuts? He's seeing the ball great!" Because he's hitting .341/.348/.569, with 2HR and 4 2B. But he's only had 1 BB, and 9 K, and I've seen his at bats, so the performance-based analysis can shove it. Morneau is struggling.

Of course, said analysis can un-shove it when it comes to Cuddyer. Watching his at bats, he looks even worse than Morneau. And his numbers go something like this: .238/.283/.357 with 1 HR, 2 2B, 3 BB, and 10 K. Yes, he has struck out ten times in 11 games. Not at all good for someone who doesn't hit home runs.

Now, maybe I'm just grasping at straws here, while the Twins flail around and suck like it's going out of style.* But it's still possible that Morneau and Cuddyer take a Span-like jump forward at the plate and go to a new level of offensive performance that we haven't seen from them before. And it's possible that it happens at the same time that Span's did: right around the end of April.

* You know what I think is amusing? That the phrase "[blank] like it's going out of style" has, itself, gone out of style. Thus I am going to start using that phrase, as if it were going out of style. Follow me?

And it's also possible that when it happens, the eyes don't get the credit. Because that's right around when Mauer's going to come back and save our season.

Just remember that I brought this up when Mauer returns and all of a sudden the middle of the order is smashing the ball again. It might not all be Mauer.

Casilla the next Kirby?

2009-04-17T00:00:00-07:00

Before I went to last nights Twins "game", I attended a cocktail party for a committee I'm on at a high end jewelry store. As I was waiting for my friends to arrive an employee noticed the Twins tickets in my pocket and asked me if I was attending the game, I told her I was. She then proceeded to tell me that "Lexi" (I'm assuming she was talking about Casilla. Did she think she was cool by throwing a nickname at me?) had been in the store earlier that day. She said we were going to win because she rubbed his hand for good luck. Creepy. I asked if he had made a purchase, and she told me it was confidential. What? How is whether or not Casilla bought a watch confidential information. Get off your high horse, jewelry store employee. Selling high end watches doesn't make you better than me. She then went on and on about how great Casilla is. She said he was going to be the next Kirby. That is the most ludacris comparison ever. They are of different ethnic backgrounds, play different positions, one is a great hitter, the other hasn't proved to be anything more than average. How is Casilla the next Kirby? Was she referring to the fact that they both are good people, help the community, are role models, etc? Well in that case, I would give that crown to Mauer. I decided to no longer engage this woman as she came off as a total moron.

The game wasn't much of one. Well, it was a nice little pitchers duel between Liriano and Halladay for 6 innings. Then our team of arsonists we call a bullpen came in a doused the place with gasoline and any chance we had of winning went up in flames. I think we are starting to realize how important Mauer is behind the plate. He can't get back soon enough. Redmond is a great backup, and it seems that Morales is barely better than Vic Martienz behind the plate. Although he did do a good job of getting to some balls that bounced past him. Outside of Liriano, this game had very few bright spots. We did get two plays in Sportscenter's top plays; the Cuddyer catch, and the Buscher play at third.

We need Blackburn to go deep in the game tonight, or else we might see a lot of Phil Humber and RA Dickey. I shudder at the thought.

Baker Shelled in Season Debut

2009-04-16T00:00:00-07:00

Last night, Baker returned to action after a brief stint on the DL. My theory at the time was that he wasn't really hurt, the team just thought he wasn't ready and wanted to give him an extra week or so of extended spring training.

Well, either he was hurt (and still is), or he's still not ready. He gave up 6 runs in 4 innings, while giving up four home runs. That's not the first time in his career he's given up four homers, despite Blyleven's apparent claim* that Baker isn't known for giving up home runs.**

* I didn't have the sound on. FunBobby alerted me to the fact that Bert said this.

** Also, in what universe is "20 HR in 28 G" not a lot of home runs? I think Bert's having an "I'm great, nobody else can be as good as me" moment with regards to giving up home runs. Has he ever mentioned that he led the league in home runs once? And that it doesn't mean he's a bad pitcher? I feel like he might have mentioned it.

Well, those four homers erased an early 2-0 Twins lead "earned" in the bottom of the first. Neither run was driven in via a hit. And there wasn't much hitting afterwards, because once we lost the lead the hitters became demoralized and stopped hoping for a comeback. Just like they do every game.

After taking that lead, the Twins were at about 75% to win the game. Let's look at the chart.

As soon as Baker took the field, we dropped back down to 50% on Rolen's 2 run shot. I probably jumped the gun a little bit when I immediately shouted "game over," but it really didn't take long. We dropped below 25% in the third, and hit 0-1% in the 6th. This was simply another disaster of a game, which has become far too common early in the season.

I realize that it's still a little too early to say "It's not really that early any more." We're only 6% of the way into the season. We don't have Mauer. Et cetera.

But at some point, the players are going to have to play well. They're going to have to play well when Mauer returns, or we're still going to get blown out on a regular basis. The pitchers continue to serve up batting practice meatballs and miss their spots (and get knocked out early). The relievers can't find the strike zone and are giving up line drives all over the field. The hitters seem to be competing for the Most Pathetic Plate Appearance trophy (that is, those hitters that can actually see the ball, which it is apparent that Morneau, Cuddyer, and Casilla simply cannot do). The fielders look scared of the ball.

These things all have to change, and they have to change soon. We finish up the four game set against the Jays tonight. Are we going to beat them before late 2011? We play the Angels this weekend. Will it be the 4th consecutive series we face multiple Cy Young candidates and the top offense in baseball?

Introducing Manager Wins Above Expected

2009-04-15T00:00:00-07:00

A lot of people have spent a lot of time thinking about how to measure the performance of a player on the field, and they've largely done the same for the performance of a GM in his office. But when it comes to the manager, there's the hand-wavy "Well it's the players' talent that's important, the manager doesn't do anything" dismissal.* Some go so far as to say a good manager can be worth up to a couple extra wins over the course of the season; conversely, perhaps, a bad manager may be worth a couple of extra losses.

* This dismissal seems strange to me, given that there are new stats like WXRL and WPA/LI, etc, which take into account success -- and opportunities -- in tough, meaningful situations. IE, exactly the situations in which a good manager is supposed to make the moves that put the right players in the best position to succeed. If there's something to what a manager does, and it's not just random dice rolling that determines whether that reliever records a strikeout or that pinch hitter hits a home run, then there must be some way to measure it.

But it seems that nobody's tried to actually measure a manager's impact. The "best manager" discussion is always couched in terms of total wins, or total championships, or total-number-of-nostalgic-stories-told-by-old-sportswriters, rather than attempting to objectively discover who have been the best (and worst) managers in the history of baseball.

Thus, I have set out to try and figure it out.

I start with the notion that a team's Pythagorean record "predicts" how many games a team should win based on its totals of runs scored versus runs against. I would say that one (significant) goal of every manager is to attempt to squeeze more actual wins out of the team's runs for/against than the formula would predict. (Though I doubt many managers would couch their goals in terms like that.)

So I went through the entire Retrosheet database from 1871-2008, counting the actual win-loss record and summing the runs scored and given up for all the managers, ever. It doesn't go by team, but by manager; for example, if Ron Gardenhire were suspended for arguing with an umpire, and Scott Ullger replaced him for a couple of games, then those games and runs would count toward Ullger rather than Gardenhire. Similarly, if Ned Yost is fired in the middle of the season and Dale Sveum takes over, any games Sveum managed count towards Sveum, not Yost. Should be obvious enough.

Once I've summed up the win-loss record and the runs for/against, I can calculate each manager's expected win total based on their Pythagorean record. If this method makes sense, then good managers will have more actual wins than expected wins, and bad managers will have fewer than expected.

Retrosheet's gamelog files for many seasons in the 1970s-1990s have been down for weeks. Thus, my data are incomplete, which is too bad. Hopefully at some point I'll be able to pull down the rest of Retrosheet's data to complete my analysis. In the meantime, I've limited my analysis to 2002-2008, which is the only modern stretch for which I have data. I also decided to limit it to managers with at least 200 total wins, to keep any small-sample-size bias out.

In any case, looking at the limited data, here are the 11 managers who were able to average one win more than expected, per season, over the course of the last seven years:

+----------------+------------+------------------+-----------+------------+-----------------+
| manager_name   | total_wins | total_diff       | max(diff) | min(diff)  | average_diff    |
+----------------+------------+------------------+-----------+------------+-----------------+
| Felipe Alou    |        341 | 15.1456443071365 |   6.07211 |    1.95034 | 3.7864110767841 |
| Ozzie Guillen  |        432 | 13.0560693144798 |    6.8328 |   -1.13229 |  2.611213862896 |
| Jack McKeon    |        241 | 7.37834513559937 |   3.75759 | -0.0560862 | 2.4594483785331 |
| Frank Robinson |        385 | 10.7293409258127 |   4.19535 |   0.104871 | 2.1458681851625 |
| Joe Torre      |        673 | 14.6219349503517 |   11.7966 |   -4.97134 | 2.0888478500502 |
| Ron Gardenhire |        615 | 14.1632239818573 |   7.41682 |   -1.74507 | 2.0233177116939 |
| Mike Scioscia  |        645 | 12.9273184239864 |   11.4814 |   -4.00882 | 1.8467597748552 |
| Ken Macha      |        368 | 6.79638695716858 |   7.24576 |   -5.83313 | 1.6990967392921 |
| Bob Melvin     |        481 | 9.29994755983353 |   12.5254 |   -5.65932 | 1.5499912599723 |
| Ned Yost       |        457 | 6.62773448228836 |   4.62946 |   -3.30011 | 1.1046224137147 |
| Tony LaRussa   |        634 | 7.61316386237741 |   7.79336 |   -3.73349 | 1.0875948374825 |
+----------------+------------+------------------+-----------+------------+-----------------+

Felipe Alou's second career as a manager -- with the Giants -- was shortlived, but he did a hell of a job. He averaged +3.79 wins per season above expected, and was never worse than +1.9 wins. (I don't have any data from his time with the Expos, unfortunately, so this is just when he was with the Giants.)

It's absolutely not surprising that Scioscia is high on the list, given that he was +11 Wins Above Expected in 2008 alone. (Indeed, if you removed 2008 from the sample, his average would drop from +1.8 to +0.2.)

Ozzie Guillen, Frank Robinson, Joe Torre, and Ron Gardenhire are generally regarded as good managers, and they appear high on the list. Tony LaRussa is well regarded, but for all his late inning machinations, he's only +1 WAE/year recently. (Perhaps he was better when he was younger. Further investigation is needed.)

Also, how would you like to be Ned Yost, fired at the end of a season in which you guided your team to the playoffs, after having been a top ten manager over the course of the decade? Probably wouldn't like it much.

If this is a viable investigation, looking at the bottom of the list should show bad managers. So let's look for everyone who won at least 100 games in the last seven years, and averaged worse than -1 WAE (ie, they were one game worse than expected per season).

+----------------+------------+-------------------+-----------+-----------+------------------+
| manager_name   | total_wins | total_diff        | max(diff) | min(diff) | average_diff     |
+----------------+------------+-------------------+-----------+-----------+------------------+
| Alan Trammell  |        186 | -14.2434198856354 |  -3.14609 |  -7.35206 | -4.7478066285451 |
| Jimy Williams  |        214 | -13.0165817737579 |  -1.92939 |   -7.8883 | -4.3388605912526 |
| Eric Wedge     |        495 | -22.6846791505814 |   3.61521 |  -11.6051 | -3.7807798584302 |
| John Gibbons   |        308 |  -16.938233718276 |  0.306474 |  -8.64506 |  -2.823038953046 |
| Jerry Manuel   |        222 | -8.36836788058281 |  0.459961 |   -5.6738 | -2.7894559601943 |
| Buddy Black    |        152 | -4.59854626655579 |  -1.16408 |  -3.43447 | -2.2992731332779 |
| Lee Mazzilli   |        129 | -4.35584957897663 |  -0.19323 |  -4.16262 | -2.1779247894883 |
| Jim Leyland    |        257 | -6.27698922157288 |   -1.6333 |   -2.8878 | -2.0923297405243 |
| Grady Little   |        358 |  -8.0911720469594 |  0.189979 |  -8.29321 | -2.0227930117399 |
| Bob Geren      |        151 | -3.36636139452457 |  -0.20335 |  -3.16301 | -1.6831806972623 |
| Bobby Cox      |        624 | -11.7078827321529 |   3.74093 |  -6.35538 | -1.6725546760218 |
| Clint Hurdle   |        516 |  -11.283863902092 |    4.6587 |  -5.09969 | -1.6119805574417 |
| Larry Bowa     |        251 | -4.51537179946899 |   1.07168 |  -5.19319 | -1.5051239331563 |
| Dusty Baker    |        491 | -8.68119883537292 |   3.29847 |  -5.71592 | -1.4468664725622 |
| Jerry Narron   |        230 | -5.34940385818481 |   4.42873 |  -5.33926 | -1.3373509645462 |
| Carlos Tosca   |        188 | -3.84612214565277 | -0.553967 |  -1.98905 | -1.2820407152176 |
| Buck Showalter |        318 | -4.37028300762177 |      2.84 |  -6.09809 | -1.0925707519054 |
+----------------+------------+-------------------+-----------+-----------+------------------+

It's not exactly surprising that these guys all managed teams that underperformed, given that that's basically what we're measuring. How much of these underperformances were random ups-and-downs, and how much were they influenced by a poor job by the manager?

For the most part, the guys on this list are bad managers of bad teams. It may be that Wedge, Leyland, Bowa and Cox are actually better managers than appears on this list and that because of our subjective opinions of them, we want to discount this analysis. But it's probably worth some harder thought into it. Cox was a great manager, and he's had a great career; however, he's getting old and may not be able to connect with his players or think as quickly as he used to. I've always thought Wedge was a good manager, but how many times does he have to take a roster that's absolutely loaded with talent and guide them to a terribly disappointing season before maybe it's not random, and is in fact his fault?

I'd like to fill this out with more years worth of data from Retrosheet, to get a better look at the careers of Cox, LaRussa, and Torre, along with some historical managers. I think this is a good start, but would be better if I could look at a manager's year to year performance and see if there are any managers who are consistently above their expected wins (like Guillen and Gardenhire appear to be) rather than relying on one amazing season (like Scioscia).

Thus far it looks like it should be possible to measure the performance of a manager, in such a way that one can be compared to another. I'm not there yet, but this appears to be a (small) step in the right direction.

A Much Needed Win

2009-04-15T00:00:00-07:00

Twins 3, Blue Jays 2- 11 innings.

We had a good old fashioned pitchers duel last night. The second time Perkins has been involved in one this season. However, the offense didn't let him down as badly this time. Both lineups were held in check throughout most of the game. It was very frsutrating to see the Twins load the bases with no outs in the sixth only to have Cuddyer strike out, and Crede ground into a double play. Perkins didn't let this get him down, he continued to mow through the Jays lineup until the 8th when he gave up a double to Rios, who eventually scored on a single. His line was still spectacular. 8 innings, 2 ER, 4 Ks, 1 BB. Can't ask for much more out of your pitcher, especially when facing the highest scoring team in the AL.

Crede more than made up for the inning ending DP, with a walk off double off of Jesse Carlson. Our very own Jesse pitched two scoreless to pick up the win.

This was a great game, however I would like to see the offense stop wasting opportunities like they have all season. I understand we don't have Joe Mauer, but that doesn't mean scoring no runs after loading the bases with no outs is OK.

Baker gets the start tonight, with the team moving Duensing to Rochester to make room. This means we are hanging on to RA Dickey for a while. I'm OK with this move, Duensing will be inserted into the rotation in AAA which is probably better for him.

Before the season did anyone think Glen Perkins would be our best starting pitcher after two times through the rotation? I certainly didn't.

Panic Time?

2009-04-14T00:00:00-07:00

With exactly one good start from our group of young pitchers (minus Baker) is it time to hit the panic button in Twins land? It is more than possible that all of our starting pitchers experience some sort of sophomore slump. Hopefully this isn't the case. I like to think that the Twins were careful enough with this group last year.

Kevin Slowey gave up about 100 hits to the Blue Jays last night. On Sunday Blackburn was cruising until the wheels fell of. Same goes for Liriano on Saturday. RA Dickey doesn't really count, and the offense couldn't do anything for Perkins on Thursday. What does this all mean? Probably nothing, since its been 8 games. However, if we can't beat teams like Seattle and Toronto, we might be in trouble. It helps that our divisional rivals are struggling as well.

So what do you guys think? Is there some silver lining I'm missing to these first 8 games? At what point to we have to get worried about our pitchers? 3 starts, 4 starts, July?

Gardy Tells Us to Check the Stats

2009-04-12T00:00:00-07:00

Today Baseball Prospectus managed to get a good quote from Gardenhire regarding the playing time situation for our set of outfielders.

Gardenhire had been asked about the configuration throughout the winter and spring training, and it's clearly begun wearing on him, as he cut off reporters on opening night after being asked just one question about the situation. "It's going to be that [way] all year off and on," Gardenhire said. "We could sit here and do this every game, because we're going to mix them up. These guys are preparing themselves to play. The only people who are going to bring it up every day are [the media]. I don't want to sit here and discuss all the reasons. Read the stats. Check them out. That probably will tell you a little more about who's in, who's out, and we'll go from there. I'm going to play them all year long. I don't have any other way I can do it. I have four outfielders and three places for them to play. Something's got to give. There's no easy solution here. You could sit and say I'm going to platoon here or there, that's not right. That's not the way I want to go about it. You know what? They are good players, and no matter who we put out there, we're going to have an opportunity to win games. I need to mix and match the best I can, and keep them all busy and all playing, which is almost impossible to do.

My only question is ... exactly what stats is Gardy looking at? Will he admit to saying that if you asked him about it?

Oh, and here's an interesting tidbit from the same article:

When Cardinals left-hander Dennys Reyes pitched a perfect ninth inning to close out the Pirates on Thursday, he recorded his first save since September 27, 1999, when he was with the Reds and pitching against St. Louis. The gap of nine years and 192 days between saves was the longest since Curt Schilling went 13 years and 77 days before saving the Red Sox' win over the Devil Rays on July 19, 2005.

Good job, Reyes. (Though the failings of Motte probably have more to do with it.)

Twins 12, White Sox 5. Blowing Open the Game and Coasting to Victory

2009-04-11T00:00:00-07:00

Last night we could all enjoy a comfortable game where the Twins coasted to victory over the White Sox. The game was actually close coming into the seventh inning, when the Twins batted around and plated 7 runs.

In my ongoing effort to introduce everyone to the WPA graphs from FanGraphs, here's what it looks like when a team scores a bunch of runs and turns a tight matchup into a comfortable win:

[caption id="attachment_559" align="aligncenter" width="590" caption="Twins at White Sox, 4/10/2009"][/caption]

As you can see, the Twins and Sox were trading right around 50% through the first half of the game, until Morneau started the 7th with a home run and after that the graph just went to zero for the rest of the game.

Last night I received a question about the second graph below the WPA chart. My first thought was that it represented the WPA change for each play, but it didn't take long to realize why that doesn't make sense, given that it's basically a repeat of the data in the top graph. But, obviously, the label underneath it calls it the "Leverage Index," which is a term I'm familiar with; basically, it represents how important a situation is to a game, before the outcome (WPA represents what happened after the outcome).

The tallest bar isn't a perfect representation of how the WPA graph isn't necessarily tied to the LI graph below it. That bar represents the situation when Josh Fields came to the plate in the bottom of the second, with the bases loaded and two out. The LI bar represents that that's a critical situation. The spike in the WPA graph indicates that he came through. If he hadn't come through, the WPA graph would have gone slightly down rather than way up (because it represents post-outcome probability), but the LI graph would still have a tall bar (because it represents pre-outcome leverage).

So today we got to look at another shape of a WPA graph, and learned a little more about the information the graph can tell us. I'll try to keep posting WPA graphs on my game recaps, perhaps only when they're interesting or novel.

Let's Play a Weekend Series Against the White Sox!

2009-04-10T00:00:00-07:00

Yesterday my entire day was stopped cold upon learning about the Adenhart tragedy. I'm not one for heartfelt words that make one feel better or put their lives in perspective, or anything like that, so I'm just going to try to move on and attempt to use baseball as an escape from life's harsh realities. And I'm not even going to pull a Joe Sheehan and say something like that and then say something heartfelt that helps put things in perspective. I'm really not.

So, let's just try to get things going today.

The Twins are coming to Chicago to face the White Sox, which means three things:

I will not be able to watch the game on MLB.TV, since it's be on Comcast Sports Net here in Chicago
Thus, I will not be able to choose the broadcast, and will be stuck with the infinitely annoying Hawk Harrelson*
RA Dickey will be on the mound tonight, which should be extremely interesting in the windy weather we've got going down here today

If you think the Twins' offense looked miserable this week against what wasn't supposed to be a great Mariners pitching staff, the White Sox looked even worse against an even worse Royals staff. Both teams will be looking to get their offenses back on track, as well as hoping for some better pitching (though the Twins are more in need of that than are the Sox at the moment).

* My only hope in the event of a (probably inevitable) home run is that the fireworks that'll launch right down the street from me manage to drown out Hawk's unbearable home run call. It's happened before ... though sometimes the TV feed is delayed long enough that I hear the fireworks before I see the home run. Believe me, that's disheartening.

This isn't a newspaper, so I don't need to attempt to invent storylines like "Game 163 Revisited" or anything lame like that. The important thing is that this is a big rivalry series and we need to win these games. We need to take two of the games this weekend, and not allow the White Sox to bounce back from their opening week woes (which appears to be the wont of the Twins over the last several years).

Go Twins.

Dickey Pitching in the Cold

2009-04-10T00:00:00-07:00

In case anyone wants to feel hopeful about Dickey in Chicago tonight, here's an interesting take on knuckleballers in cold weather, from intelligent reader thrylos98:

There is another physical factor that affects a knuckleball more than the wind: Air density. The colder the temperature, the denser the air, the less the spin. And throwing a knuckleball with no spin, is like throwing a brick to the batters.

The game is just starting, and Dickey hasn't taken the mound yet. Hopefully that's exactly how it works tonight.

Playing Time Concerns

2009-04-09T00:00:00-07:00

Remember when Gardy refused to DH Jason Kubel because he didn't think a young player should be a DH, and needs a position in the field until he's too old and decrepit to play in the field? Well, he finally got over that with Kubel, who has become our standard DH.

Apparently, though, he's REALLY over it, because it appears that he's decided the proper use for Delmon Young, all of 23 years old, is as a platoon DH against left handed hitters. He'll start in place of Kubel at DH this afternoon, the second time thus far in the young season this has happened (although last time, Cuddyer was the DH and Young started in LF, but the concept remains the same).

Like Mauer and Morneau, Kubel could be good enough to face left handed pitching. With enough right handed bats off the bench, though, a platoon isn't a terrible thing for him, even if it lowers his value. (He's no longer an every day player.)

But it lowers Delmon's possible value even further; in Spring Training it was apparent that Young had worked hard on his defense, and sitting on the bench most nights is not a good way to develop his bat or keep him happy. In typical Gardenhire fashion, it's much more important to keep Cuddyer happy, given that he's six years older and over the course of his career has proven that the performance you can expect from him is just about the same as what you could pessimistically expect from Delmon Young.

While having too many viable starters is a much better problem to have than having too few, before the season started there was at least some hope that Gardy would manage to shuttle the guys in and out effectively. Thus far, the only players who have sat on the bench are Jason Kubel and Delmon Young, who also happen to be the two guys with their names carved in stone above the door on Gardy's doghouse.

There's not an easy solution to this problem, unless someone goes down with an injury. But given that Gardy's strategy seems unsatisfactory, I'm going to put forward a strategy that could be better for the team now and down the road.

Gardy's strategy: Gomez and Span play every night. Kubel is the DH against RHP, bench against LHP. Cuddyer plays every night, either in RF or DH against LHP. Young sits most nights, can play LF or DF against lefties.

My strategy: Gomez and Span play every night. Kubel is the DH against RHP, Young is the DH against LHP. Against RHP, split the time between Cuddyer and Young in RF; don't alternate games, but attempt to go with the hot bat. Additionally, Delmon Young is a right fielder; he should only play LF if Cuddyer is also on the field, which should never happen.

It's possible that Gardy's plan is, in fact, to alternate Young and Cuddyer in the outfield against RHP, and not to do it every game but to attempt to ride a hot bat. If it is, it only appears that he plans to play Cuddyer every day because it just so happens that he got the first turn at it. (Though I'd prefer it if when Cuddyer and Young both play, that Young is the DH; also that Young never plays LF, basically setting Span as the every day LF.)

Is it too early to worry about Young's playing time this season? Probably. But given that Gardy doesn't like to have his team figured out until June, and in a tight race like the AL Central is bound to be in 2009, it's almost certainly better that we pay attention to this kind of thing in the hopes that Gardy notices that Cuddyer isn't sitting down often enough.

Gardy's Non-Punto Emergency Player

2009-04-09T00:00:00-07:00

Look, I know this happened two days ago and is therefore old news, but I just can't let it slide. Remember when we came back in the bottom of the ninth against the Mariners? (In quite thrilling fashion, I might add.) Well, what if we hadn't managed to take the lead, and the game had been tied going into the 10th? Recall that Kubel had pinch-hit for Morales and Buscher had pinch-hit for Punto, meaning our catcher and shortstop were out of the game. And the backup catcher, Redmond, is injured.

What's a manager to do?

Mike Redmond and his pulled groin muscle was going to hobble out to the field to catch the tenth if the game had been tied. And get this: Twins manager Ron Gardenhire had told R.A. Dickey to get ready to play in the field if an emergency situation. “Gardy told me to get my spikes on.” Dickey said. “I was going to go out there and Babe Ruth it. Yesterday, I was the bullpen coach (in place of the ill Rick Stelmaszek). Today I was going to be the right fielder (if needed). This is a heck of an organization.”

Well, Redmond was going to play. Because he's tough like that.

But RA Dickey, the knuckleballer who made the team because he struck out everyone he faced this spring and Scott Baker got injured, was going to play in the outfield.

I really enjoyed seeing the comeback and I couldn't be more pleased with the win. But is anyone else imagining the difference between Cuddyer firing a missle from RF and Dickey fluttering in a knuckleball from the warning track? Doesn't anyone else want to see that?

Also, when he calls it "a heck of an organization," I don't know if he means it in a good way, or if he meant to say "wreck." I'm going to assume the former, because I don't want to start wishing ill on an entertaining knuckleballer who happens to be on our team.

Well played, sirs

2009-04-08T00:00:00-07:00

That is more like it.

Even though its just one win, I think this was a huge statement game. The Twins were downright dominated on Monday when they faced King Felix, and by the looks of things early, it appeared as if Bedard was more of the same. Then they started racking up hits, and got to the soft underbelly of the Mariners bullpen.

Limiting Bedard to only five innings was huge. I'm not sure if Seattle was being careful and pulled him early, or if they didn't think he had enough to get any more outs, but either way I'm thankful he only lasted five.

The two offensive stars of the game were Span and Cuddyer. Despite Cuddyer's propensity to strike out, he had some good at bats. Span was 3-5, which is a great follow up to his 2 walk performance last night. I really think he is going to have a good year. He might not hit 290, but with his defense (at a corner OF position, no less) and ability to get on base, there is no reason he should not be playing everyday.

I was at the game last night, and after the Mariners scored their fifth run, to go up 5-3, people started leaving. My friend questioned this. Why leave with half an inning left. You already invested three hours, why not stay a little bit longer, two runs isnt' much. I agreed. And during the Seattle pitching change, that same friend ran out to use the bathroom and noticed people crowded in the concourse watching the game on the closed circuit TVs. Unbelievable.

Anyway, on to the ninth inning we go. Seattle's closer, Brandon Marrow looks as if he will breeze through the ninth and put the Twins in an 0-2 hole to start the season. Wrong-0! Three consecutive walks, (along with some excellent, if obvious, managing by Gardy) Seattle then brought in Batista (who is terrible) to pitch to Span. Span chopped one to third and it was too high for Beltre to handle. Everybody safe. 5-4. The Casilla finished the job by lacing one back up the middle. Game over.

I was really impressed with how the Twins handled themselves at the plate. They got down early, much like monday, against a good pitcher. This time they didn't go into their shells. They kept battling, scraped together 3 runs in the fifth. Once they realized Morrow couldn't throw a strike, they didn't try to hit bad pitches, like they sometimes do. Just try to get on base. It would have sucked to start the season 0-2, but I think the most important part of this win is that we came back from 4-0, and had solid performance out of the middle relievers. It also showed how important having good bench players is. Kubel and Buscher both had great at bats.

Anyway, game two is in the books, now we get to see what our old friend Carlos Silva is up to.

Twins 6, Mariners 5: Finally Some Home Runs!

2009-04-08T00:00:00-07:00

Homers by Morneau and Span were the most obvious evidence of the offense awakening in game 3, showing off the first power the Twins have found so far this year, lifting the team to a 2-1 record despite a rough night from Slowey -- the third consecutive sub-par start we've had to try to overcome. Given that a big strength of the team is supposed to be the starting pitching, this is a little worrying. But again, it's still early; I think they'll hit their stride.

[caption id="attachment_547" align="aligncenter" width="590" caption="Twins/Mariners, 4/8/09"][/caption]

This WPA graph from FanGraphs is evidence of a significantly more comfortable game than we've played so far this year, and hopefully we can enjoy plenty more games with graphs like this. Especially when the game trades back and forth in such exciting fashion. Absolutely nothing wrong with entertainment like this.

I want to point out Morneau's "double" in the 5th inning, when he drove in a run to tie the game. It was a hard grounder up the middle, that got through and went to center. It scored a run, sure, but the impressive part of the play was the Morneau managed to take second before the ball came back in from the outfield. Blyleven apparently* pointed out that Morneau saw that the CF was running to his left and would thus have to stop his momentum before throwing the ball back into the infield.

* I say "apparently" because I had the game on mute, and my dad reported Bert's comments to me via Skype. (Which, by the way, is a great way to watch a ballgame when there's nobody you know within miles of you.

However it happened, it was good. Because Morneau scored what turned out to be the winning run on the next play when Kubel doubled him home -- Morneau and his "speed" could not have scored from first. It was simply a great play by the Twins' MVP.

Despite my concerns about Slowey and all our starting pitching at this point, this was a good win and we've pushed ourselves into the above-.500-column, which is exactly where we want to be. Game 4 is at noon on Thursday, and hopefully we can push some runs across again and win the series.

Seattle 6, Minnesota 1

2009-04-07T00:00:00-07:00

Well, that was a bit of a setback.

First, the pitchers. Liriano didn't look terrible, despite giving up 4 runs. He went 7, walked 0, but only struck out 3. He made a mistake pitch to Junior, and Junior doesn't let too many mistake pitches go by, even if he is old as hell. The homer by Gutierrezwasn't as much of a mistake, but he was sitting fastball and when Liriano fired one in there Gutierrez was ready for it. Luis Ayala didn't look half bad. Retiring the Mariners on 11 pitches, 9 of them strikes. The other three guys, not as much. Crain threw 16 pitches, only 8 for strikes. Then for some reason Gardy brought Breslow in to face Junior, and he walked him on four pitches. It seemed like he was pitching very cautiously, so why not just intentionally walk him with Crain? Oh well, that doesn't really matter in the grand scheme.

On to the hitters, we had one extra base hit. We had the bases loaded with no outs and scored one run. You CANNOT do these things and expect to win ballgames. Span looked comfortable out there, coaxing two walks. Nobody else really impressed me. I think once our hitters saw Hernandez start to get into a groove they got desperate and started taking bad approaches at the plate. That is not a good thing.

Is anyone else worried that Gardy is going to play favorites with the outfielders, and not give Delmon is fair shake? I think Cuddyer will get more at bats than he deserves. He looked lost at the plate last night, he accounted for 3 of Hernandez's six strikeouts. At least one of which was looking. Obviously, I think Delmon will play tonight, with Kubel probably sitting. I don't know Span's numbers against lefties off the top of my head, but I don't like the idea of sitting out leadoff hitter sometimes. Whoever bats leadoff needs to be a fixture in the lineup everyday.

Redmond hurt is groin running the bases, hopefully he isn't out too long or we will have a Morales/Butera platoon behind the plate. And nobody wants that.

Well, we have 161 more. And Felix Hernandez won't be pitching in all of them.

Souhan Doesn't Even Know the Definition of the Words He's Ranting About

2009-04-05T00:00:00-07:00

I'm pretty sure the reason Jim Souhan and Patrick Reusse don't have RSS feeds for their online content is so that it's impossible to find -- and ridicule -- their articles. But I managed to find one, this time from the desk of Souhan, so it's time to have a little fun with it.

(Editor's note: Jim Souhan's column is unavailable today, so the Star Tribune instead will use this space to print an infomercial.)

Oh good, so we're going to get to see some interesting content then!

Hey, kids! Want to be a big-league hitter? For only three payments of $29.99, we'll show you how you, too, can make millions of dollars by doing nothing.

I see. It was a joke. An annoying tease to trick me into reading the article. Well, judging by this auspicious start, this will be a good one. I mean, what can go wrong with this concept?

Sound too good to be true? Then you haven't been paying attention to Major League Baseball, the only major sport in the world where millionaire athletes get paid to act like defense lawyers -- they stand still, look serious and occasionally argue.

Sometimes I think that the worst thing about baseball is that it turns its fans into crotchety old men who hate everything about it. Maybe that's not baseball, though. Maybe it's just senility.

Don't believe us? Then you haven't been paying attention. Once upon a time, baseball was ruled by fast, powerful athletes, guys who liked to steal bases and hit long home runs. I know, I might as well be telling you stories about dinosaurs, but it's true! Guys like Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle could have played quarterback, wide receiver or small forward, could have anchored a sprint relay team.

In case you were wondering, yes, I do need a ridiculous hook at the beginning of every single paragraph. If I don't get one, I don't know that there's something exciting and important coming up!

I'm a little confused by this, though. Is he somehow implying that players were more athletic forty years ago than they are today? I don't see it.

They went to the plate looking to do something spectacular. Well, thanks to pitch counts, times have changed. No longer do baseball games imitate Clint Eastwood movies, two hours of suspense punctuated by action. Now, baseball games are Robert Altman films, ensemble casts standing around talking and taking forever to get to the point.

So, here we have it. The thesis. The thing we're being sold in this "infomercial." Hitters aren't as exciting as they used to be, because their approach is boring and lawyer-y. And what's to blame? Pitch counts! Of course, why didn't I think of that?

Meanwhile, Eastwood and Altman? Are you deliberately trying to date yourself? Or is this a tacit acknowledgement of the fact that nobody under 50 bothers to subscribe to the newspaper any more?

Thanks to the Yankees and Oakland A's of the late 1990s, and the new-millennium Red Sox, pitch counts rule the game. Thanks to author Michael Lewis, the act of standing still watching pitches -- and hours -- go by is now romanticized.

You keep on saying "pitch count," as if you think pitchers should be throwing more pitches. But your entire complaint is that they're throwing too many pitches. I think you're a little confused.

The baseball filibuster is now in vogue.

That "paragraph" was fun. Whenever I come across a single non-sequitur sentence like that, sitting on its own in the middle of the article, it gives me the impression that the author came up with it on its own, and either needed an article to cram it into, or crafted an article around it just so he could use it. Somehow this line just didn't seem worth it.

This might be bad for fans, who need No-Doze to get through Yankee at-bats, and the help of both Dunn Bros. to get to the end of a World Series game, but it's great for you, the aspiring young baseball player.

Or you could, you know, watch Twins games or something. Instead of watching Yankees games, which you seem to hate. Also, I hope you didn't try to stay up for all of Game 5 last year.

Thanks to pitch counts, you, too, can become a big-leaguer, even if your greatest athletic asset is patience.

Yes, if only managers would leave their pitcher in to throw 150 pitches, children would stop being able to dream of someday growing up to be in the majors.

Here's the deal: The Yankees of the mid- to late '90s were not the bloated underachievers who now wear pinstripes. They were gamers such as the young Derek Jeter and the older Paul O'Neill, and their method of gamesmanship was the high pitch count.

Now I love a good fat joke as much as anyone, but this one kind of fizzled out before the punch line. Also, don't the "bloated underachievers" currently playing for the Yankees attempt to drive up the pitch count much in the same vein as the 90s Yankees? And aren't they pretty good at it? Isn't that what you've been complaining about this whole time?

We all know that the scarcest quantity in sports is quality pitching, and the softest underbelly in sports is middle relief. With O'Neill taking balls and fouling off strikes, with the Yankees intimidating umpires into giving them the benefit of the doubt on every close pitch, games grew longer than the recession.

So what you're saying is that everyone knows about the weaknesses of a pitching staff, and that the Yankees figured out a way to exploit that in a way that helped them win baseball games. Outrage!

But at least there's a timely reference to current events clumsily stuffed in here so we know you're still awake.

If you attended a Yankees game that started at 7:05, you had to be prepared for their opponent to be making its third pitching change in the sixth inning at 10 p.m.

Why would we be attending Yankees games? Isn't this the Minneapolis paper? You are aware that when the Yankees play the Twins, the game goes pretty quickly, right? I mean, the Twins pitchers throw strikes, which remains the best way to keep the games quick. So, given that you're supposed to be writing about the Twins, this is just about the last article that you should be writing. Right?

When good pitching was at its most scarce in the '90s, teams such as the Yankees and A's capitalized, adopting hitting philosophies that often didn't emphasize hitting.

Why was it at its most scarce then? I mean, wasn't that the era of Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, et cetera? I mean, those are four of the best pitchers of all time. I think you can argue that the late 90s was a period of good pitching rarely seen in the history of baseball.

And by the way, if "drawing walks" weren't part of hitting, why is it even possible? Why are there balls? Why is BB listed in the box score?

Those philosophies won titles for the Yankees and praise for the A's, whose general manager, Billy Beane, was immortalized in Lewis' book "Moneyball," in which Lewis portrayed Beane as a genius for drafting players based on on-base percentage and other vital but undervalued statistics.

Actually Lewis portrayed Beane as a genius for finding an inefficiency in the market for baseball players and exploiting it to field a competitive baseball team without the luxury of a large payroll. That there was anything inherent about OBP that Beane cared about is one of the most misunderstood aspects of the book.

The Red Sox hired statistical guru Bill James, adopted the every-at-bat-is-a-siege mentality, and won their first two World Series since 1918.

If only they hadn't done that, we could still make fun of the Red Sox for never winning the World Series, just like we do the Cubs. Instead, they're trying to do things that are smart, and as a result they look smart. I'm cold and scared.

Sure, the emphasis on pitch counts has ruined baseball-watching. Now, if you want to watch the Red Sox or Yankees, you need to invest four hours. If you want to watch a postseason game, you need to stay up until 1 a.m. and take the next day off work.

The obvious solution is not to watch the Yankees and Red Sox, which is remarkably easy for teams who aren't fans of those teams, or even of rivals of those teams. Souhan, where do you live?

Unfortunately, though, I agree with him about the playoffs. But it's not "pitch counts" that are the problem there. It's the fact that they start the games at 8 PM and have 10 minute commercial breaks. I think the horrible demon you have a problem with is not "walks," but rather "Fox."

But that's OK -- the emphasis on pitch counts is good for our society. It keeps people -- namely, baseball fans -- off the streets. Who has time to get into trouble when it takes 30 hours to watch a week's worth of Yankees games?

Yeah, and after watching something so boring, you have to sleep for the other 138 hours in the week. I mean, I get that you're trying to be sarcastic here. And given that you've been doing this since the birth of newspapers, you've probably had enough practice to realize that it should at least make a little sense.

So if you kids want to become big-leaguers, buy our DVD series and learn how to take pitches and drive up pitch counts.

This would be a valuable thing for kids to learn. By learning to take pitches that are outside the strike zone or aren't in the area you're focusing on, you make yourself a better baseball player. You can wait for a better pitch to hit so you can drive the ball and hit those long home runs. Or draw a walk so you can steal bases.

Good point, Souhan, driving up the pitch count is good for baseball, and leads to more exciting things happening. Wait, that's not what you were trying to say? You should probably try again on this one.

If you call now, we'll include a bonus DVD from Paul O'Neill on method acting -- specifically, how to act like every strike called against you is a moral outrage on the order of mass murder.

Wow, what's with the Paul O'Neill hate? And that was the last sentence of the article? Did your computer crash before you could finish? What happened here?

Okay, anyway Mr Souhan, if you've managed to stay awake through this whole thing, let me explain something to you so you don't make this mistake again. When people complain about the "pitch count" being a big problem in modern baseball, they're talking about the practice of lifting starting pitchers out of the game after 100 pitches. They are not talking about batters trying to draw walks to help their teams score more runs and win games. That's "OBP," and it's an entirely different "things were better back in the good old days, when men were men, women were women, and we walked uphill both ways to the stadium every day, in a snow storm" old timey rant.

Predictions Sure To Be Wrong

2009-04-03T00:00:00-07:00

Well, its time for the second annual firegardy.com MLB predictions. I will lay out my predictions for division winners, world series (but not each playoff round) and major award winners. Here goes:

American League

East: Yankees- I really think their pitching will live up to the hype. Having CC, Burnett, Wang, Pettitte is a pretty fearsome rotation.

Central: Indians- This division is a crapshoot. Top to bottom could be separated by only 5 games. I'm going with the Indians because if Victor Martinez and Hafner bounce back even a little, they will be dangerous. And having Matt LaPorta waiting in the wings doesn't hurt.

West: Athletics

Wild Card: Devil Rays- I think everyone knows the AL east will have two playoff teams, just a matter of which two and I like the Devil rays and Yankees and hate the red sox.

MVP: Grady Sizemore

CY Young: Zach Grienke

Manager of the Year: Ron Gardenhire- despite the title of the blog, he is probably due.

National (children's) League

East: Phillies- if it ain't broke....

Central: Cubs- This division is pretty bad. The Cards will be decent because Tony LaRussa could grab 9 guys out of a bar at closing time and finish above 500.

West: the LA Mannys, I mean Dodgers. This Division is also pretty weak. There is plenty of good pitching, and the Diamondbacks are loaded with young, offensive talent, but I think he dodgers are just too good. They might have to add an arm for the rotation at some point.

Wild Card: The Mets..... No I'm serious.

MVP: Puljos- not exactly bold, but he is too good to not pick.

CY Young: Johan.

World Series: Yankees over Cubs. The Yankees are back, for better or for worse.

Leave your predictions in the comments section.

Last Workday of the Offseason!

2009-04-03T00:00:00-07:00

It's the last workday of the offseason, so let's toss together another lengthy article, shall we? This time looking at someone's offseason recap of the Twins.

When I saw the headline over at The Hardball Times, Five Questions: Minnesota Twins, I figured at least one of the questions would be something like "Why do you suck so much?"

Of course, it's possible that my expectations were set by the article's summary in Google Reader, which was, and I quote, "Or, how to succeed in the AL Central without really trying." You don't get to be one of the most efficient teams in baseball without trying, and a division that has two of the top three most efficient teams in all of baseball basically makes it impossible to succeed without trying. I point this out because I wanted to explain my mindset as I clicked through to read the article.

I'm not going to re-post much of it here (it's refreshingly long, and you should go read it yourself). But I'll run through a quick recap of the questions.

[Here's the format: The questions are me paraphrasing his answers, and the italics are me responding to his answers. If you want to know what the actual questions are, too bad. You'll have to wish someone invented some kind of "hyper link" which would allow you to go check it out for yourself. I'll try to paraphrase his answers concisely, accurately, and in such a way that you don't actually need to know the question to get the jist.]

Question the first: Good job not signing another Livan/ROrtiz/Ponson, and going with the young guns. It was long overdue.

I agree completely, and the Twins Blogodome (or whatever it's called) has been basically saying exactly that for years. Finally.

Question the second: The defense sucks. I mean, Gomez and Span are good, but Delmon Young is so bad the outfield defense is pretty much crap overall. Also, the right side of the infield is terrible, as is the middle infield. And Joe Mauer? Overrated. In fact, the Twins were one of five teams to suck across the board defensively.

Wow, he is really not enthusiastic about the defense. I don't blame him, in 2008 the Twins had one of the worst defenses in the league, and certainly by far the worst one they've put together under Gardenhire. But I expect Casilla to improve at 2B, Punto will do a better job than Everett did, and Crede is a pretty big upgrade at 3B. And also, Delmon Young will probably not continue to suck that badly in the field. So I don't know if the defense's prospects are really all that bad.

Question the third: If Crede's healthy it's a huge boon to the offense, and while he fits the Twins "don't walk or strike out" mold, he also diversifies the lineup by adding a flyball-hitting bat.

I don't know if diversifying the lineup in that way is meaningful at all, but it is interesting that Kubel was the only Twins player last year who put the ball in the air more than the major league average. Remember all that talk about how we don't hit home runs? Well, you can't hit home runs without hitting fly balls. Perhaps Crede will help us take advantage of the weaknesses of flyball pitchers, which we've tended to ignore in true Minnesota-Sports fashion. Also maybe that'll rub off on Delmon Young and he'll start putting some air under the ball too.

Question four: This is a make or break year for Delmon Young and since I'm the same age as him I expect him to do well. And if he does, the Twins have a pretty strong middle of the lineup.

That's what I've been trying to tell everyone! There's no reason to think a 23 year old is just going to crap out, and his increased maturity in the last year or so continues to be comforting. And I'd add Kubel to Isleib's potential middle of the lineup.

Fifth and final question: The AL Central blows, so the Twins can rack up wins against shitty teams like the White Sox, Tigers, and Royals.

I really don't know why everyone's going out of their way to bash the AL Central so much this offseason. At worst, they're the third strongest division in baseball right now. The Twins and Indians are two very well run, talented teams, and the White Sox are also a legitimate contender. I mean, the Royals are a joke and the Tigers are the punchline ... but only the AL East doesn't have at least two bogus teams (and even they're pretty close now that the Jays are sinking). I personally think the Twins are the best team in the division, but the gap between them and the Indians and White Sox is extremely small. It's not like this division is going to be "easy" for anyone.

Alright then. That's over with. I thought it was actually a pretty good article, mostly aimed at people who don't follow the Twins specifically. (Which is, of course, the point of these "introduce you to the team" articles.) And it didn't end up being nearly as critical of the Twins as I expected it to be, which I appreciate.

Tigers Learn to Repeat Their Mistakes

2009-04-02T00:00:00-07:00

In 2003, the Tigers lost 119 games. They followed that campaign up with a couple more 90 loss seasons, before winning 95 games in 2006. If you'll recall, everyone took that success to mean that the Tigers had "arrived," and would be the powerhouse of the AL Central for years to come. They had a well-capitalized owner, a large market, a GM with a track record of success, a famous new manager who'd done good things in the past, a young and successful rotation, and a lineup full of All Stars all signed to contracts that would keep them around for years.

Meanwhile, the Twins won the division that year, like they've been doing a lot lately. And everyone called it a fluke that simply shouldn't have happened.

Since then, things haven't gone all that well in Detroit. Just recently they put their $21M pitcher, Dontrell Willis, onto the disabled list for "anxiety," they released DH Gary Sheffield despite owing him $14M for 2009 (apparently realizing that all those All Stars they have signed to contracts all play the same position), and they've announced that 20 year old Rick Porcello will open the year in their starting rotation. He hasn't played above A ball in his professional career, where he struck out 72 hitters in 125 innings. (Not good.)

Detroit's payroll has Dave Cameron swooning, apparently, as he's come out saying this move could work because you don't need strikeouts to be a successful pitcher.

He showed excellent command of his sinker [2.38 BB/9], which allowed him to succeed without racking up a lot of strikeouts. The combination of no walks and lots of ground balls is a recipe for success in the majors. It might not be as flashy as racking up huge strikeout totals, but it’s still a good combination. If Porcello can continue to command his sinker, he has the tools to pitch in the major leagues right now.

2.38 BB/9 is decent command, not "excellent," especially when it leads to a K/BB ratio of under 2. A walk rate like that is good if you're K/9 is over 9 ... not under 6. Of course, the rules are different if the analyst likes your team.

It’s certainly possible that Porcello will struggle, as a lot of 20-year-old pitchers do when thrust into the majors.

Off the cuff, it seems likely that a lot of 20 year old pitchers would struggle when they're thrust into the majors. That's, you know, why we have the minors. But instead of just taking the word of one of these crazy internet bloggers, we need to look into this a little more. By going to a crazy mainstream blogger! Here's Rob Neyer's take:

For whatever reasons, not a single 20-year-old started more than 20 games or pitched more than 99 innings in the 1990s. In the current decade, though, six pitchers have done both: Rick Ankiel (2000), CC Sabathia (2001), Jeremy Bonderman (2003), Zack Greinke (2004), Felix Hernandez (2006) and Clayton Kershaw (2008). And with the exception of Bonderman (6-19, 5.56 ERA) all of them pitched (at least) reasonably well in those seasons.

So 20 year old pitchers don't actually pitch very often in the majors. When they do, it's because they dominated the minors at a young age, are very talented, and they tend to do well in the majors, even at age 20. Promising, right?

Except that the one example of failure was, in fact, these very Detroit Tigers. What did all the guys who had success have in common? They struck people out like crazy in the minor leagues. Unlike Porcello.

Leyland's going to have his work cut out for him, attempting to keep Porcello from ever facing the White Sox, Indians, and Twins, all of whom are simply going to tee off on this guy. Of course, so is the rest of the American League. This is another bad decision in a long series of bad decisions the Tigers have made since they were good back in the 1980s.

Remember when the Tigers had "arrived" and the Twins were a fluke? Does it still look like the Tigers weren't a fluke in 2006?

And another thing. About Dombrowski's "successful" track record. This marks the second time in his career that he's come into a new situation, spent a bunch of the owner's money to put together a good team that year, and then the team immediately began a long and crappy dry spell during which they were no good. So look for GMs like Dombrowski if you want to take one shot at winning 90 games and going to the playoffs once every 5-10 years. And apparently that's considered a "successful" track record.

All in all, I think we're in a better place.

Gary Matthews is still around?

2009-04-02T00:00:00-07:00

Apparently Torii Hunter has a blog entitled Torii's Storiis. Earlier this week he posted his take on Gary Matthews, Jr. and his recent bitching about playing time. A lot of people (myself) included have been saying Matthews should sit down and shut up, let his play on the field do the talking. Apparently Matthews wants guaranteed playing time. Fair enough. Major Leaguers are fierce competitors and can't stand to see someone else take their job. However demanding a trade without taking a pay cut is pretty stupid. Yes, GMJ is way overpaid. However if he had a very reasonable contract someone who needs help in the outfield would probably trade for him. They just don't want him at his current salary, and I don't blame anyone for that.

Matthews had a great (possibly steroid induced) year in Texas then signed a huge contract in LA. I don't blame him for that. I do blame him for expecting to be guaranteed playing time. He hasn't really stayed healthy, and when he has been on the field he hasn't been good. What do you expect, Gary? LA is a perennial playoff team, and they don't get there every year by letting mediocre, overpaid, aging veterans play through month long slumps. The minute they realized he wasn't the answer in center, they went out and overpaid for Hunter. When a career 300 hitter (Abreu) became available at a bargain price, the snatched him up too. Add that with Vlad and Juan Rivera there is no room for Gary. If he really cares so much about playing, take a pay cut, thus allowing LA to trade you to one of many teams looking for an outfielder who can play all three positions. Right now it is impossible for anyone to look past that albatross of a contract to see a moderately useful player.

I know the union won't let him take a pay cut, as it might set a bad precedence. I find that BS. If Matthews VOLUNTEERS to take a pay cut, how does that force other player to do so in the future? It doesn't. It just gives them an option. Its having your cake and eating it too. Hypothetical: Player A has a huge contract but has been relegated to the bench due to injuries, terrible play, and influx of new talent at his position. How does Matthews taking a pay cut to be traded the previous year have any affect on what Player A does? He can just wait it out, get cut and still get his paycheck. Or work his way back into the lineup. Just because the situations are the same doesn't mean the end result has to be.

I don't blame Matthews for taking a huge contract, in fact, good for him. But the Angels sign his checks, so they get to decide how to resolve this situation. End of story.

Evening Injury Updates

2009-04-02T00:00:00-07:00

Okay everyone, here's a little injury update from Joe C.

First the good news:

Twins General Manager Bill Smith said the team is confident Scott Baker (right shoulder stiffness) will return from the 15-day disabled list after missing one or two starts. As for Justin Morneau (sore back): “I’ve been told he should be fine for Opening Day,” Manager Ron Gardenhire said. Delmon Young (sore right shoulder) will be back in the lineup Friday, Gardenhire added.

So there's not much to worry about on this front. I still don't know if Baker's injury was "real" but it sure doesn't sound serious. Of course ... let's not believe them until Baker's actually on the mound for the MLB club.

Second, the funny news:

Nick Punto left today’s game after he fell onto the baseball, back-side first, trying to chase a fourth-inning pop up. “The wind was blowing, the sun was out – it wasn’t the prettiest play I’ve ever seen Punto make,” Gardenhire said. “But they told me he’ll be fine.”

So Punto fell down and landed on his ass, with the baseball underneath it. Man I wish I could have seen that. Stupid not-all-spring-training-games-being-on-MLB.TV. Oh well. At least he's not hurt.

And finally, something to angry up the blood:

This looks like a down year for the Twins. If they win, it's because they've got four or five starters who keep them in most games and because they've got one of the best players in the majors behind the plate. Sure, Baker is eligible to pitch on April 12. But will he? And when he does, will he be 100 percent? And what if another starter goes down? Baker may be the first but he almost certainly won't be the last. As for Mauer, nobody seems to know how to fix him. And again, when he's back, how good will he be? The Twins are always operating on the margins because, with the notable exceptions of Mauer and Justin Morneau, they don't have any excellent non-pitchers (unless you count Denard Span, and I don't yet). Take away one of them and replace Baker with R.A. Dickey -- and yeah, I love the knuckleballer, but c'mon -- and you're looking at a .500 team. At best.

If there were any mainstream optimism about the Twins, Neyer could try to look like a contrarian smart guy by saying stuff like this. As it is, he's yet another guy toeing the company line regarding the Twins and how they suck*. I don't think it's all that reasonable to be this pessimistic about the Twins' chances, especially given that the AL Central is pretty even this season and the Twins always seem to find a way to pull ahead when it's close.

* Oh, and did you know that ESPN and Baseball Prospectus have a new information and opinion (and money) sharing deal going on? I wonder how that's going to effect the anti-Twins rhetoric coming out of ESPN. Actually ... I don't wonder at all.

But, again, just passing along what others are saying about the Twins. As you may have noticed, none of it has been good yet this offseason.

Baker Injured

2009-04-02T00:00:00-07:00

Reader MarkW alerted me to this in the comments, and Joe C confirms: Baker is headed to the DL and won't make his Opening Day start.

His apparent injury is "right shoulder stiffness," which sounds like it could either be bad or nothing. The immediate fear here is that he's following in Crain's footsteps and getting injured for a year immediately after signing a long term contract. That kind of thing infuriates me.

But the other possibility is that they just don't think he's ready for the season (he has a 6.85 ERA this spring), and are giving him a little extra time to get ready down in Ft Myers. More like the Nathan/WBC situation than the Crain/Contract situation.

Of course, ultimately "shoulder stiffness" doesn't mean anything, and we're going to have to wait for more information to come out. As MarkW pointed out, we can only hope that this isn't like the Bonser situation where "soreness" rapidly became "season ending surgery" with nothing in between.

Since Baker hasn't pitched (in an actual exhibition game) since March 27, he's eligible to come off the DL on April 12, so he'll miss a minimum of about a week of the season. 1-2 starts. But he did pitch in a AAA game yesterday, and threw 5 scoreless innings. There is no indication at this time that he hurt himself during that start, though he only threw 58 pitches. (It is also not explained why he was pitching in a AAA game. My assumption is that they knew he was injured ... but then why have him pitch at all. Or that they knew he wasn't ready and wanted to backdate his DL stay.)

Stay tuned for more information, folks.

Morneau Apparently Won't Heed Killebrew

2009-04-01T00:00:00-07:00

Over the course of spring training, we've been hearing more and more about the Twins attempting to unlock Delmon Young's power potential, by simply telling him to "pull the ball more." He's clearly been trying to do that, and he's combined a few home runs with a bunch of weak grounders to the left side of the infield. While it demonstrates that he's willing to listen to the team, I felt that it also demonstrates the team's inability to teach power hitting.

We've also heard about Justin Morneau talking to Harmon Killebrew about home run hitting. It appeared to work, because Morneau immediately started putting balls over the fence. My first thought was "why doesn't Killebrew also talk to Delmon?" That's when I found out exactly what Killebrew told Morneau.

"When I was a young player, I hit for a high average and hit the ball all over the ballpark," Killebrew said. "One year in spring training, I think I was 18 or a little older, [Hall of Famer Ralph] Kiner came up to me and said, 'Kid, you're never going to hit a lot of home runs consistently if you don't pull the ball. That doesn't mean you pull every pitch, but to hit home runs consistently, that's what you have to do.' "

So that's what he told Morneau. "Pull the ball more." While it appears to have made a difference, it seems to me that this is a lot like Ted Williams being a hitting coach; "Come on, just hit the ball. It's not that hard."

But then we learn something a little disheartening. Morneau is in fact NOT listening to Killebrew.

"If he told me to stand with my back facing the pitcher, I'd try it because he's got 573 homers," Morneau said. "He obviously knew what he was doing. So I definitely tried it. I just feel comfortable with what I'm doing."

He tried it. It worked. Then he decided to go back to his old ways because he was more comfortable that way. You know what'd make me more comfortable? A cleanup hitter named Justin Morneau who hits 40 homers and is the second coming of Harmon Killebrew.

Craig Calcaterra has this to say:

Morneau is basically ignoring Killebrew on this point, even if he is doing so in the most polite way possible. Which is a shame, really, because though I don't know that I've seen enough of Morneau to say if he could actually become a Killeresque hitter one day, he'd be a far more interesting player if he tried.

I've seen a whole lot more of Morneau than Calcaterra has, and I still don't know if he can (or can't) be a Killebrew-esque power hitter. But I sure can't argue that it'd be fun to watch him try.

Also, if "pull the ball more" is all the advice you need to hit with more power, why is it that "hitting to all fields" is valued as a veteran, smart thing to do?

And is it at least possible that Morneau take one or two big pull-happy hacks per plate appearance and then goes back to his comfortable "shoot it to left" approach?

The $14M Bat Waggle Gets Cut

2009-03-31T00:00:00-07:00

I have to admit I'm a little surprised this happened. Gary Sheffield and his annoying bat waggle have been cut by the Tigers, despite the fact that they own him $14M for this season.

It's the second most a player has ever been paid to not play for a team. (Behind Damion Easley's 2003 campaign.) But at some point a guy just isn't worth having around.

Last year Sheffield put together a +0.5 WARP, and for some reason Baseball Prospectus has him projected to bounce back to a weighted mean projection of +1.0 WARP. I don't see how they can predict a recovery like that in his age 40 season ... but what I will say is that their statistical projections may be tainted a bit by having been developed during the steroid era.

Looking at FanGraphs' data, he was worth +0.3 Win Values last year. They don't have a Win Values projection on their site, but every projection system they list projects him to improve his wOBA, all but one have him improving his wRAA, and they all see him improving his OPS.

I just don't get it. The guy is cooked. The only reason to have him on your team is if you're forced to pay him ... and apparently even that isn't enough. Now we'll see which team feels like it'd be a good idea to have him around for free*.

But given that the Tigers just demonstrated that they're willing to waste an expensive salary by cutting a worthless player, what does this mean for The Dontrelle Situation? Granted, their entire team is overflowing with corner-OF/DH types, and they don't exactly have an overabundance of quality starting pitching. So maybe the situations aren't analagous enough. Still, I think it's become worth watching.

* The conspiracy theorist in me wonders if it has anything to do with the fact that he's a former steroid user (he admitted to doing the cream and the clear, but denied they were steroids because he "doesn't let guys stick things in his butt"), and he currently has 499 career home runs. Can anyone else see Bud Selig picking up the phone and telling the Tigers he'd pick up part of Sheffield's salary if they cut him before the season starts? I can. Can you see him putting a little pressure on the rest of the owners to give Sheffield the Bonds Treatment? I can. Do you think this is really what happened? I, um, don't really think so. But given that this is a blog and I can say whatever I want to, I'm just going to toss it out there.

At the end of the day, all this means to the Twins is that we won't be distracted by the bat waggle any more, and he won't victimize our pitching by smashing home runs all the time against us. I had the distinct feeling he was going to hit #500 against us.

Roster Update

2009-03-31T00:00:00-07:00

According to LEN3, Jose Morales has been told he will start the season with the Twins in Minneapolis. I think this is good news, as it is my opinion that Morlaes is a better player overall than Drew Butera. Word out of camp was that Butera was stronger defensively, but Morales made up enough ground in that department in the last few weeks to earn the job.

On the bullpen front, the other Jose M, Mijares, was cut from camp and will begin the season in the minors. This is a good move as well. Mijares showed up out of shape, and pitched poorly. Those are both bad things.

Cuddyer is getting a sore index finger checked out, it is apparently just routine, but I stopped trusting the twins when they say someone is injured but its "no big deal". Bonser's shoulder injury wasn't a big deal, remember. A week late, "oops, he's done for the season, maybe his career, not the one to two weeks we initially thought. Our bad". Lets hire some new doctors, ones that DIDN'T go to Hollywood upstairs medical school.

As we are now less than one week away from opening day, it is snowing in Minneapolis. This is why I will miss the metrodome. Yes, Target field in the summer will be awesome, but target field in April and October (hopefully) will be miserable. Is it against the rules to play the first and last months of the season at the dome? I mean nobody will be using it. I'm just sayin'.

How Does Chipper Jones Relate to Joe Mauer?

2009-03-31T00:00:00-07:00

How do they relate? Well, I can think of a way.

As he often does, Craig Calcaterra over at The Harball Times has come up with an interesting thing to think about. This time, in regards to the recent extension Chipper Jones signed to stay with the Braves:

Seriously though, for Braves fans this is one of those things that transcends objective analysis. I really don't care what his injury risk is. I really don't care how much money it's for. At some point and with some players you have to throw that stuff out the window, and Jones is the player you do that for in Atlanta. He's the Braves' Al Kaline, and that's the kind of guy you never want to see in another uniform, no matter how much of a shadow of his former self he becomes by the end of the deal.

Obviously Chipper is 11 years older than Mauer, and it's way too early to be thinking about that. But I have the distinct feeling that a lot of people already feel the same way about Mauer.

That he needs to stay a Twin, even if it costs a lot of money and for the last few years of his career he's a hobbled, limping shell of the player he used to be. That if the Twins allow him to leave for another team, for whatever reason, it would be an abject failure.

I don't know how I feel about this. On one level I want Mauer to stay a Twin forever. But I know he won't be able to turn down $200M from the Yankees or Red Sox.

And I don't think the Twins should compete with them to sign him like that, because by the end of that contract he'd be in his mid-thirties, getting paid $20M or so to be a backup catcher. Or a below average defensive catcher. Or a below average offensive third baseman. Or something other than what he is today.

I doubt I'm going to want to put myself in the situation where I might resent Mauer for being an overpaid albatross dragging down the Twins. And even though it's like 10+ years away, I think it's worth thinking about. (When players sign for 10 years, you have to be able to think 10 years ahead. Or at least try to.)

What does everyone think? Is it worth it to the team to ensure that their star players stay for their whole careers, even if it hurts them on the field? Do you want Mauer to be a Twin when he's 37?

Olney's Latest: Is Gomez Getting Bigger?

2009-03-30T00:00:00-07:00

Today Buster Olney went around the league to talk to scouts, etc, and has come back to report their thoughts. Shockingly, one of them (an anonymous "AL Official") actually had something to say about a Twins player:

Carlos Gomez of the Twins looks like he's gained a lot of weight in the lower half of his body, to me. He's filling out, physically, and at some point, he's going to get bigger in his chest, too. I wonder if he'll be able to run the same way if he keeps getting bigger.

The impression I got of Gomez hasn't been that he looks all that much bigger*, but I suppose it's possible I just haven't noticed. That said, isn't this a good thing?

The lower half of his body gets bigger -- and he's able to generate more power. The upper half of his body follows -- and he's able to generate more power.

As long as Gomez doesn't get fat, I'd say this is unequivocally a good thing.

* Has anyone else noticed anything? Does he look bigger than he did last year?

I wonder if the scout would have focused on the future possibility of Gomez getting slower if he weren't on the Twins. Perhaps he would have pointed out the potential for increased power.

Speaking of which, here's a little brilliance from an anonymous "AL Talent Evaluator:"

I love the way the White Sox play. Does any other organization have as consistent of an attitude from ownership through the general manager, to the manager and field personnel?

Awesome. After years of the entire White Sox organization, at every level, repeating their new mantra ("We want to be just like the Twins"), this guy takes notice and singles them out as unique. I just ... I just don't know what to say about this.

Other than that I can point out at least one other organization that has as consistent an attitude from ownership through the general manager, to the manager and the field personnel. Does anyone want to guess which organization that might be?

Power/Speed Blend and its Relation to Organizational Efficiency

2009-03-25T00:00:00-07:00

Today Baseball Prospectus looked at the combination of power and speed on a team, with Christina Kahrl positing an opinion that power/speed will soon be as important in defeating market inefficiencies as OBP was a decade ago and pitch-counts/defense have more recently become.

Her plan is to use ISO (isolated power, or slugging percentage minus batting average) to measure power, and a newfangled stat pioneered by BP called "EqBRR" (Equivalent Base Running Runs, which attempts to encapsulate not only steals, but caught-stealing, advancing on outs, and taking the extra base on a base hit -- I do not know how they calculate it). She uses the PECOTA projections for every player on every team, sums them per team, and then combines them to come up with the power/speed "blend" for the team.

My first thought about this is that I think a power/speed blend is more interesting on a per-player basis (ie, if Gomez reaches his potential he'll have a great power/speed blend and will be a great player -- and one of the more interesting and entertaining players in the game). But a good "blend" of power and speed does not signify a good player: check out Morneau, or Manny, or Youkilis, or any number of great players who can hit the cover off the ball but can't run to save their lives. Or look at guys like Ichiro or Willy Taveras who are great runners but don't generate any power; they also have a terrible "blend" of power and speed, but are valuable players. Meanwhile, while Grady Sizemore would have a great blend, Mike Redmond would have an equally great blend: ie, he's slow as hell and can't run. Does having a good or bad blend of power and speed really signify a good or bad player, one way or the other?

If you sum it up across the entire team, is that problem minimized or not? I don't know, it doesn't seem like that would change the fundamental problems with the "blend" concept in the first place. Given that the linked article is about taking advantage of market inefficiencies, are we to take it to mean that a team with a bad "blend" are inefficient, in the generally accepted "win ballgames without spending a bunch of money" sense? Well let's take a look at the data and see if it tells us anything.

She gives the top five and bottom five teams in terms of power/speed blend:


Team     EqBRR ISO  NrmEqBRR  NrmISO  Mult    Age
Padres   -7.99  .143   -1.88    -1.08   2.04   29.6
Marlins   6.28  .170    1.64     1.10   1.80   26.7
Braves   -3.71  .143   -0.83    -1.06   0.88   28.1
Phillies  1.68  .172    0.50     1.26   0.64   31.6
Orioles   2.80  .165    0.78     0.69   0.54   29.0
ChiSox   -3.99  .172   -0.89     1.27  -1.13   29.3
Rockies  -5.04  .169   -1.15     1.05  -1.21   27.9
Angels    6.23  .146    1.63    -0.84  -1.36   29.4
Cards    -7.60  .170   -1.79     1.12  -2.00   28.4
Twins     5.22  .130    1.38    -2.10  -2.89   27.1

Alright. So the Padres have the best blend. Kahrl jokes about this, calling them a freak show and describing them as a "sadly amusing statistical oddity of San Diego boasting the most evenly bad blend of power and speed." (They're like the Mike Redmond of baseball teams, blend-wise.) So moving beyond them, the top five includes the defending champion Phillies along with three more bottom dwellers. So four bad-to-awful teams along with a good team; sure doesn't seem like having a good blend of power and speed guarantees that you're a good team or a well run franchise.

The bottom five is even more interesting. The White Sox and Angels went to the playoffs last year, and the Twins were somewhere between 0 and 1 game short of making it. The Rockies were in the World Series in 2007, and the Cardinals won it in 2006. These are by no means bad teams.

Looking at the Twins for a moment, I'm somewhat amused -- but not surprised -- by the fact that they dwell at the bottom of the list (and by a considerable margin). They had no power and good speed last year, and while these are not based on last year's stats but rather on PECOTA, there is no doubt that PECOTA hates the Twins like it hates no other team. Frankly, I expect the Twins' power to improve significantly in 2009, as Gomez and Young* develop and with the addition of Crede's powerful bat, as well as ditching Adam Everett's swiss cheese fungo bat.

* Is anyone else amused by the fact that the Twins have actually realized that they have to try to encourage Delmon Young to develop into a power bat, and the only way they can think to do that is to tell him to "pull the ball." I'm sure there's more to it than that. And they were encouraged by his 4 double play game, given that all four GIDPs went to the left side of the infield. Maybe they should just have him talk to Killebrew just like Morneau does.

Ultimately, while it's possible that power/speed blend becomes some sort of market inefficiency in the future, it doesn't appear to indicate an inefficiently run front office today. By the various measures we've looked at here, the Twins are either in the top three most efficient franchises, or number one on the list. Similarly, the Angels are one of the better run organizations: by thrylos98's measure they're tied for #4 with the Indians, who were in the top 3 by my more simplistic measure. By the same token, the Marlins are an efficient organization and are near the top of the list. (Oh, so are the Rockies.)

I'd say we've demonstrated very well that being at the bottom of the power/speed list does not indicate that you're a poorly run organization. By the same token, being at the top of the list doesn't mean you're well run (or not).

It seems to me that power/speed blend just doesn't have any correlation one way or the other with an efficiently run franchise. And it also doesn't seem to have any correlation with "excitement," given that the Angels, Twins and Marlins are all exciting teams to watch, while the Padres and Braves simply are not.

I wonder whether Kahrl's article was a legitimate piece or whether it was simply a way for her to meet her "bash the Twins" quota by finding a way to put the Twins at the bottom of a list.

Gomez has sore back and other notes

2009-03-24T00:00:00-07:00

I'm pretty sure this isn't a big deal, but Gomez will be sitting out until Friday with a sore back. With the way the schedule works, it makes sense for him not to play. We have two road games this week, so he will be sticking around the Twins complex. When you have a sore back, sitting on a bus for hours doesn't speed up the healing process. I'm sure he will be fine in no time, but this is a good chance to get him some rest.

Not really much other news today. The Twins hit four bombs yesterday against the O's. And won.

Japan beat Korea in 10 innings last night in the finals of the WBC. So we are done with this for a few years.

The West Michigan White Caps have introduced this as their newest concession item. I almost threw up when I saw it. Anything that has nearly 5,000 calories shouldn't be sold to the public. I'd prefer it if they sold beer and cigarettes to children than this burger. I mean come on, who in their right mind would eat this. I don't even know HOW I would eat. I guess with Minor League baseball you need to attract fans somehow, maybe if the fans spend part of a season eating these things they will eventually have to buy two seats. Just like that, double your attendance. Genius!

The Marlins got fundingfrom Miami-Dade county for their new stadium. They got 515 million for the baseball only stadium, and 94 million for surrounding parking structures. Say what you will about tax-payer funded stadiums, but if there is one team in the Majors who doesn't deserve one, its the Marlins. Maybe the Nats too, but that ship has sailed. I mean, most teams who have a tax-payer funded park have at least tried to put a winning team on the field. Maybe not every year, but its hard to remain competitive year in and year out, it goes in cycles. The O's seem to be on the rebound, the Mariners are in a rebuilding period, etc. The only team that has no obligation to put a winning team on the field is the Giants. Since they paid for their stadium themselves. They can do as they please, I guess. The 94 million for parking will be repaid to the county as the team sells the spaces. Jeff Loria has to either sell the team, or get committed to having a good team by the time the stadium is up and running in 2012. That means lock up Hanley Ramirez and your good young pitchers. The team will also be changing their name to the Miami Marlins. I think that sounds dumb, but it was part of the agreement.

The Dontrelle Situation

2009-03-22T00:00:00-07:00

Last week I was talking to my dad about Dontrelle Willis' ongoing problems, and what the Tigers are going through with him. (How would you feel if we signed a guy to a 3 year, $20M+ contract and he proceeded to immediately suck worse than anyone and have to be sent down to A ball? And then the next year give up more runs than innings pitched in spring training, while making constant and drastic changes to his mechanics? Not good, right?)

But it was also in the context of Bert Blyleven's stint as the pitching coach for the Netherlands, and what a great job he did with their young pitchers. Everyone really lauded the work he did, shaping up the pitchers, simplifying and solidifying their mechanics, and teaching them to step up to the moment and get outs when they need to.

So, inevitably, the discussion turned to the possibility of the Tigers cutting their losses with Dontrelle and just releasing him, followed by the Twins picking him up, stashing him in the minors, and switching Bert from TV-analyst to some sort of special minor league pitching consultant whose first responsibility is to fix Dontrelle Willis, followed by helping out with all the rest of our young pitchers. (He clearly has the skills for the latter, and the former has such huge upside that it's got to be worth some kind of shot, right?)

Well, Olney takes a look at the Dontrelle situation today.

Internally, the Tigers have talked about breaking their camp with the best group of pitchers possible -- and if Dontrelle Willis isn't among the best, then the Tigers will have to determine another course of action. Willis has pitched 8 1/3 innings and allowed 17 hits, seven walks and 15 runs (12 earned), and rival talent evaluators believe Detroit will take one of two courses of action unless Willis shows dramatic improvement over the last two weeks of camp.

Go about the business of getting Willis to the minors, where he can get in more work.

Release him.

Willis' struggles led to an interesting discussion among a couple of scouts this spring: How many pitchers have come back from the kind of acute control problems that Willis experienced last year, when he was missing his target by feet, rather than inches? The scout couldn't come up with a single example of somebody who regressed and then made it all the way back.

That doesn't exactly sound promising. I mean, the prospects of the Tigers releasing him are somewhat promising in that the Twins could pick up a potentially valuable arm for free -- but it's interesting that nobody has ever had problems like this and then proceeded to come back from them and be their former self.

If it's true that once-you're-done-you're-done, obviously it wouldn't be worth wasting time on Willis. What are your thoughts? Do you think Dontrelle can fix this? Do you think it's possible for someone who develops these kinds of mechanical problems to fix them? What are the implications of realizing that it's not possible for someone to rebound from major issues on player evaluation? (In other words, does it lend more fuel to the argument that perhaps the Twins shouldn't try "low risk" reclamation projects like Ponson, Ortiz, et cetera?)

Reusse "Admits" He Was Wrong About Casilla

2009-03-22T00:00:00-07:00

This week Reusse penned a little special on Alexi Casilla's emergence, along with a little history of his time with the Twins.

He decided to start his article with the event that brought Casilla into The Mind Of Reusse, or as Reusse probably likes to call it, "existence." Yes, the history of Casilla started with Luis Castillo being traded.

General Manager Terry Ryan was criticized for giving up by the local sports media.

And you, Mr Reusse. I seem to recall you trying to get Ryan fired for that trade. So I suppose this article is going to be you eating some craw and admitting to being wrong about Casilla, right?

[It] allowed Santana to add a dash of righteous indignation to his mind-set as he rejected the Twins' attempts to re-sign him.

Bringing back the old argument that Santana wanting out was Ryan's fault ... sure doesn't seem like Reusse's planning on admitting that he might not have been totally right that Casilla sucked, Castillo would play well until he's 50, and Santana would have signed for $10M/year if only we hadn't traded Castillo. Then again, maybe he's just really setting us up for a good one.

Reusse then goes over a brief history of Casilla's recent career, mostly stuff that everyone already knows. He talks about Casilla working with Oliva and Vavra to improve his lefthanded swing (which is interesting and a good thing).

"I never see my name anywhere when people write about our team, but I'm playing well," Casilla said.

This really has nothing to do with Reusse, but I think it's a good point. And it goes back to what I said in response to Dave Cameron's idea that Jose Lopez is part of the future core of the Mariners but Casilla is useless dead weight (or nothing at all) on the Twins. Casilla is younger and better than Lopez, but for some reason nobody ever talks about him. What's a guy got to do to get noticed nationally?

I think one place to start is for the local media not to constantly find ways to shit on him, and when they can't find anything, just writing nothing about him at all. That way national people only hear the bad things about him, and don't look any further. That's how it connects back to Reusse. Didn't think I could do that, did you?

He was going to be heading back to Rochester as soon as Nick Punto recovered from a hamstring pull. Instead, the Twins stumbled into a switch-hitting, playmaking second baseman -- a younger, faster Luis Castillo.

I ... would not call it stumbling into a "younger, faster Luis Castillo," given that that's exactly what Terry Ryan said Casilla would be like. This is not Ryan doing something stupid and it accidentally working out for the best, ie "Pulling a Homer." This is just a good move that worked. So we're right at the point in this article where Reusse admits he was wrong about Casilla and shouldn't have criticized Ryan so vehemently.

As it turned out, Terry Ryan was right all along about Casilla ... just 10 months early.

Almost. He almost made it. He admitted that Ryan was right, but not that Reusse was wrong. And finished with that nice little parting jab, finding a way to criticize Ryan even for being right.

I'm watching this cooking show right now, and the host made a drink called "Risky Whiskey." The ingredients are 3 parts whiskey, a quarter part maple syrup, a splash of sweet vermouth, two splashes of lemon juice, and a bit of bitters. I do not understand any of these units of measurement. Especially because a splash is larger than a quarter part, and a splash is the same size as two splashes. What in blazes is a splash? And why is it three parts if the only other ingredient that uses parts just uses "one quarter part?" In what way does this make sense? For some reason, cooking shows like this one remind me of newspapers.

As everyone knows, I'm big on Casilla and always have been. I was thrilled to see him perform well last year, and hopeful that fans and writers would finally start to realize that he is a huge part of the future of this team. It feels like we're almost there.

MLB Tries to Become More Like NBA ... Or Grade School

2009-03-22T00:00:00-07:00

Just learned this: MLB is trying to crack down on players who wear their pants slightly too long.

Putting aside the fact that I prefer players who wear long socks vs those who wear long pants, it seems to be the style of the time. So it's not really worth raising a stink about it, I think.

So the league is doing this the right way, and treating all the players the same, right? They're telling stars like DOrtiz and Manny that they're going to have to shorten up their pants ... right?

Ha, if you thought MLB would consider it a good idea to treat its stars the same as everyone else, you obviously haven't been paying attention to the way the league operates. Ortiz and Manny can wear their pants however they damn well please, thank you very much.

But if Denard Span does it, it'll cost him $1000 per infraction.

Span claims it was an accident, but I don't care. This is just idiotic. It's just as dumb as the NBA trying to require their young black players to dress like their old white owners instead of how they want to (and like their young black fans do). Except this doesn't even have the excuse of doddering-rich-white-guys-who-are-totally-out-of-touch-with-reality.

I can't decide if this is an individuality-reducing power play like school uniforms, or if it's a revenue generating ploy for the league in a tough economic time (kind of like those cameras that catch you speeding and send you a bill).

Either way, it's lame. And it's even worse that they won't enforce the fines for players that make a lot of money.

For Some Reason, People Seem Interested in Bonds Signing ... With the Twins

2009-03-22T00:00:00-07:00

I missed this last week, but apparently someone once again brought up the question of the Twins signing Barry Bonds to play LF/DH. This time, Baseball Prospectus reports:

"Who do you want me to get rid of, [Delmon] Young, [Michael] Cuddyer, [Carlos] Gomez, [Denard] Span, or [Jason] Kubel? Which one?" —Twins general manager Bill Smith, on saying no to Barry Bonds on the Twins.

Of course, Baseball Prospectus would say "You should get rid of all of them." And around the nation, they're not alone. People think Delmon is a failure at best, Cuddyer owns one of the worst contracts in baseball, Denard is a one-year fluke who couldn't hit in the minors and is "inadequate" in the field, Gomez has an unforgiveably low OBP and a high strikeout rate and an inaccurate arm, and we would have been better served to release Kubel than to offer him a multi-year contract.

For example, here's Buster Olney's take, today, on Delmon Young (as one of the ten players to watch this year):

7. Delmon Young, Twins: He was a No. 1 draft pick, and after he made his major-league debut, Ozzie Guillen talked about him as a someone with the potential to be a future Hall of Famer. And yet just a couple of years later, it feels like he's at a crossroad in his career. Young was traded from the Rays to the Twins and struggled to drive the ball last year amid questions about his ability to adapt. He's battling other players for at-bats this year, with no job assured, and if he has a tough year, he would be a candidate for another trade -- at less cost -- or perhaps even a non-tender.

I'm going to go ahead and say it's safe to say that Delmon Young will not be non-tendered after this season. Regardless of how he does in 2009. Although I still think he'll do well. But it's sometimes worthwhile to take a look at what others think of the talent on our team. Verdict: they still think we're all terrible. And that Barry Bonds isn't.

"I said that [outfield] is one area of strength and depth on our club, and we're going to go with the guys we've got." —Smith, on what he told Bonds' agent.

Apparently Smith was actually in talks with Bonds' agent, which surprises me to no end. But it sounds like said agent was actively shopping Bonds around. The tone of these quotes doesn't indicate that Smith called Jeff Boris just to tell him "Hey we're pretty much set at outfield and DH, so we don't have any interest in Bonds." That doesn't really make any sense.

But it appears interest is still out there in regards to where Barry Bonds will land in 2009, if anywhere. I agree with Smith that outfield has suddenly become a strength of the organization -- that wasn't true a year or two ago, when that was arguably the weakest area of the organization. That, in addition to the questions regarding Bonds' character, age, physical condition, availability (due to legal concerns), and ... was there something else? ... oh yeah, the steroids thing, leads me to be against the Twins signing Bonds.

And it's pretty clear it won't happen. Why would a rumor like this even get started, or a quote like that occur / be published?

Objective Organizational Rankings

2009-03-21T00:00:00-07:00

Lately there's been a lot of talk about Dave Cameron's organizational rankings over at FanGraphs. He's been rating the organizations based on their ownership, front office, major league talent, and minor league talent, in the interest of determining which organizations are in the best position going forward rather than a measurement of past performance. The main problem everyone seems to have with the process is that Cameron is diverging from his typical methods, and instead of using any objective measures is simply going based on his opinions, and ranking the teams essentially randomly, or at best based on personal prejudices for and against the various teams. In this way, he managed to determine that the Seattle Mariners are a better run franchise than the Minnesota Twins, which I'd say is one of the best examples of the absurdity of his endeavor.

While many of us, myself included, have simply been screaming into a deaf windstorm about this, and pointing out the flaws in his methodology and explaining why he ranked individual teams incorrectly, valued Fire Gardy reader thrylos98 decided to take matters into his own hands and actually come up with a system of objective measurements to rank the positioning of an organization going forward. Let's take a look.

First, the criteria:

Front Office: The idea is to create a winning team spending the least amount possible. The metric I am using for this is the sum of a team's wins the last three years (multiplied by 5 to emphasize that wins matter more than payroll) over what the team spent as player payroll to get those wins

Major League Talent: Remember this is forward-looking. My measurement for this is the sum of a team's wins in the last three years (multiplied by 2 to add more weight to wins, because that's what it matters) over the average age of the team's hitters and pitchers in 2008

Minor League Talent: This was probably the easiest thing to calculate. I am using the overall winning percentage of an organization's minor league teams. Top prospects and minor league stars are great, but organizational depth is very undervalued and those are the guys who would potentially bail out a team if its starting short stop got a finger caught in a base (sounds familiar?)

In this way he puts together a system whereby teams can actually be ranked based on ownership/front-office acumen, major league talent, and minor league talent, based on the franchise's ability to win actual baseball games, rather than arbitrary opinions based on secondhand knowledge of owners, executives, players, and prospects.

He ran every team in baseball through his system, and came up with an ordering. If you want to see the intermediate results, I recommend you go and take a look at his article. Here, we're just going to look at the final results.

1. Twins 2. Marlins 3. Angels 4. Indians, Athletics 6. Rockies 7. Rangers 8. Blue Jays, Red Sox 10. Yankees 11. Diamondbacks 12. Nationals 13. Padres, Giants 15. Cardinals 16. Rays, Mets, Cubs, Philies 20. Brewers 21. White Sox, Braves 22. Reds 24. Dodgers, Royals 26. Pirates 27. Tigers 28. Mariners 29. Orioles, Astros

Given that the system values winning ballgames without overspending, and having an actual core of young players, it emphasizes well-run franchises. Thus it's no surprise to see teams like the Twins, Angels, Indians, and Athletics clustered at the top of the list: these are the best run organizations in the league. And the Twins top the list.

However, the Florida Marlins are #2, and I think that highlights one of the failings of these criteria. The Marlins are generally regarded as a joke franchise, and while the front office does a remarkably good job of putting together a team on a shoestring budget and seem to be constantly generating high-level offensive talent, they're rarely actually a good team. The fact that they spend just $20M on their team, and that their entire team is young (pre-arbitration players are cheap!), really help them fly up the rankings. I don't mean to single out the Marlins (well, maybe a little, but that's not really the point), but I think there's a good way to improve the system that might measure the franchises more accurately.

The system weights wins/$ and wins/age on a linear scale. In reality, the value of wins does not increase linearly as you increase the number of wins. 90 wins is a lot more valuable than 85 wins; a lot more than 5.5% more valuable. What I would like to see is a non-linear multiplier, whereby a higher number of wins gets multiplied by more than a lower number of wins. (Think about it like a progressive tax rate: the more money you make, the higher your tax rate.)

That change would focus the system more closely on the teams that actually contend every year. Doing it on a budget and with a young team would still be valued, but putting a mediocre product on the field would no longer be rewarded just because you do it with 21 year olds making the minimum solely because you're not interested in winning as much as you are in saving money.

I suspect this would push the Red Sox and Yankees a little higher in the top 10, the Twins, Indians, and A's would be largely unaffected, the Marlins would plummet back to where they belong, and the White Sox would probably jump into the top 15 (it would also help the Angels, I suspect).

Also, I don't know if I see the value of minor league winning percentage as an organizational-health metric. It seems to me that a) it focuses on depth at the expense of upside, and b) wins in the minors are largely meaningless. On the former, consider that while there are hundreds of minor leaguers in every organization at any time, there are only 25 major leaguers. It's more important to have a handful of potential superstars than it is to have a gaggle of organizational fillers; and I think this system's reward system has that backwards. On the latter ... consider the case where a team promotes a couple of its good young players from AAA to the majors in midseason. Immediately, that minor league team starts losing more games than it had been (its best players have just been yanked away). That weakens the minor league system in this ranking, when in reality the system had just proved its positive value to the team in supplying good young players. I think this, too, is backwards.

I don't have a realistic solution to the problem of measuring minor league talent across an entire organization. But hopefully by pointing out my problems with it, someone else can come up with a metric that might be better.

So that was an objective look at the health of the franchises going forward, essentially taking another look at the question of efficiency from a different perspective. The Twins, Indians, and Blue Jays were found to be the most payroll-efficient teams in baseball; weighting wins more heavily and valuing youth pushes the Blue Jays down and the Twins up. And like any system that values wins, a low payroll, and a young team, the Twins end up #1.

The Mariners? #28. Amusingly, Cameron couldn't have been more wrong about either of these teams, in opposite directions.

Mauer likely to miss opening day.

2009-03-21T00:00:00-07:00

Joe Mauer announced today that he will likely miss opening day. This is not good for the Twins. So, who will share catching duties with Mike Redmond for the start of the season? My guess is either Butera or Morales. I would choose Morales, because he is the better hitter. The bigger question, is how will the lineup be affected? Who will take Mauer's place batting third?

Do you move Morneau up? Slide one of the right handed hitters (Cuddyer or Young) in between Casilla and Morneau? That might be the best solution. Another option is Kubel. This would be my choice, considering he is the third best hitter on the team, after Mauer and Morneau. I don't feel its necessary to alternate righties and lefties, moving Kubel up makes sense. Whoever is catching should probably be batting 7th or 8th. Losing your #3 hitter is a terrible loss, and it probably hurts the Twins more than most teams. However, I think this team is deep enough, that we can survive a few weeks without Mauer. The pitching is good , and if we get decent production out of Cuddyer and Young, we should be able to keep our heads above water.

If Mauer's absence stretches beyond a week or two, we might be in trouble. Having Redmond/Morales/Butera in the lineup everyday is no good. Does anyone think if we need a better catcher for an extended period, they might allow Ramos to make the jump? Or is there no way he will be ready to contribute in 09?

I know this is a subject nobody wants to discuss until we absolutely have to. Speculating about losing your starting catcher/best hitter for a long time is never fun. So I will try to make this the last post about it. Unless some real news breaks.

More Analysis That Doesn't Understand (Or Like) the Twins At All

2009-03-20T00:00:00-07:00

Is anybody else in the mood for reading about the Twins being criticized by another self-described statistical analysis for not having the patience of the nation's average drug-addled 10 year old? Because I sure do!

This time around it's Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus, recapping the offseason moves made by each of the teams in the AL Central.

Testing, testing... is this thing on?

Nice little bit of humor there to start out; I'm guessing he intends to focus on the fact that, as an analyst following baseball, he finds our lack of activity boring.

The Twins may have had the quietest winter of any team in the majors in terms of departures and arrivals, particularly considering that one of the three players they've brought in was a Rule 5 pick (Jones) who may or may not stick.

Aren't the Twins usually one of the quietest teams every winter? I mean, given that they don't really participate in the free agent market? I continue to wait for people to stop being surprised that the Twins act the same way every year, and every year it works. I guess I'll have to keep on waiting.

Then again, given the way Ayala was run out of Queens by a pitchfork-toting mob, it makes a certain type of sense that he wound up with a team that itself seems to be laying low.

I wasn't huge on signing Ayala, either. But given the state of our bullpen he could be a valuable piece. And I don't know if operating by a philosophy of "well our entire team is under 25 years old and we expect them to keep getting better, so we're going to go ahead and let that happen without doing anything stupid to mess it up" should be considered "laying low." Maybe it should. Your call, Jay.

While the Twins lost relatively little this winter—a pair of lefty relievers and a light-hitting shortstop—it's not at all clear that when they spent, they spent wisely.

Leave it to a balanced analyst to bend "lost relatively little," usually a compliment, into an insult. This is exactly the kind of article that should be hidden behind BP's pay-me-and-enjoy-it-you-dumbasses subscription wall.

Crede's last two years have been marred by back woes, and he'll likely have to surpass his 75^th-percentile PECOTA performance (.258/.316/.436) in order to outdo the impact of the .283/.330/.399 combined showing the Twins got from last year's third basemen, Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, and Mike Lamb; the first two would have handled the job this year, while the latter is still on the payroll (although playing for Milwaukee) after being cut less than halfway through a two-year deal. As a one-year gamble, at least it's not a horribly expensive one.

In other words, this was a completely boneheaded move that never should have happened and the Twins have to get absurdly lucky in order for Crede to come close to matching last year's Buscher/Harris/Lamb platoon. What a huge waste of money! And why compare Crede's 2009 PECOTA projection with Buscher/Harris/Lamb's 2008 actual performance, rather than some combination of Buscher/Harris 2009 PECOTA projections? Don't want to open up the possibility that a) Buscher/Harris could be a viable option on a team which cannot possibly have any viable options, or b) that signing Crede might have been a good idea. Oh yeah, and ... it's a one year deal that isn't expensive, so it's not much of a risk. Either way, don't disregard my criticism!

What cost far more while making less sense was the need to spend $8.5 million to replace Everett with two years of Juan Castro Nick Punto, who will have to surpass last year's 90^th-percentile PECOTA to approach his 2.8 WARP;

Burn! Nick Punto is Juan Castro! Ha ha! I literally have no idea why Jaffe would talk about Punto's 2008 PECOTA projection, other than to point out that PECOTA was simply way off on that projection. And, um, I don't think that was his point. (It's true, though. PECOTA totally missed on Punto.) I mean, why not point out that PECOTA projects Punto's 2009 campaign to be execrable? As in, 0.5 WARP. And if he hits the 90th percentile, just 2.2 WARP. Seems like that would have been a more effective argument for Jaffe to make here.

What would have been considerably less effective is to point out that $4M per season is the going rate for a good utility player these days, most teams don't have one, and Punto is ours. So ... this signing is not a disaster. The only problem with it is that we seem to think Punto can be the shortstop, day in and day out, and that's just not what he does. That's not where his value lies. And that's not what we're paying him for. Not having a shortstop is a mistake -- but Punto is better than Everett.

as ever, nobody gives themselves a leg down (as opposed to a leg up) in competing for a division title like this franchise.

Whoa! I guess now is the time to pull out the big guns. After all, the Twins simply haven't competed for a division title this decade, and the reason is because they continue to fail to follow the tried-and-true SPEND-MORE-MONEY playbook. If only the Twins threw big money deals at aging home run hitters who can't play a position in the field, they might have been able to contend more than zero times in the last eight years.

What? You're telling me the last decade hasn't been an unmitigated disaster for this franchise? Well, then I think Mr Jaffe might just be going a little overboard in criticizing a team he (and his employers) don't particularly care for.

The drop from 88 wins last year to a projected 77 suggests a lot of regression, particularly in the rotation, not to mention the possible limitations of Joe Mauer due to back woes.

What would be quite a regression. After all, it's reasonable to suspect that a group of talented 23 year old players with athleticism and tools would start their decline at age 24. And it's pretty much unquestionable that replacing Livan Hernandez with Francisco Liriano was an unforgivable move; Liriano's career is over, whereas Livan's future is bright! Wait a minute ... did he say the rotation figures to get worse this year? I think he did.

Does that invalidate everything else he said about the Twins?

Not necessarily, I guess. But it sure doesn't help his credibility.

Dave Cameron Swings and Misses on Twins vs Mariners

2009-03-19T00:00:00-07:00

I know we've talked about it before, but Dave Cameron's look at the organizational rankings deserves another look, now that he's covered the Mariners (which is the team he roots for). He placed the Twins at #18, and the Mariners at #15.

Of the M's ownership, he attempted to claim that the meddling in the team's affairs including forcing them to sign Japanese players to lucrative extensions (due to the fact that they are Japanese, and the ownership is also Japanese) is a good thing. That Johjima's disaster of an extension is not a problem. That they "convinced Ichiro to sign a below market contract extension during the summer of 2007," when in reality they're paying him as a CF when he's really an RF (with zero power) and he's signed until he's 39 years old. If the Twins' ownership gets a C-, then the Mariners' certainly does not merit a B.

Both front offices are new, which makes his take on them interesting. His take on the Twins is basically "Terry Ryan did a good, if old fashioned, job ... but now he's gone and we don't know what Bill Smith is going to be like. Uncertainty is bad, therefore their front office situation is also bad." Conversely, the Mariners' situation is more along the lines of: "He's new, he's great, everything is looking up. Uncertainty is good, therefore the front office situation is fantastic!"

But by far the biggest problem in his analysis is major league talent. Of the Twins, he points out the entirety of our "core," saying: "Joe Mauer is an MVP candidate, Justin Morneau is a minor star." That's just about as pessimistic as you can possibly be about the Twins' major league roster, if you're looking at it from a forward-looking perspective. So, we're being pessimistic, right Cameron? Well, he talks about "a significant core of young talent - Felix Hernandez, Brandon Morrow, Jose Lopez, Jeff Clement, and Franklin Gutierrez are building blocks under team control for years to come."

Felix Hernandez looks like he's going to be a stud someday. Which is exactly how he looked at the start of 2008. And the start of 2007. And the start of 2006. He's definitely a great talent, but at some point he's going to have to put it together. Brandon Morrow is a talented young pitcher that they've been using out of the bullpen for the last two years, despite the fact that they ultimately want to use him as a starter; they're very excited about him, but he doesn't have much of a track record. He's only thrown 46.2 IP in the minors, including 23.1 at AAA (exactly half). And his ERA at AAA? It was 5.01 ... which is not exactly, you know, good.

Jose Lopez is a second baseman with a career OPS+ of a whopping 86. He put together his best season in 2008, with a .297/.322/.443 line that was worth a 104 OPS+. Jeff Clement is a "stud" catcher who's so bad behind the plate they're desperately trying to move him to 1B or DH. And he batted .227/.295/.360 last year for a 76 OPS+. The only way Clement is going to contribute positively in 2009 is if he doesn't get any at bats; which is likely given the aforementioned Johjima and his contract playing catcher, and Ken Griffey Jr playing DH. Frankling Gutierrez is renowned for his good outfield defense, and I expect that they're planning to play him in CF; too bad they don't really know what they're getting, since he's played just 29 games in CF in his entire career (they acquired him via trade from the Indians, where Grady Sizemore is entrenched in center). And also too bad that he can't hit. In 2008 he went .248/.307/.383, for an 80 OPS+ (his career OPS+ is 86). The only season in the minors in which he was able to hit adequately was his third consecutive year at AAA.

And this is the Mariners' solid core for the next several years? If that's their core, then to get the Twins' core you'd take Mauer and Morneau, and you'd add Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young, Alexi Casilla, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, and Francisco Liriano. Span is better than Gutierrez in the field, and can hit. Gomez is a lot better than Gutierrez (and everyone else) in the outfield, and looks like he might be able to hit (though he's already hitting just about as well as Gutierrez). If Clement is going to be considered a power hitter based on his minor league record, then Delmon Young (who is 2 years younger than Clement) should be considered a central piece of the future core of the team. Casilla is better in the field than Lopez at second base, is a year younger, and hits just about as well. In what sense can Lopez be considered a future star if Casilla isn't?

The Twins' rotation is filled with guys who are barely older than Hernandez and Morrow, and have demonstrated more success in the majors. If the Mariners have two young pitchers in their core, then the Twins have five. Oh yeah, and Cameron mentioned Liriano's health problems, and was pessimistic that he could get back onto the field and be effective. I think it's more than worth pointing out that Hernandez and Morrow have both had significant injury problems over the last couple of years.

It seems to me that the Twins' major league talent eclipses the Mariners' by a wide margin, and if the Mariners have any players in their future core, then the Twins have NINE, two of whom are legitimate superstars. (By which I mean, everyone knows their names, they were two of the top four MVP candidates this year, they're All Stars, batting champions, MVPs, home run derby champions. Those are superstars. Not an "MVP candidate" and a "minor star.")

I'm not saying, of course, that the Twins have nine members of their future core on the team right now. That would be absurd. But if these are the standards, then they do. And if that were the case, and we're evaluating teams in a forward looking manner, then there is no way the Twins don't have one of the best collections of young major league talent in the majors.

Cameron protects himself by saying this at the end of the article:

Oh, and one final note - I fully expect the “you’re a biased Mariner fan” claim to show up early and often in the comments section. Just so you’re aware, though, the historical complaint about my writing from Mariner fans have been that I’ve been too pessimistic about the team. So, while it will be nice to be accused of the opposite kind of bias for once, how about we try to rise above analytical laziness and discuss the organization’s strengths and weaknesses and get away from statements about the credibility of an author who writes something you might not agree with?

So now we're not allowed to claim that he's biased in favor of the Mariners. Right?

Well, I don't buy it. Given a more in-depth look at the situation, I think it's quite clear that Dave Cameron was wearing different colored glasses when he looked at these two teams.

We've already covered that we think the Twins are unreasonably low on this list, and in this article we've also demonstrated that the Mariners are unreasonably high. I just don't think his analysis holds up.

Mauer Update (sort of)

2009-03-18T00:00:00-07:00

Joe C reported today that there are "no red flags" in regards to Joe Mauer's back. I guess that is good news. The Doctors say it is nothing surgical (or at least Smith said the docs said this), so hopefully we can treat it and it goes away for good. I'm somewhat skeptical that it took this long to come out with this news. However, I won't jump to any conclusions. Until someone comes out and says "Joe will start the season on the DL", I'm going to believe he will be good to go.

That being said, if he isn't good to go, I hope they just bring Morales north and don't do something stupid. Thank God Pudge already signed with Houston, or that speculation would start to piss me off. Sign Pudge this, sign Pudge that, it pisses me off just thinking about.

Anyway, that is all. We will keep our eyes peeled for any Mauer news. Enjoy the first day of March Madness tomorrow. I'm sure we will all be productive at work these next two days.

Lupica Gives Some Love, Even if it's Backhanded and Ignorant

2009-03-18T00:00:00-07:00

On Tuesday the Twins got some rare love from a non-local writer; Mike Lupica of the NY Daily News wrote a standard spring training puff piece on something other than "Why is Derek Jeter So Sexy and Clutch ... and Also What is A-Rod's Deal?!" I believe he's re-used that headline about 8 times in the last three years. The point is, he's venturing a little out of his comfort zone, which is good to see.

An old Met named Ron Gardenhire, a scrub who would eventually become a great baseball manager

This is one of those turns of phrase that describe someone so well. He wasn't much of a player in his day, which is probably the source of his weaknesses as a manager: a soft spot for weak-hitting middle-infield-utility-players, a prejudice against players with natural talent (preferring players who "grind it out" over a long and unsuccessful career, mostly in the minors), etc. But given the Twins' perennial presence at the top of the division leaderboard, there's no doubting Gardy's prowess as a manager. (Although I'd say "great" might be pushing it. Until we win a World Series or two.)

Gardenhire was talking about his division, the Central, and talking about how the Indians have reloaded and how he still doesn't know how anybody ever gets through the Tigers' batting order and when you ask him about his own team he says, "If we stay healthy, we're going to be there."

On paper, sure, the Tigers have a strong lineup. But the thing is that too many people make the mistake of seeing names rather than players. And the Tigers are old. And beyond that, is it possible that Miguel Cabrera is over the hill? (They paid him huge money because he hit like a DH but played 3B ... and then discovered he was so awful at 3B they had to move him to 1B ... and then he went back to hitting like a 3B. If I were in Detroit, I'd be pissed about that contract. Look at it this way: Is Miguel Cabrera twice as valuable as Justin Morneau? What if you didn't know their names and just looked at their numbers?)

And he's right about the Indians, of course. Because they're just like the Twins, except their farm system is built hitting-first vs the Twins' pitching-first philosophy.* A guy like Gardy cannot possibly miss the Indians, and probably overrates them, due to their Twins-like ability to contend despite annual offseason disappointment.

* Did I just give a major hint as to the difference in philosophy between the two most consistently efficient baseball teams in the league. Yes. Yes I did. I still hope to write about that soon.

Gardenhire comes out of a different division than the Yankees and Red Sox, not the Central as much as the baseball division that doesn't have their money and never will. Somehow the Twins, with their tough, old-school manager, always hang tough. Somehow a team from baseball's low-rent district always aims high.

Now this, I take exception to. Baseball's low-rent district? Seriously? Is that just a playful shot at the midwest, or is Lupica being ignorant?

For one thing, the AL Central has 4 of the top 11 winningest teams over the last 3 years. We are the only division that can say that. So ... winning more games than the other divisions. Doesn't sound low-rent to me. But let's look at dollars, because that's all the New Yorkers understand.

Here are the combined divisional averages over the last three years:

AL East: 574.57 (2 in top 10) (avg $114.914) AL Central: 407.69 (2 in top 10) (avg $81.54) AL West: 372.77 (2 in top 10) (avg $93.19) NL East: 406.32 (2 in top 10) (avg $81.26) NL Central: 514.12 (1 in top 10) (avg $85.69) NL West: 420.31 (1 in top 10) (avg $84.06)

Obviously the AL East is the most expensive division. The Yankees and Red Sox play there, and they have free global publicity from Red Sox Nation ESPN. And the Orioles aren't exactly thrifty with their cash.

The other division with a New York Team? Well, it's the only division in baseball that averages less payroll per team than the AL Central. Sure doesn't sound like the AL Central is the low-rent division, right? Also, averaged out over three years, the difference between $81.26M, $81.54M, $84.06M, and $85.59M is just not that big. In fact, these salaries represent the average MLB payroll, and they're the bottom four divisions.

And the AL Central has two teams in the top ten in payroll. Which is tied for first along with the AL East, AL West, and NL East. If the AL Central were truly the low-rent division, surely they wouldn't have as many Top 10 Payrolls as the vaunted super-spenders of the AL East and NL East? Right?

The AL Central has 4 of the best 10 teams in baseball (based on winning baseball games, rather than the opinions of ESPN writers). The AL Central spends money in line with the rest of the league, rather than significantly below some kind of budget watermark.

Even when a New York writer takes it upon himself to try to compliment Gardy and the Twins, he can't help but demonstrate a complete lack of knowledge of how the league works outside the Yankees / Red Sox rivalry. And I think that's sad.

FanGraphs Organizational Rankings

2009-03-17T00:00:00-07:00

Over the past few weeks FanGraphs has been ranking every organization based on front office, ownership, major league talent, and minor league talent. The Twins ranked 18thoverall. We received a C- in ownership, a B- in front office, a B- in major league talent, and a C+ in minor league talent. I personally think that each of thses grades is a notch too low.

The ownership, while very, very cheap, hasn't gotten in the way. Many teams have spent roughly the same amount as the Twins over the years, but haven't performed as well due to an overbearing owner.

The front office probably deserves the grade it got. Maybe it should have a B instead of a B-. We draft and scout better than almost anyone in the game, but our free agent signings have left a lot to be desired.

The one that irks me the most is the major league talent. A B-? We have an all-star closer, and all-star catcher, an all-star starting pitcher, and an all-star/MVP first baseman. How is that roughly average? Calling Morneau a "minor" star is borderline insulting. Just because he plays in Minnesota and is from Canada doesn't make him a minor star. He is a HR derby champ, an MVP and an all-star. We have one of the best young pitching staffs in the game, does "major league talent" equal "star power" thats the way it seems. He failed to even mention Kevin Slowey or Scott Baker, who were both very good starters last year on a team that nearly made the playoffs. I would chalk this up to east-coast bias, but Dave Cameron is from Seattle. Maybe he is bitter we stuck him with Carlos Silva or something.

The only teams ranked behind us are: Nationals, Marlins, Astros, Royals, Pirates, Padres, Reds, Rockies, Tigers, Cardinals, Blue Jays and Giants. I think we have a better organization than the White Sox. While they have better international scouting, and they spend more money I would hardly say they are top to bottom a better run organization. Hopefully they come in at around 17 or so. Because they really aren't that much better than the Twins. The Mariners should be ranked pretty low too. Until the hiring of a new front office staff a few months ago, they were a total mess. They have done some good things this offseason, but even though this is a forward looking exercise, they will be haunted by the recent bad decisions that have been made. More specifically Carlos Silva and jarrod washburn.

I also don't think these rankings give enough credit for not making moves. How many times have we cheered for Bill Smith when he passed on a certain player. Eric Gange or someone of the like.

Cameron also doesn't give enough credit to our minor league system. While it isn't stocked with studs like other teams. We have many solid players who are close to contributing to the majors.

Going back to the ownership grade. Now that carl is gone, Jim seems very willing to extend our young homegrown players, whom we had previously refused to pay. Jim was behind the Morneau and Cuddyer contracts, Scott Baker was just signed a few weeks ago. If this truly is a "forward thinking exercise" why does it seem like our low ownership grade is based on the reign of a man who has been dead for several months? Jim has shown his willingness to spend on player who can contribute for the life of their contract. If "good ownership" means giving a huge contract to a player who will be bad for more than half of it, then I don't want good ownership.

What do you guys think of the Twins grades and overall ranking?

Slowey is the Model of How To Develop a Pitcher

2009-03-16T00:00:00-07:00

Just a quick post here ... I was reading the take on the Twins' team health report from Baseball Prospectus and came across this gem:

If I were asked to point to a player as a model of "how to develop a pitcher," then Slowey is one that would come to mind. Just look at how he has progressed, and how all of his stats seem to follow. He's going to be huge this year.

It's just great to read lines like that about one of the young pitchers we're counting on for a big year.

Model Franchises, The Beasts of the AL Central

2009-03-15T00:00:00-07:00

In the last couple of weeks, people have been looking intently at payroll efficiency, or how much a team spends per win. Unless you have unlimited funds (see: Yankees, Red Sox), it is virtually impossible to be consistently competitive unless you can sustainably keep the payroll from growing out of control as you climb the wins rankings.

One interesting way to measure a franchise's payroll efficiency is the concept of marginal dollars per marginal wins, from Baseball Prospectus. Take it away, Steven Goldman:

In 2002, Baseball Prospectus's Doug Pappas proposed the concept of marginal dollars per marginal wins. Pappas suggested that a team playing entirely replacement-level players would win about 30 percent of its games, or 48.6 wins in a 162-game season. This team would be paid the major league minimum ($390,000 in 2008) and was assumed to have a 25-man roster, plus three players on the disabled list. In 2008, that team's payroll would have been $10,920,000. Every dollar a team spends over that minimum is more than it "has" to, but those marginal dollars do also earn the team marginal wins—victories they would not have earned had they only spent the minimum. The question is, how efficiently did the teams spend to get those extra wins?

So there is an absolute minimum a baseball team can pay for its team, around $11M. And statistically speaking, you'd have about a 48-49 win team for that amount. Any amount you spend above the minimum (ideally) increases your team's win total, and that's what we want to look at.

Goldman then looks at the marginal dollars per marginal wins ratios for all teams in 2008. The Twins came up with the third-lowest value in the league (where lower is more efficient), with a ratio of $1.1M per marginal win. They were behind the Marlins at $0.3M/MW, and the Rays at $0.68M/MW.

He immediately dismisses the Marlins' accomplishment: "(The Marlins were even more efficient than the Rays, posting a .522 winning percentage with a payroll of just under $22 million, but this was more a fluke event than an item for future study.)" And frankly, I don't have a problem with that. No team should ever model itself after the way the Marlins are run. They're a pox on the league, and are going to be as long as Jeffrey Loria owns them.

He's high on the Rays, apparently believing that they demonstrated "intelligent drafting and strong farm system production [...] augmented with intelligently spent free-agent dollars," and that their method is one to be admired. Although he does acknowledge that it remains to be seen if this method will continue to be successful and efficient as the years pass and their current crop of players shoot up the salary scale.

Goldman's analysis only touches on the Twins in comparing them to their similarly (but slightly less) efficient AL Central rival, the Indians.

Over the last three years, the AL Central rival Cleveland and Minnesota teams have averaged about $67 million in payroll each, while averaging 85 and 88 wins per team, respectively. This is even more impressive in the light of the bad contracts both teams have to live with. In Cleveland’s case, that would be the four-year, $57 million contract the team signed with designated hitter Travis Hafner in July of 2007, one which cost them $8.05 million last season and will ding them for $11.5 million this year. The Twins have made smaller-scale errors, anchoring themselves to replaceable talents like Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel through 2010 for a combined total of $22.1 million, not counting the price of 2011 options for both players. The Twins will also be paying $3.1 million to Milwaukee Brewer Mike Lamb this year.

I'm not going to get too snarky about this, nor am I going to defend the Cuddyer/Kubel contracts. I feel I've done that enough. I'm just going to go ahead and point out that in no way is this an examination of how the Twins and Indians have been able to build successful franchises on a small payroll. It is, in fact, the opposite in that he provides the only evidence that exists to show that the Twins and Indians are poorly run, without offering any insight into what they've done right. And clearly both teams have done something right.

Seriously, in what sense are the Twins and Indians not exactly the model by which every small- and mid-market team should build their organization? Why is it that whenever someone looks into payroll efficiency the numbers tell them "The Twins and Indians are really efficient at this," and their subsequent analysis says "The AL East is the greatest!"

Maybe I'll get to that at a later date. Moving along.

But to be honest, looking just at last year is misleading at best. Anything can happen in one season -- a team can have a big breakout season or luck can fall their way and they can look like a really efficiently-run franchise when in fact you may not want to model your organization after them based on a multi-year study. If only someone would look at payroll efficiency over a period of multiple years ...

Enter Rich Lederer, at Baseball Analysts, who looked into MLB Payroll Efficiency, 2006-2008 for us. He looked at essentially the same data, but averaged it out over three seasons, which minimizes the effects a breakout (or collapse) has on the organization's overall efficiency rating. (See the 2008 Mariners vs the 2006-2008 Mariners. Seattle's 2008 was a truly terrible season, but it was probably an outlier. While they did run the franchise poorly enough to allow that to happen, 2008 is not almost certainly not indicative of a typical season for them.)

Let's take a look at his data:

As you can see from the chart, the Twins are sixth overall in wins over the last three years, and are the only team in the top 7 with an average payroll under $100M. In fact, the Twins' payroll is the lowest among the top 12 winningest teams in baseball.

By any measure, that's impressive. Another interesting finding that I did not expect to see is the overall quality of the AL Central; 4 of the top 11 winningest teams are from the Central. (Which four? If you guessed "Everyone but the Royals, duh," you're right on.) That's the most of any division, obviously. The AL East has 3 in the top 12, the NL East has 2, and the AL West, NL West, and NL Central have 1 each. This does not explain why the AL Central gets no national respect and is consistently considered one of the weaker divisions in the sport.

Looking at this chart, I think you can only call three teams consistently efficient: the Twins, Indians, and Blue Jays. These are the only teams in baseball that have averaged 85+ wins with average-or-under payrolls. In fact, these are the only teams in baseball that have averaged 83+ wins for under $100M per year.

Compared to the Twins' $1.1M/MW value for 2008, they have a $1.4M/MW efficiency ratio for the 2006-2008 period. (The reason the ratio improved in 2008 was because the payroll dropped to $56M and we actually improved. Just like I said we would at the beginning of the season, despite losing Santana and Hunter. Just wanted to point that out so all the pessimists know what's up.)

For the overall period, the Rays' M$/MW ratio is not 0.6, but is instead 1.1; while that value is still extremely impressive, what's less impressive is where they rank on the most-winningest list. 25th. Over the last three seasons, the Rays have won the 25th most games in the league.

Looking forward, the Rays are obviously in great position to win games and move up on the wins list. As that happens, though, they will obviously have to pay more as their players move up the salary scale and hit arbitration. It remains to be seen how willing they'll be to increase their payroll to sustainable levels, and how efficient they can stay as they inevitably have to pay more and/or replace players. I'm not here to take anything away from the Rays. But there is no doubt in my mind that, looking backwards, the Rays' method of building a winning team by stockpiling high draft picks (through a devious strategy of being awful for a decade) is not the way you should want to model your franchise.

Instead, the model franchises are the beasts of the AL Central, the Twins and Indians, who have shown an ability to be consistently successful with consistently low payrolls. The teams at the bottom of this chart should be looking to Minnesota and Cleveland for advice, rather than the Rays, Rockies, or any other team.

Sometime soon, I think I'll look into the successful models of the Twins and Indians. For now, though, it's enough to know that these franchises have earned considerably more respect than they get. Given that averaging just 83 wins per year costs other teams upwards of $100M, winning more than that for under $70M is extremely unusual and impressive.

Saturday Morning Mauer Updates

2009-03-14T00:00:00-07:00

Mauer's health is clearly becoming a major national issue, as Buster Olney has written about him for the second consecutive day. There's really nothing new until the results of his second opinion today in Baltimore go public. But there are a few interesting bits of information here.

The first is that Charley Walters has printed some unsubstantiated information that would be quite promising if it's true:

The sore back that has kept Twins catcher Joe Mauer from playing in spring training games could put contract extension talks on hold for the all-star and two-time batting champion, who can become a free agent after the 2010 season. Extension talks were to have begun soon in Fort Myers, Fla. Mauer's contract status likely won't be affected, though, if he's playing well in 2010.

I don't believe I'd read anywhere that contract talks were actually expected to start this spring -- just that everyone desperately wants them to. Either Walters is jumping the gun on some wishful thinking here, or he's got better information than everyone else. Either way, given Mauer's injury and the fact that the Twins aren't about to give a long-term extension to a currently-injured player (nor would that player sign a discounted extension before getting the opportunity to play and drive his price up), it's immaterial.

So we're probably going to have to wait until next winter to sign Mauer to his big extension.

And the second tidbit we got from Olney is Cuddyer's thoughts on Mauer and his value to the team:

Mauer is extremely important to us. Not only because he is a great hitter who compliments our lineup like nobody else can, but because of the force that he is behind the plate. Here with the Twins, we have to put a lot of emphasis on keeping runners from crossing the plate. That means not allowing them to get into scoring position, and with him behind the plate, runners tend to stay at their respective base and not get that urge to steal. Which in turn keeps teams from scoring easily. … As far as our concern level, obviously we still have some time this spring, but the days are getting less and less, so it is definitely a concern for us. In that same sense, we all trust Joe to do what he needs to do to get ready because we need him healthy, especially at the position he plays.

Yesterday I -- shall we say -- criticized Gardy for not being particularly articulate when describing Mauer's value to the team. Olney must not have been satisfied either, and decided to seek out a better quote from a more articulate guy connected to the team. And, as usual, Cuddyer doesn't disappoint.

Focusing on Mauer's ability to control the running game probably understates Mauer's overall value to the team, and overstates the value of preventing steals for a team filled with homer-prone pitchers. (Stealing second makes it easier to score -- but if the hitter puts one over the fence it doesn't really matter, does it?) But there's no doubt that Cuddyer's response is more thought out than Gardy's was.

But it's also clear that the level of concern over Mauer's health is increasing rapidly as Opening Day starts to loom closer. And it leaves me thinking I might have to adjust my blase "he's fine, nothing to worry about" attitude.

I'll keep my eyes open for updates. Watch this space -- and the #firegardy Twitter feed at the top of the page -- for updates.

Pre-game Trivialities

2009-03-14T00:00:00-07:00

Time for an update on some trivialities before the game today.

First, it seems Punto's injury may not have been as serious as I initially feared. I'm still not happy about it, but at the very least we probably won't be missing Punto much longer. He's able to take some light swings and could return to action in a few days. Good news.

Blackburn is apparently still not ready to start, and so Humber's getting his start instead. I wonder if pitching at the beginning of the game will make a difference for Humber. Some guys need a while to get used to coming out of the bullpen and don't perform as well if they're not starting. Maybe Humber is one of those guys right now -- so hopefully he looks good on Monday.

Denard Span hasn't gotten many hits -- his average is just .107 -- but there's no reason to be worried. For one, this is spring training, and it's meaningless. (Buscher and Young aren't really going to hit .500 this year, in case you were wondering.) Secondly, he's still been drawing walks; he has a team-leading 4 walks, and LEN3 passes along info that he was called out on a 3-2 count twice when the ball was out of the zone. (I do not know if this is true, but I believe it.)

Span's timing is off, or he isn't making good contact, or he's getting unlucky on balls in play (or some combination, or whatever, it could be anything), but his eye is still working fine and he is maintaining his good discipline despite a temporary lack of hits.

This is what people mean when they say a player can still have value without a good batting average, or that a player's value is contingent on a high batting average. Plate discipline and the ability to draw walks is less variable than batting average, and is closer to a consistent "skill" rather than "luck," which is a big part of a player's BABIP. If Span were batting .107 with no walks, it'd be time to worry -- that'd be evidence that he might be regressing. But no. Span's OPS could very well be disconnected from his batting average, much like a guy like Grady Sizemore (although Span has quite a bit less power). So if Span's batting average this season drops to .250 or something, it doesn't necessarily mean he had a bad season.

Finally, I particularly like this line from LEN3:

Interesting lineup today. You replace Gomez with Span, Mauer for Crede, Kubel for Young, Crede for Harris, Young for Butera and Punto for Tolbert and you might just have your Opening Day lineup.

Really? So this is pretty much the Opening Day lineup, if you just make these six changes? Doesn't that make it extremely close to absolutely nothing like the Opening Day lineup? I'm probably the only person who finds that amusing. Oh well.

Rambling on About Mauer

2009-03-13T00:00:00-07:00

I don't think the importance of Mauer to the Twins would come as a surprise to anyone around here, what with the mounting worry that his injury is worse than we've been told and we'll be Mauer-less at the start of the season. But it's finally trickled around to ESPN, where it's apparently Twins Day in Buster Olney's world.

As a small-market club, the Twins don't have a lot of veteran stars, and Mauer might be the best player in the majors at his position -- an MVP candidate, as Gardenhire said.

It's true that the Twins don't have a lot of veteran stars. But I'd venture to say it's not because we're a small market club ... for the following reasons:

The Twins are not a small market club. They have the 14th largest media market in MLB, which puts them squarely in the "mid-market" classification.
The Twins have one position player who might start who's 30 years old (Cuddyer). The entire rotation is 27 or under. Can't have veteran stars without veterans.
How many teams, small- mid- or large-market, have "a lot of veteran stars" on the roster? A couple?

And why clarify that Gardenhire called Mauer an MVP candidate? He finished 4th in the MVP voting last year. He was an MVP candidate.

But how important is Mauer? Like Olney, let's have Gardy tell us:

"You're talking about a guy who helped turn a pitching staff into a pretty good group," Gardenhire continued. "Not to mention that he's a batting champion. Your third hitter. Can we list more than that? So yeah, he's pretty important."

Oh Gardy. So articulate.

First, I suppose Mauer could have helped turn the pitching staff into a pretty good group. He probably hasn't hurt. There's really no way to measure this, anyway. But in the interest of having fun, let's look at the team ERA+ over the years. Since 2001, the Twins pitching staff has yielded ERA+ numbers of: 101, 108, 103, 117, 119, 113, 104, 97.

That jump from 103 to 117 coincided with Mauer's rookie season. But he only played 35 games. I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that he wasn't the biggest catalyst in the improvement of the pitching staff. Instead, I'd pin that on Santana's 182, Radke's 136, Nathan's 292, Crain's 236 ERA+ that year. Can anyone really say that breakout 2004 campaigns from Santana, Nathan, and Crain happened because Mauer played 35 games?

And if Mauer is the reason that the pitching staff got good ... well, what happened in 2007 and 2008?* Should he take some blame for the precipitous drop in the team's pitching acumen? Or should it be be put on the shoulders of Boof (85), ROrtiz (84), and Ponson (63) in 2007 and Livan (74), Boof (68), Rincon (66), Bass (83), and Guerrer (78) in 2008? It's possible Mauer forgot how to manage a pitching staff and/or became a big jerk after winning his first batting title. But I don't think it's all that likely. I'd put it more on the pitchers.**

* Seriously, the Twins pitching staff was below average in 2008. At least when it comes to ERA. I'd guess a huge chunk of that is due to defensive declines. Largely from Delmon in LF, Harris at SS/2B, and Buscher at 3B. If we tighten up the defense just enough to get the team ERA+ back into the 105 range, the pitching staff will look good again.

** Also the position players. See above.

I, um, got sidetracked a little bit there. Onwards, then, to ... Gardy's point #2! Mauer is a batting champion. Yes. A two time batting champion. This is valuable to a team, no doubt. But coming in second both years would have been pretty much exactly as valuable to the team (and he barely beat Jeter in 2006 and barely beat Pedroia in 2008, so he "almost" has zero batting titles, for what that's worth ... which, in the United States of Boston and New York, is a lot, considering that Jeter and Pedroia actually play for real teams and Mauer just plays for the Twins). But I really have no quibble with Gardy here. Mauer can hit. That's a good thing.

Point number three. Mauer bats third in the lineup. This really has no bearing on Mauer's value to the team one way or the other. He's only batting third because Gardy's stuck in 1950, when you constructed your lineup based on "speed in the top two spots, highest batting average in the three hole, RBI Guys at 4 & 5, and then stick the other losers where you feel like they'll fit and stay happy, and never change the order around or guys will get confused and uppity and refuse to play." Mauer should be our #2 hitter. But it has exactly zero bearing on his actual value to the team.* He's still the same player.

* Actually, I contend that Mauer would be MORE valuable as a #2 hitter. He'd be an OBP player in an OBP position, and he'd get 50 more plate appearances over the course of the season. That's more RBI opportunities for Morneau and whatever right handed bat we slide into #3. Given that scoring runs is the goal, I'd say that sounds more valuable. Also, not the point.

Okay, that was three things. 100% of Gardy's reasons why Mauer is valuable. Two of them are meaningless -- ie, have no bearing on Mauer's value one way or the other. The third (or in this case, second) is so painfully obvious that I can't believe I'm even talking about it. "Why is Mauer valuable to your team?" "He's a good hitter, Kent." Ah. I would never have thought of that.

Now that I've distracted you (at least for a little while) from the pain of realizing that Mauer might be injured ... it's time for reality to come crashing down on you! I am the destroyer of worlds, and all hope is lost!*

Mike Redmond is a respected backup who's highly valued by the Twins, but Gardenhire does not see the 37-year-old as an option as an everyday catcher. "I don't think he's built for that," Gardenhire said. "I think he's built for his role, and we all understand that pretty well, and I think he does, too. Would he try? Absolutely he would. But I don't think that's his role on this team."

* All hope is not really lost. And I have destroyed no worlds. I just thought that went really well at the end of that paragraph. I may or may not be right about that, but it's too late now to go back and change it. So we're just going to go with it.

Yeah, I like Redmond too. But I think Gardy's right about this one. He's not really a viable everyday player any more. And this might be his last year in the majors before he takes a year or two off to fish, or hunt, or look like Bruce Willis whenever he's wearing a helmet, or whatever it is that retired Mike Redmonds do when they retire. And then after that he'll hopefully come back to the Twins organization and be a coach at some level. That's all a roundabout way of saying that, no, Redmond is not going to be a longterm replacement for Mauer this season. Or ever.

The Twins do have a couple of promising catching prospects in their system. Jose Morales, 26, played in Triple-A last year and hit .315 in 54 games. The Twins are excited by what they see in 21-year-old Wilson Ramos, who slammed 13 homers and hit .288 in Class A last year.

Morales might be ready to stand in for a month or two, and he does have a 1.000 career average in the majors. He's probably the best option in case Mauer's not available. But did you know that Morales is older than Mauer?! I had no idea. I just naturally assumed he was a couple years younger. This is a huge problem for Morales. The best thing he can hope for is that he gets a month or two this year, does really well, and then gets traded to a team that might use him before he gets old and broken.* Ramos is still young and in A ball ... he should not be in the majors this year. It's out of the question.

* I am not considering, at this time, the possibility that Mauer may be gone in 2011. Today is dark enough without that nightmare to think about. Thanks for bringing it up, by the way.

And, so, where were we? Nowhere new, I suppose. We're still waiting on new about Mauer. We still can do nothing but hope for the best.

But Mauer probably ranks somewhere among the game's five players most important to their respective teams, and the Twins badly need some good news about his condition as they prepare for what should be an extremely competitive race in the AL Central.

I think the AL Central race will be tight whether we have Mauer for a full season or for just 4-5 months. But he very well could be the difference between coming out on top ... or coming up short.

I'll try to keep everyone posted on all the minor trivialities in the ongoing Mauer Injury Saga 2009 (#1). Also the major trivialities, in case you were wondering if I'd skip those.*

* But seriously. Did you even read this article? Is it even remotely believeable that I'd skip some triviality, minor or major? Exactly.

Cordero Goes, Twins Place Hope in Crain

2009-03-13T00:00:00-07:00

Last night one of the last bullpen arms on the market signed. The Twins had been looking at Chad Cordero, coming off shoulder surgery last summer, but have decided not to pursue him as he's now signed a minor league contract with the Mariners.

Given the fact that he apparently hasn't been able to get his fastball past 80 MPH yet (and his entire value back when he was a good closer was his velocity), this is probably a good non-move by the Twins. And it says a lot about the Mariners' situation that they'd be willing to take a shot on a fastballs-only pitcher with an 80 MPH fastball.

Instead, the Twins are hoping that Jesse Crain can grab the bull by the horns and fill the role of main setup man. He's developed a new pitch (the slurve) that apparently totally baffled the Italians in the WBC:

Crain struck out all four batters he faced in his lone appearance against Italy, with each taking a called third strike. All four were caught staring at Crain's new pitch, a curveball and slider hybrid he calls a "slurve."

I'd personally prefer swinging strikeouts, but a strikeout is a strikeout, I guess. Even against Italy.

The biggest advantage Rick Anderson sees is that it's a significant change in speeds from a guy who really used nothing but his fastball in the past. His fastball sits at 95 MPH, while the new slurve goes 82-84 MPH. If he can locate it effectively, the slurve combines a significant change in speed with unusual movement, and could make Crain a lot more effective.

We'll see. I'm just hoping he's gotten rid of his tell.

The Trouble With Signing Twins-Killers

2009-03-12T00:00:00-07:00

Last year the Twins traded for Craig Monroe, operating under the thought that since he'd been a Twins-killer for his entire career, he'd do well in the Metrodome and be a viable right handed power bat in our lineup, as an OF/DH type.

In his career, he's his 13 HR against the Twins (during the regular season). That's second of all teams in baseball (he's hit 20 against the Royals). Last year with the Twins, he hit 8 homers, which is the fewest he'd hit in a season since 2002, when he hit just 1 HR in all of 13 games played. Needless to say, it was a precipitous dropoff, and not what the Twins thought they were getting.

And that's the problem with signing someone who does really well against you -- once he's on your team, he doesn't get to face you any more, so you don't get that production. And the Twins didn't.

So now he's been mercifully cut loose, and (less mercifully) went to the Pirates. And demonstrated that his skills didn't actually disappear when he came to the Twins -- he just needs to face Twins pitching. Today, he hit 3 home runs against the Twins (two against Baker).

So good for Monroe, I guess.

The lesson to be learned, I think, is that we should stop focusing on guys who do well against us.

(Also, thanks a lot, Monroe. Enjoy the millions of dollars.)

Punto Injured in WBC

2009-03-12T00:00:00-07:00

So, it's been pretty lightly reported that Punto was hit in the elbow by a pitch, while playing for Italy during the WBC. He's now back with the Twins, and is getting X-rays on the elbow to check it out. He'd already had them taken after the fateful game in Toronto, but now the swelling and pain is back so they're checking it out again.

Nonetheless, Punto said he had an excellent time playing in the WBC, even better than he expected.

Oh, well that's good then. The Twins are, after all, paying Punto $4M per season so he can go out and have lots of fun playing for other teams that are not the Twins and then getting hurt while doing it.

Now everyone knows I'm not the biggest Punto fan in the world, but he's a valuable player on our team* and I really don't want to see that wasted by his participation in a futile effort to help Italy win a ballgame. Seriously, Italy? They're so bad they think having Nick Punto as a starting shortstop is a good thing. Oh, wait. Scratch that last bit.

* Or, as Brian Cashman would say, he's an asset that we want to get our money's worth out of. We need to protect our assets!

Hopefully all is well with Punto's elbow, and we don't have to see too much of Tolbert and Machado doing their best Punto impressions.

And I continue to be opposed to any Twins players playing in the WBC. Just imagine if this were someone you cared about. Like Nathan, or Morneau.

New Fire Gardy Twitter Features

2009-03-12T00:00:00-07:00

Okay, on the heels of the new #firegardy Twitter feed showing up at the top of the site, we have a new toy to roll out to everyone out there.

Because we like to use the comments sections for discussing things, it's useful to know when someone has posted a new comment. I've been following the Comments RSS feed for a while, but that doesn't get updated frequently enough for it to be useful as a realtime comment notifier. You know what would be useful as a realtime comment notifier? If you guessed Twitter, you're 100% right.

So that's why I'm here to announce the firegardy Twitter account! Once you've signed up for Twitter, you just "follow" the firegardy user (by hitting the "Follow" button on his page once you're logged in), and his updates will come straight to you.

For now, firegardy will tweet every time someone leaves a comment. Later we might add posts, or other stuff. Rest assured, however, that this will not be used as a venue for spam. I hate that crap, and I won't have any part in it. The firegardy tweets are just for useful firegardy-related information.

I'm already finding it useful, and I hope you will too.

Enjoy ... and go Twins!

Introducing the #firegardy Twitter Feed

2009-03-11T00:00:00-07:00

Here at Fire Gardy, we like to try new things. Sometimes those things are cool and useful, and sometimes they're useless and crappy, and sometimes nobody notices or cares. I don't know which one of those this newest thing will be, but I feel like it's worth at least pointing out so you can make that decision for yourself.

Introducing the #firegardy Twitter feed! I don't know if you've noticed the seemingly random bits of text that are now showing up at the top of the page (beneath the big logo), but those are called "tweets," and they're hosted by Twitter. I installed that little program yesterday, and what it does is go out to Twitter and ask for all the tweets with "#firegardy" in them somewhere, and if so, prints the most recent five of them right here on our site.

This is a way for me or FunBobby to toss something up quickly that's not worth a full post but we feel should be part of the Fire Gardy conversation. And it's also another way for you to join the Fire Gardy conversation. And you can post from anywhere (except, somewhat ironically, directly from our site). For example, I do many of my posts from my iPhone, and many more from Twitter itself, and more still from programs installed on my various computers.

I don't know exactly where the #firegardy Twitter feed is going to go. Ideally we can use it to have ongoing in-game conversations that will be recorded for (fleeting) posterity right at the top of the page. And I fully encourage everyone to join in the fun by signing up for Twitter and throwing up some #firegardy posts.

(And as an added note, I know that Joe Mauer is trying Twitter out, and Morneau has a PR firm running an account for him. If we could somehow convince Mauer to participate in The Newest Feature of the Bloggingest Blog of Blogs, it would be quite thrilling. So if you see him, let him know.)

Oh, and one last thing. Eat your heart out Gleeman.

Uh Oh.....

2009-03-10T00:00:00-07:00

Well Joe Mauer is getting an MRI, or MRA or some such thing, on his back and stomach area to determine why he hasn't full recovered from offseason kidney surgery. I wasn't worried about Mauer at all, until. Maybe its because the keeper deadline in my fantasy baseball league was last week and Mauer is one of my keepers.

Joe has always been a slow starter. Which should come as no surprise, my guess is the wear and tear a major league catcher (who played 146 games and set a career high in plate appearance) takes during the season causes him to need a little more recovery time. I also don't want to run around saying the sky is falling just because Mauer his "discomfort". It wasn't even described as pain. Hopefully the MRI comes back negative (or positive depending on how you look at it). I think the most difficult part of all of this is not knowing what is wrong with him. If we knew what the problem is, we would know how to treat it, and get Joe back on the field quicker. Everyone on the Internet seems to be putting together lineups in case Mauer has to miss the start of the season. I do not want to do that. I still believe Joe won't miss any time, I also refuse to believe he is "injury-prone". He isn't.

Gagne Goes Down, Bill Smith and I Breathe Sigh of Relief

2009-03-09T00:00:00-07:00

When Eric Gagne signed with the Brewers for up to $1.5M with incentives after receiving a guaranteed offer of $3M from the Twins, I have to admit I was pretty incensed. Which you probably noticed if you read that article.

Well, it turns out that the Twins were almost certainly right to pull that offer and lucky that Gagne didn't eagerly jump on it. (Boras' genius is waiting for better offers and pushing up the price. His failing is that he needs to realize when he's selling a lemon and as soon as an offer comes in that he knows is well above what his product is worth, and immediately take the offer, get it signed, and laugh.)

It turns out that Gagne has The Jesse Crain Special, a torn labrum and rotator cuff, and will probably need season-ending shoulder surgery. He was released by the Brewers on Sunday and won't be getting that $1.5M he would have gotten had he made the team.

Is this the end for Gagne? Maybe. He'll probably try to go somewhere next year, and some GM that's been asleep at the wheel for the last five years will probably sign him. Thankfully, that almost certainly won't be the Twins.

Start of WBC Means Nathan is Back and Healthy: Called It!

2009-03-08T00:00:00-08:00

Joe Nathan claimed injury a bit ago and pulled out of Team USA. At the time, the argument was whether we had to worry about his shoulder this season versus whether he just wanted an excuse to get out of the WBC. Well, I think we now have our answer.

The day after Team USA made its tournament debut with a win over Team Canada, Joe Nathan returned to the mound in a spring training game, tossing a perfect inning while striking out Aubrey Huff and Ty Wigginton (two legitimate MLB regulars). And, perhaps more importantly, said this afterwards:

“Everything went as good as it could,” Nathan said. “No discomfort at all. More importantly, I didn’t really think about it out there. I think we can probably put this behind us now and move forward and get into a little rhythm here.”

I don't know if the issue is fully "closed" now, but it's certainly close. The "soreness" he was allegedly feeling in a particular joint in his shoulder has miraculously disappeared immediately after the WBC started, and now he can get back to pitching for the Twins and getting ready for the season.

Raise your hand if you called this one.

Dustin Martin Trying to Reward Twins for Castillo Trade

2009-03-08T00:00:00-08:00

In the summer of 2007, the Twins traded away Luis Castillo to the Mets for what seemed at the time to be an underwhelming haul of prospects. Players and fans alike were angry that the Twins would do that, seemingly throwing away a good thing for nothing, and giving up on the season.

It took Alexi Casilla a little longer than expected to click in the majors and replace Castillo's production, which made the move look worse in the summer of 2007. But in 2008, Castillo was worth just 0.5 Value Wins above replacement, while Casilla was worth +1.2 wins. (Or, in Baseball Prospectus' terms, Castillo's WARP was 0.0 while Casilla's was 0.6.)

Meanwhile, Dustin Martin was part of the take from the Castillo trade, and has turned out to be a pretty decent prospect. His CF defense is apparently good enough to play, and he can hit. Last year at AA he hit .290/.355/.447 with 10 HR and 34 2B and 22 SB. The only black mark on his record is that he strikes out too often -- 125 K's to 49 BB's in 133 games played. If he can improve that K/BB a little bit, he could be something.

Meanwhile, he's hitting very well in his first taste of big league camp, batting .583 so far in spring training. The few times I've been able to see him play, I've been struck by his Ichiro-like swing that looks like it should get him a high contact rate, and the ball seems to leap off his bat. And he's fast on the basepaths.

He'll start this year in Rochester, biding his time until two of our outfielders go down (and maybe Pridie also). He's got a lot of guys in front of him right now, but there's absolutely nothing wrong with organizational depth. And if the Revere/Hicks generation catches up by the time the current generation is ready to move on, Martin should be valuable enough in a trade to get us something better than Castillo.

Oh yeah, and the Mets have to pay Castillo for three more seasons of icing his knees during games in April and rapidly declining range in the field. Does anyone still think we lost that trade?

Reyes' Departure

2009-03-07T00:00:00-08:00

This week the Cardinals signed Dennys Reyes, netting the Twins a sandwich pick as compensation. Nobody was that high on Reyes while he was with the Twins, but here's Neyer's take on the Cards' new acquisition:

if you're going to have [a LOOGY], you could hardly do better than paying $3 million for two years of a LOOGY with a 2.14 ERA over his past 126 innings. There have been some real bargains on the market this winter, and congrats to the Cardinals for finally jumping on one of them.

Yup, now that Reyes has escaped from Minnesota, he's a valuable player to have on the team!

FanGraphs had a slightly more analytical take:

Reyes’ raw numbers should improve in St. Louis as long as LaRussa avoids the pitfalls of Ron Gardenhire’s usage: right-handers. Reyes was used nearly 50% of the time against righties in 2006, 41% in 2007, and 46% in 2008.

Hmm, if we were apprehensive when Reyes entered the game, it was only because it was Gardy's fault! As much as I'd like to believe that ... in truth, Gardy is responsible to lowering Reyes' number and percentage of righties-faced to the lowest levels in his career.

He was something of a victim of his own initial success, here; in 1999, his first full season with the Reds, he dispatched hitters indiscriminately, and faced fifty more right-handers. By 2001, even though he was now allowing a classically specialist .276/.378/.454 line against right-handed hitters, he was facing a righty two-thirds of the time. In 2005, his one year with the Padres, he allowed a .354 batting average against righties (.222 v. His Own Kind) and was dumped at mid-season. As a rule I'm against pigeon-holing pitchers too early. They should be seen as starters until it's patently obvious that they're not, and they should face all kinds of hitters until the point is proven that they can't. But when Reyes was released by the Padres that July he'd made 344 appearances and was pushing thirty. In every year but two he'd shown a pronounced inability to retire right-handed batters, but it took until 2006, a year he began in the minor leagues, for somebody to limit his exposure to them. In 2006 he faced just two more righties than lefties; in 2007, twenty more left-handers; in 2008, fourteen.

So Gardy actually saved Reyes' career, and is largely responsible for the praise Reyes is getting now that he's going to a team that Red Sox Nation ESPN is actually aware of.

So good luck to the Big Sweat, and thanks for the draft pick. I'm certain the fear I felt when he struggled to climb the mound will be replaced by another reliever who gets consistent work despite demonstrating a complete inability to get guys out. That's how Gardy works the pen.

Denard Span Fan

2009-03-07T00:00:00-08:00

Recently Denard Span spoke with Rod Carew, and had this to say coming out:

"He said it's about being consistent and being here for 15 years," Span said. "I don't want to just be an average player or a one-year guy. I want to be a guy that when you speak of Twins outfielders, you talk about Kirby Puckett and Torii Hunter ... and then Denard Span."

This is yet another reason why I'm a big Denard Span Fan.

He understands what he could mean to this team, and he wants it. And I want it too. So I'm rooting for him.

Put it this way: in 2020, when you talk about Twins outfielders, I want to be able to talk about Kirby, Torii, and Denard.

Baker Signs Below Market Value, Much Rejoicing Ensues

2009-03-07T00:00:00-08:00

Good news, everyone!

The Twins have locked up their most consistent pitcher on a long term deal. Scott Baker will make $15.25M over the next four years (we bought out his arbitration years), and the Twins hold a $9.25M option for a fifth year (which would have been his first of free agency).

My analysis of Baker's value recommended that we should definitely sign him, and I calculated his value as somewhere between 4/$18M and 4/$23M, and that we should add a $10-12M option for a fifth year. The Twins will end up paying less that what I figured was the minimum we could get him for.

I suppose that just means Baker and his agent should spend more time reading The Internet. Where FireGardy.com, the bloggingest blog of blogs, is.

Another possibility is that Baker was willing to give a slight discount given the fact that he likes the Twins and likes being here -- as demonstrated by quotes like "I like this place. I like playing here. I like the coaching staff and obviously we have a great clubhouse." -- and unlike pre-contract-Nathan, Santana, and Hunter, is able to realize that the Twins do have a limited amount of money, and if they spend a little less on you, they can spend a little more on someone else.

And today, Baker went 4 IP against the Pirates, giving up just 1 run (on a HR to Adam LaRoche) while striking out 4 and walking none.

It's a great day.

(Hat tip to commenter Schulte who sent in the link.)

Boras Attempts to Make a Mockery of the Already Mockable Arbitration Process

2009-03-06T00:00:00-08:00

The Rockies, like most teams, have a system whereby players get promotions in their pre-arbitration years. It's usually mostly based on tenure, with performance considerations added in. (This is why most pre-arbitration players make a little more than the actual minimum salary.)

This can be a complicated thing. A team wants to keep its players happy by giving them raises rather than pinching pennies at the cost of jerking around their young players. At the same time, arbitrators use the amount a player made in his pre-arbitration years as a consideration for what they should make in arbitration. Simply by virtue of giving someone a little extra money when you don't have to, you can corner yourself into paying them considerably more when they hit arbitration.

But apparently, there's another consideration, and this one is from the players' perspective: By "agreeing" to the offered pre-arbitration contract, they can be seen to "agree" with that valuation. And Scott Boras, shockingly, is having none of it:

The Rockies have a very stringent pay scale for pre-arbitration eligible players, and they are consistent with that approach. Boras does not agree with the philosophy and prefers to have his clients not agree to the contract as a matter of principle.

As a result, Boras' three clients on the Rockies will make the minimum instead of whatever slightly-more-than-minimum salary the team offered them. Undoubtedly, Boras will use this "disagreement" against the team in upcoming arbitration battles, pointing out that the team "undervalues" the players and attempted to "take advantage of them."

I'm assuming, of course, that Boras is actually thinking ahead in the interest of making more money for these clients, as opposed to using them as guinea pigs or precedent for other, more talented players down the road, from whom Boras can score a bigger payday in the future. I suspect he does that frequently, but I'm not necessarily here to accuse him of breaking his contract to act in the interest of his clients.

As far as I know, the Twins have only two Boras clients now: Carlos Gomez and Joe Crede. We've taken advantage of Crede's injury situation and a down market to stick it to Boras on that contract -- but Gomez will soon be hitting arbitration, and Boras will probably pull out all the stops to jack up his arbitration prices.

Given that Gomez was a Boras client, it was basically a given that we'd lose him at the end of his arbitration years at the latest, possibly trading him a year or two earlier than that. But given this latest development, is it time to start thinking about trading away Gomez before he even hits arbitration?

Liriano

2009-03-05T00:00:00-08:00

With Liriano entering his second year since Tommy John surgery, the expectation for him would be that he rebounds significantly as pitchers tend to do. In 2006 he was absolutely dynamite, and AL hitters simply had no answer for his arsenal of fastball and deadly slider. But, as Buster Olney reports, Liriano's more of a complete pitcher now:

Francisco Liriano's delivery always will have mechanical potholes, the kind of flaws that can wreck the undercarriage of a long, prosperous career. The Minnesota left-hander already has had reconstructive elbow surgery, and because of the way he relies on his slider and the way he sometimes fails to finish his delivery, he probably will always be at greater risk than most pitchers. But Rick Anderson, the Twins' pitching coach, feels Liriano's delivery has improved, and that the young pitcher has gained an understanding of his own mechanics and how he can use his slider. "Instead of throwing that slider 45 times in a game, he'll throw it 20 times in a game," Anderson said Monday morning before going to oversee a Liriano bullpen session. It used to be that when Liriano got backed into a corner, Anderson said, he immediately leaned on the slider, his crutch, and threw it three times. But more and more, Liriano has used his changeup, and Anderson feels that because of the lefty's effort to diversify his repertoire, he has developed a pretty good change, a pitch he can use in a tough spot instead of the slider. "He's more of a complete pitcher now than he was," Anderson said. "He's got more of an understanding of his own mechanics. "Look, he's always going to have a violent delivery. … Every once in a while, he'll go back in his mechanics and it's still going to be violent. We're still trying to get him to finish off his pitches consistently, rather than cutting his delivery off. But he's better." Much better than he was a year ago, in Anderson's eyes. Early in the 2008 season, Anderson did not see Liriano working with much confidence, and after the 25-year-old went 0-3 with an 11.32 ERA in April, the Twins sent him to the minors for the next three months. There was much public debate in the Twin Cities about whether the team waited too long to summon him to the big leagues, but after seeing Liriano pitch upon his return, Anderson is sure of this: Liriano benefited from his time in Triple-A. "You could see his confidence back," Anderson said.

I don't know what to expect from Liriano. It's hard to expect him to be back to his 2006 form, since that was just so dominating. And A big part of the reason for his success was that when he got into a tough spot he leaned so heavily on that slider: three straight sliders that look like fastballs until they disappear is a damn good way to rack up strikeouts.

We've been hearing for over a year that his changeup has made big strides and that it'll be a good major league pitch. But we don't really know how it's going to work out yet.

Baseball Prospectus has even more misgivings about Liriano, projecting a 4.16 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and just 7.0 K/9. And their "best possible projection," the 90% percentile, has him at just a 3.09 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 7.3 K/9. In PECOTA's eyes, the days of Liriano being a dominant pitcher are gone, and the most we can now hope for is a solid middle of the rotation guy who doesn't strike that many people out any more.

It should not be surprising that even though I have misgivings that we'll see a return to 2006 (2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.4 K/9), I am nowhere near that pessimistic.

Given how good he looked for his final 10 starts in AAA last year and how good he was in his second stint with the Twins to end the 2008 season, I think we can expect him to be pretty good. And while I agree with Anderson that he benefited from that time in AAA, if we'd brought him up just a little bit earlier, and replaced one or two of Livan's 8 run in three innings piles of shit with a Liriano performance, we'd probably have made the playoffs last year. It's hard to argue that the Twins made the right decision the keep Liriano down there that long.

But now he's with the big club, and presumably is there to stay. Replacing 25 sliders per game with changeups, he'll be a considerably different pitcher -- but will he be as good?

PECOTA Infiltrated By Matt Wieters' Mother

2009-03-04T00:00:00-08:00

Today Rob Neyer points out the absurd PECOTA projection for Orioles catching prospect Matt Wieters: .311/.395/.544! PECOTA is the computer projection system employed by Baseball Prospectus, and is typically pretty conservative in its projections. (Except in the case of Twins players, in which case it is extremely conservative. For example, it projects Mauer to lose 25 points of OBP and drop a full win off his WARP. And Morneau is projected to never again be as good as he was in any of the last three years, and to decline rapidly despite the fact that he's right in the middle of his prime. They're projecting a 1.5 win drop in Morneau's WARP, which is pretty significant.)

Anyhow, PECOTA is not conservative at all when it comes to Wieters. It significantly undershot uber-prospects Evan Longoria and Geovani Soto a year ago, despite the huge numbers they put up in the minors. In fact, the numbers it's projecting for Wieters are historic. It'd basically be an OPS+ of 143, which catchers have done just 62 times since 1908. And if you believe Rob Neyer's research, just 8 times by a catcher under 25 years old. And two of those seasons happened three years ago, in 2006:

It happened three years ago. In 2006, 22-year-old Brian McCann and 23-year-old Joe Mauer posted nearly identical OPS+ figures (McCann 143, Mauer 144). Mauer had played only 40 games above Double-A (five in Triple-A, 35 in the majors); McCann skipped Triple-A completely, but played 59 games with the big club before his breakout season.

Obviously those were impressive seasons from Mauer and McCann. Except that Mauer had played a few more games than that, given that 2006 was Mauer's second full season in the majors. He'd played 35 games in 2004, and 131 in 2005 (in which he hit just .294/.372/.411, for a 107 OPS+), before bursting forth with his batting-title-winning 2006 and .347/.429/.507 and its 144 OPS+.

I'm always excited by big time projections for young players like Wieters. But I'd like to see the guy play before assuming he's the best catcher of all time. It took Mauer a year to adjust to the majors despite huge success in the minors, and McCann had a 59 game cup of coffee before his first full season. And both Mauer and McCann were younger in 2006 than Wieters is now, and Wieters' age was the major factor in PECOTA's projection.

And PECOTA projects that Wieters will maintain that production or better every year until he's 30, at which point he will finally begin to slowly decline. Basically, vote him into the Hall of Fame now, because he's the best god damn catcher there's ever been.

I'm going to pin Neyer's forgetting that Mauer played major league baseball for the Minnesota Twins in 2005 on the fact that, like most Red Sox Fans, he is unaware that the Twins existed in 2005. Or at all.

And I'm going to pin PECOTA's projection for Wieters on the fact that he'll be playing in the AL East, where men are men and the coast isn't far away.

Cuddyer's Contract?

2009-03-03T00:00:00-08:00

Tim Dierkes has just released a list of the worst current contracts in baseball. He came up with 44 of them. And while I figured the Twins have signed some dumb contracts recently, the fact that they have to be current basically narrows it down to just Mike Lamb -- and he threw out everything below $15M total, so I didn't think any Twins would be on the list.

But I was wrong. He listed Michael Cuddyer's $24M deal as one of the 44 worst current contracts in baseball. I think that's a little harsh. The contract is for 3 years and an $8M AAV -- is that completely unreasonable?

Granted, Cuddyer's 2008 was worthless given the injuries (actually worse than worthless according to FanGraphs, who put him at -$1.3M for 2008). But that doesn't necessarily make the contract bad.

He'd established a certain level of performance -- worth $10.8M in 2006 and $8.4M in 2007 -- which were his 27 and 28 year old seasons. You could reasonably expect him to decline 10% per year from his prime years during the contract, which puts his expected value for 2008, 2009, and 2010 at $7.5M, $6.8M, and $6.1M. Baseball Prospectus is considerably less enthusiastic about his chances, projecting him to be worth $4.5M in 2009 and $4.6M in 2010, though most of that is probably due to the "No Twins are capable of hitting a baseball because Minnesota is really far away from anywhere important and also BP is based on the south side of Chicago" factor in their calculations.

The Twins obviously thought Cuddyer would be able to stay healthy and decline slightly less rapidly than 10% per year given his late breakout. It wasn't a completely unreasonable assumption at the time, and it's not out of the question that he returns to his 2007 form this year in 400-450 PA or so. Additionally, Cuddyer is a fan favorite and one of the leaders in the clubhouse, which tends not only to be ignored by the statistical community, but even villainized. I disagree with their hatred for friendly players who show leadership, and I think teams do value that. Especially the Twins.

And while we currently have a logjam in the outfield and Cuddyer may well have been the odd man out if it weren't for the contract, nobody could have predicted that Denard Span would break out like this. And there's nothing wrong with having too many good players.

If Cuddyer continues to suck and get hurt like he did in 2008, the contract will obviously be a disaster, performance-wise. But if he rebounds to a level anything like his 2006 or 2007, the contract won't end up being that bad.

The Twins and ESPN

2009-03-02T00:00:00-08:00

I had sportscenter on the TV this morning as I was getting ready for work, and while in the other room I heard them start to introduce a highlight from the Twins-Red Sox game from yesterday. I dashed out to the living room to check it out. First they show Josh Beckett getting someone to pop out, and spend a few seconds saying how awesome he is. Then they cut to some random Red Sox minor league outfielder making a mildly impressive catch in left on a Nick Punto sinking liner. And finally they show Kevin Youklis hitting his homer. It was the most biased highlight I have ever seen. The only time a Twins player was mentioned was Punto because he hit the ball that was caught on an "amazing play". It was total BS. Granted, the Twins didn't really do much on offense. We did turn four double plays, I'm sure one of them was cool. I also realize that time allotted for Spring Training highlights is less than time allotted for regular season highlights, but come on. ESPN really needs to stop catering to "Red Sox nation" and give even coverage to all teams. In the age of fantasy sports, pretty much every team has at least a few relevant players (except maybe the Pirates). People who play fantasy baseball are curious as to how their players are playing and watching game highlights on sportscenter is one of the best ways to do that.

The Red Sox are probably my second most hated team in all of sports. So you can imagine that I'm upset that not only are they getting tons of exposure on sportscenter, but it is at the expense of one of my favorite teams in all of sports. What do you guys think, is this something that everyone notices, or am I just crazy? Would this have happened if the Twins put on more of an offensive show or will ESPN do anything to talk up the Red Sox?

Original Content on MLB Network ... And It's About Delmon Young

2009-03-02T00:00:00-08:00

And ... speaking of the MLB Network and the possiblity of better non-Boston/NY coverage of baseball, tonight they're airing their first original film, We Are Young: A Baseball Family. It's about the brothers Young, Dmitri and Delmon, and it comes on at 8 PM. I'll be watching it, and I'll try to post something about it tomorrow.

I'm really hoping this thing is well made, I always look forward to a glimpse into the lives of Twins players, especially the ones I like like Delmon.

Hopefully it's not quite as depressing as it sounds:

. . . We Are Young: A Baseball Family, the first-ever original film by MLB Productions, chronicles a seven-year period of MLB players and brothers Dmitri and Delmon Young, and their demanding father, Larry, who helped guide them into the Major Leagues. The film documents Dmitri, currently on the Washington Nationals, who makes the All-Star team in 2003, watches with joy as his brother is selected as the number one pick in the Draft that same year, but then begins to battle alcoholism and is released by the Detroit Tigers in 2005. Soon after, Dmitri comes close to death due to an undiagnosed case of diabetes, and then bounces back to make the All-Star team in 2007 and become the National League's 2007 Comeback Player of the Year. We Are Young: A Baseball Family also chronicles the controversy that has surrounded Delmon-the first overall pick in the 2003 Major League Baseball Draft-ever since his 50-game suspension for flipping a bat in at an umpire during a Minor League game. Delmon would learn a valuable lesson, and eventually is called up to the Major Leagues in the fall of 2005, where he would make an immediate impact with Tampa. After finishing second in the American League Rookie of the Year honors the next season, Delmon was traded to the Twins.

And just as an off-the-cuff remark: you often hear about the demanding fathers who mold their children into professional-caliber athletes (or even the best in their sport) like Tiger Woods, Venus/Serena Williams, and Dmitri/Delmon Young. And I'm sure it's a lot more common than that among professional athletes.

But you never hear about the demanding fathers who pushed their children hard to become great and it didn't work out. That's really the kind of thing that can ruin lives and tear families apart.

Nathan Out of the WBC

2009-03-01T00:00:00-08:00

Joe Nathan has pulled himself out of the WBC because he has "a sore acromioclavicular joint, better known as the AC joint." (Sounds like something in the shoulder area, but I am not a doctor.)

Nathan has a sore shoulder?! Time to panic! The sky is falling! The Twins are doomed! We needed to sign Cruz! Contract the team! Waaaah!

Oh wait. No. That's not this blog, that's crazy talk. Frankly, I think this is great news. I've been lobbying to get Nathan out of the WBC for months now. And here's what I think happened: Nathan looked at his bad outing the other day, figured "I need to stay with the team and work on this, let's talk about a sore shoulder so people don't think I'm an anti-American terrorist."

Unless this news takes a sudden and debilitating turn for the worse, I'm leaving it in the pile with a smiley face on it.

Koskie signs with the Cubs

2009-02-28T00:00:00-08:00

Corey Koskie has been signed by the Cubs. It is a minor league deal, so there is no risk for the Cubs. He will be competing for the backup third base job. I've always liked Koskie and I hope this is a sign that he will be able to get a job somewhere. If he doesn't make the Cubs, hopefully he will show something in camp that will get him noticed.

Good luck, Corey.

Crede Debuts Against the Yankees

2009-02-27T00:00:00-08:00

Today Joe Crede makes his debut in a Twins uniform, against the Yankees. Here's the lineup:

Go-Go, CF. 2. Casilla, 2B. 3. Joe C., DH. 4. MVP ‘06, 1B. 5. Cuddy, RF. 6. Young, LF. 7. Red-Dog, C. 8. Harris, 3B. 9. Punto, SS. Pitching: Scott Baker.

Obviously it's tough to put together the best lineup without Mauer, Span, or Kubel, but I actually like this one. I'm going to go ahead and overlook the fact that Gomez is leading off, and assume that the point is to get him as many spring PAs as possible. Having Crede batting third, in front of Morneau, is promising: I continue to hope Gardy's willing to push Mauer up into the 2 hole.

But this lineup should be able to score some runs, and I'm excited to watch them. Wait, what's that you say? The game is on at noon, and is not available on MLB.TV? Well what the hell am I paying you guys for?

Hopefully one of our readers is in Fort Myers right now and can give us updates on the game. I'm not confident that that's the case, but I am hopeful.

Oh, and I wonder why Crede's DHing today. Is his back okay? Just easing him in? Gardy prefers the defense he knows (Harris) over the unknown Crede? Absolutely not a big deal and shouldn't be given a second thought?

Yeah, I think that's the one. No big deal. Let's just hope for some solid hits.

Murray Chass Wants His Good Old Days Back

2009-02-26T00:00:00-08:00

Murray Chass, the anti-blogging blogger, has dropped a new "column" (as he calls it), or "post" (as his fellow bloggers call it), or "pile" (as I prefer to call it). And it's brilliant. I'm going to go ahead and fisk this thing. Bold is what Chass says.

If this is too much inside baseball, I apologize, but I am too devastated and outraged to write anything else at the moment. Major League Baseball, which can’t kill steroids, has killed the Red Book and the Green Book.

You haven't explained what exactly the red and green books are, but I'm going to go ahead and assume they're paper publications about Christmas, or shopping, or something. And that "ceasing to actively publish a book" is probably just about exactly as difficult as "ending the steroids issue/problem once and for all." No reason to guess otherwise, really.

Baseball officials would say the books died of atrophy. No one was using them any more. But I used them, often on a daily basis. They sit on a shelf an arm’s length away from my desk. I can get them that quickly when I need information from them.

I'm sure they "would" use the word "atrophy," but I'm also sure they "didn't." I'm going to go ahead and assume that the books are not muscle-bound, but rather leather-bound. [Insert punchline-drum-riff here.]

Also, "an arm's length away" is not a measure of time, which is implied by the use of the word "quickly." Murray, my friend, you're trying to hard. Or not hard enough.

Right now the Red Book is on my desk open to page 161, American League Managers, 1901-2008. It is there because I was looking up information about a manager I had planned to write about before I got the news release from Major League Baseball announcing the demise of those trusty books.

So you're telling me MLB has been producing a book every year that includes statistics like "every manager of every team, every year?" Doesn't that seem like kind of a big waste?

But it is clear to me what MLB is trying to do here. Destroy history! If they don't publish the books, Murray Chass will have no way to know who managed the Cleveland Spiders in 1899! Oh ... wait ... that wasn't included in the books? Ever? I hope nobody ever wanted to find out.

What are the Red Book and Green Book? They are league reference guides for club executives and the news media, Red for the American League, Green for the National. They have more information than we need to know, but they have what we need when we need it.

Sounds like some other slightly-more-modern reference medium, which may or may not be less wasteful than producing the same information on paper hundreds of times every year. Like the internet. Which also has "more information than we need to know, but [has] what we need when we need it." So you're telling me I shouldn't be that worried about this?

Each book has five pages on every team, each team’s won-lost record and place in the standings for every year of its existence, each team’s managers for every year of its existence, all sorts of hitting and pitching statistical lists, year-by-year list of 20-game winners, club leaders each year in hitting and pitching categories, teams’ top marks since their beginning, individual league champions, award winners, comprehensive statistics from the previous season, the previous year’s player transactions, relevant rules and that season’s schedule.

I only wish there was another place to find this information in a free, accessible, always-available format! Otherwise I might not be able to research statistics for my columns any more!

The release announcing this development is shrewdly written. It doesn’t say the books won’t exist any more - that would be negative - but it says the books will be available exclusively online for the first time, as if that’s a good thing.

So the books aren't really going away. All the information is still available, except you either have to read it on a computer screen or print it out yourself, rather than expecting someone else to print it for you and then mail it to you. Yeah ... wouldn't want to sound negative.

“The 2009 editions of the Red and Green Books,” the release says, “will mark the first time that these annual publications will be available online only.”

Okay, they'll only be available online. I think that's pretty clear.

Then it drops the bombshell:

A bombshell? What could it possibly be?! Expect to be surprised, readers, by the cruel audacity of Major League Baseball.

“While printed copies of the Red and Green Books will no longer be distributed by Major League Baseball, the publications will be available in an easily downloadable format on MLBPressBox.com.”

Um, they'll only be available online. In what sense is "repeating the previous sentence using different and longer words" considered "a bombshell?"

With that wording, MLB is trying to make this a positive development, something good for me and my colleagues, but there’s a clue at the bottom of the release that indicates otherwise.

Okay, so it's marketing. Do you expect them to send you a news release smeared in shit and tears? But it can't possibly hurt you to have the exact same information available to you in an ever-so-slightly different format. Right? Or is it panic time?

Usually at the bottom of MLB news releases, it lists two names to contact if more information is sought or there are questions: Rich Levin and Pat Courtney. They are baseball’s top two public relations executives.

No, not panic time. It's in-depth research time!

At the bottom of this release, however, there are no names, only telephone numbers, one for each book and one for Major League Baseball public relations. I called the numbers for the two books.

You mean instead of giving two telephone numbers, they've given three? Travesty! They're withholding information!

“They’re no longer doing a publication; they’re available online,” said Andrew Davis, an aide to Katy Feeney, senior vice president for club relations and scheduling, who answered the Green Book number.

Okay, it seems pretty open and shut. Same info, different place, much cheaper to produce. No harm no foul, right?

Why are they no longer doing a publication? “I couldn’t tell you the exact reason.”

I thought we've been over this. Same benefits, much cheaper to produce. Why didn't this happen 10 years ago?

Was that a permanent decision? “I don’t know. For 2009 it will be available at Pressbox.com. Beyond this year I don’t know. Nothing has been determined for future seasons.”

They don't seem to be giving us any more information. I'd say this in-depth research thing is going swimmingly. Murray Chass is clearly an expert at this.

I called the Red Book number and left a message. Greg Domino returned the call.

Thank you for explaining how telephones work, presumably to the best of your knowledge. Otherwise I would not have known how you were able to speak to Mr Domino!

“That was a decision made not by me,” Domino, a public relations intern, said. “That was in the hands of my superiors, Phyllis and Katy, and everyone else.”

Everyone else? So you're the only person at The Red Book Publishing Company that has exactly zero say in The Publishing Of The Red Book? And why are there separate numbers for MLB, Red Book, and Green Book? Are the AL and the NL so secretive that they have to hide in different companies while they produce a book of secret information that will then be available to anyone? Explain this please.

Why was the decision made? “To be honest I’m not entirely aware of why they decided to do so. I suppose to go green and to cut down in the repetition in other books.”

It was not your decision and you don't know why it was made? Well, Mr Domino, then what in blazes are you doing answering The Answering Questions About The Decision Hotline? In any event, his guess is a pretty good one: it seems pretty wasteful to print that many pages when the exact same information could much more easily be made available in such a way that it's free to distribute an infinite number of times. I hope we're not still confused about this.

Would the printed books return? “I do not know the answer to that. You’d have to ask Phyllis or Katy.”

No, we're still confused. Mr Chass, why do you even want the books back?

Phyllis Merhige is senior vice president for club relations. “We asked the clubs, and they said we should do it online only,” she said. “Nobody wants them anymore. You’re the only person. I take that back. Marty Appel wanted one.”

Oh, okay, we're getting somewhere! The league asked the teams -- the primary beneficiaries of these publications -- what to do, and the response was essentially "We don't care, we compile all our own information anyway, just leave me alone." And the league, in conjunction with The Red Book Publishing Company and The Green Book Publishing Company, decided that it's not really economically feasible to do a complete publishing run for two customers.

Wait, "not really economically feasible" is probably the wrong phrase. Please replace it with "monumentally boneheaded" and we're getting closer, I think.

Appel is a former Yankees’ public relations director. In a column he wrote on his Web site, appelpr.com, he said, “The Red and Green Books are among the last things that have distinguished the leagues since the abandonment of separate league offices in 1999 and the end of American and National League presidencies.”

Ah. We're now getting down to the crux of why the books are necessary. The color of the cover of the books is the last thing distinguishing the AL and the NL as different leagues since they merged into the same office building ten years ago. I mean, aside from the designated hitter, right? No, you're right, this is a much bigger differentiator. The book covers must be brought back! Otherwise I'd be confused as to which league my team is in!

Merhige (left) and Feeney (right) didn’t let the printed books go easily. “It was very distressing to Katy and myself,” Merhige said. “People used to wait for those books on March 1.” But she added, “We asked the p.r. directors do you feel the books get used. They said no. It was an expensive book to produce, expensive to mail. We weren’t getting our money’s worth.”

Well, in economic times like these, nobody should be able to quibble with the "We stopped producing this product because it was expensive and had no customers" gambit. Companies should be more willing to make this gambit during any economic climate. Or just lose money hand over fist to make old fashioned sportswriters feel more comfortable with imagining that nothing's changed since they were working in the mail room 50 years ago. That could work too, I guess.

Feeney noted that she had Green Books in her office dating to 1936. Asked if the books would ever return, she said, “If enough people say the loss of it is detrimental we’d go back to doing it next year in some form. That’s if enough people say they use it. Apparently people have said they don’t use it.”

73 years worth of books. 73 separate copies, printed on non-recycled paper with expensive black ink, of who managed each time from 1901-1935. And 72 copies of who managed each team from 1901-1936. And so on. Just in case the manager of the 1901 Washington Senators ever changes.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today is one reporter who uses it.

So you're saying we're up to three!

“I loved the Red and Green books,” he wrote in an e-mail. “They were part of baseball’s fabric, and to see them suddenly disappear from print leaves a huge void in baseball. These were the bibles for every baseball executive and writer. You wouldn’t write a story without having them by your side.

And now the fabric of the game is torn. There's a huge void left in baseball. This is just as bad as the steroids scandal! If not worse!

And because they've stopped mailing the books, in actual-book-form, to the writers, we won't get the usual well-researched fare, heavy with statistical analysis that can only be enabled by the musty smell of a hardcover book. Instead, sportswriters will start crapping out substance-free crap that went completely unresearched and brazenly insulting anyone who attempts to learn anything new about baseball through unproven methods like "stats." And that's a change I don't want to see.

“I know these are new times, the day of the Internet and all of that, but it was a rite of passage every spring to get those books and immediately thumb through them, even going to bed sometimes looking for tidbits. I miss them already!”

Oh, Bob, I miss them too. If only there were some way to read a PDF in bed before going to sleep. Like a Kindle. Or a netbook. Or a laptop. Or a bunch of paper printed out of a printer. Alas, none of these things exist in The Day of the Internet And All Of That.

The decision to eliminate the printed books probably should not be surprising. Two years ago MLB reduced the size of the books from 8 ½ inches by 11 inches to 8 ½ inches by 5 ½ inches. However, the number of pages rose from 112 to 187 (AL) and 208 (NL).

Yeah, they were already trying to cut down on the amount of paper they were wasting. And it wasn't really working. I for one am glad to see they're trying new things to cut down on useless costs.

One explanation given for the elimination of the printed books is the repetition of some of the elements of the books.

They do repeat 90%+ of their content every year.

The previous season’s statistics, for example, are in the average book that is published after the season. Rosters of the 30 teams appear in the spring training media guide.

What, that's not what you meant? They actually produce two other books every year that contain most of the same information? Um, why?

The previous season's statistics are also available, for example, on the internet. Rosters of the 30 teams appear, get this, on the internet, FOR FREE, EVEN.

But once spring training ends and the season starts, the spring training guide is put away, and the Red and Green Books become the references of choice.

Whose choice? My choice? Oh, no, you meant your choice. And the choice of two other people. Everyone else's choice, including the executives of the thirty baseball teams, is ... [drum roll please] ... THE INTERNET.

I don’t blame MLB for abolishing the books. I wish they hadn’t, but if they find that no one uses them, it’s just another unfortunate development of today’s coverage of baseball.

It is unfortunate that a tiny, invisible thing changed in a tiny, invisible way that "negatively" effects three sportswriters, and nobody else, in the entire world.

Younger writers, more attuned to the use of the Internet than their older colleagues, may not have a problem with the disappearance of the books.

Yes, us younger internet writers are more able to use the internet than old people who shun technology in all forms which did not exist when they were, in turn, young people more in tune to radios than their father's generation. And since the information is available on the internet, it doesn't really matter whether it's available in book form or not. So no, I don't see a lot of problems with the disappearance of the books.

But in past years they didn’t have the Internet as an alternative reference site. They apparently just didn’t feel the need for any information the books provided.

Before these young people were young, they didn't read books! That means that without the internet, they'd still be too young and stupid to write! They don't understand baseball! Where's my cane?!

I don't see why "the ability to read information on the internet" should preclude someone from "the ability to read a book." Murray Chass, however, seems to believe they are mutually exclusive skills.

That says more about them than it does about baseball’s decision.

I don't know about that, Murray, but it says a whole hell of a lot about you.

Gardy Snaps, Attempts to Kill LEN3

2009-02-26T00:00:00-08:00

Here in Internetland, we all respect LEN3 as a good beat writer. That sentiment is apparently not shared by the enigmatic Gardy. Tell it La Velle:

I was almost run over by a Jeep Wrangler in the parking lot this morning as I rushed to make a 7 a.m. interview. That’s a little bit of an exaggeration, but the Jeep did throw some dirt on me as I heard Al Green music blaring. The Jeep stopped…and out came Gardy. “I could have taken your door off,” Gardy barked at me while grinning. The man is always fired up.

Great. In addition to not really knowing what's going on during the game and an unhealthy infatuation with anyone who's proven themselves to be bad at baseball, our manager also has some homicidal lunatic tendencies. At least he keeps it entertaining.

Oh yeah, and check out tonight's lineup against the Reds: 1. Span, LF. 2., Gomez, CF. 3. Harris. 3B. 4. Buscher, 1B. 5. Matos, RF. 6. Dustin Martin, DH. 7. Tolbert, 2B. 8. Jose Morales, C. 9 .Plouffe, SS. Pitching: Blackburn.

Talk about a quintessential spring training lineup. I don't think we'll be going to 2-0. Especially since the Reds are throwing Votto, Bruce, Phillips, and Encarnacion at us.

World Baseball "Classic"

2009-02-25T00:00:00-08:00

Its really not a classic, the World Series (Fall Classic) is a classic because its, well, classic. Anyway, the rosters were finalized last night and I thought I'd take a minute to look at the US roster and a few other teams with recognizable names.

The starting rotation appears to be very solid. Due to the schedule they only need a four man rotation. That consists of Jake Peavy and Roy Oswalt at the top, and Ted Lilly and Jeremy Guthrie at the back end. Not bad. Two aces, plus two solid middle rotation guys. The bullpen is pretty crowded, with four closers in Nathan, Fuentes, Broxton, and BJ Ryan. There are a total of 14 pitchers and 14 position players, so that makes for a crowded bullpen. This is probably good news for the teams of the players, though. The starters don't need to pitch very deep into the game, with plenty of viable relief options available.

The same can be said on the offensive side. Two all-star shortstops in Jeter and Rollins. Two catchers, Mark DeRosa who can play pretty much anywhere. Youklis appears to be the only true firstbaseman, and Pedrioa the only true secondbaseman. Too bad for the Red Sox, I hate them anyway. But I assume DeRosa will fill in at those two spots primarily, with Wright and Chipper Jones splitting time at third. There are four outfielders, two of whom are centerfielders (Granderson and Sizemore) and two corner (Hawp and Braun). It should be pretty easy to rotate those four guys, thus not overworking anyone.

We've already discussed the legitimacy of this tournament, so I won't get into that. I think the US has a very strong squad. Johan Santana is sitting out, so the Venezuela squad is missing its best pitcher, but it still has Felix Hernandex and Carlos Zambrano. But one of them is offset by Carlos Silva. They should also have a strong lineup with Magglio Ordonez, and Miggy Cabrera. Defense appears to be solid with the Isturis brothers on the roster, as well as Endy Chavez in the outfield.

Another noteworth team is the Dominican Republic. While their pitching staff isn't overwhelming, they do have a nice lineup. Hanely Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Alex Rodriguez, and David Ortiz are the big names. Along with Adrian Beltre and Robinson Cano. They are lacking Manny Ramierz and Albert Puljos, two players I believe they had last time around. The pitching staff has Johnny Cueto and Pedro Martinez. Not much else in the way of starters.

Of those three teams I looked at, I would think the US has the best squad, due to pitching. The starters are very good, and so is the bullpen. Obviously Japan and Cuba will have very good teams, but since outside of Ichiro I don't know any of their players, I wasn't going to bother looking at their rosters. My guess is that the United States, Japan, or Cuba will win. And two of those teams will be playing each other in the championship round.

Twins Better Not Follow Yankee Footsteps

2009-02-25T00:00:00-08:00

This season, the Twins will play in the third oldest stadium in baseball (behind only the Red Sox and Dodgers). It also happens to be one of the worst. But in 2010, we'll be in the brand-spanking-newest stadium in the league, and the news coming out about it is increasingly great. Excitement is definitely building.

But the Yankees are doing what they can to strike fear into the fans of teams with new stadiums everywhere.

The Yankees deserve every pixel of bad publicity they receive over this, every blankety-blank karmic quantum of bad yankety-blank karma. My friends and I are hardly the only customers wronged in such a fashion; an informal discussion with a few other longtime Yankees ticket holders who write for various sites (including this one) reveals similarly shoddy treatment. Indeed, all of us who have something at stake short of a full-season ticket package are being screwed because the Yankees have bungled this so badly that they can't possibly fulfill the demand. So naturally, their impulse is to trample the loyal customers who helped carry them past the three million and four million attendance milestones over the past decade. This is a story worth illuminating, not only to fellow Yankee fans who may commiserate about finding themselves up the same fetid creek, but to baseball fans everywhere.

Jay Jaffe is absolutely right about this. The Yankees are ignoring seating requests and moving their fans' requested seating assignments to wherever they want (and to a more expensive, more distant, more obstructed location, no less). And they're making a take-it-or-leave-it stance that can't possibly make any of their fans happy. And bear in mind that these are loyal, long-time season ticket holders who signed up for their tickets at the new stadium as soon as possible.

If this can happen to Yankees fans, it can happen to anyone. All I can say is that the Twins had better not try to pull this kind of crap on their fans.

But just remember that if this is happening here, it can happen in your city as well. Even the green cathedrals of Wrigley Field and Fenway Park will someday fall to the wrecking ball, and when you emerge from the rubble with a lesser opportunity to visit your new ballpark, you'll have plenty of company.

You've got that right. It's getting pretty close to time for the Twins to show their fans that they respect and value their loyalty. Do the right thing.

Punto's firm beliefs

2009-02-25T00:00:00-08:00

The always delightful Jim Souhan penned an article in the Star Tribune today about Nick Punto's affinity for sliding into first base. Head first. First off, Souhan compares this to some sort of drug addiction, which probably isn't cool. However, I'm not here to critique Souhan's writing ability. I'm here to discuss why Punto slides into first. The answer is simple: he is an idiot.

Punto isn't so sure. "For some reason, I think it's faster," he said. "For all the people who have told me it's not, I still think it is.

What does that even mean. He has had experts from two different organizations show him on a watch that it is faster to run through the base. How on earth does he think its faster when science tells him otherwise. Does he not believe in dinosaurs either? Maybe him and Carl Everett should hang out and burn people at the stake or something.

For those of you who can still put up with Rick Riley, he wrote a pretty standard puff piece today about role models. The basic premise was athletes are role models to young people even if they don't want to be. Punto is setting a bad example for little leaguers. Most young people probably look up to Nick Punto because he isn't the biggest guy on the team, but he tries really hard. Or some such nonsense that children believe. Can you imagine a team from Minnesota in the Little League World Series, and all the players are sliding head first into first base? Our state would be the laughingstock of the country, not only have we had a pro wrassler as a governor, Stuart Smalley (probably the most unfunny character in SNL history, but that is neither here nor there) as a (potential) US Senator, and a bunch of kids who think sliding into first base is faster. I don't know about you, but I can't live with that.

Punto's coaches have tried to get him to stop. To no avail. I don't care if this act gives off the appearance of his trying harder. Plain and simple it just isn't a good way to do things. So we have determined its slower. That isn't up for debate. However, Punto "firmly believes" it is faster.

So not only does he choose to do something that is slower than the mainstream method, it is much riskier. If he were to catch him thumb on the bag, he could easily dislocate his shoulder. In fact, it happened to Nick Punto, Jr. (Matt Tolbert) last season. It also happened to Glenn Williams a few years back.

Is there anyone out there who likes that Punto does this? It doesn't mean he is "trying harder". If it were faster, Mr. Punto, why are you the only one who does it? There are many things about Punto that infuriate me. But two stand out. 1) Casual (and sometimes serious) fans' irrational love for him despite his being a sub-par baseball player. 2) Sliding into first base. 2a) would probably be: Not only does he slide into first base but he is convinced it is the right thing to do. That is just being ignorant. Maybe one of the team leaders like Cuddyer or Mauer can address it in a serious fashion. It seems like everyone says "that is just Nicky, nothing we can do to change it". I say fine his ass in kangaroo court (or with a legitimate team fine) every time he does it. Hopefully that will teach him.

Sorry for the rant, but it needed to be said.

First Game of 2009: Twins Take an Early Lead in the Mayor's Cup!

2009-02-25T00:00:00-08:00

Last night, the Twins played their first game of 2009. In the Opening Day of Spring Training, Perkins got the start and went two solid, scoreless innings.

We played the Red Sox, in the opening game of the 2009 Mayor's Cup, which goes to either the Twins or the Red Sox in the battle for Fort Myers superiority. We lost 3 games to 2 in 2008, which is pretty much totally unacceptable. But this time around, we ended up taking an early 1-0 lead as we won the game 5-2.

The early returns from the offseason eye surgeries? Morneau went 1-2 with a walk and a double ... and an embarrassing strike out where he watched a fastball middle in for strike three. Cuddyer walked, grounded out while flailing at a pitch out of the zone, and grounded out easily to short. I wouldn't call these great early results (or nearly a large enough sample size to even bother talking about it), but I'd take a combined .500 OBP from Morneau and Cuddyer.

We scored three runs in the second inning, scraping together singles and sacrifice flies, and hitting well with runners in scoring position. It's the Twins way, after all.

Since it was just a spring training game, players were getting subbed out early, and managing the game is based on getting as many players into the game as possible. So there's definitely nothing to question about anything Gardy did (though it was somewhat jarring to see Perkins leave after just two innings). But, like the Twins surely do, I have a few reactions about how some of the players looked.

Nathan (who pitched the 4th and gave up Boston's first run) did not look good. He didn't have a handle on his breaking balls and couldn't hit the corners with the fastball; he got hit pretty hard. He's clearly not ready for the season -- but he also shouldn't be pitching the 4th inning very often. I'm not worried about Nathan.

Ayala looked decent, not great. A fly ball, a popup, a groundout, and a line drive. His ball wasn't fast, but it had a bit of movement. He could be a reasonably good addition to the bullpen if he pitches like that -- the only baserunner he allowed was a (hard) low line drive off Pedroia that Morneau wasn't quite able to handle. (In direct contrast to his fantastic pick on a line drive earlier in the game.)

Jason Jones has nice movement on the curve, but his fastball is too straight and he leaves it too high up. Especially since it's not fast. He also seemed to get a little rattled as things went south for him. The biggest part of his game, at this point, is probably mental. Not really the kind of guy we can afford in the majors this year, but he seems valuable if the Yankees will take a very low level piece of crap to let us keep him AAA to see what the Cliburns can do.

David Winfree sucks in the outfield (completely botched a play and lost the ball, allowing a run to score when it shouldn't have, and instilled zero confidence while catching the game-ending fly ball), and looked completely lost at the plate while striking out pathetically. His swing is really long and he has no strike zone recognition. This guy is not a prospect.

Danny Valencia is big. I expected him to be much smaller, but he looks really well built. And the ball just explodes off his bat. He looks like he could be good. Which is really promising, because we'll need him in the next year or two.

I couldn't tell much about Trevor Plouffe. He looks sure handed at short, but I couldn't see his range. His swing looks a little long, he could stand to shorten it up. Time will tell if he'll be able to replace Punto's glove and bat at SS. [Insert short video of me coughing.]

Some of you may say that spring training games don't matter. And, since they don't actually count for anything, you're partially right. But this one did count for something -- it was Game One of the Mayor's Cup, which is huge -- and it was the first game of the year. For those of us who have been dying for the last four months without baseball, it was a beautiful day.

Go Twins.

Boof's Bad News

2009-02-25T00:00:00-08:00

LEN3 is reporting the Boof is done for at least six months, but probably the year. What we all thought was severe tendinitis, is actually a torn labrum and rotator cuff. How in the hell did we get that wrong? The two MRIs he had showed no damage, now we get this. Quite the shocker. I wonder if this will motivate the team to make a harder push for Cruz. On the flip-side, I hope it doesn't cause them to push TOO hard and give up too much.

Boof Gets the Jesse Crain Special, Out for the Season

2009-02-25T00:00:00-08:00

Well it turns out that Boof's injury was a lot worse than anyone expected. His exploratory surgery today revealed a torn labrum and a torn rotator cuff. In other words, he's got The Jesse Crain Special. (So much for Rick Anderson doing such a great job of keeping the players' arms from falling off, by the way.)

These injuries somehow evaded detection on multiple MRIs on multiple different machines, each of which was examined by multiple teams of doctors. So I'm going to go ahead and skip the part where we complain about the Twins' (and Rays') doctors all missing this one three months ago.

This was yet another case where the Twins tried to go the "rest and rehab" route with one of their pitchers, like they do every time. And just like every other time, it didn't work out and surgery ended up being necessary in the first place. And just like every other time it took 3+ months to figure it out, which means instead of being ready to throw in time to get 6+ months in ahead of the season in which he'll actually be returning, Boof's arm will be ready in time to start getting ready for spring training.

As a result, Bonser/Neshek 2010 will be the same as Liriano/Crain 2008. (Except Liriano is better than Bonser and Neshek is better than Crain.)

It's a good thing the Twins are learning their lesson.

But this does mean we can stick Boof on the 60 day DL and keep him on the team for another year without losing him on waivers. Although that seems to be mattering less and less with this guy.

Boof needs surgery (apparently)

2009-02-24T00:00:00-08:00

According to LEN3 Boof Bonser needs shoulder surgery. Actually, it was a direct quote from Boof. I don't think this is an official/final decision, but the MRI didn't come back looking good. Neal says the Twins could (and probably will) encourage Boof to rehab first. This never seems to be a good idea. Might as well just clean out the shoulder and hope he can recover quickly.

My theory has been that this might be good for Boof. If he goes on the DL, doesn't that mean he technically doesn't have to make the team right off the bat in order for us to keep him? We can stash him on the 15 day DL for a while, wait until he is 100% and then give him a chance to be an effective set-up guy. As frustrating as it has been dealing with the ups and downs of Boof, I am in the camp the believes he can be a good relief pitcher. I'd hate to lose him for nothing, and if hiding him on the DL for a few weeks (or months) in order to keep him for a second half push or something, so be it. I'm not all that familiar with the minor league option rules, but does it take an option to send someone to the minors to rehab? Or does that not count? If we want to keep him would he have to go right from the DL to the major league roster, or would he have to go through waivers first?

This could also be good for Humber. While I think he is a long(er) shot to make the team, knocking one candidate out of the competition certainly helps him. This story just further turns up the spotlight that is shining on the bullpen situation. We have discussed it alot here, so I don't think we need to talk about it much more, but lets just summarize:

locks: Nathan, Crain, Guerrier, Breslow, Ayala

fighting for the two remaining spots: Mijares, Humber, and Jason Jones.

One could argue that Ayala is not a lock, but he probably is. Since the Twins are paying him lots of money (by our standards, and since he isn't that good 1.3 mil is a lot). The more I think about it, without Bonser, this isn't much of a competition. Mainly because I don't know much about Jason Jones, so I would assume that Mijares and Humber have a significant advantage to make the team. This also assumes Gardy is going with a 12 man staff, which also isn't a lock. So to summarize the summary: I don't know a damn thing.

Lineup talk

2009-02-23T00:00:00-08:00

Well, now that we officially have Joe Crede for a very reasonable 2.5 million, where does he bat in the lineup. I like having Morneau bat cleanup, and Mauer obviously isn't moving from the 3-hole. While I think Kubel is a good fit to bat fifth, I think its best to separate the lefties. Plug Crede in fifth, slide Kubel to sixth. I'd probably bat Young/Cuddyer seventh followed by Punto and Gomez. I could see Gardy flip-flopping Crede with Young/Cuddyer, it probably depends on how everyone does in the spring.

We have discussed the 25 man roster many times in this space. So now with the addition of Crede, which player does not make the cut? My guess is Buscher. He really isn't very useful as a bench player. Harris will make the team because he can play several positions, same probably goes for Tolbert. All five of the outfielders (Gomez, Span, Young, Cuddyer, Kubel) should be safe. At this point it is probably a toss up between Tolbert and Buscher. I konw Gardy loves him some scrappy utility infielders who can't really hit, so Tolbert might have the edge to make the squad. What do you guys think? Where will Gardy bat Crede, who gets bumped off the 25 man roster due to the Crede signing?

Developing From Within, Hitting vs Pitching: Time Passes the Twins By Once Again

2009-02-23T00:00:00-08:00

The common wisdom has always been that you build your team through pitching. Especially small- and mid-market teams must draft and develop their own pitching and build a team around that. That's certainly the approach the Twins have taken over the years, and it's finally coming to a head this year as the rotation consists solely of homegrown, young, cheap talent. But is the common wisdom right? Is it better to focus your organization's developmental powers on pitching rather than hitting?

Victor Wang over at The Hardball Times takes a look, and comes to the conclusion that no, it is not better to focus on developing pitching. The crux of the issue is that top hitting prospects are much more likely to succeed than top pitching prospects (everyone acknowledges that prospects are, for the most part, a crapshoot -- and that pitching prospects are even more of a crapshoot*), and therefore the overall value of a hitting prospect is considerably higher.

Wang looks at Matt Wieters and David Price. Right now these guys are #1 and #2 in all of baseball -- and his methods value Wieters twice as highly as Price. In fact, the top 10 hitting prospects as a whole are twice as valuable as the top 10 pitching prospects.

* For example, in 2001, would you have guessed that Johan Santana would have ended up this much better than Kyle Lohse? At the time, these guys were the #1 and #2 of our Rotation Of The Future ... and all the indications were that Lohse would be more successful than Santana. He had a better arm, better stuff, etc. But you can't predict what's going to happen with pitching. At all. If you could, we never would have gotten Johan from the Rule 5 draft in the first place.

Of course, the Twins buy into the old conventional wisdom that you simply must build your team by developing young pitchers. After all, it's really expensive and risky to sign top pitching free agents, who can get injured at any time and leave you holding the bag (and writing them checks). But, as always happens, the times have changed. Top hitters are extremely hard to acquire and are very expensive*, and they bring along less risk of injury and decline than any pitcher.

* This offseason seems to reverse that trend, but I beg to differ. What this offseason shows is a) an overall unwillingness of teams to spend money during a huge influx of free agents (ie, decreasing demand and increasing supply, which will drive down prices), and b) an overall increase in the value teams are placing on defense, which decreases the money offered to good-bat no-glove corner outfielders in their thirties. I contend that good hitters who can also field their position remain extremely valuable.

It's really no surprise that the Twins have been left behind by the shifting sands of time. And it's no surprise that they've failed to adjust at all.

Last year we had four first round picks (ours, plus the compensation picks from losing Hunter and Silva to free agency). We used three of them on pitchers, and just one on a position player -- who also happens to be a pitcher! We continue to focus most of our draft on pitching talent, and yet our top prospects are invariably the few hitters we decide to go for (Hicks, Revere, Ramos, Morales).

Perhaps it's time to reverse our philosophy for the top end of the draft: focus on hitters and get as many as you can, take a shot on a few high upside pitchers, and fill out the ranks of our pitchers later in the draft (since once you go lower down the list the value of pitchers vs hitters balances out -- it's merely the top hitters vs the top pitchers where there's a huge imbalance in value).

Do I think the Twins should do this? Absolutely. Do I think they actually will? Oh my, no.

Making a Splash: Crede Comes to Minnesota!

2009-02-21T00:00:00-08:00

The Twins have historically avoided Boras clients, because he drives up the cost of his players and is a very tough negotiator. Well, today we signed a Boras client -- Joe Crede * -- and really took it to Boras in the negotiating room.

* This news began to leak out late Friday night, and the Chicago Tribune was the first to call it that the deal was done. ESPN re-printed the article apparently without checking it; LEN3 and JoeC at the Star Tribune are a little more professional than that, however, and didn't want to call the deal done until it was actually official. As I tweeted, I wasn't buying it until we had the terms.

Conversations started with a base of $5M plus incentives, and Boras attempted to demand a base of $7M with incentives to push it over $11M. That's where the numbers stood for weeks, and it was beginning to look like the Twins would simply walk away, unwilling to take a risk like that on an injured player coming off two back surgeries. Until yesterday, when Crede presumably called Boras and said "Listen, Ass-Face*, there's only one team bidding, and I want to actually play baseball this year. Make it happen."

Apparently when Boras' leverage disappears, he's not so tough any more. The base salary is $2.5M, with incentives that could push is up to $7M if Crede has enough plate appearances. The bonuses begin at 250 PA; if he's hurt or ineffective, he won't even get that high, and will be cheaper than Mike Lamb.

* Scott "Ass-Face" Boras is a pretty fitting nickname, I think.

It's good to see that the market is taking back a little power in setting prices, rather than simply letting the supply side define what things will cost regardless of what they're worth. But more importantly, this is great for the Twins. Excellent third base defense and a right handed power bat on a ridiculously team friendly contract, for just one year.

We just got a 2+ win player for the price of 0.5-1.5 wins. For the first time in recent memory, the Twins have made a free agent signing that actually makes sense when you actually think about it. (Although the projection systems seem to think Crede's basically done, putting him somewhere in the 0-5-1 win range for 2009, I don't buy it. I don't think the Twins would have shown continued interest if they didn't think he could play; while we did have a hole at third base, it's not like we lacked a workable solution. I think he's due for a good season -- especially since he'll be playing for his next contract.)

I'm now excited about the entire infield -- with Crede and Punto* on the left side of the infield, nothing's getting through. Casilla and Morneau are no slouches on the right side either. With the outfield set such that any combination of our four starters has both better than adequate offense and defense (whether it's Young-Gomez-Span, Young-Gomez-Cuddyer, Young-Span-Cuddyer, Span-Gomez-Cuddyer, or any other combination, I feel pretty good about the outfield), the team suddenly looks really good.

* Did you know Punto's zone rating was the best in the AL for any shortstop who logged 500+ innings? Neither did I. That's awesome.

Frankly, it's amazing the difference one player can make. Especially when the team was essentially missing exactly one thing: a right handed power bat at third base. It's just gravy that he's got an excellent glove and is practically free.

Alright everyone. The Twins have made their splash! The season can start now!

Rick Anderson and Minor League Coaches

2009-02-20T00:00:00-08:00

Sirsean and I were discussing the other day the importance of Rick Anderson to the pitching staff. We decided it was totally overrated. Now, don't get me wrong, Anderson is a great pitching coach. However, we feel that he is getting too much credit for the performance of our pitchers. At least recently. The five current starters were studs in the minors and continued that success in the majors. Anderson does a fine job preparing them for games (much like Dave Duncan does for the Cards, for those of you who read "Three Nights in August"). But when it comes to pitcher development, all of that is done by the minor league instructors. The Twins have some of the best in the business in that regard. Everyone says "Andy (a terrible nickname by the by, its not so much a nickname as it is just a different name) will work his magic on so and so. When has he ever done this. Sidney Ponson? Ramon Ortiz? Livan Hernandez? The only old pitchers the Twins have had in the Gardy years that have been effective have been Rick Reed and Kenny Rogers. Both were above average when we got them, and just kept doing what they had been doing. Now, I'm sure developing pitchers is a small part of what a major league pitching coach does. So I'm by no means calling for Anderson to be fired, but can we stop calling him a pitching God? He pours over scouting reports with pitchers, and sets up a game plan for how they can use what they have to attack hitters. Oddly, he seems to preach groundballs, when most of our starters are extreme fly ball pitchers. When he comes along a pitcher who is more of a strikeout "thrower" (Matt Garza) instead of a control "pitcher" (Kevin Slowey) he doesn't know what to do. He tries to force everyone into his mold, even if that is not where the pitcher's strengths lie. It didn't work with Garza or Lohse. Everyone says it was because they are head cases (you can probably include me in that group). I do not think its fair to blame a player for getting frustrated when a coach is trying to change his approach this late (late being once he reaches the majors) in his career.

I am very happy with our current rotation, and how they play the game. Lets start giving credit to the Cliburn's and all the other minor league coaches, in addition to the credit Anderson gets. We should also stop assuming Anderson can work his "magic" on any crappy veteran pitcher we sign (RA Dickey, Luis Ayala, etc.) you can only coach up so much talent.

I'm sure everyone is thinking "Where in the hell do you get off criticizing the best pitching coach in the AL?" Fair point. I just wanted to bring this topic to light. Who are some of the other "projects" Anderson has worked on. Where has he succeeded and where has he failed? Silva is one that comes to mind where he both succeeded and failed.

Morneau is Great

2009-02-20T00:00:00-08:00

Justin Morneau is awesome.

"I've told Joe [Mauer], if he ever leaves me, I'll never speak to him again," Morneau said. "We've got to get him signed to an extension."

That is a great sentiment, and hopefully Morneau's long contract and ever-growing clubhouse influence go a long way towards convincing the front office to start throwing sacks full of money in Mauer's direction.

Also, does anyone else find it slightly amusing that Mauer's former roommate phrased it that way?

Offseason Recap

2009-02-19T00:00:00-08:00

The offseason isn't quite over yet, but the entire team is in Fort Myers, ready for Spring Training. Baseball season is right around the corner. And while there are still a few loose ends waiting to be tied up (or ignored), now seems like a good enough time to recap the Twins' offseason.

The team has not offered Type B free agent Dennys Reyes a contract, expecting a sandwich round compensation pick in return for him; that pick has not materialized as nobody else is more excited about Reyes than we are. There are rumblings today that if Reyes lowers his salary demands that he might return to the Twins. Despite the universal feeling that Reyes entering a game virtually ends it, he was worth 0.6 wins last season and could be worth up to $2M. Breslow was worth 0.8 wins, and giving him Reyes' job would probably work just fine, so retaining Reyes should not be a high priority item.

We signed Jason Kubel to a 2 year, $7M contract that buys out his remaining arbitration years, with an option for his first year of free agency. Statheads around the country laughed at our foolishness, because Kubel is worthless and in case you haven't noticed is slow and can't really play defense!!! But he's a DH, and is the third best hitter on the team behind Mauer and Morneau. He was already under team control, and the Twins just gave him a little security in return for cost control. There's nothing wrong with this deal, it's now up to Kubel to start hitting the ball over the fence.

Nick Punto cashed in once again; he's had two good seasons in his career -- 2006 and 2008 -- and both have netted him contracts. Other than that, he's been mediocre at best; his only value in a non-contract year is the fact that he's nominally capable of playing several positions. It's a 2 year, $8M deal, which appears to be right around the market value for a utility infielder these days; that is, if you don't also have someone like Tolbert on your team who can also play all the infield positions and not really hit all that well. There'll be a lot of Punto-related anger this season and presumably questions about Smith's abilities as a GM while Punto struggles mightily in 2009, but he'll have a good 2010 as he tries to prove he's worth another contract in two years. If his 2009 and 2010 are exactly as good as his 2005 and 2006 or his 2007 and 2008 were, the Twins will more than get their money back.

We released Mike Lamb with a year left on his contract, and are now paying him to sit on the bench for the Brewers. I know that happened during the season, but I want to point it out for this reason: he was the most expensive free agent acquisition in the history of the Twins franchise. In what sense is that not embarrassing?

We let Adam Everett walk in free agency, and he went to the Tigers. Everett came to the Twins along with a bunch of raving from the statistical community about his stellar defense. Unfortunately, he was injured most of the season and when he "toughed it up" and got onto the field, his arm was too weak to make the throw to first base. He was a cheap mistake, and letting him go is no big deal.

We did not sign any mediocre veteran starting pitchers. This is a huge step forward.

In addressing the hole at third base, we did not do very well. We balked at Casey Blake's asking price and let him go to the Dodgers. We balked at Ty Wigginton's demands for Blake-money, and let him sign with Baltimore for less-than-Lamb money. We balked at the Cubs' demands for Mark Derosa, and let them trade him to the Indians for peanuts. We balked at Joe Crede's demands to be paid like an All Star rather than an injury-riddled uncertainty. It appears the Twins are comfortable not spending money on third base and going with a Buscher/Harris platoon. They're justifying this now by saying that Buscher is really hitting the cover off the ball in batting practice; I'll point out that everyone said Buscher really hit the cover off the ball in Spring Training batting practice last year. It's time for him to prove he deserves to be around.

The other major hole on the team was late inning relief; the team needs a reliable setup man to act as a bridge to Nathan. Unwilling to give up a draft pick, the Twins threw the names of all Type A (ie, "good") free agents out the window and began hunting for bargains. It is not clear where exactly they were looking while bargain deals were being signed all winter by the likes of Affeldt and Nelson and others, but we finally settled on looking at Eric Gagne. We decided his demands for $3M were too much, and walked away from the table; days later he signed a minor league contract with the Brewers. We ended up signing Luis Ayala to a $1.3M deal that is apparently not guaranteed. It is completely unclear how Ayala will improve the late inning relief situation.

In order to make room for Ayala on the 40 man roster (a spot he may not even have a few weeks from now), the Twins put Bobby Korecky on waivers, and he was claimed by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Korecky had contributed -0.1 wins in 2008, but had had success in the minors and appeared to be ready to make some minor contributions. While it's not a huge deal to lose a 29 year old non-prospect who's performed below replacement level in the majors, it seems wrong to lose him for nothing.

And that's where we are right now. Through all these moves, the team has improved by 0.7 wins (almost all the improvement is Mike Lamb being gone -- he was worth -1.3 wins last year). That improvement is dwarfed by what could have been: +1.9 wins for Crede, +2.5 wins for Blake, +3.0 wins for Wigginton, +3.8 wins for Derosa. (Of course, Blake, Wigginton, and Derosa are almost sure to fail to live up to the expectations they set in 2008 and may never again reach those levels of performance. And Crede could either surpass those numbers or get injured and produce close to nothing. The Twins have never been one for big risks.)

Ultimately, the Twins are where they had hoped to be at the beginning of the offseason: hoping for continued excellence from Mauer and Morneau, a good bounceback season from Cuddyer and Liriano, and a strong step forward from several of the talented young players on the roster. It is by no means a bad place to be -- there are plenty of teams where you can look over the roster and pick out a few guys who simply shouldn't be on the team, and the Twins really aren't there. We have guys who may not work out and may not deserve to be in the majors, but they haven't proven it yet.

It was an offseason of standing in place and looking forward to the next season. I appreciate that, but it's been going on long enough. It's time to take this offseason to the glue factory and get to some baseball.

Twins Let Korecky Slip Away

2009-02-18T00:00:00-08:00

Another reason to get angry.

Bobby Korecky is gone. For nothing. He was selected off waivers by the Diamondbacks, which "conveniently" opens up a space on the 40 man roster for Luis Ayala.

I suppose Korecky was probably last on the list of relievers on the bubble (Bonser, Humber, Breslow, Mijares, Korecky), but I don't see any reason to just throw him away in favor of a proven bad pitcher like Ayala, who will cost three times as much.

Korecky didn't actually do all that well in the majors last season, and was worth -0.1 wins. Meanwhile, Ayala was worth +0.1 despite his struggles. And Ayala is projected to have a better FIP than Korecky in 2009.

But I've always said that doing nothing is better than doing something stupid. I'm not really happy about this move. It doesn't seem like it helps the team at all, and we lose a valuable asset (an arm that can get outs) without getting anything in return. That's the worst kind of move.

Can anyone think of a reason this is an acceptable move?

Obligatory Spring Training Preview Post

2009-02-17T00:00:00-08:00

Well, we have spent most of the offseason debating who will start where, who will make the team, etc. So this preview seems a little unnecessary, but with the addition of Ayala, and the excitement of baseball in the air, lets do it.

As everyone knows, pretty much 22 of 25 roster spots are locked. Barring injury or freak under-performance the only battles will be for the two remaining bullpen spots, and the 4th bench spot.

Pitcher locks: Baker, Liriano, Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins, Breslow, Guerrier, Ayala, Crain, Nathan (10). This leaves two spots up for grabs. The guys fighting for the last two spots will be: Bonser, Humber, Mijraes, Korecky. If the Twins hadn't signed Ayala, I would say Mijares would be a lock. Bonser's recent shoulder trouble could complicate matters, but my guess is Boof and Humber make the team with Mijares being on the first flight out at the first sign of trouble.

Position Player Locks: Mauer, Redmond, Morneau, Casilla, Punto, Buscher, Harris, Cuddyer, Span, Young, Kubel, and Gomez. (12). That leaves one bench spot up for grabs. The favorite here has to be Matt Tolbert. He endeared himself to Twins fans and Gardy last year by trying really hard. He is valuable in that he can play many positions in the infield, which is great when we have 12 pitchers and a third base platoon. Harris will be able to backup at several other spots too.

So there you have it. Barring anything out of the ordinary, there are three roster spots up for grabs. We have two young pitchers who are out of options and might make the team because of that. I think they should both be given a shot, since I hate trading away pitching sight unseen. However, if we can get something good in return for one of them, do it.

Notice how I didn't mention Joe Crede? If we do end up with him, I could see Buscher moving into the "fighting with Tolbert for a spot" category. Since Harris is more valuable than Buscher as a bench player. Thats all you get on Crede. Does anyone have a drastically different take on this? Or is this pretty much how everyone thinks things will pan out?

Not Enough Anti-WBC Pressure

2009-02-17T00:00:00-08:00

This morning we learned that Liriano is considering skipping the WBC in favor of spending as much time as he can with the Twins and getting ready for the season.

Overall, I think this is great news. However, that news is followed by this disastrous line:

Liriano said no one has put pressure on him to pull out of the tournament, but he’s definitely thinking about it. He said he will speak with the Twins to get their thoughts.

Are you kidding me? Why in blazes has there been no pressure put on him? Are people too afraid to be accused of being anti-patriotism or something?

Seriously. Players are leaving their teams, who pay them millions of dollars, and enter into a situation in which they can easily get injured. Just for the sake of some flag waving. And for the Cubans to trot out a crappy old lineup based not on talent but on loyalty to the government. And for Japan to rub our faces in their crappy league rules with plenty of major league talent that should be making real money here in America.

Forget this. When Liriano talks to the Twins, they'd better put some pressure on him -- subtle if possible, less so if necessary -- to stay the hell away from the WBC and within sight of Rick Anderson for the entire spring.

God Damn Eric Gagne and Scott Boras

2009-02-17T00:00:00-08:00

Ah ha! Remember all those times I harped on the fact that other teams and agents seem to be out to screw the Twins? Well, it continues to happen.

After declining a $3M offer from the Twins, Eric Gagne turned around and signed a minor league contract with the Brewers. A non-guaranteed deal.

Are you kidding me?

This is not a case of the Twins "failing to spend enough money," or being bad at negotiations. This is simply a case of an agent and a player going out of their way to take an inferior deal from a less successful, inferior team rather than deal with the Twins.

Is there really anyone that thinks the Brewers are going anywhere this year after losing Sabathia and Sheets? This is not a case of a player choosing to go with the team it thinks has a better shot at the playoffs.

This is, simply, a bunch of crap. Why did we have to pay $1.3M for piece of crap Luis Ayala and guarantee him a spot on the team, when we could have spent <$1M on piece of crap Eric Gagne (with the benefit of a modicum of upside) and not guarantee him a spot on the team? It had nothing to do with a failing on the part of the front office.

Maybe it's just me, like everything else seems to be, but this is infuriating.

Penny Wise and Pound Foolish

2009-02-13T00:00:00-08:00

Speaking of Delmon Young, I think we just found out why he's taking whatever endorsement deals he can find before his stardom reaches anywhere beyond FireGardy.com ... the Twins decided to jack him out of a bit of salary.

Under the collective bargaining agreement, the Twins had a right to cut Delmon Young’s salary by 20 percent this year. Including his pro-rated signing bonus, he made $1,440,000 last year, so the least the Twins could pay him was $1,152,000. On Thursday, the Twins signed Young for that amount, exactly.

While I personally think it's a bunch of crap that non-free-agent players can only take a 20% pay cut, and that we're responsible for pro-rating the signing bonus Tampa Bay decided to give him, and that he was worth (negative!)$2.4M in 2008 (scroll to the bottom), this isn't exactly the kind of thing that'll make a player happy.

Given that it was a bit of a struggle for him last year, and he didn't live up to our expectations, I understand that we wouldn't exactly want to give him a raise. But given that everyone else in the entire f'ing league gets a raise, I can also see why he might be a little pissed off that we decided to give him the absolute minimum we were allowed to. Maybe splitting the difference would have worked a bit better? Seriously, we're talking about $150K for a team that's $20M below its budget.

And by doing what we can to save a couple of bucks, we risk awakening the thoughts in Delmon's head that he formerly stated about Tampa Bay; his stated plan to "do [his] six and bolt."

Hopefully this pisses Delmon off enough that he hits a hell of a lot better this year, but not enough that he wants to leave the Twins at his first opportunity. I don't want our players counting the days until they can leave.

Delmon's Image Management Needs as Much Work as his Plate Discipline

2009-02-13T00:00:00-08:00

I don't like talking about steroids any more than the next guy, but there's a certain climate right now, regarding performance enhancing drugs. You really want to keep them at arm's length. This wouldn't be the best time to, say, get yourself linked to an absurdly sketchy drug. Right?

Someone needs to tell Delmon that now is not the best time for this. And what the hell is Quercetin?

And ... wouldn't this mysterious drug company want to connect themselves to a player who could, you know, hit or run?

The Economy Has No Effect On Twins, or This Website

2009-02-12T00:00:00-08:00

Hello again everyone!

I was suffering through an all-company meeting all week, and didn't have access to my computer. Little happened Twins-wise this week, so we didn't really miss out on anything. But I know (or, more accurately, assume) that there are millions (dozens) of you out there desperately wondering what exactly those jerks over at Fire Gardy are thinking these days.

Well, to be honest, not all that much at the moment. But fortunately, there's a little bit of news that the Twins continue to claim that they're not suffering from the "downturn" in the "economy" (whatever that is/means).

While they point out that they do fear a drop in walk-up ticket sales, they constantly brag about the record season ticket sales. Boo ya, you fans! We're getting your money even if you don't feel like coming to the games!

Well, that $20M profit the Twins banked last season when they weren't coming anywhere close to their stated "goal" of spending 52% of revenue on player salaries has been spent well: we signed Luis Ayala and are doing our best to short-shrift Joe Crede! We're totally not stealing from you.

Well, I just want to take this time to point out that the revenues of Fire Gardy have also managed not to crater during this economic downturn; in fact, we've managed to hit our revenue projections right on the nose. And we, like the Twins, promise not to spend that money on signing Joe Crede.

Sorry for the substance-free week, everyone. It's the last week before spring training, and everyone's in hiding before they have to report and pretend that they've actually been trying to stay in shape over the excruciatingly long offseason. (By the way, whose idea was it to leave three months between the end of the World Series and the beginning of Spring Training? I would like them to buy a Free Jason Kubel t-shirt, so I can find out their address and kick their anti-American face.)

You heard me. Go Twins.

A-Fraud

2009-02-07T00:00:00-08:00

Well, didn't see that coming. Apparently A-Rod tested positive for PEDs in 2003, the year he won the MVP. I always group A-Rod in the "Griffey, Manny, Big Hurt" category. An out of this world talent who didn't need steroids to be better than everyone. He was never oddly giant like Bonds, McGwire, or Sosa, he could just flat out hit. We are kind of isolated from the whole roids issue as Twins fans, mainly because players who use roids tend to be a)expensive, and b) Boras clients.

I don't hate A-Rod as much as most people. So what if he is highly paid. If I could convince someone to pay me 25 mil a year, I'd do it in a heartbeat. It seemed like all his off the field weirdness (madonna, creepy obbsession with jeter, etc.) didn't start until he moved to the Bronx. I guess this just goes to show you, that everyone was doing it. It starts to make me question the rest of the elite hitters currently in the game. Especially the power hitters. Mauer clearly isn't on steroids because I think the odds of him hitting 20 homers in a season are about the same as the odds of me doing so. Morneau is from Canada, so he is fueled by maple syrup and beer. Is there anyone on the twins that you feel is on steroids or is likely to start. Delmon comes to mind for some reason. I could see him buckling under the pressure of "No. 1 pick".

Twins Upgrade the Back End of the Bullpen, Are Confused

2009-02-06T00:00:00-08:00

Just hours after new owner Jim Pohlad assured the writers that the offseason isn't over, and that the Twins were looking at upgrading third base and late inning relief, we receive news that they have indeed "upgraded" their late inning relief options by signing Luis Ayala.

He's guaranteed $1.3M for 2009, with up to $575K in performance bonuses. Last season he had a 4.47 FIP in 75.2 IP, with 5.95 K/9 and 2.85 BB/9. While these secondary numbers are better than his traditional stats -- 2-10 with a 5.75 ERA -- I still don't really understand this signing given that we were allegedly looking at other relief options that are all better than Ayala. Last year he was worth 0.0 wins above replacement, for a grand total of $0.1M in free market value.

In fact, he hasn't been worth more than 0.2 wins over replacement since 2004 with the Expos.

This is the kind of guy you offer a minor league contract and an invitation to spring training; not a guy to whom you guarantee a roster spot and over a million dollars. He's the definition of replacement level, and this signing demonstrates that the Twins either aren't paying attention to the market or have absolutely no idea how to value relievers.

But at least we've added another warm body to an already-crowded back end of the bullpen. That should be worth more than a couple blown games this season.

Time to Extend Baker

2009-02-06T00:00:00-08:00

Last week, a rumor about signing Scott Baker to a long term contract came and went without much fanfare.

"I have definitely entertained the idea of it." Baker said recently of a possible multi-year deal. "I like this place. I like playing here. I like the coaching staff and obviously we have a great clubhouse. It's kind of up to them, but I definitely have thought about it."

Okay, it's up to the Twins. Would they do something like that?

"Historically, we've done deals with players as they get to two, three and four years of service time," Antony said. "And I think that's something we'll continue to do."

Yes, they have. Morneau, Kubel, Mauer, Santana, Crain. But would Scott Baker be worth a long term deal right now? They say that the last year before they hit arbitration is the best year to ink them to a deal, so you can buy out their arbitration years and give them some security when they had none, but before they're sniffing free agency just around the corner. That's where Baker is right now, so let's see what a contract would look like.

In 2007, Baker's free market value was $11.7M, and in 2008 it was $15.4M. That's what a pitcher who consistently puts up good numbers is worth. (And I'm looking at FIP here, not W and ERA which are much more dependent on teammates.) His 2007 FIP was 3.89; in 2008 it was 3.79. His numbers are consistent, and good. So let's say his market value is somewhere between 2007 and 2008, and stays there until he's 30 (three years from now), at which point he will start to decline at a typical rate of 10% per year.

So his market values for the next four years, let's say, are $12M, $12M, $12M, $10.8M. That is absolutely not the contract we should give him; that's what we would pay if these weren't his arbitration years. The general guideline for arbitration salaries is that they are an increasing percentage of the player's market value: 20%/40%/80% or 40%/60%/80% in the three arbitration years. When signing a player through his last pre-arbitration years, some teams get 20/20/40/80, others get 20/40/60/80 or something along those lines.

If the Twins got a team-friendly 20/20/40/80 contract, Baker's yearly salary would be $2.4M, $2.4M, $4.8M, $8.6M. If it were the more player-friendly 20/40/60/80 deal, his contract would look like $2.4M, $4.8M, $7.2M, $8.6M. So we're probably looking at something in the range between 4/$18M and 4/$23M for a fair deal. Toss one or two $10-12M team options on the end with $2-3M buyouts, and you've probably got yourself a deal.

The problem with doing this for the Twins is:

Baker could get hurt.
This is what they'd be paying him if he doesn't improve from where he is, so why give him the long term deal?
Security breeds lack of motivation in some cases.

If Baker continues to improve as a pitcher, he'll earn more than $23M over his arbitration years. If he gets hurt or craps out, he gets nothing. The security of $20M would probably be enough to get him to sign the deal and help out the team.

I think the Twins should get this done and lock up the most consistent pitcher on the team through his arbitration years. Not only would it probably help the team and have minimal downside (Baker does not have an injury history and has a simple, non-violent delivery), but it would send the right message to the fans and the players.

What do you think about a possible Baker extension?

Team Defense

2009-02-05T00:00:00-08:00

Remember when we were clamoring for the Twins to acquire a strong hitter at the expense of a bit of fielding? That we'd rather have a big time slugger in left field than a sure handed weakling like Jason Tyner. Well, we may have been a little mistaken. From Baseball Prospectus:

STAT OF THE DAY Worst Defensive Teams of 2008 Team, PADE Reds, -3.83 Rangers, -3.40 Pirates, -3.17 Twins, -2.51 Mariners, -2.44

The Twins had been one of the better defending teams in the league for several years, until 2008 rolled around and we slotted Delmon Young into left and Lamb/Buscher into third and Brendan Harris into a middle infield spot. End result? We had the fourth worst defense in baseball.

PADE stands for "Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency." Defensive efficiency is a simple measure of the percentage of balls in play that the defense converts into outs -- this, after all, is the most important thing about a defense.

The statistic is then "park adjusted" to make Fenway look impossible to play in, thus inflating the statistics of the Red Sox and all their players. Other than Fenway, though, the park adjustment tends to normalize between parks, so we have a way to compare teams that have easy home fields to teams that don't.

I think it's telling that none of the other teams in the bottom five even sniffed the playoffs. These are bad teams, and bad teams have the worst defenses. Frankly, the Twins' luck with men on base essentially balanced out the poor defense.

Something I feel the need to question regarding defensive efficiency is that it ignores the contribution of the pitcher. A pitcher who induces a lot of popups will make his defense look good when read by PADE; conversely, a pitcher who gives up nothing but hard line drives to the gaps will make his defense look awful.

And we had Livan Hernandez on our team for much of the year.

So, with the rest of the league deciding that defense is actually important, the Twins picked something of an inopportune time to sacrifice their defense. But I think Delmon will be a little better this year, and subbing Cuddyer in for him every now and then will probably help. Keeping Harris out of the middle infield and getting rid of Lamb will probably also help. And Livan is gone, so no more batting practice for our opponents.

Hopefully that balances out the impending decline in hitting with men in scoring position.

Slow News Day Updates

2009-02-05T00:00:00-08:00

In a post that's sure to angry up the blood of many fans, JoeC points out the Twins' plans for the rest of the offseason.

In speaking with Twins officials this week, they seem about 90 percent certain there won’t be any notable changes to the roster before spring training. Obviously, we’ll let you know if that changes.

No surprise there, nor is there anything wrong with that. As I've been saying all along.

The Twins are convinced it’s better to do nothing than to do something silly, just for the sake of making a move. They insist other teams have been asking for too much in trades.

It's definitely better to do nothing than to do something still just for the sake of doing something. I often think fans just want the team to make a move so they can criticize its foolishness.

And I've also pointed out numerous times that teams think, for some reason, that they can get more out of the Twins than they can get out of any other team. And that if they're going to make a trade and get a less-than-outstanding haul, that they'd rather do it with another team than with the Twins. I don't know why this is, but it continues.

They’re convinced their internal bullpen options (Jesse Crain, Jose Mijares, Matt Guerrier, Boof Bonser, etc.) are just as likely to pan out as late-inning setup guys as the remaining free agents.

Due to the volatility of relievers, this could very well be true. Of course, by the same logic, Crain/Mijares/Guerrier/Bonser might all fail miserably this season. But so might anyone we pick up and pay big money for. I still fail to see any reason to pay significant dollars for relievers, despite how important a good bullpen is to a team's success.

I’d say the best chance of a move would be a Joe Crede signing, but I keep hearing he’s at 75 percent, and the Twins don’t want to shell out $5 million in guaranteed money (plus incentives) unless they know he’s healthy. If they can get the asking price down in guaranteed money, or if Crede would get closer to 90-95 percent, they might have a match. If not, they’ll move forward with their third base platoon of Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher.

I think that's interesting; at least they've given a legitimate reason for not wanting to sign Crede, which is more than they did re: Wigginton. But I'm of the opinion that the team that decides to take a chance on Crede isn't going to be disappointed. Hopefully when he gets up to 90% he'll prefer coming to the Twins to stick it in the face of the hated White Sox. But I wouldn't count on it.

Slow news day, but at least the Strib is spouting something that makes sense, rather than some inanity about groundskeepers or Jarrod Washburn.

Guerrier Saved From the Arbitration Embarrassment

2009-02-05T00:00:00-08:00

So the Twins have come to an agreement with Guerrier, avoiding arbitration.

First, let's go ahead and assess the value of the deal. They met in the midpoint of their posted salaries, and Guerrier will be paid $1.475M in 2009. Will he be worth that?

Well, in 2008 he was worth -0.4 wins above replacement (ie, we would have been better off murdering him and having an average AA pitcher take over his innings ... ouch). In dollar terms, that was -$1.9M. Certainly less that what we're paying for in 2009. In 2007, however, he had the best season of his career, worth +0.9 wins, or $3.7M. (+1 win is extremely good for a middle reliever -- it almost never happens.)

In 2006, he was worth +0.1 wins, which was $0.5M on the free market. According to FanGraphs, his projected FIP and IP will be right in line with his 2006 season (well below 2007, but well above 2008). They're essentially saying Guerrier will be about replacement level in 2009. Which means we absolutely shouldn't be paying him $1.475M; except that he only has to be worth +0.3 wins for us to get what we paid for, and that's not a huge jump from his projection. I'd say this deal is roughly market value, and that the Twins are probably expecting Guerrier to bounce back to around his 2006 level of performance. Guerrier was probably expecting to get paid for his 2007 level of performance, and hopefully he isn't too miffed that it didn't happen.

Okay ... now I want to say something about the fact that the Twins actually struck a deal before going to arbitration. This was a case they probably could have won if they wanted to, given how terrible Guerrier was last year. But winning or losing in arbitration isn't really as important as going there in the first place. In arbitration, teams make a case about why a player sucks and is worthless, to an impartial arbitrator, and the player has to sit there and listen. It's not exactly good for relations between the player and the team.

Well, the Twins are one of the organizations that likes to avoid that for players it considers part of the organizational family, if you will. They gave Morneau a contract last year to avoid arbitration, meanwhile they didn't stop negotiating a longer term deal; basically, they just didn't want to take him to arbitration because he's part of the team's future. The same is true for most players. Kyle Lohse, for example, went to arbitration every year he was eligible for it. Surely, Matt Garza would have also.

If the Twins don't like you, they'll take you to arbitration and tell you how much they don't want you around and how little they think you're worth. If they do like you, they'll make sure they get you signed before that happens.

So I think the act of signing Guerrier is more important than the actual dollar amount. It means the Twins think he can bounce back and be useful, and that they probably want him to stick around once he hits free agency.

We'll see if he's still got an arm by then.

Wednesday News and Notes

2009-02-04T00:00:00-08:00

Nick and Nick have an interesting take on the whole Washburn nonsense today. The suggest that if the Twins are so desperate to sign a pitcher with "veteran" in front of his name, they should go after Ben Sheets. I like the idea. Although I don't think they will, because our rotation is set, but lets think about this. Washburn is set to make 10.3 million next year. If we were to trade for him we would have to pick up at least half of that. Considering that Washburn is terrible and has no upside, what is the point? Haven't they learned from the Sidney Ponson's of the world? The closer we get to pitchers and catcher, the cheaper someone like Sheets will be. He will probably be available on a one year deal, for around the same, or less, as Washburn. Sheets has tremendous upside and even if he pitches 100 innings will probably be worth more than washburn. We have enough depth in the rotation, that if (when) he goes down he can be replaced with someone good.

I do not think this will happen. I'm just saying, that if this team really wants "veteran" leadership, why not get someone who is not only a veteran, but also a good pitcher? See how these crazy Washburn rumors affect me? I think whoever gets Sheets, will be getting a hell of a deal. However, the Twins are having enough problems making room for their pitchers (namely Bonser and Humber) that adding someone as risky as Sheets will force us to get rid of someone who could be a very reliable reliever/spot starter. Obviously we should pass on adding any starting pitching. As you all know, I do not support handing people jobs based on past performance, but all five of those guys deserve to be in our starting rotation on opening day.

This might be the worst post I have ever written, but it was written over about two hours intermittently, so my train of thought is off. So to summarize: we shouldn't add a starting pitcher just because we think we need "veteran" leadership. When will we start calling Baker a "veteran"? I know he looks like he is 12, but c'mon. IF the team for some reason feels the need to add a "veteran" presence, instead of paying an expensive, no upside guy, why not sign an expensive high upside guy if the price is similar?

Obviously not much else is going on in Twins land these days. We discussed the cheap signing of Ty Wigginton. It looks like the Twins are going to go into spring training with the roster they had last year. I'm not comfortable with the fact that there aren't too many competitions going on in spring training. I feel that always brings out the best. The OF competition should be interesting. Obviously all four guys will make the team, hopefully Gardy gives them all equal reps in spring training. This year might be the first year in a long time where Gardy really has to "manage" game in and game out. We have a platoon at third, and a platoon of sorts in the OF. In the past (for the most part) the lineup was "set it and forget it". No he has to consider matchups each game. The third base platoon should be fairly straigh forwards. Harris against lefties, Buscher against righties. The OF will be a little bit more work. He will have to look at how players have faired against certain pitchers. This will be difficult since three of them (Young, Gomez, Span) have very limited major league experience, therefore can't possibly have much of a track record against anyone. I'm afraid Cuddyer will unfairly be favored and instead of 4 guys rotating through 3 positions, it will be 3 rotating through 3. The DH spot will probably be open against most lefites, and Young or Cuddyer and step in on those days, and then the outfield will be set by default.

What other roster spots are guys competing for? Is it just the utility infielder? I would assume Tolbert is far and away the leader for that spot.

The Pitching Pipeline

2009-02-04T00:00:00-08:00

I know I've been harping on the fact that the Twins are a pitching-rich organization lately, and I also know that all of are very familiar with our young pitchers. But tonight, FanGraphs has a post up about the Twins organization's cache of pitching talent.

Aside from pointing out that all our pitchers are 27 or younger, they bring up an "even more talented" young pitcher who'll be in AAA this year. Anthony Swarzak. I've been high on this guy for a couple of years now, and he's still just 23 years old despite having been drafted in 2004.

He has a 94 MPH fastball and a plus curveball, and is working on his changeup.

Of course, Swarzak was suspended last year for drug use -- don't worry, it was just "recreational," not performance enhancing -- and that could be an indication that he has makeup problems.

Given that teams are starting to get enamored by Swarzak's talent, and that young pitching is becoming more and more valuable around the league, it might be time to start thinking about trading Swarzak away. While we might prefer to trade Perkins and promote Swarzak, teams tend to prefer "potential" over "has struggled thus far in the majors," so we might get more for Swarzak than Perkins.

You might question the wisdom of trading away some of our almost-major-league-ready talent from AAA, as the White Sox have foolishly been doing, but it's more than possible because of the aforementioned young rotation. Given the fact that our entire rotation is under team control for the next 2-5 years, we can unload some guys from AAA this year (and next year, and the next) while we wait for the next wave to arrive: guys like Jeff Manship and Shooter Hunt and the rest of the big guns striking everyone out in A ball.

It's a debatable situation, but we should all remember that most teams don't get to debate something like this.

With a talented, young starting rotation already established at the Major League level, the Twins have time to be patient with Swarzak and allow him to mature in the minors - both as a pitcher and as a person. Many organizations in baseball would love to have that luxury.

Well said. Whether we keep Swarzak or not, our pitching pipeline is still the envy of the league.

Olney's Positions of Interest

2009-02-04T00:00:00-08:00

This morning, Buster Olney went over all the teams in the majors and highlighted their positions of interest. For most teams, he focused on what they need to add, or what's going to be a problem for them (ie, the Yankees are starting Melky Cabrera at CF, and the Red Sox have Varitek at C). But, for the Twins, it was a slightly different story.

Minnesota Twins: Outfield, designated hitter Twins GM Bill Smith broke down the competition for playing time in an e-mail: "We have five established players for three outfield spots and the DH -- Michael Cuddyer,Carlos Gomez, Jason Kubel, Denard Span and Delmon Young. They give us depth and versatility … three right-handed hitters and two left-handed hitters, and a combination of speed and power. [Manager Ron Gardenhire] will make the decisions on lineups and positions. It poses a challenge to keep everyone happy and playing, but it also gives us depth in the case of an injury."

This is nothing we haven't heard (and discussed) before. But I think it's telling that the team's biggest "problem" this offseason is that we have a bunch of good players and no extremely pressing needs.

"We have depth in case of injury" is not a problem for the fans to get worked up about.

"We have a handedness-based platoon at third base" is not a problem to get worked up about.

"We're not going to get offensive production out of our shortstop" is not a problem to get worked up about. (Just about nobody gets offense from SS. Don't sweat Punto that much as long as he's holding his own. He doesn't have to be Joe Mauer to be successful.)

"We have at least five starters who we want in the rotation" is not a problem.

"We're not wasting money" is not a problem.

So our main problem, according to Olney, is that we have one too many OF/DH players that should be starting, and that we have to trust Gardy's decision-making. (Based on playing time for Delmon and Kubel, I am very afraid of having to trust Gardy's decision-making, given that he hates both these guys.)

What about the White Sox?

Chicago White Sox: Starting pitcher The White Sox are counting on Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd to man three-fifths of their rotation, and they like what they've seen out of Bartolo Colon. But they need someone to emerge at the back end.

So they're short a starter and are relying on Bartolo Colon to actually pitch well for a full season. You're kidding, right? Having 3/5 of a rotation is a pretty significant problem; it wouldn't be so bad if they had anyone in the high minors, but Danks and Floyd were just harvested and they've unloaded all their pitching prospects in the last year or two to acquire Swisher and Quentin. Especially in their home park, they're going to be struggling with run prevention 2 out of every 5 days.

Or the Tigers?

Detroit Tigers: Starting rotation Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski said recently that he feels good about the depth he has in starting pitchers and could conceivably have so much that he can make a trade. Among those in the running for the No. 4 and No. 5 slots in the rotation: Armando Galarraga, Zach Miner and a supposedly slimmer Dontrelle Willis.

Galarraga's pretty good, but the Tigers and their $120M+ payroll will be relying on Zach Miner and Dontrelle Willis to hold down a spot in their rotation. Is Dave Dombrowski the only person who thinks that's going to go well (or is, in some sense, considered "depth")? Or has someone else lost their mind?

Cleveland Indians: Starting pitcher The back end of the Indians' rotation could be a problem area, but the Indians don't lack for candidates behind No. 1 starter Cliff Lee and No. 2 starter Fausto Carmona --Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, Carl Pavano, Anthony Reyes and David Huff are all going to get chances to distinguish themselves in spring training.

Behind the top two in their rotation, they have a bunch of spare parts that will be fighting it out. And does anyone really think Cliff Lee is going to win another Cy Young award?

This is why I'm not freaking out. All the other contenders in our division are struggling to find starting pitchers, while we're pitching-rich. And pitching is hugely important.

Compared to "We only have three starters," or "We only have four starters," or "We only have two starters," well, "We have four outfielders" just doesn't sound so bad.

Red Faces, Blue Faces; Wigginton and Washburn

2009-02-03T00:00:00-08:00

Oh my, is Bill Smith's face red!

When the Twins stopped looking at Ty Wigginton, the implication was that his asking price was higher than Casey Blake's, and that the Twins didn't value him that highly. Well, now he signed with the Orioles, for two years and six million dollars. That's right. Less than Mike Lamb, except right handed, not a complete dipshit, and with the remote possibility of being decent; and coming off a huge offensive year.

I'm not usually one to scream "Fire!" in a crowded movie theater, but this signing is a disaster. It's one thing to say "We don't think Wigginton is worth $18M," but it's quite another to say "We don't think he's worth $6M." And by the way, he absolutely is. Over the past three seasons, he's been worth $5.6M, $5.6M, and $13.5M. I figure he'll drop back down to somewhere in the $5-6M range in 2009 and probably a bit below that in 2010, which means the Orioles just signed a ludicrously team friendly contract. You don't think we could have enticed him with something along the lines of "You'll play on a contender, you'll be protected by two of the best left handed hitters in the game, and you never have to face a left handed pitcher if you don't want" or something along those lines? How in blazes did the Baltimore Orioles convince him to go there? And here we are, hands in pockets, letting good deals pass us by while we have money to spend.

Oh. Speaking of which, the other bit of "news" mentioned in that article is something I wasn't planning to mention, because it seemed so stupid that nobody would even bother caring about it. A Seattle newspaper is reporting that the Twins and Mariners have been talking about a Delmon Young for Jarrod Washburn and Jeff Clement swap.

JoeC's analysis is, well, let's just say "interesting:"

If that’s true — and we haven’t confirmed this – perhaps the Twins had plans to spin Clement off as part of another deal. The Twins have this Mauer guy at catcher, and one of their top prospects is catcher Wilson Ramos.

Given our recent history of making trades, we'd probably fail to trade Clement and release him instead. Or send him to the Red Sox for a thirty second video of Theo Epstein laughing hysterically at us. Either way, why would we want to deal for a no-field catcher whose only other defensive abilities include 1B and DH? (You know, the only other two positions that we have guys locked into, besides C.)

But he really just falls off the wagon regarding Washburn:

The Washburn part makes sense, however. The Twins tried getting him last summer. Washburn, a Wisconsin native, will make $10.35 million this season in the final year of his contract. The Mariners are trying to shed salary, so they can add Bobby Abreu or Ken Griffey, Jr., and the Twins have room to add.

Oh, okay then, acquiring Washburn makes sense because:

The Twins mistakenly tried to acquire him during last season because they really didn't want Liriano winning games for them.
Washburn is from Wisconsin.
Washburn will make over $10M this season.
The Mariners want to get rid of his contract.
The Twins have a bit of extra money in the budget.

This all follows pretty logically, I think. I mean seriously, how could the Twins possibly not make this deal after considering those foolproof bullet points?

Wait, what's that you said? None of those sound like benefits to the Twins? You mean the Twins are not obligated to make talentless millionaires and poorly run organizations happy? Why, where's the goodness in your heart?! The Twins are a charity, not a baseball team!

You have got to be kidding me. Whoever started this rumor wasn't thinking straight, and the Twins people who are "thinking" about it aren't thinking straight either.

The Twins have the best catcher in baseball established behind the plate, and he'll be here for two more years unless we do something smart and extend his ass. We also have a big time prospect coming up to replace him by the name of Wilson Ramos, who also has the advantage of being a bit of a power hitter. They are not going to acquire a catcher.

The Twins also have a cadre of talented young starting pitchers, and a whole set of them waiting in the minors to replace them. This is the primary strength of the organization. They have no need to pay $10M + talented players to acquire a guy who wouldn't even be good enough to start for us.

For reference: Jarrod Washburn hasn't been worth $10.35M since 2002, when he was with the Angels. He has basically sucked ever since. Over the last three years he's been worth $6.9M, $7.6M, and $5.7M while getting paid $7.5M, $9.9M, and $9.9M. You simply cannot tell me that the Twins would be better off by overpaying him to lose for us?

Delmon Young still has a whole bunch of talent and a whole bunch of potential, and is just 23 years old. Is now really the time to sell low on him? I mean, it'd be a good time to buy low, but shouldn't the Twins actually get something out of a potential deal, as opposed to just making sure it works for everyone else?

I could shout about this until I'm blue in the face. In fact, I have been for a few minutes.

February Sucks

2009-02-02T00:00:00-08:00

So now we have nothing to do sports-wise until pitchers and catcher report in two weeks. And even then, watching Boof Bonser run wind sprints on the local news every night is not something I look forward to. We have analyzed and debated pretty much everything there is to argue about the Twins. Possible trade, possible signing, potential lineups, potential bench players, the list goes on. As someone who seems to have an opinion/conspiracy theory about everything, I can honestly say I have run out of topics on the Twins. For now. We've been at this for about a year now. We might be the only people who thought it would be a good idea to start a baseball blog in January, but I want to thank everyone who has been reading us on a regular basis. Thats right, all three of you.

The new Twins ad aired during the game last night, I thought it was OK. Not sure why Target field would be receiving a delivery of lumber. Are they planning on making lots of things out of wood? Also, why are our highly paid athletes driving trucks? While wearing uniforms? Is Pohlad (I know he is "dead", but I think its all a scam for tax purposes) that cheap that he is putting them to work in the off season as truck drivers? Isn't that a union thing, I hope the teamsters don't sabotage the construction site. As you can see, by that previous line of questions I have begun to go crazy due to lack of baseball, or exciting baseball related news.

That is all.

Pat Neshek's Progress

2009-01-31T00:00:00-08:00

Buster Olney recently spoke to Pat Neshek via email, and published Neshek's response:

"So far the rehab is going good. Right now it really isn't much for rehab -- just a couple exercises that take about 20 minutes to do. I have been in Minnesota since the surgery on Nov. 18th. I will be heading down to Florida on the 14th of February, and reporting at the same time as the rest of the guys. "My throwing will begin around mid-March, and that is when the rehab starts to pick up a bunch. We should have a pretty good team again this year, everyone is a year older … I'm crossing my fingers we sign another guy here, but like the past, I think most of our guys aren't expecting anything to happen. I'll be in Ft. Myers [Fla.] all season rehabbing and watching the guys on the Extra Innings package."

My initial reaction is that it's pretty awesome that Neshek seems to be so quick to respond to people via email; I wonder if that will get more common as a younger generation of players moves up into the major leagues. My second reaction is that it'd be pretty cool to have Neshek's email address.

My third reaction is that I should never have an email conversation with Buster Olney, because he seems to publish these things a lot. And I'm a vulgar, insulting person who goes overboard frequently. I don't want that getting out.

What? You wanted me to actually talk about what Neshek said? I don't have much to say about that. It's refreshingly honest, it doesn't seem like he's just spouting the usual "I'm on schedule, leave me alone" cliche. But there's really no news -- we already know he's going to be out all season.

It is interesting, though, to hear from a guy who grew up a Twins fan and is now on the team. He's wishing, like the rest of the fans, that we add another player. But now that he's a player he has a slightly different perspective and a view into the clubhouse. Pretty great. I'm glad Olney violated Neshek's privacy and published this email.

Also, Pat Neshek is now on record agreeing with me that the Twins are going to be pretty good this year. Just wanted to point that out.

On a slightly sadder note, what do you think the odds are that Neshek will fully recover and regain his former effectiveness? Or is he cooked?

The Crede Issue

2009-01-30T00:00:00-08:00

There's a lot of talk right now about Joe Crede. Some people demand that the Twins sign him because, damn it, at least it's something! Others wonder if he'd be an upgrade from a Buscher/Harris platoon. Others wonder if he'd be worth the money he's asking. Still others wonder if he can stay healthy.

Neyer points out that the team that signs him will be the one that knows how to evaluate and value defensive contributions, because Crede's had only one above average season in the last six years.

And he's right. For all the talk about Crede being a big offensive upgrade, he's just not that great at the plate. Don't let the fact that he's been putting up 25 HR per year (in the Chicago kiddy-pool of a stadium) cloud your vision when you take a gander at his .306 career OBP. That's right. .306 OBP. Not good.

That said, his offensive contribution last season was better than both Buscher and Harris. He was worth -1.2 runs offensive last year, while Buscher was worth -1.6 and Harris was worth -3.0; note that while Harris' number is much worse than Buscher's he got twice as much playing time, which just about balances them out to equally ineffective offensively.

Defense is another story. Crede has always been an excellent defensive third baseman -- despite my accusations a few years ago that he just makes the easy plays look difficult, a la Punto, and isn't actually that great, he really does get to a lot more balls than other guys would. Even in limited playing time he was worth +5.4 runs defensively, while Buscher was worth -2.8 and Harris -5.3; again, playing time brings Buscher and Harris pretty close to equally bad.

Overall, in 2008, Harris was worth 1.1 wins, Buscher was worth 0.4 wins, and Crede was worth 1.8 wins. Despite playing injured and missing nearly half the season, he was worth more to the White Sox than Buscher and Harris were worth to the Twins, combined. Crede's contributions were worth $8.1M on the free agent market, and he was only paid $5.1M for it.

He'd add some pop to our lineup but would not be much of an offensive upgrade over a Buscher/Harris platoon; it's possible that one or both of them turns a corner and improves offensively, but their minor league track records don't indicate that their ceiling is awfully high. Defensively, they're not going to get much better and we couldn't do much better than Crede.

If he's healthy, and the scouts who watched him as well as the increased interest from other teams seems to indicate that he is, he's definitely worth $5.1M plus incentives. It may even be worthwhile to try to go to 2 years on his deal. Still, the Twins say they need to see him more times before being willing to make a commitment; meanwhile, other teams are probably preparing their offers.

I've been a proponent of the Buscher/Harris platoon all winter, but as long as Crede is capable of playing ball somewhere in the general ballpark of his ability, I don't see how this signing doesn't work out for the Twins. He's at the bottom of his value, so we'd be buying low and could get plenty of upside. Even if we don't, and he plays hurt for half the season and then is done, we still get more value than we would from Buscher/Harris during that half-season and more value than we're paying for.

I say it's time to move on Crede.

Mijares and the Adventure in Venezuela

2009-01-30T00:00:00-08:00

This morning FunBobby alerted me to the Mijares situation, and it was the first I'd heard of it. My initial reaction was to take a bit of a wait-and-see approach before jumping to any conclusions about what it means:

I’m worried about this news about Mijares, but I don’t think the Dominican league is all that important and I don’t want to jump to conclusions. It’s possible that he had a disagreement with the manager, who may have wanted to increase/decrease his role against his will, and he didn’t want to endanger his actual major league career for the sake of his Dominican team. It’s also possible that he had a Silva-walking-off-the-mound moment and will get his head straight again. Again, no need to panic, but I certainly hope he talks to the Twins about this and gets everything straightened out.

Given that there's now an update on the situation, now might be time for a little bit of further analysis here. Essentially what happened is that Mijares was looking great, then in a brief period of days he alternated between good and bad games with little rest in between, and in his second bad game he faced 4 batters without recording an out (obviously terrible) and ended up blowing a 3-0 lead and losing the game.

From there, the details are fuzzy. Depends on who you talk to, Twins officials say. But Mijares had a feud with Aragua manager Buddy Bailey, a no-nonsense skipper who has butted heads with players in the past.

A no-nonsense skipper who has butted heads with players in the past? It sure doesn't sound like our friend Gardy, who's an emotional player's manager and likes to be everyone's friend. So I don't know if Mijares' inability to get along with this no-nonsense jerk of a coach named Buddy Bailey who happens to have no connection whatsoever to the Twins really indicates that we're going to have a problem with his attitude. This sounds like a disagreement that could have been resolved by a little humility from the manager and a willingness to talk to the player. Since Bailey doesn't have to deal with Mijares for a whole season (or more), he doesn't need to make that investment in a young player.

That said, however, Gardy does have some quirks that effect his ability to show humility and willingness to get over issues with players. He seems to particularly hate players who have the poisonous combination of youth and talent; if you have just one of them, he likes you okay ... but if you have neither, you're his new best friend. Rondell White? Garrett Jones? Lew Ford? Luis Rodriguez? Jason Tyner? Nick Punto? These are names that bring a little bit of bile to the back of my throat, but that Gardy has in the past written into the lineup like it's his favoriate pastime. Since Mijares is young and talented, Gardy may want to give him the Alexi Casilla treatment -- ie, jerk him around and sit his ass on the bench until he gets sent down, and who cares if that hurts the team I'm making a point!

If this event is an indication of Mijares' general attitude, that treatment from Gardy will probably result in the same outcome, which is what we don't want.

Want a bit of hope?

Mijares, 24, has struggled with his weight in the past.

Ooh, goody. Gardy loves him a fat Mexican*! So maybe we're safe after all.

By "Mexican" I mean "Hispanic," but "fat Hispanic guy" doesn't have that same poetic feel to it. Thanks for your understanding, everyone.

Gardy hasn't reacted to this yet, so I'll get back with something when/if he ever does. But Bill Smith is doing what he can to lose his "Wild" prefix, and is spewing some boilerplate for public consumption.

“We’re happy he pitched winter ball; he had a good regular season,” Twins General Manager Bill Smith said.

Really Bill? You mean you didn't want him to sit on his ass eating burritos all winter? And yes, he had a good regular season. Thank you. An 0.87 ERA is, you know, good.

As for walking out on the Aragua team, Smith said, “I’m not sure [Mijares] handled it as well as anyone would have liked.”

Ah. Yes, thanks. Obviously, walking out on the team and then getting thrown off it isn't the best way to handle yourself. It's a good thing we have a GM to clear this stuff up for us.

Then Smith was asked if Mijares is a lock to make the Twins’ Opening Day roster.

“No he’s not,” he said. “If he comes to camp thinking he’s a lock for our bullpen, he’ll probably be in [Class AAA] Rochester after our first cuts. If he pitches the way he did in September, he has a good chance of making our club.”

You mean a young player with 10 games of major league experience isn't guaranteed a spot on the roster? Weird, I thought 10 good games was all you needed to get into the Hall of Fame. What, it was years? 10 good years? Oh, never mind then.

But I certainly hope that Mijares goes down with the "first cuts" just because of an incident in Venezuela involving the bruised ego of some nobody of a manager, name of Buddy Bailey. Why the shit should we care about Buddy Bailey?

Everybody just relax and evaluate him based on his ability to get people out, and his ability to bounce back from a bad outing under the tutelage of Gardy and Anderson. Not based on the opinion of Buddy Bailey.

Giving Up on High Ceiling Prospects

2009-01-30T00:00:00-08:00

When a highly regarded prospect finally reaches the majors, everyone's ready for him to start producing immediately. Often, even the good ones struggle at first while they attempt to make the adjustment. And far too often, teams and their fans are quick to give up on their prospects during this brief struggle rather than sticking through it and finishing the player's development. FanGraphs currently has a post up looing at UnBusted Prospects, pointing out that last year Carlos Quentin, Ben Zobrist, and Elijah Dukes had breakout years after being given up on by their teams.

Right now you're probably thinking I'm going to talk about Delmon Young or Carlos Gomez, and how we should be more patient with them while they finish their development into major leaguers. But I'm not.

Instead, I'm going to look into an idea I got from that FanGraphs article. In particular, Chin-Lung Hu, who was apparently dropped from the Dodgers' plans after a bitter cup of coffee:

For most organizations, the reaction to such a performance is to go find another option. The Dodgers re-signed Casey Blake and Rafael Furcal rather than giving Hu another shot.

Now, Hu's major league numbers are indeed pretty bad: .181/.252/.233 with 0 HR in 127 PA in 2008. But is that really enough of a sample size to completely give up on a 24 year old shortstop who hit .298/.343/.421 in his minor league career?

Now that Furcal is in hand for the next three seasons, the Dodgers are pretty much saying that Hu is out of their plans. If somebody wanted to get their hands on Hu, now would be the time to do it. Now, the question is: Will he be the type of player who turns out to be a AAAA type guy, who can hit AAA pitching but can't hack it in the majors? Or will he be able to make the adjustments necessary to succeed at the highest level?

After a good 2005 season at A+, the Dodgers moved him up to AA for his age 22 season. His OPS fell from .777 in 2005 to .660 in 2006, his SB dropped from 23 to 11, and his strikeouts jumped from 40 to 63. But even while struggling, he was showing signs of improvement: his walks increased from 19 to 49, which is a huge jump.

In 2007, they asked him to repeat AA, and he answered by demonstrating that he had, in fact, adjusted to the level. At age 23 he hit .329/.380/.508 in 82 games, at which point he was promoted to AAA where he proceeded to continue his good year: .318/.337/.505, which is very good for a 23 year old SS in AAA.

The point of looking over that was to demonstrate that he's clearly capable of making adjustments, if given the chance to do so. Obviously his 2008 was worse than his 2006, and it's more difficult to adjust to the majors than to AA, and we're talking about upgrading from the NL West to the AL Central. But I don't see any reason to think it's impossible for Hu to become a solid major league shortstop, with the ability draw some walks, to hit 5-10 homers and steal 10-20 bases a season while providing a solid glove in the middle infield. (I don't have access to his advanced defensive numbers, but he only has 1 error at SS in 45 career games.)

It's impossible to say what the Dodgers would demand in return for Hu (but realizing that they'd be dealing with the Twins, they're sure to demand Slowey+Span+prospects+cash), but realistically it can't be a whole lot given that they've clearly given up on him.

We could stash him in Rochester until we feel that he's got his feet under him and Punto has worn out his welcome in the starting lineup.

Obviously this is complete speculation and there's no indication that the Dodgers would consider actually releasing Hu nor is there any indication that the Twins are looking to upgrade the middle infield via trade. But trades like this are ones they should definitely be considering, when the opportunity to buy low presents itself.

Performance Enhancing Surgery: The Next Frontier?

2009-01-29T00:00:00-08:00

Everyone, obviously, has heard of the steroid era in baseball; probably way more than they wanted to. We haven't talked about it much around here, because we were hearing too much about it and figured everyone else was too. But I've got some things bouncing around my head about performance enhancement, so bear with me. Trust me that this will not be yet another me-too indictment of Bonds, Clemens, or anyone else who was alleged to have taken steroids.

(And this post is longer than usual, so I apologize if you prefer the shorter ones.)

The crux of the anti-steroids movement has been that it is "cheating," and that it gives players an unfair advantage in defeating their opponents and in chasing the hallowed records of yesteryear. The non-anti-steroids camp (I choose not to use "pro-steroids" because I doubt they would call themselves that) has said, basically, that players using steroids is far better than players using cocaine or alcohol -- given the choice, wouldn't you rather go out and watch guys who spend their entire lives working out and getting stronger so as to be better at baseball, rather than watching hungover guys staggering around after an all night coke party?

But is "it makes players better" really the problem? I recall reading an article in Sports Illustrated in the 90's, in which it described the Seattle Mariners practices, where all the players would go over to a table (supplied by the team) and chug paper cup after paper cup of creatine -- a performance enhancing supplement that is supposed to help with muscle recovery and growth. Creatine, I believe, is still used. As are supplements from companies like EAS, who advertise that their products help with muscle recovery and the development of new muscle tissue. These are all the same effects that steroids purportedly have. Players seem to be allowed to attempt to improve themselves.

It's possible that the "real" steroids are worse for your body, and that's why there's such an outcry against them. The worse long term negative effects may be a mirror of their more powerful short term positive effects. And if that's the case, it makes sense. Especially in the context of players being "role models," or more accurately in raising the bar of competitiveness such that 18 year olds feel compelled to take supplements or steroids in order to compete.

The Twins haven't had a huge problem with steroids. The only Twins to show up in the Mitchell Report were Chad Allen (who made a great play for the Twins in which his foot got caught in the Dome's turf and it tore up his knee, and he hopped to the ball and threw it back into the infield despite surely knowing his career was done -- he used HGH afterwards while attempting to make a comeback), Rondell White (who was always injured and sucked anyway), and Chuck Knoblauch (who started once he got to New York and got the yips). Tom Kelly looked bad because he didn't turn someone in when they left a syringe in the visitor's clubhouse. But ultimately, the Twins haven't really had a problem.

This has made me happy, because I don't want my own team and its reputation sullied, least of all in my own mind. But in the overarching area of "performance enhancement," I fear the Twins may be on the cutting edge of a new trend, and I don't know how to feel about it.

In the 2007 offseason, Denard Span knew he'd be competing for the center field position in 2008. He knew his minor league numbers didn't look good and that the organization seemed to be souring on his future prospects. He then had laser eye surgery, which he claimed improved his eyesight and let him see the ball better, sooner, and improved his ability to evaluate whether or not to swing.

In 2006, AA: .285/.340/.349 In 2007, AAA: .267/.323/.355 In 2008, AAA: .340/.434/.481 In 2008, MLB: .294/.387/.432

Note the huge jump in performance between 2007 and 2008, and also the huge jump in his IsoD (isolated discipline, or OBP-AVG). From 2006 to 2008 it increased from: 55, 56, 94, 93. That jump in plate discipline is the difference between Span being a decent player scraping by in the majors while we look for an upgrade and being a significant part of this team's future plans as well as garnering a following. A .387 OBP is extremely valuable ... and a .347 wouldn't look nearly as impressive.

Could it be that he just turned a corner and improved that significantly? Sure, it's possible. It's possible that Torii Hunter's advice (to "play angry") made all the difference in the world for Denard Span. But, and this is purely speculation, it doesn't seem to me that playing "angry" would improve your plate discipline and increase your likelihood of taking on a pitch. It certainly didn't do that for Hunter, who remains one of the free-est swingers in the game.

You know what would increase a player's likelihood of taking pitches? Drastically improved eyesight. Something that Denard Span acquired between the 2007 and 2008 seasons. It seems to me that this is easily worth looking into. Especially since he will now be joined by Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer, who both had laser eye surgery this offseason. And this time around, the players are getting approval from the team before doing it, so there can't be the plausible deniability "we didn't know they were doing it" this time around.

Denard Span credits the surgery with turning his career around, so the Twins have given other players their blessing to have the procedure. "I had multiple discussions with people on it," general manager Bill Smith said. "The biggest thing is making sure the people involved are reputable, and they were." (USAToday)

But is this fair? Sure, anyone can do it, especially with the monetary resources of a professional baseball player and the medical resources of a professional baseball team. And there's no indication that it's "bad" for you in any sense.

And there's also the question of those hallowed records. Of reducing the legend of players past by surgically or chemically altering current players who are subsequently more able to chase the legendary numbers. There has been a massive outcry since Barry Bonds used drugs to get as big and strong as Babe Ruth, and Roger Clemens used drugs to get as big and strong as Walter Johnson.

Will there be a similar outcry if people have themselves surgically altered such that they have the same perfect eyesight as Ted Williams? The key to Williams' ability to hit was his eyesight -- he famously claimed to be able to count the stitches on the ball while it was in the air. If he hadn't been able to see that well, he almost certainly wouldn't have been as great a hitter. At the same time, players now are surely bigger, faster, and stronger than he was (as all humans are compared to their predecessors from six decades ago). If they can have a surgical procedure performed to give them eyesight as good as Ted Williams, how is that different from Bonds and Clemens using drugs to become as strong as Ruth and D-Train?

Span's jump in plate discipline isn't nearly enough of a sample to make any conclusions. If he continues to hit (and walk) this well, and if Morneau and Cuddyer have similar jumps in performance of their own, then we'll be well on our way to seeing if laser eye surgery can be an effective way to enhance your performance while skirting the rules against "performance enhancing drugs." Will we soon be hearing of "performance enhancing surgeries" and a subsequent study into their use? What about genetic therapy? Where does this arms race end?

And if you're a player, having a surgery like this isn't exactly reversible; fewer people would have accepted the apology from Andy Pettite if they thought he was still using HGH. But in a dark future, nobody will accept an apology from Span for his eye surgery, since they know his eyes are still better than the ones he was born with.

Does anyone else have any thoughts on this possibly upcoming issue? Should eye surgeries be frowned upon and illegalized like steroids, and should the players benefiting from them become pariahs like their drug-taking predecessors?

Or can I keep being a big Denard Span Fan?

Mijares Freaks Out and Further Bullpen Analysis

2009-01-29T00:00:00-08:00

The Star Tribune is reporting that Twins pitcher Jose Mijares walked out on his Dominican winter league team. This is not a good sign. I am no familiar with how seriously players take Dominican League ball. Do they treat it like a beer league softball game? Or do they take it as seriously as they do their full-time jobs in the Majors Leagues? I assumed they were just as important, especially to the latin players. If this is the case, we all of a sudden have a lot to worry about with Mijares. Everyone anointed him the second coming last season without even questioning his character. I understand its hard to see the negatives in his dominant (however brief) performance at the end of last year, but I think its time we sat down and took a hard look at Mijares. I personally will not be doing this, since its my job to bitch about things and SirSean picks up the pieces with his "numbers" and other witch doctor type things. But lets give it a shot.

In 2007 he pitched just under 70 innings in 31 games, all in relief. He had 81 strikeouts to 53 walks, while sporting a 3.88 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. 61 of those innings were at AA and the rest were at AAA. Nothing overpowering, his strikeout to walk rate was about 1.5:1 (as a frame of reference Joe Nathan had a 4:1 strikeout to walk rate of 4:1) The ERA and WHIP are really underwhelming, but not all together terrible. I think this really shows that people are putting too much faith in the 10 innings he threw last season for the twins. Could the source of this faith maybe be the fact that everyone else in the bullpen was so terrible during that same time frame and we were willing to crown anyone who showed a flash the next great thing? I think that it could be.

Now with this new revelation that he quit on his teammates, I am starting to have great doubts about the man. In winter ball he was lights out, until two bad outings in a row, then he decided to walk out on his team. What happens when he gets shelled in Minnesota? I'm assuming he has experienced failure before and this was just a fluke, but who knows? From now on we really can't assume that Mijares is going to be a lights out set-up guy. Outside of Nathan the bullpen really is a bunch of question marks. Guerrier is coming off his worst season as a pro, and we don't know if he can bounce back from a huge 2008 workload. Jesse Crain will be entering his second full season after major shoulder surgery, word is he is finally back to full strength, but again who knows. Breslow was consistent last year against lefties, and should be given more chances to get righties out. Boof has the talent and stuff to be a great reliever, but the head has yet to come around. It seems like our bullpen is built on a house of cards. The things coming out of the clubhouse sound like this "If Boof accepts his role, AND Crain rebounds from surgery AND Guerrier can regain his 2007 form AND Mijares picks up where he left off, we will have enough guys to get to Nathan." Could be worse. It could be like this: "We are looking for 4 or 5 guys to get us to our closer. Who we are still looking for" I think thats what it sounds like in Detroit.

Twins Smartly Reject Gagne

2009-01-28T00:00:00-08:00

According to Joe C, the Twins have cut off their talks with Gagne.

This is excellent news. He was worth -$4.6M last year. That's negative dollars. He hasn't been worth more than he's been paid since 2004. This is absolutely not the kind of pitcher you want to sign in free agency for any amount of money, much less "market value," which is invariably higher than actual value.

I'm not terrified of the bullpen this year -- I'd like an addition to replace Neshek, who really would have helped in the second half last year and probably gotten us into the playoffs, but it's absolutely not worth panicking and signing someone like Gagne.

This is a great non-move. Let someone else make a mistake on this disaster of a former-pitcher. It has nothing to do with being cheap.

Someone Else Looks at Twins Team Win Values and Assholes It Up

2009-01-28T00:00:00-08:00

Just saw that Dave Cameron over at FanGraphs has decided to run down the Twins Team Win Values, as he's been doing for a few other teams. Apparently he didn't notice that we already did that here.

For every other team he's looked at, their team win value indicated that they were actually far better than their record indicates, because they were unlucky and didn't hit well with men on base. The Red Sox should have won 106 games and everyone should have forfeited to them in the playoffs because they were the best! Boo hoo!

Well, Cameron's decided it's time to shit on someone, and who better than those confusing Twins, who seem to perpetually win games despite having players with dumb names I've never heard like "Blackburn" and "Span" rather than awesome names like "Rodriguez" and "Youkilis?" If they're not famous, they're not good. This is a widely believed fact, and if you don't know it you're just a homer.

Anyhow, Cameron points out that the Twins were an 80.5 win team last year based on win values. He arrives at this number for two reasons: 1) His calculator was broken, it's actually 80.6; 2) He made his calculation before the bug in pitcher team win values was fixed, because it was actually 82.1 and no, I'm not going to let it go.

When a single wasn’t going to be worth much, the Twins didn’t do much, hitting like a band of Triple-A infielders. When they had a chance to drive men in, though, they turned into a pretty nifty bunch of run producers. Because their offensive distribution was so heavily skewed towards hitting in situations that would produce runs, the team ended up finishing 3rd in the AL in runs scored despite an offense that simply wasn’t that good.

Yup, the stupid Twins were "run producers" who value RBIs rather than doing their best work with nobody on base, which makes you good. And what's that about no-name players? AAA infielders you say?

While watching your team capitalize on a huge portion of their run scoring opportunities is exciting, it’s not a great recipe for success. If the Twins want to keep winning in 2009, they’re going to have to just hit better, rather than rely on turning up the offensive jets only in certain situations.

Why yes, it was exciting. Thank you very much, isn't that the point of sports? It is "entertainment," after all. And no, the Twins didn't succeed. They lost their play-in game. Thanks for rubbing it in.

Alright then. While he ignored the fact that actual wins from year to year are more closely correlated with pythag wins than win value wins, he came to the same ultimate conclusion I did. That the Twins need to improve their offense.

What he didn't point out is that Mike Lamb and Craig Monroe and Adam Everett being gone are improvements. And that Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez can reasonably be expected to improve. And Michael Cuddyer is coming back from injury. And Jason Kubel is set to be a regular DH. These are all things that should improve the offense.

I'm not worried. But other people evidently are, since they're already warming up their "The Twins aren't really any good" arguments that they'll be using all season.

Rob Neyer Has Some Shit To Say About The Twins, As Always

2009-01-28T00:00:00-08:00

Rob Neyer continues his assault on all things Twins, saying that the Twins should have cut Kubel loose rather than signing him to this horrible, inexcusable contract.

One would assume that if anyone would have noticed the obvious parallel between Kubel and DOrtiz, it would have been Rob Neyer, that paragon of Boston fandom. So of course the Twins should have cut Kubel loose, because the original DOrtiz is falling to pieces and the Boston Red Sox need a new one.

But what's that you say? The AL Central wasn't actually created as a farm system for Boston and New York? You mean teams here can actually keep their own players if they want to? That's weird. Mr Rob Neyer has never heard of this concept before. Therefore we should just give him our players and stop pretending like we want to actually field a team.

Neyer thinks he closes with a good point:

If Jason Kubel were a free agent, it's not likely that the Twins would have thrown $7 million (or $12 million) his way. But Kubel's been a Twin for nearly nine years, and after nearly nine years (and a knee surgery or two) it's not easy to cut a guy loose. Especially a fairly productive guy. Even when the numbers say that's exactly what you should do.

Oh ho! Think about it! If Kubel were a free agent, would you sign him to this contract?

Maybe. Maybe not.

But, on the other hand, he's not a free agent. He's an arbitration eligible player who was already under team control -- ie, we were going to be paying him anyway. In arbitration, he almost certainly would have been awarded $3M+ this offseason, and more next year. So the question of what we'd do if we weren't already going to be paying him is meaningless.

And he's a known quantitiy. I don't know what Eric Hinske or some other washed up veteran piece of crap player is like in the clubhouse, and neither do the Twins. But they do know what Kubel is like. They know he's a little quiet, that he keeps to himself, that he doesn't overextend himself, that he can no longer run, that he can't really grow a good beard, and that he has a penchant for hitting grand slams late in the game. These are all things the Twins know about Jason Kubel, that they've learned over the last nine years of having him in the system.

And another thing. How many times do teams just cut the third best hitter on their team during his arbitration years? Compile for me a list of players who hit 20 HR in an arbitration-eligible season and were subsequently released from the team. Please. I want to see that list.

So no, Rob Neyer, just because we've had Kubel for nine years does NOT mean it's your turn to have him. We'll keep DOrtiz v2.0 for ourselves, thank you very much.

Is it just me, or have people come out attacking the Twins a bit more than usual today? It's probably me.

Oh, and one more thing. Am I the only person who's glad that the Twins are NOT signing guys like Hinske? You know, washed up mediocre veterans who do nothing but suck up some free millions and steal playing time from our younger, more talented players? Passing on the dung-flavor of the month in favor of hitching a ride with a still-improving slugger is a move in a positive direction for this team, and I personally find it amusing that guys like Rob Neyer and Dave Cameron are annoyed that we've finally figured that out.

Miscellaneous Wednesday Notes

2009-01-28T00:00:00-08:00

I know everyone's ornery today because Gleeman is having another of those stupid live chats rather than actually penning an article. So let's just get to some news, shall we?

The Cubs have been sold, for $900M, to some rich guy who claims to be a Cubs fan. Apparently, my request for a government bailout of $4 billion was ignored. (My reasoning was: "If you don't give me free billions, I won't be a billionaire!" This is the logic that puts taxpayer money into the pockets of rich guys in the form of "stadiums" or the more egregious "stay rich cash infusion.") If I had gotten that well-deserved money, I certainly would have bid more than $900M to own the Cubs. Which would have been "good" for the economy. Yet another unforgivable screw up. I'm still waiting for that check.

In other Cubs news, they're suing Under Armour. I, um, don't know what to say about this other than that it's probably not your underwear's fault. If you know what I mean.

A little while back, Brendan Harris was interviewed by Baseball Prospectus. Their Q&A sessions with players aren't often very interesting; the players tend to spew the same cliched crap they give to regular media people. However, I learned that Harris has a degree in political science and actually seems like a pretty smart guy.

He revealed that he spends most of his time talking to Slowey and Breslow, and that Cuddyer occasionally tries to join the conversation. Slowey and Breslow are generally regarded as the smartest guys on the team, so it's no surprise that another smart guy would gravitate towards them -- though they have talent, which Harris lacks.

He was asked to compare Gardy to Joe Maddon:

They're two different guys with two different styles, albeit both successful. Joe is more of the professor type where he's very analytical, although he will definitely get intense, too. He is more of a "thinks things through" [type]. Gardy is a little more emotional and really gets into the game. Sometimes you almost can't tell if Gardy is out there playing or if he's managing. He wears it on his sleeve a little more.

Now, there's really nothing there that's not obvious ... but I will say that I have never been confused about whether Gardy is playing or managing. I've been confused as to whether he's managing or not managing, but ... playing? Really? But I do like it that Gardy's emotional -- it makes for better pictures. See the logo at the top of the page.

They finished with this:

DL: I can't let you get away without bringing up that you were once compared, as a minor league prospect, to Albert Pujols. BH: Oh, man. Let's put it this way: If that was a diagnosis, I'd say, 'Doctor, you were way off base on that one.'

Looks like we got the wrong infielder. And I would like to know who ever compared Harris to Pujols, and whether they still have a job.

And to finish, I'd just like to point out that however much other teams are complaining about the "economy" getting them down and constraining their wallets, the Twins are doing just fine. The team is on pace to sell a franchise record 11000 season tickets for 2009, and they have this to say about their financials:

“We’re in a unique situation with the new ballpark on the horizon, the last year in the Metrodome, a very competitive team and a great value proposition in terms of flexibility and affordability,” said Steve Smith, the Twins’ vice president of ticket sales and service. “In some respects, I think we’re riding above some of the economic pain that some other organizations are feeling right now.”

Well, personally, I think that's great. It's certainly good to hear that we're doing well, which is more enjoyable than the schadenfreude of hearing that the Mets ownership was taken to the cleaners by Madoff.

So I guess it's a good thing the Twins are one of the few teams doing well financially this offseason. You can really tell by the way they're throwing their money around.

Jason Kubel

2009-01-28T00:00:00-08:00

The Twins signed Jason Kubel to a two year deal, with a team option for a third year. Some peoplequestion this move, since he is already under team control for the next two years. It really only gives the team cost certainty. I think its a team friendly deal, mainly because of the option. It can't hurt to have a useful bat locked it for two to three years. One of the reasons this move does look questionable is because of the outfield/DH logjam. Kubel had to fight for at bats last year, now Michael Cuddyer is added to the mix and he will have to fight even harder. It appears that no washed up free agent will steal his ABs, but perhaps a nearly washed up never-was will. Ideally Gardy rotates Young-Span-Gomez-Cuddyer through the 3 OF spots, and lets Kubel be as the primary DH. Possibly using Cuddyer against especially tough lefties. Depth never hurt anyone.

The dollar amount for Kubel's deal doesn't bother me, we either pay him 7 mil for 2 years, or 12 mil for 3 years, I think. Not bad, especially if he has a killer first two years. Will this new deal force Gardy to give Kubel more at bats? Will the return of Cuddyer take at bats away? If we are facing a right handed pitcher, there is no question Kubel should be the DH. Should be interesting to see how this plays out. I highly doubt any of the five players mentioned above are moved before the start of the season, so Gardy better figure something out.

Time to Buy a Span T-Shirt Jersey

2009-01-27T00:00:00-08:00

Just saw a little note about something that happened at TwinsFest. It's a small thing, but it leads me to wonder: Is it even possible any more not to like Denard Span? I mean, come on:

Denard Span remembers when Torii Hunter picked him up at his hotel during TwinsFest a half-dozen years ago, and how he took him to dinner and showed him around the Metrodome. "I promised Torii that whenever I made it, whoever the next guy was, I would try to take him under my wing and help him out the same way," Span said. He got his chance over the weekend, serving as an informal chaperone for Ben Revere, the Twins' 20-year-old center fielder of the future. A nice gesture — particularly because Span doesn't have an entire season of major league experience yet himself. "It's a little weird. I guess I'm starting to get old already," Span joked. "It seems like just last year that I was just like him. I can tell he's nervous, doesn't know what to say. I remember being the same way."

We were not alone in disparaging Denard last year when he was trying to break in with the big club, and his bravado seemed completely out of place given his minor league numbers. It looked like he would be -- at best -- a mediocre stopgap until Gomez was ready in a year or so.

Boy was everyone wrong.

He's the fourth best hitter on the team, and his center fielder's range makes a mockery of right field -- earning him the nickname "Mr Web Gem" from the guys on ESPN. (Although I don't think anyone with a cool name like "Denard Span" should have a nickname.) He has great plate discipline, good speed, and an accurate arm.

Span turns 25 one month from today. And he's already turning into a leader, despite not even having a full year of service time under his belt.

That settles it. I need to buy a Span t-shirt jersey.

Team Win Values

2009-01-26T00:00:00-08:00

In 2008, the Twins went 88-75 and finished second in the division. Jerks from Boston leaped eagerly from the woodwork to claim that the Twins were, in fact, terrible; that the only reason they won 88 games was because they were lucky enough to score runs with men on base, whereas "good" teams score most of their runs with nobody on base.

(That was their point, right?)

The issue, of course, was that the Twins hit very well with runners in scoring position. Considerably better than they did without runners in scoring position. The logic goes that since this isn't a repeatable skill and is just random, the Twins are sure to regress and therefore score many fewer runs next year.

On the other hand, the best predictor of actual record is Pythagorean record (which is based on runs scored versus runs against). The Twins scored 5.1 runs per game while giving up 4.6 runs per game; this corresponds to an 89-74 team, which is remarkably close to reality*. Despite the raucous calls of those self-proclaimed mathematical geniuses, Baseball Reference points out that the Twins were actually UNLUCKY in 2008, when it came to their record.

Amusingly, the White Sox scored 5.0 runs per game and gave up 4.5, and thus had an identical 89-74 Pythagorean record. It really should come as no surprise that these two teams went down to a 163rd game, they were about exactly as good. And if the Twins had come out on top of that 1-0 game, we'd have a Luck of 0 while the White Sox have our Luck of -1. Although given that we scored 99 runs against the White Sox, and they scored 101 against us, a reversal of that 1-0 score would have put us each at 100 runs, adding to the bafflingly poetic symmetry.

That said, though, the runs-scored vs runs-against nature of Pythag doesn't account for the crux of the issue, which is that the Twins scored runs when it counted most, and that ability has not correlated from year to year (ie, when you do it one year, that doesn't mean you'll do it the next year -- which means it isn't a "skill").

So ... thankfully we have access to FanGraphs's new context neutral Win Values system, and the way they do it at a team level is just to add every player's values up (they do this for you, thankfully) and get the entire teams "Wins above replacement level." For the purposes of their system, the replacement level is set as a .289 team*. That's 46.8 wins. The Twins got 17.6 wins from their position players, and 16.2 wins from their pitchers. Which puts them at 80.6 wins overall. Rather than being an 88-89 win team (based on reality and Pythag), the Twins instead were just an 80-81 win team (based on context neutral win values).

I wonder what a team would actually be like if EVERY player were actually a replacement level player. It's a fun though experiment; say the entire 40 man roster gets pissed at you and goes on strike, or flees the country, or are arrested for not paying their taxes. What would the team do? Shut down? Or would they run around grabbing AA players and minor league free agents and scrounging the waiver wire and holding tryouts at the stadium? Just how bad would that team be? That's what a replacement level player is supposed to be -- someone who's freely available in AA or in the scrap heap. Would such a team really go 46-116?

If the Twins had taken some of their clutch hits and moved them to non-clutch situations, of course they'd have scored fewer runs. That's basically all this says. But it indicates that the Twins were, in fact, a little lucky in that their run-scoring was highly leveraged, if not that they won an inordinate amount of close games. (Using the same method, the White Sox were a 92 win team in 2008.)

The one thing to give us hope, though? The correlation of team Win Values to reality and Pythag.

Win Values to Pythag: .90 Win Values to Wins: .85

So the actual record is more closely correlated with the Pythagorean record than it is with the Win Values record. For what that's worth.

Frankly, I think the Twins need to get on base more and get more doubles and home runs.

[Update: Apparently there was a bug on the pitching team values page at FanGraphs, where it failed to correctly count values for pitchers that switched teams midseason. The Twins went from 16.2 to 17.7 for their pitching, which puts us at 82.1 expected wins in 2008.]

Smith Remains Reluctant to Dump Young Talent; Newspapermen and Fans Cry Foul

2009-01-26T00:00:00-08:00

Tom Powers has normally been pretty good over the last year-plus ... but I think he might be getting cabin fever given the slow offseason:

Smith does not want to trade one of those starters. No how, no way. And he also didn't sound particularly eager to part with an outfielder. Meanwhile, Smith said that all he's been offered so far are "one-year Band-Aids." But you have to give something to get something.

His latest article recommends trading one of our valuable young starting pitchers for a one year rental of a veteran reliever.

That's not giving up something to get something. That's giving up something to get nothing, and it's the exact reason Bill Smith says:

"No, I'm not going to catch hell," he insisted. "We've been working hard all season, and we just can't get anything done."

and

"We're looking at a lot of options, a lot of possibilities," he said. "We're trying. But the deals have to make us better."

I'm going to call this one a win for Smith. In this winter of "hope," fans want hope for the future of the team and that's traditionally found in new acquisitions. In this winter of doom for the newspapers, writers want a scoop; they want a big story. That's traditionally found when the team makes big moves, regardless of their efficacy in making the team better -- actually, it can often be better for the writers if the team makes bad moves. That's easier to write about.

I continue to be glad Smith doesn't throw away one of our starters and/or outfielders just for the sake of making a move, or sell someone off for pennies on the dollar just because we have a lot of young talent and lack our traditional crappy old veterans this year.

Paying the Right Guys

2009-01-26T00:00:00-08:00

So the Twins players aren't upset by the paucity of moves this offseason. My initial reaction was that they must read this website*, because we've been harping on that point all winter.

And I wholeheartedly encourage the players to read this website. I promise Gardy won't get mad. He seems like a fun-loving guy who enjoys incendiarily-titled blogs himself. Right?

But I don't really think they are. Instead, I think the team decided to pay off the right guys.

Torii Hunter used to have the occasional grumble about the front office’s inaction. Johan Santana, too. But this is not their team anymore.

They complained, and now they're gone. Damn right. Does that set a bad precedent? "Keep your mouth shut or you're gone"-type deal?

I don't think so. Remember when Nathan and Morneau were complaining that the front office wasn't adding any pieces and wasn't doing what it could to win?

Well, now that they have their dollars, they've changed their tune.

Nathan sings the praises of his supporting cast in the bullpen, and extolls the virtues of the team. Morneau, on the other hand, is basically quoting me:

“Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don’t make,” Justin Morneau said. ”Just because Kansas City’s making moves or Cleveland’s making moves or whatever, that doesn’t mean that we have to do it to show that we’re making moves. “If it’s the right fit, then it’s the right fit. But if it’s costing us two of our starting pitchers to go get a guy — the guys who got us to where we got last year were the guys in our rotation. “Do you give up that just to get a bat? You win in this league over a full season with pitching and defense. There’s benefits on both sides [making a move or not making a move], but at the same time, we won a lot of games last year with the team we have.”

Thank you Justin. And I won't even complain about the lack of attribution. I understand that it's difficult to link to a website in spoken word. And also that your boss wouldn't really appreciate it if you tried*. But it doesn't really matter, because a whole lot more people are listening to you than to me. So spread the word, team leader.

I propose that people start trying to link to articles, or at least to websites, while speaking. IE, "Just because Kansas City's making moves or Cleveland's making moves or whatever Fire Gardy, that doesn't mean we have to do it to show that we're making moves." Am I the only one who thinks the other people involved in the conversation would do a double-take at that? I mean, it doesn't work as well for ESPN or Wikipedia, but in some cases it could be a delight. If I ever talk to someone in person again, I might have to try this.

Move Cuddyer to Third and Tell Brainerd to SUCK IT

2009-01-25T00:00:00-08:00

Jim Souhan dropped another bit of gold this morning; he criticizes the team for foolishly making no moves, criticizes the available moves, then criticizes the team for overlooking the obvious solution right under their noses. Move Cuddyer to third base!

I'm on record saying that in the past, and I am now reconsidering my position. No opinion espoused by Souhan can be a particularly good one.

Baseball held its winter meetings this year in Las Vegas, where your Minnesota Twins set a record sure to be listed in next year's "Baseball Encyclopedia." They became the first major league organization ever to visit Sin City and get outspent by the writer assigned to cover them.

Sure to be listed? I doubt it. There's probably not a record for that, and if there were, the Twins probably didn't set it. You know, given that a lot of teams didn't do anything at the winter meetings, and writer spending is way down given the financial straits of the newspapers. If a single writer had spent more than an entire team, that writer would surely no longer be employed. But I get Souhan's point here. He is contractually required to make idiotic statements. Done.

Profligate spending built Vegas' opulent towers. If the Twins were the city's only clientele, the place would look a lot like Brainerd. As Twins General Manager Bill Smith put it on Friday, ''We have had a very busy winter ... and the result is almost nothing.''

Oh my, that's unacceptable! Bill Smith should write a big check to Vegas to allow them to build more casinos and towers! The Twins need to bail out Las Vegas, otherwise ... the city might never have been built! And also, if an entire city consisting of casinos attempted to rely on a single client/gambler, it would look a lot more desolate than Brainerd. Probably something more like this:

[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="446" caption="Las Vegas With One Customer"][/caption]

That's right. Suck on that Brainerd.

Smith earned the nickname ''Mr. No'' for his thrifty ways. This winter, he's been more like ''Dr. Don't Even Think About It.''

More of this? Would you rather have a GM with the nickname "Mr Moronic Big Spender?"

The Twins started the winter with an extra outfielder, no sure-fire setup man and a mess on the left side of the infield. They wrap up TwinsFest today with an extra outfielder, no sure-fire setup man and a mess on the left side of the infield.

And they're short an owner. Should we blame Smith for that too? There should be more sure-fire third basemen and shortstops on the market! Hall of Famers in their prime willing to sign for the league minimum! Gold Glove fielders with power! Why doesn't this idiot GM sign them?!?!?

They re-signed Nick Punto to play shortstop. Punto is a wonderful fielder wherever you put him, but he's played his best when he had to win a job during the season (in 2006 and 2008) and his worst when he was handed one before spring training (in 2007).

This is true, and I'm not a huge proponent of the Punto signing, but I will say this: it's market value for a good utility infielder. Well below market value for a shortstop. And his annual salary will be 40% of what he's worth (go to the bottom) in a good year (2006, 2008), and 125% of what he's worth in a bad year (2005, 2007). If trends continue, we'll get one good year and one bad year out of him: $13M in value for $8M. There just isn't that much to criticize about this deal, even if you don't like Punto. Also, would Souhan have preferred they let Punto walk and let Tolbert play SS? Or Harris? Or re-sign Adam Everett instead? Are there any, you know, available alternatives? No? Then what's with the complaining?

While they're looking into free-agent third baseman Joe Crede, the Twins plan to platoon Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris at third. Punto, Buscher and Harris on the left side of the infield -- a Twins fan might imagine it working out somehow, but if the Indians, Tigers or White Sox were trying this, Minnesotans would be pointing and laughing.

No, I'm sure Minnesotans would be blindly agreeing with you, Souhan, that the Twins are making a huge mistake that the aggression by our division rivals cannot stand, and that the Twins are foolish for not making ridiculous deals to compete with the clearly positive moves being made by the Indians, Tigers, or White Sox. At least those Minnesotans without access to the internet. You know, like with Mark Derosa.

Crede would provide the righthanded pop and fielding excellence that would fit perfectly into this lineup, and the Twins would obsess over his low on-base percentage less than many franchises, but there is a catch. Crede has a bad back, and he just started working out. So he'd be fine at third base, as long as he never had to bend over and pick anything up.

Crede may not be fully healthy, and he may not be capable of fielding his position as well as everyone is accustomed to. However, I think it's fair to assume that if the Twins (or any team, for that matter) were to actually sign him to a contract, he will have proved that he's at the very least capable of bending over and picking up a baseball. Also, where was the myth that Crede's a great hittern born? He's been better than replacement level with the bat exactly once in a full season (2006). His OPS+ numbers since 2003, when he first got his full time job: 92, 83, 96, 107, 49, 98. Career: 93. These numbers do not set the world on fire. For reference ... Brian Buscher's career OPS+ is 93. Brendan Harris' is 97.

What the Twins need on the left side of the infield is a righthanded hitter with pop. What they can afford on the left side of the infield is a fielder with limited range, because Punto and second baseman Alexi Casilla cover so much ground.

The Twins can afford a bad defensive third baseman because the second baseman has good range and the shortstop has average range? Well then, I hope nobody's planning to complain about the fielding we'll get from the Buscher/Harris platoon. And what, exactly, does the second baseman's range have to do with third base defense?

What the Twins need in their outfield is one less everyday player. What they can afford is an outfield featuring Carlos Gomez and Denard Span at two of the three positions, because their range creates so many extra outs.

Afford. You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

Add up all those factors, and the Twins have two choices, other than sticking with Harris and Buscher:

This should be good.

1. Trade left fielder Delmon Young for a third baseman. Young is young and talented enough to attract the eye of an ambitious general manager, and the Twins have concerns about his work ethic and plate approach.

Should work without problems. He's young and talented enough that some team will give up a (rare) major league caliber third baseman with power for him, given that he's a no-glove corner outfielder and there's such a big dearth of those on the market right now. Wouldn't you rather give up a starter for Delmon Young than pay a pittance for Adam Dunn? Also, why would he be "good enough" for some team to pay a lot for when he's not "good enough" for the Twins? This is the "Why don't we just trade Punto for A-Rod?" question.

2. Move the righthanded-hitting outfielder who grew up as a shortstop and transitioned to third base back to third base.

We've talked about this in the past, and it requires buy-in from the veteran Cuddyer. The oldest and most experienced position player on the team. I presume nobody noticed the brouhaha when the Rangers tried to move Michael Young to third base to accomodate a younger player -- and Cuddyer's actually decent at his position. Also, I've heard that Cuddyer isn't that interested in moving around again, given that he feels he's established his position and that his offense came around when he moved to RF permanently. And if you think you're hitting because you're playing right field, then you are. That's how baseball works.

Would Twins manager Ron Gardenhire give any consideration to moving Michael Cuddyer to third at any point this season? ''No, none,'' Gardenhire said sternly. ''Absolutely none.'' Then he got that mischievous look on his face and said, ''That's as of today!''

Haw haw. What are the odds Gardy just used that "mischievous look on his face" as a way of telling you, off the record, that you shouldn't bother writing an idiotic article about it. But that couldn't be.

Last he was heard from, Cuddyer didn't want to move to third base. My guess is if you wrote down his name at that position, he wouldn't go on strike.

I'm sure Cuddyer has been "heard from" since saying he doesn't want to move to third base. I also think it's immaterial whether he would "go on strike," which he wouldn't do no matter what happened unless The Union forced him to. You know, just like all the other players.

Move Cuddyer to third base, and the Twins get better without having to spend any more money or trade any prospects. It's so logical, it has no chance of happening. That's as of today.

Fin. I'm sure the entire article could have been summed up with: "I had a great idea! Everyone else in the world has also had the same idea, and the parties involved don't think it would work for various reasons. And they won't talk to me about it. Also something may change in the future, or it might not. So ... no reason to waste your time with the details."

But then we wouldn't have got that great joke about Brainerd. So take that, you stupid people who live in a small town that by some failing of yours is not as glamorous as Las Vegas! You suck!

The Big Sweat Will Be Missed?

2009-01-22T00:00:00-08:00

Joe C will miss Dennis Reyes.

Aww.

Reyes, who earned the nickname "The Big Sweat" partially for being perturbingly overweight and partially for managing to break a prodigious sweat while laboring to throw eight pitches 50 feet every three or four days, will probably not be with the Twins next year. Joe explains why:

Reyes, who posted a 2.33 ERA in 75 games for the Twins last year, probably would have commanded a three-year, $12 million deal in a better economy. Now, he’ll probably get a two-year deal for about half that price. Still, it wouldn’t make sense for the Twins to sign him. If they spend money on a reliever, he should be an eighth-inning specialist.

Yes, it should be on an 8th inning specialist. As opposed to someone who, you know, sucks. And can't throw a baseball 60 feet. But noooo ... it's the economy that's screwing Mr Sweat out of his well-earned $12 million.

I can recall my feelings every time Reyes waddled in from the bullpen. Trepidation. Fear. The intense desire to turn off the game in the knowledge that we'd lose the game. The satisfaction in knowing that I'd correctly predicted the walk-wild pitch-home run sequence that was forthcoming. But Joe C has a different reason to "miss" Reyes.

I should mention that he’s been one of my favorites in the Twins’ clubhouse. Reyes hails from Mexico and would routinely greet me by saying, “Que pasa?” What’s up? What’s happening? He wanted to know what Twins news I was hearing behind the scenes.

Would we get more news if we asked Joe "Que pasa?" every once in a while? Because ... this doesn't seem important to me.

I know some German but almost no Spanish, so it became our running gag, the way I would grapple for a proper response in Spanish. ”Nada,” I’d usually say. Nothing. Fortunately, Reyes’ English is excellent, and he tells some great stories about pitching for Jack McKeon’s Reds.

That's sweet. Joe had to grapple for the word "nada" every time. As if that weren't in the traditional American lexicon anyway. And who cares about the stories someone can tell about pitching for the Reds if that person cannot, for the lack of a better word, pitch?

(Funny, we could have had that same conversation every day this offseason, and it would have been the same. Any Twins news? Nada.)

That is funny. Because you're the guy who, um, writes the news. Why is everyone complaining that the Twins aren't creating more blowhard-worthy news, for the sake of the blowhards? Honestly. The team is good enough to compete, and for the first time in the last several years, we're not sitting here saying "Well, the Twins made another stupid move and will be giving at bats and/or innings to another mediocre veteran while the young guys rot in Rochester instead of contributing to the team," and having to wait until June until the young players come up and actually perform at an adequate level. This time, all the young guys are here from the beginning. This is A Good Thing (TM).

But Joe C was explaining why Reyes will be missed so much, to the point of being virtually irreplaceable. Let's allow him to continue.

Anyway, Breslow was a tremendous pickup for the Twins last season. He posted a 1.63 ERA in 42 appearances after getting claimed off waivers from Cleveland in late-May. The Twins began turning to him in tougher situations, and Breslow made 13 appearances in September, spanning nine innings, without allowing an earned run.

Yes, Breslow was pretty good. The only problem with Breslow was that Gardy wouldn't let him pitch often enough, and then when he let him go in he'd leave him in for four innings while his arm fell off. But ultimately, that's a really good point. Having an effective lefty in the bullpen really means we can't lose Reyes. Wait ... there's more?

Meanwhile in September, Mijares became an overnight sensation, posting a 0.87 ERA and taking over the primary setup duties. In 10 1/3 innings, Mijares allowed one run and three hits. In the 1-0 tiebreaker loss to the White Sox, Mijares relieved Nick Blackburn, faced four batters and retired them all.

Oh my, you mean besides our lefty who's better than Reyes we have an even better lefty ready to go who struck everyone out and has success against both lefties and righties and doesn't weight 360 pounds? Well hell, we'd better scrape those twelve millions together to keep our hands clutching to Reyes' sizable love handles!

Breslow is far from overpowering, but he’s extremely savvy. Keep in mind, he has a degree in molecular biophysics and biochemistry from Yale.

That's a good point. I have to give it to Christensen here. There's a long, storied history of Yalies in the majors, and knowledge of molecular biochemistry surely helps in the "getting people out" category. Wait a second. Why do I care about Breslow's (admittedly impressive) degree? I'm fairly certain Liriano never went to Yale, nor did Santana, but they are pretty good pitchers. Where did Reyes study biochemistry?

Here’s the thing: Reyes, who turns 32 in April, is a 12-year major league veteran. He usually got the call, when the Twins were about to face a tough left-handed batter in a close, late-inning game.

The number one the Twins need is an old guy to suck up some of our valuable innings from talented players. Also, in what sense was it ever a good thing that "The Big Sweat" usually got the call when the Twins were locked in a close battle late in the game? That was the most infuriating thing about Reyes even being on the team!

You get the picture. The Twins might like Breslow and Mijares, but they’ll miss Reyes’ experience. I’ll miss our conversations.

I do get the picture. We explain the reasons why Breslow and Mijares are better options than Reyes, ignore the fact that nobody needs three lefties in the bullpen, especially when the available option is to ditch the one of the three that can't face righties. Then we say all the reasons we personally like The Fat Mexican (Big Sweat, sorry Dennis).

I will not miss Dennis Reyes. I just hope some other team agrees with Joe C, such that we actually get our compensatory draft pick. That's how worthless Reyes is. Nobody even wants him, and we can't get our draft pick. Therefore, he must be great!

Boy, it's slow in Twins territory. Nobody should be talking about how much they "miss" The Scourge of the Dome Dog.

Twins Players Dominate New Postseason Probability Added

2009-01-15T00:00:00-08:00

I'm pretty sure I talked about the Drama Index a while back, though I can't find it now. It's a nice little stat invented by Dave Studeman at The Hardball Times, which focuses on the importance of each game when it comes to getting you into the playoffs. A team's odds of getting into the playoffs increase or decrease after each game, depending on whether you win or lose -- the more your likelihood of making the playoffs changes after a game, the higher the Drama Index for that game.

Well, the Twins and White Sox were the most dramatic teams in 2008, not surprisingly, because we were withing a game of each other for the last four months of the season, played each other numerous times at the end of the season, and played a one game playoff (which was, obviously, the single "most dramatic" game of the year). Incidentally, the Twins are often one of the most dramatic teams in the league; I don't know what this says about the Twins, but it's entertaining for the fans, which is, I think, the point.

Well, today Studeman wants to think about the MVP race. He started off with the NL, because of the way that race turned out. Pujols would be the obvious choice if you just looked at numbers (he is, after all, amazing). But, the Ryan Howard supporters shout, the Cardinals didn't even make the playoffs! Ryan Howard plays his best in September* and that's why the Phillies made the playoffs! He should be MVP!

I don't know why nobody ever talks about this, but why is it a good thing that Howard hits the most home runs in September? That's the month of September callups -- ie, rather than facing good pitchers like he does all year (and strikes out), he gets to face AAA guys who are shaking in their boots. And he takes them deep because they don't know that all you have to do is throw him breaking balls and the occasional high-and-tight fastball, and he'll look confused for three pitches and go sit down. In September 2008, Ryan Howard's home runs came off: Odalis Perez, Marco Estrada, Johan Santana, Eulogio De La Cruz, Ricky Nolasco, Ben Sheets, David Bush, Mike Gonzalez, Josh Johnson, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Collin Balester. Of those, the guys who were minor leaguers in 2008 are: Estrada, De La Cruz, Gonzalez, Johnson, Reyes, and Balester. So 6 of his 11 homers in September were off minor league pitchers. In addition to that, Odalis Perez and Ricky Nolasco are no good, and Santana gives up a lot of home runs -- especially to lumbering left handed sluggers against whom his changeup isn't as effective. You tell me -- are these numbers indicative of a truly elite slugger, or just someone who feasts on mediocre pitching?

Well, it turns out that if you weight a player's WPA (wins probablity added) gained in each game by that games DI (drama index), you come up with PPA (postseason probability added) ... and Pujols and Howard come out just about even. In fact, Howard (4.48) comes out ahead of Pujols (4.39), largely because of Howard's minor league homers in September when the Phillies were in the playoff race, coupled with the fact that the rest of Pujols' team sucks and they didn't play any meaningful games. Of course, Carlos Beltran played even better down the stretch and ran away with a PPA of 8.30. Perhaps he should have been the MVP!

In the AL, it gets much more amusing. Recall that the Twins and White Sox played the most meaningful and dramatic games of the year as you take a gander at this list:

Player      Team      WPA    DI    PPA
Span, D     MIN      1.98  1.56   5.16
Mauer, J    MIN      4.88  1.20   3.71
Dye, J      CHA     -0.26  0.88   3.48
Hamilton, J TEX      2.80  0.66   2.99
Ramirez, A  CHA      0.31  0.97   2.54
Bradley, M  TEX      2.09  0.65   2.26
Cabrera, M  DET      2.95  0.64   2.24
Giambi, J   NYA      1.96  0.77   2.23
Quentin, C  CHA      3.81  0.57   2.18
Morneau, J  MIN      3.87  1.16   1.88

Oh me oh my, the Denard tops the list! No wonder I keep feeling the urge to buy his t-shirt jersey. Span played well down the stretech in extremely important games -- and thus came out on top of the AL PPA rankings. Mauer was second, as he hit well all season long and didn't stop in September. Morneau was 10th, because despite hitting extremely well all year he shut it down in September. (Sorry to bring back the bad memories.)

Ultimately, 7 of the top 10 PPA hitters came from the AL Central; three from the Twins, three from the White Sox, and one from the Tigers. Is this a fluky result of the dramatic games, or is the AL Central undervalued and underreported, universally, by both the traditional media and the statistical community? Probably a little of both, but Studeman makes his feelings clear on the matter:

Yes, that Denard Span. On September 25th, Span hit a run-scoring triple in the bottom of the eighth to tie a key game with the White Sox (drama index of 4.7, WPA of .425). Multiply those out, and you get a PPA of more than two for just one play. Span also played a lot of critical games for the Twins—I thought that his average Drama Index of 1.56 was a typo until I realized that Span didn't play at all in May and June. He played "when it counted." To his credit, Span didn't have any big negative WPA days when it counted; most players do. [...] I actually did play with a running five-game average of the drama index instead of setting the drama index specific to that game. I used a five-game average because most pitching rotations are five-man rotations, and DI seems to really take off in the last five games of the season. That did mute the impact somewhat. For instance, Joe Mauer leaped to the top of the AL list and Denard Span dropped a bit. But it didn't make a huge difference. I think the system that I've presented here does what it's supposed to do. Every idea, carried to its logical extreme, becomes a caricature of itself.

So there was no chance, in his mind, that the Twins players could have been atop that list. He did what he could to fudge the numbers so "no-name losers" like "Denard Span" wouldn't look like they're "good at baseball." But he couldn't. Without going back to stats like "home runs" and "dollars of revenue per commercial," Span and Mauer are on top of the list. Sorry, America. We're good.

As an amusing aside, he also ran these numbers for pitchers. Johan Santana and CC Sabathia topped the NL. Jon Danks and Scott Baker topped the AL, and the only pitcher in the top 7 who wasn't from either the Twins or White Sox was Mariano Rivera. (Danks, Baker, Jenks, Rivera, Nathan, Mijares, Buehrle. Nice.)

Studeman points out that Danks pitched a great game in the single most dramatic game of the year -- and the PPA he got from that game alone is higher than his season PPA total. Without that performance in that game, he's below average. Talk about leverage.

Just some fun numbers for a lazy Thursday morning. And we've found ourselves a great leadoff hitter in Denard Span. Someday other people may realize that.

Salary Cap?

2009-01-15T00:00:00-08:00

There have been a few owners, namely Milwaukee and Pittsburgh, who have been clamoring for a salary cap this offseason after the Yankees bought seemingly everyone. I figure this is as good a topic as any to discuss.

I think a salary cap will help a lot of teams, but it won't really make as big a difference as people think. Proponents of a cap claim it will create parity, like in the NFL. I disagree. MLB already has parity. We haven't had a repeat World Series winner since, when?, the Yankees in 1999 and 2000? That was really even before they started spending insane amounts of money. They didn't sign Giambi to his mega-deal until after 2001. What did that get them? No rings, that's what. The Red Sox have won two rings recently (2004, 2007) and have had a pretty hefty payroll. However, many contributors weren't high priced players. In their most recent series run, Jacoby Ellsbury played a huge role, and he plays for peanuts. Josh Beckett is still (and was at the time) under contract at a reasonable price. Same goes for David Ortiz. Manny signed a mega-contract the same year as A-Rod, and was a little over halfway through it in 2007. JD Drew was their big free agent pick up, 5 years, 70 mil. He didn't really do much, except have one good playoff game. Ortiz was making 12.5 mil, which is reasonable, if not a good deal, considering his output, Beckett only made 6mil in 07. I could go on, but I think you get my point. The red sox didn't win that year just by outspending everyone. In fact, I would argue that nobody has ever won a world series simply by throwing money at players until they got a ring. Everyone mentions the Yankees, but as I said, they haven't won a title since 2000. In that year, they had only three guys make over 10 million. Bernie Williams, David Cone, and Derek Jeter. The payroll was around 100 million, but considering the economic boom we were in (even though it was almost over) they had to be raking in money hand over fist.

I think the more pressing issue is fixing the draft system. This is where the big money teams (Yankees, Res Sox, etc) have an advantage. The bad teams have high draft picks, but more often than not the elite players tend to drop to the teams with deeper pockets. If I am an elite baseball player, I know that I can demand the moon as a signing bonus and I will drop until someone (most likely the Yankees) gets me. If a person unfamiliar with baseball looks at the first round of a draft, and each player's corresponding signing bonus, it won't make sense. The largest signing bonuses will probably be towards the bottom.

In summary, I don't think the problem is overall free agent spending. Its the draft process. Should we put a cap on signing bonuses? That is probably half the problem. Now we have kids getting major league contracts. In the NFL I don't think signing bonuses count against the cap, so instituting a salary cap won't help all that much. This slotting system is really bogus too. Maybe if they enforce that, it could be a start. What do you guys think?

Midweek Roundup

2009-01-14T00:00:00-08:00

Lets hit on a few things that have been happening with the Twins and around the league these past few days:

Derek Lowe signs with the Braves for four years, $60 mil. Without a no-trade clause. That isn't a terrible signing, considering he is a Boras client. Doesn't Boras almost always get no trade clauses, and opt out clauses for his clients? I'd say the Braves won this one.
The Braves also signed Japanese pitcher Kenshin Kawakami for 3 years, 23 mil. He projects to be a starter. The Braves did a good job this week rebuilding their starting rotation.
Michael Young asked the Rangers to trade him because he doesn't want to switch positions. The Twins popped up as a potential suitor, but I hope Smith and co. respond with an emphatic "No Thanks". Young is bad defensively at short,despite "winning" a gold glove. (I think the term "given" is better than "won" when referring to a gold glove). His OPS, along with almost all his other offensive numbers, have declined steadily in each of the last 4 years. He might be the single most overrated player in the AL.
Manny and Dunn still are unemployed. Dunn will probably sign a one year contract somewhere in the hopes of signing a big money, multiyear contract after the 09 season. Manny will probably wait too long, and come out with a contract that is only slightly better than the money he would have earned had he stayed in Boston. We will all laugh at this.
Jermaine Dye's name is still floating around, but nobody seems willing to trade for him. The Angels are the latest to express no interest.
Mark Prior has been given another chance. Signing a one year, minor league deal with the Padres. Who is second guessing the drafting of Mauer now? That's what I thought.
The Twins spent another week sitting on their hands. As we discussed earlier, this is probably a good thing as prices on free agents are dropping faster than shares of Citigroup.
Bert Blyleven was again denied admission to the baseball hall of fame. I want him to make it to the hall, but I don't think he should get upset over what a few hundred sports writers think of him. Baseball people (GMs, owners, players) know he was great, fans know he was great, and he has a few rings. Everything else is out of his control. I was watching the Mike and Mike radio show before work on Tuesday, and he sounded very frustrated. Hopefully they get it right next year, but if not he shouldn't let it bother him. Easier said than done I'm sure.
Anything else I missed?

AL Central Starters: Value/Salary Ratio

2009-01-13T00:00:00-08:00

I know nobody reads the internet when they're not at work ... but remember this weekend when I evaluated the AL Central teams' value vs salary for their hitters? I do. I also remember saying that as soon as FanGraphs released Win Values for pitchers, I'd do the same for AL Central pitching staffs. Well, today, they did.

Today I'll just start with the starting rotations.

Twins

Salary: $7M Value: $60.7M

White Sox

Salary: $36.7M Value: $98.8M

Indians

Salary (with CC): $34.5M Value (with CC): $98.9M Salary (without CC): $23.5M Value (without CC): $64.7M

Tigers

Salary: $29.7M Value: $58.8M

Royals

Salary: $17.6M Value: $62M

The Twins have a remarkably cheap starting rotation. That $7M figure is one of the numbers that really stands out on here. When you consider that $5M of that went to Livan Hernandez, it gets even more ridiculous. This is part of the value of being able to produce young pitchers -- an inexpensive but effective starting rotation is extremely valuable to a team, especially one on a budget*.

I think it's time to start worrying about these guys hitting arbitration. Especially Baker and Slowey. And Liriano. The nexy couple of offseasons will be rough, and the payroll will skyrocket without adding anything to the team. I hope all the "spend money now for the sake of spending money now" people realize this.

The other striking number is the value the White Sox got. Sure they're paying a lot of money for their rotation, the most in the division by a considerable margin (well, considerable once you take CC out of Cleveland). However, they're getting a ridiculous amount of value out of that rotation, far and away the most in the division (again, once you take CC out of Cleveland).

The White Sox built that success mostly on the arms of three pitchers -- Mark Buehrle, Jon Danks, and Javier Vazquez -- who each contributed over $20M of value. Vazquez is gone, and Danks isn't as good as Floyd; his numbers will probably come back down. But you can't take anything away from what the White Sox starters did in 2008. They were simply brilliant, and the front office did a good job of putting that together on the cheap.

Oh, and the Indians probably would have made the playoffs if they'd kept Sabathia (though nobody could have known that at the time). Lee produced $34.9M and Sabathia contributed $34.2M (overall, split between the Indians and Brewers ... with most of it actually going to Milwaukee). Without going further in depth, I'm going to go ahead and say that it's extremely rare to have two pitchers that effective on the same team*.

To give you an idea, they both produced nearly as many wins above replacement as Santana did in the 2004-2006 years, when he was at his peak. Wins weren't worth as much on the free agent market back then ... but Johan was incredible. Probably even more incredible than my rose-colored memory tells me.

The Detroit Tigers have money, yes, but they don't know how to spend it. For all the money they gave Dontrelle Willis, he contributed negative value to them in 2008. As in, they would have been better off paying him and keeping him in the minors while they have an average AA pitcher in the majors instead. They had only one good pitcher (Verlander) on their staff. They paid Bonderman double what they should have. And even given all that, they still got twice as much value as they paid for.

The Royals got all their positive contributions from Meche and Greinke; both of them were good, and the rest of the rotation was close to nothing. Even with that, though, they outperformed the Twins' pitchers. Part of that, obviously, is that they used more starters: remove any one of their starters, even the worst one (Duckworth), and the Twins got more value from their rotation. In addition, the Royals used 7 starters last year, while the Twins only used 6.

Part of me says "The higher the Value number is, the better your pitching was." In some sense, I think that's true. But if we're actually talking about Value, then it's not just what you get; it's also what you paid for it. So another thing I want to look at is the Value/Salary Ratio:

Twins: 8.66 Royals: 3.53 Indians: 2.75 White Sox: 2.69 Tigers: 1.98

Obviously, that makes the Twins look a lot better. A ratio like that indicates that the Twins are able to put together a quality rotation without spending much (any) money.

The problem, of course, is that it's not high quality. It's just quality. And a ratio like that simply doesn't scale. It could go down in 2009, if any of Baker/Slowey/Blackburn regresses, if Liriano doesn't continue to show improvement, or if anyone gets injured. (On the other hand, it could go up significantly given that Livan is gone and the rotation will cost under $3m in 2009.)*

Without Livan Hernandez, the Twins spent $2.01M on the rotation and got $53.7M in value, for a truly absurd 26.75 Value/Salary Ratio. Is that the number we should be shooting for in 2009? Is it in any way reasonable to expect this?

Still, building a rotation this way does not scale. There are only so many rotation spots, and pitchers can only add so much value. It's not reasonable to expect your 4/5 starters to be as effective as your 1/2 starters, and without spending money you're not going to improve the group. The only way this system can scale is if there's a constant flow of talented new pitchers coming out of the farm system to replace the guys who got expensive. That flow of pitchers can never dry up, or else your rotation falls apart. That means you can't sign Type A free agents, because you need draft picks. That means you can't trade from your strength to fill your holes*. When you don't have money to spend, you need to focus on the pitching pipeline.

I think this explains everything about the way the Twins are operated, why they value pitching so much, why they don't chase good free agents, and why they avoid trading pitchers like the plague. Note that Ryan never traded a pitcher until he was done with him and there was a new guy ready to step in. Smith sent Garza packing when Ryan wouldn't have, and thus far it looks like it didn't work out. Smith will probably be a bit gunshy on those trades from now on.

The White Sox found that balance in 2008. Between veterans Buehrle, Vazquez and Contreras, as well as talented rookies Danks and Floyd, they put together a high quality rotation using a model that scales. As in, you can spend more money and, if done right, expect that your Value/Salary Ratio will stay the same and you'll simply have a better team.

I'd like to see these numbers for all the teams in the league. Maybe even go back and do it for previous years. I want to see what the common ratio is. I'd guess that it's somewhere between 2 and 3; that's why teams spend a lot of money on pitching, and that's why the national media thinks it matters what the team's payroll is. Spending more money leads to better players, therefore the team spending more money will have a better team. (That's probably also a reason they don't understand the Twins. How can a V/S ratio of 8 (or 26) even be possible?)

I'd like to see the Twins able to spend more money on their rotation. If they could sign one or two good pitchers to head the rotation, they could keep the pipeline going to fill three spots instead of five, and they'd be able to deal pitchers for hitters. That's a more balanced system, with more upside than just hoping you get 3-5 good years out of the young pitchers before they're too expensive and leave for greener pastures. It just requires that we have a bit more money to spend. And it's getting more and more expensive just to stay where we are.

Mariners Open Up to the Fans

2009-01-12T00:00:00-08:00

On Saturday, the new Mariners' regime had a sitdown conference with a few hundred fans; they not only spoke about their upcoming plans for the organization, but also opened the floor to questions. It apparently lasted three and a half hours, with no breaks.

It doesn't sound like they revealed anything Earth-shattering. But I think it's a good show-of-faith on their part, and a great way to get the fans involved. Unless you're saying stuff like "We plan to have an eight man rotation," or "Five infielders and two outfielders is the ideal defensive alignment," or "Felix Hernandez sucks, we're going to cut his ass," this is the kind of thing that can't go badly.

One interesting bit:

Orgs they respect: Twins came up w/r/t scouting and the continuity of philosophy. Atlanta and the continual reloading during contention.

Once again, the Twins are specifically named as the model other organizations (claim) to aspire to. (Although I personally find it amusing that they said they respect the continuity of philosophy in the same offseason that they're overhauling their entire front office and installing a new philosophy -- are they just saying they want to keep their jobs for the next 20 years?)

Would it hurt the Twins to do something like this? I think the fanbase is hungry for more information from the team, and also for the sense of having more input. One of the many old-school philosophies of the Twins is the "We run the team, and you're going to sit there and like it" attitude. It's very Old Media.

Which is simultaneously the reason they won't put on a similar conference and the reason they shouldn't do it. As long as they have that attitude, a conference like that won't work -- what made it work for the Mariners was that the new regime has adopted a sense of transparency. They want the fans to trust them, and they're doing that not by saying "Just trust us," but rather by saying "Here's what we plan to do, here's why, and here's how."

While the Twins are a little bit open to the media (and thus, indirectly, the fans), and we pretty much already know their overarching philosophy and "plan," I simply can't see them opening up directly to the fans like this. Unless something fundamentally changes.

At the same time, though, should something change? Since the Twins are the model for every small and mid market team, all of whom are trying hard to replicate their success and their process, is it really in their interest to open up and reveal their blueprint, regardless of how interested their fans are?

There are times for transparency, and when half the league is desperately trying to figure out how you do what you do ... well, then that's not one of those times.

Bloomquist, Dunn, and the Twins Way

2009-01-11T00:00:00-08:00

Posnanski has yet another great post up (he's got about a .990 blogOBP, which is pretty incredible -- it's probably higher than Bill Simmons, definitely higher than Rob Neyer, and without question higher than mine ... I'm like the Carlos Gomez of blogging).

This time around, he's talking about the difference between Adam Dunn and Willie Bloomquist.

As some of you may know, Adam Dunn is a big lumbering slugger. A base clogger with a low batting average who walks a lot and hits home runs. He attempts to play left field, though that's probably only because he's always played in the NL -- he's brutal in the field. He's essentially the prototypical masher, and he's even been accused of not liking baseball. He plays ball like it's his job, and he performs his job efficiently and without passion.

Of less interest is Willie Bloomquist, who is essentially the opposite. He can play every position, and clearly loves baseball. He runs around the diamond with passion, and is built from the stuff that inspires young children. Except he hit exactly one extra base hit in 2008, and doesn't draw any walks. His brand of ball is often exciting, but doesn't always end up scoring the most runs.

And my point is that I believe every baseball fan, at his/her core, leans Dunn or Bloomquist.* People who believe that on-base percentage and slugging are the most significant things, that defense and speed are overrated, that what matters is what you do and not how you look doing it lean heavily Dunn. The New York Yankees have leaned heavily Dunn: Get on base, slug the ball, don’t worry too much about catching it. And so on.

As soon as I read that, I was thinking about myself and the Twins. Philosophically, I believe I lean toward the Bloomquist way; I thoroughly enjoy the smaller things about baseball, a good play in the field, and I like swinging at the first pitch and I don't like watching walks. At the same time, however, I understand intellectually that it's not realistic to find nine players who can field well and hit .330 with a bit of power -- in fact, it's remarkable that we have two of them on the same team at the same time*. Drawing walks and hitting home runs is a better, more consistent way of scoring more runs, which is really the crux of the game.

A lineup full of Albert Pujols would score over 1400 runs per season. He hits for average and power, and he draws walks. He's basically just awesome. The only thing that could be better is if he were a switch hitter and/or a shortstop. But those are pretty unreasonable demands for the best player in the sport.

The Twins, as an organization, lean drastically toward Bloomquist. If we weren't stuffed to the gills with outfielders and utility players, we'd probably have been in the running for Bloomquist -- he's the type of player the Twins like to have. The only guy on the team who draws walks is Mauer*, and the only reason he's there is because he's the hometown boy and we got absurdly lucky.

Also Span, but the only reason he's there is because we didn't know he'd draw walks at the major league level -- he never did in the minors. Well, the real reason he's there is because we thought he'd be the next Torii Hunter back in 2002. That means we thought he wouldn't draw any walks. Also, are we all convinced now that Span is going to be good forever? Up until Spring Training last year, he was a complete and unmitigated bust in everyone's eyes but his own. By Opening Day, he may not have been a bust but he still sucked. Now he's the third best hitter on our team after Mauer and Morneau and is the established leadoff hitter. Maybe players can turn the corner like that after having almost no success in the minors; maybe the eye surgery really made that big a difference; maybe his five-six years in the minors are meaningless and his one year in the majors is his true level of talent. But maybe not. Why are we all convinced all of a sudden?

Of course, Posnanski is one of the few people outside of Minnesota that seems to think regularly of Minnesota. I think part of that is because he's spent his life in Cleveland and Kansas City, rather than New York and Boston and LA, and therefore notices and respects a place like Minnesota because of both proximity and the apparently consistent ability to do more with the same meager resources.

At the same time, there are plenty of people in the game and in the stands who believe that you win by doing the little things, by playing defense and running out ground balls and playing the game with passion every day. They lean heavily Bloomquist. The Minnesota Twins, for instance, lean Bloomquist.. The Twins run and catch the ball and they have not worried too much about power or on-base percentage. This, no doubt, frustrates the heck out of a lot of Dunn-leaning Twins fans.

Yes, here in the blogosphere, there are a lot of angry Twins fans. They don't understand why the Twins are stuck on guys like Punto rather than guys like Dunn. They feel like the team is overrating defense and versatility and underrating walks and power. Maybe they're right, but the thing is, that's who the Twins are. It's what they've always been. Some teams have changed their philosophies over the years -- they fire their GMs and managers and replace the front office to get a new philosophy installed. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, and sometimes the organization doesn't wait long enough to find out and starts over. The Twins value loyalty, and have never done that. They stick with their front office until they decide to retire, then allow them to name their own successor. We may be annoyed by this, and fear the the next manager will be Scott Ullger rather than Stu/Stan Cliburn, but this is how it works in Twins Territory.

So I think we should try not to really get our hopes up about signing Adam Dunn or Manny Ramirez, even though thinking about it is fun for a little while.

We should stop hoping that Gardy wakes up one morning having had a revelation during the night that walks are important and we should try to value getting on base and scoring runs as opposed to hacking at every pitch we can see. It's not going to happen*.

Which is too bad, since it's kind of the point of this blog. Oh well. Just like Gardy's not going to stop, neither are we. Will it be like the unstoppable force meets the immovable object? Or will it be more like the less cliched, more likely scenario in which the force is not technically unstoppable nor is the object truly immovable, and they don't end up meeting at all? You decide.

But at least the Twins organization knows who they are. Dayton Moore of the Royals has been saying since he got there that he believes in OBP and it'll help them score more runs and he's going to instill in his players the wisdom of the bible of OBP. Except then he always turns around and acquires guys with a .300 OBP, which just isn't helping the cause. At least when we pick up a .300 OBP guy we don't say "he gets on base a lot," which is how Moore described Bloomquist.

AL Central Value: Who Gets What They Pay For?

2009-01-10T00:00:00-08:00

I know people only read this site on weekdays between 9 and 5 (which is interesting, of course), but I thought today would be a good time to look at value.

I want to compare the monetary value a team actually received from their players, and compare it to the dollars paid out. For now, I'll just do this for the AL Central. I'm getting my value-received numbers from FanGraphs, and my dollars-paid numbers from Cot's Contracts (for payroll) and Baseball-Reference (for calculating individual salaries -- turns out Cot's has already updated some things and they no longer have some of the players; for example, Adam Everett is with the Tigers instead of the Twins, Edgar Renteria, Joe Crede, and Orlando Cabrera are gone, etc).

I first just checked the total team payroll ... but the FanGraphs win value projection doesn't include pitchers right now. It's just for hitting and fielding. So the total team payroll isn't accurate -- I have to remove the cost of the pitchers, and include only the hitters. It's not the best, but we'll just have to wait until FanGraphs calculates pitcher win values and adds them to their site.

Twins:

Value received: $72.2 million Team payroll: $56.9 million Hitters payroll: $37.6 million Value gap: +34.6 million

White Sox:

Value received: $86.7 million Team payroll:$121.2 million Hitters payroll: $79.6 million Value gap: +7.1 million

Tigers:

Value received: $76.0 million Team payroll: $137.7 million Hitters payroll: $95.8 million Value gap: -19.8 million

Indians

Value received: $95.8 million Team payroll: $79 million Hitters payroll: $34.8 million Value gap: +61 million

Royals

Value received: $66.7 million Team payroll: $58.2 million Hitters payroll: $30.7 million Value gap: +36 million

I don't know how valuable these numbers are. One thing is obvious -- the Tigers didn't get what they paid for last year. They paid the most for their hitters, and they got barely more than the Twins and Royals. The Indians got by far the best value, paying as much as the Twins and Royals but getting far more than all the other teams in the division.

It's a small sample size (just one year, just five teams), but I wonder if this can tell us anything about how valuable it is to the team to raise payroll. It seems easy for teams to get great value from their hitters if they don't spend very much -- because a higher percentage of their players are making the minimum. And presuming all your free agent contracts work out as planned, the value gap diminishes until all your players are free agents and the gap is zero; of course, if the contracts don't work, you're the Tigers and you're overpaying for old veterans who can't provide the production you're paying them for. Oops.

Another thing to look at, value-wise, is the offensive and defensive contributions to total value.

Twins

Offense: -2.9 Defense: -25.5

White Sox

Offense: 22.7 Defense: -18.0

Tigers

Offense: 18.1 Defense: -38.0

Indians

Offense: 18.8 Defense: 6.2

Royals

Offense: -55.2 Defense: 19.2

This paints a slightly different picture, and gets to what the teams are actually trying to do to build their team. The Twins' defense was the worst it's been in a long, long time; this indicates the team's intent to sacrifice a little bit of defense to improve their offense, which was the cry of the fans for the past few offseasons. The problem is that they sacrificed a lot more defense than they should have, and they didn't get any offense back. Their offense was quite a bit worse than the White Sox, Indians, and Tigers. The Twins were the only team to be bad on both offense and defense -- if it weren't for their unusual "ability" to hit with runners in scoring position, we would have been a pretty weak team. (Of course, this isn't taking pitching into account; it's possible that the Twins' pitching made up the difference.)

Meanwhile, the Indians were the only team to be good on both offense and defense. If it weren't for their rough start to the season, they would have run away with the division. Consider us lucky ... and don't expect it to happen again. They'll be dangerous in 2009, especially if Hafner and Martinez get healthy and remember how to hit.

The White Sox and Tigers have similarly built teams -- "Just get me a bunch of sluggers, I don't care what position they play!" As a result, they both have a slew of expensive, 1B/DH types who smash the ball but don't wield their gloves that well. It's not a great way to build a team, since it tends to be the most expensive way; sluggers demand the biggest, longest contracts despite being unable to field their position and aging faster than anyone. But if you have the money, it can work.

I don't know if this taught us much. The Tigers and White Sox want sluggers, the Indians are a well balanced team that gets great value given its payroll, the Royals have no idea how to construct a team, and the Twins need to drastically improve either their offense or their defense without sacrificing the other (which should be possible given that not many teams are below average both offensively and defensively).

If I were to make some guesses for 2009, I'd say that the Indians will probably have production about the same, maybe a bit better, and it'll actually be reflected in their record this time around. The Tigers may have some rebound from some players, but continued decline from others, and will probably be a non-factor again. The White Sox will be good again; their sluggers have suffered their decline and are now sitting at a lower, still-effective plateau while their young players are improving and their pitching is solid. The Royals are going nowhere, given their expenditures this offseason and the fact that they're acquiring cheap/ineffective 1B/DH types to combat the Tigers' expensive ones, rather than building from the center like you're supposed to. The Twins need to rely on improvements from their young players (pretty likely), including a drastic jump in production from Delmon Young both offensively and defensively, offensive improvement from Gomez and Casilla, and Buscher/Harris solidifying their defense while contributing a little at the plate.

Unless the Twins shock the world and upgrade at 3B or DH, I'd expect the 2009 AL Central to look about like this:

Indians Twins White Sox Tigers Royals

And since it's the Twins, it'll probably go right down to the wire and be another exciting summer. I can't wait.

(35 days until pitchers and catchers!)

Would You Rather Be The Royals?

2009-01-09T00:00:00-08:00

Okay everyone, remember in my last post when I mentioned that Reusse had claimed that the Royals were making moves that would somehow vault them out of the AL Central Basement? Well, it seemed pretty dubious at the time. And, like the good statistical guys that they are, the guys over at FanGraphs have taken a look at their acquisitions this winter.

Here's a quick synopsis:

Kyle Farnsworth - 2 years, $9 million, 2006 to 2008: 0.1 wins above replacement Mike Jacobs - 1 year, $3.5 million, 2006 to 2008: 0.7 wins above replacement Horacio Ramirez - 1 year, $1.9 million, 2006 to 2008: 0.2 wins above replacement Willie Bloomquist - 2 years, $3 million, 2006 to 2008: 0.3 wins above replacement Those Win Value totals are not per year, but three year totals. Over the last three seasons, that foursome has been worth 1.3 wins combined. That’s 12 player-seasons to accumulate just over one marginal win. If you were trying to scrape up examples of major league players who represent replacement level performance, you couldn’t do much better than this group. That those four will earn a collective $11.4 million in 2009 is pretty staggering. $11.4 million for four guys who, if everything goes right, will add something like one win to the Royals roster next year. $11.4 million for one win. I guess it’s better than the $12 million they spent to get 0.2 wins from Jose Guillen last winter, but that’s in the same way that getting stabbed is better than getting shot.

The Royals are essentially doing exactly what Reusse and his ilk would recommend -- making a quick slew of moves that you can "sell" to your fanbase, essentially saying "look at this, we're trying really hard!" The problem is that these are terrible, unbelievably dumb moves that make the team worse and cost a lot of money, especially compared to what you're getting.

Replacement level players are supposed to cost you league minimum, maybe just a little above it. You're supposed to be able to get replacement level talent from your AA and AAA teams, just in case you need to replace an injured/departed player. You're not supposed to throw free agent megabucks at replacement level "talent." But that's what the Royals are doing. They're paying $11.4M for one win -- when a win costs $5M on the free agent market. And they're doing it over four players, who all get playing time and take up roster spots. That's almost worse than Jose Guillen's situation -- and that's saying a whole lot.

And that, of course, is why they're the Royals.

Is anyone else afraid that they're suddenly going to leapfrog us?

Reusse Makes a Fool of Himself, Again

2009-01-09T00:00:00-08:00

Patrick Reusse is a sad, cranky old man.

What's making him sad and cranky these days? Well, it's the fact that Bill Smith isn't running around like a crazed, headless chicken, throwing dollars and prospects at everything that moves. In his recent article, Reusse spends the first 60% of his prose poking fun at the recently deceased Pohlad, knocking Smith for his reputation as Assistant GM, attempting to come up with lame new nicknames, and pointing out that the other AL Central teams are all destined to win the World Series in 2009 while the Twins go 0-162 -- after all, the Indians made a bunch of win-now moves, the Royals have made "moves that could give it a chance to keep moving forward from last season's lofty fourth-place finish" (ooh, I'm shaking in my boots), the Tigers keep moving backwards, and the White Sox have "have lost more assets than they have gained." Clearly, the Twins need to act afraid now, since those four teams have clearly improved themselves so much!

He bemoans the fact that we signed Nick Punto, because it wasn't enough -- more! He insults RA Dickey, as if he expects Gardy to roll into Opening Day with the old knuckleballer on the roster. Reusse wants moves! He wants Smith to make a fool of himself so he can point out why the moves won't work!

Smith flinched at giving a third year to free agent Casey Blake, an answer at third base. Smith flinched at exceeding the package of marginal prospects Cleveland sent to the Cubs for Mark DeRosa, a better answer at third.

Well, we've talked about this before, of course. Giving a third year to Blake would have been foolish, and the Dodgers will regret that. But they're more accustomed to making expensive mistakes with their roster -- hello, Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones -- while the Twins would rather avoid paying someone several million dollars when they're old and incapable of actually playing baseball. Weird. And the Cubs didn't give the Twins the chance to give them something between the Indians' miniscule package and the Slowey/Span/prospects deal they demanded from us -- that's not Smith's fault. And Derosa's a one year rental anyway. Does Reusse really think his career 97 OPS+ would look that great in our lineup?

Then we get to the true gold of the article. Reusse lists the possible options that Smith might have available to improve the team. With each one, he gives a surprisingly lucid explanation of why signing them would not work out or be in the Twins' interest or even be possible. Then, for each one, he accuses the Twins of being foolish, cheap, and afraid, due to the fact that they're not out there stupidly taking risks and spending money, for the sole purpose of creating news for Reusse to complain about. It's no wonder newspapers are going out of business. Patrick Reusse works at one.

I particularly love this line:

the Twins have missed on enough expensive first-rounders that an elite setup guy such as Cruz would be worth sitting it out this time.

Oh yes. It works on so many levels! The Twins have missed on a whole slew of "expensive" first-rounders -- like Torii Hunter, Jason Varitek (asshole), Todd Walker, Michael Cuddyer, Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Glen Perkins, Matt Garza, plus great current prospects Ben Revere and Aaron Hicks (who many scouts say may be the best talent in the minors right now). That's just a terrible, unforgivably bad haul for the first round. I mean, they're only batting .500 with their first round picks! All the other teams draft nothing but uber-prospects in the first round. In fact, I can't think of another team who has EVER drafted ANYBODY in the first round who didn't end up being a FUCKING SUPERSTAR. So yes, the Twins would be better off just not trying to draft people any more.

And also, Reusse was just talking about the fact that Cruz wouldn't even sign with us because he wouldn't be our closer. So it's not even relevant whether Reusse thinks we should sign the guy. It's a good thing we're talking about it!

On Tuesday, the Twins allowed themselves to be outbid (two years, $10 million) by Baltimore for Koji Uehara, a righthander from Japan.

I don't think I can handle it any more. You mean to tell me that the Minnesota Twins, with a rotation of 25-and-under players making the minimum (ie, the entire rotation costs $2.5M), all of whom have demonstrated at least some success in the majors, and an entire pipeline of another dozen top pitching prospects ready to step in if anyone falters, failed to outbid a team that has a shot at running out the worst rotation of all time? How did we let this happen? Also, why should we spend twice as much money on an unproven back-of-the-rotation Japanese guy than on the entire rotation, when everyone else in the rotation is better than he is? Who in blazes cares if Uehara went to Baltimore? Good for him! It just means that A-Rod and Longoria will be smashing home runs off him instead of Jim Thome and Miguel Cabrera.

Five weeks from spring training, Smith's second offseason needs to gather momentum to reach abysmal.

And thus, we're finished. I think it's been pretty conclusively demonstrated that doing stupid things that hurt the team is better than not doing stupid things. That's why this offseason has, somehow, been worse than abysmal. We should have given Casey Blake three years and more dollars! We should have traded Slowey and Span for Derosa! We should sacrifice our first round pick (which has a 50% chance of becoming a good major leaguer for us for a period of six years) in order to get our hands on an overpriced relief pitcher (who are by definition unpredictable and short-lived) for two or three years!

Failing to be a horseshit GM isn't much of a failure. Just saying.

Taking Advantage of the Free Agent Market Correction

2009-01-08T00:00:00-08:00

FunBobby wrote this morning about hunting for bargains, and that more prices may drop as the offseason progresses and free agents actually get worried that they're squeezing themselves out of a job. I think that's more than possible, and it'd be a good thing. Especially for a mid-market team like the Twins.

Speaking of which, remember when we were talking about Orlando Cabrera? The Twins were allegedly thinking about him, before breaking off talks a while back. Well, he's still unsigned, and our fellow mid-market Blue Jays have this to say about him:

"I like Cabrera, and think he could help us," one highly ranked Blue Jays executive said. "But I cannot justify giving up a pick for a 34-year-old shortstop on a one- or two-year deal. It makes absolutely no sense for us. None."

In my mind, it's pretty likely that the Twins had similar (if not identical) discussions internally, which is why they moved on. Of course, losing a draft pick when signing Cabrera would be even worse for the Twins than the Jays -- the draft pick would go directly to the hated White Sox. We can't afford to let that happen, so we have to walk away from Type A free agents.

And we're not the only team that's thinking that way these days. Most small and mid market teams are starting to put a huge value on their draft picks, in an attempt to stock their farm systems and build a successful franchise, in the model of the Twins (and now also the Rays). As Billy Beane will attest, the most important thing to do is to be contrarian -- when teams were overvaluing batting average and RBI, he valued OBP and built a good team cheaply. Now, teams are starting to overvalue their own farm systems and draft picks, at the expense of aging free agents -- and Beane is making a strong push to take the AL West by spending money.

Now, I'm not about to advocate that the Twins start signing Type A free agents, especially to short-term contracts (the value of a lost draft pick is mitigated if you get many years of high level production out of the free agent -- short term contracts are just foolish in this case). But, again like the Blue Jays are hoping to do, it may help us keep our hands on our own guys, and extend them before they reach free agency. By pointing out that they like the city and they like their teammates and they've got a good thing going, and most importantly pointing out that the gap in dollars that we can offer versus the dollars waiting in free agency is shrinking, we become more likely to extend our young players before they get to free agency. Not necessarily the Mauers (though that'd be great), but the somewhat lesser but still important players like Baker, Slowey, and Span.

Even with the economy the way it is and the ownership in transition, there are opportunities out there for the Twins. Whether it's taking advantage of the market to get Dunn on a one year deal, or waiting for Wigginton's price to drop into our comfort zone, or extending our young players before they get expensive, the Twins can make things happen that can help the team today and in the future.

Bargain Hunting

2009-01-08T00:00:00-08:00

Maybe Bill Smith hasn't been sitting on his hands all offseason. Maybe he has just been waiting for prices on everything to drop. For a lot of free agents this offseason, its been a staring contest between teams and players, waiting to see who blinks first. Outside of the Yankees, most teams have been good about not caving to initial demands. Scott Boras looks like an idiot now after telling all of his clients to decline arbitration. Some say the Union suggested big name players do this as well. The players who are in the most trouble are the ones who cost a draft pick. Juan Cruz is a name that stands out to me. He was pretty good last year, but doesn't have that much of a track record. So why should a team pay him a ton of money, and give up draft picks? He could end up on a bad team whose picks are protected, but those are the teams who won't give him a big contract. A catch-22 really. I could totally be misusing that phrase, but who cares. I do what I want.

I believe the players will blink first. They are the ones who are unemployed. Could the price of Ty Wigginton (for example) drop so low that he falls into the price range of the Twins. Say what you want about Wigginton, but the price was the thing keeping me away, not his skillset. If we can get him for two years, why not. I have a feeling some players might sign a one year deal, hope they have a kickass year, and then next year go for the mega-bucks. Who knows, the economy might have rebounded by then, and teams will have more money to throw around. That would be in the best interest of the Twins, because we could nab a few normally high priced vets at bargain prices for the short term. They in turn are playing for their next payday so they but up good numbers for us, and we all part of good terms at seasons end. It's a win-win. Thoughts? Did Bill Smith do the right thing by waiting for prices to drop, or was he foolish to make no moves early in the offseason? Did most of the agents overestimate their clients ability to get a big contract?

Wednesday Notes

2009-01-07T00:00:00-08:00

It's been a little slow in Twins-land since the owner passed away, so I'll just jot down some quick notes here.

As long as everyone is telling the truth about Mauer's kidney surgery -- ie, that it went well, he's fine, and will be ready for the season -- I think it's great. I'm a little miffed that we weren't made aware of this allegedly lifelong problem earlier, but not nearly as miffed as I would have been had he played in the World Baseball Classic. I'm all for supporting your country and all, and I'll be watching every game I can and rooting for Team USA, but at the same time there's no way I want Mauer catching 190 games this year. It seems to me that the timing of the surgery was deliberate; he'll be ready for the season and gets to bow out of the WBC without actually "refusing." Nice work Joe.
Over at FanGraphs.com, they've come up with something called Win Value. It essentially counts how many runs a player is worth both offensively and defensively (versus replacement level, which is significantly below average), then uses the assumption that 10 runs is equivalent to 1 win to determine how many wins above replacement a player is. Then, and this is the interesting part, they use the "market value" of a win on the free agent market (which is different each year, increasing steadily since they started measuring it) to determine the monetary value of that player in each year. The reason I bring this up is because they have Joe Mauer pegged at $25.7 million in 2008. But, in their ongoing series explaining Win Values, they mention something about catcher defense: they haven't figured out how to quantify it yet, so all catchers are assumed to be average and equivalent to each other. So if the catcher is outstanding defensively (they specifically mention Joe Mauer), they'd add a full win to his total. At around $5M per win, they're essentially valuing Mauer at $30M per season. (Well, per MVP-caliber season. He's batting about .500 on those. Which is a whole lot better than most great players.) I think we need to do what we can to extend Mauer's contract as soon as possible ... otherwise we're screwed and he's going to be playing elsewhere in 2011.
Former Twin and current World Series champion JC Romero was busted this week for steroid use. Upon hearing his side of the story (he bought something that wasn't labeled as bad, wasn't on any lists, got a trainer opinion, a second trainer opinion, asked the players' union about it, finally took it, then it was banned after that and he tested positive for it), I thought the 50 game suspension was pretty steep. It sounded obvious that he didn't mean to do anything wrong. I've since learned that the substance he purchased was 6-OXO, which increases testosterone, and has a label that says, essentially, "If you play a sport, this substance is probably banned in that sport." Also, he tested positive for androstenedione, of Mark McGuire fame. Romero doesn't seem that innocent any more. But overall, this sounds like another StarCaps case, where the players are trying to do their due diligence, the league and the players' union drop the ball, then they throw the players under the bus and suspend them for the league's mistakes. Nobody's in the right here, but I don't think Romero should be the one paying the full brunt of the penalties for this.
The Indians, after a disappointing 2008, have been moving fast this offseason. They were involved in the 12 player mega-deal that sent JJ Putz to the Mets, they signed Kerry Wood, they acquired Mark Derosa, and now they've signed Carl Pavano. People are often disappointed and even angry that the Twins don't make more moves and try to improve the team with the same sense of desperation that the Indians seem to have right now. But that's just the thing -- the Indians reek of desperation. Wood is good, but do you really think Mauer and Morneau are incapable of winning games off him? Do you also think he'll stay healthy? Derosa, as I've mentioned before, will come crashing back down to earth now that he's out of Wrigley, and they'd regret that trade if they'd actually had to give up anything. Carl Pavano is Carl Pavano -- which means he'll make a couple of mediocre starts and get hurt. The fact that the Indians are throwing so much at the wall and trying so hard tells you exactly one thing -- that they know how good the Twins (and White Sox) are. We don't have to act with the same desperation.

That's all I've got right now. I kind of like that format. Maybe I'll do it again.

Fun With the DH

2009-01-07T00:00:00-08:00

People have been talking about Manny Ramirez lately. A lot. The latest rumor seems to be 3 years, $63M from the Giants. Given the fact that Burrell went for 2/$16M, and Dunn is still available, that seems really high. Manny's numbers are sure to come down.

Baseball Prospectus had this to say about possible AL suitors:

AL teams with holes at DH or even in left field should be coming in on Ramirez given where the price of relative talent lies. The White Sox list a bit to the right, but they were running DeWayne Wise out there in the postseason, so clearly there's some need for a major league left fielder, and Ramirez could move to DH when Jim Thome's contract expires after this season. The Indians' inability to get production from the corners hurt them last season, and only Shin-Soo Choo is clearly worthy of playing time. Ramirez would also insure against the continued failure of Travis Hafner. By the way, Hafner's four-year, $57 million extension is just kicking in now, and it's been nearly two years since his last stretch of productivity. He'll be 32 in June.

So ... the White Sox and Indians are the main options? Sure, they're teams willing to try to hit home runs. But if you're going through the AL Central looking for teams that could use a little more production out of their DH, I don't see how you can overlook the Twins.

Here's what we got from the DH slot last season:

.269/.344/.438, 19 HR, 98 R, 94 RBI

This season our DH is Kubel, and here's what he did:

.272/.335/.471, 20 HR, 74 R, 78 RBI

Here's what Manny Ramirez did last season:

.332/.430/.601, 37 HR, 102 R, 121 RBI

And, given Manny's price and problems ... here's Adam Dunn:

.236/.383/.513, 40 HR, 79 R, 100 RBI

Kubel, obviously, is the cheapest option. And while Dunn stands to be fairly inexpensive (given Burrell's contract with the Rays), I don't know if the marginal gains over fellow-lefty Kubel justify the massive cost bump. Ramirez might actually be worth the money for us -- can you imagine him hitting between Mauer and Morneau? Because I can, and it's awesome.

Good Bye Carl Pohlad

2009-01-05T00:00:00-08:00

This afternoon, Carl Pohlad died. He was 93 years old.

I've had my differences with Pohlad over the years. And while he was the owner of the Twins, it was always very easy to villainize him. Demanding interest from the state on an $80 million "gift," threatening to sell the team to a North Carolina businessman, attempting to contract the team, refusing to increase payroll despite being the wealthiest owner in baseball, building his fortune by foreclosing on people's farms during the Great Depression (which hits the heartstrings particularly hard these days), and a history of shady business deals on which he always seems to come out ahead are all reasons Pohlad's been the butt of many angry jokes over the years.

But now is most certainly not the time to focus on those things. Despite all the threats, Pohlad kept the team in Minnesota throughout the dark years of the 1990s. He signed Kent Hrbek to the largest contract in baseball history, and Kirby Puckett to the largest contract ever offered to an outfielder, just to keep them with the Twins (that both contracts were superseded immediately is unimportant). He stayed out of the way enough for Terry Ryan to rebuild the franchise to its current level of perpetual quality -- notice that most owners demand either short-sighted moves that hurt the team in the long run, or payroll-slashing moves that hurt the team even more. And he won two World Series championships in his tenure as owner.

He finally managed to win a new stadium, and the greatest tragedy of his life is that he won't live to see it.

Today is a dark day for Twins fans, and I'm sad to see Pohlad go. The future is uncertain -- will his sons take over in Steinbrenner-like fashion? If they do, will they spend their father's money more freely, or will they be more spendthrift? If they don't, who will buy the team now, when big money is hard to come by -- and will the team stay in Minnesota? I'm hoping for status quo or better, but without Carl around things just might get worse.

But there are a couple things that give me hope.

The first is that Pohlad's sons work for the Twins, and one of them has been groomed for many years to take over the team. All three of his sons have been taking more control of the team as Pohlad has aged rapidly in the last decade. That points to status quo.

The second is a statement from son Robert Pohlad:

"My dad started with nothing, worked very hard and has been tremendously successful. I think he truly believes that if he doesn't work hard, he's gonna be back on a food line or a bread line ... looking for his next meal.''

That's a pretty typical mindset for people of that generation; it's the generation of packrats, constantly in fear that their life will plunge back to those terrible days and they'll have nothing. It makes sense ... and it also makes sense that people who grew up in subsequent generations would not share those same fears.

His sons grew up in said subsequent generations, during the boom years of the second half of the 20th century; they've seen recessions and bouncebacks, they've seen that the economy rebounds every time, and most of all, they've always had money. Lots of money. They've seen their father make money faster than he could possibly spend it, and they've seen his fortune grow to the 100th largest in America.

It's more than possible that his sons recognize the fact that they're not taking it with them, that the fortune will last long enough to pass on to their own children, and their children's children, in perpetuity. Payroll could easily go up, rising above the 52% of revenue limit. It's something to hope for; a little upside, as it were.

So rest in peace, Carl Pohlad. Your time in Minnesota was a good one, and you will be missed. Thanks for all the good times, and good teams.

And condolences to the Pohlad family. Follow in your father's footsteps -- keep the team in Minnesota and in the family. But don't be afraid to step a few feet from the tree, and spend a few bucks. (It'll help you get respect from the fans while you're still alive.)

Go Twins. The team will outlast us all. That's the ultimate hope of every fan.

Derosa to Cleveland - Don't Panic

2009-01-01T00:00:00-08:00

So the Indians completed a trade with the Cubs. The Indians get Mark Derosa to replace Casey Blake (and to keep him away from the Twins, who were also interested). The Cubs get three no-name pitching "prospects" in return; one who split time in AA and AAA and might make the bullpen this year, and two in Low-A ball.

Obviously, now all the Twins fans are furious. They're pissed at Bill Smith and the rest of the front office for sitting on their hands and not making a deal that, in the minds of these fans, would DEFINITELY have helped the team. With Derosa manning third base, these fans say, the Twins are an unstoppable juggernaut who will win 110 games and dominate all the way to the World Series! Without him, this team is nothing but a ragtag group of nobodies who will be proud of their inevitable fourth place finish. Clearly, Mark Derosa is the key, the lynch pin, the final ingredient! Allowing him to pass through our fingers is an unforgivable mistake; especially since he has gone to the Cleveland Indians, who will now be the favorite in the AL Central since they've replaced Casey Blake with Mark Derosa.

Casey Blake, 2008: .274/.345/.463, 21 HR, 81 RBI Mark Derosa, 2008: .285/.376/.481, 21 HR, 87 RBI Mark Derosa, Career 162 game average: .279/.348/.422, 13 HR, 64 RBI (ie, that's closer to what we'd get from him given the fact that Wrigley is a great hitter's park and he had a career year)

Obviously, Derosa is going to put the Indians over the top. After all, he's so much better than Blake was! And obviously he's all the Twins needed to get to the World Series, given that those career averages are SO much better than what we can possibly hope to get from a Buscher/Harris platoon. The sky is falling, for Christ's sake, and we need to do some saber-rattling to let the front office know how badly they've blown this! Obviously.

But the problem here is not with the Twins' front office. It's not some reputation that we're not willing to give up anything good. It's much worse than that -- something the Twins can't do anything about.

The Twins are renowned around baseball for getting the better side of trades. People point to our questionable acquisition of Johan Santana, and they point to the Nathan/Liriano/Bonser Heist, and they think "Watch out for those Twins, they'll take everything you've got and leave you holding the bag!" So they do everything they can to make sure we don't screw them.

Thus, when the Rays were trying to unload their talented but immature corner outfielders last year, they demanded an ace pitcher and a starting shortstop and a talented minor league reliever (in fact demanding that we upgrade the deal from Rincon) from us to get one of them. The other went to the Nationals for a PTBNL.

Last offseason, anyone we tried to talk to demanded Garza+Baker+Slowey in any trade, for whichever of their players we wanted. Obviously, Smith didn't let that happen.

This year, the Rockies want Slowey+Span for Atkins. The Cubs wanted Slowey+Span for Derosa. The Mariners want Slowey+Span+Baker+prospects for Beltre. Everyone we talk to demands at least Slowey and Span for whatever one year rental they decide their willing to gift us.

Bill Smith wisely refuses all these "deals," saying "We'll give you less than that. You're not getting that much for what you're giving us." And the other teams let us walk away, knowing that if they want lesser prospects they can go elsewhere. And so they do -- they drop from a top notch starter straight down to a PTBNL elsewhere. They drop from Slowey+Span straight down to some non-prospect minor leaguers from our division rival.

That's not Smith's fault. And he shouldn't have had to try to "outbid" the Indians; people are somehow recommending that Smith erred by failing to offer Swarzak and Humber and Slama and Manship. The problem with that thinking is that each one of those guys is much more valuable than anyone the Indians gave up. The Twins should have been going even lower down, but the Cubs weren't willing to go there with the Twins. (And another thing for those who think the Indians gave up nothing -- one of their Low-A pitchers threw 100 strikeouts in 64 innings this year. That's pretty solid.)

Others accuse Smith of being unwilling to give up any of our starters to improve the team, and that this is a foolish mistake. They go further and claim that this trade indicates that the Cubs were willing to take a package consisting of nothing but minor leaguers, and therefore Smith failed to upgrade the 2009 team at the expense of future years. These fans fail to realize two things. First, the deal was not available to the Twins -- when the Cubs were talking to the Twins, they were willing to accept nothing less than a major league starter and a major league starter; they dropped their demands after ending discussions with the Twins and realizing that the market for Derosa is not, in fact, booming and that the Twins were not trying to rob them. Second, sacrificing a big part of the future by trading Swarzak/Slama/Manship is unwise -- these are the guys who will stock our rotation in 2011. A farm system stocked with pitching prospects is the holy grail of a baseball organization, and the Twins have it; it would be moronic at best to sacrifice that for a one year rental of an average player whose stats in his age 32 season were inflated by his home stadium.

I'm a fan for the long term. I'm excited to see Swarzak and Manship develop as players and get up to the majors in the next few years. Likewise, the Twins are planning for the long term. They know the current crop of starters may not remain healthy and effective indefinitely. They also know that if they DO remain healthy and effective, then we won't be able to afford them any more, which is why we need new starters coming in to replace them and keep up our competitiveness.

The league is full of franchises who thought it'd be a good idea to mortgage their future for a shot at glory this year. Almost all of them failed that year, and for years after that are derelict franchises with an empty farm system and dead weight on their overpaid roster and a losing record. Twins fans should be thrilled that we're not in that position, and that the front office is doing everything in their power to make sure we don't get there.

And if that means they don't buy high on aging players while selling low on promising young talent, then fine. If it means that wintertime is usually boring and we have to watch as other teams shuffle the deckchairs in an attempt to make their fans think they're doing something, then fine. We'll see you when pitchers and catchers report; we have the best of those.

So just relax. The Twins are doing what they should do -- not panic. As Twins fans, we should follow their lead. Don't panic.

The Sheer Brilliance of Torii Hunter

2008-12-29T00:00:00-08:00

In case anyone's been wondering what Torii Hunter has been up to lately, well, he's been talking. Not surprising at all.

"He said he really wanted to come back, but he needed the Angels to step up. I didn't know what he meant, because I thought eight years and $160 million was a pretty impressive offer." —Hunter, on what Mark Teixeira told him.

That's ... brilliant, Torii. Just brilliant. Perhaps someone will point out to Torii that three years and $45 million is also pretty impressive, and that he himself took the larger offer just a year ago.

If anyone's going to understand Teixeira's motivations in going to New York for a ludicrous amount of money, it ought to be Torii Hunter. In Torii's world, the Twins didn't "step up" to fulfill his contract demands, and he left for someplace offering bigger dollars deeper into an uncertain future. Teixeira did the same thing. Why does Torii have a problem with this?

Oh. One more thing. Teixeira only spent a couple of months in Los Angeles of Anaheim of California, or wherever the Angels play. Did anyone think that'd be enough time to develop enough connections to consider a "hometown discount" to stay with the free spending Angels? Especially Torii, for whom ten years wasn't long enough?

I miss Torii Hunter. I love it when he opens his mouth. Pure gold, really.

I also have the feeling that that's yet another area in which Gomez will eventually replace his production -- but as with hitting and baserunning, he's got quite a ways to go to match Torii. Keep working at it Carlos, you'll make it eventually.

(And can we also hope for Denard to be a dark horse in the "Replacing Torii" sweepstakes? He's largely been happy and congenial thus far, but so was Torii when he was younger. And Torii passed along the "play angry" wisdom to Denard, who took it to heart and apparently turned his career around. So it may be only a matter of time before Angry Denard hits the media and gives us some Torii-like craziness. I can't wait. We could have two Torii-mouths in our outfield soon!)

Teixeira and the Mighty Yankees!

2008-12-24T00:00:00-08:00

So Mark Teixeira went to the Yankees. When I got home and flipped on Sportscenter, I was treated to recordings from Boston radio stations with callers calling Tex "the worst mercenary ever," and other unfriendly names. This from the same fans who were drooling over him just hours earlier. I think it's stupid and unfair to call someone a "mercenary" for taking a better offer. It just doesn't make any sense. Also, he had no ties to Boston -- why do these callers think he owes them something? (And another thing -- why was ESPN playing clips from Boston radio shows, and why were all the analysts talking about what this means for the Red Sox, rather than what it means from the Yankees? Have the stopped pretending they're not just a Red Sox Fan show?)

Well, now that Tex will be wearing pinstripes, everyone is now convinced that they're the team to beat, not only in the AL East, but in the entire AL. I don't know how much one guy can add ... especially to an offense that was lackluster at best last season.

Prospective Yankees lineup (2008 OPS+):

Damon (118) Jeter (102) Teixeira (151) Rodriguez (150) Matsui (108) Posada (103) Nady (105) Swisher (92) Cano (86)

The order might be a little different, and is sure to change over the course of the season. They have quite a few good hitters on this team. Except ... take a look at those OPS+ numbers. Other than, obviously, the two best hitters in the AL in the heart of the order, nobody else on there is especially scary. I mean, it's impressive that they have seven average starters, and Swisher could certainly lift his hitting ability back to its normal levels, but Damon, Matsui, Jeter and Posada aren't getting any younger and will continue to decline.

Here's the Twins prospective lineup (2008 OPS+):

Span (125) Casilla (94) Mauer (137) Morneau (137) Young (102) Kubel (118) Buscher/Harris (100/97) Punto (99) Gomez (79)

We have more below average players, but we're very close to having fewer, given how close a few of our players are to 100. And considering the fact that Buscher and Harris could be used in a better platoon, both of them could turn in a better OPS, given the fact that they won't be facing same-handed pitching very often. And while the heart of our order isn't anywhere close to theirs, it's still pretty good. (A lot of lineups would like to have a pair of 137 OPS+es in their lineup, especially from guys who are also good defensively.) And it's a young team -- it's easily within the realm of possibility that we see improvements from Casilla, Young, and Gomez.

I don't see the addition of Teixeira making the Yankees offense suddenly an unstoppable juggernaut. It's barely better than the Twins' and the gap is smaller than the gap between Mauer/Morneau and Rodriguez/Teixeira. Throughout the rest of the lineup, the Twins are actually better offensively, better defensively, younger, and cheaper.

(And before anyone calls me crazy for comparing the super-juggernaut Yankees to the lowly "You're still in the league?" Twins, note that the Twins scored more runs than the Yankees last year. The mighty Yankees are trying to catch up to the little Twins. Weird.)

Good for the Yanks to pick up the best hitter on the market. Combined with the top two pitchers on the market, they pulled down the biggest haul in the history of free agency. Possibly in any sport.

It makes them better. But I don't think it justifies the combined anger and awe from BostonESPN. They're still just another team.

A Twins Carol

2008-12-23T00:00:00-08:00

Its pretty easy to make the Carl Pohlad-Ebeneezer Scrooge comparison, so I'm going not going to do it. Although I do think the Twins front office needs to be visited by three ghosts in order to jump start them out of this state of complacency they seem to be in. So, without further ado, FireGardy.com presents: A Twins Carol.

Bill Smith sits comfortably in his cozy metrodome office, basking in the glow of his most recent offseason move: the resigning of St. Nicholas Punto. A move sure to bring joy to all of the fans. As he dozes off, he is visited by the ghost of one of his old bosses: Andy MacPhail. MacPahil tells him he will be visited by three spirits who will guide him to make the correct decisions in running the Twins. Visibly shaken, Smith heads home to bed. But first leaves a memo to the scouting department to draft only pitchers in next June's draft.

The Ghost of Baseball Past: The first visitor is actually two, Doug Mientkiewicz and Corey Koskie. They bring Smith back to the fall of 2002, the Twins first playoff berth since their World Series run in 1991. They remind Smith how much fun it was to be a part of the team that brought so much joy to fans. However, they were not content with just being in the postseason. Riding mostly a group of no-name players they beat the A's and their vaunted Big Three in five games, only to fall to the eventual World Champs, the Angels. The Team was hungry, the former Twins remind Smith, he and Terry Ryan would need to build a winner out of this core group. The fans were hungry for more winning, and Ryan and Smith were in great position to feed them. 2002 was a happy time for the Twins and their fans, but one could see the dark and ominous clouds forming around the Metrodome. Smith asks what is in store for his beloved team, but he realizes he is back in his bed and Doug and Corey are nowhere to be seen.

The Ghost of Baseball Present: The next visitor is in the form of backup catcher Mike Redmond (thankfully wearing clothes). He brings smith to Las Vegas for the winter meetings, showing Bill for the first time what a GM sitting on his hands looks like. Mike summarizes the last few Twins baseball seasons for Bill, from a players point of view. He shows Bill that after that first playoff appearance or two, the Twins fell into a state of complacceny. Signed dreadful free agent, after dreadful free agent. Tiny Tony Batista was supposed to provide the much needed power threat the Twins have lacked since the mid 80's. He didn't last the season. Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, and Livan Hernandez, were supposed to provide a stabilizing veteran presence for young pitchers, none of them lasted a full season. Mike explains to Bill that all of this, and zero playoff wins since 2002 have caused Twins fans to be frustrated and embittered at the Twins inability to make moves. This comes to a head at the 2008 winter meetings, where Bill wanders around the Bellagio saying very little to the press, or to free agent infielders. He then calls a press conference to announce a huge signing that will solidify the left side of the infield for 2009. Nick Punto. As Mike and Bill watch on, even Smith realizes how stupid that is. He shouts at himself to no avail, as Mike explains to him "Nobody can hear you". Worried at how dangerous a position the Twins are in for 2009, Mike returns Bill back to his home in Minnesota, telling him to wait for the final spirit.

The Ghost of Baseball Yet to Come: The final visitor arrives in the form of Carlos Gomez. Unable to speak any English, Gomez uses rapid hand guesstures to signal Bill to follow him. They arrive just over a year in the future. April 2010, in the bleachers of the new Target Field. Bill hardly recognizes the team that takes the field for that opening day. Toby Hall is behind the plate, and a hobbled Paul Konerko is playing first base. "What happened to Mauer and Morneau?" Bill asks Gomez. Carlos points to the opposing dugout, Mauer and Morneau are sitting in there wearing White Sox uniforms. "Oh no! I must have traded my two best players to the White Sox. But why?" Again, Gomez points to the suite level, and there sits Carl Pohlad throwing money around, laughing muttering something about scamming the tax payers into buying him a new stadium. Smith screams in terror, fearful that he will be unable to assemble a winning team when the new stadium opens. Gomez points again to visiting owners box, and there sitting next to Kenny Williams and Jerry Reisndorf if Smith himself "Jesus Christ, I work for the White Sox now?!" Smith wakes up in his own bed in a cold sweat, vowing to build a team that will not just compete for the division, but a team that will compete for a World Series title for years to come. He immediately jumps out of bed and begins to work on contract extensions for Baker, Liriano, and Slowey. While devising a clever way to get rid of Michael Cuddyer. The End.

Editor's note: While I do not believe Carl Pohlad is required to spend all of his money on the team, I just thought it made for a more compelling story. Merry Christmas everyone.

Twins Christmas Wish List

2008-12-22T00:00:00-08:00

While it has become very clear that I have a different set of wishes (and possibly goals) for the Twins than they do for themselves, I am going to lay out a list anyway. While there really isn't much I reasonably believe the Twins will go after, I also plan on throwing in a few things I wish for them NOT to do.

Acquire one or two right-handed bullpen arms. If the price becomes too high, stick with what you have. Don't sign a third or fourth tier free agent just because. Give more innings to Breslow and Mijares, not scrap heap players who were slightly below league average in 2000.
Do not trade Kevin Slowey. I am pretty sure this has already come true, as it seems that Smith has turned down several trading partners who asked for Slowey. However, I would still like to stress it.
Use Punto off the Bench in a utility role. This is where is is most (or the only way in which he is) valuable.
Platoon Buscher/Harris correctly. If Buscher goes 4-4 with 2 homers or something against a righty, and a lefty is pitching the next day, do not start him because he is "hot". Do it right. Buscher against righties, harris against lefties. No questions about it.
Do not trade Delmon. His value is WAY down from a year ago. If we trade him now, there is no way we get anything close to Garza/Bartlett. I work in the financial industry, and buying high and selling low is not what you are supposed to do. Unless you hate money/winning.

That is about it. What else should the Twins do/not do? If Punto stays in a utility role like he should, who plays short? How many of my "wishes" will come true? My guess is none.

Joe Posnanski has a man crush

2008-12-19T00:00:00-08:00

Is it possible that Joe Posnanski is in love with Ron Gardenhire? He recently wrote a winter meetings recap and dedicateda paragraph to his lunch with Gardy. Now, I think Posnanski is a great baseball writer and I read almost everythingbaseball related he publishes. But this man is in love with Gardenhire. I can see how reporters like him, he seems to be very open and is good for sounds bites with his "aw shucks" manner. However, this piece kind of upset me. He said he thinks Gardy is the best manager in the game, but he then goes on to say if he watched all the games, saw how Gardy managed the bullpen, watched every single on of Nick Punto's at bats he might think differently. What now? So you like Gardy because he is nice, that's cool, I'm sure he is. But don't go and say he is the best manager in the game without much basis. I get your point that if the players like the manager, they tend to play harder. However, that isn't always enough. Gardy is a good manager, but the best in the league? What is that based on? Tony LaRussa arguably gets just as much, if not more, out of the same level on talent. In 2006, when he won the world series he had David f-ing Eckstein as his starting SS. He is worse than Nick Punto. Outside of Puljos, the Cards didn't have an overly talented bunch. So I'd say the "getting the most out of the least" argument doesn't really hold that much water.

Despite the name of this site, we think Gardy generally does a good job, but has serious room for improvement. Now Posnanski, a national columnist, is underminingeverything we are trying to do here. Damn. This is really more of a rant against Posnanski just saying things in a column without really backing it up. "Gardy is great, I don't really watch him on a regular basis, but he is great". Let the people who watch the Twins day in and day out do the talking, Joe. There are readers on this site who love Gardy and everything he stands for, and I respect that because they know A LOT about Twins baseball so they have more than no legs to stand on.

If he had to write this piece I wish he would have replaced "Ron Gardenhire" with "Twins baseball". The Twins have really played this way for a while, I guess if you want to put a face to it you can, but we all know that the throwing strikes, and emphasis on defense is somethingthe organization stresses from draft day on. Not something Gardy institutes when players arrive in his clubhouse. He reinforces it, yes. And since the Twins don't really keep any of the worthless free agents they sign, that's not an issue.

So, in summation, I would like to state that Ron Gardenhire is getting WAY too much credit for how this franchise has fared. During all those crappy years under Tom Kelly we were stockpiling draft picks to get the players we have today. Maybe this is a sport-wide issue. Managers get way too much credit for the success of their organization. Its different than college football, where the head coach is in charge of recruiting players, developing players, and coaching the game. So from now on, if we want to praise the Twins, we really should remember everyone who contributes. Gardy is really a figurehead. Stan Cliburn (and his brother, I think its Stu or some other weird alliteration) are probably the best managers in the system.

Another thing I don't like about Gardy, is he is loyal to a fault. I'm all for supporting your guys, and I like that he won't sign an extension until his staff is signed. However, someone needs to take Ullgerbehind the woodshed and just end it. He is bad at everything, and the fact that he is the manager if Gardy is ejected or has to leave the team or whatever is just downright terrible. Terrible.

Well, that is my Friday morning rant. Have a good weekend everyone.

Ty-onara

2008-12-18T00:00:00-08:00

Well, that didn't take long. All sources indicate that the Twins are not going to pursue Ty Wigginton. Apparently his price tag was higher than Blake's. He is 4 years younger, so he should make more than Blake. That's basically what he is, a younger version of Casey Blake. This leaves the Twins with few to no options to upgrade the infield. I think we should accept that, and move on. The only other option is Mark Derosa of the Cubs. Nick and Nick weighs that option in his blog today, so I won't delve in too deeply. He has a few main points, I'll summarize:

DeRosa only became a full time player 3 years ago, so despite being 34 he still "has a lot left in the tank"
While primarily playing 2B, he also has logged a considerable amount of innings at third, playing slightly below average defense at both. This means we could try him at third, or play him at second and move Casilla to short and go with the Buscher/Harris platoon at third, moving Punto to super-utility.
Had a career year last season, so will probably regress.
Twins will undervalue him since he doesn't play great defense, or isn't really fast, and will offer the Cubs a garbage package, and the Cubs will laugh at us and tell us to go home.
"The Fab 5" are off limits, but someone of the Bonser/Humber variety is not.

OK, I guess that was more than just a summary. He makes some valid points, but I don't think the Twins will be able to swing anything. I doubt they are comfortable enough with his defense at third (and Gardy would rather sacrafice his first born than take Punto out of the everyday lineup, so the infield shift suggested above is out of the question) to make the move. Oh well. He was a short term solution, who had one year remaining on his contract. I say we focus our attention and money on the bullpen.

Joe Nelson was recently non-tendered by the Marlins. He also appears to be the prettiest girl at the dance. In 2008, Nelson was 3-1 with a 2.00 ERA in 54 innings. He had 60 strikeouts to 22 walks, and gave up just 5 homers. He also sported a healthy 1.18 WHIP. While he is 34 years old, he doesn't have too many innings at the major league level, and has about 700 total professional innings under is belt. That really isn't that many, and as far as I know he has no history of arm trouble. Could 2008 be a fluke? Yes, it very well could be. The fact that he has 19 teams chasing him does not bode well for the Twins. Unless he prefers pitching for Rick Anderson and an organization that value pitching above all else, over pitching for the highest bidder. Which I doubt. Especially since he is 34 and hasn't had a big payday yet.

Brandon Lyonis another option. In 2008 he pitched 59 innings, with 44 strikeouts to 13 walks and 7 homers. Very similar to Nelson. He was the D-backs closer for the first half, racking up 26 saves before losing the job. My concern with Lyon is he might take a job where he can be a closer. Nelson might be in the same boat. Both have closer-ish numbers, and might take more money and go to a bad team so they can be the ace of the bullpen.

The Twins should be courting both of these guys heavily. I would prefer not to go into the season assuming Bonser or Humber will be effective setup men. I think Bonser canbe, but when it comes to Boof, assume nothing. If they decide to go after a free agent relief pitcher, they might have to trade one of Bonser/Humber since both are out of options. Lets lay out who I think will be on the opening day 25 man roster so we can figure out how many roster spots we have:

C- Mauer, Redmond (2)
IF- Morneau, Casilla, Punto, Buscher, Harris, Tolbert (?) (6)
OF- Span, Gomez, Cuddyer, Young, Kubel (5)
SP- Baker, Liriano, Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins (5)
RP- Nathan, Guerrier, Crain, Bonser, Humber, Mijares, Breslow (7)

That is a full roster, so I imagine someone has to go. I could see Breslow starting the year in the minors and the Twins bringing in some new blood to fill his spot. Or if they are able to unload Bonser or Humber, we can open up a spot that way. This is nearly the exact same 25 man roster we ended the season with. I don't like change for the sake of change, but I think this team clearly had holes last year and assuming Gomez is going to get leaps and bounds better is not a good way to fill a hole. What do you guys think on possible roster configurations? Lets not get into who is starting and where, but just which 25 guys will head north in April.

Midweek Roundup

2008-12-17T00:00:00-08:00

After using a lot of words in this space to speculate who the Twins will acquire in their efforts to upgrade (whenever I use that word I get that stupid Beyonce DirecTV commercial stuck in my head, damn you television!) the left side of the infield; I've decided to address some other noteworthy items from around baseball.

According to ESPN Rafael Furcal is not a Brave after all. The rumors have been all over the place with this guy. A few weeks back he was reportedly shopping for houses in the bay area, then we heard The Royals offered him the most money. So let me get this straight, at one point the two front runners for the top FA shortsopt were the A's and the Royals!? Am I taking crazy pills or what? Then Atlanta swoops in and as of late Monday/early Tuesday he was a Brave....again. Now as of the time I am writing this, he isn't officially a Brave, but now the Dodgers have stepped in. This is pretty crazy. Edn result: Braves

In other LA related news, Manny isn't getting the 4 year offers from every pro team on the planet as Scott Boras claimed. I'm pretty sure he expected 52 contract offers of 4 years, 90 million or some nonsense for his enigmatic client. Newsflash, Scotty, ain't gonna happen. One way or another, your guy is going to end up in LA. Or technically Anaheim, I guess. Your two usual fall-back teams, (that you can trick into signing your client when the LA/NY/Boston's of the world don't want him) Detroit and Texas, aren't biting. We all know Manny isn't headed back to beantown, and while I've heard a few members of the Yankee front office are interested, I don't see him going there. As for the Mets, their owner just lost a ton of money in the Madoff scheme, plus they aren't looking for more outfielders. That leaves LA. If the Angels lose out on Tex, they will come knocking. So really, the Dodgers are the only team that appears to be making Manny a priority. This gives the team the upper hand. Everyone knows what they are getting in Manny, he is a lose cannon who can hit the crap out of the ball. But also drag your team down over the course of 162+ games. Manny even went as far as to threaten retirement if he didn't get more attention on the free agent market. He is a child. Throws a tantrum when the gorwn-ups are "ignoring" him. Good move Manny, I'm sure everyone wants you as a teammate now. Here is my offer, the Twins will offer you the exact same contract they offered Casey Blake. That is all I'm willing to offer you. If only to metaphorically slap you and Boras in the face. Didn't Boras call the Dodgers first offer "insulting" or something of the sort. Next up: Boras instructs Manny to hold his breath until he gets the offer he feels he deserves. End result: Dodgers.

Even thouh he is a Scott Boras client, the Mark Teixeria saga has been shockingly normal. Does Boras tailor his negotiation strategy to fit the personality of his clients? Perhaps. I really hope Tex goes to the O's or Nats. Hometown team. I have a few friends who live in the DC area, and they are excited about being able to go the Nationals Park and see an actual player on the home team. Not a bunch of suckers.

The AJ Burnett signing seems to be a bad one for the Yankees. While he could be good next year, and maybe the year after. You are probably looking at 2.5-3 years of badness at an average of 16.5 a year. That is unfortunate. If the Yankees still feel the need to add more pitching, they might go after one of Ben Sheets/ Derek Lowe. Which makes their entire rotation a house of cards.

Finally, does anyone think Barry Bonds will have a job this year? I do not. At least not with a MLB team. Maybe he can get a job at Dennys or something, but in this job market, I wouldn't count on it Barry.

Ty Wigginton

2008-12-16T00:00:00-08:00

As everyone knows, the Astros non-tendered third baseman Ty WIgginton at Friday's deadline. LEN3 wrote a piece about it over the weekend. Despite his name being similar to Ty Willingham, I think the Twins should go after him. He has the ability to hit for power, and play a competent third base. Last year at age 30, he had an OPS+ of 128, that is very good. His hitting line was .285/.350/.526, also excellent. Apparently the Twins have been a fan of Wigginton since his days in Tampa, but have never been able to swing a deal to get him. In 2008 he played 82 of the 111 games he played at third, with the rest coming in the OF. For his career he has played in 747 games, 527 of them coming at third. His career fielding percentage (not the greatest stat, I know, but bear with me) at third is .956, while not great it won't be a downgrade from any of our other 3B options.

To summarize, he is a right handed, third baseman, with power. What's not to like? Well, probably the price tag. Odds are he will get Casey Blake type money (how pathetic is that statement out of context?), something the Twins have shown they are not willing to do. If we can somehow convince Wigginton to come to Minnesota on a 2 year, 14-15 mil deal, I'd say we do it. The only thing we lose is money, which sucks, but we don't have to give up draft picks or prospects, which are more valuable to the Twins than money. As of right now, I'd say he is our best outside option at third. The cost for Beltre, Atkins, etc. will be way too high. While Buscher and Harris would make for a fine platoon, I can see Gardy botching the platoon and going with the "hot hand" which you aren't supposed to do in a true platoon. Brian Buscher should not be allowed to hit against lefties, its as simple as that. I have a feeling lots of teams are interested in Wigginton, which is why the Twins should be going after him early and often. Thoughts?

Update: Word is Furcal has signed with the Braves. So what do they do with the fine, young shortstop they already have? Move one of Furcal/Escobar to second? Or trade Escobar to the Twins for pennies on the dollar? I would take him in a trade for pitcher. A pitcher not named Slowey. With the braves losing Smoltz, and losing out on the Peavy sweepstakes, they might need an established Major League starter, would anyone be opposed to throwing them one of Blackburn/Perkins for Yunel Escobar? I know Gardy has named Punto our SS, but this team should take any left side infield upgrade it can get. For the record I have heard no rumors saying that a)the Brave are looking to move Escobar, or b) the Twins have asked about him. Its all speculation, which is all we can do during hot stove season.

2009, a lot like....2008?

2008-12-12T00:00:00-08:00

So the winter meetings are over, and the Twins pretty much did nothing. Except talk about trading one of our youngest, most talented hitters. Not cool, Bill. So here is how I would like to see the lineup for 2009:

Span, RF
Casilla, 2B
Mauer, C
Morneau, 1B
Young, LF
Kubel, DH
Buscher/Harris, 3B
Punto, SS (until he gets hurt by memorial day and is replaced)
Gomez, CF

That is basically the same lineup as last season, which is fine. Notice I left out Cuddyer. He really hasn't done much to deserve a starting spot. He can compete for an outfield spot, and take some DH at bats against really tough lefties. I'm still convinced Delmon Young can put it together. I might flip him with Kubel. I'm not 100% sold on RLRL...., but sometimes its necessary, with the specialization and bullpens and whatnot. Obviously things can trade if we decide to trade away our extra outfielder (since depth is a bad thing, apparently) or move somebody for a thirdbaseman, which I don't think is neccessary. The Buscher/Harris platoon really started clicking towards the end of the season.

On another note, I don't think we should forgive Gardy just because he retracted his "delmon young isn't going to start next year" statement. I'm pretty sure Bill Smith made him issue that retraction. So it doesn't count. Managers should never be forgiven for forgetting the players on their team. But that is in the (recent) past, so lets move on.

Anyone else have any thoughts on lineup projections? Do you think Gardy will rotate four outfielders, or pick three and have one come off the bench? Will Span regress to the point where he is either no longer in the majors or isn't good enough to be a starter and will fill the "Lew Ford roving outfielder" role? Is it baseball season yet?

Much ado about pitching, and other Thursday morning musings

2008-12-11T00:00:00-08:00

Well, CC Sabbathia and K-Rod (quite possibly the worst nickname ever) are off the books. Both are headed to NYC for mega-bucks. The Mets also swung a three team trade last night to get JJ Putz, another closer, to bolster their bullpen. It looks as though Minaya is trying to go from worst bullpen in the league to best by throwing money (and prospects) at the problem. We'll see if it works. Rodriguez has to be close to breaking down, at the very least he is due for a DL stint. Maybe that is why the traded for Putz, insurance. He is only one year removed from an all-star appearance and 40 saves. Not a bad setup man to have.

Now that I have gone one paragraph without mentioning the Twins for the first time in my life, lets talk about the hometown team. It seems as though every potential trade partner wants Kevin Slowey, and understandably so. My question is, aren't we just one year removed from Nick Blackburn being named the number one prospect in one of the most pitching rich farm systems in the AL? He put together a decent, at worst, major league season and now people are sour on him? I know that Slowey is better, but what is wrong with Blackburn? He is older, so maybe GMs think he has peaked and there is no potential left? I guess that is fair. I suppose I'm just frustrated that in order to get a potentially decent (or just as likely bad) position player (Kouzmanoff, Atkins, Beltre) you need to give up a potentially great (or at worst league average) starting pitcher. League average starting pitching might be one of the most valuable commodities in the game. Look at how much guys like Silva, Lohse, and Jeff Suppan make. I get that prospects are worth more than money, but these players we are talking about aren't prospects. If a league average pitcher is worth 12mil/year (Silva), hey Padres, why not trade for a 12mil/year pitcher who actually costs you close to league minimum and you give us Kevin Kouzmanoff, who you won't be able to afford in a few years because your owner got divorced and is broke. Obviously, I'm biased.

Has anyone else noticed that if a random team like the Nationals wanted to get a player similar to Kouzmanoff, they would have to give up next to nothing (literally, probably a PTBNL), while the Twins have to give up a Major League starter. It happened with Delmon Young, the Nats got Dukes for literally nothing, while we gave up Matt Garza plus our starting SS. Is this all the GMs taking advantage of us now that the big, bad bully Terry Ryan is gone? Or is Bill Smith just a bad GM?

This next issue touches on some of what we covered yesterday, sort of. Does anyone else think it might be time to infuse some new blood into the front office. Everyone up there has been with the Twins since the start of their career and they seem to have adopted a group think mentality. They don't know how to run a baseball team any differently than "stay away from power hitters" and all the other organizational philosophies that we have discussed. I'm not saying "fire Bill Smith, and hire some hall of fame GM from a different organization" but maybe lets add some new (possibly stat oriented guys to mix things up) people at the assistant GM level. Its basic principles of management that group think can be very dangerous for an organization. Lets mix things up, why get complacent? Why not find new, creative ways to improve on our already semi-successful formula. A move like this is by no means drastic, nor will it change things really quickly, but I think its best for an organization that is in need of some change.

So, Gardy is just....dumb?

2008-12-10T00:00:00-08:00

From Phil Miller's Pioneer Press blog:

He backpedaled on his statement last week that Michael Cuddyer, Carlos Gomez and Denard Span will form his starting outfield, basically saying he didn’t realize how that would be portrayed as snubbing Delmon Young. Gardenhire sung the praises of the 23-year-old outfielder and insisted there will be plenty of work for all four of them. He admitted he didn’t make general manager Bill Smith too happy with that.

Um, how did he not realize this? By saying "these three guys are my starters" means that anyone not included in that statement is NOT a starter. How did he not see that he was calling Delmon Young either a)expendable, or b) a bench player? Maybe he was excited being at the Fargo livestock convention or whatever the hell worthless winter caravan deal he was at. I would hope Smith was upset with those statements. Just by saying those things, he basically decreased perceived trade value. If everyone else in baseball knows we are "desperate" to trade him, they will sit back and wait for us to accept their offer, instead of continually increasing their offer to outbid everyone else. Damn you, Ron!

I know most of this is old news, but I was traveling the past few days and haven't really had a chance to address the topics that arose over the weekend, aside from a few comments on other posts.

In other news, I read somewhere, probably on one of the local paper's blogs, that it will take somewhere in the neighborhood of 4MM per year to keep Punto. That is absurd. In another display of Gardy not wanting to consult anyone before making lineup decisions in December, he said if Punto returns he is the starting shortstop. I believe this time last year Punto was christened the 2008 starting second baseman, until he hurt himself doing "Punto things". So now he is christened the starting shortstop of December, next year it will be third base, moving one step closer to the dugout. Maybe this is how Gardy benches his favorite players. Just moves them around the diamond until they reach the dugout. Instead of, you know, just telling them to sit their ass down.

General winter meetings thoughts:

After reviewing all of the left side infield rumors, I have decided the Twins should stand pat. The "available" thirdbasemen (Beltre, Atkins, Kouzmanoff, etc) are all priced WAY too high. Kouzmanoff intrigues me the most because he is in a bizarro-Atkins situation. His numbers are pretty decent when you get him away from Petco. However is defense is bad (at best) and we'd have to give up too much to get him. If the Padres were desperate to dump him for some reason, then we'd talk. That isn't the case with young, cheap, marginally talented players. Beltre is the only player linked to us who I consider more than a lateral move from a Buscher/Harris platoon. His price tag will probably be the highest of them all, too.

Anyway, if anyone else has any thoughts as to what the Twins should do/will do, please post them.

Nick Punto Tries to Please Gardy

2008-12-09T00:00:00-08:00

LaVelle is really going crazy with winter meetings updates. Awesome. Although, it's a pretty slow work day today for some reason; I could do with some more updates.

But I'll have to make do with what I've got for now. And in one of LaVelle's recent updates, he mentioned a couple of interesting things.

There is one report that Nick Punto met with the Phillies yesterday. If that’s true, Punto could indirectly help the Twins because he could be insurance for Chase Utley and Pedro Feliz, who are coming back from surgeries. That might help the Twins’ efforts to pry Jason Donald away. Just my theory. Was told that Phillies manager Charlie Manuel is very fond of Punto.

Very interesting. We couldn't make progress in Jason Donald talks because the Phillies wanted insurance for their middle infield ... and the much-maligned utility infielder could come in on some sort of shining white horse and save the day? Hilarious!

Well, that's one way to look at it. The other way is this one:

We'd been trying unsuccessfully to trade a 22 year old who hit .290/.336/.405 in the American League for a 23 year old who hit .307/.391/.497 at AA. Both players are sub-par defensively, though the elder minor leaguer fails at a more valuable defensive position. The trade talks had stalled because the Phillies over-value their possession while realizing that the Twins greatly under-value theirs ... which means the Phillies think they can drive down the price to acquire a needed replacement bat in LF that'll be around for years and probably dominate in that lineup and ballpark. They make up an excuse about middle infield depth to make it seem like they're not just trying to drive down the price for Delmon. Then Nick F'ing Punto comes along and says "Hey, you know what? I'll do my best friend Ron Gardenhire a favor and help him get rid of Delmon Young! I know how much Gardy hates that talented jerk (who wouldn't hate someone with talent, after all?), so this will really help the team by making Gardy happy!" At least I presume that's what he said right before walking in the door to his meeting with the Phillies.

Oh, and for those who think Donald's AA numbers look good, consider this: When Delmon Young was at AA, he was just 19 years old (which is a lot younger than 23 for that level) and hit .336/.386/.582 (which is, obviously, a whole lot better than .307/.391/.497). Seriously, are we just trying to do something stupid?

From the same notebook:

There are a lot of people here who think Twins’ first-round pick Aaron Hicks is an uber prospect. Some still think highly of him as a pitcher - he did hit 97 on the gun as a senior in high school. The Twins drafted him as an outfielder.

I've been pretty pleased with Hicks so far, and it's cool to hear that he's highly regarded around the league. He's only 18 and hasn't even gotten to A ball yet, so he's years away. I suppose this means we won't be able to make any trades at all, since everyone will just demand Hicks and Slowey for every castaway over-the-hill dead-weight loser on their roster.

Also, does anyone else feel like the Twins' outfield situation in 2011 will be a lot more ridiculous than it is now, given that Revere and Hicks (and maybe the rest) will be blooming just as Gomez and Span hit arbitration, and Young is (hopefully) still around?

Walking Away From Casey Blake

2008-12-06T00:00:00-08:00

Great news!

As you're no doubt aware, the Twins have been in talks with Casey Blake to sign the elderly third baseman to a multi-year deal, one that would make him the new largest free agent signing in franchise history. The Twins wanted to go two years with an option; Blake wanted three years guaranteed. This was, apparently, the only point of difference, and the Twins have now broken off the talks.

Blake would have been an expensive non-upgrade, and guaranteeing him a third year would have been foolhardy. It's good to see the Twins sticking to their guns here, and not caving to the demands of Blake's agent. Too often, teams look at their list of needs and allow themselves to be held hostage by agents who think they set the prices -- the teams set the prices.

Also, I'm really annoyed by players who want more guaranteed years, and won't even take an option year with a buyout clause. If Blake were actually planning to be playing well in three years, then the option doesn't matter at all; either the Twins take it and he gets the money, or they give him his buyout and he signs somewhere else and makes more money. Demanding the guarantees on the backend of the contract means the player doesn't expect to be worth another contract by then -- they're basically telling you they're trying to swindle you. Don't do it.

I think the Twins have the right philosophy when it comes to these free agents. Torii Hunter knew he wouldn't be worth the money in the fourth and fifth years of that contract, which is why he wouldn't negotiate with the Twins, who also knew that. Casey Blake knows it too, which is why the Twins are walking away.

La Velle goes over most of the rest of our options for the left side of the infield; the list of options is shrinking as teams make deals and shortstops find their new homes. The price in trade for guys like Beltre, Atkins, and Hardy are sure to rise from their already inflated levels. I can't see the Twins parting with Slowey and Span for anyone, especially not one of those guys. It seems to me that it's increasingly likely that the Twins don't make any moves this offseason. At least not significant moves.

And an update on Delmon?

Delmon Young as part of a package? There have been rumblings that the Twins have shopped him around, but I was told yesterday and this morning that’s not true. Yes, the Twins have fielded calls about Young. But they aren’t giving him away. They like the possibility of having great outfield depth next season. And, I was told, they haven’t forgotten what happened when they gave up on David Ortiz.

You mean the Twins are actually capable of learning a lesson from the mistakes they made in the past? I've been drawing the connection between DOrtiz and Kubel for a while; it's just as applicable with Delmon. It's great to hear that the Twins plan to give Delmon more time, and that they appreciate the value of outfield depth. I'm well aware that these "rumblings" aren't coming from Gardy, but from the front office.

I guess I'm just glad Gardy doesn't have any say.

Delmon Shows Maturity

2008-12-05T00:00:00-08:00

Unsurprisingly, Delmon Young found out about Gardy's disparaging comments. Somewhat surprisingly, he took them well.

"It's not in my hands," he said from Santa Barbara, Calif. "If I come back, I come back. If I don't, I don't. I've enjoyed my time up there, but it's a business, too."

Of course, everyone is aware that Delmon considers baseball a business -- he famously planned to "do [his] six and bolt," back when he was with the (Devil) Rays. But it doesn't sound like that's Plan A any more.

"It doesn't bother me at all," Young said. "It's his decision. He writes the lineup. We just go out and play when we get the opportunity."

At this point, I think it's safe to wonder how a 23 year old renowned for immaturity can demonstrate so much more maturity than Gardy.

Asked how much better shape he's in now than September, he said, "way better," adding, "I've got things to fix with baseball and with my body."

The words just keep getting better -- again, we're all rooting for Delmon to fix everything, both with baseball and with his body. And I, personally, am glad he's taking the initiative to do it. I think there are plenty of guys around the league who are content to coast on athletic ability, and Delmon doesn't seem to be one of them.

Last year, we were all excited about Delmon coming into a new environment, saying all the right things. On one level, the words played out -- he didn't have any of the personal or clubhouse problems that everyone feared; in fact, he's been close to a model citizen. (I say "close" because Mauer sets a pretty high bar for model behavior that even Morneau doesn't match.) On the other hand, he also didn't bring the high level of performance that we were hoping for.

Last time, the words were about fitting in and starting anew; he did. This time around, the words are about getting in shape and improving as a baseball player; let's see what happens. I'm inclined to trust Delmon.

More Delmon-Hating From Gardy

2008-12-04T00:00:00-08:00

Well, Gardy's kicked it up a notch in his Delmon-hating game. According to Sinker, Gardy wants a starting outfield in 2009 of Gomez, Span, and Cuddyer. That leaves Delmon on the outs, obviously.

Aside from the obvious problem of actively dangling him on the trade market, having the manager basically come out and say that he's useless to us cannot help his trade value. And having him in a DH platoon with Kubel is terrible for many reasons -- the top two of which are that they both need 500+ AB. #3 is that Delmon is 23 years old, and it seems a little early to relegate him to a bench role given his obvious talents.

“Those three guys need to play every day. Delmon is in the mix. He’s a hell of a player, a hell of a talent. But to me, those three guys should be your outfield and then you go from there.”

What a twit. How can you say, with a straight face, that you think Delmon is a hell of a player, and immediately follow it up by saying he has absolutely no chance to play? Let me fix that for you:

"Delmon is in the mix. He's a hell of a player, a hell of a talent. But to me, he should be in your outfield, and then you go from there."

There. Isn't that better?

Furthermore, I simply don't understand Gardy's apparent refusal to accept depth in the outfield. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: it's a damn good thing we had four good outfielders last year, given that they kept getting injured (especially the oldest and least talented of the group, a certain Michael Cuddyer). If we decide not to learn from our immediate history, we could run into the exact same problem and see a bunch of Pridie and Kubel (and Punto?) stumbling around in the outfield, and I don't think anybody wants to see that.

Also, I just saw word from LEN3 that Delmon's been hitting the weight room since the season ended, and that he's lost weight. It seems to me that nobody expected Delmon to lose any weight -- all the jokes have been about the size of brother Dmitri. But this leaves open the possibility that Delmon will get both faster and stronger, in addition to more experienced and skilled at the plate. How come everyone's willing to wait for Mauer to develop into his power, but are willing to give up on Delmon's, despite the fact that Delmon already has more power, has the build of a big time power hitter, and is three years his junior?

Damn it, you Twins. Drop this talk about Blake and his elderly, overpriced ass. We're not running the Social Security program, we're running a baseball team. We don't need to sign a 35 year old mediocre player to a multi-year deal. We also don't need to sign the biggest free agent contract in franchise history for a second consecutive year at the same position, this time targeting a guy who is even older. If you feel like you have too many outfielders, then move Cuddyer to third base to lessen the logjam. And then be happy when Gomez tweaks his groin prancing around in center like a deer, or Span hurts his shoulder diving over the fence after a ball, or Delmon strains his oblique chasing after a slider six feet off the plate; "happy" because we have another real outfielder to use, rather than having traded one of them away for pennies on the dollar just so Gardy doesn't have to make tough decisions like "which one of these good players should play today?" and can instead make tough decisions like "which one of these bad players do I have to start today?"

(Oh, and in other interesting news, Adam Dunn has apparently also been hitting the weight room, and has lost 15 pounds. He's also projected to make less than $10M per year on the free agent market, due to the economy. He also wasn't offered arbitration, so there are no draft picks involved. I know I want Kubel to play, but a .380 OBP and 40 HR from the DH spot, with the "ability" to fill in occasionally at LF and 1B are calling out to me. Also, Mauer-Morneau-Dunn is a pretty fearsome 2-3-4 or 3-4-5 in any lineup. Also, Dunn hasn't been linked to the Twins in any rumor, and left handed hitters aren't exactly our need, and we already have a left handed LF/DH. But I don't see why we shouldn't consider Dunn if the price is right.)

Reyes Arbitration Offer

2008-12-01T00:00:00-08:00

According to Joe C, the Twins have offered arbitration to Dennys Reyes, who qualified as a Type B free agent. (We have to offer him arbitration to get the supplemental draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere.)

This was the necessary first step to getting that valuable pick, and now we just have to hope Reyes doesn't accept our offer.

I've heard Reyes is interested in a multi-year deal, so he might be inclined to decline the arbitration and leave as a free agent -- this is the Twins' dream scenario. (At least it should be.) Because if he accepts the offer, he'll be "worth" over $2M in 2009, according to the arbitrators, and he's certainly not worth that to us given that we have Mijares and Breslow available as lefties out of the pen.

Also, the Type A/B rankings are based on the player's previous two seasons -- given another year, Reyes might not qualify as even a Type B. On the other hand, he might have a great 2009 and become a Type A.

Honestly, I would not bet $2M on Reyes having a great 2009. The runs he gives up might start counting against his ERA, instead of everyone else's. I hope he gets a nice three year deal from some misguided franchise, and gets safely away from the Twins. Maybe to Detroit, where he can serve up some meatballs and wild pitches to Mauer and Morneau 19 times next year.

A Horrible Day: Viciedo Goes to the South Side

2008-11-21T00:00:00-08:00

I don't like this at all.

A few days ago, we were talking about the young Cuban third baseman, Dayan Viciedo. Huge power bat. 19 years old. Apparently available for a cheap contract.

We wanted him. At the time, the numbers sounded like they'd be in the $10M for 4 years range, which is more than affordable, and considerably less than we'll probably end up giving to Casey Blake for Christmas. (Because for some reason we have to reward guys who used to be in our system, even if it doesn't help out our team.)

Well, now he's gone. For $11M for 4 years. And worse ... he went to the White Sox. Their problems at third base weren't nearly as bad as ours ("How do we replace Joe Crede's ineffectiveness?" "Can Josh Fields' power at the plate overcome his weakness in the field?" as opposed to "Are we still a major league team without a left side of an infield?"), and now they've made a huge upgrade.

In 2008, they had The Cuban Missile, Alexei Ramirez. I like that guy, and he did really well for the White Sox. Well, take him, replace his prodigious speed with prodigious power, and now the White Sox have another infielder who's going to contend for rookie of the year. Again.

Letting Viciedo go to another team for such a low price is a mistake I can forgive. (Unless we end up signing Blake or Crede or Branyan for three times as much.) But letting Viciedo go to the hated White Sox is a colossal mistake that we're going to realize in the 80 ABs he's going to get against us this year, of which I'm assuming 10-25 will be home runs.

This is a horrible day.

A Third Base Target and "Expected" Twins Moves

2008-11-17T00:00:00-08:00

Lost in all the excitement about having made an offer to Casey Blake, and the pipe dream of stealing JJ Hardy from the Brewers, is the fact that there's another option at third base staring us in the face.

Russell Branyan played third (kind of) for the Brewers last season until an oblique injury ended his season, but while he was on the field he was able to hit. And by "hit," I mean .250/.342/.583 ... for a 138 OPS+. That's pretty good hitting. He had 12 HR in just 132 AB (in 50 games).

Sure, he's left handed. Sure, he's 32. Sure, he can't play defense. Sure, he was hurt last year and we don't actually know what we'd get from him. But realistically, these are all things that should make him one other important thing: cheap. Other teams may be shying away from him for these reasons -- and the fact that we very well may be able to snag him on a one or two year deal should mean we should be sniffing around for that deal.

Bear in mind that this isn't even a rumor. I didn't hear this anywhere. But it would sure be nice if this is the kind of thing the Twins were considering. I have the feeling Branyan would be a better investment than Mike Lamb, at the very least.

Oh, and another thing. Baseball Prospectus went through the AL Central to see what each team should do in the offseason, and they have a few ideas about the Twins.

We're not scoring 829 runs again -- we only earned 764 "equivalent runs," which I believe are calculated by weighting home runs highly because runs count for more if the ball travels over the fence. That's why the White Sox scored more runs than the Twins, right? Right?
Brendan Harris improved greatly and was better than we thought -- but we should replace him anyway.
Bill Smith has demonstrated that he doesn't make big deals in the offseason, so he'll spend more time playing craps than talking to other GMs this offseason. I don't know what about his track record indicates that he doesn't make deals, but thus far in his tenure he's made two blockbuster deals per offseason. And earned the nickname "Wild Bill" from the only source that matters. (Us.)
We're an 80-85 win team, not an 85-90 win team, and that we shouldn't make any moves to improve.
It would be wise to package Jason Kubel and one of our established starts for a corner outfielder. (Really? The team that wants to unload a corner outfielder should instead acquire one by getting rid of the one guy on the team who needs more playing time? I ... disagree.)

Usually Baseball Prospectus is pretty good about analysis, but this reads like it was written by a White Sox fan. Really Nate Silver? I think you've spent too much time on the South Side. I don't know what the Twins will do this offseason, but I don't think they'd be wise to heed your advice.

And we'd better not trade Jason Kubel. The only move we should make with Kubel is to write his name in at DH in permanent ink and then lock Gardy in his office where he can't change the lineup.

Silver Sluggers

2008-11-14T00:00:00-08:00

So the Silver Slugger awards were announced this week, and a few more trophies are headed to Minnesota to further clutter the shelves in the Mauer and Morneau residences.

The M&M Boys each won the award for the second time (the first was in 2006), and it indicates that they were the best hitters at their position in the American League. Mauer's really no surprise, he's obviously the best hitting catcher in the AL right now; Morneau, however, is in the thick of a really tough crowd at first base, and should be both proud and grateful for coming out ahead of Kevin Youkilis, Miguel Cabrera, Mark Texeira, and the rest of the 1B/DH crowd (ie, all the players on the White Sox, Tigers, and Yankees).

I have two questions on this. Given that Morneau has been voted to be a better hitter than Youkilis, and that the gap in their defense is small at best, is it at all possible that Youkilis finishes ahead of Morneau in the MVP voting? (My guess is "yes," because Boston has more sportswriters than anywhere else for some reason. Oh yeah. ESPN.)

My second question: What does Morneau have to do to get some respect? Seriously. ESPN remembers that Mauer won before, but not Morneau? They list this as his first career Silver Slugger, when it's obviously not. Here's the list of historical winners; scroll all the way down to 2006 (about 3 inches) and note that Justin Morneau did indeed win. Is this lack of respect from ESPN related to the upcoming Youkilis/Pedroia-loving that's sure to come from the MVP voters? (My guess is "yes," for the reasons given in the above parentheses.)

So congratulations to Mauer, and congratulations to Morneau. You guys are good: keep up the good work.

Oh, and what are the opposite of congratulations? Rebuke-ulations? Good enough.

Rebuke-ulations to you, ESPN, for slighting Morneau yet again. Jerks.

Happy Gardy Day!

2008-11-13T00:00:00-08:00

Today's an eventful day for Ron Gardenhire.

He finished second in the voting for AL Manager of the Year, behind Joe Maddon. Gardy probably deserved to be second place just about as much as Maddon deserved to be first; ie, completely. I can't think of any problems with it. Except ... Maddon got 27 of 28 first place votes, and Gardy got 1. What's the big deal, you say?

There has never been a unanimous winner for Manager of the Year. (ESPN)

Oh. Oh boy. Is it possible that the newly minted Ray Nation will inexplicably get angry about this? Yes they can. The single vote came from a sportswriter in Cleveland, who was then accosted by TampaBay.com, and essentially reneged his vote:

"The voting is done in the final week of the season, so I did not have the playoffs to consider," Pluto said. "If they did the voting after, certainly Joe would have got it."

I think that's exactly why they do the voting before the playoffs -- because it's Manager of the Year, not Manager of October. But I have no gripes. He can say he'd like to take his vote back all he wants to. It seems that's a rare opinion though, as Pluto is suffering plenty of hate mail.

Pluto said he's trying to respond to every email he's received, which have included a one-word, "Idiot," and even some from fans in Cleveland who love his work but were wowed by his vote "One guy wrote, 'I usually like your stuff, but what were you thinking? You're making me embarrassed to be from Cleveland."

Seriously? This is what makes you embarrassed to be from Cleveland?

Oh, and in other Gardy-related news, he finally got his extension. Good for him. As expected, it's a two year deal, and also as expected, it wasn't officially announced until all his coaches also got a two year contract extension. That's right folks. Ullger is now signed through 2010. Vavra will still be our hitting coach and Castellano is still the strength and conditioning coach -- so don't expect any more power.

I appreciate the loyalty shown here by Gardy and the Twins organization. But at what point is it clear that Ullger, Vavra, and Castellano aren't getting it done? We have performance metrics for the players, and even the manager (he has a 622-512 record), but we get nothing for these coaches and trainers, who have a huge impact on the abilities of the players to perform and the manager to win.

I demand satisfaction!

Also, congratulations Gardy.

Neshek Goes Down and Other Bad News

2008-11-12T00:00:00-08:00

In a bit of unexpected and horrible news this week, Pat Neshek had his first setback in his rehab from an elbow injury -- and as a result will have Tommy John surgery and miss the 2009 season. I'd been banking pretty heavily on his return, and without him the bullpen problems of 2008 will almost certainly bleed into 2009 and keep the team's chances of winning pretty weak.

Many expect this news to force the organization to redouble their efforts to acquire bullpen via trade or free agency; I'm not confident they'll do that though. The Twins are really high on their homegrown pitching talent, and as a result we might see a whole lot of AAA players shuffling through the bullpen to see who sticks. Hopefully we figure it out by June or July so we can start to make up the ground we'll surely sacrifice to the Indians, Tigers and White Sox by letting Boof and Guerrier repeatedly blow games for the first few months before handing more duties to Korecky, Breslow, Humber, Mulvey, Delaney, Duensing, et cetera, in the hopes that a few of them prove as effective as Mijares has.

In another bit of less-than-encouraging news, a dream of FireGardy has been dashed. Around here we've been secretly hoping that the Mariners try to steal Ullger away from us to be their new manager; after all, they're just about incompetent enough to do something like that. Alas, it appears that it's not to be. From Baseball Prospectus:

A sure sign that the Mariners are likely to begin a youth movement under new general manager Jack Zduriencik is that none of the seven managerial candidates he will interview have ever managed in the major leagues: Red Sox bench coach Brad Mills, Red Sox third-base coach DeMarlo Hale, Diamondbacks third-base coach Chip Hale, White Sox bench coach Joey Cora, Cardinals third-base coach Jose Oquendo, Athletics bench coach Dan Wakamatsu, and Randy Ready, the manager of the Padres' Triple-A Las Vegas farm club.

It was encouraging that they were looking for someone who hadn't been a major league manager before, but even they aren't foolish enough to court Ullger's services, apparently.

Offseaon Update

2008-11-10T00:00:00-08:00

The hot stove season is heating up with Jake Peavy rumors running rampant around the NL, and speculation of what big names the Yankees and Red Sox will acquire this offseason. Did anyone really think the Dodgers would part with Russell Martin? Is that just another example of Red Sox fans assuming they can have any good young players they want?

As far as the Twins go, things have been relatively quiet compared to last year. Garrett Atkins name has come up often, but I'm not really sold on that. Gleeman wrote a piece today on why it wouldn't be in the Twins best interest to acquire this slugger. The three main points I got out of it were a) he has decline every year since 2006, b)his home-road splits are quite drastic, and c) his defense is sub-par. All viable reasons, but Twins "fans" are clamoring for him because he is a big name and hits a fair amount of homers. All terrible reasons to want someone, especially since the price will be high.

Another name that keeps popping up is JJ Hardy. I like the idea of getting Hardy, but again I think the price will be too high. It will take at least one of our 2008 starting pitchers, plus 1-2 decent prospects. Casey Blake is a viable option to play third base for a few years. However, I do not think he is much of an upgrade of a Buscher-Harris platoon, and he will be drastically overpaid for some reason. He is 35 and has been released by the Twins twice. Outisde of Hardy I'm not sure who is available on the SS market. I've always been a fan of moving Casilla to short, but I doubt Gardy will do that. Another option for the left side of the infield is moving Cuddyer back to third. I don't mind this move. Its risky, and Cuddyer will have to be 100% willing to do it. Any hesitation and you don't do it. My biggest fear is that Gardy won't just plant him at third and leave him there. If one of the outfielders needs a day off I can really see Gardy throwing cuddyer out there as a fill-in, this would be a terrible idea.

If both of the moves abve are made, is Busher then your backup corner infielder and DH? That seems like a fine role for him. Who then plays second? Punto? Harris? If casilla stays at second is Punto the full-time shortstop, with Harris getting some reps? If Cuddyer stays in the outfield do we have Buscher/Harris at third and Punto at short? Gardy and the front office have lots of decisions to make, and hopefully we'll be busy at the winter meetings.

If I had my way I would test the waters of moving Cuddyer to third, check the market for Hardy (and any other SS). I don't think we should acquire a 3B, Cuddyer or Buscher/Harris (we will need to come up with a clever nickname for them) are both decent options. SS is where we should look into getting a fresh body. Punto shouldn't be allowed the be the everyday starter.

Thoughts?

Delmon Trade Rumors Begin

2008-11-06T00:00:00-08:00

Just saw a note at BP that the Twins are interested in Kevin Kouzmanoff, and are willing to trade Delmon Young to get him.

I have to say, I don't get it. Kouzmanoff will be 27, and he's just another low-OBP guy whose power will certainly evaporate once he comes near the Twins' clubhouse. Why would we give up a promising young player to get him?

His home-road splits are at least encouraging; when he gets out of the spacious confines of Petco Park, he's a .282/.330/.488 hitter, versus .243/.290/.390 at home. So he's actually the opposite of Garrett Atkins, who will certainly be considerably less valuable if he doesn't play at Coors Field.

This comes down to the fact that the Twins think they have four starters in the outfield, and they only want three of them. But the 2008 season demonstrated how valuable it is to have depth; one of the outfielders went down and we didn't miss a beat because we had another to step right in. If we lose one of these guys, we'll be seeing a lot of Pridie next season, and I don't know about you but I'd much rather keep him stashed at AAA until Revere/Morales/Parmelee/Benson/Hicks have advanced through the system and we can safely dump him into the Mississippi or something.

Frankly, I hope this is an unfounded rumor. I'm not a proponent of trading Delmon away, and if we do I'd hope we'd get something a little better than Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Twins Free Agency Filings

2008-11-01T00:00:00-07:00

The day after the World Series ends, players around the league whose contracts have expired are allowed to file for free agency. Every year, ESPN and other news outlets make this a big story, breathlessly reporting that Manny and Texeira have filed for free agency! I click the articles half expecting to see a couple of "OMG!!11" ejaculations amongst the baffling excitement. I mean, isn't this expected? Did you think Manny and Tex were going to retire? Because I didn't.

This year the Twins have fewer free agency filers than we have in recent years -- instead of Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva, this year we have to deal with Nick Punto, Dennis Reyes, and Eddie Guardado.

So the question becomes: what will the Twins do with each of these players?

One player is extremely simple; Guardado is as good as gone. He was set for a regression after an unsupportably good first half, and boy did he regress hard. He just couldn't get anyone out once he came to the Twins, and Gardy didn't seem to trust him at all. Good bye Eddie.

Some sources think we might re-sign Reyes, given that he had an "excellent 2.33 ERA" this season. This, of course, demonstrates one of the major problems with using ERA as a stat for a reliever, especially a lefty specialist. How many times this season did Reyes come in with men on base, give up a walk and a hit (with a wild pitch or two thrown in for good measure), either lose the lead or put the game out of reach by allowing inherited runners to score, then leave the game for another reliever to clean up (putting undue stress on other relievers)? Seriously, what percentage of the time did that happen? 50%? 90%? If Reyes gets, as some seem to expect, a $4M yearly salary, he's gone. There's no way the Twins are paying that for someone as unreliable and replaceable as Reyes. (Hey FunBobby, you're left handed: think you can throw a ball fifty feet and bounce it against the backstop four times in a row, three times a week, for a million dollars? You can be a lefty specialist!)

That leaves Nick Punto. We've been pretty hard on Punto over the years, and some of it had good reason. He's not a starting infielder, and shouldn't play as much as Gardy likes to let him play. But when our other infielders have been nonexistant/ineffective/injured, Punto has been able to step in and produce at a nearly-average level. He has value as a fill-in, as a talented utility man. Especially if he can hit well enough to post a 100 OPS+, as he did this year.

This year he made $2.4M, and no doubt he'll be looking for a raise. He may be thinking that he deserves to be paid like a starter. At the same time, the Twins should be looking to find a real starter at SS, and not to pay someone like Punto as if he were. It really depends on what Punto thinks he is (a starter or a utility man) and accordingly what he thinks he should be paid -- as well as what the Twins think of Tolbert and whether he's ready to get over his Punto-like early-career-effort-injuries, which come from trying too hard in situations where you shouldn't (diving into first base, diving for a foul ball you can't possibly reach and breaking your collarbone, etc).

My guess is that Tolbert isn't ready yet, and the Twins know it. I also think we'll offer Punto a contract, hopefully somewhere in the Mike Lamb range. Like 2 years, $6-7M total. If he demands more than that, it's just not worth it.

Oh, and we should be doing everything possible to keep him under 300 at bats next season. First step: find a real shortstop and commit to Buscher at third base until someone else comes up throw the system.

Thoughts on the Punto dilemma?

World Series Preview

2008-10-21T00:00:00-07:00

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Tampa finished dead last in the AL East last year, and had never won more than 70 games in its 10 year history. They spent those 10 years stockpiling top draft picks to assemble a young core of stud players, led by Evan Longoria and BJ Upton, and Scott Kazmir and James Shields on the mound. The Rays have to be one of the first world series teams to be led entirely by homegrown talent. Even their veterans are homegrown, Rocco Baldelli and Carl Crawford. They plugged some holes with effective veterans (unlike the Twins) in Cliff Floyd, Johnny Gomes and Troy Percival. They are also really fun to watch. The ex-Twins factor is pretty significant with Matt Garza (ALCS MVP), Jason Bartlett (team MVP), and Grant Balfour (resident flamethrowing badass/Australian). I like this team because they can beat you in many different ways. They can play the long ball with the best of them, and play small ball with the best of them. (Note that small ball can be successful without bunting -- the Rays had the fewest sacrifice bunts in the AL this year. One of the reasons their offense is so good is that they tend not to give away outs.)

I don't really know much about the Phillies. They have the best starting pitcher on either team in Cole Hamels, a very solid bullpen anchored by Brad Lidge, and a powerful lineup led by Utley and Howard. Rollins is one of the best tablesetters in the National League. My concern for this team is lack of starting pitching depth, after Hamels it gets dicey. Brett Myers is hit or miss, and Jamie Moyer is really not an ideal choice as your third best starter.

The Rays DO have starting pitching depth. Game one is Kazmir, game two is Shields , game three Garza, and game four Sonnanstine. That is a formidable four headed monster. If the Phillies get down early they can start Hamels on three days rest in game 4, Blanton is set to start that game now, but if I were Charlie Manuel I would throw Hamels as often as possible. So look for Hamels to be in game four on short rest. I would predict the Rays have a two to one series lead at that point. Although home field advantage will be huge. That band box the Phillies will benefit the powerful Rays just as much as the Phillies. I expect Longoria, Upton and Pena all to have multiple homers in Philly.

Looking at all the possible potential World Series match ups I have to say this one is probably the best. The Manny-Red Sox thing didn't interest me. I hate the White Sox, and any game played on the west coast would make for games going too late here. So that counts out the Angels, and the Dodgers (again), I wouldn't have minded seeing the Cubs, but the Brewers make me mad because they untuck their jerseys after they win, show some class.

FunBobby: Rays in six. While the Phillies are a good team with a good offense who call a hitter's dream their home ballpark, it's impossible to overlook the recent dominance of the AL over the NL in all phases of the game in which they compete -- interleague play, All Star games, World Series -- for years, it's been all AL all the time. And in an amusing twist, this year's All Star game, which annoyingly now decides home field advantage in the World Series, was decided by representatives by these two teams. Kazmir was the winning pitcher, while Lidge was the losing pitcher. I believe this is the first time that's happened in the history of the "This Time It Counts" Marketing Campaign, and is just about the only thing that could possibly make Selig's latest dream worthwhile or interesting. Usually the All Star game star is somebody from a team with absolutely no chance at the playoffs, which isn't how The Marketing Campaign should work. Obviously a sample size of a couple innings doesn't matter, but it's an interesting little factoid that TBS and Fox will surely overplay to absurdity. (If they actually show the games.) In the last couple of years, the team that finished their LCS first got beaten handily in the World Series, because a longer-than-usual layoff leaves them cold and rusty while their opponent continues to roll. This trend does not bode well for the Phillies, who will be cold despite being well rested. Just like the Rockies and the Tigers before them. Ultimately this series will come down to the answers of the following questions: 1) After overcoming the Red Sox onslaught of postseason clutchiness, will the Rays be imbued with a newfound optimism and continue to dominate, or will they suffer a hangover after such an extreme range of emotions over a span of a few days? 2) Will the Phillies be able to overcome recent history and stay hot despite winning the NLCS "too" quickly? sirsean: Rays in five

LCS Results

2008-10-20T00:00:00-07:00

Without further ado, our LCS results.

ALCS:

sirsean: Rays in Six FunBobby: Rays in Six Spangler: Red Sox in Five Reality: Rays in Seven

sirsean and I each picked up half a point for getting the team correct, but we were off on the number of games. Higgins decided not to participate, but I'm guessing he would have picked the Rays due to his hatred of the Red Sox.

Overall the AL teams gave us a good series. We saw great pitching and great hitting, and amazing comeback, and the second worst stadium in the American League. Oh yeah, and cowbells. Lots and lots of cowbells. David Ortiz also only decided to show up for about two at bats, and JD Drew again earned his paycheck with one good game.

Turns out the decision to set up Lester for game 7 worked out. Although he and Beckett were both rocked once, and pitched well once. Same goes for Dice-K. Tim Wakefield is bad.

NLCS:

sirsean: Dodgers in Five FunBobby: Dodgers in Six Spangler: Phillies in Five Reality: Phillies in Five

Spangler once again used his NL prowess to hit this one right on the head and earn a full point, while the people who actually "work" here were about as wrong as possible.

This was kind of a ho-hum series. The Phillies let the Dodgers have one, but they made it look easy. Or the dodgers made it look really difficult. For how impressive they were in the NLDS against the team claiming to be the Cubs, they looked equally unimpressive against the Phillies.

We'll be back tomorrow (maybe) with the World Series post. To recap, Spangler once again puts us to shame with his abilities to pick winners. We should start having him pick gambling lines or something, we should be able to exploit this and profit from him.

Bringing Out the Best in People

2008-10-14T00:00:00-07:00

Part of me wonders what it'd be like to have a player that makes people across the country go completely insane. I mean, they just lose their minds.

Starting one month before being traded to the Dodgers, Manny Ramirez started hitting like crazy. National sportswriters took this to mean that Manny hates the Red Sox and has been "phoning it in" for six years. They also missed the month he was with the Red Sox and dominating pitchers.

A few days ago, Manny Ramirez scored from first on a double. This sparked Tim McCarver and others to call his behavior despicable -- after all, he must never have done this for the Red Sox; he never ran hard! Obviously, he's trying harder for the Dodgers than he ever did for the Red Sox. (This ignores, of course, the fact that Manny has scored from first on a double 50% of the time over the course of his career, including 1-2 for the Red Sox in 2008 and 1-2 for the Dodgers in 2008.)

Then, Manny drove in a run with a double off the top of the wall in center field. It was a blast that looked like it could have made it out, and Manny stood for a fraction of a second to admire a possible homer. Upon noticing that it might not leave the park, Manny ran. Meanwhile, Victorino played the ball extremely well in center and got the ball back to the infield. Manny was safe and second, and nobody should be under the impression that he's fast enough to hit triples to center on any kind of regular basis. But ... by pausing for a fraction of a second he "cost the Dodgers a run" in that inning. Somehow.

Then Manny failed to score from first on a double. He sprinted (possibly faster than I've ever seen Manny run) all the way from first to third, rounded third hard, and listened to the third base coach who was putting up the stop sign. Victorino played the ball off the wall and got it back to the infield, and Manny would have been out by a mile if he'd gone, despite the fact that he ran at top speed the whole way. Of course, that doesn't stop people from saying he cost the Dodgers a run in that inning. Somehow.

Then Bill Plaschke decides that he can trump everyone. He's a great writer, and he's out to prove it. What's the one thing last night's loss to the Phillies proves?

That Manny Ramirez isn't worth whatever contract he's going to get.

He went 2-2 with a double, an RBI, and 3 walks (two intentional). That's the mark of a ridiculously good hitter who's clearly gotten into the heads of his opponents. A guy you'd want on your team, no doubt.

Meanwhile, one of the premier bullpens in baseball, which had been successful all season, had a rare bad night. Therefore, according to Plaschke, the Dodgers should spend $100 million on the bullpen, to replace the "young and inexperienced" bullpen with old guys who require expensive long term contracts and will be over the hill long before their contracts expire. This ignores the fact that fully half the Dodgers' excellent bullpen are experienced veterans, and the other half are extremely promising young hurlers. The bullpen may be the one aspect of the Dodgers team that doesn't need work this offseason.

But Bill Plaschke knows what he's talking about. Clearly. He's jumped on the "Manny Sucks" bandwagon. And stayed true to the mantra of said bandwagon: Manny sucks solely because of how consistently productive he is.

Something about Manny just brings out the best in people.

LCS Preview

2008-10-08T00:00:00-07:00

After an uneventful LDS preview (we are ignoring the fact that I finished dead last), firegardy.com moves on to take a closer look at the ALCS and NLCS. When making our picks we probably should have realized that no LDS has gone to five games in the last like five years, and there's always at least one sweep. Oops. Now that the useless Chicago teams are out of the picture, let's see if we fare any better.

ALCS

Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays

sirsean:

This is a tough one to call; the "surprising" Rays featuring youth and talent matches up against their divisional rival Red Sox, featuring experience and the favor of the league. I would have pointed out that the Rays went 10-8 against the Red Sox this season, showing complete dominance at home; however, the Angels had dominated the Red Sox this season even more than that and were quickly overmatched and ousted by ESPN's Team. Still, I think it's extremely valuable that the Rays have home field advantage thanks to their ability to hold off the Red Sox down the stretch, and I think they use their advantage in their terror dome to take the series. The Rays' young core of hitters, solid rotation and lights out bullpen should hold up here, and everyone knows Boston's less-young group will do the same. Should be an exciting series.

Rays in six.

FunBobby:

The Rays were 8-1 at home against the Red Sox, while the Red Sox were 7-2 against the Rays in Boston. I really like the way the Rays play, and I don't think their inexperience will really hurt them too much. Remember when they brawled with the Sox on at least one occasion this season? They aren't afraid or intimidated by those thugs from Boston. They have confidence, and won't fold. Their young pitching is there, and the lineup is no slouch. They have several guys they can use in the RF/DH slot in Gabe Gross, Rocco Baldelli, and Cliff Floyd, depending on the pitching matchups. How many teams can say they have a legit basestealing threat in the five hole (Carl Crawford)? Not many. Their speed really showed in the game against the other Sox on monday. Crawford walked (I think) and was really bothering Clayton Richard. He threw over what seemed like dozens of times. Cliff Floyd then doubled to deep left, scoring Crawford easily (Crawford actually stopped at second, then cruised home).

The Red Sox have the experience. They are defending World Series champs, have a good starting pitching, and a great lineup. They seem to have a lot of trouble playing in Tropicana Field, along with the rest of the league. Lester and Dice-K proved to be a great 1-2 punch against the Angels, and you can never count out Beckett, even if he pitched poorly in the ALDS. I like the Rays here because of their homefield advantage, and their speed, which should be able to throw off the Red Sox pitchers enough to win.

Rays in six.

NLCS

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

sirsean:

Manny Ramirez "carried" the Dodgers into the playoffs (or more accurately, was there when the rest of the team started playing better), and continued to have the same effect in the postseason: namely, he drew a bunch of walks then snuck some homers over the wall when his team already had a big lead in the middle innings. If his name were A-Rod, those home runs wouldn't have counted; fortunately for Manny, he's just Manny, so those homers count and put him at 26 postseason homers in his career. Most ever. Pretty good. Also pretty good are Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Russell Martin, and James Loney, who have been doing all the offensive work in this series. I think they'll fall back a little bit ... but it'll be counteracted by the Phillies' pitching (which isn't terribly impressive outside of Hamels) and ballpark (I think I might be able to hit one out in that place). At the same time, the Dodgers' pitching staff has been looking excellent, and have done a great job of shutting down Ryan Howard. I don't know if that'll continue (probably), but their penchant for throwing sinkers and keeping the ball in the strike zone should be very helpful against the powerful Phillies lineup. The Dodgers are probably the best team in the NL right now -- they played the best down the stretch, are scoring plenty of runs, and just absolutely dominated the formerly impressive Cubs.

Meanwhile, the Phillies have one of the more impressive lineups in the NL, featuring Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Pat Burrell. These stars didn't actually do very much during the NLDS -- which probably means they're due for a resurgence in this series. I expect at least one game in which those guys prove to be a sort of poor man's murderer's row and the Dodgers struggle to get them out. However, they swing and miss way too much to be consistent in that regard, and I doubt they'll produce daily against good pitching. Pitching-wise, Cole Hamels is a true ace and Brad Lidge has been one of the best closers in baseball this year (though he's starting to look shaky in the playoffs -- and is anyone else excited to see the look on his face when he faces Manny Ramirez in the 9th inning? Shades of Pujols). Beyond them, however, they have Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and dregs. Myers pitched a good game against the Brewers, and I don't see that happening again. The Dodgers should feast on the lower half of the Phillies' pitching staff. And remember that the only reason the Phillies even made the playoffs is because Ryan Howard killed another September (does anyone else get the feeling he just feasts on September callups like they're Subway sandwiches?) and the Mets collapsed again.

Dodgers in five.

FunBobby:

The Dodgers looked very impressive against some dudes wearing Cubs jerseys during the NLDS. This round they will actually have to face a major league baseball team in the Phillies. LA was carried by their young talent (Martin, Loney, etc.) against the Northsiders, and I think they will be carried again by these guys in the LCS. Manny will always be a threat, and I think Philly will do their best to pitch around him, especially when playing in the bandbox that is Citizens Bank Ballpark. I don't see homefield advantage being nearly as important as in the ALCS, but it always plays a role.

Lowe and Billingsley are great at the top order, while Kuroda is a nice option as the third starter. I'm told by the band of idiots baseball tonight puts on TV (Steve Phillips, Jon Kruk, etc.) that he was a "big game pitcher" in Japan. Whatever that means. With Jonathon Broxton closing out games for Torre, the starters should feel confident handing the game over to the bullpen with a lead.

The Phillies pitchers did a good job shutting down a very good Brewers lineup, and I agree that Hamels is really the only one you can count on, but if the Brett Myers that pitched last week shows up, the Phillies get another high quality starter. The Dodgers would be wise to make sure Derek Lowe pitches in Philly because he is a groundball pitcher and should be able to minimize the damage that Howard and Co. do via the longball. If the Phillies can get a lead to their bullpen, they should be in great shape. This is a very hard series to determine because both teams are strong.

Dodgers in six.

First Round Results

2008-10-07T00:00:00-07:00

Now that the first round of the postseason is over and we have to wait a few days before anybody plays baseball again (good schedule, Selig! Let's make sure there's baseball in November! And make sure none of the games end before midnight, please. I don't like being awake at work.), let's take a look back at how our predictions did for the LDS. And I'll also determine a winner!

(Note that my selection of a winner is unilateral, and my opponent, FunBobby, had no say in picking it. Just wanted to put that out there.)

Red Sox vs Angels

sirsean: Red Sox in five FunBobby: Angels in five A. Higgins: Angels in five spangler: Red Sox in four Reality: Red Sox in four

The Angels didn't show up in this one until they got to Boston and had virtually no chance at taking the series -- though they were a walk-off Lowrie base hit away from sending it to a fifth game. Looks like audience member spangler was dead on on this one, with a half point going to sirsean for getting the team right.

Rays vs White Sox

sirsean: Rays in four FunBobby: Rays in four A. Higgins: Rays in three spangler: Rays in five Reality: Rays in four

Everyone picked the Rays, with sirsean and FunBobby picking up a full point for picking the correct number of games; spangler and A. Higgins earned half points for getting the team right.

Dodgers vs Cubs

sirsean: Dodgers in five FunBobby: Cubs in four A. Higgins: Cubs in three spangler: Cubs in four Reality: Dodgers in three

This one was a bit of a surprise; only sirsean scored, picking up a half point for guessing the team, but getting the number of games wrong.

Brewers vs Phillies

sirsean: Brewers in four FunBobby: Brewers in five A. Higgins: Phillies in four spangler: Phillies in four Reality: Phillies in four

We clearly divided here between winners and losers. A. Higgins and spangler got a full point apiece for apparently being able to see into the future, sirsean was way too high on the Brewers, and FunBobby's pathological indifference to the National League came back to bite him.

Scoreboard

sirsean: 2 FunBobby: 1 A. Higgins: 1.5 spangler: 2.5

So the trophy goes to spangler, whose powers of prediction are unmatched! Congratulations!

We'll be back soon with LCS picks.

More Offseason Musings

2008-10-06T00:00:00-07:00

Lets take a look at the Twins free agents and who they should keep, and who they should let walk. I'm assumin the team will pick up the option on Mike Redmond, for a hair less than a million.

First up, Dennys Reyes. He made $1MM in 2008, and wasn't very good. With the emergence of Craig Breslow and Jose Mijares there is no need for an overpriced lefty. Let him walk.

Nick Punto. Punto "earned" $2.4MM in 2008 and would probably require a small raise. Still under $3MM, maybe $2.6 or $2.7. That is too much for someone we can easily replace. Tolbert and Harris are both utility players, no need to have a utility man who makes more money than our third and fourth best hitters combined (Kubel and Young, I don't know if that is actually true but its close, with Kubel making $1.3 and Young probably somewhere near league minimum, if you want to replace Young with Span go ahead, that numbers still work). I think the Twins will re-sign him for somewhere close to $3MM and it will be a waste of money when Tolbert is nearly identical and millions cheaper.

Adam Everett. This one is a no brainer. Goodbye.

Eddie Guardado. Again, I think this is a no brainer. I've already mentioned two lefties who are more effective, no need to carry three. Eddie G made $2MM in 2008, no reason to pay him that. Goodbye.

We are still on the hook for abour $2.6 of Mike Lamb's remaining contract. and we will be paying about 7.65 million to our "under control" players. Guerrier and Kubel are due moderate raises through arbitration, and Crain (1.7MM), Cuddyer (7.667MM), Mauer (10.5MM), Morneau (11.6MM) and Nathan (11.25MM) are all under contract. This should be a much more low stress offseason. Lets hope Wild Bill makes the right moves.

UPDATE: Delmon Young.

Twins Negotiating Contract Extension for Gardy

2008-10-05T00:00:00-07:00

Heard this: The Twins are working on a contract extension with Gardy, whose current contract expires after 2009.

For some reason, teams and managers alike find it an untenable situation when a manager actually manages during the last year of his contract. I don't fully understand that, but that's the way it works. So it comes as no surprise that the Twins would extend Gardy before the final year of his contract begins -- after such a good year, a vote of non-confidence like that would be all over the media and send the wrong message to all of our players.

This is probably a good move, and I'm sure the Twins fully expect to have Gardy in the new dugout at Target Field in 2010. I can only hope that he starts to learn the value of having people on base and making the pitcher work, as opposed to being most excited about possibly fitting a game in in under two hours.

I'd expect his extension to be in the range of 2 years (2010-2011), $2.75-3 million, if the team's history with Gardenhire is any guide. He's on his fourth consecutive two year deal, with gradually increasing pay each time. Each time, he signed the extension before the final year of the contract started.

I'll keep my eye on this as it develops.

We Could Do Worse Than Gardy

2008-10-04T00:00:00-07:00

Around here we tend to give Ron Gardenhire a hard time about his "old school" methods and beliefs, and the two-faced way in which he, for example, teaches the players both to "take pitches and make the pitchers work" and to "stay aggressive and put the ball in play," and that the fact that the Twins don't draw any walks and swing at more first pitches and pitches out of the zone don't seem to matter to him.

But it could be worse. Last night, Jerry Manuel was given a two year extension by the Mets. His first duty as manager is to find out why the Mets collapsed in September again, this time on his watch.

"We have to grow from every time that we get as close as we get and don't make it, and we have to review and kind of marinate on why we don't make it," Manuel said during a conference call.

That makes sense. There's nothing wrong with that, really. I don't know how valuable it is to really dwell on past failures, but if it takes a little time to learn from them it's probably fine. So after marinating for a while, what did Manuel come up with?

"You get so many statistical people together, they put so many stats on paper, and they say, well, if you do this and you score this many runs, you do that many times, you'll be in the playoffs," he said. "That's not really how it works, and that's what we have to get away from. And that's going to have to be a different mind-set of the team in going forward. We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people. We have to win because we have baseball players that know and can understand the game."

Yes. It's so obvious! The reason the Mets collapsed was because of statistics. Not only that, but because there are too many "statistical people." I can only hope that Manuel can replace those statistical people with baseball players who can understand the game. I'm going to go ahead and make the assumption, though, that the "statistical people" who work for the Mets, if there are any, work in the front office. Not on the actual baseball team, where you'd actually want actual baseball players.

My guess is that some young punk crossed Manuel once, and mentioned something about analysis saying that you want to avoid giving up outs -- because there are only so many of them. Manuel obviously didn't take too well to that, instead preferring to teach his players to be more clutch ... by giving away outs.

"We have to put a value on say, moving a runner over. [...] We have to put a value on infield back, ground ball that's sufficient to score a run," he said. "Those types of things have to be accented in order for us, in my opinion, to kind of get to the next level."

Awesome. The main problem the Mets have had this year is they scored too many runs without recording an out on the play. So at this point it's clear that Manuel is an old school type of guy who prefers effort over talent, who wants clutchy grinders on his team, the kind of guy who thinks Carlos Beltran is no good because things look (and are) easy for him. Given that Manuel's team has a core of Beltran, David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Delgado, he must feel pretty good about his team. Right? I mean, those are pretty good players who consistently put up pretty good numbers. You could do a lot worse than having those guys on your team.

"You don't see a lot of guys that have statistical numbers play well in these championship series," Manuel said. "What you see is usually the little second baseman or somebody like that carries off the MVP trophy that nobody expected him to do. That's because he's comfortable in playing that form of baseball, so therefore when the stage comes, it's not a struggle for him."

Blink. I find it difficult to understand exactly what he means by this. Does he mean that he'd prefer Wright and Delgado don't do as well during the season? Should Reyes and Beltran steal fewer bases until after the Mets are in the playoffs? Isn't this solving the exact opposite of the problem?

First, let's look back and see who the World Series MVPs were over the past few years:

2007: Mike Lowell 2006: David Eckstein 2005: Jermaine Dye 2004: Manny Ramirez 2003: Josh Beckett 2002: Troy Glaus 2001: Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling

That's pretty much a list of good players, who tend to have good statistical regular seasons, and also happened to do well in the last handful of games they played in that particular year. Jerry Manuel might be the only person in the world who would pass on the chance to have Lowell, Dye, Manny, Beckett, Glaus, Randy Johnson and Schilling on his team -- after all, their numbers are too good. That means they're bad.

And David Eckstein? I presume he's exactly the player Manuel was talking about when he said a little second baseman who carried off the MVP when nobody expected him to. (The other MVPs don't even come close to meeting that criterion.) Well, there are a few reasons nobody "expected" Eckstein to win the WS MVP in 2006.

1) Nobody expected the Cardinals to be in the World Series in 2006 2) Certainly nobody expected them to win 3) David Eckstein is not a good player 4) While Eckstein hit .364/.391/.500 in the Series, his teammate Scott Rolen hit .421/.476/.737 (which is quite obviously a lot better)

But Jerry Manuel doesn't care about these things. Jerry Manuel only cares about the fact that Eckstein performed better in the World Series than he did during the regular season, and that if the Mets had a bunch more players like that, then, um, they'd do better during the regular season. No, wait, I don't know what Manuel was getting at.

The odd thing is that he didn't say anything about the team's actual problem, the bullpen. It's tough to win games when the bullpen blows every lead you ever manage to take. The Mets lost like 10 games when leading after 8 innings. The Phillies lost 0 such games. That is where your team needs to improve.

But don't tell Jerry Manuel that. He might think you're a "statistical person" and replace you with a baseball player.

So every time Gardy does something that doesn't seem to make any sense, know this: it could be a whole lot worse.

The Offseason Kicks Off: Orlando Cabrera?

2008-10-04T00:00:00-07:00

The offseason starts early this year for the Twins, and the rumors have already started swirling. With shortstop a major weakness for the Twins, and the White Sox predictably being handled by the Rays, the first Twins rumor is that we're targeting Orlando Cabrera.

My initial reaction: Good idea, and in fact I'd been thinking about this for a while; Cabrera dislikes the White Sox and has been outspoken about how the Twins are a team and clubhouse that are the model for teams everywhere. Unsurprisingly, this has not improved his standing in Ozzie's eyes, and he almost certainly won't be extended in Chicago. And he'd definitely be an upgrade over what we're currently getting out of our shortstops!

After letting it sink in for a bit: Cabrera turns 34 in November and only hit .281/.334/.371 this season. Edgar Renteria showed us that shortstops can hit the wall really fast in their mid-thirties, and given that a multi-year big-money contract would be required, it's kind of a big risk. Also, while I appreciate the fact that he doesn't fit in the White Sox clubhouse, he has a history of being a disruptive element in every clubhouse and has rarely been liked by his fellow players. Guys with that kind of reputation aren't exactly who you want to target -- and OC's was built over the last 15 years in professional baseball, unlike Delmon Young's which happened in a brief couple of years when he should have been hidden away in college.

Nick Punto hit .284/.344/.382 this season. Seriously. If we go after Cabrera, we could be looking at signing a guy who hits worse than Punto and is at best marginally better in the field to a 3 year, $30 million contract.

Wild Bill would be wise to look elsewhere for a shortstop. Perhaps Rafael Furcal, if the bidding doesn't go too crazy.

Day 1 Recap

2008-10-02T00:00:00-07:00

We had three games yesterday, Brewers-Phillies, Cubs-Dodgers, and Angels-Red Sox.

Brewers 1Phillies 3

Cole Hamels was stratight dealing from the first pitch. He didn't give the brewers a chance. So, in typical Wisconsin fashion they decided if anyone was going to beat them, it was going to be themselves. Rickie Weeks committed and error at second base that led to all three Phillies runs. It also didn't help that Gallardo walked 5 guys. Lidge pitched a scare ninth, 35 pitches, 2 hits, 1 walk, 1 ER, with 3ks, to close out the game.

Cubs 2 Dodgers 7

This was, in my opinion, the biggest game of the day. Everyone seemed to agree the Cubs really needed to set the tone for this series by winning game one. With Billingsley starting game two for the Dodgers a game one loss could prove detrimental to the Cubbies. Ryan Dempster labored for four innings, but somehow managed to shut the Dodgers out through four. He then loaded the bases in the fifth for firstbaseman James Loney who homered giving the Dodgers a 4-2 lead they wouldn't relinquish. LA tacked on 3 more runs off of Marshall, Smadrzija, and Jason Marquis. Six of their runs came via the homerun, with 8 of the nine total runs coming via the homer. I'm hoping Casey Blake got made fun of in the clubhouse postgame for being a little girl and hitting an RBI single.

Red Sox 4 Angels 1

By losing game one the Angels put that much more pressure on themselves to win game two. If they can't manage to do that, they will have to face Josh Beckett in Boston in a series clinching game. Something nobody wants to do. Lester looked very good, giving up just one unearned run, over 7 innings of 6 hit ball. He did walk one, but struck out 7. Lackey struggled a little but, but holding the Red Sox to 2 runs into the 7th is pretty impressive.

Today we have Tampa Bay-Chicago (1:30pm); Milwuakee-Philadelphia (5:00pm) and Chicago-LA (8:30pm). Should be another great day for baseball.

Postseason Preview

2008-10-01T00:00:00-07:00

The firegardy.com preseason predictions can be found here.

Now that the regular season is (finally) over, here's our preview of the divisional series. We were going to do a preview of the entire playoffs, but it turns out that we here at Fire Gardy have different opinions on some of the matchups ... and trying to predict the winner of the LCS and World Series doesn't really work when you can't agree on who's even playing. So stay tuned for more contradicting predictions later on throughout October.

American League

ALDS: Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels

sirsean:

The Angels finished the season with the best record in baseball, the only 100 win team, having coasted for the last couple months of the season due to their presence on the West Coast, where baseball teams go to suck. (Apparently.) This is a good, solid team with an excellent rotation, the single season saves champion, and an impressive middle of the lineup. They traded for Mark Texeira for exactly this series -- they needed pop to combat the Red Sox in the postseason.

And they're facing the Red Sox right away, of course. Even without Josh Beckett (possibly), the Red Sox have a formidable rotation -- and Beckett hasn't pitched well this season anyway, given that it's his bi-annual down year. And without the powerful presence of Manny Ramirez, the lineup actually scored more runs than it did with him; that can't fill the Angels with confidence, even though every one of their pitchers would rather face Jason Bay than Manny.

FunBobby:

The Angels grabbed first in the AL West and never really looked back. Seattle was supposed to give them a run for their money, instead the Mariners just ran away with the fans'. Even though LAA was in first by double digits at the trade deadline they decided to go out and get Mark Texeria to help them in the postseason. The Angels have a strong starting staff, anchored by John Lackey, and followed by Ervin Santana, Jared Weaver, and Joe Saunders. Their bullpen is anchored by K-Rod, but they have a few decent setup men as well. Jose Arredondo stands out from this group. He is a 24 year old future closer (sound familiar to where K-Rod was in 2002?) who has 55 strikeouts in 61ip with a 1.62 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He vultured 10 wins out of the bullpen, and had 16 holds. He should be able to keep the Red Sox in check for the last inning or two before K-Rod comes in to slam the door.

I just really don't like the Red Sox. Only being able to start Beckett once really hurts them, but Jon Lester and Dice-K aren't terrible starters for games one and two. I'm guessing they will either use Tim Wakefield or the game one starter on short rest for game four.

It sounds like the Red Sox will be able to get at least some at bats out of Mike Lowell and JD Drew. This really helps then, I don't know if Francona plans on starting them both, or using them off the bench at first and then starting them in games two and three.

sirsean's take: In this matchup of AL titans, I think the Red Sox will take the series in five games. Never underestimate the team that miraculously wins in the postseason just when the cable channels realize they need the ratings boost.

FunBobby's take: I like the Angels, mainly because they will only have to face Beckett once. Dice-K walks guys and the Angels can do damage on the basepaths. They are one of the most complete teams the AL has seen in a while. LAA in five.

ALDS: Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays

FunBobby:

The Rays, who actually play in St. Petes, rode a young starting rotation and core of position players to their first playoff appearance ever. They beat the Red Sox down the stretch for the division title. Their rotation consists of James Shields (the projected game 1 starter), Scott Kazmir (last years strikeout champ), Matt Garza, along with "youngsters" Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson. Their lineup also has some great young players. The elder statesman of the group is Carl Crawford, who was hurt for the stretch run but has been activated. Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria are their two homerun threats, with Donnier Navarro and Rocco Baldelli also able to crank one out now and again. David Price gives Joe Maddon a valuable arm out of the bullpen to bolster his already strong relief corps.

Not sure how this young team will handle the pressures of October baseball. The one player who comes to mind as having playoff experience is Cliff Floyd, and he is a bench player at this point. Jason Barlett played in the playoffs with the Twins in 2006, but most of their "core players" have played no meaningful games in August, let alone October. I like how they played down the stretch to hold off a very good Red Sox team, they really showed their mettle.

The White Sox won the division in game 163 in a game that should have been played at the Metrodome. All bitterness aside I do not like their chances. They have been using a four man rotation for what seems like weeks, and they have a phobia of domes. I think the Rays talented young pitchers will be able to hold the White Sox aging sluggers at bay for a five game series and take it.

sirsean:

The Rays are obviously the best story in baseball this season, the quintessential "worst to first" story that's truly American, the story of the 1991 World Series. I was a year early on this team -- I thought they'd be good last year -- but in the end it was the Twins front office that pushed the Rays over the edge by sending them Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett to shore up the weaknesses on their team without taking anything they truly valued in return. The cores of both their rotation and lineup are both young and talented, setting this team up to be a force to be reckoned with in the years to come; that said, their bullpen and defense have both overachieved this season, and I'd expect them to regress next season. So that leaves this year as their window, and they sure look poised to take advantage.

On the other hand, the White Sox barely narrowly defeated the Twins in the Central, mostly because they didn't-want it just a little less than the Twins. The tiebreaker was something of a misnomer; instead, it was a coinflip and a heartbreaker. But power keeps you in every game, as the Sox showed in their last few games by winning with homers. Of course, this team lives and dies by the home run, and the Rays have solid pitching that may be able to hold them in the park. Alexei Ramirez, the Cuban Missile, is probably second behind Evan Longoria for rookie of the year. Thome, Griffey, Dye, and Konerko are imposing sluggers in the middle of the lineup. AJ plays dirtier than anyone, and plays the kind of headgames that create victories from thin air. It's impossible to dismiss these White Sox, no matter how bad they've looked over the past few weeks. Don't forget 2005.

sirsean's take: With the Twins out, I have to go to my second team, and that's the Rays. Youth wins in four games.

FunBobby's take: Rays in four, I hope one of the games is close enough to give Hawk a heart attack.

National League

NLDS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs

sirsean:

Tuesday, in downtown Chicago, the city threw a parade for the Cubs making the playoffs, celebrating wildly. Meanwhile, the White Sox were preparing for a game starting in mere hours that could send them to the playoffs -- and downtown paid no heed while the local media grumbled about how they'd better not lose this thing. How can the Cubs be congratulated so passionately for simply making the playoffs, while at the same time the White Sox are simply required to make it? I predict bad things for the Cubs due to this premature celebration.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers have Manny Ramirez on their team, and I seem to recall that Joe Torre had some success in the past in the playoffs when he had talented young position players complemented by slugging veterans -- as opposed to the failure he experienced in the playoffs when he had a team consisting of expensive slugging veterans complemented by expensive mediocre veterans. Plus, Manny doesn't have a contract, and Boras wants to make money -- so Manny will hit and hit and hit. Be prepared for Wrigley to yield several Manny-bombs in this series.

FunBobby:

The Cubs have a very well balanced team. Good starters with Dempster-Zambrano-Harden-Lilly, and the duo of Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood out of the bullpen can really lock opponents down at the end of a game. Jeff Smardijizia has stepped up as a good reliever to take the stress off of the aforementioned duo.

The lineup is solid from top to bottom, with Soriano, Lee, Ramirez and Soto doing the heavy lifting. Lee and Soriano have a good amount of playoff experience, and I think Lou Pinella will do a very good job of making sure the young guys (and guys who have never been there) will keep focused.

The Dodgers rotation doesn't impress me very much. Derek Lowe is slated to start game one, followed by Chad Billingsley and Hiroki Kuroda. Greg Maddux or Derek Lowe on three days rest will pitch game four if necessary.

Manny is great, but outside of him I don't think the Cubs will have too many issues. Russell Martin is a solid player who I like a lot, and their group of young outfielders is impressive, but not sure how they will handle the pressure and the excellent pitching the Cubs will be trotting out there inning after inning. I think Joe Torre can win them one game.

sirsean's take: Dodgers in five.

FunBobby's take: Cubs in four. The Dodgers get one in LA.

NLDS: Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies

sirsean:

It took more good work by the Mets this season to allow this matchup to happen. Their lead this year was only 6.5 games with 17 to play (as opposed to 7 games last year), but this time around they managed to collapse just enough to let two teams pass them. No thanks to Johan Santana, who did not contribute to the team's collapse, throwing a shutout on the second to last day of the season, on short rest, after throwing a career high 125 pitches in his last start. Johan Santana is not a team player. (Where team == Mets.)

CC Sabathia, however, is a team player, and he carried the Brewers to the playoffs on his hefty shoulders. Pitching on short rest three times in a row to ensure a playoff spot is the stuff legends are made of, and CC is doing it. Former manager Ned Yost took a lot of heat for the way he rode CC, and interim replacement Dale Sveum hasn't changed a thing. The Brewers back Sabathia up with a powerful young lineup featuring Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder; expect them to score runs against the Phillies.

Speaking of the Phillies, they're no slouches either when it comes to scoring runs, especially when Ryan Howard realizes that it's late in the season, which means "MVP Time" in his Subway-sandwich-selling world. With a lineup featuring Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Pat the Bat Burrell, Howard and company expect to score; and they need to given that their pitching staff could generously be described as "leaky."

FunBobby:

I don't really know much about these two teams, other than Ryan Howard reminds me of Happy Gillmore when he is in those Subway ads. Both have offenses that can score runs (they both seem to be built more like an AL team than the Twins). CC is starting game two for the Brew Crew, so he might be able to pitch twice. No Ben Sheets is a real blow to the Beermakers, so the rest of their rotation will consist of Dave Bush, Yovani Gallardo (who missed most of the season), Manny Parra (who Prince tried to beat up), and Jeff Suppan. Gallardo is set for game one, followed by CC, then its up in the air. The Phillies counter with Cole Hamels-Brett Myers-and the ageless Jamie Moyer. I'll have to give the edge to the Brewers here, only because of CC. He seems to be an unstoppable force right now.

The Phillies have the far superior bullpen. They have the second lowest bullpen ERA in the NL. Brad Lidge will get a few Cy Young votes, and to get our former Twins fix, JC Romero is one of their lefties. I'm not sure how they plan on using Joe Blanton-as a starter or a reliever. i agree with sirsean, the Phillies have a questionable rotation at best, but their bullpen should be able to get them out of some jams.

sirsean's take: I can't go against the magic of CC, even though he's only pitching one game in this series (probably ... but don't count him out). I'm going with the Brewers in four games.

FunBobby's take: I'm going Brewers in five. That is more of a guess than anything.

Preview of game 163

2008-09-30T00:00:00-07:00

Game 163 is scheduled to start at 6:30 tonight, in Chicago (which is a travesty I won't address again). The white sox are starting John Danks against the Twins' Nick Blackburn. Both starters have pretty ugly numbers against the opponent. Danks is pitching on three days rest, while Blackburn is pitching on five days rest. Danks has terrible numbers while on three days rest, and given the total number of innings he has pitched this year and given his relative inexperience this can't help him. That extra day should help Blackburn because he is in the same boat. High innings total, young arm, etc. Not sure what else to think. Guillen used four relievers yesterday (Thorton, Dotel, Linebrink and Jenks) I'm guessing most of them will be available today since none pitched more than one inning. I think Thorton only faced a few batters, so I'm sure he will be asked to come in and get Mauer-Morneau out at some point late in the game.

I think this game will be close, but I honestly don't like our chances. We play like children on the road, and Blackburn has been pretty unimpressive in his last few starts. Especially the ones on the road. Will gardy start Cuddyer against the lefthanded starter instead of Kubel at DH? Probably. Not sure if that is wise considering the do or die nature of this game. Also, I think the game is on TBS, not sure if it will be on FSN as well.

Go Twins.

162+ The Dream Dies

2008-09-30T00:00:00-07:00

This is the end Beautiful friend This is the end My only friend, the end It hurts to set you free But you'll never follow me The end of laughter and soft lies The end of nights we tried to die -- The Doors

Well folks, that's it. The dream is dead, the season is over, this is the end. We've finally successfully given the division away, proving that we did indeed want it less.

Mauer finished his season 0-3, stumbling to the batting title as embarrassingly as possible. Morneau finished in a 10-59 slump, sacrificing the MVP trophy to the hated Red Sox. The rest of the cast of characters ... just as bad, just more anonymous.

The only thing good about this game was that Blackburn looked great, holding the White Sox to one run in 6.1 innings, and that one run game on a 10,000 foot home run by Jim Thome in the seventh inning. He looked great. This game was not Blackburn's fault. And I'm absolutely not confident we would have done anything better if this game were at the dome. We just didn't hit. We didn't show up.

Visions of warm champagne were filling our heads as we flailed at pitches and choked as hard as we know how.

But now that the season is over, we can finally consider the fact that this is better than anyone (other than myself -- my World Series prediction died hard tonight) thought this season would be. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year. Cuddyer's t-shirts with "162+" on them were thought to be a joke to get the guys to play hard in a down year -- but who could have known just how cruel that message would be in the end?

It's too soon to look forward to next season; instead, it's the right time to sit back and reflect on the good times. It doesn't seem like it now, but there were plenty. Seriously. Close your eyes.

Gomez hit for the cycle.

Mauer won a batting title.

Morneau finished 1 RBI behind Hamilton for the AL title.

Morneau won the home run derby over the very same Hamilton.

Slowey threw two shutouts.

Liriano appeared to get his stuff back.

Jose Mijares emerged as a future setup man.

Baker can handle pressure.

Keep thinking. It was a good season. We could have won another game or two here or there and got into the playoffs, but so could the White Sox -- let's not play that game. It's a loser's game.

But this is the end of laughter. This is the end of the last night when our dreams died.

Now What?

2008-09-29T00:00:00-07:00

Well, the Twins have played 162 games and their fate is still TBD. The White Sox host the Tigers this afternoon (1:05 central) in a makeup game from earlier this month. If the Sox lose, the division is ours. If they win, we play in Chicago tomorrow to determine the final playoff spot in the AL. The winner of that game heads to Tampa (actually St. Petes) to play the (Devil) Rays. If my math (not California math, real math) is correct the Twins will be starting Nick Blackburn, unless Slowey is able to pitch. Looks like the White Sox will start John Danks, who last pitched (poorly) against the Indians on Friday. He will be on short rest, which benefits the Twins. Although he only pitched 4 innings on Friday night. I would prefer Slowey, but if he isn't healthy I guess we really have no choice. The bullpen should be rested after Baker went 7 strong yesterday and an off day today.

Playing in Chicago is not ideal of course, but us having the off day today and the White Sox not having one plays in our favor. I am not wild about the matchup, that is why we need to cheer really hard for the Tigers. The only thing they have to play for is a tie for last place, instead of occupying the cellar solo. Finishing behind the Royals is pretty much the worst outcome to a season, so maybe they will want to win. Or maybe they will get a kick out of messing up a divisional rivals playoff chances. Who knows, but I just hope they don't mail it in an conceede defeat before the first pitch.

Another question I have is why is there even is a "tie-breaker" game? Why doesn't the team with the better record head to head just win the division? I'm not just saying this because the Twins won. A tie-breaker should only be played if the season series is split.

Go Tigers!

At Least We're Not the White Sox

2008-09-27T00:00:00-07:00

Talk about a letdown. The Twins came out flat last night, and it looked like they couldn't wait for their at bats to be over so they could eagerly jog back to the dugout. That's not exactly the attitude I'd like to see in the heat of a pennant race.

Mauer got his hits and they didn't help. Morneau continues to play like he doesn't want to be the MVP. Span/Casilla/Gomez looked like a bunch of rookies. Liriano apparently thought it was April again. Nothing went right for us last night in that brutal defeat.

Except one thing -- the White Sox also lost to the Indians. They put up a whole lot more fight ... but still fell 11-8. And for all you Twins fans out there who are down on the Twins, know this: it could be worse. The White Sox "fans" at New Comiskey US Cellular Field Stadium were booing their team in the top of the first inning, and didn't stop all game, despite the attempted comeback and the close game. We may have felt too good after sweeping the Sox and set ourselves up for a fall, but the Sox have apparently been broken. And Chicagoans, like rats, are the first to abandon ship.

And I heard tell that MLB has decided to change the time of the Twins game today. Instead of starting the game at 7, they're starting it at 3. I'm guessing this has to do with Fox's Mega Bribe of MLB, and that since this is an important game they have to do everything they can to minimize the number of people who are able to watch it. Since the game starts before 6, I won't be able to watch it on MLB.TV, and they'll be showing the Cubs on Fox here in Chicago. It's immensely frustrating, as I'm sure you can imagine. I feel like it's Sunday, when I have to watch the Bears (or Hallmark made for TV movies) instead of the Vikings every week. I thought this was America!

Okay Twins. It's back to must-win time. We can't hang our hats on that thrilling extra innings win on Thursday, even though every player seems to think it was the peak of their careers.

Go Twins.

Where is my broom?

2008-09-26T00:00:00-07:00

"I might take a sleeping pill tonight. And a glass of vodka," Guillen said. "Twenty-seven innings and we only had one good one. We wasted 26 innings in this town." -Ozzie

I hate to use the term "emotional roller coaster" so I won't. That was a wild game. Slowey looked unhittable for three innings, then the wheels came off. He couldn't get a guy out in the fourth inning. After retiring nine in a row on thirty pitches, he decided to stop throwing strikes. However, lets not talk about the top of the fourth anymore. I think the key to this game was getting two runs back right away. We didn't go into shutdown mode after they put up a six-spot in the top of the inning. We knew we couldn't rely on hitting a grand slam at some point followed by a solo shot, so we had to start the comeback right away. Two runs here, a run there, a few more later on. That is how the Twins comeback.

How about that bullpen? They have thrown ten scoreless in the last two games. If you had told me that a week ago I would have slapped you in the face. I think Ozzie allowing Jenks to pitch a third inning was questionable. I'm assuming his reasoning was "Jenks at 70% is better than the next guy in line at 100%", which I tend to agree with. Karlos had probably his best game of the season, maybe tied for first with the time he hit for the cycle (also against the White Sox).

Granted a lefty was on the mound, but I don't like Gardy's decision to pinch hit for Kubel late in the game. Kubel is one of our best hitters and I think he could have done some damage. Not that it matters, we won anyway.

I have a theory about why this team has played so well this season (September swoon not included): Our players are young enough that they don't realize the pressure of the situation. I get the feeling Gomez, Span, and Casilla would be playing the same way if we were ten games out. I have no facts or evidence to back that up, but this is the internet and I don't need them.

Shifting gears for a minute, how bad would the NYMets be WITHOUT Santana? They are in the midst of collapsing AGAIN and he is the only reliable player on that squadron. He has to be frustrated, granted the Twins bullpen hasn't been much better of late, so he can't have that much buyers remorse (I'm not sure I used that term correctly, but again its the internet, I do what I want).

Hopefully Gardy and the rest of the coaching staff keeps the team focused and they don't have a letdown against the Royals, who have quietly been playing well. The white sox get the indians at home, with Cliff Lee going on sunday. The magic number is now 4. Go Twins.

Also, USC lost. Good day all around.

There you are bullpen.....

2008-09-25T00:00:00-07:00

We've missed you.

I'm not going to lie, I was pretty nervous every inning of this game, especially when the ones that featured Breslow, Bonser, and Mirajes. Good thing each of them didn't last long (innings that is, not pitchers). I thought Blackburn did a great job pitching out of jams, granted he got himself into those jams but its a good sign that he doesn't lose focus and just gets guys out. You can't blame the guy for giving up a homer to Junior, he is probably the greatest hitter of our generation.

I don't think its possible to stress how much those four near perfect innings of relief were. The combination of Breslow, Bonser, and Mijares gave up a total of one hit and one walk in four innings. That is pretty damn impressive considering just how bad the relief corps has been of late. Blackburn just didn't seem to have his best stuff but he still managed to get through five innings and only give up two runs to this powerful White Sox lineup. Ken Griffey, Jr. was responsible for both of them. I think the bullpen appreciated that effort by Blackburn and decided to pick him up and make sure he got the win. Now, if I find out that the bullpen has been deciding when they want to pitch well, and when they want to pitch poorly I will kill them all.

On the offensive side of the ball the Twins were pretty boring but did what they needed to do. Outside of Gomez we only struck out twice (Gomez struck out 3 times, I think we should start calling him Karlos). We drew four walks and positioned ourselves on the bases so we could score two of our runs on outs. Both fielders choices (i have no idea if both of those should be plural) by Joe Mauer.

Nathan made it interesting, but with the help of Karlos his linescore looks like he just allowed one harmless walk. Instead of nearly giving up a double to AJ that was catch-able by one center fielder in baseball, and throwing twenty pitches, only ten of them for strikes. I'm starting to notice some Mark Fidrych tendencies in Nathan, hopefully that doesn't lead to full blown craziness.

Tonight is the surgeon Kevin Slowey, Amy Nelson has a good piece about the Twins young pitchers, especially Slowey on ESPN.com. I really like how we bookended this series with Baker and Slowey, in my opinion they are our two best starters, 1a and 1b if you will. Enjoy the game tonight. Any predictions on the lineup Gardy puts out there? I think you have to stick with the normal lineup versus righties. Buscher at third, Kubel DHing. Thoughts?

out-sox-ing the sox

2008-09-24T00:00:00-07:00

There is no reason Jason Kubel should sit ever again. Hitting that second homer off of a lefty should secure him a spot in the lineup tonight against White Sox lefthander Mark Buehrle, if not it probably means gardy will still be drunk when he makes the lineup card. I think he pretty much has to go with the same lineup tonight, Mauer and Morneau kill lefties, so you can't sit them (and they are our two best hitters so you never should sit them based on "the percentages"), Kubel should play, he is our third best hitter (as sirsean asked me rhetorically in a text message last night "do david ortiz and ryan howard sit against lefties?"), and you can't possibly sit Span after what he has done both offensively and defensively lately. Cuddyer just hasn't done much to earn a spot in the lineup, and going forward each game is more important than the last so we can't afford to have one guy in the lineup who is "getting his timing bacK".

Lets hope Blackburn feeds off the energy of the crowd, and the momentum of the last two good outings by starters. Thoughts on the lineup for tonight? or the game in general?

UPDATE: I just read over on Joe C's blog post from last night that Cuddyer will indeed play tonight. I'm assuming that he will DH, so looks like Gardy ignored the first sentence of this post. Thats a bummer, dude.

Twins-Sox series preview

2008-09-23T00:00:00-07:00

As many of you know, the Twins and White Sox start a pretty important series tonight at the dome. The match-ups have been set. Its Vazquez-Baker tonight, followed by Buehrle-Blackburn tomorrow night, and Floyd-Slowey is the matchup for the finale on wednesday night. Some people say that all three games are must wins for the Twins. I agree with these people. We have won something like 5 of our last 6 home games against Chicago, a trend that needs to continue.

If we sweep the series we are a half game up, if we only win two of three we are 1.5 games back. The Sox still have that make-up game to play with the Tigers due to the rainout a few weeks back. This will only be played if necessary. We play KC at home after the White Sox, and the Sox go back to Chicago to play the Indians.

Thoughts on the series? Does anyone think the Twins can afford to lose one of these games?

Who is responsible?

2008-09-18T00:00:00-07:00

After this season mercifully comes to a close in a little over a week we will ask ourselves "who is responsible?". So lets just do that now. Someone MUST be held accountable for the Twins disastrous stretch run. But who? (or whom, I'm not sure). The first suspect will be this site's namesake, Ron Gardenhire. His terrible in-game management (notice how I said "in game" meaning lineup construction, bullpen management, not shooting Scott Ullger in May, etc.) has been magnified down the stretch run. Everyone seems unfocused, especially the defense. They have made dozens of boneheaded plays that have led to crucial losses. Gardy has clearly done a bad job of managing by not only using a dart board to determine who will come out of the bullpen, but it seems as though he never reminded anyone we have been in a pennant race for the past month or so. I was reading about the firing of Ned Yost and I noticed he has basically managed his team to a similar record and playoff positioning as Gardy this season. So why was Gardy not fired as the team floundered down the stretch? If you say because "nobody expected the Twins to be in the race in September" you are an idiot. That is a terrible reason. Just because everyone (baseball writers, what the hell do they know anyway) thought we would be in the AL Central basement, doesn't mean we get a free pass to be sucky. Yeah it was fun, but the fact remains we ARE (or were, depending on your state of mind) in it. Preseason expectations should notdictate how decisions are made during the season. I'll say this, Gardy probably should keep his job because he has done a lot for the team in the past and he has gotten a lot out of a pretty mediocre and untested bunch of guys. However, if you are Ned Yost, you have to be a little upset. He basically lost his job because he didn't live up to the hype, and Gardy surpassed the hype and kept his despite the two teams being in near identical positions. Moving on....

Next up in the firegardy.com blame game is Wild Bill Smith. He seemed to have overplayed his hand in the Johan deal, and we ended up with players who really aren't all that good. Neither of the three packages looks all that great now, but since I write for the Internet (presumably out of my mother's basement) I can second guess anyone and everyone. Gomez was exciting for about one game, then became frustrating. Humber didn't look so hot in the minors, but Mulvey looked decent. The Red Sox package would have been good, Lester has been a hell of a pitcher, but Ellsbury, like Gomez, started off hot and seemed to really flame out. I didn't look up any numbers on him, but I'm pretty sure he is platooning with Coco Crisp now. I would probably be more excited if the Twins had started Gomez in AAA, or sent him down earlier this summer when it became apparent that he was totally over-matched at the plate. I still support the Garza trade because the Twins finally showed willingness to part with one of their 35 good, young pitchers for some hitting. Young still has tons of upside (he is only 22) and really hasn't been all that bad this year. He started off slow, but has been playing well in the second half. The way the twins draft and scout players we can replace Garza. It would be a shocker if we developed a talented hitter in our system, its just not how we roll.

Is it totally unfair to blame individual players for being bad? Probably. Most of that can be traced back to the coaching staff, who stuck with terrible players for too long. Consistently using Guerrier down the stretch even though it was pretty obvious he was unreliable? I guess it isn't his fault Gardy kept calling his name. Sticking with Livan (who was named "Ace" of the first half for the team by MLB.com, because he had 10 wins) for several months too long, again not his fault. Is he supposed to call up Bill Smith and say "I'm pretty terrible at my job, you should fire me"? If only it were that easy.

Thoughts? Who else is to blame? Ozzie Guillen? Me? The people wearing pink Nick Punto jerseys (who can be blamed for pretty much every problem worldwide)?

The Long Ball Streak Ends, Along With All Hope

2008-09-16T00:00:00-07:00

Last week we were talking about the Achilles heel of the Twins' pitching staff (one of them, anyhow) -- the home runs.

At the time, we'd given up 155 HR, ranking 12th in the AL. The worry was that our weakness perfectly complements the White Sox' strength, and that that harms us significantly.

Evidently, someone in the Twins clubhouse was listening, because they've really gone out of their way to prove that our fears were warranted.

In the third inning of the second game on Saturday, Perkins gave up a three run home run to Salazar. On Sunday, we gave up 7 runs on 5 homers to the Orioles (Salazar, Markakis, and Montanez). On Monday, we gave up 3 runs on 2 homers to the Indians (Shoppach and Choo). Then on Tuesday, the first four runs we gave up against the Indians were on two home runs (Garko and Cabrera). The streak finally ended in the third inning on Tuesday when a Punto error moved a runner to third and a Liriano wild pitch let the run in.

So, over the course of under four games, we gave up 17 consecutive runs via the home run (on 10 homers). And the only thing that managed to finally end the long ball pain was the Twins' other major weakness -- defense. (Team defensive efficiency of .694, 20th in baseball.)

Mark this moment. 7:10 PM, Central Time. The Twins are down 8-1 in the 3rd to the Indians and the White Sox are up 4-1 in the 4th over the Yankees.

To quote Dick Bremer: "... one of the most unsightly innings of the year." Indeed. It's fitting. Almost poetic.

This precise moment may be the end of the Twins' dreams of contention in 2008. The 17 consecutive runs via the home run aren't the reason for the end -- they just irrefutably demonstrate why the end came.

It was nice while it lasted. And now that the pressure's off, maybe the Twins can start hitting and/or pitching and/or defending like major leaguers again. It's gotten too much like watching the Vikings, and I for one can only tolerate that wretched experience once per week.

Do the Twins get homesick?

2008-09-16T00:00:00-07:00

Seriously. These are grown men. How is it that they are completely unable to win a game on the road? They have lost 10 of their last 15 road games. This is a very winnable division and the Twins have not taken advantage. It seems like nobody wants to win. The complete mismanagement of the bullpen by Ron Gardenhire (see I used his full name, that means he is in trouble) is unacceptable for a manager during a pennant race. I don't care if people thought we would be terrible when predictions came out in march, it is September and we are in it. There can be no "well, it was a nice run while it lasted" or "we're playing with house money now" mentality. If this team can get into the playoffs, I know they probably don't stand a chance BUT it will give our young pitchers the big game experience they need. Can you imagine if we have a real rotation and lineup for the entire season next year? No more Lamb, Monroe, Everett, Hernandez, etc. And our rotation will be playoff tested. While this may contradict what I just said, it will be nice for our pitchers to pitch in meaningful games in September, but it would be even better for them to win those meaningful games and get to the playoffs.

Whoever wins the division will almost certainly start on the road against the winner of the AL east. Both of those teams are very tough, that is why we need to get at least some momentum going in. LaVelle mentioned the tie breaking scenarios the other day on his blog and none of them sound appealing. In fact, I think there is only one. We play a one game playoff against the White Sox in Chicago. That would be terrible. Turrible.

Having Michael Cuddyer back helps, but people forget he was pretty worthelss before he got hurt. I do not think he deserves to be slotted into the starting lineup everyday just because there are lots of people who have Michael Cuddyer t-shirt jerseys who come to games once a week. His ability to do magic notwithstanding I think he should DH against lefties (like he did last night) and pinch hit. Hopefully that is Gardy's plan for him. Depending on how his foot is I might rotate him into the OF when someone needs a day off, but I like how everyone is playing. Gomez has been lost at the plate but you can't deny he is very valuable defensively out there.

We are approaching our windmill point (that is a back to the future 3 reference, meaning point of no return) where every game is a must win. We can't hope for the white sox to lose. We need to continue winning on this road trip and AT LEAST win 2 of 3 from them next week when we play. Hopefully we will be within 2 games when this happens. It seems like we have been within 2 games for about 6 weeks, so at worst we need to set it up so a sweep or 2 out of 3 puts us in first. Leading by 4 games would be nice, but I don't see it happening. Go Twins!

Will Cabrera Keep Struggling?

2008-09-12T00:00:00-07:00

Today JoeC points out a nice little tidbit about the starter the Twins are facing today:

The Twins will face Daniel Cabrera, who continues to struggle with his control and has showed diminished velocity in recent starts. Consider this: Cabrera has issued 85 walks this season. You can combine three Twins starters — Kevin Slowey (19), Nick Blackburn (31) and either Scott Baker (36) or Glen Perkins (36) — and only get 86.

Of course, that means Cabrera will go 7 innings, with 11 K's and between 0 and 2 BB's. After all, he does have quite a history of murdering the Twins, and the Twins have a history of ignoring an opposing pitcher's weaknesses and attempting to beat their strengths.

Glad We Chose Eddie Over Hawkins and Bradford?

2008-09-12T00:00:00-07:00

Given the continuing struggles of the bullpen, I think it's about time to look back at the one bullpen acquisition we made versus the ones we passed up. At the time, we passed on both Latroy Hawkins and Chad Bradford (to my chagrin), and we picked up Eddie Guardado (also to my chagrin).

Here's what it looked like at the time:

Hawkins: 23/17 K/BB, 42 H in 41 IP Bradford: 2.45 ERA, 1.19 WHIP in 40 IP Guardado: 28/17 K/BB, 38 H in 49 IP

We passed on both Hawkins and Bradford before Eddie showed up on the waiver wire and we pounced.

And what have they done since then?

Hawkins: 19/3 K/BB, 5 H in 13 IP, 0.00 ERA Bradford: 0.69 ERA in 13 IP Guardado: 11 H, 5 ER in 3 IP, for a whopping 13.50 ERA and 3.6 WHIP

Now tell me: Aren't you glad we picked Guardado over Hawkins and Bradford? At the very least, he's taking the strain off our overworked bullpen, right? Those 3 IP have been pretty valuable -- especially since we have to pull him and put in someone else to put out his fire every time. His WHIP is 3.6!!! Are you kidding me?

The stats guys were right about this one.

Just Don't Give Up a Grand-Slam-And-A-Half!

2008-09-11T00:00:00-07:00

Well, the mystery of the Disappearing Bullpen Help may have been solved. As recently discussed in the comments over on our last post, Gardenhire claims that he's looking for a spot to put Mijares into a game, but can't find one.

Twins manager Ron Gardenhire is trying to find a spot to get a look at lefthander Jose Mijares. The ninth inning last night seemed to be a good time, but the manager - with memories of several blown leads this season fresh in his mind - didn’t want a situation where Mijares gave up a couple runs and force him to warm up Joe Nathan. “Six runs is not that big of a lead in this league,” he said.

Oh, that's right. Six runs ahead just isn't enough of a lead. He might give up a few runs, in which case we'd have to use one of our better relievers who are all overworked. We wouldn't want to do that. Instead, we'll just use our better relievers who are all overworked. Problem solved!

So. Six runs ahead is too close. Obviously, Mijares and Humber aren't coming into a game closer than that. That leaves the only possibility of these young relievers getting any work is if we're being blown out. And if we're losing by a lot, it stands to reason that we wouldn't want to prevent the other team from scoring -- oh no, we wouldn't want to attempt a comeback and actually try to win a game! It's much more important to just give up and prepare for the next day!

I can understand why Gardy would only want to bring these guys in in a blowout. That's fine. (At first, until they demonstrate what they can do against big league hitters.) But ... I don't understand why we have to be losing big in order to see what they've got. Are we afraid he'll give up the rare Grand-Slam-and-a-Half?

1 day, 1.5 games

2008-09-10T00:00:00-07:00

After being swept in a doubleheader by the red-hot Blue Jays the White Sox sit just one game above the Twins with 18 games to go. This is a huge morale boost. The White Sox face Roy Halladay and he is awesome. Also, Paul Konerko went down with what looked like a serious injury, I usually don't wish harm upon other players, but the White Sox hardly consist of "players", more like 25 "satan incarnates" and its OK to wish harm upon satan incarnate. With Quentin formally out for the season, and Konerko probably done for most of the year, the Twins probably had their best 24 hours all season. It is important that we just keep focusing on our own games. I get the feeling that on that road trip (and the tigers series) the team focused too much on what the Sox were doing, and not enough on what the Twins were doing. As hard as it is to do, its time to put the blinders on. We have no control over what the White Sox do (until we play them). They are now relying on Ken Griffey, Jr. to be an impact bat in their lineup, which is something no team should have to do. The man is old, and I think they were expecting him to pick up some slack for the stretch run, not carry the offense.

The Twins have a stretch of six games (including last night) against the Royals and the O's, so hopefully we play like we did last night for all six of them. I still don't trust the bullpen, but playing weak lineups should allow our starters to get into the 7th inning, thus minimizing how often we have to use worthless Reyes and/or Crain. I still don't get why Gardy isn't using the September call-ups. Last night for example, we are up by 5, why bring in a terribly overworked Jesse Crain instead of Humber or someone else? Its a relatively low-leverage situation (I guess five runs isn't a huge lead) and the Royals have a very weak lineup, perfect for a young pitcher to face.

The Twins have an off-day before they start that crucial series against the Sox in a few weeks, so hopefully we will use that to our advantage. Apparently having that off-day at home on Monday helped the team immensely. It should be a fun next few weeks, Go Twins!

More Bullpen Meltdowns - I Thought Help Had Arrived?

2008-09-08T00:00:00-07:00

The Twins evidently missed the memo informing them that The RNC Road Trip is over, meaning that they can stop blowing leads late in the game. Over the weekend we blew two more games to the Tigers and let a series victory get away.

Not surprisingly, the two meltdowns were the work of the bullpen, once again. And it was the usual suspects. On Saturday, Reyes and Guerrier each gave up two run homers before Crain and Breslow came in to finish the game. On Sunday, Breslow came in to give up a hit (without recording an out) before Boof came in to give up some runs and Guardado and Nathan finished off the loss.

But both times, I was left confused. For the entire road trip, and for several weeks leading up to it, all we heard about was how much the bullpen has been overworked. They're so overworked, in fact, that Rick Anderson can't even take them aside between games to work on stuff and try to fix what's ailing them. They're just exhausted from overuse and have been struggling to get the job done any more.

Oh woe is us, for surely there's nothing to be done about that! Right? Except, of course, for the September 1 call up of Bobby Korecky, Phil Humber, and Jose Mijares. In close games this weekend, Gardy chose to put in overworked and underperforming Reyes/Guerrier/Crain into tough spots in which they have consistently failed all season (and especially lately) rather than try something new, perhaps to inject some life into the team and at the very, very least give the more experienced and talented members of the bullpen some valuable rest. Which would then allow them to stay fresh for the rest of the month (perhaps beyond?) and to -- importantly -- get some work in between outings with Anderson.

On Saturday, when Reyes came in, my immediate question was "Why does this situation warrant a walk and a hit?" The home run, of course, rendered my fear moot. Then Guerrier followed, as did Crain and Breslow ... and I was left wondering what happened to Korecky and Humber. What's the worst that could possibly happen? We lose the game? Well, what actually happened was worse -- we lost the game and the top of our bullpen got even more overworked.

On Sunday, it was more of the same. Why are Boof and Eddie pitching when Korecky and Humber are ready to go? What's the worst that could happen? We lose the game? Well, that actually happened again.

It's folly for me to sit here and say that different moves would have worked out differently and we would have won the games. And Gardy's reasoning for bringing in Reyes and Guerrier was "solid," in that Granderson and Ordonez hadn't hit well against them. However, for weeks now, he's been using that same "solid" reasoning, and Reyes, Guerrier, Crain, Guardado, and Bonser have been failing. Repeatedly, and without signs of stopping. At some point, it must be time to re-evaluate and come up with some different reasoning. The kind that involves giving your bullpen some rest and giving Korecky and Humber some work. The very worst that could happen is that the results stay the same.

But, on this off day, consider this: The last time the Twins had lost a series at home was the beginning of June, immediately before getting swept by the White Sox -- followed, of course, by two consecutive months of great baseball that kept us right in the hunt all summer. If (recent) history repeats itself, the Twins will find a way to figure out these problems and get back to their winning ways at exactly the right time.

The point is: Never get too far down. It can turn around in an instant.

In This Time of Losing, Could an MVP Emerge?

2008-09-05T00:00:00-07:00

Today, Rob Neyer went over his list of potential American League MVP candidates. He's obviously a big Red Sox guy (he does, after all, work for ESPN ... and I think being a Red Sox fan is as helpful to employment there as being a no-power, no-plate-discipline middle infielder is to employment by the Twins).

So his conclusion? Dustin Pedroia!

A-Rod's not going to win the award, for any number of reasons. Hamilton's fallen off everyone's radar since the All-Star Game. Cabrera hasn't been on anyone's radar since April. Same for Sizemore, who might actually be having the best season of them all. It looks to me like there are only three viable candidates: Pedroia, Quentin and Morneau. Except we've got some breaking news: Quentin's season is probably over. In terms of the MVP, it is over. Which leaves only Pedroia and Morneau. And with Pedroia's Red Sox having a significantly better chance of reaching the playoffs than Morneau's Twins, at this moment Pedroia's the No. 1 candidate.

Morneau is the only player that he didn't even bother to offhandedly dismiss, only stating that the Twins are, compared to the vaunted, awesome Red Sox, pretty crappy. But the thing is ... I think he underestimates the Twins' chances of making the playoffs.

Despite having played terribly on the RNC Road Trip, we're still only a game and a half back. I know everyone's really down on our chances right now (I know I am), and that 1.5 seems like a whole lot more -- but think about it from the White Sox' perspective. They saw we had this long road trip and it was their chance to put some distance between us and them. We played about as badly as possible during the trip ... and we're still right behind them. I talked to some White Sox fans today (an "advantage" of living in Chicago), and they continue to be terrified of the Twins while at the same time really worried that they couldn't get more of a lead. And that's without considering the loss of Quentin. So let's not call the AL Central race over just yet. We're not Fox News here.

But secondly, even if the Twins do manage to make it to the playoffs ... could Morneau actually be an MVP candidate? Here's how his numbers stack up against Pedroia:

Morneau: .311/.388/.516, 21 HR, 109 RBI, 40 2B, 85 R, 142 OPS+ Pedroia: .333/.378/.505, 17 HR, 76 RBI, 44 2B, 110 R, 127 OPS+

I don't see how Pedroia's numbers get him an MVP over Morneau if both teams make it to the playoffs. They're quite simply ... not as good. The runs and RBI come pretty close to evening out, and are mostly a function of where they bat in the lineup. I'll take 4 more HR over 4 more 2B. And a higher OBP and SLG lead to an even higher OPS+ than Morneau had in his MVP 2006 season.

I still don't think Morneau has a great case for MVP, but this season neither does anyone else. And Morneau's just about our only offensive weapon -- the same cannot be said for Pedroia. And there's still some season left to play, before we get to see the National Media (located in Boston) invent an MVP award for one of their own.

The first step, though, is to make the playoffs. It's time to right that ship, starting tonight. Go Twins.

Heartbreaking Loss, but There's a Silver Lining: Fire Gardy Stat Grabber!

2008-08-31T00:00:00-07:00

Last night Nathan blew another save, and got the loss when he threw a ball past Harris and allowed the tying and winning runs to score, turning a 2-1 lead into a 3-2 walkoff loss.

That's two walkoff losses in the last three games. Unacceptable.

And it wasted another great start by Liriano, who had yet another chance to pitch us back into first. (By the way, does it seem to anyone else that every time he pitches, we're 1/2 game out?)

But I don't want to talk about that today. If you look to the right side of the page, you should see something new: Nick Punto's stats are displayed in the sidebar.

That's part of a new program we've added to Fire Gardy, called (creatively) the "Fire Gardy Stat Grabber." It reaches out to Baseball-Reference.com and downloads the stats for a player and displays them on any Wordpress blog. So if you want to put someone's stats on your own blog, head over to the Fire Gardy Stat Grabber page and download it.

More importantly ... I don't know if we want to just display Punto's stats. When we opened the doors here at Fire Gardy, my co-founder FunBobby came up with the idea of showing Punto's stats on the site as a tribute to his still getting playing time despite a lack of ability. The thing is ... he's producing about as well as could be hoped. As you can see, he's currently got a 100 OPS+, which is more than adequate from a utility infielder.

So! We should probably display some other players on here. Who should go on there? (Major limitation: Hitters only for now.)

Delmon Young? Adam Everett? Denard Span? Carlos Gomez? Torii Hunter?

I'll take any suggestions and decide who gets the honor of having their stats displayed on the sidebar. And we can have any number of players over there, there's no limit.

And now, hopefully we can score some runs today and save a split against the lowly A's.

The Human Element

2008-08-30T00:00:00-07:00

As I'm sure everybody knows by now, Instant Replay is now a part of baseball. After the umpires managed to repeatedly find themselves unable to determine whether a ball went over the fence or not (really?), the outcry got loud enough that everyone (except the umpires) wanted to do something to make sure the calls get made correctly. So the umpires grudgingly obliged, and will now go through a ridiculously convoluted and mysterious process to review calls. I have a few problems with Instant Replay as it was implemented.

The replay will not be shown at the stadium, meaning that the fans, players, and managers will be completely in the dark as to what the umpire may or may not have seen to overturn the call. If there's a questionable home run call and you're sitting around for a few minutes wondering what happened, does it fill you with confidence when the umpire appears from behind the curtain and says "Yes, it was a home run after all. Trust me. Oh yeah, game over, you lose." If you'd seen the video, there's at least the chance that you could be non-homerish and see that the call was right (or that the umpire is still wrong).
Replay will be used only at the umpire's discretion. Managers cannot "challenge" plays (much to the amusing chagrin of Lou Piniella), they can only "request" a review, and the umpires are free to deny this request. Basically, if the umpires think they got the call right, it won't be reviewed -- and the umpires always think they're right. Is anyone confident now?
Questioning the decision of the umpire results in summary ejection. Normally I wouldn't have a problem with this rule -- arguing with the results of the review should result in ejection, because it's pointless and delays the game and they're obviously not going to review it again and re-reverse a call. But consider it in the context of the previous two bullets: The managers and players haven't seen the replays, so they don't know what happened; if questioning the umpires results in summary dismissal, then I'd expect it to happen often when a call goes against a manager and he doesn't know why. Secondly, the managers can't "demand" a review, they can only "request;" if they are too forceful, they can be ejected. This is going to be pretty farcical.
The system relies on its enemies to carry out the plan competently and effectively; the umpires don't want replay, and it was forced on them. All they have to do to make it a "failure" is to do a bad job: refuse to review questionable calls, refuse to overturn calls that they thought were right on the field, offer no visibility into their decisions, eject players and managers for "arguing" about replay, et cetera. If the umpires don't buy into the system, there needs to be an authoritative person/committee above them to administer replays and override the dubious authority of the umpires.

Obviously, there are going to be some problems with Instant Replay, and I really hope they're not too bad, because an anti-Replay backlash could go a long way toward preventing a fix to the true problem: Instant Replay doesn't go far enough.

When Ryan Howard beats out a grounder with two outs late in a tie game, scoring a run to take the lead -- oh wait! The umpire incorrectly called him out so the runner doesn't score and the Phillies lose. This has clear and immediate implications on the playoffs in the NL East and Wildcard.

AJ Pierzynski stupidly runs from second to third on a grounder to short -- after a brief rundown he turns his head, reaches out to slap a defender, and falls over as if he'd been tackled. The umpire calls "obstruction" and awards him third base. Men on first and third with one out is a whole lot different than a man on first with two out -- the White Sox won two batters later, which has clear and immediate implications on the playoffs in the AL Central, East and Wildcard.

But the AJ Obstruction Scandal gets even more delicious. The umpire in question was Doug Eddings, who as a general rule does nothing but get calls wrong. (If he's umpiring, you can be sure that both teams are going to get screwed regularly; the guy just never seems to know what he's doing.) After the game, Eddings was shown a replay of the play, and he immediately thought he'd made a mistake:

Mike Port, MLB's vice president of umpiring, told the St. Petersburg Times on Thursday that it was "a missed call" and that in making the split-second decision, Eddings thought he saw runner A.J. Pierzynski "impeded more than he was" by Aybar, the Rays' third baseman. "Looking back at that occurrence, for the first and last time, it was a missed call," Port said. "And it was not because Doug Eddings, an umpire with 10 years' experience and 10 before that in the minor leagues, didn't know the application of the rule, but just that in the moment in applying the rule, he saw something he thought was more than it turned out to be."

If only there was something we could do to get calls like that right, so the winners of games -- and perhaps the teams in the playoffs -- are decided by the play on the field rather than the umpires. Perhaps Instant Replay should apply to more than just boundary calls, but to questionable mistakes made by umpires?

Most of the commentary I've heard about this question goes back to "The Human Element." On Fox's "Crappy Hour Before the Game Starts" segment on Saturday afternoon, that irritating woman who sits next to Mark Grace said "I'm old fashioned, and I'm all about the Human Element. Why do we need replay at all?" What is the Human Element, and why do people think it's a good thing?

Umpires make the wrong call, unfairly benefiting one player or team over his opponent, and this is accepted because ... ? Status quo? To err is human? Mistakes are acceptable? Since when is minimizing the importance of the players and their feats on the field in favor of decrees by masked bureaucrats an American Tradition?

Bud Selig insists that Instant Replay will never be more than boundary calls, adding that he hates technology and just got a computer last year. Congratulations, Bud, but you're supposed to be the Commissioner of Major League Baseball, a $7 billion company, not the Commissioner of The Association for Troglodytic Luddite Baseball Fans. Don't brag about the fact that you're trying to run the show while being unable to figure out your email program -- especially when Eric Hosmer might lose his contract because the Commissioner's Office was communicating with the Pirates ... and apparently are incapable of receiving two phone calls (or emails) at once. Selig doesn't need to pander to his base of technology-fearing old people -- he should probably be trying to popularize the game among a younger demographic that is comfortable with technology and has plenty of disposable income. But I digress -- I shouldn't let Bud Selig's deliberate and malicious incompetence distract me. This is about baseball. About the integrity of the game. And about the umpires ruining that integrity by consistently making the wrong call.

The calls should be right. Umpires have an increasingly difficult job -- parks get bigger, smaller, more unique; players get bigger and faster, they hit and throw harder than ever. An umpire can't reasonably be expected to have 100% accuracy on a call determined by milliseconds and fractions of an inch -- especially when he's looking at it from hundreds of feet away. If there were some technology that would aid the umpires in making correct calls such that the players determine who wins, how can that possibly be worse than allowing the umpires to stubbornly stick with what has "always worked?"

The Human Element. Stubbornness. Caring more about job security than competence. Why idolize this stupid behavior.

Fix Instant Replay: Make it separate from and above the umpires, and use it for everything.

The Human Element? The players are already human.

(Now someone please print this out so Bud Selig and the rest of The Association for Troglodytic Luddite Baseball Fans -- more commonly known as Major League Baseball -- can figure out how to "read" it.)

Sweepless in Seattle

2008-08-28T00:00:00-07:00

I'm 100% sure I stole that headline from somewhere, but in my defense I haven't read any of the papers this morning.

That was as close to a must win game as we've had all year. The white sox were playing a terrible team, so you can't assume they will lose. Perkins didn't look great, but he was effective and kept us in the ballgame. We got some great timely hitting late in the game, which is what has carried this team all year.

As much as I hate to say it, Gardy did a good job managing towards the end of the game. Granted, most of the moves were fairly obvious, but they all worked out. The two pinch hitters and the two pinch runners. Also, if one of those moves wasn't made and you had Kubel in right in the 8th, that throw doesn't get made, and the game is tied or worse.

The white sox did end up getting pounded, leaving us 1 game back in the AL central (2.5 in the WC) with 28 games to go. This is an exciting time of year to be a baseball fan. Lets stick it to the A's this weekend.

Seattle Rains on Ruiz's Parade

2008-08-27T00:00:00-07:00

It was supposed to be a happy day for Randy Ruiz.

Ruiz was named the International League Rookie of the Year for his stellar performance at AAA this year, batting .320/.366/.536 with 17 HR, 33 2B, 68 RBI and 58 R in 111 games played. Pretty good numbers ... though the concept of a 30 year old winning Rookie of the Year tickles me more than a little.

After finding this out, Ruiz went on to hit his first major league home run, an opposite field line drive. He soaked in the moment while rounding the bases, not showing too much emotion after the home run. (My thought: he was disappointed it was only a solo shot, after Morneau drove in a non-RBI with a double play with men on first and third right before Ruiz batted.)

But Ruiz didn't get to celebrate much, because the Twins lost again, extending their ill-timed losing streak to four games, and assuring a series loss to the lowly Mariners. Baker claimed he had the best stuff he's had in a while, though from where I sat it didn't look like he had much command and the Mariners were belting line drives all over the field. Poor defense and a complete lack of hitting combined to waste Baker's quality start, and the Twins fell, 3-2, to put a sour taste into the mouth of Ruiz and all of us fans.

I don't know what to say about this, really. We've been barely managing to squeak out victories against the Mariners (when we do even manage to beat them), and when the Mariners go try to play the White Sox the game is over in the second after a 19 home run inning. Every game. Or so. The point is that good teams are supposed to absolutely clobber teams like the Mariners, and the White Sox have been doing a much better job of that than we have.

The Twins are going to have to pull themselves together if they want to avoid falling further than 2 games out of first. This is not the time for a slide.

Communication Breakdown & Clubhouse Leadership

2008-08-26T00:00:00-07:00

In the past, I've talked about Gardy's apparent problems in communicating with his players -- Liriano and Casilla, in particular, have been the victims of this.

But recently a couple of stories have come to my attention that indicate this could be more of a widespread problem -- and not just Gardy's problem, but a clubhouse problem that could stem from a lack of true leadership.

A store about Mike Lamb:

"The energy level wasn't what we expected," Gardenhire said of Lamb. "He's a veteran, a laid-back guy and we play at a different level. We like to run and do all those kinds of things. … We were just looking for a little different thing. That's probably why it didn't work out here." As for the notion that it was his laid-back attitude that prevented him from sticking with the Twins, Lamb said he was never aware it was an issue. "I mean, if it was a problem, I wish someone would have told me," Lamb said. "I would have thrown stuff if I needed to."

Now I'm not a big Lamb Fan. And I think Gardy's probably right in his assessment -- Lamb doesn't seem to fit on this team, personality- or talent-wise. And I doubt he could have "changed" his energy level if that truly were the only issue. But I don't see why he'd lie about not being told about it.

Secondly, I recently heard a story about Matt Garza's arrival in Tampa Bay. Troy Percival came up to him and the conversation went thusly:

Percival: So, are you going to be as much of a jerk here as you were in Minnesota? Garza: I was a jerk in Minnesota? Percival: Um, yeah, everybody knows that! Garza: I had no idea that was my reputation. I wish someone had told me.

This season, Garza has certainly seemed to be a better clubhouse citizen (aside from one altercation with his catcher), but the thing that strikes me most is that both players said the same thing: "I wish someone had told me."

I don't know if it's really Gardy's responsibility to go up to Lamb and tell him to act like Gomez and stop being such an old guy, and I don't know how much if would have helped if he'd told Garza to stop being such an asshole (especially given how much of an asshole Garza was). But it's telling that it wasn't Joe Maddon that talked to Garza, it was Troy Percival, a veteran player who had taken on the role of clubhouse leader.

Are Mauer and Morneau failing in their duty to back up Gardy with player-leadership? I'd have to say it's their responsibility to keep the players in line with this sort of thing, at least to the point where the players in question are aware their attitude is a problem. (And Torii Hunter isn't the missing leader -- he was here when Garza was, and Torii's method of leadership was to call out Joe Mauer for being less than a man for only playing hurt sometimes, rather than point out actual problems, and talked to the media rather than directly to the player. That's bad leadership, as opposed to the non-leadership exhibited by the M&M boys.)

Gardy is Not a "Blog Guy"

2008-08-23T00:00:00-07:00

Recently, Pat Neshek posted on his blog that he's on the Really Really Slow plan and won't make it back this season. Gardy was approached about this, and asked his opinion.

“I’m not a blog guy,” he said. “I’ll let the trainers and doctors tell me, rather than the blog guys."

I can only presume he went on to say: "After all, whoever wrote that lives in his mom's basement and isn't good at anything." He became even more confused when informed that Neshek actually wrote it, and that anyone is allowed to have one. Even, perhaps, trainers and doctors.

In all seriousness, though, his stance makes sense. Neshek isn't an expert, and he actually did go on to mention that Casilla also thought he'd be out for the season when he went down, and quickly changed his tune when things started to go well. The point isn't that Neshek will be back in two weeks like Casilla was -- rather, that statements like "I can't make it back this year" are almost always made at the depths of despair and pain, and are not objective. Trusting the opinions of the trainers and doctors (and Neshek's arm, not his head) is obviously what the manager should do.

A Creative Solution to the Bullpen Problems

2008-08-20T00:00:00-07:00

The recent problems with the Twins' bullpen have been well documented, and we have our own opinions about what should be done about it. Apparently, though, the Twins have different ideas.

What's the solution to an overworked bullpen?

A smaller bullpen!

That's right. In order to make room for Casilla, the Twins passed over the obvious move (DL/DFA Everett) and chose another much-needed move -- Brian Bass has been outrighted to Rochester. (Shockingly, he cleared waivers!)

What this means is that we'll be going with an 11 man pitching staff for a while -- and that the starters are going to need to pick up their game and start getting deeper into games, and that the offense is going to have to start scoring and giving us more blowouts.

Now, perhaps this is just step one, the second step being: DL/DFA Everett and call up Korecky (this would have to happen before 8/31, because I can't imagine the Twins plan to set their playoff roster with an undermanned bullpen). And Gardy did say that another pitcher is "just a phone call away."

But the fact that Gardy took the time to point out how well Randy Ruiz has been swinging the bat sends an ominous message. We're not going to get bullpen help until/unless Ruiz stops hitting, and we're going to have to live through more Adam Everett and the Amazing Shrinking Arm (and Bat, and Glove ... Ouch).

I don't know. Part of me is happy -- no more Brian Bass. Another part of me is confused -- I thought we had an overworked bullpen ... this doesn't seem to solve that. We'll see how this works out.

Roster Moves and Road Trip

2008-08-18T00:00:00-07:00

With Casilla due back later this week, Gardy will have some interesting decisions to make when constructing his lineups for the rest of the season. I'm assuming Casilla will become the everyday second baseman, and Gardy has said "Nicky will be in the mix at short". Great, we will be rotating between Adam Everett and Nick Punto as our starting SS. That is just terrible. At least with Casilla coming back we won't have a black hole in the number 2 spot anymore. It looks like Harris will be the odd man out, and only get playing time at third base against lefties. This makes Mike Lamb even more of the odd man out because he will probably never play.

In order to clear a spot for Casilla on the roster who will get sent down? My money is on Ruiz because I feel that Gardy uses "last in first out" logic when sending people down. Do we have any outfielders on the bench. Assuming Kubel is the DH, the answer is no. Will Nick Punto see time in the OF if one of Span-Gomez-Young gets hurt, ejected, (or killed, remember we are going to oakland)? Or will Gardy revert to his fear of losing the DH and keep Kubel on the bench to have a spare outfielder? I guess this is only a problem for a few weeks because rosters expand on Sept 1. However, playoff rosters are locked in on Aug 31 I believe. So if we make the playoffs (knock on wood) will we do it with only three oufielders, with the 4th being our starting DH? This all also assumes Cuddyer will not come back from his foot injury, or if he does he won't be effective. If he does come back and is useful, there won't be a real problem.

This road trip coming will really show if we are a real contender. If we play the LA like we did seattle, we will lose. We basically need our starters to go 7-8 innings because outside of Nathan, I don't trust anyone in the bullpen. Is the front office going to try to get to the roster expansion date without making any moves (and by moves I mean call up Bobby Korecky)? I think that would be a mistake. I say when Casilla comes back, cut Bass loose and bring up Korecky. I don't think there is anyway we don't send down Ruiz to clear a spot for Casilla, I don't agree with it but I'm sure that is the move they are going to make. I for one would like to get rid of Lamb, but the twins seem to live by the policy "If we are paying him, he stays on the team. Not matter how terrible he is".

What moves does everyone think need to be made to sruvive the last month and a half of this season?

The Limestone Monster, and More Dopiness from Gardy

2008-08-17T00:00:00-07:00

Wrigley has the ivy covered brick walls, Fenway has the green monster, and the Metrodome has the unsightly baggy. Well, the new Twins stadium will have a distinctive feature on the outfield wall as well -- the Limestone Monster.

The wall will apparently be in right field, and will jut out over the field. Get ready for some amusing bounces, and some significant home field advantage as our left handed (non-Mauer) players bang balls off that thing and opposing right fielders chase the ball around the field.

Personally, I think the best thing about this idea is its distinctiveness. A lot of new stadiums are either too bland or try too hard to be distinctive ... US Cellular Field, for example, is an atrocious blend of a baseball stadium and a county fair. The limestone wall in right, mined from within Minnesota, is the right kind of distinctive.

And it'll be fun to hear Gardy talk about it, after both wins and losses. "Cuddy is used to the baggy, so he's been able to adapt to the rock pretty well." "That was an unusual bounce, and it didn't go well for our boys tonight." "There are some angles out there that are tough if you haven't seen 'em before." Et cetera. Should be a good source of boilerplate dopiness.

Speaking of which ... you didn't think I'd make a post without passing along a bit of Gardy's dopiness, did you? Randy Ruiz has done an admirable job of filling Monroe's (admittedly small) shoes, despite a lack of extra base hits or walks in the majors yet. He's batting .333/.333/.333, in a very small sample size. What does Gardy think?

"We needed someone to hit a lefty, he's done that. ... I like having him around, because he will swing. He's not afraid to swing," Gardenhire said.

Oh yes. The one thing this team has been lacking is another free swinger. Too much Mauer, not enough Delmon and Gomez, that's what I always say! He's not afraid to swing? Since when did the Twins have a problem with swing-fear? Gomez and Young have topped the list of "swinging at the first pitch" and "swinging at pitches out of the zone" all season ... if anything, the Twins need another hitter who's willing to take pitches, work the count, draw walks, and make the pitcher actually put a ball over the plate. More Mauers and Spans.

Oh well. I'm still rooting for Ruiz (and I wish he'd smack a homer sooner or later). And I really appreciate the dopiness. Keep it coming Gardy!

Bullpen Woes -- And What to DO

2008-08-07T00:00:00-07:00

An interesting stat just popped up in my daily email from Baseball Prospectus:

Top 5 Most Helpful AL Relievers, by Inherited Runs Prevented Player, Team, Inh Runs Prevented Grant Balfour, TBA, 5.1 James Johnson, BAL, 3.6 Jonathan Papelbon, BOS, 3.5 Bobby Korecky, MIN, 3.2 Joel Peralta, KCA, 3.2

Wow. Korecky really got the job done in his brief time in the majors. That's an impressive stat considering he only pitched 10.1 innings in 9 games.

Maybe ... just maybe ... he'd be a better fit for the club than Boof or Bass. (By the way, considering the fact that Boof never plays anyway, would we really lose much if someone took him on waivers? And it's his fault that Crain and Guerrier are about to die -- they can't pitch in every game, Gardy!) Also Breslow. Why isn't Breslow pitching? Because he's left handed?

Why are left handed starters valuable but left handed relievers can only face one batter before hitting the showers? Especially since Breslow is better against righties than lefties. Consider ...

vs righties: .185/.313/.204 in 64 PA vs lefties: .238/.273/.310 in 44 PA

So ... why does he face one guy per week? Those are Neshek numbers. We're lacking a certain Neshek. Why not let this guy try to get people out, rather than sending Crain and Guerrier out to try to keep their arms connected to their shoulders or Bass to try and keep the other team from scoring 10 runs in an inning?

The bullpen is a big weakness right now, and it seems to me that there are a couple of clear upgrades: Korecky and Breslow instead of Boof and Bass, which in turn eases the pressure on Guerrier and Crain. Solves the following problems:

Brian Bass is on our team and has pitched more than any other reliever in the league.
Breslow pitches once per week despite his good numbers and performances.
Korecky escapes from Rochester back to the big club where he can save inherited runs (left on the bases for him by Reyes).
Crain and Guerrier are getting overworked because they're the only non-horrible relievers Gardy is willing to use.
Boof ... continues to take up space in the pen without doing any actual pitching. Oh well.

I don't know about you, but I've had quite enough of these bullpen woes.

Liriano, finally

2008-08-02T00:00:00-07:00

The Twins designated Craig Monroe and Livan Hernandez for assignment yesterday. They were replaced with Randy Ruiz and Francisco Liriano. Ruiz started right away and was the DH. He went 1 for 3, scoring on Mauer's homer. He did have a prodigious strikeout where he swing through three fastballs. He put up good numbers in AAA, and Monroe put up pathetic numbers with the Twins. I have no problem with this move. We needed someone to come in an mash lefties, or just mash in general. Might as well give Ruiz a shot at some ABs. I hope that Kubel still gets the bulk of DH at bats, but it will be nice to have someone who can hit on the bench and not have MIKE REDMOND as our DH against left handed pitching. I don't think Ruiz actually owns a baseball glove, but I don't care.

This Liriano move is also a good one. We replaced a bad player with a better one. Seems like a no brainer, and I think the twins waited too long to make this move. After his first few starts which were quite good, Hernandez was a 5.3 ERA pitcher. For all of may, june, and july, LIVAN WAS A 5.3 ERA PITCHER! That is terrible. I don't like the excuse that he is a veteran presence. We have other veterans, coaches, and advisors, how will the loss of one player who barely speaks english affect team chemistry? If I were on the Twins I would be upset if they continually trotted out a 5.3 ERA pitcher, something that clearly doesn't give us the best chance to win. This move does. We upgraded our rotation and bench in one day. I think the next move is to DFA lamb when cuddyer comes back, but I have a feeling Ruiz will head back to Rochester, unless of course he is playing really well. Then we would have no choice but to DFA Lamb. This all assumes that the current roster stays healthy, which is a big assumption.

Twins 7, White Sox 0

2008-07-29T00:00:00-07:00

It really feels good to beat a division rival. It feels even better to beat a pitcher who has really had our number over the years. It always seems like Mark Buehrle flat out dominates us, much like every other lefty in the league.

I don't think I can say enough good things about Slowey. He flat out dominated the White Sox lineup. Although they all seem to have a terrible average, there are still more good hitters than bad ones in that batting order. In my opinion. He seemed to throw a first pitch strike to every batter. He worked the inside half of the plate very well, something it seems our pitchers don't do. He kept his pitch count very low, his strike to ball ratio was slightly above 2:1, which is great. He averaged about 11 pitches per inning, and never really seemed to be in trouble. It helped that the offense gave him a nice lead in the third inning, but like I said, some of those white sox bats are capable of tying a game with one swing.

I was sitting first row behind the plate last night and noticed that home plate umpire Kerwin Danley was VERY inconsistent. It didn't favor one team or the other, his strike zone was just bad all around. Couple that with the third base ump making an atrocious call on the Dye "homer", and the first base ump calling Casilla safe when Konerko clearly made the tag, it was a bad night for the umpires last night. Considering we will have the same crew for four games, this could get very frustrating.

Good to see the lefties hitting Buehrle well. Span and Morneau had nice homers. On Span's Sox CF Nick Swisher lost his glove over the center field fence while trying to make a leaping grab. A for effort Nick, but you weren't really that close.

The two teams also seemed to play nice with one another. Gardy and Ozzie got in some tussels with the umps over the aforementioned blown calls (at least the one that hurt us was overturned, I'm guessing the officiating crew was not going to overturn two calls in one game) but there was beanball incidents or staredowns over an inside pitch. Good to see that, although I really want to see a baseball brawl live sometime in my life.

Thoughts on the game or the rapidly approaching trade deadline?

The Financial Implications of Livan vs Liriano

2008-07-19T00:00:00-07:00

With Livan Hernandez pitching tonight, the Liriano Situation continues to refuse to get out of my head. Today I want to talk about the financial implications of calling him up versus keeping him down.

Everyone assumes that Liriano is toiling away in Rochester for financial reasons. At first glance, that makes sense for two reasons. One, Livan Hernandez has a "big" money contract, of $5M (though it will shoot to $7M when he hits 200 innings pitched); you can't send him down to the minors or cut him, without "eating" the contract. Two, Liriano's Super-2 status is in question, and if we call him up right now he may hit arbitration a year earlier than we'd otherwise hope -- a pitcher of Liriano's ability would probably demand plenty in arbitration.

First, I'll consider Livan's contract. I hate the concept of avoiding having to "eat" someone's contract. You signed the deal in the offseason. At that point, it's guaranteed, whether Livan wins the Cy Young, gets injured and can't pitch, or sucks and can't pitch. If he'd gotten injured, we'd have to "eat" the contract just as we would if he were incapable of getting people out. The point is, we're paying the money anyway. Forget about it. The goal is to put the best team on the field and win as many games as possible. Livan Hernandez is simply not doing that, and we have an option to replace him. This is a non-reason. The contract has already been eaten.

Second, I'll try to break down Liriano's arbitration situation. Under the rules of the collective bargaining agreement, before a player becomes a free agent, they have three "reserved" years (where they make whatever the team wants to pay them, typically close to the minimum), followed by three "arbitration" years (where the team is expected to pay them what they would otherwise make on the open free agent market, but other teams cannot bid). A player can convert the last reserved year into an arbitration year if he has Super-2 status, which means that he has more than 2 and less than 3 years of service time, and is in the top 17% of service time among other players with between 2 and 3 years of service. Liriano has 2.031 years of service time (since 2007 counted toward his service time despite the fact that he wasn't on the team, which I personally think is a travesty). It is possible, though not guaranteed, that he'll be eligible for Super-2 arbitration at the end of the season. (Contrary to apparently popular opinion, there isn't a "date" on which we can call him up and be guaranteed one way or the other. It depends largely on the amount of service time of other young players in their 3rd year.)

This consideration would affect what it will cost the Twins for the next 4 years of Liriano. Next year could be $400K (if he's reserved), or anywhere from $1M-4M (if he's arbitration-eligible). Also, the arbitrators consider what a player made the previous year, so the more he makes each year in arbitration, the more he'll make the next year. One possibility is that Liriano could cost $400K/$2M/$5M/$8M. Another is that he makes $1M/$3M/$7M/$10M. Obviously these are just guesses, but at the very least gives us a ballpark for discussion. If Liriano has Super-2 status at the end of the season, it could cost the Twins in the ballpark of $5-6M over the course of the next 4 seasons.

But another financial consideration is what it's worth to make the playoffs in any given year. It's extra ticket revenue (all sell-out crowds at higher prices than normal), extra TV revenue (more than a normal game), extra concessions and parking revenue, just all kinds of money. Other people have put the monetary value to a franchise of making the playoffs in any given year at multiple millions of dollars.

Replacing Livan Hernandez (the worst pitcher in the majors, if you measure quality by any of: ERA, K/9, opponent hits, opponent batting average, opponent OBP, opponent SLG, opponent OPS, etc) with Francisco Liriano (very likely above average) could easily be worth a few wins over the course of the second half of the season. It could be the difference between making the playoffs and coming up just short. From a winning-this-year perspective, calling up Liriano is the correct decision. If it helps make the playoffs, calling up Liriano is the correct short-term financial decision also. If the front office is thinking 4 years into the future, calling up Liriano today might not be the correct financial decision -- but it's likely pretty close.

From Baseball Prospectus:

It's hard to believe that Minnesota would hold Liriano back strictly for financial service-time benefit, considering that each marginal win gained over the second half of the season has arguably more value for the Twins than any other franchise, given how the windfall of a playoff berth very much hangs in the balance for them.

The guys at Baseball Prospectus are able to analyze this stuff better than I am, but we seem to be in agreement here. The marginal value of Liriano over Livan, to the Twins, is huge. Also, there is no guarantee that Liriano will stay healthy and dominant over the next 4 years and make all that money in arbitration. I would venture to say, considering all that, that calling up Liriano is the correct financial decision.

From Rosenthal's latest:

"If that (financial motivation) was even a factor, you tell me why we brought him up in April," Smith said. "It was never a factor. When guys are ready, we bring 'em up. With many small-market clubs, it's just the opposite — we get players up here so quickly. They all reach their (service) levels sooner rather than later."

If that were actually true, the alternative is that they think they're doing what's best for the team, winning-wise, both this year and in the future. I don't think there's anyone in the world that would prefer Livan over Liriano. I find it hard to believe that the Twins actually think this.

But given the financial considerations involved, maybe the Twins should factor in financial motivations. Not only from a "minimizing cost" perspective, but also including a "maximizing revenue" perspective in such a way that they see the entire picture. It would make the team better today, and give the organization the best chance to make the most money this year and for the next 4 years.

An interesting twist to this story is that Liriano's agent, Greg Genske, is also Livan's agent. Genske filed a grievance with the players' association that effectively demands that one of his clients be called up to the majors at the expense of another of his clients. I've never heard of this happening before, but it certainly seems that there's some conflict of interest for Genske in this case. He may be doing the right thing for Liriano, but the MLBPA can't be happy about what his actions will do for Livan Hernandez. (That wouldn't matter at all if Genske didn't represent both players.)

Gardy on Liriano, Part I

2008-07-18T00:00:00-07:00

I love it when Gardy gets mad. It doesn't happen often, but when it does, it's just fantastic.

Amid all the hoopla surrounding Liriano lately -- bloggers and national media members ganging up on the "Seriously, Livan over Liriano?" bandwagon, Liriano filing a grievance, all the hand-wavy "calculation" of service time -- Gardy has blown his top. It's all just too much for the guy. After all, the team is only a game and a half back ... which means it's perfect!

"I'm a little bit tired of that stuff. We have a good team here. We are a game-and-a-half out, I come back into town, and we want to talk about the guy in Triple-A."

The guy in AAA?! It's Francisco Liriano, good sir. In case you don't remember, his nickname is "The Franchise" and he sparked the incredible run in 2006 ... when he outpitched The Great Johan Santana repeatedly and consistently. He dominated American League hitters. But to Ron Gardenhire, he's just some guy. In the minor leagues, no less. I mean, who could possibly care about some guy in the minors?

"I just back into town and I hear all this stuff, and Buster Olney is making my team up now and [Genske] wants to tell me who is going to pitch here. No one is going to tell us who to put on our team and no one on ESPN is going to tell us who should pitch for my team. They haven't been here all year. If they had been down there and seen the guy pitch, and then started talking, that's one thing. But to read stats, that's another thing. I recommend they go down there and watch him pitch, come back with a good report for me and walk into my office."

It's not just Buster Olney and Greg Genske who are "telling him" who should pitch. It's everyone in the world who can look at two numbers and play the "which number is bigger than the other number?" game.

But, of course, that game is completely meaningless! They're just looking at STATS, rather than actually being there to see Liriano pitch! Oh, the horror! Clearly, the only people who are allowed to have an opinion about baseball teams or players are the guys sitting in the dugout who see 9 guys playing every day, spitting sunflower seeds, scratching their asses, and cackling wildly while burning ream after ream of witchcrafty stats.

"He was here earlier. How did he do? How did he do?"

Wait a second. Stop right there. Mister Gardy, I have a problem with this. If the only way to have an opinion about a player is to actually see him with your own eyes, how do you have an opinion about the young Liriano? When was the last time you SAW him pitch? Was it, perhaps, the last time he was with the Twins, when he didn't have anything and was terrible? If that's what Gardy is basing his opinions on, he needs to be whacked over the head.

"We have a guy that has 18 homers in Double-A and his agent is going to start calling if we start letting all this happen. You don't let other people dictate what we do."

I doubt his agent will call and demand that he get called up to the majors. That doesn't even make sense. It doesn't even apply, in this conversation about service time and collective bargaining agreements. It's just meaningless. That said, why in blazes is Luke Hughes still at AA? Shouldn't he, perhaps, get the call up to AAA? Is a young third baseman with power REALLY being blocked by Matt Macri? Seems pretty stupid.

That said, I'm pretty impressed that Gardy's even aware that someone's doing well all the way down in AA. Bravo! (Even though he actually only has 15 homers. And nobody has 18. Bravo again!)

...

Now that I've ranted for a bit, it's time for a little glance into the future.

Gardy's pissed now and doesn't seem to remember Liriano and is badmouthing him at every opportunity. Then, in like a week or so, Liriano will get the call and someone will lose their job.

At that point, Gardy will say he's really pleased to have Liriano and he always knew he was amazing and is an important part of the Twins franchise all along. Everyone will forget about that crazy time when Gardy said Liriano sucks and 8-0 with a 2.50 ERA and a million strikeouts and 5 walks are just stats and don't matter at all. That was just Gardy being Gardy.That's why this is "Part I." Eventually there will be a Part II in which Gardy loves Liriano. You just wait.

Liriano Needs to be Called Up

2008-07-17T00:00:00-07:00

The Twins front office seems to be a little confused, regarding its starting pitching situation.

On July 1, assistant GM Rob Antony said:

"We're looking more for the seven, eight innings where he doesn't walk many and he's a little bit more in control of things. When you string three or four of those together, then you're on a pretty good roll."

That was very obviously an excuse to keep Liriano at AAA. Except that since June 20, Liriano hasn't given up a run, and has struck out 24 and walked 3, in 20 innings. Apparently, that's just about what the Twins are looking for, and he must be on a pretty good roll. So he's about to get called up, right?

"We told him it's a two-part thing. He needs to dominate, to pitch better, and then there also has to be a spot, and as long as all these guys are pitching well, we're not just going to create a spot unfairly to someone else."

Oh yeah, there's no room for Francisco Liriano in this rotation, since all our guys are pitching so well! Of course! I mean, it's not like there's a guy in the rotation who has the 44th best ERA in the league (out of 46), and has given up the most hits in baseball, and is in fact on pace to give up the most hits in a season since World War 2. If someone were performing that poorly, then perhaps he could be replaced by one of the best young pitchers in the game who happens to be embarassing hitters at AAA.

No. If you thought that you'd be wrong. I guess.

What's worse, is that the communication between the Twins and Liriano doesn't seem to have improved.

"Francisco is, and has been, frustrated with the lack of direction he's been given by the front office," said Greg Genske, Liriano's agent.

Maybe it's just me, but it might be better to at least try to keep the guy happy. He is, after all, "The Franchise." (And I would think that for an organization that prides itself on clubhouse chemistry, they'd try to keep everyone happy. Rather than single out their most talented players and deliberately screw with them, to the benefit of the worst players in the league.)

Call up Liriano. He's dominating, and he very clearly has "a spot" in the rotation. Livan's. Is this really that hard?

Oh, and in other news, La Velle comes up with an update on Shooter Hunt, one of this year's supplemental first round picks. He's been pitching at Rookie level Elizabethtown, and has been doing fairly well. In 3 starts, he has given up 2 runs in 14 innings. While striking out 28 and walking 2, and giving up just 2 hits.

That's right. 18 K/9. 1.29 BB/9. 1.29 H/9. 0.29 WHIP.

Now that's dominant. Perhaps he's demonstrated that he overmatches the competition, and should be called up to low-A Beloit. We'll see how long it takes the front office to do anything about that.

Twins at the break

2008-07-14T00:00:00-07:00

Well we have reached the all-star break with the twins just 1.5 games behind the white sox. This is surprising because everyone predicted the Twins would be behind not only Chicago, but Cleveland and Detroit as well. The club really benefited from two weeks of beating up the pathetic national league in June. We also have a winning record despite a pretty poor run differential, and Livan Hernandez. He is on pace to have one of the worst seasons by a starting pitcher. I believe he has allowed 1.5 baserunners per inning so far this season. Wow. Also remember Boof made a handful of atrocious starts in the first few months. Despite all these things, we are still in it. Thanks to timely hitting, I believe the Twins lead the AL in batting with RISP.

Some issues I think the team should address for the second half stretch run. Carlos Gomez. I think he needs to be removed from the leadoff spot due to his inability to actually get on base. He doesn't work the count, he doesn't draw walks, he just seems to be a strikeout machine. Not something you want in a leadoff hitter. I say try Casilla there. Next up, Livan. He has 9 wins, but that is pretty meaningless considering the rest of his stats are just plain awful. It seems like the team is OK with that, so then who will be the odd man out when Liriano comes back this month? Perkins maybe? There is also a general consensus that we need another relief arm. I'm not sure what we have in rochester, but I would like to have a power reliever to take some of the late inning workload off of Nathan, Guerrier and Crain. If Liriano takes Perkins' spot, I'm sure they will just move Perkins into the bullpen, but I like him as a starter, not a reliever. Brian Bass is not the answer, he is at besta low leverage situation mop-up man. Not a replacement for Neshek.

There have been rumblings about Adrian Beltre, who I guess is available. He is an OK player, but I don't know if I want him and his 12MM pricetag. Buscher has been playing well and I don't think it will help anything to move him to the bench or back to Rochester.

What else does the team need to do to make a playoff run in the second half? Let's hear (or read I guess) your thoughts.

Wherefore art thou Joe Nathan

2008-07-09T00:00:00-07:00

The twins were in a close game in the late innings last night. Again. Ron Gardenhire failed to use the Twins best reliever in the late innings of a close game. Again. This is a disturbing pattern that needs to stop. Gleeman wrote a pretty good post on this topic this morning and I felt the need to discuss it further.

Why does Gardy feel the need game in and game out to fail to use Nathan unless we are up by 3 or less in the ninth inning. Seems like a dumb idea to use your best reliever (if not best pitcher) in such a narrow scope. I'm not really sure what else to compare this to. Maybe if Tony LaRussa only used Albert Puljos as a pinch hitter against tough lefties. Its a complete waste of talent to use Nathan just to rack up "saves". I'm surprised Gardy doesn't have Nathan pitch three innings every game and finish each season with at least 80 saves. Seems like the save might be that important to him.

On another note, I like the move to pinch hit for Gomez with Kubel against Papplebon. Gomez didn't look to good at the plate all day, but Kubel laid off a good pitch or two that he might have been able to at least hit in the air to score Punto from third. Hopefully he realized all we needed was a sac fly not necessarily a hit. I think when a player comes in as a pinch hitter late in the game like that he tries too hard to hit a homer or something. Just put the ball in the air somewhere in the outfield and tie the game. That way Gardy can mismanage the bullpen for a few more innings and get some other mediocre reliever a loss, but keeping Nathan on the bench in case a "save" situation comes up.

Twins 6 Tigers 3

2008-07-02T00:00:00-07:00

That had to be the most pathetic 6 run outburst I've ever seen. We should have score at least 10 runs. 5 double plays? 21 runners we left on base. 5 by Redmond, 5 by Harris. 4 by Young. That is just downright terrible. Turrrrrible. I just don't get how we had 11 hits off Nate Robertson, and managed to only score 6 runs. Granted this team is average about 1.5-2 runs below that on the season, but I'm sure they also average well under 11 hits a game. Especially against a lefty.

On to the bright spots. The "Rabbits" as Dick Bremer was calling them last night looked good. Gomez, Casilla, and Span combined for 6 hits, a sac bunt, and a stolen base. I guess its better than the Pirhannas, but thats only because I hate Nick Punto and Jason Tyner. Not anything against them personally, they just weren't (or aren't) good at baseball.

Baker looked good, his pitch count was a little high, 100 pitches in 6 innings. I believe he only had about 80 going into the 6th. Giving up two runs while throwing 20 pitches late in a close games doesn't help the cause to stay in another inning. It was a good idea to take him out. I really like the way Baker and Slowey are throwing the ball now. The rotation seems to be shaping up nicely. I'm over counting on Liriano anymore. As far as I'm concerned, this is the rotation we have to ride to a playoff berth. If Bill Smith and the Twins Brain Trust (not to be confused with Kevin McHale and the Timberwolves Band of Idiots) decide to add an effective starter, whether that is Liriano or some other dude, great. If not, I can live with 4 out of 5 guys in the rotation. I think Livan still has SOME trade value, not much, but if it comes down to it, and we need a spot for Liriano I think we have to dump Livan. I think we have had this discussion before, but of all the pitchers on the 25 man roster, Livan is the only one I can safely say is a non-factor for the Twins future. You can say Brian Bass, but he has been an effective middle relief guy who is cheap, so might as well keep him around. Boof is still young and has some value. Livan is just a filler, and I don't think the team ever had any intention of bringing him back next year. Unless of course he put up Johan numbers or something.

Blackburn is up against Bonine (who is a righty) at 12:10 today. Lets go for the series win.

Why was Perkins yanked?

2008-07-01T00:00:00-07:00

In the ballgame last night, Scott Ullger decided to take Perkins out with one on and one out in the 7th. It looked to me like Perkins had settled into a groove and could have gotten two more outs in that inning. Instead, Ullger decided to remove him and bring in Jesse Crain to face Edgar Renteria. He then used a series of several more ineffective relievers. Not sure what he was thinking. Would Gardy have done the same thing? I'm not sure. Thoughts?

Barry Bonds?

2008-06-27T00:00:00-07:00

It has recently come to my attention that Barry Bonds has offered himself to every team in baseball, and says he will play for the minimum salary. Pro-rated $390K. Every team in baseball turned him down.

And he offered to donate that entire salary to purchase tickets for kids, so they can watch the games. It's good to see that someone is thinking of the children!

Of course, I smell a rat here. It was his agent who made these offers, not Bonds himself. His agent is trying to build a collusion case against the MLB, claiming that the owners and GMs have been told by the league not to sign Bonds. By offering Bonds to every team at the minimum, it invalidates the "Well, he's not really worth all that money any more" argument.

Whatever. Good for him. A sports agent is a weaselly lawyer type. What a shocker.

BUT! What if the offer, even if it has such an obvious ulterior motive, were for real? What if some team that would love to upgrade its offense, perhaps the Twins, signed Bonds for the minimum?

Case for Bonds joining the Twins: He walked 134 times last season, and homered 28 times. He's an imposing middle of the lineup hitter and terrifies pitchers even if they're left handed. The right field fence at the Dome isn't very far away. His range in LF isn't much worse than Young's, and he wouldn't foolishly try to dive/slide for balls that he should just catch on the bounce. He could DH, which might keep him fresher. We could DFA/drown Craig Monroe and/or Mike Lamb. Barry Bonds is F'ing good at hitting baseballs. It's pretty much free.

That's a pretty long list, but ...

Case against Bonds joining the Twins: There's no guarantee that he can keep this production up, at age 44, without the use of steroids. He's a monumental douche, who could upset the good clubhouse vibe going on with the Twins right now (seriously, these guys are starting to gel). There isn't enough lycra/polyester in Minnesota to make his hat. I still don't advocate benching Young, even if his replacement is one of the best hitters of all time, since Young needs ABs to improve. I'm a big fan of Kubel and think he should be the every day DH -- Kubel could hit another 15 HR this year ... what could Bonds hit? 20? Also ... there'd be a huge media/fan backlash against the team. And Selig might come and take the team away from Pohlad, sell it to his dog, and contract the team, giving Mauer to the Brewers.

I guess it all comes down to this: Do you think Barry Bonds can help the team win baseball games? And if so, are those wins worth the obvious distraction it'll cause among the team, the fans, and the media?

I try not to judge players based on what they do off the field. So I don't care that Bonds is a big asshole. But I do appreciate what the Twins have going, non-asshole-wise.

I'm really not happy about the steroids thing. I continue to cross my fingers and (naively?) hope that none of the good players on the Twins are steroid-built. (No, Rondell White doesn't count.)

I'm high on Delmon Young and Jason Kubel, and I want them both to play as much as possible.

Those are my reasons the Twins shouldn't sign Bonds.

(By the way Joe Posnanski thinks the Royals SHOULD.)

Putting Lamb's Numbers Into New Light

2008-06-25T00:00:00-07:00

Since Buscher took over the third base job from Lamb, the offense has looked better and the team has been winning. This basically validates my claims over the offseason that the Twins don't need a slew of new stars, they just need to upgrade to average production in a few of the worse spots in the lineup to complement the Mauer/Morneau core.

But Buscher's hitting isn't what I want to talk about today. Rather, it's Lamb's lack of it. Coming into the season, Lamb showed some promise as a guy who could produce a reasonable facsimile of 3B Numbers. He was coming off a few years of hitting 10-12 HR in half a season's worth of ABs, and the hope was that the added consistency of playing every day would make a difference for him.

Instead ... crater. Black hole. The same production as we'd get from Nick Punto, except that Lamb can't pretend to be good in the field.

What happened?

His line drive percentage is 16.7%, down from his career rate of 20.5%. Following this, his BABIP is down to .253. His HR/FB rate is just 1.2%, down from 10.6% last year. (Juan Pierre's career HR/FB is 1.2%.) And 11.6% of his balls in play are infield popups.

He's also seeing fewer pitches per plate appearance, 3.5 vs his typical 3.9-4.1 .

Decreased HR/FB is an indication that a player's bat speed is decreasing; decreased pitches per PA is indicative of lost discipline or plate vision, and may account for the ugliness of his balls-in-play data: he's swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone, and making weaker contact when he does manage to put the bat on the ball.

The same is true of both Gomez and Young, who are among the league leaders in "swinging at balls out of the strike zone," and Young's power/discipline numbers are also worse than expected. What is happening with these new acquisitions?

I don't have any real answers, but my guess is that other teams have this thing called "batting practice," where the players "practice hitting baseballs." The Twins very cutely hold infield practice where they practice the fundamentals of fielding a grounder and throwing it to first base. So when we bring in players from other teams, they stop being able to hit because they don't get to practice any more, they're stuck in a lineup of similarly undisciplined and weak hitters which further drives down their performance, and then the manager gets mad at them because they're bored with doing the same drill that their 8 year old son learned in little league two weeks ago.

It's not Lamb's fault that we signed him. It's not Lamb's fault that he got so much playing time to "prove" that he could live up to his "track record." I would have thought that the "inability to perform at even minimal levels" would have been his fault, but I'm not so sure any more. It's quite possible that Gardenhire just isn't doing anything to help his players hit.

I ask again ... what exactly do the Twins do in practice? Because it's not translating onto the field.

Punto Discovers His Role

2008-06-25T00:00:00-07:00

It appears that Punto's time off has been good for him. He has taken a step back and gotten some perspective on his actual role with the team.

So, now that he's back, what is that role?

"We're playing pretty good. I'll just sit there and try to stay out of it," Punto said. "I'm a hand-shaker tonight." (Near the bottom.)

Excellent. Punto finally understands that his role on this team is not to play, but to hide in a corner and let the other players play. And then shake their hands after they win.

This may be the best thing Punto has ever said or done in his entire career.

What Upgrades Does the Roster Need?

2008-06-23T00:00:00-07:00

Souhan "writes" that the Twins' front office should act now, as rashly as possible in an uncharacteristic fit of short term thinking, to bolster the surprisingly successful roster and make a run at the playoffs despite the fact that this is a rebuilding year.

The first thing I'd like to do is address the setup of his article. Number one, acting rashly is rarely a good idea; isn't that a main criticism of the New York teams? Number two, surprising? Really? The Twins are 40-36, surging over .500 on the wings of a solid winning streak. They've been lurking within a few games of .500 all season. Before the season, they looked a lot like a .500 ballclub with a lot of youth. During the season, they look like a .500 ballclub with a lot of youth. What about this is surprising, exactly? Number three ... what exactly can we do to upgrade at the trade deadline? Are there going to be teams unloading a good-hitting major league shortstop? Do we want to empty the entire farm system for the rights to 2 months of a good starting pitcher? What kind of deal is on the market that would clearly help the team this season, and hopefully not destroy our chances for the future? Can Souhan possibly know this?

That brings me to the second thing I'd like to do. Which is go over his recommendations to the Twins' front office. His sure-fire plan for improving the team. The proven, veteran players that will push this team over the hump and assure a playoff berth. Enough hype, already, let's get to the plan!

Step one: Somehow cancel the Rays trade, and get Garza and Bartlett back.

Reasons this is stupid: Um, you can't do that. So ... that's pretty dumb.

Step two: Trade or release Mike Lamb.

Reasons this is stupid: Actually, it isn't. Lamb should go.

Step three: Bench Delmon Young and call up Denard Span.

Reasons this is stupid: Delmon Young has a lot of talent, despite the fact that he's not using it. He looks increasingly confused by breaking balls out of the strike zone, as if the pitchers should realize that he can't hit them and should simply stop throwing them. He doesn't hustle in the field at all. (Have you noticed that he's about 100 times faster on the bases than in the field? Is his glove that heavy?) It appears that the only reason he's willing to wear a glove is as an excuse to throw the ball as far as he can, regardless of game situation ... or whether he even has the ball (see Sunday, vs Diamondbacks). The point is, Delmon has the tools and should be given the chance to hone them. Find the key to the toolbox, as it were. The other point is ... Denard Span? Sure, he has a 900 OPS in AAA this year, and has recovered admirably from his injury. The game he plays on the field is finally starting to match the game he talks. But Span has never done anything good before, so why are a couple months so impressive? (Of course, it's possible that he's turned the corner, as Buscher seems to have done. Come back in a year, and if Span is still hitting like this then we've got another outfielder on our hands. If not, then it was a good thing we didn't act rashly, no?)

I can't help myself ...

Seriously? Denard F'ing Span?

Step four: Get Nick Punto back and bench Brendan Harris at SS.

Reasons this is stupid: Nick Punto is not a starting position player, he's a utility infielder. If he's playing regularly, it means your starters are either hurt or not performing. Brendan Harris isn't a wizard in the field (although neither is Punto, if you want to be honest about it), but he has a strong arm and can turn a double play (anyone who's seen Punto try to throw the ball knows he's more comfortable playing with the girls on the 60 foot basepaths). Harris has been mired in a bad stretch at the plate, but shows signs of knowing what he's doing -- and he might be turning it around. He's clearly better than Nick Punto, though, who I've decided to describe offensively as "a lot like Mike Lamb, except with head first slides into first base." (If Lamb ever slides into first base, I'm quite certain he will morph into Punto and the two of them will dance with glee as the space time continuum explodes.)

Step five: Have Brendan Harris be the utility infielder and part time third baseman, taking at bats away from Brian Buscher.

Reasons this is stupid: Harris should be the starting SS. But if he isn't, deliberately taking at bats away from the hottest player on the team is pretty boneheaded. Maybe this step of the plan should be "stay the course and be happy that someone finally realized that calling up Buscher and sticking him in the lineup is a good idea."

Step six ... there is no step six. That's it. This is what the front office should do to put the Twins into the playoffs. Mess with promising young bats (Young and Buscher) by jerking around their playing time. Promote inferior players based on having a hot bat in the minors. Give Nick Punto more playing time.

I'll give Souhan credit for not saying something truly, monumentally boneheaded like "trade for Griffey" or "trade for Sabathia" or any other hugely overpriced Rent-A-Player. However, demanding that the front office make key moves and then pointing out a few places to clearly downgrade the team doesn't make any sense -- Souhan gets no credit for that. At best. Does negative credit exist?

I will also give Souhan absolutely zero credit for ignoring the pitching staff. Livan has pitched as expected, some of the young guys are stepping up, some are regressing, the bullpen is overtaxed, and we have far more young starters than a team can use. Do we trade some of them away for upgrades? Do we cycle them through the rotation and see who sticks? Do we transition some of them to the bullpen? Is it important to address the pitching situation at all when trying to shoot for the moon? Does Souhan care about pitching, given that it's not something that Nick Punto "can" do?

Finally ... I'll end with a question. What does this team actually need? Right now, and in the next 2-3 years.

Third base? Maybe ... but Buscher sure looks good and Valencia will be able to replace him in a few years. The fact that Buscher is 27 is virtually irrelevant because of Valencia -- by the time Buscher hits 30, we just let him go and replace him with promising youngster No. 203995.

Shortstop? Yes. Harris is not the answer, nor is Nick Punto or Adam Everett. Casilla might be, but that leaves a gaping hole at 2B, and if Casilla gets comfortable at 2B he should stay there. This team needs a shortstop ... too bad they're hard to find. Plouffe is the closest thing to a SS in the system, and nobody is really sold on him, as far as I can tell.

Second base? No. Casilla. He's good, end of story.

First base? Heh, no. Morneau is Hrbek.

Catcher? No. Enough said.

Center field? No. Gomez will be here for a while and will continue to improve. All Star in 2010.

Left field? Probably not, assuming Delmon remembers how to hit a baseball.

Right field? A big fat maybe ... but not soon. Cuddyer's 29, and will be 32 when his contract expires. I really like the guy, and I think he's a solid player both offensively and defensively and is definitely a good clubhouse leader. But if we don't want to re-sign him in 3 years, we should have guys knocking on the door, like Parmelee, Benson, Revere, possibly Hicks, possibly someone we don't even know about yet (which is how baseball works a lot of the time). The point is that our outfield is locked down with good players long enough for the next batch to be ready. It doesn't need an upgrade.

Bench? Monroe, Lamb, Punto, Redmond. Not really a bad bench. Redmond's a good backup catcher, Punto's valuable as a utility guy, Monroe and Lamb are theoretically good "bats off the bench" (if, that is, they decided to hit). This bench is a huge upgrade over years past (hmm, we need a late inning homer, who do we pinch hit ... Tyner or Luis Rodriguez?). But it could always get better.

Pitching? You can always use more pitching, but ... Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins, Duensing, Humber, Liriano, Boof, Mulvey, Swarzak, Manship, Guerra, etc. This team has solid pitching depth at the major league level and all the way down the farm system. Trading for more arms isn't really necessary.

All that said, it would obviously be nice to upgrade to a better player at every position. Texeira over Morneau, Soto over Mauer, Utley over Casilla, Hanley over Harris, etc all down the lineup. But it's not going to happen. What upgrades can this team realistically want to make?

I think this is a good roster, and the only real weak spot is at SS. Plus, the players should get better as the years go on, and we get closer to replacing them with cheaper, faster, more talented young players, as we always do.

The front office should not, as Souhan demands, think for the present and make ill-advised moves. They should also not, as Souhan suggests, give bad players playing time at the expense of good players. What they should do is always be on the lookout for a good deal, be ready to cut bait on someone before it's too late, and tell Gardenhire to play the best players, for crap's sake. (Kind of, you know, the opposite of what Souhan said.)

Go Twins.

The 3B Platoon: Better Late Than Never

2008-06-21T00:00:00-07:00

During Spring Training, it was my opinion that Brian Buscher should have come north with the club and been the starting third baseman. A March slump combined with the presence of Mike Lamb's Contract to ship Buscher off to Rochester, leaving us to endure Lamb's .224/.263/.302 performance at the plate for a few months.

A 27 year old with suspect defensive ability and a poor minor league track record, Buscher never got much love from the stat communities. He began his career by posting a .630 OPS in low-A ball, followed by a .772 in high-A, and a .714 in AA. Those simply aren't good numbers, especially from a corner infielder. But since joining the Twins in 2007, Buscher has done nothing but hit: he's now got a .908 OPS in 93 total games at AAA split over two seasons, showing respectable discipline and power.

He was recently called up to splt a 3B platoon with Matt Macri, in replacement of Lamb's abysmal performance -- and has continued to hit, though his discipline and power haven't found there way from Rochester just yet. He's also played a role in the Twins' recent streak of scoring a few runs -- he's driven in 8 runs and scored 4 of his own in just 8 games since being called up.

The other half of the platoon, Macri, has shown even more with the bat, hitting .367/.406/.500 in his 14 games. These two players combining to absolutely crush Lamb's performance is a definite boost for the offense, and the Twins should start seriously thinking about seeing what they can get for Mike Lamb in a trade. It won't be much -- but at least he'll be off the roster and we won't have to pay him to imitate a large Nick Punto.

This performance should be working to cement Buscher and Macri on the roster, but it's yet to be seen if it will. Gardenhire famously dislikes players who show any sign of having talent -- and his middling showing in the minors continues to hurt them. But I'm not so sure it should. Should the possibility that players can learn and improve be completely ignored?

Frankly, I'm glad to see both Buscher and Macri getting at bats, and I'm glad to see them both hitting well; I hope it continues. I wonder, though ... did Mike Lamb's proven mediocrity really warrant waiting until mid-June to make this change? His career 93 OPS+ isn't exactly the kind of thing that really stands out among third basemen.

This platoon should have started much earlier.

The Boof Conundrum

2008-06-16T00:00:00-07:00

In his first relief appearance I thought, "Man, maybe Boof has actually turned a corner and can thrive in a middle-long relief role". I was wrong. He continues to look lost on the mound. This makes me sad because I've always liked him, but it seems we must face the cold, cruel dawn and realize that maybe he just isn't going to thrive as a big league pitcher. Could he pitch while down the line for a different team? Probably. When Liriano comes back later this summer, I think the twins need to do one of two things: Cut Livan or Cut Boof. Boof has more upside, and Livan isn't going to be on the team next year anyway, so that seems like the logical choice. I was hoping he would pitch well until the end of summer and we could trade him at the deadline for more than a bucket of baseballs, but sadly that is about all he is worth now. I would rather keep Boof than Livan, but one of them will most likely be out when Liriano eventually returns. Another reason Livan makes sense is because we have to essentially make two roster moves. 1)Take a guy off the 25 man roster, and 2) Remove a guy from the rotation. If we get rid of Livan that kills two birds with one stone so to speak. Cutting Livan is even more essential if we fall out of the playoff race before the deadline. What is the point of having a terrible pitcher on the team who isn't part of the future plans. I know Gardy likes having guys with "veteran" status, but who really cares. Sometimes I think Gardy would take a bad veteran over a good inexperienced guy. I hope that isn't true, but he could prove it is later this summer by keeping Livan when everyone knows he shouldn't. The way I see it, the guys who are most likely to be sent down (or cut) when Liriano comes back are the following:

Livan
Boof
Brian Bass
Breslow
Bobby Korecky

That is in no particular order, but its pretty close to most to least likely. Korecky and Breslow have been quite effective, Bass has been forgettable but not terrible, and the first two have been pretty close to terrible. The reason I have limited it to pitchers is because the team seems set to have 12 pitchers. Also, with Nick Punto due back soon, I assume that Buscher will be the casuality when he comes back. If anyone has more creative method of shuffling the roster in the coming weeks/monhts, please, share.

The Worst Defense in the AL?

2008-06-11T00:00:00-07:00

Today's Baseball Prospectus newsletter just arrived, and pointed out the following statistic:

Bottom 5 AL Team Defenses, by Defensive Efficiency

Team, DEF_EFF

Minnesota Twins, .683 Seattle Mariners, .684 Texas Rangers, .684 New York Yankees, .696 Kansas City Royals, .698

That's defensive efficiency, and the Twins are the worst in the American League. This from an organization that has historically keyed on excellent defense.

The Rangers and Yankees have powerful offenses and are built to outscore their opponents, so their defensive woes are "part of the plan" and aren't that big a deal to them. The Mariners and Royals are the worst two teams in the AL.

That leaves the Twins, with a worse defense than all of them, an offense that isn't built to outscore anyone, and a pitching staff that pitches to contact rather than trying to strike people out.

It's not a recipe for winning ballgames, and the current 6 game losing streak is testament to that.

The problem, in large part, is the new faces. The ones that didn't come up through the Twins system, taught to value defense over all else. Delmon Young, Mike Lamb, Brendan Harris ... they were brought in to upgrade the offense while admittedly sacrificing defense. I don't disagree with the decision -- the offense definitely needed to be upgraded.

The issue is that their defense is worse than expected, and their offense is worse than what we were getting from those positions last year.

Delmon Young 2008: .266/.315/.357 (OPS: 672) Jason Tyner 2007: .281/.331/.355 (OPS: 686) Mike Lamb 2008: .228/.267/.310 (OPS: 577) Nick Punto 2007: .210/.291/.271 (OPS: 562) Brendan Harris 2008: .245/.314/.320 (OPS: 634) Jason Bartlett 2007: .265/.339/.361 (OPS: 700)

Each of these players is a significant downgrade defensively from their predecessor, AND a downgrade offensively. (And no, the fact that Mike Lamb's OPS is 15 points higher than Punto2007 does NOT impress me. Note that Lamb is the biggest position player free agent signing in the history of the Minnesota Twins. He should be able to hit considerably better than the WORST PLAYER IN BASEBALL.)

More than anything else, this abysmal defensive efficiency rating -- coupled with the fact that the worst transgressors also happen to be dragging down the offense more than the anemic ass bats they replaced -- is a reason to be worried about this team. Without defense, offense, OR pitching, how can we be expected to compete with anyone?

Twins 7, O's 5

2008-06-05T00:00:00-07:00

Nice little win the team put together last night. Perkins looked pretty terrible but somehow managed to only give up five runs in five innings. The way they were hitting the ball I thought it would be seven or eight. Boof's 2 2/3 shutout innings were huge because he came out firing strikes and the offense could rest easy that they wouldn't be down by more than five the next time they came up.

I really like wins like this. Where the team chips away at a defecit. Nothing fancy, not a grand slam, or all the runs in one inning. We stopped the bleeding early, and for the second half of the game we had the O's right where we want them. (Sidenote: Why are they called the O's? Is that an acceptable nickname for an Oriole? Why aren't the Twins called the "T's" or the Yankees the "Y's". Same goes for the Celtics being called the "C's". Is this laziness, lack of creativity or both.) Back to the game. Getting two runs back in the second was huge too, because it showed we weren't going to roll over and die for Cabrera kind of like we did for Liz the previous night.

Great showing for the 'pen, nothing like 4 guys (thats 4 if you count Reyes as a full person) combining for 5 shuout innings with only 2 baserunners. I was shocked at how easily Boof was getting guys out after every ball hit when Slowey pitched was hit really hard. I think Boof will thrive as a middle reliever, he doesn't seem to have the mental makeup or the stamina to be a starting pitcher. He proved last night he can probably still get guys out, which I like because I have always liked Boof, even when he was terrible. I think that is probably because I am just fresh out of hatred after using it all on Nick Punto.

Good to see Mauer hit another moonshot last night. Can we call them moonshots in the dome since we are inside, and we can't see the moon so therefore can't judge if the ball is headed that way? Whatever. I remember saying earlier in the year that the only time Mauer pulls the ball is when he grounds out to the second baseman. Have teams not realized that he hits lefties better than righties? Because he does.

Today we have Scott Baker going at noon. Should be a productive day at work.

Mauer: It's About Time

2008-06-03T00:00:00-07:00

Last night, Mauer hit his first home run of the season. He took a four seam fastball off the inside corner of the plate and turned on it, smashing it against the upper deck in right field. It was good to see him unload on that.

In honor of that, and the upcoming draft, I thought I'd point out a little tidbit that Peter Gammons came up with:

From the institution of the draft in 1965 through 2001, there were 21 catchers taken at the top of the draft -- meaning within the first five picks of the first round. Steve Chilcott was the first, taken with the first overall pick in 1966 by the Mets, one place in front of Reggie Jackson, by the Kansas City Athletics. Chilcott hurt his shoulder in Double-A and never made it to the major leagues. Of those 21 catchers picked in the first five selections, five caught 2,000 games in the big leagues: Thurman Munson, Darrell Porter, John Stearns, Mike Lieberthal and Joe Mauer.

For all the people complaining that Mauer doesn't play enough games and is weak -- I'm looking at you, Torii Hunter -- that list must be a little suprising. Standout catchers are rare in this game, and getting them at the top of the draft is even rarer.

Granted, the draft is a crapshoot and Mauer literally fell into the Twins' lap. But they still made the right pick with Mauer in 2001, and it has worked out really well so far. And now he's on pace for three home runs this year!

(By the way, the only other catcher taken in the first round who currently plays is Jason Varitek. Originally drafted by the Twins, but showed his douchy Boston-like tendencies by refusing to sign. Maybe the Twins know what they're doing?)

EDIT

Upon further review, it turns out that none of the catchers Gammons listed have caught 2000 games in the majors. No wonder that list seemed so surprising.

Games played as a catcher, career:

Porter: 1506
Munson: 1278
Lieberthal: 1170
Stearns: 699
Mauer: 409

At this point, I have no idea what Gammons was thinking. It couldn't be 2000 games combined, because they've combined for over 5000 innings (and that doesn't make any sense at all, really). It couldn't be 2000 innings, because even though Mauer has caught 3500 innings in his career, that just doesn't seem like very many and I don't believe it.

I clearly shouldn't have posted this without checking Gammons' work. My bad. Damn ESPN. What am I paying you for? (I think it's especially bad that this was an Insider article, so I actually paid to read this lie from Gammons.)

END EDIT

Let's Play The Dayton Game

2008-05-31T00:00:00-07:00

Joe Posnanski, a writer for the Kansas City Star and a great Royals blogger, has a post up about The Dayton Game.

It's apparently called that because Dayton Moore, Royals GM, showed it to Posnanski. But here's what it is: Just list off all the 60 tools on your team. Not 60 players; 60 tools. (Based on the scouting 20-80 scale. A 60 tool is an All-Star caliber tool.)

Given that Posnanski's list for the Royals had two tools on it (that's right ... two), I'm kind of stunned that Dayton Moore described this as a "fun little game." For him, isn't it more along the lines of "depressing little insult?"

So I decided to play the game for the Twins:

Mauer's hitting
Mauer's defense
Morneau's power
Cuddyer's arm
Young's arm
Gomez's speed
Gomez's defense
Casilla's speed
Casilla's arm

And ... that's it. Lamb, Harris, Everett, Monroe, Redmond, Tolbert, Punto ... no 60 tools among them. Naked batting practice doesn't count.

I considered Mauer's arm ... but he's only thrown out 7 of 27 base stealers this year. I know they're stealing off the pitchers, but that's still pretty pathetic. So Mauer has to earn that 60 back.

I considered Morneau's speed -- gotcha! I thought that was a good one.

I considered Young's hitting and power and speed; after all, he's supposed to be a 5 tool player and the scouts love his tools. Except he can't hit, when he does it doesn't go anywhere, and he runs like his shoes are too heavy. So ... no. He can throw.

I considered Kubel's power. I did. But until he starts showing it off more consistently, I can't put him on this list. A big part of that probably has to do with increased playing time. But he's not getting that, so I'm not just going to put him here as if he deserves it. Hit some home runs, Jason. Make Gardy look like even more of an idiot, and you'll get your power listed on here. (But that grand slam was awesome.)

Gomez probably has the best tool on the team -- in fact, some scouts say he's the only 80 speed in baseball. And his defense has proved to be awesome out there. His arm is strong enough, but it doesn't make this list until he can hit the broad side of a barn.

I think it's funny that Casilla makes up 22% of this list. But he can really run, and every time he throws the ball I wonder if it's going to put a hole in someone's glove. (Honestly, Alexi, you're 10 feet away. Take a little heat off those throws!) He hasn't learned how and when to use it, but a strong and accurate arm has to be a 60. Casilla is grossly misused as a second baseman.

But ... nine tools? That's it? I was really hoping for more. And I find it especially worrying that only two of them (Mauer's hitting and Morneau's power) have to do with offense. I mean, Loose Cannons I & II have the speed to cause chaos and help the offense, but they're not strictly offensive tools. I think you need more than nine 60s in order to field a playoff caliber team. (I don't know how many you need. But nine doesn't seem like very many.) We could add a few offensive tools to this if/when Kubel and/or Delmon starts hitting -- but that's beginning to look like it's no guarantee.

So, before I get too frustrated with this, I'm just going to think about how Gardy would play this game. Punto and Tolbert, the perfect players, obviously have 10 tools between them. So Gardy already won the game, I guess.

Did I miss any tools? Overrate any?

Let's Play The Dayton Game

2008-05-31T00:00:00-07:00

Mauer's hitting
Mauer's defense
Morneau's power
Cuddyer's arm
Young's arm
Gomez's speed
Gomez's defense
Casilla's speed
Casilla's arm

KC Sweep: Kind of like beating up a child

2008-05-30T00:00:00-07:00

Sorry its been a while since I made a post, I was in Vegas and almost gambled away the ownership of this site.

Its always nice to sweep a divisional opponent. Even if it is the Royals. Blackburn and Slowey looked great, Livan not so much. Tuesday's win was a little deflating considering we tried to give the game away, but on the flipside Wednesday's game was the opposite. Not sure why Hillman didn't bring in a lefty to face Morneau. If I were a Royals fan, I would be pretty upset. But if Royals fans know anything its patience. Patience and losing.

A few musings from the series:

I'm really starting to come around on Craig Monroe. Is he overpaid? Yes. However, having a power bat off the bench is something this team hasn't had in a while (if ever) and it sure is nice.
What percentage of Mike Lamb's hits produce RBI? Its gotta be pretty high.
Did anyone see how Harris looked turning the DP at short yesterday? He seemed much more fluid than when he was at second. What say you to ending the Adam Everett experiment and using Harris as the everyday SS?
I noticed Mauer was sporting a bit of a beard, as was Cuddyer. Apparently they are going to grow them until they homer. Someone get Delmon Young in on that too.
I think Punto is coming off the DL sometime this weekend, how much does Gardy increase his playing time? I bet he is in the game somewhere, either short, second or, third, everyday. Gardy has been unusually anal about the defense, even for him. Lamb's defense hasn't really bothered me, and I think he is starting to turn a corner at the plate. But I've said that before...
A while back we made a post that used a phrase "Gardy's addiction to scrappy middle infielders" or something like that and we had a comment from a blog on addiction who found us from that phrase, I wonder what kind of readers today's headline will attract.
So we have 4 against the Yankees starting tonight. Monday's game is on ESPN at 6pm local time. It will be nice to hopefully take three. We have Perkins going tonight, and the Yankees have a handful of lefties in their everyday lineup. Matsui, Giambi, Abreu, Cano, and Damon. Not sure if Girardi will start all five of them, but I don't know what other options he has. Shelly Duncan? Ok.
Is Baker due back this weekend, or is Boof going to make another start. I don't want to see him try to get the Yankees out. He has really disappointed me. I was hoping for a good year out of him.

Santana's Troubles Make Wild Bill Look Good

2008-05-23T00:00:00-07:00

Rumblings have started to come out about Johan Santana's arm. They've been quiet, under the surface since December, when people pointed out that his numbers were drastically down over the last six weeks of the season. Until yesterday, when Buster Olney mentioned that some evaluators have been saying that Santana's velocity is down and that his mechanics are off -- he's short-arming the ball, indicative of shoulder problems. Today, Olney harnessed an explosion of reactions from scouts who agree wholeheartedly that something is wrong with Santana.

"The Mets were asking around about that in spring training, about what his true [velocity] baseline was," said one talent evaluator. "They were concerned." Said an AL scout who has seen Santana this month: "His stuff isn't even close to what it was [with the Twins]."

One explanation for his diminished numbers at the end of last season was that he didn't care as much since he was playing for a non-contender. I didn't buy it, of course, since Santana's a competitor and would want to try to win no matter what, and the idea that he "didn't care" about winning those games just doesn't make sense to me. That said, I was a little dubious at that point that there was anything wrong with him.

That is, until he started demanding the 7 year mega-deal extension, as a stipulation of waiving his no-trade clause. He wanted free agent money even though he wasn't a free agent -- which hurt the Twins, but not as much as it would have hurt had we signed him to the rumored 5/$100M deal and he didn't live up to it. The question I kept asking was: why is he demanding this contract now?

He was one year away from free agency. He would have been in a free agent market with CC Sabathia, with many teams desperate for a big time starter -- notably all the big spenders. A big contract was going to be available after 2008 ... so what was the rush? Why would he be so eager to forgo the inevitable bidding war?

The only explanation I could think of was that he knew something was wrong. The fact that the Mets were concerned about his velocity in Spring Training indicates that they were also concerned -- albeit a little bit too late.

I had been against signing Santana to the mega-deal, and especially against increasing the deal to whatever it would have taken to sign him. That isn't a popular opinion among Twins fans, of course, since everybody loves Santana and having the best pitcher in baseball is worth quite a bit. And it was worth a lot to the Twins to have him (.700 winning percentage when Santana starts, .500 or so when he doesn't). But that contract would look like a pretty bad albatross if given to someone who was NOT the best pitcher in the game. And I thought it was pretty unlikely that Santana would be that good for another 4-5 years -- his previous 4 years rank pretty well among the best 4 year peaks of the best pitchers in history ... and there's a reason they rank by 4 year peaks: pitchers can rarely keep it up past 4 years.

It's starting to look like history will end up being right again. If Santana has significant wear and tear on his shoulder and continues his homer-happy ways (the most homers given up since the start of 2007), it's going to be pretty bad for the Mets. And the Twins are going to end up looking pretty good in the deal, as Carlos Gomez improves from his "already-replacing-Torii-Hunter" status.

This serves as further evidence as to why it's a bad idea to sign a starting pitcher to a long term contract (as if Barry Zito, Kevin Brown, and Mike Hampton hadn't been enough); as vindication for those of us who've been vilified for being pro-Santana-trade; and as a major source of frustration for CC Sabathia, who may have just lost out on a LOT of money after the season.

And it makes the Twins' front office under Wild Bill look pretty damn good.

The Demise of Fundamentals

2008-05-19T00:00:00-07:00

Yet another embarrassing loss, and the Twins reputation as a small ball team that does the little things right continues to look more and more ill-gotten. This team can't advance runners on the bases and does little, if anything, right. From the game recap:

"I hope that would be our ugliest game of the year," Gardenhire said. "I hope we never have to deal with something like that again, missing pop flies and failures to get runners in and execution, the whole package. "I don't know how you prepare for those things. We're not used to seeing it and it's embarrassing for this organization and our fans. I put that on my shoulders -- that's my baseball team out there."

Frankly, I was fully expecting Gardy to stick with the "We didn't get the job done, the other team was the best team in the history of baseball, we need to focus on the little things" mantra that he says to the media after every bad performance, but he went one step further this time. He actually took responsibility for how badly the team played. Although I don't know how much responsibility he really put onto his shoulders, given that he started the sentence by saying he doesn't know if there's anything that can be done about it.

All I can say is that he'd better figure something out. It seems more and more like Gardy just says things to the media but that doesn't get passed along to the players. Does Gardy ever talk to the team? To the players individually? Does the team even practice?

Howard Sinker said it extremely well:

The former manager, Tom Kelly, imbued his teams with the fundamentals and Gardy’s division-winning teams were in large part the result of Kelly’s ways of doing things. The current group has lost the right to carry that banner.

Indeed, ever since Gardenhire took over the team, the "fundamentals" have existed only in the press room, kept alive in the minds of Gardy and the media, but not in the minds of the players or on the field. And it seems that it's been getting worse as the years progress. At some point, Gardy simply has to realize that he's not actually putting together a major league caliber defense, and that "pitching to contact" only works if there's an excellent defense on the field. And that if a player isn't good with the glove, he has to be able to hit -- if not, why is he on the team? (Quick, name five position players on the team who can neither hit nor field. That shouldn't have been so easy.)

And offensively?

"Honestly, though, he wanted to walk us," Gardenhire said. "He tried to throw the balls in the dirt. We just kept swinging. I credit their pitcher to keep doing that. If they're going to keep swinging, keep throwing them down there."

I feel like I've written about this a few times before. And I also feel that Gardy has claimed on multiple occasions that he's talked to the players about waiting for their pitch and not swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. It's just ... nothing has changed. Either Gardy hasn't talked to the team, they didn't listen, they're not practicing it, or for some reason it's simply not translating into the games. If Gardy considers himself the manager of the team, it's high time he steps in and tries to fix this on the field.

I can't be the only one who's had enough of hearing one thing from Gardy and seeing the opposite on the field.

The Worst Thing About Ron Gardenhire

2008-05-18T00:00:00-07:00

Scott Ullger.

If ever there were more despicable words to utter, I have not heard them. A little history is in order, I think. Ullger's playing career was with the Twins, and he played 35 games as a light hitting first baseman in 1983. He managed minor league teams in the Twins' organization in the late 80's through the mid-90's, until he became the Twins' first base coach in 1995.

When Ron Gardenhire became the manager in 2002, perhaps his first order of business was to promote his good friend "Scotty" Ullger to the position of "hitting coach." Only Gardenhire would make the mistake of thinking that a first baseman with a career hitting line of .190/.247/.241 (with an OPS+ of just 33 -- meaning that he was one third as productive as the average hitter) could be a successful hitting coach.

After the team put together OPS+ of 103, 102, 95, and 88 through his first four seasons as the hitting coach -- and numerous complaints by the team's promising young hitters, most notably Justin Morneau, who thought Joe Vavra down at AAA would be a better option -- Gardenhire apparently came to the conclusion that Ullger may have been over-exposed as a hitting coach. After the 2005 season, Ullger's proven ineptitude as a hitting coach got him promoted to third base coach, where he now reigns as Gardenhire's second in command and right hand man.

Ullger's abilities as a third base coach are perhaps even worse than his abilities as a hitting coach. He shows no ability to judge a baserunning situation, and appears to nothing about the throwing arms on the other teams' outfielders or the speed of his own players. He repeatedly holds fast runners at third before the ball has been fielded in the gaps, and -- much more frequently and much, much worse -- sends slower runners home as the ball is returning to the infield, leaving them to get thrown out at home by dozens of feet.

This ends rallies prematurely, yes, but even worse it endangers our players. Last year, Morneau was hospitalized with a bruised lung after a particularly rough collision at home with Marlins catcher Miguel Olivo -- Morneau was a sitting duck in the basepaths, and admirably tried to tackle the catcher and knock the ball loose. The point is that he never should have been in that situation, and Ullger needs to learn that Morneau is not one of the speed demons on this team. Of course, he did not learn from this experience, and has continued to send Morneau home when it's obvious that he'll be thrown out easily.

Ullger's unreliable calls, and perhaps an inability to effectively communicate with the players, resulted in Kubel running through a "stop sign" and being thrown out at the plate on a pop up to the short stop. Ullger claimed he put up the stop sign, and Kubel claimed he looked and didn't see one, instead seeing Ullger "just kind of standing there," and decided to make a go of it. It was a piss poor decision on Kubel's part, but I find it hard to blame him, given Ullger's known incompetence.

One would assume that this kind of stuff would come up in some kind of annual, or quarterly, performance review. Or that someone -- like the manager -- would at least tell Ullger to improve his decision-making and stop killing rallies and injuring the players. Alas, no, this has not happened. Instead, Gardy has repeatedly, continually stated that he fully expects Ullger to replace him as manager when he steps down (whenever that happens), admirably continuing the royal managerial lineage.

Ullger's continued presence in the dugout and on the third baseline is perhaps the most damning testimony against Gardenhire's judgement of talent and managerial ability. At best, it is simply a case of nepotism gone wrong -- at worst, Gardy simply cannot evaluate the performance of those underneath him.

And worst of all, Gardy fully plans to deliver one final punch by recommending Ullger as his replacement. Haven't we endured enough? Hasn't Ullger demonstrated that he gets worse at his job the higher he gets promoted? Shouldn't, therefore, he stop being promoted?

It's time to get Ullger off the field and out of the dugout. For the benefit of the team and the safety of our players.

Canadian Sweep

2008-05-16T00:00:00-07:00

Stupid filthy Canadians.

If Delmon Young doesn't hit a homer in colorado he needs to be benched. If our pitchers come out of the weekend with more homers than Young, he needs to be benched.

Did anyone read Souhan today? He claimed that Harris and Lamb were failing to equal the offense production of Nick Punto. That is just flat out wrong. Lamb has about 500 doubles this year, and Harris has been excellent and his defense seems to improve daily at second. Granted, it still isn't good, its better. I've watched Mike Lamb play many games at third and I am very impressed with his defense over there. I think people overestimate how much range you actually need to play third. You need good reflexes, and a good arm. Lamb seems to have those. Having a good shortstop to cover lots of ground helps too. However, I do not think we are losing games because of Lamb's "subpar" defense. He has shown good ability to snag hard it liners to third. He has a high baseball IQ (something Gomez does not have, but that is for a different time), and he is a productive hitter. Souhan was accurate in describing Young as "a muscular singles hitter", but its only May. Granted, he should have at least more homers than Adam Everett, and perhaps a benching will light a fire under him, but its too early typecast him as a singles hitter. Derek Jeter and Ichiro are singles hitters, because they have been doing it for years. (Note: being a singles hitter isn't a bad thing, but if you are either striking out or hitting a single, its bad).

Also, where did the notion that Delmon is the ultimate power hitter come from? He only hit 13 homers last year and he played in every game. Kubel had about 13 homers last year and he didn't play in nearly every game. I'm not familiar with Youngs complete minor league stats, but was he a sweet power hitter in the past? I think Rick Ankiel is more of a power hitter than Delmon Young. Wait, no. Rick Ankiel is more of a power hitter than Delmon Young, that wasn't my opinion.

That is all.

Delmon Young Rumblings

2008-05-13T00:00:00-07:00

It's time to continue grumbling about Delmon Young. He played all 162 games last year, and has played every game so far this year. That's admirable ... but at the same time, he's not producing. Despite getting two hits last night, he came up short in perhaps his most important at bat -- bases loaded, nobody out. An RBI Fielder's Choice is not what we want out of our prized young slugger in that situation.

But is the Young Delmon in danger of riding the pine?

"He told me the other day, he doesn't like to miss an inning," Gardenhire said. "And I told him to get some hits, and he won't."

It sure sounds like Gardy's noticed that Delmon isn't living up to his hyped hitting ability. He has only 4 XBH so far this season (including 0 HR), for a IsoP of just .036 -- which is shockingly Tyner-esque. (Last year, Tyner's IsoP was .069.)

So while Gardy wants him to "get some hits," I don't think that's the message that needs to be sent. Delmon answered by getting some singles, and raising his average to .271 ... but the real problem is that he needs to put a charge into the ball. Delmon needs to be crushing line drives and putting the ball over the fence.

Would benching be a viable option? Would it do what we want, and light a fire under his ass? Would it have the same effect it had on Gomez? Or would it anger Delmon, starting a player-manager fight in the same vein as Young v. Maddon a year ago?

It's impossible to say. But something needs to change, and I'm an advocate of sitting him down and telling him that if you want to be in the lineup, you have to produce. Just take it easy for a day, and when you come back start swinging harder -- we don't need our young players taking bat-speed lessons from Mauer (while ignoring the strike zone lessons, apparently).

Weekend Recap

2008-05-12T00:00:00-07:00

Not a bad weekend, win two of three (with one to go) against the stupid red sox (that is the official firegardy.com name for the baseball team from Boston). Friday was great. Nothing like taking papplebon (also, none of their players names deserve capitalization) down a peg or two. Very exciting, too bad we couldn't carry that momentum over into Saturday. Perkins looked ok for a while, but our pitchers just couldn't seem to keep the ball in the park. Granted the stupid red sox have a very powerful lineup, we just can't allow them to do that. On sunday Craig Monroe had one of his best games as a Twins, does anyone hear rumblings of benching the punchless Young and playing Monroe and Kubel at LF and DH? They aren't too loud, but such rumblings have to start somewhere. And that somewhere is here. And probably lots of other places too.

I really thing Gomez has turned a corner in his development as a hitter. Since that game a few weeks back when he was benched, he has been tearing the cover off the ball. He still strikes out too much, but he is young and is progessing MUCH faster than I thought. He takes some questionable routes to the ball in the outfield, and until last night he was able to use his speed to make up for his inability to read balls off the bat (his speed can't make up for his inability to read books, but that is neither here nor there). Isn't the first thing you learn in little league taking a few steps back when a ball is hit in the air because it is easier to move in on a ball at the last second than to have to move back? I don't get why his first steps are forward everytime. Ullger isn't our outfield coach, is he?

In other news, no Nick Punto for about two weeks. That is awesome. I hope Casilla gets some playing time, but not sure where they would put him. I think Gardy likes him as a SS, so will he play on days that Everett rests? Harris is supposed to be ready to go for tonights game, and since he has been out for a while I get the feeling he will be starting several games in a row there, just to get back into the swing of things.

Did anyone else notice last night that Tolbert is a terrible secondbaseman? He made two bad throws while turning potential DPs. On a ball hit down the left field line he ran over to third to cut the ball off. Was there a reason for this? He was about 10 miles out of position , and if the ball got away from the 18 guys we had on the left side of the infield, only Morneau was on the right side to back anything up. I hope that was just Tolbert being dumb, not the coaching staff telling him to take cutoff throws from the left fielder as a secondbaseman.

We have Livan tossing tonight. On ESPN, can't wait to hear what Joe Morgan has to say.

Baseball Offense: Old School vs New School

2008-05-09T00:00:00-07:00

This week, I wrote about how a small strike zone always seems to hurt the Twins. My explanation was fairly simplistic:

"The strike zone may have been consistent for both teams, but the Twins react terribly to it, and have for years. First, it hurts the pitcher because the corners aren’t called for strikes — meaning he’s giving up more walks and more hard hit balls than he’s used to. That isn’t consistent for both teams, however, because of the Outside Swing Percentage problems the Twins have: namely, they swing at everything that moves and won’t draw any walks regardless of how friendly the strike zone is."

I wanted to think about this some more. Especially in the context of a conversation we had yesterday: "The way I see it, there are two basic philosophies for building an offense: walks + power, or consecutive hits + speed."

I'm not about to debate whether these are the only two basic philosophies of building an offense. But what I am going to do is walk through a (rather longwinded) thought about which of these two philosophies produces the better offense -- and how that affects the enjoyment of the game.

When you watch an old baseball game, one of the striking things about it is how large the strike zone is. When you're taught to play baseball, you're told that the strike zone is "from your armpits to your knees," and the umpires actually used to call it that way. As a result of the large strike zone, batters had to protect the plate a lot more, and swing at anything that was near the corners, otherwise they'd just strike out.

When you're swinging like that, it's supremely difficult to put any power into your swing. (I know this from personal experience -- when I played, I never hit a home run, but I also rarely struck out ... or walked. Classic Old School Twins Player.)

As a result, old games tended to take less time, and a player's value was tied directly to his batting average, as opposed to his OBP. (Because it was so much more difficult to walk, a player's ability to make contact WAS his ability to get on base.) In order to score runs, a team had to sustain a rally. You had to get three or four hits in an inning in order to score a couple of runs. The suspense in these games is palpable (which is funny, considering the fact that they happened decades ago), and the players were forced to trust the players ahead of them and behind them in the order. The BB-K-HR model individualizes the game much more -- each of those players was trying to hit his own home run, not sustain a rally for his team.

How does this effect the Twins and their organizational philosophy? The most famous Twins players were swing away hitters. Some of them could put it over the fence, some couldn't. Some made more contact than others. But none of them kept the bat on their shoulder.

The Twins mastered the art of the old school offensive strategy close to the time it became outdated -- and won a pair of World Series for their efforts. Even players who weren't part of those teams, but were predecessors and part of the mold of "a Twins Player" remained in the public's consciousness and hearts. Oliva, Carew, Puckett, Hrbek ... free swinging, fun loving, old school baseball players. These are what a Twin is supposed to be.

And nothing changed since then. The ownership is the same, just older. The front office is the same, each GM naming his successor and keeping alive the victorious lineage of the '87 and '91 champions. The curmudgeonly manager of those championship teams finally retired and named his successor, keeping alive THAT victorious lineage.

Of course, the second championship was followed by a decade of dark, dark times. Exactly the kind of times a franchise could use for some serious soul searching, to figure out what direction the organization is going to take. To determine whether or not the game has passed them by, and that changes are necessary.

This soul searching didn't happen. Nothing changed -- instead, after a decade of futility, a new band of young Twins emerged, forged from the mold of old, Classic Old School Twins Players. They swung at everything, and they managed to do it in a row enough to score runs. The Twins re-mastered the art of the old school offensive strategy, just as other teams were mastering the new offensive strategy -- walks and power.

The Boston Red Sox -- certainly one of the most successful of the new school offenses -- represent perhaps the perfect juxtaposition with the Twins. They didn't maximize their walks + power offense until they added the ultimate DH ... a certain David Ortiz. He stepped into their lineup and immediately started blasting balls over the fence and striking fear into the hearts of pitchers everywhere. Before DOrtiz was this feared hitter, he was with the Twins, where he was "forced to swing like a little bitch." (His words.)

But, at the end of the day, is this Old School Offense that the Twins are employing such a bad thing? The Twins offense won't score as many runs or be as consistent as the more modern teams, and they'll probably amass a worse record over the course of the season than the teams willing to spend 2+ times as much money (that's what it costs to get the good "Three True Outcomes" players). And another World Series may be hard to come by (although anything can happen).

I don't personally watch baseball every day because I EXPECT my favorite team to be the best one that's ever been constructed, every day of every year. That's a bit of an East Coast mentality that's a bit too oppressive for my tastes. I watch baseball because I enjoy it, it's entertaining and fun to watch, and it recalls my memories of playing baseball as a kid. And when you're a kid, not many people are able to hit a home run and everyone hates it when kids are getting walked around the bases.

I don't LIKE watching a baseball game where every at bat is most likely to be a strike out, walk, or home run. That type of play tends to take a long time, and encourages both the batter and the pitcher to draw out each pitch as long as possible. The "greatest rivalry in sports," Red Sox versus Yankees, produces nothing but unwatchable games. Every game takes over four hours, and there's little suspense in wondering which team will amass the most home runs (following walks) over the course of these particular nine innings. I would MUCH rather watch a 2.5 hour game in which 4-5 hits could happen in a row at any time, and whenever someone manages to get on base you have to sit on the edge of your seat as a rally may be about to start. (And because of that, I can get over the fact that the rally only actually starts about 20% of the time. If that.)

I think the modern walks + power offense is a "better" way to go about it. I'd like to see the Twins adopt some aspects of it. But at the same time, I love and appreciate the fact that I root for a throwback team that eschews these modern lessons and plays the game "the way it's always been played." There's something comforting in that.

(And I'm not even old.)

Gomez Cycles, Punto Being Punto

2008-05-08T00:00:00-07:00

I was at the game last night. I stood, huddled out of the rain for two hours while a torrential downpour punished US Cellular Field (presumably for those dorky pinwheels). Finally, they started the game at 9 o'clock, despite the fact that it was still drizzling. I was not bullish on the team's chances in the game. For one thing, they'd looked awful the night before. Secondly, Buerhle was pitching, and he always kills the Twins. And Monroe was in the 3-hole and Redmond-Tolbert-Punto were in a row. And the field was soaked. I said to my brother: "What are the odds the Twins score a run tonight?"

Well Carlos Gomez greeted me by crushing the third pitch of the game, lining it hard over the fence in left. When he makes contact on those "Who cares if I'm swinging way too hard?" swings, the ball can really sail. The Twins had scored a run, and beaten the odds.

Thankfully, the offense exploded for 13 runs on 16 hits, while Livan Hernandez took a shutout into the 9th (and promptly lost it when Jermaine "Roid Rage" Dye put one over the fence). And Carlos Gomez hit for the cycle ... entertainingly, in reverse order -- homer, triple, double, single. This is one of those dizzying highs for Gomez's season, and I'm certainly enjoying it.

In the 5th inning, the Twins were putting a good threat together. Men on first and second, nobody out. Punto steps up to the plate. At the time, it was a 1-0 game, and it seemed this would be our chance to break the game open against Buerhle. Punto bunted, and proceeded not to run to first. Redmond was thrown out at third (it kind of negates the point of a sacrifice bunt if the guy on base is too slow to advance to the next base). It was a tough slide, and almost knocked Crede down ... but he still had time to notice that Punto was still standing at home plate and set himself to throw Punto out. Quickly, the promising inning was no more thanks to a certain Nick Punto. (Gomez promptly tripled home a run, and Punto finished his game by hitting a couple of doubles and driving in 5 runs, so I guess someone really lit into him in the dugout. My guess is it wasn't Gardy.)

(Quick aside: Over the offseason, Punto apparently worked out with Manny Ramirez. I wondered, at the time, what that would result in. Would Punto gain some strength at be able to hit a home run? Would Manny start playing with reckless abandon while trying to justify his contract? Neither seemed that believable. But last night, we finally discovered what Punto learned while hanging out with Manny: "Manny being Manny." He put down that bunt and just stood there in the batter's box, admiring his splendid work, just like Manny does when he pounds a homer (or near-homer). The thing is, "Punto being Punto" doesn't have the same ring to it.)

This game really was incredible. It's what you'd expect the first place team to be able to do once in a while. And excellence (13 runs, Gomez's cycle, Livan's gem) managed to completely overshadow utter incompetence (Punto's "bunt").

Slowey starts against Danks this afternoon, and we'll get to see if the Twins can build off this performance.

A Small Strike Zone Always Hurts the Twins

2008-05-07T00:00:00-07:00

It wasn't too long ago that we were getting excited about the possibility of a more patient offense, one that wouldn't swing at everything it sees, one that forces the pitchers to work, one that gets us to the bullpen, one that draws walks, one that scores runs.

Within days of Gardy's first (and thus far, only) team meeting about this very issue, the Twins scored 12 runs while seeing 176 pitches. Things were looking up for the offense. Of course, things quickly turned south for the new offense, and the Twins reverted to their old free-swinging ways.

This culminated in Tuesday night's game against the White Sox. Everyone on the team not named Joe Mauer went 0-26 with exactly 1 walk. Mauer drew a pair of walks, but perhaps most importantly, got the team's sole hit with one out in the 9th to break up Gavin Floyd's no hit bid.

The Twins were just 2 outs away from the amusing oddity of scoring a run despite getting 0 hits (earlier in the game: Mauer walked, advanced to 2nd on an error, advanced to 3rd on Cuddyer's sac fly, scored on Kubel's sac fly). But (fortunately) it didn't happen, and all the players seemed to be thrilled not to be on the wrong end of a no hitter. Perhaps they shouldn't be so thrilled about it -- instead, learn to hit and avoid being anywhere near that situation.

Today, Gleeman brought up a new stat called Outside Swing Percentage. Basically, it measures the percentage of a player's swings that are on balls outside the strike zone. Plate discipline is usually measured in walks, but this stat takes a look at another aspect of plate discipline: not swinging at bad pitches.

It seems like it should be really obvious, but if you avoid swinging at bad pitches (ie, pitches out of the strike zone), then not only will you draw more walks, but you'll get more hits (because the pitches you're swinging at are easier to hit) and your hits are more likely to be solid (because the pitches you're swinging at are easier to hit -- and you don't have to reach for them). Apparently, this logic is lost on the Twins.

The only Twins players better than league average are Mauer, Kubel, Tolbert, and Punto. Kubel, Tolbert, and Punto haven't got enough at bats to qualify for the batting title, so only Mauer qualifies as above average for our team.

On the other hand, Carlos Gomez (38.3%) and Delmon Young (36.2%) have the third and fourth worst Outside Swing Percentages in baseball (only Vladimir Guerrero and AJ Pierzynski are worse).

This is pathetic, and must be remedied as soon as possible. And it all came to a head in last night's game.

The umpire had a small strike zone throughout (and it was consistent, so it's not like the Twins were screwed). In the first inning, I sent a text message: "The small strike zone is going to hurt us tonight."

The strike zone may have been consistent for both teams, but the Twins react terribly to it, and have for years. First, it hurts the pitcher because the corners aren't called for strikes -- meaning he's giving up more walks and more hard hit balls than he's used to. That isn't consistent for both teams, however, because of the Outside Swing Percentage problems the Twins have: namely, they swing at everything that moves and won't draw any walks regardless of how friendly the strike zone is.

For the Twins, a small strike zone means they'll give up a lot of runs and struggle to get any baserunners. This isn't new -- Tuesday's game was just an ugly reminder of the team's (and, in fact, organization's) woes.

Weekend Recap

2008-05-05T00:00:00-07:00

Well, that was fun. Nothing like sweeping two rivals in one week. Lets start with friday. How Livan didn't give up more than one run boggles my mind. It seems that even his outs were loud, but as the saying goes: don't question miracles. Or something like that. The bats looked good on friday, consistent pounding the ball. We got production from the entire lineup, which was awesome. We only had one homer, but had 4 doubles and a triple to go with our 10 singles. The only person to go hitless was, surprise, Nick Punto. I can't believe Ullger played him in Center.

Saturday was also good. Not a blowout. In fact it was very close most of the game. Craig was able to put it away with this second homer of the year. The hero of the game was Brian Bass, with 4 shutout innings in relief of the injured Scott Baker.

After watching the first inning on sunday I was upset that the Twins were going lose the third game of a series in a blowout, something they seem to do all too often. After winning the first two they totally shut down on sunday and get trampled. However, they didn't give up. They kept chipping away, and Boof righted the ship after the worst first inning I've seen in a while.

It was good to see Mauer catch all 5 games of the homestand. He looked good at the plate too, and I think he is going to have a big summer. Let's hope Baker doesn't need to go on the DL, but if he does Slowey will be ready to pitch in Chicago. So lets head to the south side and sitck it to the Sox again. Go Twins!

Twins 3 White Sox 1

2008-04-30T00:00:00-07:00

Huge win today. Nothing like breaking a mini-slump by beating the team that is in first place. Boof looked good tonight. He kept his pitch count under control, I was shocked when the count was only in the 70s and it was the 6th inning. Some of his outs were really loud, but he made them miss a lot: 8 ks. People have been knocking Boof, and I'm not sure why. He's had a few bad starts, but I think he is much better than he was in 2007. He just needs to be consistent and I will be happy. I'm not expecting him to be an ace or anything, but a lower than average era and just keeping the team in the game would be great. That being said, I wouldn't be opposed to him becoming an ace. Reyes looked pretty questionable, but Young made a nice (dare I say great) play in left, (I'm still not really sure how he caught the ball) and a heads up throw to the cutoff man (are you listening Gomez, to the cutoff man, not past him) who then nailed Swisher at first, by quite a bit. Nathan was Nathan and looked very good.

The bats had one good inning. If I recall, we also had some loud outs. Mauer stung the ball really well in his second or third at bat but it was right at Swisher, and Kubel did the same late in the game. I'm glad to see Mauer hitting the ball like the Mauer of old again. That was a nice triple in the first (I blame Swisher for the extra base more than I credit Mauer, but who cares). There was a decent article in the Star Tribune today about Mauer hitting for power versus average. If he wants to hit lots of jacks, he is going to have to change that pretty inside out swing of his, which will result in lower average. I don't want that. I will take high average, high OBP, and lots of doubles. I think Morneau and Kubel can provide the deep ball from the left side with Cuddyer, and Young (hopefully) providing power from the right side. I was surprised to see that Kuble is only hitting 247 on the year. I was under the impression that he was tearing it up, but I think he has had lots of big hits, but has had few multi hit games. Which is something you need to do to raise your average and keep it high. Especially early on.

On a different note, has anyone else noticed how gimicky Twins games are? Its been a while since I've been to another stadium, but it seems like in between every inning there is some sponsored contest or give away. Its almost like the Saints or something. I went to a Cubs game and a White sox game and I don't recall seeing that much crap between innings. Especially at the Cubs game. My guess is the Twins, due to the dome, are much more desperate to get people in the seats so they need promo crap. I had never really noticed it, until my buddy who I was with who grew up going to games at Camden in Baltimore, pointed it out. I really hope it goes away when the Team moves to the new stadium and will be able to get fans to the stadium just to see a game and enjoy (or hide from) the weather. Not because they will have a chance to win a Mystic Lake prize package, or Treasure Island or whatever.

Thoughts About the Closer Role

2008-04-26T00:00:00-07:00

We've had some discussions about the use of the "closer" in the comments on this site, and the prevailing attitude of most of our readers is that the closer role is overrated -- and therefore the Joe Nathan signing was unwise. After Friday night's loss, Howard Sinker has some words about the conventional wisdom of keeping the closer on the bench in extra inning games.

The "closer" is supposed to come into games and end them. Close them out. He pitches those last three outs to finish off the victory. That's all he does. Right? Well, let's think about why you'd have someone called a "closer" who would have that responsibility.

Are the outs in the 9th inning "special" in any way, or somehow more difficult to get than outs in any other inning? Probably not. However, their importance is increased by the fact that there's so much leverage during that time. Performance during these outs has a huge impact on the output of the game. If the pitcher gets outs, the team wins. If the pitcher fails, the team loses. That's quite a bit of leverage.

I think everyone would agree with that, regardless of where they stand on the pro-closer or anti-closer debate. If I'm wrong about that I'm sure someone will let me know.

So you use your closer in the highest leverage situation in the game. He's your best reliever, that's when you should use him. But even though the last three outs intrinsically have a higher leverage than "normal" outs, is the final inning when your team has the lead really the highest leverage situation? Always?

When you're winning by one run, going into the 9th inning, and the middle of the order is coming up ... obviously that's a high leverage situation where you'd want your closer available. So you bring him in and he gets the "save."

But when you're winning by three runs and the bottom of the order is coming up ... that's not a very high leverage situation. You should hope that you could trust every reliever in your bullpen to get through that inning without surrendering the lead. But you bring in the closer and he gets the "save."

These are just examples, obviously. And they're the opposite ends of that spectrum. But imagine the inning before that. Say there are two men on base, 1 out, and the middle of the order is up. These are high-leverage outs. If you end this inning cleanly, you have a good chance of going on to win the game (since you'd be winning by 3 and the bottom of the order is up, and any reliever on your team can handle that). But if you blow it, you may well lose the game. Whoever can get you out of the inning has "saved" the day. Would you bring in your best reliever, or an inferior reliever?

Most people would say "bring in the best reliever!" And they'd probably look at me like I'm being an idiot for even asking the question. But then you give these guys titles. Do you bring in The Closer or a Setup Man? Well ... then the answer might change. Especially if you're a manager. "Closers close games!" So the manager brings in the inferior reliever, and Detroit beats us twice in a row because of it. Oops. I mean ... the team's chances of getting the win drop dramatically. Kind of slipped there, I guess.

But that brings us to the reason I'm bringing this up today. Last night, the Twins lost in the 10th inning to the Rangers, ending their 7 game losing streak. The heart of the Rangers' order, the 3-4-5 hitters, were due up in the 10th. In a tie game, where any run could end the game, we had two guys warmed up in the pen. Joe Nathan, elite reliever vs Juan Rincon, washed up former juicer with arm problems and diminished abilities (and an ERA filled with crooked numbers). To the untrained eye, this seems like a no-brainer: it's a high leverage situation where you should use your best pitcher! But that's just what an untrained observer thinks! He's not a major league manager like Ron Gardenhire, who knows that Joe Nathan is The Closer, and therefore he can only pitch when we're already winning. So Rincon pitches the 10th ... and we lose.

Maybe we would have lost the game anyway. We hadn't scored for 8 innings, and Rincon would probably have had to pitch the 11th whether we had the lead or not (though it would have been the bottom of the order). But that's not how a manager should be thinking during the game. He's supposed to put the team in the best situation to win; give us the best chance. And putting your best reliever on the mound to get the toughest outs is one of the few things he can actually do during a game to change the outcome of the game. So last night's decision was a bad one. In the "humble" opinion of this addled blogger, anyhow.

I'll finish by pointing out that, unsurprisingly, I did not address Nathan's contract here. I don't fault the GM for signing the contract. There's nothing at all wrong with having an elite reliever on your team, and there's nothing wrong with paying him at the same rate as his (lesser) peers. I fault the manager for misusing Nathan's elite services. Someday I'll write a post about how I care more about "baseball" than the "business of baseball," and I'd rather think about what the manager could do to improve our chances of winning a game than think about what the GM could have done to get us a better deal on someone's contract. I can watch baseball games. I can't (and wouldn't) watch contract negotiations. But today is not that day, so I'm not going to write about it. (This paragraph is a "subtle" request that we all try not to talk about the contract. In case you missed that.)

Patience Shows Immediate Impact in 12 Run Outburst

2008-04-26T00:00:00-07:00

Over the past couple of days, Gardy has tried to revamp the Twins' offensive philosophy by encouraging the players to work the count and wait for their pitch to hit, and he's revamped the lineup by moving hitters down the lineup "because it stretches our lineup down there pretty good."

I really liked the former move, and have been calling for it for a while. The latter, however, makes little sense to me; usually, when you construct a lineup, you want balance and you want the best hitters close to the top of the order. That's why I don't know why you'd want to move Tolbert and Harris up at the expense of Cuddyer, Kubel, and Young.

It's only one game, but could Saturday's 12-6 win over the Rangers showcase some early results of both decisions? Obviously, it's only one game, and anything can happen. But you have to start somewhere, and I think it's amusing that such an "example game" could happen so quickly. We'll probably come back to this issue again later in the season and see how things have gone over a longer period.

Anyhow, how'd Gardy do? Read on!

Well, we scored 12 runs, so something must have worked! A big reason for the runs was the collapse of the Rangers' defense, which committed three errors that led to 5 unearned runs. But there was more to it than that.

The Twins chased the starter -- Sidney Ponson -- from the game after 5.1 innings, having thrown 93 pitches. In all, the Twins saw 176 pitches in the game, from 5 different pitchers. This is despite the fact that the umpire seemed to be favoring the pitchers for much of the game, being generous with the corners (for both sides -- consistency makes that 100% okay). The newfound focus on making opposing pitchers work showed immediate dividends; we get to see all their pitches and get deep into their bullpen, where inferior pitchers tend to live. I'd venture to say that it seems pretty obvious that this would result in increased offensive production, and I'm surprised any manager would be against it.

Interestingly, despite working deeper into counts and showing more patience at the plate, we only drew 3 walks (compared to 5 strike outs). That's a good demonstration that the benefit of patience at the plate is not just walks, but the increased ability to hit (16 hits). Walks would help, but they're not required.

So what about the decision to push the lineup down? The 6-9 spots in the order (Kubel-Young-Lamb-Monroe) combined to go 9-18 with 6 RBI. The 5 spot (Cuddyer) drove in 3 with a home run in the 8th. The 1 spot (Tolbert) went 0-6, but got on base via an error and stole a base (late in the game, mitigating the usefulness of "leading off"). He was the only Twins player not to collect a hit in the game.

I think it's inappropriate to complain much when the offense is clicking like this. If this is the lineup that can score like this, then it works and we'd do well to stick with it. However, in the interest of constant improvement, might it not work better to try to push the productive hitters up in the order and move the plucky "gamer" to the bottom of the order where he can still be a sparkplug late in games? (By the way, the Rangers' commentators described Tolbert as "David Eckstein, only taller!")

I'm not complaining; instead, I'm offering what I consider to be constructive criticism. And when everyone in the lineup is hitting, it doesn't matter that much what order they go in. So maybe I was wrong that this was a great game to judge the lineup choice -- I was trying to highlight the fact that most of the offensive production came from the bottom of the order (which is true), but everyone was producing.

Finally, the offensive outburst gave us a chance to give Bobby Korecky a very low percentage inning for his major league debut. He struggled, requiring 25 pitches to get through the inning (only 11 strikes), while walking 2 batters and striking out 0. With the bases loaded and nobody out, Rick Anderson went to the mound and Korecky immediately got a double play ball (which scored the run from third) and then forced an easy grounder to Morneau to end the game. It would have been better to see him dominate and show better command, but I think this outing is acceptable for four reasons. One, it very well could have been first-time jitters, and those may now be gone. Two, he demonstrated the ability not to shut down in the face of pressure. Three, when he finally started commanding his pitches, he was getting guys to put the ball on the ground. Four, he was a closer in the minors, and it's very possible that he's not used to pitching in "non-save" situations. (Pitching is very mental, and it's possible that this makes a difference for some guys -- this is the one reason managers may legitimately have for saving The Closer for save situations, but I think it depends entirely on the mental makeup of the individual pitchers, making it the manager's call. Just like some guys can't be closers, it's certainly possible that some guys have to be.) So the jury's obviously still out on Korecky, but if we can start to trust him in high leverage situations in the 7th and 8th innings it'll take a lot of the load off of Guerrier and Neshek. That would be fantastic.

Gardy Sets His "Lineup"

2008-04-26T00:00:00-07:00

After two years of insisting that Mauer and Morneau simply can't hit back to back because they're left handed, Gardy's had them hitting 3 and 4 for a few weeks, since Cuddyer's injury. It seemed like a temporary situation which would end once Cuddyer came off the DL. Well, he came back and instead of going into the 3 hole, Gardy put him at #5 and left Mauer and Morneau together, saying:

"I kind of like those guys together," Gardenhire said. "I don't mind that the lefties are back-to-back at all."

It's kind of refreshing to see him start to overcome that particular phobia, but it causes other problems. Namely, that Young and Kubel are now pushed pretty far down the lineup. Young batted 7th, which I think can have two possible effects on his development. One possibility is that it takes a little pressure off him, he starts to hit and gain confidence, and he becomes the hitter we paid for. The other is that he'll see it as evidence that we don't trust him, it'll completely shake his confidence in himself and his trust in the team, he'll get worse on the field, and off-the-field problems may surface. That's obviously a little alarmist, and the downside probably isn't as bad as all that. The Twins have usually been pretty good about moving a guy down in the lineup to help him get his feet under him -- I'm just hoping the Twins have thought about it.

"He still hasn't driven the ball like we expect him to do here," Gardenhire said. "Maybe the warm weather is going to really help him. ... But he's starting to jerk some balls pretty good. He'll get better. I like [him in the seventh spot] because it stretches our lineup down there pretty good."

It doesn't really sound like that's what Gardy was doing. He's just hoping the warm weather helps (is anyone else getting more worried about the new stadium every day?), and he likes stretching the lineup down. Down? I mean, having a strong bottom of the lineup is always a good thing ... but I think I'd rather move the strength up, and get the good hitters on the team more at bats. My lineup advice continues to remain the same, and Gardy's changing things around, but he seems to be specifically doing the opposite of what we've been saying is the right way to build a lineup. Typical. By the way, Gardy expects this to be the default lineup for the foreseeable future. Hopefully it scores some runs, at least.

On a somewhat related note, the team apparently also had a hitting meeting.

"We had a hitting meeting today, talking about getting good pitches and situational hitting and we didn't do very well at that."

We've talked about this before, and the Twins have always been pretty bad at waiting for good pitches and making pitchers work. I doubt having a meeting about it will really have that much of an effect, but I think it's a step in the right direction. Unless they're just teaching the wrong things in these meetings, I fully support that and hope the meetings continue. And that it spills over into practices and has an effect on the games.

Gardy Actively Trying to Destroy Delmon Young

2008-04-24T00:00:00-07:00

When the Twins acquired Delmon Young, there were two major question marks that came with him. The first was his off-the-field "problems" (which have so far been a complete non-issue). The second was the fact that he has ZERO plate discipline. The hope was that we'd help him improve that aspect of his game, waiting for his pitches, swinging at better balls (ie, in the strike zone), and taking walks. All of that would drive his OPS up. Well, Gardenhire has other ideas (about 2/3 of the way down):

"I watched Torii Hunter for like 10 years," Gardenhire said. "You think Torii hasn't swung? You know what? There's nothing wrong with swinging. That's why they give you a bat. This kid's 22 years old. He's got everything ahead of him. So let it fly. Learn as you go. He'll learn the strike zone. "To start telling a guy to just 'take, take, take,' sometimes that's just not human nature. You don't get to the big leagues, and you don't become a big league player, by 'take, take, take' and get walks. Some people are paid to drive in runs. You think David Ortiz goes up there to walk? He's paid to drive in runs. He walks because we walk him. On purpose. And that's what's going to happen to Delmon as he goes along, too. Right now, they know he's going to chase a little bit, but that's OK. I'll take my chances with him letting it fly."

Oh great. It's good to see Gardy taking an active role in wasting the natural abilities of yet another young slugger. If the Twins tried to teach Delmon some plate discipline, he just might start to take some walks and punish pitchers for leaving a ball in the zone. Instead, he's going to be Torii Hunter 2.0, except without the above average CF defense.

Perhaps the best part of that quote, though, is Gardy's complete misunderstanding of David Ortiz as a hitter. Ortiz takes walks because teams are too afraid to throw it in the strike zone. Why? Because he punishes balls that are in there. Why? Because he doesn't flail at balls he doesn't like, or ones that are out of the zone. Which, of course, is why he draws a lot of walks. Incidentally, his transformation from "crappy, useless player" to "most feared hitter in baseball" happened immediately after he escaped the swing-destroying tutelage of Gardy and the Twins. (When the Red Sox said: "Bunt? But you're a big strong guy! Kill the ball. And be patient. If you don't like it, swing at the next one." I guess that's a hitting philosophy that works. Just like anecdotal evidence, statistics, wins, World Series rings, and common sense all seem to agree on. Good to see Gardy's complete ignorance of that.)

Here's hoping someone slaps Gardy hard enough that he realizes that this is not how you teach talented young hitters to become feared sluggers. It's how you teach scrappy little dorks how to scratch their way into the big leagues for a cup of tea and a quick designation for assignment (or, if they're on the Twins, a multi-million dollar deal ... but that's a story for another day).

Twins win thanks to Carl Crawford being dumb

2008-04-17T00:00:00-07:00

When i saw Carl Crawford slide to catch that ball in foul territory last night I shouted "idiot!", despite the fact that I was alone in my home. That was a very boneheaded move. It would be one thing to catch it standing up (well maybe not for Crawford because the throws like a girl), but to make a circus catch with one out in the 8th of a tied game with the go ahead runner (with speed) on third? careless. Did he think there were two outs? Possibly, that seems to happen more and more with kids these days. I read in the paper this morning that he was just focused on making the out, not determining fair or foul. Well, that is a lame excuse, but lets run with it. Shouldn't the third baseman or shortstop have been yelling at him to let it drop? Maybe they were and he couldn't hear them over the 10 people who showed up to watch baseball inside on the first truly nice day of spring. As I saw Crawford track that ball down I kept saying to myself (again, aloud) "he's going to let it drop...he's got to let it drop...he's going to catch it! Idiot!"

On to the actual game. Livan looked like the Livan of old. Walks, homers, slow. That 2 run homer he gave up to Riggans. Man. There was no way he COULDN'T homer on that pitch. It was good to see the team hit the ball well. 11 hits. And we do OK with RISP. Mauer seems to have broken out of his slump, hitting the ball well the last two games. He is now back to 300. Gomez looked ok, he is at least exciting to watch. I'm glad to see Kubel as a fixture in the lineup. Its a shame it took an injury to one of our better players to force Gardy into playing... another one of our better players. Idiot!

I wonder how long it will take me to not be nervous when a member of our bulpen steps in I hope Reyes gets paid overtime because he got 4 guys out, compared to his usual one or none. Rincon's fastball looked pretty good, and he got the win. Nathan was, as always, good. I pretty much expect him to give up one baserunner.

Another question, why do people run on Mauer? The two putouts he had were very pretty. I would have loved to see him toss out Bartlett in the ninth, but as they say, 2 out of 3 aint' bad.

Boof is going tonight against someone I have never heard of for Tampa. This weekend is the Indians, who looked terrible last night as CC got shelled. We need to pounce on them.

Did anyone hear Scott Erickson in the booth today. When he and his wife were in there Dick said something along the lines of "Scott, you and your wife are here to talk about a special project" So i'm thinking, great Scott is going to talk about some charity. No. It was a lame movie called "A Plumm Summer" which Scott is exec producing. When asked what he did every day as a produced Scott replied "golf, fly fishing, hang out" Tough life, dude.

Ugh

2008-04-15T00:00:00-07:00

This was the worst game of the year so far. We manage to score 9 runs, and lose. We blew 2 5 run leads. The offense and the pitching looked good for the first few innings. Even after we gave up 4 runs to make it a 5-4 game, we got all 4 of those runs back. Which is something we wouldn't have done in the past.

What really irked me was allowing Punto to hit with the tying run on first. I understand he ALMOST hit a double to tie the game, but that does not excuse the fact that Gardy made a poor call.

On the bright side, we did score 9 runs. That shows how bad the Tigers pitching is. I'm worried this will give them lots of momentum. We need to beat them tonight. To paraphrase Ivan Drago "We must break them".

Liriano's Back

2008-04-14T00:00:00-07:00

Well, sort of. He did pitch yesterday. However, he was clearly not ready as he showed almost complete lack of control of his fastball. He barely threw his slider, which is probably the plan considering the havoc that pitch wrecks on the arm. He gave up four runs, which is a lot, but I think the control and velocity will come back. He didn't show any discomfort, which is great.

That is about all that went great, however. The offense was just plain bad. They seemed to get runners on, but failed to get them over, or get them in. We hit the ball hard several times to left, but it always seemed to hang up there for Mark Tehan. I didn't see the exact stats on what the wind was doing, but that had to be a small factor. It seems that when gomez has an 0 for day, the offense follows suit. Except the other night where all of our hits came from the bottom 4 hitters, that was bizarre.

We have the tigers tonight for two, and the (Devil) Rays for two following that. I hope the Tigers don't snap out of their funk today or tomorrow (or really ever, but that seems impossible).

Former Twin Update: Matt Garza

2008-04-11T00:00:00-07:00

So Matt Garza pulled himself from the (Devil) Rays game the other day in the third inning, claiming some sort of radial nerve issue. He also claims he was throwing with said issue all of last year. This brings up a thorny issue. If the Twins knew about it they owe the Rays compensation, which is usually cash or draft picks. My question is how do they prove this. I'm assuming team doctors keep records of all the players, just like regular doctors. So does MLB have access to the twins medical files? Wouldn't these records change hands as part of the physical most trades are contingent upon?

Here is my professional guess: Garza was pretty desperate to make the major league team last season. There was no way in hell he would have disclosed an injury if it meant derailing his path to the big leagues. I think he either didn't tell the team, or the injury didn't surface until after the trade. Either way, it could get ugly.

Here is an article from Rays Index

April 9: Jason Kubel 6, White Sox 5

2008-04-10T00:00:00-07:00

It was nice to see the lineup produce against a lefty today. For as long as I can remember the Twins have just flat out sucked against left handed pitching. I was unable to watch all of the game because I had my attention on the Wild-Colorado game. I watched the first few innings and it looked like Danks just didn't have it and we took advantage. Gomez drawing a walk was a nice touch, although he then got picked off. Danks did seem to have a nice pickoff move, and I think Gomez hasn't mastered the art of reading a pitcher's pickoff move yet. Hunter was really good at that.

I didn't see Kubel's grand slam, but he came up to the plate with the bases loaded something like 3 times. Baker looked OK, there are worse ways to give up 3 runs than 3 solo jacks. Brian Bass, still terrible.

Can someone explain to me all the position swtiching that took place. Harris moved to first after Lamb moved over there? Then Punto came in at second? The box score doesn't really help explain what went down.

Gardy on Kubel:

"I really believe this guy can hit," manager Ron Gardenhire said. "He's going to get plenty of opportunities this year. ... I think he's healthy in his knees now, we don't hear about that anymore, and now it's time for him to get the at-bats and go. Run with it."--from espn.com recap.

Let's hope he holds true to his word.

April 6: Royals 3, Twins 1

2008-04-06T00:00:00-07:00

The offensive woes continued as the Twins lost a close game to the Royals. Boof looked solid, but again received little run support. The lone run came on a Morneau homer in the 6th. It was a moonshot to the upper deck in right. We seemed to get most of our hits with two outs, and stranded lots of guys. Denard Span made his debut and didn't look terrible. Tolbert has continued to impress me, but I still think he role should be that of a utility player. Its good to see Morneau hitting the ball hard. Kubel also stung the ball pretty good. Harris made a nice play at second as well. Gomez made another bonehead play when he singled to shallow right and decided he should try for a double. Gomez totally could have stolen second pretty easily, so I don't think he should have taken the risk to try to stretch it to a double. I blame Scott Ulger.We still seem to have a problem with stranding runners, and getting the leadoff man on base. I also don't like to have the bottom of the order leading off innings constantly. I know it is very difficult to prevent this, but it is possibly to minimize it. We have a lot of division games coming up, going to chicago tomorrow, and then KC next weekend, with a trip to Detroit after that. This is a perfect time to rack up wins within the division. Detroit is struggling, and Cleveland seems to be starting slowly. Here's to hoping for a successful first road trip.

April 3: Angels 5, Twins 4

2008-04-03T00:00:00-07:00

I was only able to see the first 5 innings of this game, which turned out to be the bad ones. Slowey looked OK until he left the game with, what Joe C is reporting, a bicep strain. Bass didn't look very good, I really am not a fan of that guy, mainly because he really didn't deserve to make the team. The bats were pretty dead through the first 5, but according to the internet the woke up as I was walking from the dome back to my office. Mauer had a good day at the plate with 2 doubles. Morneau finally got his first RBI, and Gomez was again impressive with 2 hits, although no steals. That is understandable considering Ervin was hitting 96 on the gun with ease. Good to see Kubel hit a homer, hopefully that will earn him more ABs. I think Gardy will give more ABs to monroe (we are no longer treating his name as a proper noun) in order to "give Craig-y a chance to catch up". It makes no sense, but that is the kind of logic Gardy will use. Not cool. Gomez had a bunt single, I didn't see it so I'm not sure if it was good or just lucky. He also hit the cutoff man the one time I saw him relay a ball into the infield. Torii got his first homer of the season, I would have liked him to have been 0 for the series, but oh well.We open up a weekend series against KC tomorrow night, they are coming off of a big sweep of the Tigers, so we can't be taking anything for granted. I think we are sending Baker, Livan, and Boof out.

Impotent Lineup: Maybe the Twins Need to Watch Those Viagra/Levitra/Cialis Commercials

2008-04-02T00:00:00-07:00

Nick Blackburn looked fantastic tonight, going 7 innings and giving up only 1 run on 5 hits, 1 walk, and recording six strike outs. I don't think we could have expected him to do any better ... especially considering the way the run finally scored in the 7th inning: infield single, sacrifice bunt, advanced on a groundout, scored on a wild pitch. That's a pretty well-manufactured run.

But given the lineup Gardy saw fit to trotting out there, one thing could be expected: the Twins weren't going to score in this game. Not only did they not score, only one baserunner advanced past first base (Punto, who stole second and advanced to third on an error). The only other baserunner who was actually stranded on base was Cuddyer; everyone else was either caught stealing or doubled up in one of the four double plays we grounded into. And all of them were to the second baseman.

The Twins combined for all of 29 plate appearances. I just wanted to write that explicitly. There are 27 outs in a game ... and we only had 29 batters.

There's not too much to say about this game. The Twins just didn't hit. I realize we were facing a left handed pitcher and it's a day game tomorrow, but by taking Mauer, Kubel, and Lamb out of the lineup, the offense becomes just about as impotent as possible.

Gardy made just a couple of questionable moves:

Why bat Harris second? While it's promising that he doesn't consider the 2nd spot "the catcher's," and just put Redmond there ... Harris isn't much of a #2 hitter. It would probably have been better to just push Cuddyer/Morneau/Young up a spot and put Harris between Punto and Tolbert at the bottom of the order.
Why let Tolbert bat against K-Rod in the 9th when Kubel/Mauer/Lamb are on the bench? I realize Tolbert walked and then was doubled up by Mauer, but that doesn't change the fact that a slap hitting utility infielder with 3 major league at bats led off an inning against an elite right handed closer while 3 good left handed hitters sat idle on the bench.

Finally ... Gomez. He attempted 5 bunts tonight, and all 5 of them went foul. Including the last one, which counted as a strike out in the 9th inning. Gardy has repeatedly said that Gomez needs to learn the game and that as he does, "things will be interesting out there." Well, that was clearly a bone headed move by Gomez. The question I have is this:

Will Gardy manage to teach Gomez the proper thing to do without castrating his exciting offensive personality? Will Gomez still be allowed to use the bunt as a weapon, but be restricted only from using it with 2 strikes, or will Gardy completely muzzle him? How angry is Gardy going to be at Gomez, compared to the rest of the hitless team?

Just something to keep an eye on.

Angels 9 Twins 1

2008-04-02T00:00:00-07:00

The game got off to a terrible start as the Angels ripped pretty much everything Boof threw in the first inning. Even the outs were hit hard. After a leadoff double in the second, he reall seemed to settle down. He didn't give up any more runs until the 5th, and the pitched a scoreless 6th before being taken out. His final line 6ip, 8H, 4R(3 ER), 4Ks and 0BB. Not to bad for his first time back against a good hitting Angels team. The bullpen on the other hand was not good. Crain pitched for the first time since last summer and gave up a run in 2/3 of an inning. Followed by Reyes, who threw two pitches to Anderson and gave up a hit. His night was over quickly. Then Brian Bass came in and gave up 2 runs (1 earned). He didn't look good. He had the bases loaded at one point and prevented a run by throwing home to force out the runner on a chopper right back to him. Some would say he should have turned and fired to second for the double play, but it would be hard to double up Figgins and Matthews, Jr (especially since Matthews has steroids that make him run fast). Rincon didn't fare much better in his first appearance. In fact he fared much worse. There are really only three guys in the pen I trust. Guerrier, Neshek and Nathan. With the game within reach after Bonser left, why not use Guerrier to start the 7th? Maybe Gardy trusts Crain and his bum shoulder more than Guerrier. The game was still in reach at that point.

The offense was downright awful. The only real bright spot was DY, who had 3 hits and scored the only run of the game. Gomez had some pretty good at bats. He wasn't up there hacking like people said he would. He had a nice single at the end of the game but Mauer drilled one right at the SS (or 2b, I don't recall) for an easy DP. That seemed to be the story all night. We had something like 17 groudball outs. Gomez hit a ball deep in the hole at short and almost beat it out, but the Angels have a very good infield defense and we were unable to sneak anything by them. We were facing Jon Garland, a pitcher who we have faced a lot in the past so our inability to do nothing against him was just downright pathetic. I guess we have lots of new bats in the lineup, but Garland is far from special. Oh well, not like we were going to go undefeated all year. I wish Torii the best, but it would be great if he went hitless against us all year.

On a sidenote, late in the game Punto went out to warm up the pitcher while Mauer put his gear on (and Redmond did something much more fun, I'm assuming). As he ran back to the dugout, and old lady sitting behind me yelled "Good job, Nicky!". Do people love him so much that they will cheer for him when he does anything. I think I saw him hand a glass of gatorade to Boof, should I make a sign? The guy is a utility infielder. I'm pretty sure opposing fans who come to the dome think we are the dumbest fans ever. "Why are they cheering that bat boy after he warmed up Brian Bass?" Also, the wave? come on, its 2008. Stop it.

Opening Day: 3-2 Starts the Season Off Right

2008-03-31T00:00:00-07:00

Opening Day. The excitement built by a long winter finally comes to a boil. Everyone wants their team to win, and to look good doing it. Every fan in America wants to be able to continue to hold out hope for at least another night, week, month.

The Twins faced the Angels, and beat them 3-2.

Livan started the game, and made Gardy look pretty good for giving him the Opening Day Nod. He went 7 innings, giving up 2 runs on 7 hits. I didn't expect this kind of an outing, but as pointed out on a comment on this very blog not too long ago, a few of his many Opening Day Starts have been similar to this one.

I remember saying "Hell, if he gives us 7 innings and 2 runs every time, we'll be in good shape!" about one of our pitchers last year. That was Ramon Ortiz. So ... while I'm pleased with Livan's outing, I'm not getting too excited about it.

Carlos Gomez went 2-3, with 1 BB, 2 SB, 2 R. That's an excellent line, and he also did his part to make Gardy look good for giving him the leadoff/CF spot out of Spring Training. He led off the game with a double down the left field line, and scored on Mauer's base hit to center. He also had a bunt base hit to the right side of the infield, reminiscent of Rod Carew.

To reward Gomez's good day at the plate, Gardy had him stay on the field after the game was over to shag fly balls. I understand that this may have been the plan since before the game, to give him some practice catching fly balls under the Baseball-Colored-Sky in the Dome, but given his day at the plate and the numerous fly balls he caught during the game, perhaps it could have waited. (Thanks to FunBobby for the report from the stadium; otherwise I wouldn't have known about Gomez's Sisyphusian punishment.)

While Gomez had a good day at the park in his Twins debut, Torii Hunter didn't have quite as good a time of it wearing a scarlet A for the first time. He went 0-4 despite repeatedly getting resounding, heart-warming standing ovations from 49,000+ of his former fans. It was good to see that Twins Fans still hold Torii close to their hearts, and it really threw Joe Morgan for a loop. I guess he was expecting the Chuck Knoblauch Reception.

Oh yes. One last thing regarding Gardy's management of the lineup. Against the right handed Jered Weaver, he opted to leave Kubel on the bench in favor of Monroe. Before the game, Gardy said he hadn't decided which was going to start, and would have to "look at the numbers again." It was probably too much to hope that he meant that he'd see that Kubel batted .280/.336/.474/.810 against RHP last year, compared to .194/.247/.308/.555 for Monroe. Needless to say, a .255 difference in OPS is simply huge. Joe Morgan defended the decision by talking about the LRLRL order, and that if multiple lefties were in a row, then a left handed reliever could come on late in the game and shut them down.

Well, let's see. Monroe's 0-3 through the first several innings against right handed pitching went a long way towards making Gardy look like a dope. Then, in the 8th inning, Kubel came in to pinch hit against a right handed reliever, and popped a bloop double down the left field line. So he did his job, which was to make Gardy look like even more of a dope.

I fail to see how getting .555 OPS production out of the DH spot is a valid way to protect yourself from having to pinch hit for a lefty against a lefty late in the game. Especially when you prove your willingness to pinch hit your DH platoon late in the game. Could Kubel have gotten a hit off Weaver during tonight's game, and perhaps driven in a couple of runs? His .810 OPS says he has a considerably better chance of it than Monroe did. Maybe Gardy will "look at the numbers again." Then again, maybe he won't.

It's always good to get a win, and to start the season off on the right foot. But we're going to have to get better production from the offense with men in scoring position. And Gardy's going to have to learn that when it comes to OPS, higher is better!

Opening Day

2008-03-31T00:00:00-07:00

Well opening day is finally here. I never thought I'd say this, but God bless the Metrodome. We are supposed to get several inches of snow in Minnesota today, which is not cool. Anyway, today's pitching matchup is Livan Hernandez (RHP) vs. Jared Weaver (RHP). The big question today is will Gardy be smart and start Kubel at DH against the right handed Weaver, or will he be dumb and start Monroe. My money is on Monroe, hopefully I'm wrong. Feel free to toss out predictions. I think Livan will give up a homer to Hunter, and maybe Vlad, too. However, since he was signed to be an innings eater, he will pitch 5 innings or more. Regardless of how many runs he gives up Gardy won't yank him, especially this early in the season. This will cause us to get frustrated (read: drink lots of beers).

It sounds like Liriano will make one start at class A Ft. Myers, and then another 5 days later for Rochester, and the plan is to have him stretched out to 100 pitches by then and then call him up for the third time through the rotation. My guess is Blackburn will then be sent to Rochester, but hopefully Livan has an ERA north of 11 after two starts and Gardy has to get rid of him. This will not happen and we will continue to develop a problem drinking habit over the course of the season. How about some predictions.

AL East: Yankees, AL Central: Indians, AL West: LAA, Wild Card: Boston AL CY young: CC, AL MVP: A-Rod, AL ROY: Longoria, ALDS: Boston over LAA, ALDS: Yankees over Indians. ALCS: Yankees over Boston.

NL: Who cares, they all suck anyway.

That is all, Go Twins!

Let's talk about Livan

2008-03-25T00:00:00-07:00

So Livan Hernandez is our opening day starter. Probably. When we first signed him, I thought, "Great, a back of the rotation starter who can chew up innings and only be slightly below average". Now that we are at the end of spring training we have "Great, a god awful front of the rotation starter who everyone wants to chew up innings, but he will do so with around a 6 era". If Livan is to be expected to pitch his customary 200 innings, we are going to have to concede a loss pretty much every time he pitches. Think about it, in order to keep "project Livan" on track, we are going to have to allow him to average 6 2/3 innings per start for 30 starts. So Gardy can't go pulling him after 2 innings and 5 runs, or else why do we have him? I am pretty sure this topic is a dead horse, but I haven't had the chance to rant about it. Didn't the guy sport a nifty 5+ era in the NL? Imagine what he will post facing the Tigers and Indians over and over again. Not only does he have a high era, but he gives up lots of homers: Hafner, Martinez, Seizmore, Cabrera, Magglio, Sheffield, and so on. So when he pitches it will basically go: Livan 5 or 6 innings, giving up lots of runs then bring in brian bass or someone to finish the game. I guess it conserves our pitchers, but KNOWING you will be down big early every 5th game can't help clubhouse morale. If we are already down a few runs after the top of the first, the offense might start trying to hard, and things will just unravel. I like the idea of using a 10 man double rotation or something. Tony LaRussa did it when he managed in the AL, and he only has a few rings, whatever. Think of it this way, Baker and Bonser could be traditional starts, ideally pitching 6 or 7 quality innings. Then for the other three starts, the "starter" innings are split up between Slowey, Blackburn, Humber, Liriano (for a few months, then he becomes a traditional starter), and Perkins. So starting around May or June we have 3 normal starters (Baker, Bonser, Liriano) and 4 "tag team starters (Slowey, Blackburn, Humber, Perkins). This will allow the 4 younger guys to basically have a season long competition for the rotation in 2009. Just a few thoughts.

Everyone take a lap, except you Span, you're cut.

2008-03-24T00:00:00-07:00

Today was final cut down day for the position players. And it looks like the last men standing are Carlos Gomez and Matt Tolbert. Tolbert really came out of nowhere to earn the utility IF spot. Good for him. Nobody seemed to want it, so he stood up and took it. Buscher was the early spring favorite, but just could produce for all of camp as he seemed to fade down the stretch. Tommy Watkins tried to learn to catch, but having one hit all spring doesn't make you a viable candidate, no matter how many positions you play. Although this theory is disproved by the fact that Nick Punto has a job.

LEN3 also is reporting that Liriano will be sent to AAA and Brian Bass will take the 12th pitching spot. I got no problem with that, but I'd like to see Liriano up in Minneapolis sooner rather than later. Maybe a month or two in the minors depending on how everyone else pitches.

7 days from today.

UPDATE: The Twins have extended Joe Nathan for three years, with a club option for 2012. The average annual salary is 11.25 mil, and there is a 2 million buyout. Not sure what the salary would be for the 4th year, or what the no-trade clause status is. We'll get more info as it becomes available.

Perkins Cut, Guzman Gone

2008-03-23T00:00:00-07:00

The Twins made a couple of moves today, both of which seem somewhat questionable. First, they sent Perkins down to AAA. I had expected Perkins to be given the chance to fight for the 5th spot in the rotation, with his fallback being to start the season in the bullpen as a lefty long-reliever. I haven't heard any word yet on what the plan is for Perkins, or how long the expect him to remain at AAA. According to LEN3, the feeling in the organization is that he needs consistent work after taking most of last year off due to injury. We'll see.

The other move made today was to trade Garrett Guzman to the Nationals. They selected him in the Rule 5 draft, and at the time I'd hoped that their glut of outfielders would make it impossible for Guzman to make the team, thus returning him to the Twins. That appears to have happened, and the Nationals wanted to send him down to the minors. When they offered him back to the Twins, however, we turned him down in favor of a lowly player to be named later.

Guzman was easily one of the best hitters in the minor league system last year, and giving up on him like this is surprising. It's almost impossible that we'll get equal value in return, in the form of this PTBNL. There are a few possibilities here:

There are enough outfielders at the major league level for the foreseeable future that we don't need Guzman
He's blocked at AAA by 2 of Span/Gomez/Pridie
They want to clear out the OF at AAA for the possible advancement of Martin/Benson/Parmelee/Revere, possibly expecting one or more of them to do well this year

If these are true, then the move is at least forgivable. Especially if we get a decent hitter in return. But I'd still like a valid explanation from Wild Bill about why he was so quick to toss away one of the best hitters on the farm. While he may not have been that great, objectively, you can't just throw your guys away like that.

Good Bye Randy Ruiz

2008-03-22T00:00:00-07:00

Well, while we were talking about how excited we were about Randy Ruiz, Gardenhire was crossing his name off the roster. Ruiz has been cut, along with Randy Keisler, Ricky Barrett, Tommy Watkins, and Garrett Jones.

I don't think any of these moves are surprising. Jones just doesn't seem that good to me; sure, when he connects he can send the ball a long way ... but major leaguers need to actually connect more than once every couple weeks. Keisler is old and bad. Barrett is young and not ready (at best). Watkins -- whom I like as a person, from everything I know about him -- just isn't a very good player. (Will he be Punto's replacement in 2009 though?)

And Ruiz, while exciting, doesn't have a position. A year ago, he would have stood out as a DH. But right now we don't have a glaring need for one. If Monroe gets injured or Kubel wastes his opportunity (however much I hope that doesn't happen), Ruiz could be a viable replacement DH. I think it's good to have a guy like that in the system. Hopefully he absolutely crushes AAA pitching.

La Velle thinks the cutting of Keisler and Barrett increases the likelihood of Perkins being in the bullpen. I think the plan all along has been for Perkins to be in the pen this year, and staying stretched out a bit so he can make the occasional spot start. This most recent move doesn't change that at all. However, given the injury problems the rotation is suddenly having, Perkins may not be able to start in the pen. It probably all comes down to the health of Baker, the recovery of Liriano, and the readiness of Slowey and Blackburn. If any of those four isn't quite ready to go, I think Perkins is the replacement.

Twins vs. Reds 3/20

2008-03-21T00:00:00-07:00

Last night the Twins played the Reds in what seemed like it was pretty damn close to a regular season game. The reds started some pretty legit major leaguers, and Homer Bailey was on the mound. The Twins lineup card looked like it probably will against lefties (hopefully just really tough ones, because Kubel didn't start) during the regular season. I'm just recapping from the box score, but it looks like everything went well. We scored 4 runs off a good pitcher, we only drew 2 walks (Mauer and Morneau-no surprise there), Slowey looked (in the box score) good, pitching 5 innings with 3 hits, no runs, no walks, and 5k's. If that doesn't solidfy him a spot in the rotation , I don't know what will. Rincon, Nathan, and Crain then completed the shutout. Twins pitchers walked one batter all day. Impressive. Mike Lamb made an error, not shocking I think he is still getting used to the idea of being an everyday third baseman. Harris and Gomez had steals. Giving Carlos NINE for the spring, that is awesome. He also had two hits including a double, raising his spring average to 267. I think he pretty much has the job locked up. Not much to harp on from this game. The lack of walks drawn by the lineup is disconcerting, but not that shocking.

Randy Ruiz

2008-03-20T00:00:00-07:00

Happy first tourney day everyone! I've been casually following this Randy Ruiz fellow the twins have at camp, and man, he can really mash the ball. I'm starting to root for him to get the final bench spot. This does bring up a few problems. Ruiz has no glove, he can maybe play first. Maybe. He provides good right handed power off the bench, which the twins need. Just to double check, our position players so far are: Mauer, Redmond, Morneau, Harris, Punto, Everett, Lamb, Kubel, Monroe, Cuddyer, Young, CF. Assuming we carry 12 pitchers, this leaves one spot on the bench. When kubel is DHing (hopefully more often than not) the bench consists of Monroe, Punto, Redmond. Does Monroe/Kubel count as our 5th outfielder as well as our DH or is Gardy planning on carrying an additional backup OF? I would say as of now Buscher has the leg up for the final spot because of his ability to play third (and quite well, too). Ruiz will be a nice option if someone gets hurt (I'm looking at your Monroe) to come up from AAA and be a masher off the bench. With Buscher and Monroe (or eventually Ruiz replacing one of them) that gives us nice power options on the bench. Something we haven't had in a while, if ever. In the past few years our best power option off the bench was L-Rod. I have a good feeling about this lineup. However, I doubt Gardy will maximize its potential and they will do much worse than they should. I realize this post wasn't Ruiz-centric, but I needed a title. And I'm out of witty slogans like "Tuesdays with Gardy". "Thursdays with Ulger"? who would want to spend Thursday with him? Only Gardy.

Tuesdays with Gardy

2008-03-18T00:00:00-07:00

Liriano has looked very Livan-esque in his handful of starts so far. I do not think this should be a huge concern. Everyone knew it would take time, and three spring starts isn't enough to get him back into shape. Apparently his slider showed more bite yesterday, but his velocity was down. I am worried however, that the front office people claim Rochester is not an option. Why? Wouldn't it be better if he was starting in triple A, working on his arm strength, than in the Majors working in long relief. Although, with the rotation it looks like the twins will trot out in two weeks (some combo of Livan, Baker, Bonser, Slowey, Blackburn and Humber) long relievers might get a fair amount of work in. Even more if Baker's back problems/flu persist. Sidenote: Is everyone on the team deathly ill now? It seems as though the stomach flu or something is going arond. Isn't it hard to get the flu and the common cold while in florida, isn't that why old people move there? I'm not a doctor, but it seems strange. Although I guess with all the time these guys spend together in very close quarters, if one person is sick, everyone is sick.

Also, it seems as if very few people have mentioned how well Bonser has actually pitched so far this spring. His change-up has been impressive, and he plans to use it more this season. It seems like everyone just wants to talk about how much weight he has lost. We got it, he is skinny (relatively) and we all know why. He exercised and ate well, no secret there. Lets move on and talk about baseball not miracle diets.

Gardy actually made a statement that I 100% agree with. He said Casilla might be better off being the Twins SS of the future. At short his great range and arm are more useful than at second. As Gleemanpointed out today, Gardy could fall in love with Adam Everett if he exhibits the all glove, no bat style of play that Gardy seems to favor over all glove, all bat. This move will also help considering the lack of major league ready shortstops in the Twins system. I think we can erase 2007 from Casilla's stat sheet because the way Gardy jerked him around seemed to really mess with him. Hopefully he has grown up since then and can roll with the punches a little better.

Sunday Gardy Mishaps

2008-03-16T00:00:00-07:00

Sometimes Gardy manages to outdo himself. I really ... I mean ... I can't say anything about it. Quote:

“Robin Williams would fit right now for us. He’d be my guy -- multi-talented, lots of different characters. I think he could play anywhere,” Gardenhire said. “If it gets down to that and we all need to get a celebrity in there, it’s either going to be Garth Brooks or Robin Williams, I can’t decide which.”

Robin Williams or Garth Brooks? Seriously? I think Gardy misunderstands the "Twins Way" to mean "unathletic, banjo-hitting, uncoordinated, and untalented." Frankly, I think this quote says all there is to say about Gardenhire as a manager.

Also got this little tidbit from Phil Miller:

Anyway, I stood behind the batting cage for awhile, and heard Nick Punto and Tommy Watkins -- each of them have only one hit this spring -- joking about “not wanting to peak too early.” They’re obviously feeling a little pressure to get going, but they’re keeping their sense of humor.

Yes. At least they have a sense of humor about not being able to hit the ball. Really, that's the most important thing. Not, you know, starting to hit the ball. Fortunately for them, Gardy seems to share their misguided sense of humor. In today's game, Everett is leading off (Gomez bats 9th), and Punto is the DH. If you can come up with two worse decisions for the lineup, I'd like to hear them.

If nothing else, Gardy seems to want to give us plenty of fuel. Inexplicable.

Call Him "Ace"

2008-03-12T00:00:00-07:00

Well, leave it to Gardy to screw up the pitching staff as badly as the lineup. Reports are coming out today that he's planning to use Livan Hernandez as the Opening Day Starter. That's right. The "ace" of our staff is the fourth best pitcher in the rotation (at best).

Why? you may ask. Why would someone do such a thing. Well, it's quite simple, really.

"He knows how to pitch; he's done it," Gardenhire said. "He's proven himself in this league, and I think he probably has another level. I think we've seen it before, so we've kind of learned not to panic."

It's a good thing "making starts" is more important than doing well in them. (Livan's spring stats: 1-1 with an 8.00 ERA in three starts.) And it's good to know that Gardy values "sucking for a long time" over "performance on the field." I don't even see how the two compare.

Livan has made 8 Opening Day starts in his career, with the Marlins, Giants, Expos, and Nationals. I find it difficult to believe that Gardenhire can't connect the dots here. What do all four of those teams have in common? Do we really want to put Twins on that list of "Most Pathetic Franchises in the League?"

While I don't think there's a clear cut option for an Opening Day starter on this team (because Liriano probably won't be ready), I do think Livan is about the worst option. I'd much rather have Baker, Boof, Slowey, Blackburn, Humber, FunBobby, or my little sister make the first start than Livan Hernandez.

Maybe I'm wrong. But I just get a little more excited about "young guys who look like they might be good" than "old guys who've proven they suck by sucking consistently for 10 years." Gardy clearly disagrees.

Kyle Lohse, You Suck!

2008-03-11T00:00:00-07:00

Who does Kyle Lohse think he is? While Scott Boras may be crying collusion, I just think GMs realize signing Lohse to a long term contract isn't a wise investment. He is inconsistent on the mound, and unstable in the head. Why pay him lots of money for a long time. Boras is willing to allow Lohse to sit out April, and even May in the hopes teams will get desperate for a healthy starting pitcher and a bidding war will start. I don't see this happening. Teams have shown a willingness to hand the ball over to young pitchers from their own system, and try to win with them. I think Lohse needs to swallow his pride, and accept whatever minor league or 1 year deal he is offered. He can't really afford to miss all of spring training, and part of the season. Roger Clemens could because he was really good (steroids asides, he was a damn fine pitcher). Kyle Lohse is not the Rocket and can't come in mid season and dominate opposing lineups. He is a back of the rotation starter, and he needs to realize he isn't an ace. His career could take a turn for the worse, if like Keyshawn Johnson who didn't realize he was actually a possession receiver, he doesn't wake up.

Monday Musings

2008-03-10T00:00:00-07:00

Friend of FireGardy.com, Grizz, will be making the trek down to spring training in a few days. I doubt he and his band of merry men will have access to a computer, so I will make attempts to talk to them via telephone and update the site that way. Also, I will be trying to convice them to take a tire iron to Nick Punto's head. Or to Gardy's for playing him so damn much.

Has anyone else been as disappointed with Brendan Harris as I have. I mean, I though he was going to be the clear cut starter at second, basically handed the job. However, he has played like garbage, Punto is still Punto, and Casilla has played very well. You'd think this would be a no-brainer, give the job to Casilla. But no. Gardy will make this hard. As has been discussed in this space before, Gardy loves guys who can "catch the ball" and everything else is just gravy. No! Baseball has many aspects. Let's say we have 3, to keep it simple: hitting, fielding, baserunning. Punto is well below average at hitting, below average at baserunning, and average (at best) at fielding. So overall that makes him a below average player. Is Gardy ignoring two thirds of the game here? Possibly more if you were to break hitting down into more categories (average, power, eye, etc.). This is just not good. I really expected Harris to come in and take the job from day 1, thus making Gardy's decision for him. He didn't do this, so now Gardy must actually make a managerial decision, and he isn't good at that.

Gardy vs The Leadoff Spot

2008-03-08T00:00:00-08:00

Gardenhire has said some dumb, contradictory things in his day, but his comments this spring about the CF/leadoff battle seem to stand out.

"Sometimes with young hitters, people say they're not ready to be a
leadoff hitter -- his on-base percentage, whatever," Gardenhire said,
"but sometimes with young hitters it's better to get them 500-550
at-bats rather than worry about that on-base percentage, and just let
them play."

That's fine ... except that getting on base in front of the middle of the order is perhaps the most important thing about being a leadoff hitter. So it doesn't exactly fall into "whatever" territory. And you don't use the leadoff spot in the major leagues to develop young, inexperienced hitters. You use it to set the table and generate runs. Young hitters can develop at the major league level in the 7-9 spots, and move up to the higher-pressure, higher-demands leadoff spot once they've gained some valuable experience (and, ideally, proven themselves).

Also, I'd like to know when he developed this attitude toward giving promising young hitters consistent at bats in order to develop them properly, and why he continues to refuse to do it with Kubel.

Given that OBP is so important for the leadoff hitter, and that none of the potential center fielders -- though fast -- have shown any consistent ability to get on base, I've been pushing for the possibility of putting Mauer at the top of an unconventional lineup. Basically moving everyone up a slot, giving 50-70 more at bats to each of your best hitters, creating the potential to score more runs and win more games But would Gardenhire be willing to take any kind of risk with the lineup?

"Sometimes you just have to go against the grain a little bit, and
obviously this year we'll probably end up going against the grain with
a leadoff guy," Gardenhire said. "The one thing you won't want to miss
is that first at-bat. We don't know what's going to happen with it, and
I'm sure no one else will either."

Well, he claims he wants to be risky. But his "risk" is to put an inexperienced young hitter at the top of the order; worse, one who has never even had a good OBP in the minor leagues (I can make that statement without even knowing which of the young CFers will get the job -- which is pathetic).

While he may think this a risk, it seems much more likely that it's just stupid. And while he thinks he's going to make the first at bat of the game exciting, I'd say he's just being foolhardy.

3/8 vs Pirates

2008-03-08T00:00:00-08:00

Today the Twins played the Pirates. I get to listen to it on the radio. I'm going to try to change my format here, splitting it up by player, giving brief reports about each of their performances. I think this will be better than going in chronological order. Also, it'll be nice to record a little more information about the at bats than statistics can give you. We'll see how this works.

Pridie

Easy fly ball to left field to lead off the 3rd inning
Got a broken bat ground ball up the middle in the 4th, and managed to beat out the throw because it was hit so slowly (it wasn't much of a hit)

Mauer

Made a good throw to 2nd on a steal attempt in the 1st inning; it would have been an out if Harris had caught it
Took some strikes, but drew a walk in the 3rd; scored from 1st on Cuddyer's double (his legs seem okay)

Cuddyer

Absolutely crushed a ball to left center field, hitting high off the wall; drove in Mauer from 1st base in the 3rd inning
Advanced to 3rd base on a wild pitch; this was pretty head's up baserunning, as the ball didn't get far from the catcher, but it got just far enough (still sounded risky though)
Sneaked a lightly hit grounder up the middle for a base hit; the shortstop couldn't quite handle it (it wasn't much of a hit)

Morneau

Struck out to end the first inning, with a man on base
Hit a sac fly in the 3rd, on a 3-2 pitch, after fouling several pitches off; he's still not making solid contact this spring
Hit a double down the right field line, hitting the chalk and driving in 2 runs in the 4th inning; it was "hit decent" according to the commentators

Monroe

Led off the second inning with a rocket line drive that the third baseman got his glove on
Blasted a solo homer on a line drive over the left field wall in the 3rd inning; the wind was trying to keep it in the park, but he got more than enough of it

Kubel

Weak grounder to second base in the 2nd inning
Followed Monroe's homer with an even longer home run, this one high and majestic, getting into the "jetstream" and carrying well over the fence

Buscher

Worked a 3-1 count, then swung through a breaking ball (clearly thought it would be a fastball); drew a walk on the next pitch, recognizing the offspeed pitch

Tolbert

Dropped a popup behind the mound in the first; according to the Pittsburgh commentators, he collided with either Harris or Baker
Weak popout to the third baseman in foul territory to end the 2nd inning

Harris

Dropped Mauer's throw to second on a steal attempt in the 1st
Roped a line drive base hit to left field on a 3-2 pitch in the 2nd
Made a good play on a grounder up the middle in the 2nd inning; had to move a long way to get to the ball, and threw across his body to get the out

Baker

Easily worked through the first inning despite an error
Labored in the second inning; gave up a hard base hit and a walk, before getting a strike out and a ground out to second base to end the inning

Duensing

Replaced Baker in the third, and absolutely blew the Pirates away with a 1-2-3 inning
Gave up a walk followed by a long, looong home run to Adam LaRoche in the 4th inning to end the "shutout bid"
Followed that by giving up a wind aided home run; it wouldn't have been a home run except for the wind
Gave up another walk, then hit a batter on an 0-2 pitch, and walked the following batter load the bases
That ends his stint, after having been unable to record an out in his second inning of work (3 BB, 1 HBP, 2 HR in an inning -- or a whole game -- is pretty terrible)

Rincon

Replaced Duensing in the 4th, with nobody out and the bases full; say what you will about Rincon, that's just a crappy way to have to enter the game
Struck out the first batter he faced, swinging
Struck out the second batter he faced, swinging
Gave up a warning track fly ball that Cuddyer corralled in right to end the inning
I'm pretty sure performances like that are what managers mean when they talk about a "veteran presence on the mound;" great job by Rincon

Daigle

Replaced Rincon in the 5th, and got an easy 1-2-3 inning

After a 1-2-3 top of the 5th, the Twins pulled most of the starters, with a 6-3 lead. This is usually the part of spring training games that starts to get les exciting, given that the good players are gone. I probably won't have many updates from here on in.

I will say that the power display by Monroe and Kubel was good, and Morneau finally made some "decent" contact on his double. Cuddyer made even better contact on his double, and Mauer showed some good speed on the bases.

Harris and Tolbert both looked pretty bad. Buscher didn't do much today. Duensing went from looking very strong to completely losing it in his second inning.

Today was a mixed bag; hopefully Gardy learns some good lessons from it and it helps him make the correct evaluations.

Notable Split Squad Performances

2008-03-07T00:00:00-08:00

The Twins played well today, winning two games. 7-2 over the Red Sox and 4-0 over the Blue Jays in split squad action. With so much action today, I thought I'd just give a recap of the day's notable performances.

Liriano
- Apparently throwing in the low 90's, Liriano looked decent in his spring debut. He went 1.2 innings hitting a wall in the second inning after a good first in which he struck out Manny Ramirez on a changeup. They say velocity increases throughout the spring, so don't worry about his fastball; it'll speed up. He couldn't control the slider, which is also unsurprising: the breaking balls are the hardest to get a handle on.
Gomez
- He's clearly giving it his all to win a spot with the big club. He led off the game with a bunt single, and stole second on the next pitch. He later scored on Delmon Young's RBI base hit. In his second at bat, he failed to move a runner from second to third with a grounder to the right side ... instead poking an RBI triple down the right field line. He nearly fell down between second and third. He scored on Punto's squeeze bunt; he had it beat, but decided to slide anyway for style points.
- Gomez clearly has a lot of promise, but he's been making a huge number of mistakes. He needs to learn to turn the corner around the bases without falling down, and when to hit the cutoff man. But his presence on the bases is clearly disruptive. Plus, he's hilarious.
- His 2 hits brought his average up to .222.
Span
- Went 0-4, bringing his average down to .167. He's not helping his cause, despite his highly-reported confidence. He did have a steal and a run scored, though.
Morneau
- Went 1-3 with a 2 run HR in the first inning. Morneau's been struggling so far this spring, with just a .235 average. Hopefully he starts seeing the ball a bit better soon.
Monroe
- He's been injured, but connected on a home run on the first pitch he saw today. It looks like he'll be somewhat valuable for us this year, and has the "comeback" attitude that he needs to have. The only concern I have is that he may steal too many at bats from Kubel.
Kubel
- Went 1-4 with 2 RBI and 1 SB. His average is hanging at .231 in his limited action. Gardenhire is continuing to do what he can to keep the bat out of Kubel's hands, and I still haven't seen any reason for it.
Humber
- After his poor start against Concordia's aluminum bats, Humber has rebounded nicely. Today he went 2 scoreless innings, giving up only 1 hit while striking out 3. His spring ERA is 0.00.
Mulvey
- Continues to pitch well, not allowing a baserunner in his 2 innings, striking out 3. His spring ERA is 2.25. The pitchers we got from the Mets have looked better than expected.
Blackburn
- Bailed out Liriano with an excellent 1.1 innings. His spring has been brilliant, and he's definitely raised his stock.
Perkins
- Gave up 2 hits and 1 walk in his 3 scoreless innings, racking up 3 strike outs. He's been on and off this spring, but this was definitely an "on" performance.
Buscher
- Got his first start at first base today, going 1-4 to drop his average to .333. He continues to carry a hot bat this spring, giving Lamb a run for his money for the starting third base job. Regardless, he may prove himself to be another valuable weapon off the bench if Gardy penalizes him for not being washed up yet.
Young
- The DelBat is awesome. He went 1-3 today, driving in his 5th RBI of the spring. His average is now .563, and is swinging it like a superstar. It's beginning to look like no price was too high to get this guy on our team.

For the first few games of Spring Training, things looked bad. The Twins just didn't look ready to play. But now they are ready to play, and there are a lot of reasons to be excited about this team. The CF battle is entertaining at the very least, Liriano is always electric on the mound, Delmon Young slides in and immediately becomes the best hitter in a surprisingly promising middle of the order, Buscher is showing definite promise, Casilla is playing like the experience he got last year did him good, and Humber/Mulvey have pitched better than their scouting reports indicated.

Perhaps best of all ... the Twins have crushed every highly touted East Coast prospect that the Yankees and Red Sox tried to lowball us with. Buchholz, Lester, Kennedy, Chamberlain ... have all been rocked by the "lowly" Twins' offense. Of course it's still early, but it definitely feels good to make those teams thing they made a mistake by not selling high on their overhyped prospects.

Gleeman's Top 40

2008-03-05T00:00:00-08:00

Almost as good as Kasey Kasem's American Top 40, Aaron Gleeman has been producing a list of the top 40 prospects in the Twins farm system. He came out with his top 10 this week. Not surprisingly, it was VERY pitching heavy, as we all know the Twins don't have much in terms of young hitting talent. They are starting to amass some in the lower ranks, but not much that is major league ready. I was happy to see that probably for the first time since Joe Mauer was a prospect, the number 1 prospect in the Twins system was a position player. Carlos Gomez took the spot this year, which isn't surprising. I am very excited about this guy, and blame his terrible numbers with the Mets last year on being rushed through the system and the Mets below average minor league talent developers. The Mets have really only had two good home grown players in recent memory: David Wright and Jose Reyes. Three if you count John Maine. With a half or full season of, well seasoning, Gomez has the opportunity to be a very exciting Jose Reyes type player. He already has excellent baserunning ability, this is NOT the same thing as speed, and defense. His OBP has steadily increased over his career at various minor leauge levels, so that is encouraging. I would say give him a year (or half) in Rochester away from Gardy's terrible treatment of youngsters, and he will be making us say Torii Who? in no time.

Late Homers Sink, Then Lift Twins

2008-03-03T00:00:00-08:00

This afternoon the Twins faced the Reds, and Glen Perkins got the start. He gave up one run in his 2 innings, walking two batters.

Daigle and Day were both touched up for multiple runs in their outings; Day's was especially bad, as it came in the eighth inning and surrendered the lead. Humber, Bass, and Gomez had scoreless performances.

The hitting was more suspect than the 8-6 final score suggests. Gomez, Mauer, Morneau, and Young each had only one hit; Lamb went 0-3. The best hitter on the day was Ruiz, who went 2-4 with a HR (in the 9th inning, off a nobody minor leaguer). Worse, Morneau grounded into yet another double play (he hits into at least one every time he's in the lineup). He'll need to figure that out if he's going to bat cleanup.

The Twins were winning 4-3 before Day gave up a 3 run homer to make it 6-4. Ruiz tied it with a 2 run shot in the 9th, and the teams elected to play extra innings. Basak ended the game with a 2 run homer in the bottom of the 10th.

Any time you come back in the late innings of a spring training game, it doesn't mean as much. (By the same token, the Reds came back in the late innings too; I think these two clubs just don't have very deep farm systems right now.) That said, a win is a win, and we're up to 2-3 on the (fake) season.

3/1 vs Boston

2008-03-01T00:00:00-08:00

Today's game isn't televised, so I have to listen to it on the radio. Worse, I'm not getting the Twins' feed, so I have to listen to the Boston commentators. I'll be updating this with my thoughts as the game progresses. We'll see how this works, and maybe I can do it sometimes during the season.

Randy Keisler got the start today. I'm interested in learning why the Twins even have him in camp. He's 32 years old and has never been good. I'm sure they have their reasons. I just want to know what they are. Non-roster invitees are pretty cheap, and easy to come by -- they're probably just trying to see what he can do. Still, I'd rather see Perkins, Blackburn, Mulvey, and the rest of the young guys get the starts (and innings) in Spring Training.

He shut down the Red Sox pretty effectively in the first inning though, giving up just one hit (a solid liner over the shortstop). Other than that, the Sox didn't make good contact against him.

Gomez led off with a bloop single. He's finally got his first hit as a Twin. He quickly followed it with a steal -- on the first pitch by the left handed Lester. The catcher had no chance to get him out. The Boston commentator was very impressed by his speed. After Mauer drew a walk, Gomez took third on a wild pitch that got about five feet behind the catcher. On the next pitch, Delmon Young drew a walk -- perhaps his prediction of drawing 50 walks if he bats in front of Morneau will turn out to be accurate. Morneau drove in Gomez with a weak bases loaded double play to the shortstop. He's definitely going to need to take advantage of bases loaded, no out situations; he may have been pressing to do too much.

In the top of the second, Keisler gave up a walk, followed by a solid double to left-center that scored a run to tie it at 1-1. He must have been rattled by that, because he proceeded to walk the next two batters to load the bases. Gardy stormed angrily from the dugout and quickly yanked Keisler from the game. The commentator joked that Keisler's tenure with the Twins organization might be close to an end. Given the organizational hatred for walks, I have to think they're probably right. Blackburn replaced Keisler.

Blackburn's first batter hit an easy grounder to second base, with the infield back. Casilla deemed that he didn't have a shot at a double play ... and fired the ball to the plate. Mauer stretched like a first baseman and we got the force out. Pretty gutsy play by Casilla, but if it works, do it.

The next batter hit a sharp grounder past third base, scoring two more runs. Delmon Young fielded it and fired to second, getting the hitter out as he tried to stretch it to a double. When we have Young/Gomez/Cuddyer in the outfield, teams are going to have to learn that they just can't advance to the next base. That ended the inning, but it's now 3-1.

Garrett Jones had men on first and second with no outs, and topped a weak grounder to the first baseman. A poor play by Casey allowed everyone to be safe, but I don't like that hit. Morneau did that so often last year; stats guys see that stuff and think "his BABIP is too low, that'll regress to the mean and he'll get better," but I find it difficult to believe that a weak grounder to first will slip through very often. I think these left handed power hitters just have to stay back, be patient, and try to make better contact. (Not all contact is the same, which is the problem I have with simply looking at BABIP.)

Lester's day is done after walking Casilla to force a run in. That's 4 walks and 5 runs in 1+ innings of work for Lester. The commentator said that Lester's "biggest problem in his career has been throwing strikes," which may be a big reason the Twins didn't rate him as highly as the Red Sox in their Johan negotiations.

Delmon Young crushed an RBI base hit to right field. He hit it so hard that Casilla wasn't able to score from second. That's promising ... if he can hit those such that they're not directly at the outfielders, he'll be getting a lot of extra base hits this year.

Jones made a diving catch in RF after completely misjudging a fly ball. He was extremely fortunate to be able to make that adjustment. It looks like he's still not really an outfielder.

Rincon got through an easy 1-2-3 fourth inning. I like that.

Mauer led off the 4th with a base hit off Papelbon; he was then lifted for pinch runner Butera. This is the worst (and, in some cases, best) thing about Spring Training. By the end of the game, you're not watching major league baseball any more.

Delmon Young followed with a strikeout on a pitch out of the zone. He definitely needs to work on his plate discipline.

Duensing looked good in his first inning of work; after giving up a leadoff bunt single (on which he was knocked down in a collision with the runner), he got a fly out to Gomez (or Pridie, the commentators are confused about who's playing right now) and then proceeded to blow away Drew with a high fastball and get Casey to ground out to first.

His second inning wasn't nearly as good. He gave up a single, then a walk, then a hard ground ball that hit him. He left the bases loaded with one out. He'll have to make some adjustments after that inning; he completely lost his command, throwing 5 straight balls at one point. He left with an injury ... hopefully it's not too bad. I'm not getting any information about where the ball hit him.

Cali replaced him and promptly walked the first two batters he faced, forcing in a pair of runs. I haven't been impressed by anything I've seen of this guy. Fortunately, he managed to stem the damage and prevent any further runs from scoring.

Mulvey replaced Cali and got through a quick 7th inning before giving up a leadoff home run in the 8th to tie the game at 6. It was a line drive homer to a backup catcher who's never shown much power in the minors. He struggled mightily in that second inning of work, unable to get outs. It wasn't all his fault; an error aided the enemy's cause. But good pitchers can get around that. By the time the inning ended, we were losing 7-6.

Deolis Guerra came in to pitch the 9th. He gave up a couple of hits, but got out of the inning unscathed, including a strikeout. The worst thing to say about it is that the two hits were solid, but that's getting nitpicky.

Despite the final outcome, and the increasing sloppiness as it progressed, this was actually a promising game. While the starters were in, the offense looked effective. The Mauer-Young-Morneau part of the lineup proved to be dangerous (although Morneau didn't actually hold up his end of the bargain), and the hitters showed a lot of patience and drew plenty of walks. Blackburn, Rincon, and Guerra all pitched well. Adding Kubel and Cuddyer to the lineup and keeping the entire offense in there for the whole game will obviously make a big difference. Delmon got to show off his arm, and Gomez gave us a taste of what his speed can do when he gets on base.

The team actually did something today, which is definitely a step in the right direction. However, tomorrow's game takes on increased significance; if we lose, the Red Sox will have already clinched the Mayor's Cup, and it's only the first weekend of Spring Training. The way I see it, we simply cannot allow that to happen. I'll be hoping for the best lineup we can put on the field ... although it's probably not likely given that we're facing Tim Wakefield.

That's it for my post today ... it grew pretty long! I'll see if I can change my update pattern next time, to post only the most salient bits of information. I think the play-by-play stuff will get much less important once the games are actually televised, so I'll probably try to nix that. And I expect that insights will be easier to glean from the game when I don't have to listen to it on the radio.

Another Bad Day in Florida; 8-3 Loss to the Red Sox

2008-02-29T00:00:00-08:00

Well, the Twins have played a couple of Spring Training games. And the offense has looked pretty impotent in both. Game 1, against the Reds, we only scored one run (on an error), while being unable to take advantage of a three-error inning by the Reds. In Game 2, against the Red Sox, the bats again failed to show up.

Through the first eight innings, the only run the Twins scored came on a Brian Buscher solo home run. (At least he continues to swing a good bat.) We finally broke through in the ninth, with a two out rally courtesy of Ruiz, Knott, and Christy. At best, that shows that the team has managed to build at least some kind of depth in the system, because these guys are most certainly not going to make the roster this season.

And for anyone interested in Gomez's run at the starting CF job ... he's now 0-4 in the first two games, and has looked pretty overmatched while doing it. Pridie also went hitless, making Denard Span the only CF candidate who's managed to come up with a hit thus far.

Perhaps most ominous was the fact that for the second game in a row, one of our top young pitchers got touched up, hard. This time around, it was Slowey who gave up a couple of home runs in the 4th inning, and was unable to finish two innings of work. The reports had said he was throwing harder and better than ever, and that the Twins' hitters couldn't touch his stuff; if we can't hit a guy who gets destroyed by a real offense, we'll be in trouble.

The bright side of this game? Boof finished 2 scoreless innings, while Humber rebounded from his rough outing against Concordia with a scoreless inning. The Twins combined for 10 strike outs in the game. Position-player-wise, the only bright spot was Buscher. However, the odds continue to be against him winning the 3B spot over Lamb. Typical.

The other bright side is that MLB.TV works on Linux now. So I don't have to mess around with my old and underpowered Macs and Windows machines, and get to watch the games on the good computer. The season is looking good in that respect.

We play the Red Sox again, Saturday at noon. I could hope for a good birthday present (in the form of a victory), but I fear the odds are heavily stacked against it. The Twins are not ready to play baseball yet, and it shows. They'd better start swinging bats and getting people out (outscored 14-4 in the two games thus far), or else the bright hopes of spring will dry up a little faster than expected.

Go Twins. Tomorrow's a new day.

Infield Logjam

2008-02-28T00:00:00-08:00

As many of you may know, we have lots of infielders in camp, none of whom (aside from Morneau) really stand out. They way I see our starting infield should be as follows: 1B Morneau, 2B Harris, 3B Lamb, SS Everett. We should keep Punto on the bench and depending on how they perform in the spring one of Buscher or Watkins. I think Casilla should move to his natural position of SS and play everyday there in AAA. He is clearly very raw and would not benefit at all from riding the bench and getting ragged on by Gardy. So assuming we carry 12 pitchers, which we usually do, our roster looks like this: C: Mauer, Redmond; 1B: Morneau, 2b: Harris, Punto; 3B: Lamb, Buscher/Watkins; SS; Everett; OF:Kubel, Young, Cuddyer, Monroe, Pridie (or one of the other guys, too close to call). Obviously we can see Punto's value since he can play 3 positions. Whereas Buscher can backup 3B or 1B. Watkins can back up third, is trying to be emergency catcher which immensely adds to his value, and I'm sure in a pinch he can play some second. For a guy who has been in the minors for a decade, I'm sure he won't let a little position unfamiliarity stop him from playing in the majors.

Souhan on Punto

2008-02-27T00:00:00-08:00

Jim Souhan wrote an article about Nick Punto in today's star tribune. Can you really call it a slump if it lasts an entire year? I say no. Also, Punto thinks he can be our leadoff hitter in April, well season starts in March buddy. I know its good to have a versatile player like Punto on the team. We used to have Denny Hocking, now we have Punto. Hocking couldn't hit his way out of a paper bag, neither can Punto. He wouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentence as the starters if it weren't for Gardy's love of "scrappiness". I have nothing against Punto personally, I'm sure he is a nice guy, and from what I read he is great in the clubhouse. However, in baseball, and in life, you have to know your role. His is "utility infielder". There are worse things you could be than pretty much the first guy off the bench for one of the most respected organizations in the majors.

I also don't like how he mentioned he wasn't going to change his swing. Guy comes off a year where he was lucky to hit .210 and he is going to change....nothing? really? At least tell me you are going to try to change something. I understand defense is very important, especially with a young pitching staff. But how can Punto even be considered over Brendan Harris. Harris played out of position all last year, so he will be much better at second than he was at short. Also, he is leaps and bounds a better hitter than Punto. So having above average (albeit overrated) defense and the worst bat of all time, against an average glove and an above average bat is a competition? Come on.

Cuddyer on Delmon

2008-02-26T00:00:00-08:00

Buster Olney talked to Michael Cuddyer, and got this out of him via email:

E-mailed the Twins' Michael Cuddyer and asked him about his first impressions of Delmon Young, and about landing his own long-term extension. Young, Cuddyer wrote in response, "has impressed. We all know how much talent he has and how good he is going to be, but what has impressed me the most is the way he has been carrying himself. He is really excited to be here, excited to learn, excited to be a part of our organization and a part of the way we do things. He has been nothing but eager to soak up the knowledge of Rod Carew, Tony Oliva, and I am sure Harmon Killebrew once he arrives. So in response to what has jumped out at me is not what has transpired on the field but what he has brought with him off the field. I think the middle of our lineup could, and entire lineup in fact, could really surprise a lot of people. For some reason a lot of people have forgotten about the accolades this team won two years ago and two of those three, obviously excluding the Cy Young, are still here. Add Delmon in there, Brendan Harris as well and we can potentially be pretty impressive. All of course on paper!"

Obviously we've been high on Delmon the whole time he's been a Twin, and none of this is especially new, given the reports that have been coming out of the organization.

But it's promising to hear that Cuddyer agrees, and is just as excited about Delmon as we are. Additionally, he seems to be jumping on my "Twins offense will be the surprise of the year" bandwagon. (There's still plenty of room, by the way.) I like it, Mike. Keep up the good work. Of course, he's missing the biggest key to the successful offense: the emergence of Kubel.

More Spring Training Notes

2008-02-25T00:00:00-08:00

Apparently Jesse Crain threw to real hitters for the first time since May. I don't think it should count since those "hitters" were Nick Punto and Adam Everett. Although kudos to the coaching staff for giving Crain a nice confidence boost.
Kevin Slowey looked good in his first pitching session. Word is he was throwing really hard. Harder than anyone has seen him throw before. However, since the Twins don't use radar guns in camp nobody really knows how hard he was actuall throwing.
Gardy officially made the call for Delmon Young to start in left, keeping Cuddyer in right. This is a smart move. Make a note, because you can count on one hand how many times I will say Gardy made a smart move.
The lineup for tuesdays first spring game is as follows:

Denard Span- CF, Matt Tolbert- 2b, Brian Buscher-1b, Garrett Jones- RF, Tommy Watkins-3b, John Knott-LF, Randy Ruiz-DH, Felix Molina-SS, Drew Butera-C. Wow. Who in the world is John Knott?

Tyner Signs with Indians; Gardy Attempts Humor

2008-02-23T00:00:00-08:00

Apparently, the Indians have gone ahead and signed Tyner. Gardy had an interesting reaction.

"They must've been one home run shy of their quota." -- Gardenhire, when asked about former Twin Jason Tyner signing with the Indians

This is the sound of me falling off my chair, laughing. It seems to me that teams usually like to get players from a division rival in order to glean information about the team that isn't necessarily apparent from watching film.

The White Sox immediately got better at competing with the Twins when they got their grubby mitts on AJ. Maybe he made a bigger difference because 1) he was good, and 2) he was a catcher. But Tyner was one of Gardenhire's boyfriends, and spent plenty of time on the bench with Gardy, presumably learning all the secrets with the ultimate plan of selling them on the AL Central black market. He surely knew it was his only chance to score another contract.

My only hope is that Gardy knows so little about what he's doing that Tyner's nefarious knowledge won't help our rivals. It's a good thing he's so blase about the possibility though.

And no, I don't think I'm overreacting. Thanks for asking.

Delmon Young

2008-02-22T00:00:00-08:00

There was another article in one of the twin cities papers today about Delmon Young's "Checkered past". Can anyone provide insight into what this consists of, besides the bat throwing incident? I am convinced that he is just being lumped in with Dukes, and journalists aren't willing to do the leg work to figure this out. But thats just me.

Span the favorite?

2008-02-21T00:00:00-08:00

Denard Span, the former first round draft pick and heir apparent to Torii, claims he has what it takes to be the starting center fielder. He doesn't. Of the three candidates competing, Gomez, Pridie, and Span, Span is by far the worst. None of the three are major league ready in my opinion. So when you are significantly worse than your below average competition, you should just shut up. I appreciate that he is going to give 110% and all the jazz, but was he not trying to make the big club in years past? Could he not beat out Lew Ford and Jason Tyner for the 4th outfielder spot the past few year? Did the likes of Darnell McDonald and Garrett Jones deserve late season call-ups more than Span? Yes they did. Span has not once played at the Major League level. The twins have recently had a severe lack of position player depth in the minors and Span couldn't even compete with these scrubs for a late season roster spot. When Hunter got hurt in 2005 and missed most of the second half, Span's name wasn't even whispered to be called up for a look. I just don't think he has what it takes, and he needs to be written off as a bust.

Crawford Slams Young

2008-02-20T00:00:00-08:00

Joe C's got a post today about Carl Crawford complaining about Delmon Young's maturity level, lumping him in with Elijah Dukes. He was really harsh about it, but I don't think he realized exactly what he was saying.

“They could do whatever they wanted to do and they did whatever they wanted to do. Being loud, talking too much, saying whatever they wanted to whoever they wanted to say it to. There weren’t no rules for those guys. Now they’re going to somewhere where they have rules, so I don’t know what’s going to happen then.”

No rules for two talented young players who clearly need guidance, in the game and in their lives? Now, it's possible that I just like Delmon Young because he's the newest (good) Twin, and I want him to succeed and become a big star who outshines Garza and Bartlett. But maybe there's a reason Tampa Bay has never won 70 games.

A team needs rules. Some rules are stupid (no "bling bling" or windbreakers, despite the fact that the team distributes windbreakers and the goal of every season is to acquire some bling at the end), but having them helps to keep people in line. If Tampa Bay had no rules, then it's no wonder the franchise has been in disarray throughout its history. And I don't want to think about the implication of taking Crawford literally when he says "There weren’t no rules for those guys." Is it possible that these two were the exception to the team rules? Because if that's the case, it's even worse than not having any rules at all.

The Twins are a better run organization than the (Devil) Rays. The sky is blue.

Delmon Young is probably going to clean up his act, and make Crawford look like an idiot.

Spring Training Notes

2008-02-19T00:00:00-08:00

A few thoughts on things I've read now that camp has opened.

Livan Hernandez was told not to wear "bling-blings" in the words of Gardy. I did not know this but team rules state no excessive jewelry can be worn by players. I have no problem with this, but it might also explain why we have lots of dorky white guys on the team. Livan was also told he could not wear a windbreaker during practice. I thought this was strange. At least he isn't like Wild Thing Rick Vaugh and not wearing a cap or sleeves.
The team seems to be plagued by visa problems. First Liriano and his DUI related issue. Now we have Reyes who just plain forgot to renew his passport, so he is stuck in Mexico until later this week. Casilla also missed his visa renewal appointment due to a family emergency. I guess that is ok, but he is one guy who really can't afford to miss workouts.
Carlos Gomez appears to be "head and shoulders" above the competition for the starting CF job. This does not surprise me, as Span is just plain bad and should not be considered, but I think Pridie should be given a fair shake. Either way it should be fun to watch, or read about.
Back to Livan, apparently he had some trouble keeping up with the other pitchers during wind sprints yesterday. Granted it is the first day, he is fat, and Reyes wasn't there to make him look good, but for a guy who was desperate to get a job he should have showed up to camp in a little better shape. Maybe his presence is why people think Boof looks so slim.

FoxSports.com Power Rankings

2008-02-15T00:00:00-08:00

Fox sports released their power rankings for the 2008 MLB season. The Twins are ranked 20th with the following blurb

You don’t lose stars like Johan Santana and center fielder Torii Hunter and get better. But the Twins didn’t exactly come away empty this spring. Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez will be solid, possibly great, performers for years to come. The pitching could be competitive if Francisco Liriano comes all the way back and Boof Bonser takes a step forward.

I think this is a decent preseason ranking, after losing two all-stars its hard to rank us very high. That being said, I think we are better than the white sox, who are ranked 17th. 3 spots in a preseason ranking really doesn't mean much.

The top three of the Tigers, Indians, and Red Sox is a pretty safe bet. I think having the D-Backs at 4 is a little nuts. In my opinion no NL team cracks the top 5. After the Red Sox, I see LAA and the Yankees. Maybe I would drop the Yankees below the D-backs because they have three young starters they are relying a lot on. I disagree with the Royals being dead last. They are slightly better than that. The Pirates, in my opinion, are the least talented organization from top to bottom in the majors. The Royals probably come in third to last ahead of the Marlins and the Pirates.

It is difficult to rank AL teams against NL teams. They really should do two seperate lists. There were non-playoff AL teams that were better than playoff NL playoff teams. The Cubs come to mind, mainly because I don't like them, but also they were not very good last year. Them winning the NL central was like when the Twins won the AL central when it was the worst division in the history of sports.

Note: Liriano will be late for camp due to visa problems stemming from his 2006 DUI. They are saying a week at most. He has to go to a alcohol management class or something in order to get his work visa. Doesn't seem like it will be a big problem.

Catch-All

2008-02-14T00:00:00-08:00

After yesterday's discussion, it really sounds like there is no clear-cut best choice for CF. Every option has almost equal weighted pros and cons. This is unfortunate because Gardy can't be trusted with difficult, season altering decisions. He is also prone to changing his mind too quickly. If he decides to put Pridie in CF, and could yank him after a few bad ABs and plug Monroe in there, even if Monroe took zero reps in CF during Spring Training. He tries to cover up a bad decision with another bad decision, and it ends up spiraling out of control.

Note: There will be no Roger Clemens/Steroids discussions in this space. Ever.

Center Field Options

2008-02-13T00:00:00-08:00

The next important task for the Twins is figuring out who will play CF. As of now it looks like Pridie/Gomez/Span will compete for the job. Another thought would be to play Monroe there for at least half of of the season so Gomez or Pridie can adjust. Neither situation is ideal, but the latter could be nice because it would keep Monroe in the lineup. If he is sitting on the bench he will be burning a hole in Gardy's pocket and I am afraid he would steal ABs from Kubel. I know he isn't great in CF, but he will be serviceable.

A third option would be to sign Kenny Lofton or Corey Patterson. My problem with Patterson is he would be almost no different than playing Gomez right now. Lofton is too old to play center at the level he used to, but still wouldn't be worse than Monroe. There really isn't a clear cut good choice, the Twins just need to make one and stick with it. They shouldn't allow Gomez and Pridie platoon at the major league level (or any level for that matter). Make a choice and stick with it. Whether its Monroe, one of the young guys, or a 1 year free agent stop gap.

Considering the equipment truck is on its way to FL, signing a free agent would have to happen soon. I know Delmon Young has played a game or two in center and he is a freak athlete so he might be worth a look, but I would prefer we just stick him in left and let him mash the ball.

Livan

2008-02-12T00:00:00-08:00

Looks like the Twins picked up livan hernandez. He can earn close to 7 million with incentives. Not sure how I feel about this move. Sure, he can eat innings, and he isn't that old. However, he has a ton of miles on him so who knows. This could be another Ponson move, but I think everyone can agree the Livan is much better than Ponson or Ortiz, Ramon. Although he has never pitched in the AL, this move is basically like having Silva for less money. He give up more homers than Silva, but he provides some stability to the young rotation.

Manny Being ... Punto?

2008-02-11T00:00:00-08:00

I just wanted to share this with you guys:

"Manny being Manny--I know what that means now. He's an intense workout partner. I think people perceive him the wrong way sometimes, because this guy really loves the game. He loves everything that goes along with it. He's working out hard and he's going to be ready to play this season, for sure." --Twins infielder Nick Punto, on working out with Red Sox outfielder Manny Ramirez this offseason.

That's right. Punto worked out with Manny this offseason. He describes Manny as his "workout partner." So what can we take from this? That Punto has learned to start raising his hands victoriously after smashing a lazy fly ball to left field? Or that he's learned how to make sure his helmet falls off when he runs?

And ... why did Manny Ramirez work out with Nick Punto? I think that is the best example ever of "Manny being Manny." He's just a bit of a weird guy.

Catching Conundrum

2008-02-11T00:00:00-08:00

Gleeman touched on this topic today, but I would like to discuss it further. Why is Gardy so afraid of using both Redmond and Mauer in the lineup at the same time? Why is he so scared of losing his DH? Is having a pitcher hit that much worse than using Tyner or Rondell White? I think it is safe to say that our best bat off the bench was Mike Redmond, so isn't having him sit on the bench instead of used as the DH a waste and detrimental to the team? His doomsday scenario only played out once last year. In the second game of that double header against the white sox in July. We won. In that game Redmond got hurt in the first inning, so Gardy had to play by NL rules all game. If memory serves we scored about 12 runs that game (after putting up over 20 in the first game), and how many times did we score in double digits all year? Not many. So it seems like we play better when using NL rules because nobody expects the pitcher to produce. He usually stirkes out or can lay down a nice bunt. Where as the White/Tyner types hit into a double play or some other very unproductive out. I think Gardy should face his fear and just put the best lineup he can on the field without worrying about losing his DH for a few innings. It's a long season, so maybe having to actively manage NL style every once in a while will keep him sharp. I just hate to see the twins lose games because of Gardy's irrational fear of losing his DH.

Spring Training Fever

2008-02-08T00:00:00-08:00

As we near the reporting of pitchers and catchers to spring training, I start to get very excited about my near annual hajj to Ft. Myers. For those Twins fans (or baseball fans in general) who have not been to Ft. Myers, you are missing out on a trip of a lifetime. Whether you are taking a family trip, or going with your drunken, idiot friends (like me) there is something in store for all. The Lee County Sports Complex is widely regarded as the best Spring Training facility in Major League Baseball. I do not know if it is the best or not, but I can tell you first hand that it is leaps and bounds better than the Red Sox training facility, also located in Ft. Myers. The Twins facility offers up close views of players taking infield, hitting in the batting cages, and pitching in the batting cages, all without purchasing a ticket. Also, on off days, you can get a free look at an intrasquad scrimmage or practice. If you are an autograph seeker, there are many easy opportunities to get signatures. At the Red Sox facility, all you can do without a ticket is park far away, and buy overpriced Red Sox merchandise.

There are also plenty of great beaches and restaurants in the area, including great seafood. Ft. Myers Beach provides many miles of white sandy beaches, complete with areas for young people to party (lots of bars), as well as areas for adults and families to relax and play. Sanibel Island is also is a great place to visit, and also contains one of my favorite restaurants of all time, The Timbers Restaurant. I suggest the cruchy grouper. (Just to keep in mind, I love good food at a cheap price and cold beer) All in all, every Twins fan needs to make this trip at least once. Even if the game you see has a starting third baseman whose number is 92, he is not listed in the program, and he is still better than Punto; it is great to sit in the warm sun and watch outdoor baseball during February or March. You will find many great Minnesotans down there, and they are very easy to spot due to their extreme paleness. Plan this trip and you will definitely go back.

Joe Blanton

2008-02-08T00:00:00-08:00

It looks like the A's are looking to move Joe Blanton. According to mlbtraderumors.com the Reds have inquired and the price is high. They say either Homer Bailey, widely considered one of the top pitching prospects in the NL. Or Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, and a third player. From 2005-2007 Votto went from high A to AAA, spending one season at each level. In 2007 at AAA he hit 294/381/478 with 22 homers. His k's were high, but he is still an top hitting prospect. If memory serves he has a leg up for a starting job in the Reds outfield for 2008. That is insane. Bailey is projected to be a contributor in the Reds rotation. So either package demanded by Beane would include a projected ML starter. Joe Blanton is a middle of the rotation starter, solid but not spectatular. Would you give up top young talent for a young version of Kenny Rogers or Jimmy Key or Brad Radke? Seems like the Reds would be dumb to make either of those deals. Bill Beane is like that kid in your fantasy baseball league who proposes really dumb, one sided, trades and tries to convince you its a good deal. "Joe Blanton is set to have a dominant, breakout year, I swear! Give me Reyes and Cabrera for him. It will give you pitching depth." Shutup Billy Beane.

Update: Joe C notes that the twins are not in conversation with the A's about Blanton. Good.

Johan thoughts

2008-02-07T00:00:00-08:00

Jim caple wrote an article about Minnesota sports teams losing their best players. He has a pretty good point. However, I really don't thinking losing Johan was so much a money thing as it was a number of years thing. Word on the street is we offered him 5/100MM, but were unwilling to give him the 6 year extension he wanted. It also seems the Yankees backed out too because they were gunshy about a lenghty contract for a pitcher. I think it makes perfect sense. For the most part pitchers have the biggest risk of injury of anyone on the field. I know Johan is a special player, but I just don't think 7 years is a wise investment. Its one thing to give Morneau an 80MM contract, he plays on average 150 games a year. But giving a player who plays once every five days a 7 year 150 million contract is pretty risky. It didn't work for Kevin Brown, Barry Zito, Mike Hampton, it worked well for Randy Johnson for a few years, but isn't that the point? Of all pitchers with around 100MM+ contracts how many were still worth 20+ million in the 6th and 7th years of their contract? The Mets may view it as a wise investment, to have a good pitcher at 20+MM a year for 5 years, and dead weight at 20+MM for 2 years. They view that extra 40MM as a sunk cost, or something. When I sign a player to a contract I would expect the player to be effective for all the years of the contract and would consider it a failure if he was totally useless for the last two years of it. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have Johan for 5 more years, but have more than 20% of our payroll in the last two years of his contract dedicated to him when he barely puts a jersey on in those two years? Dicey at best.

I blame Brian Sabean for this. What was he thinking when he gave Zito that much money. He was coming off a bad year, and he still couldn't cut it in the NL. I feel a little bad for the Indians because CC should be able to get about the same contract as Johan, he is about a year younger, and just as durable. His weight could become a problem. The difference is, the Indians have a good chance to win next year, it should be a battle to the wire with the Tigers.

Sunday Lineups

2008-02-05T00:00:00-08:00

One trend that I would love to see Gardy stop doing is by using Sundays as a rest day for the majority of the starters. It seems like the general lineup the Twins throw out there on Sundays makes it damn near impossible to win. It bugged me even more when he would do this with Santana pitching. I understand that players need rest, (except for Bronko Nagurski, he never got off days or bye weeks) and it is difficult to play a day game after a night game, but I would rather see players off days be spread out a little more, rather than put an entire roster full of Puntos and Tyners on to the field.

Joe Nathan and Promising Omens

2008-02-05T00:00:00-08:00

Joe Nathan has made it clear he would like to sign in the neighborhood of a 5 year deal and "doesn't have to push his salary limits". Does that mean he will play for below market value? That is great, but do we need a high priced closer when we will be playing very meaningful games? I think Neshek, or to a lesser extent Crain and Rincon could be just as effective on a .500 team as Nathan. Depending on the deal, both its dollar value and length, I could be convinced to keep him. It does feel good to have Nathan warming up to pitch the ninth. I remember the days when we had LaTrine Hawkins and "Everyday except for weekends and major holidays" Eddie. That made for some long, nerve racking ninth innings. I don't want to go back to that.

On an unrelated note I read an interesting fact in the paper this morning. The Giants won the Super Bowl in both January of 1987 and January of 1991. The Twins won World Series titles in October of both of those years. And if I recall, in 1991 we were coming off a down year. I'm just sayin'.......

At least our players wives don't look like this

2008-02-05T00:00:00-08:00

Don Mattingly's ex-wife after her arrest for drunkenly showing up at his house.

Monday Musings

2008-02-04T00:00:00-08:00

Now that we enter the worst month in the wide world of sports, we really have to dig for things to discuss. Fortunately (or unfortunately) Gardy and Nick Punto supply us with enough fodder to last a lifetime.

One of the biggest questions going into the season is what crazy scheme will Gardy come up with in order to weasel Punto into the lineup on a regular basis. Here is how i see it, he will rotate him through 4 positions: second, third, short, and DH. Since Gardy has no idea what a DH is supposed to do, I will give him a hint. They hit. He no longer has jason tyner to use in the DH spot, so he sees Punto as his next best option. Kubel should get the bulk of the DH ABs, with Rondell White 2 backing him up. That is all.

The Demands on Hughes Just Went Way Up

2008-02-02T00:00:00-08:00

I don't know how much stock to put into this (scroll most of the way down), but I thought it was interesting:

One of the most uttered sentences in baseball lately, once it became clear the Yankees preferred keeping Phil Hughes to trading for Santana, was: "Phil Hughes had better be good." Yankees GM Brian Cashman has, essentially, staked his job and reputation on Hughes, since Principal Son Hank Steinbrenner obviously would have voted to deal for Santana. If the Yankees sputter and Hughes doesn't make an impact (at age 21, remember), don't expect Steinbrenner to show much patience -- with Hughes or his GM.

If Hughes has a down year this year, could it be possible that Hank will lose patience with him and potentially deal him next year for considerably less than Johan Santana?

I realize that it's just a little early to start talking about next year's Hot Stove, but I'd like to get this out in the open now. Because I've repeatedly been irked by the trend I've noticed lately regarding the way teams treat the Twins in trade negotiations. The Nationals said they wanted Garza+Baker+Slowey for Soriano. The Red Sox said they wanted Garza+Baker for Wily Mo Pena -- one week before trading him to the Nats for a PTBNL. The Rays wanted Garza+Bartlett for Delmon Young -- one week before trading the equally talented Elijah Dukes to the Nats for a PTBNL. The Mets thought Lastings Milledge was too valuable to give up for Johan Santana -- until they traded him to the Nats for scraps. The Yankees thought Hughes was too much to pay, the Red Sox thought Lester and Ellsbury were each too much to pay.

And now Jayson Stark is already fanning the flames under a possible dumping of Hughes, presumably to a team other than the Twins, and presumably for a player less talented than Johan Santana.

It can't be something lacking in the Twins' negotiating strategy that urges teams to demand so much -- they're demanding it and they walk away when we try to talk them down. It can't be that our farm system is so good that they think it'll be easy to pick from it -- we have only three prospects in the top 100, and two of them were just acquired in the Santana trade.

Is it possible that teams are just gunshy about dealing with the Twins because of the reputation for getting good deals? Will that reputation start to go away now that a new GM has taken over and has made two trades that were each criticized by the media and the fans? (Certainly one was criticized more than the other.)

I don't know. All I know is that when the Yankees trade Hughes for a fourth outfielder or something, I'm going to be really, really mad.

Reusse Doesn't Watch Baseball

2008-01-31T00:00:00-08:00

I usually try not to read Reusse, because he's such an idiot, but his latest article contains a wonderful nugget that's just too good to pass up:

The Yankees chose to hoard Hughes, a righthanded control pitcher who can throw hard enough to break a pane of glass, rather than put themselves back in position to overtake the Red Sox in the East Division and the American League.

Oh yes. That's how I'd choose to describe Hughes and his 95 MPH fastball. If Hughes can "break a pane of glass," what can Santana's fastball do? Rustle a leaf?

I understand that Reusse hates sports, especially when they occur in Minnesota, but he should at least watch. It takes about 10 seconds of watching Hughes pitch to realize that he's best described as a power pitcher, with a particularly overpowering fastball.

Reusse should just stop. This is too much.

Nathan Warms to the Twins

2008-01-31T00:00:00-08:00

After spending the last year criticizing the organization and seeming to want out, Joe Nathan appears to be changing his tune.

"I know what I said, and that's if the team is looking like it's moving in one direction and not the direction that I'm looking to go, then it would be a less interesting place to stay," Nathan said. "But even though we've lost a very key guy, I still feel like they've made some pretty good moves in this organization. "Showing they are willing to sign guys like Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau long term definitely helps. I still have a good feeling about this team."

He's getting older, and clearly wants to be a winner before he retires. But now that the other malcontents have been silenced -- by leaving through free agency, being traded, and signing a long term deal -- Nathan doesn't have the ammunition or player support to keep on complaining. All he wants now is a big contract. He claims to know what his market value is (after seeing other closers sign huge contracts this offseason), and wants to be paid like an elite closer. Fortunately, he is no longer sure that that can only happen if he leaves.

"I hope the two paths cross and we can come up with something that works for both of us," Nathan said. "I hope I can continue to play in the city that I always said is a great city to play in with great fans, a great organization, a great staff and the players have always been great."

I'd like to keep Nathan, obviously, because he anchors the bullpen and shortens the game. I'm a little bit concerned that he's not as dominant as he once was, after seeing him struggle for an extended period last season, and he's getting older. (He's now one of two players on the roster over 30.) At the same time, I don't see the Twins as being able to afford paying their closer $15M per season.

We'll see what happens, but I personally think it's unlikely that the Twins will trade Nathan this offseason. It's getting late, and I doubt they'll trade him during spring training.

Gardy Willing to Play the Youngsters

2008-01-31T00:00:00-08:00

Gardenhire has long disliked young players, preferring low quality veterans over promising youngsters. Is it possible that he's changing is mind as the team gets even younger than usual?

"There are some veterans out there coming off injuries and so forth that we could take a look at, but we've tried that route," Gardenhire said. "I would rather take my shot with some of these young guys than some of the guys coming off injuries. "We really haven't seen people out there that are better than our young guys. We've got a young lineup and some young pitchers and there is no sense that they can't go together. We have to give some of those young guys a chance, and they can help us."

Those sound like the words of someone who realizes we have a young team, and has learned from the mistakes of the recent past (namely, ROrtiz and Ponson). It certainly doesn't sound like Gardy. I still expect him to jerk the pitchers around, inexplicably skip starts, and completely mismanage the rotation, but it might be more difficult for him this year. He no longer has an ace, so he can't say "it all depends on what Johan wants," and he no longer has a pathetic veteran who loses all his confidence if any of his starts are skipped.

If Wild Bill doesn't sign any crappy veterans to waste space in the rotation, I'll be satisfied.

So Long Santana

2008-01-30T00:00:00-08:00

Well, it finally happened. Wild Bill pulled the trigger on Johan. I will say I'm slightly disappointed with this deal. However, there is some upside. We got 4 of the Mets top ten prospects. Carlos Gomez has great upside and should compete for the starting CF job with Pridie, Span, and probably Punto and Cuddyer. Phil Humber won't become any better than a back of the rotation starter, but those can be a valuable commodity in a pennant race, or as trade bait to another team in a pennant race. Desperate teams tend to overpay for stable pitching, even if it is just a 4th starter. This is especially true in late July. If you check out Gleeman'spost today you can see all the statistical analysis for each of the players we picked up. After reading about each of them it seems that most of them were rushed through the mets system. I think the Twins approach to minor leaguers, and their good coaching staffs at every level will help these players realize their full potential. That is why I think all of them should spend all of 2008, if not longer, at some minor league level. Some claim that Gomez is going to be in center on opening day 2008, I think he has shown he is over-matched right now in the majors. The Twins would be better off signing Corey Patterson or someone for one year. I don't think Span or Pridie are ready either.

Remember, when the team traded Knoblauch 10 years ago we got a handful of scrubs according to most people. We failed to get the Yankees top prospect at the time, Ricky Ledee. This made many fans angry, but it turned out ok. Guzman and Milton were all-stars, we turned Milton into Silva, who was a solid innings eater for a few years. I think this trade can't be properly judged for a few more years.

Looking forward to next season I think it will be difficult for the Twins to be worse than they were last year. Young can very easily replace what Hunter did last year. And a chimp could replace what Torii would have done this year, everyone knows he only plays well in contract years. If Liriano is 75% of what he was in 06, not a totally far fetched thought, he replaces Santana's production. With the emergence of Scott Baker as a legit major league starter, and if the rumors about Boof losing a ton of weight we should have at worst a major league average rotation. Even with Johan for 2008 I don't think we would have caught either the Tigers or the Indians in the central. Much like the Timberwolves and KG. If they kept him they would be a little better, but still nowhere near the playoffs. So as long as Punto stays on the bench for 2008 and Cuddyer doesn't play center, we have reason to be optimistic.

Update: I have read this morning that Johan told the twins to trade him by Tuesday (Jan 29) or he would invoke his no trade clause and he would walk after the season. Wild Bill asked the Yankees for Ian Kennedy, Melky, and another top low level prospect, and was denied. The Red Sox refused to move Ellsbury or Lester. So the package we took was the best we could get before Johan's deadline. Everyone has been saying we should have pulled the trigger a month ago, but had Smith done that everyone would have said "he should have waited a month for a better package". I like the gamble Smith took. It was not unreasonable to think the Yankees would do something crazy to get Johan, he gambled and lost. I respect that. I'm not sure what TR would have done but I wouldn't have respected that.

From the Mouth of Morneau

2008-01-30T00:00:00-08:00

While many of us have been assuming that Gomez will be competing for a CF spot in spring training, or that the Twins should sign Kenny Lofton for a year, Justin Morneau disagrees:

"We now have our center fielder and leadoff hitter that we needed, and added some good young arms at the same time," Justin Morneau wrote in an e-mail about the Santana trade.

He seems satisfied with the trade, and has a high opinion of the young Gomez. I think that's much more important than the accuracy of his scouting report (how much can Morneau really know about Gomez?). It wasn't too long ago that I was worried about Morneau's commitment to this team, and that he was just waiting to sign a big deal elsewhere. Clearly, that isn't the case any more. And his contract seems to have removed any semblance of a mercenary mentality.

We'll see how that translates on the field. We'll also see how the CF/lead-off race shakes out.

Tuesday

2008-01-29T00:00:00-08:00

One of the posters on LEN3's blog suggested that instead of trading Johan away we should trade for Eric Bedard. He claimed that since the going rate was only an Adam Jones (not Pacman) type player. Great. Where are we going to get one of those first off. And secondly, if we had any elite hitting prospects, why would we want to surrender them to get a pitcher we won't be able to afford in two years? Yes, we would have a fearsome rotation headed by Santana and Bedard, but it is a very, very shortsighted idea that would hurt the team for years to come. Some people are just plain dumb.

In other news it sounds like the twins have asked all parties involved in the Santana talks to make their final offer. These teams, of course, are the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets. There is a link on mlbtraderumors.com saying the Dodgers are creeping in. There isn't really a source, so I don't believe it.

Thesier Out-Brains Her Readership

2008-01-28T00:00:00-08:00

If you thought Kelly Thesier was bad, I have news for you. Her readers are worse. From today's mailbag:

With no center fielder ready, traded for or signed, why aren't the Twins talking about moving Nick Punto there? He seems to have the natural ability to catch the ball and he's got more experience in the big leagues than a guy like Denard Span or Jason Pridie. -- Andy S., Cincinnati, Ohio Punto has the ability to play the outfield, including center field, but the Twins have more experienced options to use there if necessary. Craig Monroe has played a total of 77 career games in center field, Delmon Young is an option and manager Ron Gardenhire has even mentioned Michael Cuddyer as a possibility for seeing time there. The team also is willing to give Span and Pridie a chance to earn the starting spot. Punto will spend the spring competing for the second base spot and if Brendan Harris earns the job, as expected, then Punto will be back to filling in the utility infield role.

Fortunately for all involved, Kelly's response warms the heart. I was worried there for a moment. A bigger question is: Who is Andy S, from Cincinnati? Why does he think Punto would be a good option in CF? Why does he want Punto to get his 600 ABs? And can we trade him to the Reds?

The disheartening part of the response is that none of the options are particularly good ones. Of the players with MLB experience, Monroe is probably the best option ... and he's not a good one. (Though he's been insisting that he'll be trying to win the starting spot in CF this spring.) Other than Monroe, we've got Pridie. Great. I don't expect big things out of him. However, he'll be a lot better than Punto.

None of this probably needed to be said ... but people like Andy S from Cincinnati keep doing things like this that might encourage Gardy's addiction.

Monday Musings

2008-01-28T00:00:00-08:00

We all know that Nick Punto is not a good player, and have really no idea why he is allowed to particpate in a major league baseball game. Gardy seems to be in love with him because "he can catch the ball". At most, that is 50% of the game. Punto is a terrible hitter, that includes bunting, getting on base, moving runners over, etc. Since he lacks the ability to get on base, he is not an effective baserunner. How many times have we had a runner (or runners) on base and Punto failed to not only get himself on base, but also failed to move any of the runners up a base? The answer seems to be a lot. He is basically a free out. I will concede that he probably isn't as bad as his nearly .200 batting average was last year, but he is closer to that than to the .290 he hit in 2006. I have yet to hear a reason, other than "he catches the ball pretty good", for playing Punto on a regular basis. On Gardy's appearance on KFAN the other day, one of the reasons he gave was that Punto was annoying on the bench, so gardy didn't want to have to deal with that. That is a terrible reason, and probably a joke. Although looking at Punto its pretty obvious that one would get very annoyed very fast after spending very little time with him. So if anyone has a legitimate reason for Nick Punto get regular ABs I would like to hear them. The following have already been covered and cannot be used again:

1) He "catches the ball pretty good". This is not a good enough reason because Punto is so bad at the plate that his above average defense does not make up for it. Some players prevent enough runs playing defense that if they are below average at hitting, its ok. Punto is not one of them.

2)I have heard no other real reasons for Punto getting ABs. When there is only one decent reason for a guy to get ABs you know you are in trouble. Unless its A-Rod and that one reason is "there are almost no flaws in his all around game"

Just Saying Stuff

2008-01-27T00:00:00-08:00

"I think Gardy may have just been saying stuff," Cuddyer said with a laugh during the press conference. "But I'm up for any challenge if that comes my way. I've never shied away from playing any position. If that does come about, I'll go out and play my best."

Gardy may have "just been saying stuff" when he brought up the possibility of Cuddyer in CF? How often does this happen? And if this is common, do the players listen to it? After all, Gardy's in charge. When he talks, the players are supposed to listen.

So when he's "just saying stuff" like "Let's play Punto every day, we don't need to score to win," it happens. Punto plays, we lose, and people laugh about Gardy's antics.

Frankly, his decisions and statements are laughable. And unforgivable. At least Cuddyer doesn't take him too seriously.

Gardy on KFAN (1/24/2007)

2008-01-25T00:00:00-08:00

Yesterday afternoon Gardy appeared on KFAN answering numerous twins related questions. Most of it was things we have discussed before, such as Gardy trying to find a place for Punto (because he "knows how to catch the ball"), and Cuddyer in center because "its easy to track down balls from center". He also said that Kubel's knees were fine. Gardy said he had "no problem putting an offensive lineup on the field". What does that mean, did he have a problem doing it last year? According to the results he did. Anytime you have Punto in the lineup it can't be considered an offensive lineup, well it can depending on your interpretation of offensive. An outfield of (L to R) Kubel, Cuddyer, and Young is not acceptable. Kubel needs to spend most of his time at the DH position because his knees are worse than Jake Taylor's in Major League, and Jason is only 25.

I'm also not sure how i feel about Gardy insisting he wanted to keep Santana. I understand that as a manager you would love to write Johan's name in ink at the top of the rotation, but should he really be breaking ranks on this issue. All top brass in the organization should keep with the same story. Everyone wants to keep Santana, but when the manager says something like "I really want to have Johan as my opening day starter" he could lead fans to believe that he is working to undermine management in their efforts to get the best possible package for the best pitcher in the game. Since I don't believe anything Ronnie says, I don't have a problem with it. However, this could confuse some people, and this situation is already confusing enough as it is.

Reasons for Gardy's ineptitude

2008-01-24T00:00:00-08:00

There has to be some reason, some event or series of events in Gardy's past, that he continues to play "scrappy" (read: all glove, negative bat) players instead of more qualified, well rounded players. Well, I think I have figured it out. In Gardy's brief stint with the Mets he was basically Nick Punto, except his manager was good and never let him play. He was always a defensive sub and emergency fill-in at several positions. This type of player is very important on a team when used correctly. I think deep down Gardy resents the fact that he wasn't good enough to be an everyday player, and despises the good players who started over him. He is now living vicariously through Punto and trying to recapture the ABs he never got as a player. Now promising young players like Casilla, and Brandon Harris will lose time at the middle infield positions because Punto will steal their ABs. This is like when you were in little league and you had to sit on the bench or play that crappy 4th outfield position because the coach wanted to let his son start at a key defensive position and bat high in the lineup even though he has no business being on the field.

I want to bring up an important point to the readers here at firegardy.com. Some people have been complaining about the signing of Adam Everett, stating that he is just like Nick Punto. The one thing that makes him an asset rather than the liability that Punto is, is his ability to make productive outs, such as bunting, moving runners over, etc. Punto brings a great glove that will help the team, and a bat that will help the opposing team. On the flipside, Everett brings the same, if not better, glove, and a bat that will help his team. Also, some of those plays that Punto makes are probably easier than they look. Just because he runs hard after a foul pop doesn't mean he is a great defender. A great defender makes hard plays look easy, he doesn't make easy plays look hard. That might be a sign of a bad defender.

The Call to Fire Gardy Begins

2008-01-23T00:00:00-08:00

Ron Gardenhire, the manager of the Twins, gets quite a bit of credit for being a good manager. Here at firegardy.com, we don't understand why.

He can't make a lineup.

He can't play anyone who isn't a middle infielder.

He doesn't understand the concept of the designated hitter.

And, worst of all, the most unforgivable thing in the world:

Nick Punto.

Here at firegardy.com, we'll be pointing out Gardy's repeated idiocy and explaining why he's wrong. Hopefully this will encourage people to stop calling him "a good manager," and encourage Wild Bill to replace him.

Cuddyer in CF

2008-01-23T00:00:00-08:00

Gardy has floated the idea of playing Cuddyer in center. This is bad for many reasons, I will highlight a few.

1) Cuddyer has spent two years learning how to play the wall in right, so why move him thus having a sub-par defender in center and right.

2) Cuddyer does not have the range or athleticism to cover center.

3) Moving Cuddyer to center and having Young and Kubel at the corners makes for a rough looking outfield.

I'm sure we will see Punto take a fair amount of reps in center during spring training. This will not be pretty. Gardy will take every chance he can get to give his boyfriend some ABs. This will not translate into wins.