Hitting the Foul Pole

I’ve noticed for a while that Gardy throws Valencia under the bus at every opportunity. In a game where Valencia hit a home run but also failed to advance the runner from second to third in a later at bat, Gardy will mention said failure in the postgame press conference. In a game in which the bullpen collapsed and threw away a big lead, Gardy will point out that Valencia didn’t bunt, or muffed a hard grounder down the line, or something.

This has seemed to me like another example of one of the main problems I have with Gardy’s managerial style — that he seems to be very highly critical of his talented (but not highly talented) young-ish players, in a way that he isn’t of players who are either old or bad or both.

But check out this quote, courtesy of Phil Mackey:

“I think he enjoys it, to tell you the truth,” Gardenhire said, regarding Valencia handling criticism. “I think it makes him feel like he’s a part of stuff when people are getting on him. Because he’s constantly saying, ‘How come these guys are getting on me about this, Gardy, and not getting on this guy about this?’ So I know he likes it. I really believe he likes that stuff.”

Evidently, Gardy is deliberately trying to find ways to criticize Valencia, because he thinks Valencia likes it.

Of course, when I hear that Valencia says “How come these cuys are getting on me about this, Gardy, and not getting on this guy about this?”, I don’t think that sounds like he likes it. It sounds like he thinks it’s bullshit.

And even if Gardy is right, that Valencia does like being criticized more than all the other players even when he’s not doing anything wrong, I imagine he doesn’t appreciate it when Gardy says he needs to start producing more or he’s going to be sent down to Rochester.

What do you think? Have I misread Valencia’s feelings? Is Gardy out of touch? Or is this much ado about nothing?

The Twins have finally won consecutive games — and all it took was removing Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau from the lineup. Obviously this is a coincidence, and shouldn’t be taken to mean that the Twins are a better team without their two best players. But let’s consider, shall we?

This is a graph of the 10-day moving average of the wOBA of a bunch of players:

You can see in that graph that the Twins’ offense has been meek this year — nearly the entire team was sitting below .300 wOBA for the whole year. Mauer, on the handful of days he played, was below a .300 wOBA.

But another thing you can see is that as soon as Mauer left the lineup, something happened. Delmon and Cuddyer and Valencia started swinging the bat — you can see a strong upswing in all their lines as soon as Mauer’s cuts off. And when Morneau left,* they continued to rise; except for Cuddyer, whose trajectory increased violently to match Kubel’s. (Kubel, by the way, has been hitting very well lately. A .450 wOBA is excellent.)

Now, if I’m being honest, I’d assume that the timing of this is just a coincidence.* These guys are better hitters than their .200 wOBA was showing, and it was only a matter of time until they started making better contact. But let’s just say the coincidence is striking.

* Except for Thome’s precipitous drop coinciding with Morneau’s absence from the lineup. He’s played a lot of consecutive games now, and for the second year in a row that’s not what he signed up for.

But still, I wonder if there’s something to this. Gardy’s teams have always performed better than their talent should have allowed — until the team had talented players. Maybe there’s something about Gardy’s style of coaching that simply works better when there’s less talent to work with, when there are no stars in the lineup. I doubt it can be quantified, but it seems believable that a manager could be more inspiring when the players know they can’t rely on great players to win the game for them. I also think it’s believable that, without lineup mainstays like Mauer and Morneau, Gardy has more freedom to tinker, to mix and match players, and to make moves.

That move-making doesn’t always work, but it’s worked the last two days. And Gardy’s “let’s stick together in the face of hardship”* act appears to have lit the fire that was necessary to get some of the Twins’ essential bats to start clicking.

* Assuming, of course, that he’s done anything. I hope it’s fair to assume that.

The Twins were a very fun team to watch this decade when they were plucky underdogs — and without Mauer and Morneau, that’s what they can be again. Of course, it’d be best if Kubel and Young and Cuddyer and Valencia continued to hit well as Morneau and Mauer return, allowing the Twins to perform as the expensive machine they’re supposed to be now that their payroll has rocketed past $100M.

What do you think? Coincidence? Gardy doing a good job? The players banding together without the protection of the stars? What are you talking about, it’s only two games?

If you blinked, you may have missed the Twins’ annual postseason beatdown at the hands of the Yankees. It sure happened in a hurry.

What might be the problem? According to this totally unscientific and probably biased poll, people think the two biggest factors are that they can’t beat the Yankees, or that Gardy is the problem. It seems to me that if one of those is a problem, then they both are — the only common threads between the Twins/Yankees at the beginning of the current streak of dominance and the Twins/Yankees today are the cities where the teams play (but not the stadiums), Gardy, and perhaps the amused attitude the media takes to the lovable small market peons that have the gall to even show up to the postseason.

If Gardy is the problem, then it’s going to be a tough one to fix. Overall, Gardy is a good manager; probably one of the best in the game right now, especially over the course of the full season. He seems to understand the ebbs and flows of the season, and that today isn’t necessarily as important as all the tomorrows — for example, he pulled Kevin Slowey after seven no-hit innings, because the chance at a no-hitter on that day wasn’t as important as Slowey’s health for the rest of the season and for the rest of Slowey’s career. This is the sort of attitude and behavior that will keep the clubhouse loose even when things are going badly, and will engender a feeling of trust among the players. That may well be the secret to Gardy’s success as a manager.

However, he leaves a lot to be desired from an in-game, tactical perspective. Part of that is certainly that he’s willing to sacrifice today to protect tomorrow. He won’t bring in the closer for a 5-out save, because he wants the closer available tomorrow. He won’t push back a struggling starter’s spot in the rotation because he doesn’t want to hurt his confidence. He’ll leave a slumping hitter at the plate despite the platoon disadvantage. Over the course of the season, you’d think these tactical “mistakes” would add up; but it seems to me that Gardy’s record suggests that either they don’t add up to all that much, that it all pretty much evens out, or that the benefits of his approach outweigh the negatives.

Unfortunately, that approach doesn’t apply nearly as well in the postseason. Once the playoffs start, tomorrow matters a whole lot less than today — for one thing, there are fewer tomorrows; and perhaps more importantly, without today, there may not be any tomorrows at all. Each moment in the playoffs is magnified — this is what the TBS and Fox announcers have repeated from their script hundreds of times so far in these playoffs. So the postseason minimizes Gardy’s positive contributions, and maximizes the effects of his weaknesses. It’s no wonder, then, that Gardy’s teams have repeatedly struggled in the playoffs.

Now, I don’t believe this explains why the Twins have lost 12 consecutive playoff games, or 9 straight to the Yankees. I do, however, see how it would explain why the Twins would lose each of these playoff series (especially combined with the fact that they were the lesser team in each case); it’s not a far step from there, for small sample size flukes to turn four straight playoff series losses into four straight playoff series sweeps. It sucks, and it hurts every time — each year, I’ve managed to convince myself that this time, somehow, it’ll be different — but what can you do about it?

Is firing Gardenhire an option? The Twins don’t consider it to be one — Bill Smith said extending Gardy’s contract was “a no brainer” after the season ended — and I tend to agree. Would the Twins have dominated the AL Central this decade with a different manager at the helm? Maybe, and maybe not. Would they have fared better in the playoffs, when or if they made it? Maybe, and maybe not. It’s not really a fair question, nor is it even possible to answer.

Posnanski has talked in the past about following a team whose philosophy about the game differs from your own. The example he typically gives is that a statistically-minded fan, who believes that there’s more to understanding the game than was etched in stone by the cigar-chomping fathers of baseball, can struggle to deal with rooting for a team that openly and proudly rejects progress; that when you as a fan believe that OBP is an important offensive statistic and the team you follow proudly runs out a lineup of sub-.300 OBP “hitters,” it gets frustrating. It’s a rough feeling.

I’ve had that feeling about the Twins, at times. They value a certain sort of player, a slap-hitting middle infielder with more hustle than talent, a guy who hits .300/.300/.300 (bats .300 but draws no walks and hits nothing but singles); meanwhile, I value a different sort of player, who may not have a .300 batting average but who will draw walks and take multiple bases when he gets a hit. They value a certain sort of pitcher, a strike-throwing machine who can hit his spots and minimize walks; I value a different sort of pitcher, who has movement on his pitches or who throws harder, and can generate strikeouts. The Twins and I have disagreed as to the source of their success: they have always believed it was due to those strike-throwers having a solid defense behind them, and I’ve always pointed out that when the team had an ERA among the league leaders, the pitching staff was also among the league leaders in strikeouts, and strikeout-to-walk ratio.

In this case, though, we’re not talking about whether you agree with the team’s philosophy on what makes a good baseball player, or even what wins games. This is a larger question, one that even more certainly has no “true,” or “correct” answer. That question is: What do you value in a baseball season?

Seems simple, right? But I think you’ll find that the answer is a bit more difficult to put your finger on than you might think. Do you value championships, above all else? Many fans would like to think that they do, but if that were true, they’d either be Yankee fans or perpetually unhappy — there just aren’t that many championships. Do you value postseason success; not necessarily winning championships, but competing strongly for them and getting close? That gives a little more leeway, but still, you’re only enjoying baseball when your team is among the best in the league. Perhaps you enjoy the business side of baseball, wondering what you’d do differently if you were the GM — what moves would you do differently, what sort of team would you build from this foundation? Or the tactical aspect of individual games — if you were the manager, would you bring in that reliever now, or see if the starter can get a couple more guys? Like I said, there’s no right answer, and I would think that most fans would answer in the affirmative to multiple of these examples.

Maybe, though, you value something else about a baseball season. Maybe you value the daily grind, getting to the ballpark or to your favored chair in front of the television, at the same time every day, to watch the games unfold in front of you. Maybe you enjoy watching the young players move up through the system, until they finally join the big club and you can see how they fit in and wonder what it’s like in the clubhouse. Maybe you like the ups and downs of a long season — the downs can feel so bad, and so dark, and you can wonder how this team could ever win a game … but that only makes the ups seem so much brighter, that your team is on top of the world and cannot be stopped, that the summer is flying by in a blur of bats cracking, balls flying, brilliant moments, sunsets, and cheers. That is, maybe you value the season as a whole, moreso than any individual game, than any particular move, than how big is the trophy that the team gets at the end of it.

And by sticking with Gardy, I think that’s what the Twins are saying that they value. It’s not how you feel after the last game of the season; rather, it’s how you felt through all the games.

Maybe mastering the long season prevents Gardy from performing in a short series where individual games mean everything. Maybe he just needs to learn a different way to manage, a different way to inspire the players, a different perspective that only comes into focus in the heat of the postseason. Maybe the playoffs are a complete crapshoot, and all this talk that Gardy “can’t win” in the playoffs will dissolve like so much smoke in the wind once the Twins finally stop drawing the short straw once they get there.

Who knows? Myself, I value the 162 games that come first, considerably more than the 3 games that came last. And for once, the Twins seem to agree. It’s a strange feeling, to agree philosophically with your team. A good feeling.

What do you value in a baseball season?

Late Monday afternoon, a tweet came fluttering to my attention, borne by the whispering aether that is the internet. It was brilliant in its simplicity, yet invited so much thought, I couldn’t let it pass by un-considered.

What would a batting order of Twins blogs look like? @TwinkieTown

Now, perhaps it wasn’t supposed to be some soft of profound question, cutting straight to the heart of the blogosphere. Perhaps its author was merely bored, waiting for the Twins game to start. Perhaps it doesn’t matter one way or the other, as it happens, because once inspiration strikes the damage is done. It’s much like lightning in that way.

Now, I personally didn’t agree with the idea of a batting order. The idea of fitting together a pitching staff suited my fancy much better — and since I was the one who was doing all the thinking about it, I figured I’d just go with it.

Take a walk with me, if you will, through the Twins blogosphere. And please do bear in mind that there are no right or wrong answers here — even more so than usual, that is — and there are no stats here. If you read all these blogs already, then you probably know even better than I do that this is all just so much nonsense. On the other hand, you might find a new blog to check out. And that would make the whole thing worthwhile.

Rotation

Ace: Aaron Gleeman

The veteran of the staff, and the most respected around the league — most teams don’t have an Ace like Gleeman. If effective writing is a fastball and statistical analysis is breaking balls, then Gleeman has pretty good stuff. And if wordcount says anything about how deep he can go into games, then he can give the bullpen a break pretty much every time out.

Second Starter: Seth Speaks

The second starter is Seth Stohs, who does excellent work with the Twins’ farm system, produces a regular podcast, and is consistently interesting and thoughtful. You could do worse in a #2 starter. From what I can tell, he’s also a go-to guy on Twitter when someone wants a question answered; he manages to combine a great understanding of the game with a significant following and, somehow, a lack of the arrogance that typically comes with people caring about what you think.

Third Starter: Nick’s Twins Blog

Nick Nelson is so good his blog was picked up by the ESPN SweetSpot network, but he still writes about the Twins, so he’s eligible to be on this team. Once again, consistent and thoughful: the Twins Blogosphere has a pretty good playoff rotation. He’s got the good fastball, he has good command of his breaking stuff (stats), and he posts regularly.

Fourth Starter: Twinkie Town

This is a very active community blog. They have a sizable team of writers, constantly refreshing their page with new content. Seriously: they post several new articles every day. A lot of managers like to have an innings eater on staff, and that’s what you’ll get at Twinkie Town; guaranteed innings. So if you’re feeling bored, feel free to go get sucked in.

Fifth Starter: Twins Geek

It’s probably unfair to call John Bonnes of Twins Geek the fifth starter; he knows his baseball and can write a fair bit too. His penchant for coming up with interesting takes without getting too bogged down in esoteric numbers is refreshing, and he’ll frequently whip out a good non-stats article to keep you on your toes. I originally had him anchoring the bullpen, but you can get more value out of a starter than you can out of a reliever. I think he’d appreciate that.

Bullpen

Closer: The WGOM

You don’t need a closer every day — though you’d like him to be available at any time — but when you do need him you want him to have a blazing fastball, a biting slider, and a certain presence on the mound. You want stats? You want analysis? You want funny stories? You want to bring in this team of writers, led by StickAndBallGuy, to finish off the game for you.

Setup man: Over the Baggy

Graphs. Charts. Numbers. Good ideas. When you’ve got a narrow lead late in the game, those are the kinds of pitches that will maintain that lead. The author, Parker Hageman, “takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player’s heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse.” What I mean is, he has good command of his breaking ball.

LOOGY: A Fan’s View

If you need to get a tough lefty, you don’t necessarily need the biggest fastball or the most advanced numbers — sometimes it’s best to come at him from an angle he wouldn’t expect. Howard Sinker writes for the Star Tribune, but he does it from the fan’s perspective — he’s not a beat writer. Sometimes a little off the beaten trail, but he’ll keep your spirits up when the team is getting you down.

Middle relief: k-bro’s baseball blog

k-bro may not bring the stats as consistently as many other bloggers do, but don’t take that as a criticism; if the entire blogosphere was all-stats-all-the-time, it’d be just as bad as the no-stats-ever Mainstream Old Guy Media that thinks blogs are just for stats in the first place. The point is, you don’t need to have a lot of numbers on your pages to write a good blog, and k-bro writes a good blog.

Long relief: Josh’s Thoughts

Your long reliever doesn’t get into a lot of games, but when he does come in you’re going to want him to give you some innings. And Josh Johnson — who has the sort of name that makes you think he’s got a future in this game — doesn’t disappoint when he takes the mound. He hasn’t posted much recently, but when he does it’s a lengthy, well-considered article in which he does an excellent job articulating his ideas. Like most long relievers, you hope that he can gain some consistency and earn a spot in the starting rotation some day.

That was fun … and more difficult than I thought it would be. Figuring out who was a better baseball player than whom must have been quite the ordeal back in those dark days before Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs existed. And maybe I’m just getting ready to get old, but it seems to me that if there’s ever a site that actually measures baseball bloggers on objective metrics and ostensibly assigns a “value” to them, well, blogging will have gotten just a little more fun. A dark day, you might say.

Unless those stats tell me that I’m good, in which case I’m all for them.

When the Twins traded (apparently former) top prospect Wilson Ramos for (allegedly proven) closer Matt Capps, I was not thrilled — Ramos had been in the conversation as the headliner of a deal for Cliff Lee, and when the Yankees and Rangers outbid the Twins, Ramos became the headliner of a deal for Dan Haren. After it became clear that Haren didn’t want any part of participating in a playoff race — I assume that was his reason for putting the Twins on his no-trade clause — Bill Smith apparently felt that Wilson Ramos must go, no matter the return.

So Capps and I got off to a bad start. He was going to have to pitch really, really well to dig himself out of the hole that Smith dug for him — and even then, it may not have been enough. I say that to get my bias out of the way.

Since coming to the Twins, Capps has pitched 18 innings in 18 games, with a seemingly-shiny 2.00 ERA. Opposing hitters are hitting .288/.347/.379 off him — not great, but it’s not like he’s getting lit up — and that’s with the benefit of a .353 BABIP. He’s blown a couple of saves, but the Twins have not lost a game that he’s entered with the lead.

After using him primarily as a full-inning Closer through August — and giving him extended days of rest while the rest of the bullpen went down with the ship — Gardy has already thrown Capps into some unusual situations so far in September. On Friday, September 3, Capps entered the game in the 8th inning with one out and men on 1st and 3rd, with just a one run lead; he escaped the jam in the 8th and pitched a scoreless 9th for an impressive five-out save. At that point I considered writing this article, admitting that I may have been wrong about Capps, and that he’s really not the worst thing to happen to Closing Ballgames since Latroy Hawkins.

But on Sunday, September 5, Capps turned in the most Capps-like outing possible. He entered the game with a three run lead with two outs in the 9th inning, and a man on second base. The game had been in the bag for a while, as the Twins had held a 6-2 lead since the 7th inning; the Rangers hadn’t scored since the 2nd, and had never been as close as tied since Cuddyer doubled in two runs in the bottom of the first. So after Rauch managed to turn it into a Save Situation in the 9th, Capps came in to drive up his arbitration price this winter. He gave up a single to Christian Guzman, a single to Michael Young, and walked Daniel Murphy. The bases were loaded, still two outs, and the score was 6-4. Vladimir Guerrero was batting. The fun, easy victory that had been dancing on my TV screen for a few hours was being chained to the floor and tortured by the unfriendly-looking Capps — what had that victory ever done to him?

Guerrero hit a ball up the middle, and it looked like the game would be tied. But Orlando Hudson showed a surprising amount of range and saved the game — he’d keep it tied for at least one more batter! — and then, when he thought he wouldn’t have a play, he saw Michael Young rounding third base just a little too far and fired. It was a close play at third, but Young had reached the bag safely. The umpire, though, didn’t seem to care about that. He saw some inadvertent contact between Young and the third base coach, and called Young out to end the game.

Matt Capps got his Save, and he did it without retiring a single batter. I’m sure that’s happened before, but I can’t remember it and I don’t know how to look it up.

And I suppose this is the thing about Capps. He can be so infuriating at times — blowing saves, being awarded saves despite facing four batters and retiring zero of them, all the while sporting this strangely bemused look on his face — that I just want to tweet cruel things like “Matt Capps is definitely going to help the Twins in the playoffs. Help them lose.” and “If Wilson Ramos never makes it to the majors, the Twins still got screwed on that trade. #IHateMattCapps”, and “After the game we’re taking a trip to the glue factory, and Matt Capps doesn’t get to come!” (I didn’t actually tweet that last one, but it’s been waiting on the tips of my fingers for the next time Capps blows a save.)

On the other hand, he does have a solid fastball, and he does help win games. He’s the third person to ever record 10 saves in both leagues in one season, which isn’t nothing. He looks like Louis CK pretending to be a baseball player.

That’s going to make me laugh every time I look at Matt Capps from now on. Seriously, try to deny that he looks like Louis CK making fun of being a baseball player. You can’t do it.

His very presence pushes the rest of the relievers forward an inning, which improves the bullpen regardless of how well he actually does — and as noted, despite the rollercoaster ride, the Twins have won every game he’s entered with a lead. And, at the end of the day, that’s what you pay your Closer for.

I suppose this is what I’m trying to say:

Matt Capps, I will never forgive you for that trade, no matter how long you live.

No, wait. That’s not it. Let’s try that again:

Matt Capps, that trade wasn’t your fault. You didn’t make the Twins give up Wilson Ramos. Just keep up the good work, and I’ll try to stop having a heart attack every time you release a pitch. Deal?

Maybe it’s a bit of both.

Delmon Young has been white hot.  But you all know that.  Out west (actually, south) Josh Hamilton of the Rangers has been equally hot.  Literally. Their numbers in July are shockingly close.  Let’s take a look:

The only places Delmon has a noticble advantage  are batting average and RBI.  These are from ESPN, so forgive their basic-ness, but I think it’s best to use these for any discussion, because I can’t see AL sportswriters delving any deeper.  Another factor we have to consider is probably team record during the month of July.  Now, why this would have any bearing on an INDIVIDUAL award is beyond me, but we all now that is how it works.  Surprise! Both teams are 11-11 as of this morning.

While a player of the month award for July couldn’t get much less important, I just find it interesting how well, and similar, these two guys have been playing.  Delmon is probably still considered a “bad apple” by many, and Hamilton will probably always been a “feel good story”.  So, we’ll have to see if one of these two guys (or teams) can distinguish themselves from the other over the next few days.  What does everyone else think?

Anytime a player I hate succeeds, I get pretty upset.  When Jesse Crain throws 2 scoreless innings in a game that has already been decided, I seethe. When Matt Tolbert (and to a lesser extent, Punto)  hits a homer in a blowout victory, I want to throw a remote through my television.  Why? Because it gives them one more chance.  People like Tolbert and Crain make a career out of a string of “one more chances”.  If Crain pitches well in a blowout, Gardy will give him a shot the next day in a close game.  If he screws up, well, it’s back to garbage time.  When he succeeds there, Gardy says “Wow, he looks good.  Let’s give him a shot in a high leverage situation”  It’s like the baseball version of cycle of poverty, except since it is baseball it matters more.

If the game is on the line, I don’t care who gets the big hit, or who pitches the scoreless innings out of the bullpen. In blowout games though, is it so much to ask that Jesse Crain gets lit up, or that Tolbert makes two errors and strikes out looking on 3 pitches?  Now, I know what you’re saying.  “How can it be a close game if our secondbaseman is playing like shit?” Well, humor me and let’s say it can happen.

Am I the only one who gets a little upset when these worthless fringe major leaguers play well?

Who else do you hate to see succeed? Doesn’t have to be a Twins player.

We can put men on base.

The Twins have had a lot of baserunners this year, seemingly able to load the bases at will; often doing it multiple times per game. Again and again, they put a man on third with fewer than two outs. They’ve given themselves many, many opportunities to score.

The next guy still has a chance to drive these runs in.

This nearly-constant flow of baserunners, this ongoing, apparently unstoppable stream of hits and walks, has led many people — myself included — to simply expect that at some point, the runs must come. The ability to get on base is the key to a good offense, and the Twins have been near the league lead in walks all season, led by Morneau’s otherworldly OBP pushing .500; and they are scoring runs, finding themselves among the league leaders in runs scored.

We’re not hitting homers, what if we don’t start? What if the runs don’t come?

But they lead the league in men left of on base, and they lead the league in team GIDP. Those are things that grind on you, as a fan. With every burgeoning rally wiped out by another taylor-made grounder to short, your shoulders slump a little more. As it goes, you start expecting these bums to fail.

It’s like in that Simpsons episode, Dancin’ Homer, when the Isotopes are down to their final out and need a bit hit, the announcer says “And, after he pops out, we’ll go straight to the postgame.”

With all these rallies getting snuffed out, we need to come through with a big hit. Big swing here.

Over the first several weeks of the season, I’ve been preaching a very patient approach to the Twins’ struggles with men on base. It’s pretty likely there are people — even those who would agree that the Twins’ performance with the bases occupied is bound to improve at some point — who would say I’ve been too adamant in my stance that there’s really nothing to worry about. That if we just keep waiting, the runs will come.

Nuts, got under it. Crap, topped that one to short. Swinging too hard?

The thing is, this is the kind of thing that can dwell in your mind. It can nag at you. And the nagging gets loudest when you find yourself in the biggest, most important spots of the game. That’s when the doubt sets in most.

Another inning-ending double play. Of course.

Now, I have a question. You see all those italics up there? I’ve thought every one of those things, during many games this season. Sometimes I tweeted it, sometimes I texted Robert, sometimes I mentioned it to my dad on Skype, and sometimes I’d just keep it to myself. Probably most of the time I kept it to myself; after all, you’re supposed to take it easy with these minor, individual events. Millions of them happen over the course of a long season, and some go your way and some don’t, and you don’t want to be too annoying. I don’t, anyway. I don’t know how successful I am, though.

Anyhow, I imagine a lot of people have shared those thoughts, and have felt that same doubt. I know that some people have, because I’ve argued against them plenty.

My main fear is that some of the people who’re thinking those poisonous italic sentences happen to be in the dugout. That the players share my doubts; that would change everything. Players aren’t supposed to suffer those doubts, they’re not supposed to worry the same way a fan does. If they are, we’re in trouble. More importantly, they have to stop before they can start hitting.

When I tell myself it’s okay to relax and expect the runs to come, in a big way I’m expecting that the players aren’t worried about it, that they’re able to put these individual micro-events of the baseball season behind them. That’s their job. It’s part of being a baseball player. But … am I believing in them too much?

When individual players have a slump, they say in interviews (long after the slump is over) that it can drive you crazy, and you can start subconsciously tweaking your mechanics, and you get even more out of whack, and before you know it the slump has taken on a life of its own. You’ve created a monster. After so much time, it’s conceivable that such a thing may be able to effect an entire team at once — and if so, the symptoms would look an awful lot like the Twins’ recent foibles.

I’m talking about something kind of fuzzy here, so I hope you’ll forgive me if I go a little anecdotal here. Here are some normally-minor events from Wednesday night’s game:

1. Cuddyer finally batted with nobody on in front of him, and he connected on one and drove a double deep to right center. Standing on second base, he was smiling, like a weight was lifted off his shoulders.

2. Hudson got a good cut in and hit a hard line drive straight back up the middle, but Pettitte managed, somehow, to leap up and catch it, ending Hudson’s bid for a hit before he’d gotten out of the batter’s box. His head tilted back and he showed off a wry smile.

3. Delmon came through with a double that drove in a run (from first); a batter later, he was picked off while napping on a grounder back to the pitcher. Back in the dugout, Delmon had a big smile* on his face and was chatting happily with teammates.

* We keep saying that with Delmon’s defensive abilities, he’ll have to hit like Manny Ramirez to be a good player. (Kind of like the real Manny Ramirez.) Well, continuing to bask in that RBI’s warm glow even after costing the team a runner in scoring position by making a boneheaded mistake was just Delmon Being Manny.

Are these the signs of a team playing loose? Or are they signs of a team that’s losing faith in itself?

Your answer probably says more about you than it does about the team.

At least … I’d sure like to think so.

Everyone probably knows I’m a big fan of Pat Neshek. He’s a Minnesota product with a funky delivery who strikes a lot of guys out and is remarkably accessible to the fans via both his blog and his Twitter account. What’s not to like?

His delivery has been debated back and forth here on the wild ol’ internet; is he only getting strikeouts because of his weird motion? Will hitters adjust to that and start hitting him once it’s no longer novel? Will it cause an injury, since it’s so unorthodox?

I’ve always argued that he’s effective because of his stuff, not because of his unusual delivery; if he had a perfectly normal delivery, it wouldn’t suddenly become easy to hit a 91 MPH fastball with wicked late movement. Or to adjust to its accompanying nasty frisbee slider.

Despite Neshek’s recent Tommy John surgery that cost him almost two full seasons, I think the injury concerns are overblown. Pitchers get hurt all the time whether their deliveries are orthodox or not; I don’t see why his “unique” motion should make a difference.

But you know what Neshek is missing? A good nickname. And thanks to an idea I picked up from Thrylos98, I think I’ve got one.

Watch this video of Neshek’s delivery:

Then watch this video of some old-timer:

For those of you who aren’t 90+ years old, that was Walter Johnson, a legendary pitcher and long-time member of the Senators/Twins franchise.

So Neshek’s delivery is remarkably similar to Johnson’s; Neshek is from the Twin Cities.

Johnson was a starter, a horse who could pitch a ton of innings; Neshek is a short reliever, who throws a single inning at a time.

Walter Johnson was The Big Train.

I propose that Pat Neshek is The Local.

I had another fantasy baseball draft this evening.  It is a keeper league in its fourth year, and this year my keepers were: Mauer, Tulowitzki, Longoria, Ellsbury, and Halladay.  I think that is a solid core, I get third, short, and catcher covered, which are pretty shallow.  For our categories we use R, RBI, HR, SB, OBP, SLG, W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K, QS.  I got steals covered with Ellsbury, Mauer does well in all of those categories (except SB), and Longoria & Tulo aren’t too shabby either.  So, since I finished 3rd last year I had the third to last pick in the first round (6th round after keepers).

• Kendry Morales, 1B LAA (70th)
• Aaron Hill, 2B TOR (75th)
• Jonathan Papelbon, RP BOS (94th)
• Manny Ramierz, OF LAD (99th)
• AJ Burnett, SP NYY  (118th)
• Kevin Slowey, SP MIN (123rd)
• Jason Kubel, OF MIN (142nd)
• Yunel Escobar, SS ATL (147th)
• Nolan Reimold, OF BAL (166th)
• Wade Davis, SP TB (171st)
• David Aardsma, RP SEA (190th)
• Dexter Fowler, OF COL (195th)
• Scott Feldman, SP TEX (214th)

I really like my offense.  Good balance of power, and OBP.  I could use a little more speed, so I can always insert Fowler into my lineup if someone doesn’t perform/gets hurt. I picked up Escobar because he is a solid SS who I can always trade if someone else loses their SS, or I can use him if Tulo gets hurt.  I’m kind of surprised that Kubel, who was top 10 in AL OPS last year, fell to me that late.  I’m excited about Wade Davis, well the front office of the Rays is excited about him but that means I should be too. Right? Scott Feldman was a 17 game winner last year, so taking him with the last pick isn’t a terrible idea. Even if he regresses a little he should still be solid.  If anyone made it to the end of this post, please let me know what you think of my team.