Hitting the Foul Pole

Pitch to contact.

It’s a phrase whose meaning seems completely obvious to everyone who hears it — except that nobody seems to be able to agree, exactly, on a definition. For some, it means that you should put the ball over the plate repeatedly, eschewing both strikeouts and walks and relying completely on the defense behind you for your success. For others, it means you should rely on your stuff and put the ball over the plate, and let the balls fall where they may. Maybe some people don’t even see the difference between those definitions.

Sometimes, it can seem like “pitch to contact” is the only way some guys can survive in the league; could Nick Blackburn succeed if he were nibbling on the corners and walking guys in an effort to strike them out, or does he need to put the ball in the strike zone and hope the balls find gloves?

But other times, “pitch to contact” seems foolish, like when you’re talking about the antithesis of Nick Blackburn, one Francisco Liriano. His main talent is inducing swings and misses — literally pitching away from contact — and that has always been where his value lies. This, I think, is what frustrates so many fans when the Twins insist to Liriano that he should be pitching to contact. It seems, from far away, that he should be doing the exact opposite of that.

And, from my vantage point far away, it seems like Liriano also thinks that he should be doing the opposite of that. In 2010, Liriano had an unusually high 33% of balls put into play become hits behind him — a pitcher doesn’t have total control over how many balls the defense will convert into outs behind him, and all pitchers generally allow between 29-30% to become hits — which is why his tremendous strikeout-to-walk ratio didn’t translate into an equally-sparkling ERA and win/loss record. It’s a primary reason Liriano’s 2010 was described as “unlucky.” It stands to reason, then, that Liriano would react by avoiding contact, by trying to take more of the game into his own hands, by trying to rely less on his defense, which had repeatedly failed him all year.

This spring, I went to a game at Hammond Stadium that Liriano started. He only last three innings — and he struck out nine guys. Every out he recorded was via a strikeout. Of course, he also allowed four hits and three walks; and those seven baserunners in three innings amounted to one run. That start was a microcosm of everything that is right with Liriano, that is wrong with Liriano, that goes Liriano’s way, and that goes against him. And it’s further evidence, I think, in the mind of the pitcher that he can’t rely on the defense. If the batter makes any contact at all, they get a hit. So why in the world would he want to pitch to contact, and thus get shelled?

What I’m saying is that I can fully understand why Liriano would think that pitching to contact is a bad idea, and why he wouldn’t want to submit his chances for success to the sub-par defense behind him, and to the cruel fates who’ve decided that luck isn’t on his side.

And I can also easily understand that the Twins don’t want him trying to do everything himself — you can’t strikeout everyone, and if you try you’ll end up throwing too many sliders out of the zone and walk a guy every inning and run your pitch count so high you have to get pulled early in the game. A pitcher has to understand that he cannot control every outcome; he can only put himself in the best position to take advantage of the breaks that must eventually come his way.

But the real definition of “pitch to contact” continues to elude. Gardy has done his part to inject some confusion into the dialog:

“We understand that he can strike people out, but if he really wants to become a pitcher, pitch to contact.”

Statements like that lend credence to the “pitch-to-contact means stop trying to strike people out” camp, of which Liriano apparently counts himself a member (after a start against the Royals in which he successfully “pitched to contact” while giving up five straight singles):

Liriano said he was “throwing more fastballs than I used to in the game today,” adding, “I just wanted them to put them to put the ball in play, not try to strike out a lot of people.”

This debate has been raging among fans all season, fueled by the burgeoning loss column, and by each miserable Liriano start, and by Pavano’s league-worst strikeout rate.

On Monday, the heavyweights of the Twins blogosphere drew lines in the sand. Nick Nelson took the position that the Twins have been trying to tell Liriano to pitch well, and that his struggles are all on him and his command.

When Liriano was struggling he was barely throwing 50% strikes. How does that qualify as “pitching to contact”? Seems like an excuse. (@nnelson9)

I’d say that yesterday Liriano did exactly what the Twins want him to do. Throw strikes early in count, get ahead, then unleash the nasty. (@nnelson9)

Aaron Gleeman took the position that “pitch to contact” doesn’t seem to exactly mean the same thing as “pitch well,” and that the Twins have been confusing.

And you’re saying the Twins basically just wanted him to pitch well, in which case they sure phrased that oddly. (@aarongleeman)

If they just wanted him to “throw strikes” I don’t see why they wouldn’t say that. What they said was different. (@aarongleeman)

So you’re saying all the Twins did was phrase “throw strikes” poorly and now Liriano is just making excuses? That’s a tough sell. (@aarongleeman)

Nelson continued:

I think it’s clear Twins wanted him to do just what he did yesterday. 66% strikes, lots of quick outs, still plenty of K’s. (@nnelson9)

“Pitch to contact” is just their terminology. People acting like they were trying to turn him into Duensing is insane. (@nnelson9)

I think he gets in a mentality sometimes where he gets too fine, tries to make every pitch unhittable, racks up huge p-counts (@nnelson9)

Saying, “Throw the ball over the plate early in the count, your stuff is great, don’t be afraid of contact” = right approach. (@nnelson9)

So, after watching the argument from the sidelines,* who’s right here?

* Gleeman later pointed out that “having long, public Twitter conversations with people you often instant message with feels weird.” Basically, this was a private conversation, one that friends and strangers have had thousands of times in every bar in the country … and this one had an audience of thousands. I’m going to go ahead and call this one of the wonders of Twitter.

Nelson’s basic premise assumes that he understands what the Twins have been trying to say with their “pitch to contact” mantra. That when they say “pitch to contact,” they don’t mean “be like Nick Blackburn and give up a lot of hits,” which is how it sometimes seems. So what are the Twins saying about that?

To clarify, it wasn’t that Gardenhire and Anderson instructed Liriano to get rid of the strikeouts and pitch to the barrel of opponents’ bats in April. They simply told Liriano, “Don’t be afraid (of contact),” Anderson said.

“You can’t strike everyone out on the first pitch. Your stuff’s pretty good to get to two strikes. …

“That was basically ‘attack them more, trust your stuff.’ But if you back up farther, it’s more or less, ‘keep yourself under control and let your pitches work,’ like you saw (Sunday).”

Rick Anderson, clearly, falls into the “what the Twins mean is that pitch-to-contact means ‘pitch well’” camp. (Which is utterly unsurprising, of course, because it strains belief that the pitching coach would actively want to make Liriano a worse pitcher, which has sometimes been the accusation around the blogosphere.)

It seems, then, that Nelson has understood what the Twins have been trying to say in way that many others haven’t. When the Twins explain themselves more explicitly, they’re saying exactly what Nelson says they mean. Still, it’s hard to quibble with Gleeman’s position that a) why not just say “throw strikes and trust your stuff” and scuttle the “pitch to contact” terminology that is so confusing? and b) whenever Liriano has tried to “pitch to contact” he’s been focused on the contact and it hasn’t worked at all.

Liriano, meanwhile, may have misunderstood the coaches in the same way that most fans have. Here’s what he said after another bad start last month:

“To be honest, yeah, it’s a little bit hard for me,” Liriano said about pitching to contact. “But I want to go deeper into games, I don’t want to be throwing four innings, five innings. Whatever I have to do to go deeper into games.”

And this week, after nearly no-hitting the Rangers:

“I’ve always been the power pitcher, trying to strike out people,” Liriano said. “I’m not the guy who’s going to get 10 groundballs or 12 groundballs in a game. I’m trying to be me, (the way) I used to pitch last year and the year before. I’m not thinking about contact at all. …

“I feel more comfortable pitching like that (power guy).”

So, if there are misunderstandings among the fans as to what exactly the Twins mean when they say “pitch to contact,” well, I don’t think it’s that surprising. They haven’t successfully explained it to their best pitcher either. Is that Liriano’s fault, or is it on Gardenhire and Anderson? Like most failures in communication, I think a little bit of blame goes to both sides.

Gleeman and Liriano, like Nelson and the Twins, all have a point. Liriano does need to learn to pitch, and he can’t just try to strike everyone out every time. He needs to learn to rely on his defense, but even more than that he needs to learn to trust his stuff — hitting a baseball is the hardest thing you can do, and Liriano’s stuff is good enough that most major league hitters can’t make good contact even when it’s in the strike zone. Liriano needs to grasp the intrinsic difficulty of hitting, and take advantage of it. Part of that is that he needs to stop dancing outside the zone in hopes of tempting the hitter to swing at something he can’t even reach.

At the same time, though, the Twins need to make more of an effort to explain to him what exactly they mean when they tell him that. A good teacher isn’t one that is always right — it’s one that knows his students well enough to say exactly what each of them needs to hear in order to learn. “Pitch to contact” might be clear enough for Blackburn, but it is obviously not clear enough for Liriano. So they should probably stop saying it, and stick to different platitudes like “throw strikes” and “trust your stuff” when it comes time to teach him.

It’s a learning moment for everyone, then, from the fans to Liriano to the Twins. All thanks to an oddly public conversation on Twitter.

Well, that was a nice little vacation.  We here at hitting the foul pole decided to take most of the winter off, rather than provide you with regular, but probably sub-par content.  We’re back starting today.  As you all know, the Twins open up the 2011 season in Canada when Pavano faces Ricky Romero at 6:07 (07?! WTF) at the RogersCentre (centre?! WTF) in Toronto.

I’ve been reading recaps from the handful of games that took place yesterday and for most of the winning teams, the phrase “according to plan” was in the recap somewhere.  That got me thinking, what should the Twins “plan” be to win the game today (and win the division).  Last year, Pavano was relied upon to pitch deep into the ballgame, so one would assume that getting him into the 7th is a major part of the plan. That goes for probably everyone on the staff, but having the Kevin Slowey insurance blanket will be nice if someone flames out.  Another thing that was supposed to be part of last year’s plan was Span getting on base, that didn’t happen too often in 2010.  I think we need to see Span dramatically raise his OBP from last year and get it back into his 2008-09 range.  I think he is capable of doing that, Over the Baggy did a nice write up looking for the root of his problem in 2010. I think everyone knows how the rest of the plan is suppose to work.  Get guys on base for Mauer-Morneau-Young (and maybe Cuddyer and Kubel) and they drive them in.  That part of the plan is pretty simple. Even with Span’s problems we scored plenty of runs last year.

The next step is keeping everyone healthy.  Losing Morneau last year didn’t hurt us nearly as much as I would have thought.  However, that doesn’t mean I want it to happen again.  Some of the more injury prone guys need to be given their fair share (or maybe more) days off early on, so that they can be 100% for the stretch run. It also helps that there are a lot of off days in April.

What else do the Twins need to do to be successful this season? I know I’m not breaking any ground with “get on base” and “stay healthy” but when it comes down to it, the formula for winning isn’t that complicated.  Welcome back to HTFP and we hope to have a great season.

Last week, the Twins signed Francisco Liriano to a one year, $4.3M deal to avoid arbitration this year. It was a wise move — salary arbitration can be a rough process, with potential ramifications for the relationship between the team and the player, because in the course of making its case the team essentially has to do everything it can to insult the player. Additionally, the Twins have in the past signed a deal like this one to avoid arbitration while continuing to work on a long term extension; that’s exactly what they did with Morneau, ripping up and replacing his one year contract with a six year extension after just one week.

So, a week later, what happens? Well, we get a report from Joe Christensen that says that the Twins’ relationship with their ace left hander is apparently already sour, and they do not plan to give him an extension — in fact, he says that trading Liriano “isn’t just crazy talk.”

One thing is clear: The Twins don’t plan to sign him long term. Last weekend, they avoided arbitration with a one-year, $4.3 million deal. From what I’ve heard, their long-term talks went nowhere, with Liriano’s camp hinting it wanted a three-year, $39 million contract.

First, let’s take a look at Liriano’s demands for a 3/$39M deal. He has two years of arbitration left, so that deal would cover one year of free agency. The second year of arbitration typically is valued at 60% of free market, and the third and final year is typically 80% of free market value. So this three year deal would effectively pay for 2.4 years of Liriano’s free market services, which means Liriano’s agent is placing a year of Liriano’s services on the free agent market at $16.25; now, how good would Liriano have to be to be worth that price? I can’t tell how much a win is going for on the free agent market right now, but it seems like it’s somewhere between $4M/win and $5M/win. At $4M/win, that contract would value Liriano as a 4 WAR pitcher; at $4.5M/win, he’d have to be a 3.6 WAR pitcher; at $5M/win, he’d have to be a 3.25 WAR pitcher.

On the other hand, his $4.3M deal this year is supposed to be 60% of his free market value, which means his current contract values him at just $7.1M, probably taking into account his shaky track record and the fact that he remains a significant injury risk.

Let’s take a gander at said shaky track record — in 2006 he put up 4.1 WAR in a shortened season prior to his injury, and that injury and his slow recovery from it led to 0 WAR in a missed 2007, 1.5 WAR in 2008, and 1.1 WAR in 2009, before he broke out again and posted 6.0 WAR as one of the top pitchers in the league in 2010. And all his predictive statistics indicate that his performance was sustainable and will even improve with better-than-the-worst-luck-in-the-league. If you believe he’s healthy and can remain healthy, Liriano seems like a safe bet to be a 4 WAR pitcher and the contract is a no-brainer. If you think he’s a huge injury risk or that his success in 2006 and 2010 was a fluke and his true talent lies somewhere in the “can’t throw strikes or get anybody out” range that he showed in 2008 and 2009 while his velocity was down, then you probably wouldn’t want to guarantee him any more money or years than you absolutely have to.

The Star Tribune is — at the very least — strongly implying that this is the Twins’ thinking. That the Twins front office is actually down on Liriano and does not want to sign him to an extension. That they are, like some sportswriters and fans, selectively seeing only Liriano’s failures in 2010 and not his dominant outings. That they’re seriously entertaining the idea of trading Liriano for pennies on the dollar.

in his final 20 starts, including the postseason, he didn’t finish the eighth inning once.

That seems like an odd measure of talent. The ability to finish eight innings in a start? In the second half of your first full major league season in your career, after pitching all winter in winter ball and all summer at multiple levels the previous year while recovering from major elbow surgery? I hope that’s not a “stat” that people lend any real credence to.

In his much-hyped showdown with Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez, the Rockies batted around in the first inning. The Twins won all five of Liriano’s starts against the White Sox, but his performances were more white-knuckle than dominant.

He had a bad game, and then he won a bunch of games against a division rival during a pennant race, but those don’t count because they were close games.

Then, in Game 1 of the Division Series, Liriano had a 3-0 lead in the sixth inning when the Yankees came back to tie it. Afterward, Liriano was his usual polite self, but it was a huge letdown for the team.

Then he lost a game in the playoffs, and it counts because it was a close game.

Oh, and if you think that “logic” from the Star Tribune (or, worse, the Twins) is inane, here’s some more. This time from Howard Sinker, “analyzing” how the Twins could make a trade work.

The fact that manager Ron Gardenhire has talked about the need for more speed in the middle infield is all well and good. But when you have the chance to replace Alexi Casilla with Michael Young, this is a time when you sacrifice speed and some defense and go for the bat. Casilla would make a fine fifth infielder.

And as Jim Bowden, the former Reds and Nationals GM, said on his XM/Sirius show Wednesday afternoon, the Rangers are in a position where they won’t get 100 percent value for Young.

In a deal with the Twins, that would mean Texas picking up a big chunk of Young’s salary. For the Rangers, it means getting a lefty pitcher who doesn’t have Lee’s credentials, but brings a lot more to them than other options. (Somehow, I don’t think that signing ex-Brewer Dave Bush is viewed as a replacement for Lee.)

Rangers beat writer Evan Grant wrote the other day that “right now, about all you can get (for Young) is a bad contract.” The Rockies had been talking about a Young deal that included second baseman Eric Young Jr.

So Liriano totally blows away anything that’s been discussed — which is why the Rangers have so far dismissed what’s on the table.

So, let me get this straight. The Twins suddenly have an “opportunity” to replace their speed-oriented middle infield with a “bat” in the form of Michael Young. And the Rangers are in the position of having to either eat Young’s ridiculous salary or take a pittance in a trade, or both. That’s why the trade market for Young’s services are ice cold — other teams realize he’s an old man whose contract matches his production so poorly that he’s not worth acquiring even if the Rangers pick up most of his salary. And since the Rangers won’t get full value, and the best offer they’ve received so far is Eric Young Jr — who has never been better than replacement level in his career, with a -0.3 WAR and -0.4 WAR in the last two seasons — the obvious solution is that the Twins should offer Francisco Liriano, their best pitcher, one of their best players?

Sinker is right that Liriano totally blows away anything that’s been discussed in the Young talks thus far. And that’s because if the Twins are offering Liriano to the Rangers, the return should be more like Neftali Feliz + high end prospects, rather than drastically-overpaid-old-guy. Dave Cameron expects that Liriano’s trade value is somewhere between Marcum’s and Garza’s,* and thus should yield someone close to a top prospect but not an absolute-top-shelf prospect. Note in that article that Michael Young isn’t mentioned, because it’s ludicrous to even consider that.

* That’s the Garza 2 trade, when the Rays got all of the Cubs’ top prospects for him. Not the Garza 1 trade when the Twins got a busted prospect for him. Bill Smith just keeps looking better and better, eh?

Oh … and if it’s a good idea to scrap the speed-in-the-middle-infield plan in favor of an infielder who can actually hit, what about the one the Twins gave up, JJ Hardy? He offered elite defense at shortstop — something Young absolutely does not. He offered a bat with some pop in it — something Young absolutely does not. He had an affordable contract — something Young absolutely does not. He yielded a couple of mediocre relief pitchers in a trade — not anything close to the value of Liriano.

I can’t tell what the Star Tribune is doing here. Have they actually heard, from the Twins, that Liriano-for-Young talks have happened, or that the Twins are considering starting such talks? Are they accurately representing the Twins’ views on Liriano? Or are they making this up, speculating for the sake of stirring the hot stove pot, baiting clicks to their website where they automatically refresh the page every 30 seconds to goose their pageviews and falsely inflate their pageview statistics to get a better rate on their advertisements? Have they really become this desperate, now that Phil Mackey and ESPN have rendered them completely useless? Ouch.

Publicly, the Twins keep saying Liriano is a big part of their 2011 plans. They’d love to see him prove the skeptics wrong and blossom into a 20-game winner, even if this leaves fans screaming about their decision not to sign him long term.

When your best hope is that you get embarrassed — and you work to ensure that’ll happen no matter what — then you’re doing something wrong.

What do you think? Are the Twins seriously considering this, or is the Strib just stirring the pot? What do you think is the right thing to do with Liriano — go year to year through arbitration, sign him to a long term extension, or trade him? And what do you think is a reasonable return in trade, or size of contract?

Since arriving in 2004, even more than his on-the-field production, Nick Punto’s main contribution to the team and its fans has been that he has represented the Minnesota Twins to the world.

When I say represented, I mean it in a good way, I think. Nick Punto has embodied the Twins’ Platonic ideal of what a position player should be; high-effort, high-hustle, defensive-minded, versatile, singles hitter who values a high batting average at the expense of walks and extra base hits. Nick Punto has also been a metaphor for the team’s success over the past several years; outmatched on paper by superior teams with higher payrolls, with virtues that seem to exist but can’t (yet?) be quantified, but somehow competitive year in and year out.

I’ve given Punto more than his fair share of grief over the years. My thinking had been along the lines of what a utility player like Punto is worth to a team — for a good team with a high payroll and many good players and the expectation of contending, a good utility guy is worth a lot more than he would be to a team with a low payroll and a smaller collection of good players. If Punto is the fifth-most important player on your team, then you have a bad team; if Punto is the tenth-most important player, then you have a good team.

And I always thought that the Twins could have spent Punto’s salary better in other places, when they had smaller payrolls and dollars were scarce. Now that the team has more revenue and a higher payroll, I naturally assumed that bringing back Punto was essentially a no-brainer. Not only could the team clearly afford it, but he has fans among his teammates and the coaching staff and the media and the fanbase. Joe Christensen points out that that assumption appears to be faulty:

Punto is still a free agent, but from all indications, the Twins won’t be bringing him back.

What?

There are a few options, as I see it, to explain what the Twins may be thinking.

• Nick Punto is over the hill, and/or his performance will drop below what they have come to expect from him
• The performance gap between Punto and Tolbert will be smaller than the salary gap, and they’re making a value play
• They simply can’t afford it
• They disagree with my premise that a utility player is more valuable to a high-payroll team and don’t think they need him any more
• They are signalling that they are adjusting their vision of the ideal ballplayer — throwing out the mold, if you will

The Twins would have you believe that the issue is money, and they cannot afford Punto’s services:

With a projected Opening Day payroll of $113 million, they insist they have reached their limit. Insiders say Carl Pavano’s contract actually pushed them over budget, requiring special approval from CEO Jim Pohlad.

On the other hand, Christensen asserts that “even if it meant taking a sizeable pay cut, Punto would be thrilled to return,” though he doesn’t provide a source. Maybe Punto told him as much directly, and maybe he didn’t. The sizeable paycut angle, I think, bashes a crowbar against the kneecaps of both the performance/salary gap theory and the overall can’t-afford-it theory, regardless of what ownership claims about how broke they are.* If they wanted Punto and could get him at a significant paycut from $4M, they’d do it.

* Am I falling into the trap of thinking that now that Target Field is open, the Twins have virtually unlimited funds? I haven’t seen their revenue numbers, but they’ve stated that team payroll will remain pegged to 52% of revenue as it was when they played in the Metrodome. Maybe it really is true that $110M or so is the payroll limit, and they’ve gone above it. I don’t think I believe that, but it’s certainly possible.

That leaves the theories that involve the Twins no longer wanting Punto around.

So, which is it? Is Punto over the hill, and the Twins don’t think he’s good any more? Do they not think they need a solid utility man, and can get by with a lesser one? Or have they changed their idea of the quintessential Twin, and are moving in a different direction?

I don’t think it’s possible to know that. Bill Smith certainly isn’t going to come out and explain it for us.

Regardless of the reasons, though, if Nick Punto doesn’t return to the Twins it sure feels like the end of an era.

You know what was in vogue last week? Offseason blueprints! That’s why we’re finally getting around to one here at Hitting the Foul Pole, where you can always trust that we’ll wait until something has gone slightly stale before taking a bite.

Many of the blueprints I’ve glanced at — I haven’t read all of them, mind you — seem to assume that the Twins will be just as active this offseason as they were last winter. But last year, the Twins were reaping the rewards of entering the new stadium, and thus had a lot more money than usual to spend. Now that they’re at (or above) their payroll limit, I’d guess that they’ll be back to their normal behavior of looking to get adequate players on the cheap to replace the production of more expensive players.

Position Players

• C: Joe Mauer
• 1B: Justin Morneau
• 2B: Alexi Casilla
• 3B: Danny Valencia
• SS: JJ Hardy
• LF: Delmon Young
• CF: Denard Span
• RF: Michael Cuddyer
• DH: Jim Thome

I expect that the Twins will make an offer to Nick Punto, something along the lines of 2 years, $5M. I also expect, though, that someone else will find his particular skillset more valuable than that — he is more valuable than that, especially to a team in the Twins’ predicament, talent-wise. However, with the budget crunch, that money is better spent elsewhere. I think Punto’s days with the Twins are probably over, and I’ll have to make sure I write about that when it happens.

I also think it’d be a good idea to re-sign Jim Thome. The fans love him, the players love him; he seemed to have a good influence on the slower, stronger players on the team. He’s said he’d love to come back, and Bill Smith has said the Twins would love to have him back. They’ll find a way to make it work, probably in the $3-5M range.

JJ Hardy has been called a “non-tender candidate” by a lot of people — and it’s true that his production was disappointing in 2010 — but I just don’t see it. Even while he struggled, he was among the best shortstops in the American League. The only real gamble here is whether he’ll be able to stay healthy; he probably won’t, which means we’ll see plenty of Trevor Plouffe in 2011.

Casilla can slide in and replace most of Orlando Hudson’s production for 10% of the price — but, as is always the case with Casilla, just because he can doesn’t mean he will. Will we see the Casilla who posts a 95 OPS+ and makes dazzling plays, or the Casilla who posts a 45 OPS+ and botches routine plays? Nobody knows … and this could be Casilla’s last shot with the Twins. If he sucks this year, he could be gone.

I know a lot of people want to see Cuddyer gone. But his salary means that the Twins wouldn’t get anything in a trade for him unless they ate most (or all) of his salary, and his good-but-not-great talent level means that even then, they wouldn’t get much. Not to mention, by the way, that there’s nobody who can really slide in and replace him. This will be Cuddyer’s last season with the Twins, as Joe Benson and Aaron Hicks may move quickly through the system this year. But there’s no feasible way — or reason — to get Cuddyer off the roster for 2011. (That said, I hate the fact that the Twins had to decide on his 2011 option before the 2010 season. If they had to decide on his option now, they could easily decline it and sign him to a smaller salary, and he’d take it.)

Bench

• C: Jose Morales
• IF: Matt Tolbert
• OF: Jason Kubel
• OF: Jason Repko

I hate Drew Butera, and Morales seems like the ideal backup catcher. I know that Butera will get the call in Morales’ stead, but I don’t care for it. Not even a little bit.

Tolbert is like the poor man’s Punto. He’s worse at every defensive position, he’s even worse at the plate, and he hustles even more falsely. But he’s a utility infielder who can fill in at all three infield positions, and every team needs one of those.

Kubel will be able to spell Young, Cuddyer, and Thome, and will get a ton of playing time — probably more than Thome, actually. It’s probably not even fair to put him on the bench. He needs a bounce-back season, and I don’t think it’s crazy to hope that he finds a happy medium between the “one of the best hitters in the league” of 2009 and the “sucks” of 2010.

Repko can do for the outfield what Tolbert can do for the infield. He can get hot and hit a little bit, but he can also go ice cold. But as a right handed batter who can pinch hit for one of the lefties in the lineup, or pinch run for one of the lumbering dinosaurs, or come in as a defensive replacement for anyone in the outfield, he’s got value. And a spot on the roster.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ben Revere called up in the second half of the year; he’s not ready now, though.

Rotation

• Francisco Liriano
• Scott Baker
• Kevin Slowey
• Nick Blackburn
• Brian Duensing

This is probably the spot that most fans want to see the most change, but I don’t really see how it’s going to happen. The Twins will definitely offer Pavano arbitration; he’ll decline and take a multi-year deal elsewhere, because he’s the best free agent pitcher not named “Cliff Lee” and has now put together a track record of kicking ass for a contending team. So long and thanks for all the fish; and draft picks.

I was a big pusher for Liriano in 2010 — and after I made his Cy Young case, he decided to basically call it a season and suck in all the rest of his starts. So that was awesome. That said, he was excellent despite piss-poor luck. I’m guessing his luck will improve while his dominance slides a little bit, and his shallow numbers will look better in 2011 than they did in 2010.

Beyond Liriano, the rotation either looks fairly solid … or like a total mess. I think it depends on which angle you look at it. Or which side of the bed you woke up on, or the phase of the moon. Something. Baker and Blackburn aren’t going anywhere, as they’re under contract (and haven’t been good enough that some other team would be willing to trade for those contracts).

I think the Twins like Duensing, and they might as well keep riding him. He’s not as good as his numbers, but on the other hand he’s good enough to be an excellent fifth starter. (Which could get him a bunch of wins this season, making him an intriguing trade chip for next winter.)

There have been stories bouncing around that the Twins have soured on Kevin Slowey; something about not liking his attitude. I don’t understand that at all, since he seems like exactly the sort of pitcher the Twins like (tons of strikes, no walks, lots of line drives and home runs), and he sure doesn’t seem like an asshole — not like Garza and Lohse, anyway. So if the Twins are going to make a move in the rotation, I guess it’d be to move Slowey and replace him somehow, but I bet they don’t bother.

Bullpen

• Joe Nathan
• Matt Capps
• Jesse Crain
• Jose Mijares
• Anthony Slama
• Rob Delaney
• Jeff Manship

Nathan will be back! His days of dominance are probably behind him, and he’ll be a vastly overpaid figurehead; but you don’t have to be awesome to be a Closer. The unholy combination of Jon Rauch and Matt Capps combined to convert just as many saves at the same rate as Joe Nathan At His Best would have. So it’ll probably be nice to be able to hide Nathan in the 9th inning, where he can rack up easy saves like he did to earn that fat contract in the first place. It’ll be a fun ride, with plenty of white knuckles and broken bottles.

I think Capps is a non-tender candidate, much more than Hardy is, but the Twins aren’t even going to consider that. They gave up Wilson Ramos to get him, and part of their reasoning was that Capps was under team control for 2011. So they’ll offer him arbitration, he’ll make $6-8M, and he’ll demonstrate once again that he’s really not all that great. Having Capps in the 8th inning is another way to hide Nathan in the 9th — leads that Nathan could have tried to protect will be pissed away before he has a chance. Brace yourself for a lot of “I hate Matt Capps” tweeting next year.

Mijares is good and cheap; Manship can do the job of a long reliever, and will be capable of sliding into the rotation when someone inevitably sucks (I’m looking at you, Blackburn) or gets injured (Slowey!). Other long relief options include Alex Burnett, Glen Perkins, and the newly acquired Eric Hacker … all of whom make me want to go stand in the rain for a while.

The rest of the bullpen is tricky, though. The Twins have Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, Ron Mahay, and Brian Fuentes as pending free agents. Offering arbitration to any of them is dangerous, because they would probably make more money in arbitration than they would on the free agent market, especially those Type A free agents that would cost signing teams a draft pick.

You know what’s funny about the draft pick compensation? That the picks are all the same, regardless of the relative talents of the players being signed or how big the contracts are. Carl Crawford and Cliff Lee are Type A free agents, but no team would blink an eye when surrendering a first round draft pick to get them; but a guy like Juan Cruz or Orlando Hudson or Orlando Cabrera can see their market value completely disappear by getting that scarlet A stapled to their chest.

Here’s the thing: the surplus value of a draft pick in the second half of the first round is calculated to be $5.2M, by Victor Wang. When you’re talking about signing a long term contract worth over $100M, that extra $5M you’re giving up isn’t a big deal. But when you’re signing a guy for around $5M (because that’s what he’s worth), then it’s basically crazy that you’d have to give up a first round pick for the right to do so — it doubles what you have to pay, and gives a long term asset to a rival team.

This is made worse by the fact that the “Type A” system is totally broken: 12 of the 34 Type A free agents are relief pitchers.

The point is this: don’t expect the Twins to get a bunch of draft picks in return for their departing relief corps. Guerrier has been used a lot — I kind of expect his arm to fall off at any moment. Mahay sucks. Rauch sucks. If Fuentes gets an arbitration offer he’s guaranteed to take it, since he’ll make at least $9M from it.

The only interesting guy is Jesse Crain. He apparently believes he can get a look as a Closer somewhere; the Twins should offer him arbitration and tell him they fully support his search for a 9th inning job somewhere, and that if he doesn’t find anything he’s welcome to come back to the Twins on a 1-year or 2-year deal.

Conclusion

As you can see, I don’t expect this to be a very active offseason. Everyone on the roster according to this blueprint was on the roster in 2010. Even still, the payroll would be well over $100M.

Bear in mind, this won’t be a disaster for Twins fans, and it wouldn’t be a failure by the front office. The Twins shot for the moon in 2010, and played three bad games at the wrong time. They can return most of that team for another shot in 2011, before it’s time for another 2008/2009-style retooling.

Last winter was exciting, and gave Twins fans a taste of what the hot stove season is like when your team actually participates. Don’t get used to it, though — it’s not going to happen every year. So sit back and watch the other teams fight, and wait for Spring Training. It gets closer every day!

Late Monday afternoon, a tweet came fluttering to my attention, borne by the whispering aether that is the internet. It was brilliant in its simplicity, yet invited so much thought, I couldn’t let it pass by un-considered.

What would a batting order of Twins blogs look like? @TwinkieTown

Now, perhaps it wasn’t supposed to be some soft of profound question, cutting straight to the heart of the blogosphere. Perhaps its author was merely bored, waiting for the Twins game to start. Perhaps it doesn’t matter one way or the other, as it happens, because once inspiration strikes the damage is done. It’s much like lightning in that way.

Now, I personally didn’t agree with the idea of a batting order. The idea of fitting together a pitching staff suited my fancy much better — and since I was the one who was doing all the thinking about it, I figured I’d just go with it.

Take a walk with me, if you will, through the Twins blogosphere. And please do bear in mind that there are no right or wrong answers here — even more so than usual, that is — and there are no stats here. If you read all these blogs already, then you probably know even better than I do that this is all just so much nonsense. On the other hand, you might find a new blog to check out. And that would make the whole thing worthwhile.

Rotation

Ace: Aaron Gleeman

The veteran of the staff, and the most respected around the league — most teams don’t have an Ace like Gleeman. If effective writing is a fastball and statistical analysis is breaking balls, then Gleeman has pretty good stuff. And if wordcount says anything about how deep he can go into games, then he can give the bullpen a break pretty much every time out.

Second Starter: Seth Speaks

The second starter is Seth Stohs, who does excellent work with the Twins’ farm system, produces a regular podcast, and is consistently interesting and thoughtful. You could do worse in a #2 starter. From what I can tell, he’s also a go-to guy on Twitter when someone wants a question answered; he manages to combine a great understanding of the game with a significant following and, somehow, a lack of the arrogance that typically comes with people caring about what you think.

Third Starter: Nick’s Twins Blog

Nick Nelson is so good his blog was picked up by the ESPN SweetSpot network, but he still writes about the Twins, so he’s eligible to be on this team. Once again, consistent and thoughful: the Twins Blogosphere has a pretty good playoff rotation. He’s got the good fastball, he has good command of his breaking stuff (stats), and he posts regularly.

Fourth Starter: Twinkie Town

This is a very active community blog. They have a sizable team of writers, constantly refreshing their page with new content. Seriously: they post several new articles every day. A lot of managers like to have an innings eater on staff, and that’s what you’ll get at Twinkie Town; guaranteed innings. So if you’re feeling bored, feel free to go get sucked in.

Fifth Starter: Twins Geek

It’s probably unfair to call John Bonnes of Twins Geek the fifth starter; he knows his baseball and can write a fair bit too. His penchant for coming up with interesting takes without getting too bogged down in esoteric numbers is refreshing, and he’ll frequently whip out a good non-stats article to keep you on your toes. I originally had him anchoring the bullpen, but you can get more value out of a starter than you can out of a reliever. I think he’d appreciate that.

Bullpen

Closer: The WGOM

You don’t need a closer every day — though you’d like him to be available at any time — but when you do need him you want him to have a blazing fastball, a biting slider, and a certain presence on the mound. You want stats? You want analysis? You want funny stories? You want to bring in this team of writers, led by StickAndBallGuy, to finish off the game for you.

Setup man: Over the Baggy

Graphs. Charts. Numbers. Good ideas. When you’ve got a narrow lead late in the game, those are the kinds of pitches that will maintain that lead. The author, Parker Hageman, “takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player’s heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse.” What I mean is, he has good command of his breaking ball.

LOOGY: A Fan’s View

If you need to get a tough lefty, you don’t necessarily need the biggest fastball or the most advanced numbers — sometimes it’s best to come at him from an angle he wouldn’t expect. Howard Sinker writes for the Star Tribune, but he does it from the fan’s perspective — he’s not a beat writer. Sometimes a little off the beaten trail, but he’ll keep your spirits up when the team is getting you down.

Middle relief: k-bro’s baseball blog

k-bro may not bring the stats as consistently as many other bloggers do, but don’t take that as a criticism; if the entire blogosphere was all-stats-all-the-time, it’d be just as bad as the no-stats-ever Mainstream Old Guy Media that thinks blogs are just for stats in the first place. The point is, you don’t need to have a lot of numbers on your pages to write a good blog, and k-bro writes a good blog.

Long relief: Josh’s Thoughts

Your long reliever doesn’t get into a lot of games, but when he does come in you’re going to want him to give you some innings. And Josh Johnson — who has the sort of name that makes you think he’s got a future in this game — doesn’t disappoint when he takes the mound. He hasn’t posted much recently, but when he does it’s a lengthy, well-considered article in which he does an excellent job articulating his ideas. Like most long relievers, you hope that he can gain some consistency and earn a spot in the starting rotation some day.

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That was fun … and more difficult than I thought it would be. Figuring out who was a better baseball player than whom must have been quite the ordeal back in those dark days before Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs existed. And maybe I’m just getting ready to get old, but it seems to me that if there’s ever a site that actually measures baseball bloggers on objective metrics and ostensibly assigns a “value” to them, well, blogging will have gotten just a little more fun. A dark day, you might say.

Unless those stats tell me that I’m good, in which case I’m all for them.

The internets have been raging with debate the past couple of weeks, as people desperately try to find another topic that could drive a wedge between the mainstream/old-school media and the basement-dwelling/not-printed-on-real-paper blogosphere. This time, the narrative chosen is “CC Sabathia vs Felix Hernandez.”

The basic premise is that on the one hand, you’ve got a good pitcher having a good season for a great team and racking up Wins by the handful, and on the other you have a good pitcher having a better season for a horseshit team and tossing back peripheral stats — but not Wins — like they’re Pabst Blue Ribbon. It’s made for a good fight, with plenty of entertaining back-and-forth and name-calling. My Twitter timeline is filled with “anyone who thinks CC Sabathia deserves the Cy Young is a moron,” and my RSS feeds are filled with “anyone who doesn’t think CC Sabathia deserves the Cy Young is a moron.” So yeah, it’s fun. Joe Posnanski even weighed in, with an interesting start-by-start comparison of the two heavyweight contenders. He found that King Felix had the edge.

But my question is this: why has the field already been culled to two? If we as a collective blogosphere are going to throw our support behind a pitcher who deserves consideration for a Cy Young award despite a lackluster win-loss record, why is it Felix Hernandez?

There’s another pitcher having a tremendous season this year, and since this is a Twins blog you may have guessed that I’m going to say his name is Francisco Liriano. You’d be right. So, without further ado, I’m going to follow in Posnanski’s eminent footsteps and try to do a start-by-start comparison of King Felix and Franchise Liriano, and see which of them ought to be wearing the crown.

1st start

• Hernandez vs OAK: 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 6 BB, ND
• Liriano vs CHW: 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 5 BB, ND

Comment: Quality starts for both pitchers, Felix had 1 more K and 1 more BB. I’m giving this one to Felix because of a substantial advantage in RE24.

Advantage: Hernandez (1-0)

2nd start

• Hernandez vs TEX: 7 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 5 K, 2 BB, ND
• Liriano vs BOS: 7 IP, 0 ER, 8 K, 2 BB, W

Comment: Pretty clear victory for Liriano, with no runs and more strikeouts.

Advantage: Liriano (1-1)

3rd start

• Hernandez vs DET: 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K, 2 BB, W
• Liriano vs CLE: 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 2 BB, W

Comment: Another obvious victory for Liriano; more innings, 0 runs.

Advantage: Liriano (2-1)

4th start

• Hernandez vs BAL: 9 IP, 0 ER (1 R), 6 K, 0 BB, W
• Liriano vs DET: 8 IP, 0 ER, 10 K, 1 BB, W

Comment: Oh boy, this one was quite the duel! Felix has more innings but gave up an unearned run. You’ll notice that Felix’s ERA is helped considerably by all the unearned runs surrendered by his supposedly-excellent defense; Liriano does not get that advantage. Also, Liriano had a bunch more strikeouts. Liriano had the RE24 advantage and I’m using that to break ties. Feel free to score at home.

Advantage: Liriano (3-1)

5th start

• Hernandez vs KCR: 7 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 7 K, 3 BB, L
• Liriano vs CLE: 7 IP, 3 ER, 9 K, 3 BB, W

Comment: Another close one. Felix’s ERA gets the benefit of another unearned run, but both guys left the game after 7 innings with 3 runs on the board. Liriano has a 2 K advantage.

Advantage: Liriano (4-1)

6th start

• Hernandez vs TEX: 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K, 4 BB, L
• Liriano vs BAL: 6 IP, 5 ER, 3 K, 1 BB, L

Comment: Their good outings have been aligning, and their clunkers are aligning too. That’s kind of annoying. They both gave up 5 runs, but Liriano pitched deeper into the game. Felix has 2 more strikeouts, Liriano has 3 fewer walks. Again, Liriano has the RE24 advantage.

Advantage: Liriano (5-1)

7th start

• Hernandez vs LAA: 3.1 IP, 7 ER (8 R), 3 K, 4 BB, L
• Liriano vs NYY: 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 0 BB, L

Comment: A bad start for Hernandez, and a quality start for Liriano.

Advantage: Liriano (6-1)

8th start

• Hernandez vs BAL: 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 2 BB, ND
• Liriano vs BOS: 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K, 3 BB, L

Comment: Liriano got clobbered in this one.

Advantage: Hernandez (2-6)

9th start

• Hernandez vs OAK: 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 2 BB, ND
• Liriano vs NYY: 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 2 BB, ND

Comment: More innings, fewer runs, more strikeouts.

Advantage: Liriano (7-2)

10th start

• Hernandez vs SDP: 7 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 6 K, 1 BB, L
• Liriano vs SEA: 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 0 BB, W

Comment: This is a close one. Liriano has the K and BB advantage, and they’d have given up the same number of runs but for Hernandez’s secret unearned-run weapon. I don’t want to penalize him for that, but I also don’t think it’s reasonable to reward him for it. Felix has the RE24 advantage.

Advantage: Hernandez (3-7)

11th start

• Hernandez vs LAA: 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 3 BB, ND
• Liriano vs OAK: 7 IP, 1 ER, 10 K, 2 BB, ND

Comment: Good outings for both pitchers. Felix went deeper, Liriano had more strikeouts and fewer walks. Felix had a better RE24, Francisco had a better WPA. Tough call.

Advantage: Hernandez (4-7)

12th start

• Hernandez vs MIN: 8 IP, 1 ER, 9 K, 1 BB, W
• Liriano vs ATL: 8 IP, 1 ER, 11 K, 0 BB, W

Comment: Another strong outing for both of them. Same distance, same runs … Liriano had double-digit strikeouts, and I like that.

Advantage: Liriano (8-4)

13th start

• Hernandez vs TEX: 6 IP, 7 ER, 5 K, 3 BB, L
• Liriano vs COL: 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 3 BB, L

Comment: Felix turns in another bad performance.

Advantage: Liriano (9-4)

14th start

• Hernandez vs SDP: 8.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K, 1 BB, W
• Liriano vs MIL: 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 1 BB, L

Comment: Clear victory for Felix.

Advantage: Hernandez (5-9)

15th start

• Hernandez vs CIN: 9 IP, 1 ER, 9 K, 1 BB, W
• Liriano vs DET: 6 IP, 6 ER, 6 K, 2 BB, L

Comment: Liriano gets his doors blown off and Hernandez is lights out. Another easy one.

Advantage: Hernandez (6-9)

16th start

• Hernandez vs CHC: 9 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, 1 BB, ND
• Liriano vs TBR: 7 IP, 1 ER, 10 K, 1 BB, ND

Comment: Felix goes all the way, but Liriano gives up fewer runs and strikes out more batters. This seems to happen pretty frequently. Liriano has a narrow RE24 advantage.

Advantage: Liriano (10-6)

17th start

• Hernandez vs NYY: 9 IP, 0 ER, 11 K, 3 BB, W
• Liriano vs DET: 1.2 IP, 7 ER, 1 K, 2 BB, L

Comment: Bam. Liriano was pitching injured in this one; Hernandez, clearly, was not.

Advantage: Hernandez (7-10)

18th start

• Hernandez vs KCR: 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 2 BB, ND
• Liriano vs CHW: 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, 2 BB, W

Comment: Got more outs, gave up the same runs, struck out more batters, walked the same number. I think this one is clear.

Advantage: Liriano (11-7)

19th start

• Hernandez vs NYY: 9 IP, 1 ER, 9 K, 2 BB, W
• Liriano vs CLE: 7 IP, 0 ER, 8 K, 4 BB, W

Comment: More innings, gave up more runs. But this time, Hernandez also strikes out more batters and walks fewer. That 0 on there is nice, though, and Liriano ekes out another RE24 tie-breaker.

Advantage: Liriano (12-7)

20th start

• Hernandez vs LAA: 8 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 0 BB, L
• Liriano vs KCR: 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 0 BB, W

Comment: Another scoreless outing for Liriano, with twice as many strikeouts.

Advantage: Liriano (13-7)

21st start

• Hernandez vs CHW: 8 IP, 0 ER, 8 K, 0 BB, ND
• Liriano vs SEA: 7 IP, 0 ER, 11 K, 2 BB, W

Comment: Both pitchers were on in this one. Felix went deeper, but once again I like it that Liriano put up double-digit strikeouts. RE24, however, is going with Hernandez.

Advantage: Hernandez (8-13)

22nd start

• Hernandez vs CHW: 7 IP, 2 ER (4 R), 3 K, 3 BB, L
• Liriano vs CLE: 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K, 6 BB, ND

Comment: At first I thought this would be an easy one — 4.2 innings for Liriano is pretty rough. But they both gave up 4 runs, Liriano struck out twice as many guys … you know what? I don’t care. If you don’t complete 5 innings, you can’t win this game.

Advantage: Hernandez (9-13)

23rd start

• Hernandez vs MIN: 7 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 1 BB, L
• Liriano vs CHW: 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 2 BB, W

Comment: Felix gets 4 more outs, but surrenders 2 more runs. I don’t know which way to go on this one. RE24 gives a pretty clear decision in favor of Liriano.

Advantage: Liriano (14-9)

24th start

• Hernandez vs TEX: 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 1 BB, L
• Liriano vs CHW: 5 IP, 5 ER, 5 K, 4 BB, ND

Comment: At this point, I really like the easy decisions. As many runs as innings means you lose.

Advantage: Hernandez (10-14)

25th start

• Hernandez vs OAK: 8 IP, 0 ER, 13 K, 1 BB, W
• Liriano vs TEX: 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 1 BB, W

Comment: More innings, 0 runs, double-digit strikeouts? Easy!

Advantage: Hernandez (11-14)

26th start

• Hernandez vs CLE: 6.2 IP, 0 ER (6 R), 7 K, 4 BB, L
• Liriano vs DET: 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 K, 1 BB, ND

Comment: Liriano went deeper, walked fewer, and if I credit Hernandez for “0 earned runs” I have to ignore the fact that you can’t give up 6 unearned runs without falling apart after your defense lets you down.

Advantage: Liriano (15-11)

27th start

• Hernandez vs NYY: 8 IP, 0 ER, 11 K, 3 BB, W
• Liriano vs KCR: 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 K, 0 BB, W

Comment: More innings, 0 runs, double-digit strikeouts? Easy!

Advantage: Hernandez (12-15)

28th start

• Hernandez vs BOS: 7.1 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 9 K, 1 BB, W

Comment: At this point, I find myself staring at a conundrum. Hernandez has made four more starts than Liriano has. He’s showing himself to be a workhorse, while Liriano has been asking for extra days of rest to keep his arm fresh for the playoffs — something Felix does not have to worry about. Still, this was a good start.

Advantage: Hernandez (13-15)

29th start

• Hernandez vs LAA: 7 IP, 0 ER, 8 K, 3 BB, ND

Comment: Another good start. It seems weird to keep playing this game when only one guy is on the field. But if I didn’t, Liriano would get the benefit of Hernandez pitching more often. That’s clearly unfair.

Advantage: Hernandez (14-15)

30th start

• Hernandez vs CLE: 8 IP, 0 ER, 9 K, 1 BB, W

Comment: King Felix dominates again and ties it up!

Advantage: Hernandez (15-15)

31st start

• Hernandez vs LAA: 6.1 IP, 4 ER (7 R), 5 K, 3 BB, L

Comment: So the question people are going to ask after this one is “Did Liriano win it, or did Hernandez lose?” On the other, probably more important, hand … I think I’ll have to go with the old adage: you can’t win if you don’t play.

Advantage: Nobody (15-15)

So, we played the start-by-start game and don’t seem to be any closer to a decision. When they’re both actually on the mound, Liriano seems to be the better pitcher — through 27 starts, Liriano had a pretty strong 15-12 lead. But Hernandez took advantage of starting more games to tie it up at 15-15. So maybe we should take a look at their overall stats?

Hernandez has a 2.39 ERA, 3.01 FIP, and 3.26 xFIP in 225.2 IP, posting 8.68 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, and 0.60 HR/9, with a 53.2 GB% and .286 BABIP. Those numbers have helped him accumulate an impressive 5.9 WAR.

Liriano has a 3.24 ERA, 2.37 FIP, and 3.04 xFIP in 172.1 IP, posting 9.50 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, 0.21 HR/9, with a 53.9 GB% and .341 BABIP. Those numbers have led to an even more impressive 6.1 WAR.*

Felix leads in ERA, IP, BB/9 (narrowly), and has a significantly lower BABIP.

Liriano leads in FIP, xFIP, K/9, HR/9, GB% (narrowly), and WAR.

* Note that WAR is a cumulative stat, not a rate stat; it takes into account the fact that Liriano has a significant disadvantage in innings pitched.

This just tells us once again that Liriano’s candle burns brighter but not as long. While they’re both on the mound, Liriano is the better pitcher. Since Hernandez is able to last longer, he’s able to nearly close the gap in value.

I don’t know how to calculate what a 55-point gap in BABIP does to their numbers, though. Over this many innings, that’s a lot of extra baserunners for Liriano that only got there because Liriano’s defense doesn’t convert outs behind him as well as Hernandez’s does. If Liriano didn’t have to face all those extra batters, would he have gone deeper into games and accumulated more innings? Or, conversely, would he have had fewer opportunities to strike out the next batter? And if the Mariners defense had allowed baserunners without committing so many “errors,” then all those unearned runs would have actually counted against Hernandez’s ERA and you may not be quite as impressed.* I don’t know, but I don’t think you can just ignore that BABIP.

* If Hernandez’s 17 unearned runs actually counted against his ERA, it would be 3.07 rather than 2.39 … and we might not even be having this conversation.

At the end of the day, though, I think this clearly demonstrates that the ongoing debate about the AL Cy Young award is misguided — it shouldn’t be “CC vs Felix,” it should be “Felix vs Liriano.” And I’m surprised that the entire statistical community has jumped onto the King Felix Bandwagon. Dave Cameron takes a jab at said community:

I would be tempted to chalk this up to the power of the narrative, where people were voting for Sabathia because the media has kept him at the forefront of the discussion, but we see this same rejection of DIPS theory in the vote totals for Hernandez, Liriano, and Lee. Even though you’re spending your Friday afternoon reading FanGraphs, most of you guys still seem to vote along the lines of innings and ERA. To me, that’s interesting.

I don’t want to guess at the motivations of the mob — whenever I try that, I’m always way off. Still, I wonder if the issue is that people saw a good pitcher with an 11-11 record and decided it was more important to reject Wins as a meaningful stat than to actually use more meaningful stats to embrace excellence.

But if you ask me, I think King Felix’s crown belongs to Francisco Liriano.

Sorry for the complete lack of postings lately, both of us have been very busy.  I just got back from Vegas and was on the opposite side of the same hotel Paris Hilton was in when she got arrested for coke possession.  So that’s cool. 

All season long it seems Austin Jackson and Neftali Feliz have been getting all the AL ROY hype, well they better make room for Danny Valencia.

Valencia was called up a few months back when Cuddyer had to go on the bereavement list, and it was expected that he wouldn’t stick around.  He has been touted as the Twins thirdbaseman of the future, despite being not much more than a decent hitter, and average fielder in the minors.  Ever since Gardy installed him as the regular 3B in the middle of the summer he has been white hot.  After his walk-off single last night he is hitting a nifty 332/375/447 in 224 plate appearances.  He has played a very solid third base, showing good range, and a great arm.  His UZR/150 is 24.7, but that is next to meaningless due to the ever present “small sample size”.

Detroit Tigers CF Austin Jackson is one of the other leading ROY candidates.  Along with playing spectacular defense in center, as witnessed last night, he is hitting 305/357/408 in 547 plate appearances.  While not as good as Valencia, he has had over twice as many PAs.  That might be enough to sway voters.  While Valencia plays solid, steady defense, Jackson provides more highlight reel catches. 

Feliz has been excellent closing games for the first place Rangers this year. He has notched 34 saves. His ERA isn’t sparkling, 3.26, and it is right in line with his FIP (3.28).  His strikeout rate is good, 9.16, but I like to see closers hit the double digits there.  His WHIP is under 1.00, which is always good. 

If you held a gun to my head, I’d probably pick Jackson since he has been performing at a high level since day one.  Although the Twins and Rangers being in playoff contention in September certainly gives Valencia and Feliz bonus points.  I don’t think the Twins would be in first place without Valencia’s contributions.

What does everyone else think?

So, the Twins are in first place.  Thanks to Brian Roberts.  So we enter the first of two August series with the White Sox tied for first place.  We have to remember, it is still only August.  Even if we lose two of three, we’re only a game out.  If we sweep we are only three games up, etc.  Obviously every game from here on out is very important, but I fully expect my twitter feed to blow up with “the sky is falling” comments every time a reliever puts a man on base. Trust me, this will be annoying, and I will probably be a little guilty of it too.  So everyone, relax. 

I’m not too thrilled about Perkins starting on Wednesday, but I have no problem with Pavano or Liriano asking for an extra day. They have both been studs, and deserve a little extra rest in order to continue being studs down the stretch.  The White Sox are throwing Garcia/Danks/Floyd, which is pretty good for them.  We counter with Baker/Perkins/Liriano.  Outside of Liriano I have no idea what to expect.  As we all know Baker is a Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde pitcher, and Perkins has been hit or miss in AAA.  Thankfully the Sox lineup isn’t much better than your average AAA team.

We will be repeating these exact same steps next week, with an off day monday followed by a three game series against Chicago.  So to quote Hawk Harrellson, “sit back, relax and strap it down”.  

You know, I never understood what he meant by that.  Strap what down? Apparently he has a new catchphrase,  “don’t stop now, boys”. So those of you who get to/have to watch the White Sox broadcast look out for it, and tell me if it ever fits into the context of the game.  I can’t imagine it ever does.  

Also, Sean has put together the old FireGardy.com archives into a downloadble kindle product on amazon, so if you feel like shelling out $2.99 to read it on your Kindles, head over to amazon and download it.

After last night’s frustrating loss (aren’t they all) to those filthy Canadians, Buster Olney showed up on Baseball Tonight and said the Twins have offered Slowey and Ramos for Cliff Lee.  I for one think that is a good deal.  I like Aaron Hicks too much to trade him.  Slowey is a very fine pitcher, but bottom line he is very replaceable.  That Wimmers kid we drafted from tOSU looks like he can do exactly what Slowey has done over the years. 

Aside: I also want to take this time to say that Jack Zduriencik (notice how I used his full name. Why do GMs need nicknames?)  is highly overrated.  Yes, the Mariners improved greatly the minute he showed up, but they were still a .500 non-playoff team.  And it looks like they are going to finish well below that this year.  Good for him, he was able to draft good players, he has had high draft picks and pretty deep pockets. He better draft good players.  So can everyone stop sucking him off and treating him like some sort of deity? Thanks.

What do you guys think? Do you believe this rumor? Is it too much? Not enough?