Hitting the Foul Pole

If I said the Twins were sputtering out of the gate, my car would sue me for libel. As a quick example, here’s the home run leaderboard so far in the season:

• Troy Tulowitzki: 5
• Nelson Cruz: 5
• Howie Kendrick: 4
• Alex Rodriguez: 4
• Miguel Cabrera: 4
• Ryan Braun: 4
• Asdrubal Cabrera: 4
• Lance Berkman: 4
• Ian Kinsler: 4
• Mark Teixeira: 4
• Pat Burrell: 4
• Alfonso Soriano: 4
• Jorge Posada: 4
• Prince Fielder: 3
• Jose Bautista: 3
• Jonny Gomes: 3
• Logan Morrison: 3
• Paul Konerko: 3
• Ryan Howard: 3
• Russell Martin: 3
• Alexei Ramirez: 3
• Justin Upton: 3
• Jason Heyward: 3
• Chris Young: 3
• Rickie Weeks: 3
• Rod Barajas: 3
• Josh Willingham: 3
• Torii Hunter: 3
• Brian Roberts: 3
• Adrian Beltre: 3
• The Minnesota Twins: 3

Sorry about making that list so long. Don’t blame me, blame the Twins. They are currently the worst offensive team in the league, having amassed -0.5 WAR on offense thus far in the season. They are the second worst pitching team in the league, with 0.1 WAR. As a team, they’re hitting .236/.283/.506, for a batting line that would get a backup catcher sent down the minors.* Every day, the Twins’ fans debate on Twitter whether it’s time to panic or whether it’s just a small sample size.

* Except, of course, if you’re the Twins’ backup catcher. I’m beginning to suspect that Joe Mauer’s contract includes a secret clause that says the Twins can’t have an adequate backup for him, thus explaining Drew Butera’s continued existence. I call it the Joe Mauer Must Look Good Clause.

But on Thursday night, that was supposed to change. They took their league-worst offense and faced off against the second worst offense, the Rays (-0.3 offensive WAR). Carl Pavano was on the mound, with his personal caddy behind the plate, Drew “Make Mauer Look Good” Butera. And Pavano didn’t disappoint — last week he dominated the anemic A’s offense, giving up 1 run in 8 innings. This week, he dominated the Rays’ offense, giving up 0 runs in 8 innings. He’s doing what he can to silence those pesky complaints about his contract.

And to top it off, Pavano struck out 7 batters in his 8 innings, re-trading ground balls for strikeouts upon realizing that the Twins’ infield defense can’t field balls hit directly at them and can’t move at all. (Michael Cuddyer started at second base, again.) Unfortunately for Pavano, and the Twins, Pavano doesn’t know how to win. Eight scoreless innings is only a good performance if the bullpen can finish off the win.

Pavano left the game with a 2-0 lead — the Twins had finally broken through in the 6th inning, characteristically leaving the bases loaded — and Nathan took over the mound. You know that saying from football, that if you have two Quarterbacks, you really have zero? Well, the Twins are apparently trying to see if the same is true of Closers. With one out, Nathan induced Felipe Lopez to pop up to shallow right field, and the ball hung in the air for what seemed like minutes — and was enough time for Morneau and Hughes to get from the infield all the way out there to right field, just in time to convince Cuddyer (who had apparently been playing somewhere in the plaza beyond the fence in right-center after switching from second base) not to attempt to catch the ball. It dropped in for a double; apparently that was enough to rattle Nathan, who walked the next batter. After a coaching visit to the mound, Nathan did what all Twins pitchers do after receiving a visit to the mound: he got rocked for a game-tying double.

So Pavano’s effort was wasted, and Nathan had blown his first save of the year. For what it’s worth, it should be the first of many.

Not to be outdone, Matt Capps* took over the mound in the 10th inning with the lead newly replenished — by a potentially-game-winning single by Danny Valencia that made the score 3-2 — and did everything in his power to make sure he didn’t lose the race for most blown saves for the Twins this season. Just six pitches into his outing, he surrendered a walk-off home run to Johnny Damon, and the Twins got to hang their heads in shame once more.

* With all the whining about Mauer and Butera right now, is it cruel of me to point out that Wilson Ramos is currently hitting .450/.522/.550 right now? Yes, small sample size. Still, that OPS is double the Twins’ as a team. And by the way, I am never going to let Matt Capps live down the fact that he was traded for Wilson Ramos, in some sort of cosmic do-over of the AJ Pierzynski heist.

Entering Thursday night, the Twins hadn’t had many leads to protect, and neither Nathan nor Capps had blown a save. By the time the bartender of life cut off my MLB.tv feed, they’d each blown one. The bullpen is showing itself to be about as weak as everyone had feared it would be. The defense has somehow managed to be even weaker than everyone feared it would be. The starting rotation is currently having everything go wrong aside from injuries, which are surely right around the corner. And the offense, which was going to have to carry the load this season, well … remember the old saying that against a good offense you’d have to pitch around the first eight and pitch to the pitcher? Well, we’ve found the opposite of that. Against the Twins, the optimal strategy seems to be “pitch to everyone, while the fans cross their fingers and hope there isn’t a perfect game.”

No, it isn’t time to panic. It’s still early in the season, though the Twins seem to be doing what they can to skip over the summer doldrums right to the end-of-season slide, having picked up right where they left off. But it sure would be nice if someone would light a fire. Right now, it seems like they’re just going through the motions. And badly, at that.

The best thing that can be said about Thursday’s game — and possibly the worst thing that can be said about the season so far — is that, while the game ended in crushing defeat, at least it distinguished itself by being exciting. The same cannot be said for the rest of the Twins’ games so far, which have been mostly one-sided affairs filled with nothing but frustration, ineptitude, and boredom.

My question to you, the reader, is this: are you settling in for a long season to watch a surprisingly bad, boring team, or are you still hopeful* that they can turn it around and contend?

* And does the news that Mauer is on the DL change things?

Well, that was a nice little vacation.  We here at hitting the foul pole decided to take most of the winter off, rather than provide you with regular, but probably sub-par content.  We’re back starting today.  As you all know, the Twins open up the 2011 season in Canada when Pavano faces Ricky Romero at 6:07 (07?! WTF) at the RogersCentre (centre?! WTF) in Toronto.

I’ve been reading recaps from the handful of games that took place yesterday and for most of the winning teams, the phrase “according to plan” was in the recap somewhere.  That got me thinking, what should the Twins “plan” be to win the game today (and win the division).  Last year, Pavano was relied upon to pitch deep into the ballgame, so one would assume that getting him into the 7th is a major part of the plan. That goes for probably everyone on the staff, but having the Kevin Slowey insurance blanket will be nice if someone flames out.  Another thing that was supposed to be part of last year’s plan was Span getting on base, that didn’t happen too often in 2010.  I think we need to see Span dramatically raise his OBP from last year and get it back into his 2008-09 range.  I think he is capable of doing that, Over the Baggy did a nice write up looking for the root of his problem in 2010. I think everyone knows how the rest of the plan is suppose to work.  Get guys on base for Mauer-Morneau-Young (and maybe Cuddyer and Kubel) and they drive them in.  That part of the plan is pretty simple. Even with Span’s problems we scored plenty of runs last year.

The next step is keeping everyone healthy.  Losing Morneau last year didn’t hurt us nearly as much as I would have thought.  However, that doesn’t mean I want it to happen again.  Some of the more injury prone guys need to be given their fair share (or maybe more) days off early on, so that they can be 100% for the stretch run. It also helps that there are a lot of off days in April.

What else do the Twins need to do to be successful this season? I know I’m not breaking any ground with “get on base” and “stay healthy” but when it comes down to it, the formula for winning isn’t that complicated.  Welcome back to HTFP and we hope to have a great season.

With all this talk about the 2011 season, and the complaints about the offseason spending that makes me wonder if I was imagining the packed Target Field every day in 2010, I feel like things are getting a little too short-sighted and whiny.

Keith Law’s organizational rankings and top 100 prospect lists just came out this week, so let’s take a quick glance at the top guys in the Twins’ system and let a few dreams carry us closer to Spring Training.

Law gives the Twins the 7th-best system in the majors; frankly, that’s higher than I assumed they’d be ranked given what has seemed like a paucity of impact players at the upper and middle levels of the system. But that may have just been a multi-year blip, and the farm system seems to be re-filling.

A sneaky-good system, it’s not loaded with big names but boasts a few impact guys and a ton of depth. This is more than just the Twins’ usual assortment of strike-throwing fourth starters and speedy outfielders, a testament to good drafting and some major investments in the international arena, where they’ve been as aggressive as any club.

He puts five Twins prospects in his Top 100: Aaron Hicks, Miguel Angel Sano/Jean, Kyle Gibson, Ben Revere, and Oswaldo Arcia.

10: Aaron Hicks

A 21 year old switch-hitting outfielder, the Twins have been excited about him since they drafted him out of high school, but have been moving him along slowly.

Hicks took a step forward in 2010 by converting his tools into baseball performance. He’s a true five-tool player, with an 80 arm in the outfield, above-average speed, future plus power and excellent bat speed. He’s much smoother hitting right-handed, with better balance and weight transfer, and it showed this year in his platoon split, as he hit just .248/.383/.339 against right-handers even though he was repeating the level.

His plate discipline continues to improve, and there’s plenty of leverage in there for power when he fills out, but the inability to hit right-handed pitching is a major concern that will have to be addressed, perhaps by having him give up switch-hitting if it doesn’t improve. On tools alone, Hicks is a top-5 prospect in the game, and I still expect him to become a star, but there’s some risk here and I can understand why the Twins are taking it a little slow with him.

The worst thing the Twins could do with Hicks would be to rush him before he’s ready. At worst, he develops inescapable bad habits and is ruined for good — as Carlos Gomez was. At best, he successfully adapts at the major league level, and finally hits his stride in time to get expensive in arbitration and then leave as a free agent — as in the final hope for Delmon Young.

29: Miguel Angel Sano/Jean

The Twins signed him as a 16 year old out of the Dominican Republic — other teams were scared off by the fact that his age could not be verified and he’s a little bit too big and strong to realistically be that young.

Sano won’t turn 18 until May, but his hitting tools would make him a top-five pick if he were just coming out of an American high school, with consideration for the top overall spot. He’s a natural hitter, with very good balance and plus bat speed, and there will be power not too far down the road because he gets great leverage from his lower half.

He has started to fill out quickly and is big enough that there’s zero chance he remains at shortstop. And despite a 70 or better arm, there’s a rapidly declining chance he sticks at third base, because he easily could end up at 240 pounds or more by the time he’s in his mid-20s. He is a below-average runner but is agile enough that he’ll work out somewhere in the field, perhaps right field because of his arm strength, and his bat will profile anywhere he plays, with average and potentially big-time power.

It’s way too early to say what kind of a player Sano/Jean will turn out to be. He could get fat and become useless, like Dayan Viciedo did for the White Sox. He could get fat and become marginal, like Pablo Sandoval did for the Giants. Or he could stay in shape and develop his bat, and in a few years we could be talking about him as the next Jason Heyward. There’s a huge, exciting range of possibilities here.

But the best thing about Sano/Jean, in my mind, is that he seems to mark the start of a trend — one continued by the aggressive pursuit and signing of Nishioka — of targeting and acquiring top international talent. This is currently the best way to spend money, and the Twins are doing it.

32: Kyle Gibson

Gibson had a fracture in his forearm in college that hurt his draft status; he was supposed to be a top-10, maybe top-5, draft pick but slipped all the way to the Twins. The injury was supposedly not caused by pitching, didn’t indicate a problem with his delivery, and the doctors claimed he should fully recover. That appears to have happened, because Gibson has been dynamite on the mound and is close to major-league ready.

Gibson is not the exciting top-of-the-rotation type of arm that most pitchers this high on the list represent, but he is extremely high-probability and could pitch above the level of his stuff because of his command and feel. He will show three solid-average pitches most nights and pounds the strike zone with all three. His fastball tops out at 94 mph or so, but his slider flashes above average and he can get ground balls with both pitches, keeping the ball out of the air on 57 percent of balls he allowed in play in 2010.

Gibson is tall and still looks like he could pack some weight on his shoulders, perhaps adding a mile an hour or two to the fastball, and his arm action is easy and repeatable, which probably explains a lot of his above-average command and control. He is a midrotation starter with a No. 2 ceiling but is so close to major league-ready that he should get the call in 2011 and could have an effect down the stretch.

Another reason for Nick Blackburn to look over his shoulder? The worst thing about Gibson is that he’s going to make that Blackburn contract look foolish even sooner. Not Gibson’s fault.

71: Ben Revere

A surprise first-round pick — at the time, most teams had him going in the second or third round — Revere has both proven the Twins right to be interested in him and been somewhat disappointing as a prospect. I think he represents the epitome of the organization’s love of slap-hitting speedsters.

Revere is a major league-ready center fielder with a chance to hit for average and add value through baserunning, despite having two below-average tools.

Revere is a 70-80 runner who covers a ton of ground in center through his speed, and his reads have improved substantially over the three-plus years he’s been in the Twins’ organization. He still has a well below-average arm that will probably require middle infielders to head into short center for cutoff throws, but the added range Revere provides should compensate. At the plate, Revere’s swing is as short as it gets, slappy and flat, and the way he meets the ball out front means he won’t have power, but he has good hand-eye coordination and will make enough contact to have value as a hitter.

I don’t see Revere as a star, but that kind of defense makes him a valuable regular.

After seeing him “play,” I’m a little down on Revere. I disagree with Law about his defense — he takes routes to fly balls at least as bad as Gomez did, can barely make up for it with his speed, and can barely make the throw back to the infield. His upside seems to me like it’s a poor-man’s Juan Pierre. So if the Twins can find some team that’s into that, I’d love to see what they could get in a trade for Revere, who has the pedigree of a top prospect.

74: Oswaldo Arcia

A 19 year old outfielder, I hadn’t heard of this guy until early in the 2010 season when he was absolutely destroying every pitch he saw. Seriously, he batted .375/.424/.672 in 2010, with 21 doubles, 7 triples, and 14 homers in just 283 plate appearances. He’s been splitting his time between CF and RF, and hasn’t made an error in two years (for what that’s worth).

Talk about a guy coming out of nowhere. Arcia screwed up one of his knees in an on-field collision and missed a chunk of the 2009 season, but tore apart the Appalachian League this past year and has jumped onto the pro scouting radar.

Arcia has a very classic left-handed swing and nearly mimics it from the right side, although he did most of his damage (.398/.455/.760) hitting left-handed. The raw power is enormous, again better left-handed, where it’s to all fields. He’s a 55-60 runner who won the Twins over by improving his conditioning while rehabbing the knee, and he has a plus arm to let him stay in right field once he outgrows center.

The Twins have developed a lot of players in recent years, but not many with this kind of raw power and overall ceiling.

Obviously he’s a long way away, but if he does in 2011 what he did in 2010, he’ll be one of the top prospects in the game and, along with Aaron Hicks, will give the Twins a future outfield to drool over.

And that’s the end of our trip through the cream of the farm’s crop. I am a little surprised that Tsuyoshi Nishioka didn’t make the cut — I wonder if that’s because Law doesn’t consider him a prospect since he’s never played in the minor leagues or because he’s not nearly as young as the other guys, or if it’s because he is considered a prospect and Law simply doesn’t think he’s one of the 100 best.

I would think Nishioka would be ranked somewhere between Gibson and Revere if he were to be included in the list, which leaves the Twins in a pretty strong position — bear in mind, though, that I’m foolishly excited about Nishioka.

Sometimes it’s fun to eagerly await the future, rather than be bogged down by the crushing reality of the present. Who knows what the team will look like when Sano/Jean, Hicks, and Arcia ascend — but if a few things break right and their development continues as we hope it will, it could restock the Twins’ core of stars just in time.

And it’s worth pointing out that all of these guys are pretty new to the system — if the front office can continue to add potential stars to the minor leagues at the same rate they have been for the last couple of years, through drafting and (especially) international signings, then the Twins will continue to be mentioned as one of the models of how an organization should be run.

Since arriving in 2004, even more than his on-the-field production, Nick Punto’s main contribution to the team and its fans has been that he has represented the Minnesota Twins to the world.

When I say represented, I mean it in a good way, I think. Nick Punto has embodied the Twins’ Platonic ideal of what a position player should be; high-effort, high-hustle, defensive-minded, versatile, singles hitter who values a high batting average at the expense of walks and extra base hits. Nick Punto has also been a metaphor for the team’s success over the past several years; outmatched on paper by superior teams with higher payrolls, with virtues that seem to exist but can’t (yet?) be quantified, but somehow competitive year in and year out.

I’ve given Punto more than his fair share of grief over the years. My thinking had been along the lines of what a utility player like Punto is worth to a team — for a good team with a high payroll and many good players and the expectation of contending, a good utility guy is worth a lot more than he would be to a team with a low payroll and a smaller collection of good players. If Punto is the fifth-most important player on your team, then you have a bad team; if Punto is the tenth-most important player, then you have a good team.

And I always thought that the Twins could have spent Punto’s salary better in other places, when they had smaller payrolls and dollars were scarce. Now that the team has more revenue and a higher payroll, I naturally assumed that bringing back Punto was essentially a no-brainer. Not only could the team clearly afford it, but he has fans among his teammates and the coaching staff and the media and the fanbase. Joe Christensen points out that that assumption appears to be faulty:

Punto is still a free agent, but from all indications, the Twins won’t be bringing him back.

What?

There are a few options, as I see it, to explain what the Twins may be thinking.

• Nick Punto is over the hill, and/or his performance will drop below what they have come to expect from him
• The performance gap between Punto and Tolbert will be smaller than the salary gap, and they’re making a value play
• They simply can’t afford it
• They disagree with my premise that a utility player is more valuable to a high-payroll team and don’t think they need him any more
• They are signalling that they are adjusting their vision of the ideal ballplayer — throwing out the mold, if you will

The Twins would have you believe that the issue is money, and they cannot afford Punto’s services:

With a projected Opening Day payroll of $113 million, they insist they have reached their limit. Insiders say Carl Pavano’s contract actually pushed them over budget, requiring special approval from CEO Jim Pohlad.

On the other hand, Christensen asserts that “even if it meant taking a sizeable pay cut, Punto would be thrilled to return,” though he doesn’t provide a source. Maybe Punto told him as much directly, and maybe he didn’t. The sizeable paycut angle, I think, bashes a crowbar against the kneecaps of both the performance/salary gap theory and the overall can’t-afford-it theory, regardless of what ownership claims about how broke they are.* If they wanted Punto and could get him at a significant paycut from $4M, they’d do it.

* Am I falling into the trap of thinking that now that Target Field is open, the Twins have virtually unlimited funds? I haven’t seen their revenue numbers, but they’ve stated that team payroll will remain pegged to 52% of revenue as it was when they played in the Metrodome. Maybe it really is true that $110M or so is the payroll limit, and they’ve gone above it. I don’t think I believe that, but it’s certainly possible.

That leaves the theories that involve the Twins no longer wanting Punto around.

So, which is it? Is Punto over the hill, and the Twins don’t think he’s good any more? Do they not think they need a solid utility man, and can get by with a lesser one? Or have they changed their idea of the quintessential Twin, and are moving in a different direction?

I don’t think it’s possible to know that. Bill Smith certainly isn’t going to come out and explain it for us.

Regardless of the reasons, though, if Nick Punto doesn’t return to the Twins it sure feels like the end of an era.

There’s been a lot of talk about bullpens, and how to build them. The general consensus seems to be that signing relief pitchers to expensive multi-year contracts is a bad idea: Dave Cameron points out that the setup men who have signed 3+ year deals since 2006 have combined for +0.1 WAR, which is not what their teams wanted when they signed them.

And so, while the loss of Jesse Crain to the White Sox and Matt Guerrier to the Dodgers has gutted the Twins’ bullpen and generated much trepidation among fans, both of them got three year deals and it was probably wise for the Twins not to match their salary offers even if they could have afforded it.

But if you’re not acquiring relievers on the free agent market once they’ve demonstrated success at the major league level, where do they come from? I would think the cheapest, highest-value way to go is to generate them internally, and the Twins have certainly tried that, rolling out Jeff Manship, Alex Burnett, Pat Neshek, Anthony Slama, Rob Delaney, and other home-grown relievers. Of course, none of them looked very good in 2010, and the Twins may not want to trust them as the core of the bullpen in 2011.

The only other options, then, are grasping at castaways from other teams, guys that other teams have tried before and didn’t like what they saw — that’s how the Twins got Matt Guerrier, so it’s possible to find good pitchers in this pool. But it’s also where they got Randy Flores and myriad other nobodies; there’s just as much uncertainty here as there is in the home-grown group, perhaps even more.

Finally, you can make trades to bolster your relief corps. That seems to be the direction the Twins are going, as they reject the high price tags on free agent relievers.

Relievers the Twins have recently acquired:

• Chuck James, minor league deal. From the Braves. Had rotator cuff surgery in 2008.
• Paul Bargas, traded from the Rockies for Jose Morales.
• Brett Jacobson, traded from the Orioles for Hardy/Harris.
• Jim Hoey, traded from the Orioles for Hardy/Harris.
• Brian Fuentes, traded from the Angels for Loek Van Mil.
• Randy Flores, picked up off waivers.
• Matt Capps, traded from the Nationals for Wilson Ramos.
• Clay Condrey, minor league deal.
• Chris Province, traded from the Red Sox for Boof Bonser.
• Ron Mahay, traded from the Royals.
• Jon Rauch, traded from the Diamondbacks for Kevin Mulvey.

That’s 8 relievers acquired in trade, 3 castaways picked up off waivers or on a minor league contract, and 0 free agents.

What strikes me is the disparity in the cost of these relievers, on the trade market. Rauch is a serviceable arm, and Kevin Mulvey … isn’t much to give up. Chris Province may be nobody, but Boof Bonser had absolutely no value by the time the Twins let him go. Brian Fuentes is a good pitcher, certainly has value in the late innings, and Loek Van Mil’s shot at ever making it to the big leagues is a pretty tall order.

On the other cheek, though, are the guys who required legitimate players to acquire. Capps is overrated by his save totals and was only a half-season removed from a 5.80 ERA, and he netted top catching prospect Wilson Ramos. Paul Bargas is an interesting choice, but he’s only 21 years old and in Single-A; the Twins gave up a pretty good backup catcher in Jose Morales. Jacobson/Hoey are giant question marks: Jacobson is 23 years old and still down in Single-A, Hoey has put up big strikeout numbers in the minors that didn’t translate into the majors even before his arm exploded. And the Twins had to surrender above-average shortstop JJ Hardy in order to get them.

This analysis, however, has ignored the effect of money on trade valuations. The Twins took on Rauch’s salary from the Diamondbacks, so they didn’t have to give up much in terms of players. The same is true of Brian Fuentes, who was virtually free when it came to prospects because the Angels were looking to cut a couple of millions dollars off their books and the Twins were deafened by the sound of cash registers ringing in the first year of Target Field.

Meanwhile, the Twins were able to cut about $8M off their payroll by throwing Hardy & Harris to the winds, and that drastically reduced what they could expect in return. Still, Hardy is currently projected to be worth around $12M in 2011, so the Twins sent as much as $4M in surplus value to the Orioles — that value will come back only if either Hoey or Jacobson turns into a solid bullpen option at some point, which is possible but unlikely.

Capps was in the middle of a $3.5M contract when the Twins traded for him, and the Nationals sent $0.5M along as part of the deal. So he probably cost the Twins between $1.5M and $2M, and with the focus on all those saves and desperation sinking in as Rauch struggled, that probably seemed like it was far less than he was worth. The illusion of a huge amount of surplus value is probably what helped drive the prospect-cost up, but even at the time there was no conceivable way for Capps to produce enough value in half a season as to be worth losing a valuable prospect like Wilson Ramos.

When I started this, I thought I’d conclude that the cost of relievers in the trade market was rising rapidly, to match the inflated cost of relievers on the free agent market. That doesn’t seem to be the case, though. The Capps trade was a bad move, and while Hardy brought back an underwhelming haul that was because that was effectively a salary dump.* Beyond that, these trades have not been expensive in terms of players.

* In the end, I think that’s what bothers me most about the Hardy trade. In just a few short months, the Twins’ attitude transformed from “sure, we’ll take on Fuentes’ salary … did you know this money was printed on trees?” to “we can’t afford any free agents, we can’t afford to keep our own players, and we need to save money by dumping the guy we were all excited about last winter.” The payroll ballooned quickly, but in the scheme of things it didn’t take long for the Twins to return to the tepid, penny-pinching days of old. Trading for Hardy in the first place was representative of the expanding budget, and trading him away is representative of the wallet suddenly slamming shut.

With the departure of most of the bullpen this offseason, Bill Smith set his focus on rebuilding a relief corps. He’s made a series of small moves to inject talented arms into the mix, putting the team in position to hope that at least a few of them pan out; that’s really all you can do with relievers anyway, and Smith has wisely decided that it’s better to give guaranteed dollars to players who can give you more predictable performance.

You know what was in vogue last week? Offseason blueprints! That’s why we’re finally getting around to one here at Hitting the Foul Pole, where you can always trust that we’ll wait until something has gone slightly stale before taking a bite.

Many of the blueprints I’ve glanced at — I haven’t read all of them, mind you — seem to assume that the Twins will be just as active this offseason as they were last winter. But last year, the Twins were reaping the rewards of entering the new stadium, and thus had a lot more money than usual to spend. Now that they’re at (or above) their payroll limit, I’d guess that they’ll be back to their normal behavior of looking to get adequate players on the cheap to replace the production of more expensive players.

Position Players

• C: Joe Mauer
• 1B: Justin Morneau
• 2B: Alexi Casilla
• 3B: Danny Valencia
• SS: JJ Hardy
• LF: Delmon Young
• CF: Denard Span
• RF: Michael Cuddyer
• DH: Jim Thome

I expect that the Twins will make an offer to Nick Punto, something along the lines of 2 years, $5M. I also expect, though, that someone else will find his particular skillset more valuable than that — he is more valuable than that, especially to a team in the Twins’ predicament, talent-wise. However, with the budget crunch, that money is better spent elsewhere. I think Punto’s days with the Twins are probably over, and I’ll have to make sure I write about that when it happens.

I also think it’d be a good idea to re-sign Jim Thome. The fans love him, the players love him; he seemed to have a good influence on the slower, stronger players on the team. He’s said he’d love to come back, and Bill Smith has said the Twins would love to have him back. They’ll find a way to make it work, probably in the $3-5M range.

JJ Hardy has been called a “non-tender candidate” by a lot of people — and it’s true that his production was disappointing in 2010 — but I just don’t see it. Even while he struggled, he was among the best shortstops in the American League. The only real gamble here is whether he’ll be able to stay healthy; he probably won’t, which means we’ll see plenty of Trevor Plouffe in 2011.

Casilla can slide in and replace most of Orlando Hudson’s production for 10% of the price — but, as is always the case with Casilla, just because he can doesn’t mean he will. Will we see the Casilla who posts a 95 OPS+ and makes dazzling plays, or the Casilla who posts a 45 OPS+ and botches routine plays? Nobody knows … and this could be Casilla’s last shot with the Twins. If he sucks this year, he could be gone.

I know a lot of people want to see Cuddyer gone. But his salary means that the Twins wouldn’t get anything in a trade for him unless they ate most (or all) of his salary, and his good-but-not-great talent level means that even then, they wouldn’t get much. Not to mention, by the way, that there’s nobody who can really slide in and replace him. This will be Cuddyer’s last season with the Twins, as Joe Benson and Aaron Hicks may move quickly through the system this year. But there’s no feasible way — or reason — to get Cuddyer off the roster for 2011. (That said, I hate the fact that the Twins had to decide on his 2011 option before the 2010 season. If they had to decide on his option now, they could easily decline it and sign him to a smaller salary, and he’d take it.)

Bench

• C: Jose Morales
• IF: Matt Tolbert
• OF: Jason Kubel
• OF: Jason Repko

I hate Drew Butera, and Morales seems like the ideal backup catcher. I know that Butera will get the call in Morales’ stead, but I don’t care for it. Not even a little bit.

Tolbert is like the poor man’s Punto. He’s worse at every defensive position, he’s even worse at the plate, and he hustles even more falsely. But he’s a utility infielder who can fill in at all three infield positions, and every team needs one of those.

Kubel will be able to spell Young, Cuddyer, and Thome, and will get a ton of playing time — probably more than Thome, actually. It’s probably not even fair to put him on the bench. He needs a bounce-back season, and I don’t think it’s crazy to hope that he finds a happy medium between the “one of the best hitters in the league” of 2009 and the “sucks” of 2010.

Repko can do for the outfield what Tolbert can do for the infield. He can get hot and hit a little bit, but he can also go ice cold. But as a right handed batter who can pinch hit for one of the lefties in the lineup, or pinch run for one of the lumbering dinosaurs, or come in as a defensive replacement for anyone in the outfield, he’s got value. And a spot on the roster.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ben Revere called up in the second half of the year; he’s not ready now, though.

Rotation

• Francisco Liriano
• Scott Baker
• Kevin Slowey
• Nick Blackburn
• Brian Duensing

This is probably the spot that most fans want to see the most change, but I don’t really see how it’s going to happen. The Twins will definitely offer Pavano arbitration; he’ll decline and take a multi-year deal elsewhere, because he’s the best free agent pitcher not named “Cliff Lee” and has now put together a track record of kicking ass for a contending team. So long and thanks for all the fish; and draft picks.

I was a big pusher for Liriano in 2010 — and after I made his Cy Young case, he decided to basically call it a season and suck in all the rest of his starts. So that was awesome. That said, he was excellent despite piss-poor luck. I’m guessing his luck will improve while his dominance slides a little bit, and his shallow numbers will look better in 2011 than they did in 2010.

Beyond Liriano, the rotation either looks fairly solid … or like a total mess. I think it depends on which angle you look at it. Or which side of the bed you woke up on, or the phase of the moon. Something. Baker and Blackburn aren’t going anywhere, as they’re under contract (and haven’t been good enough that some other team would be willing to trade for those contracts).

I think the Twins like Duensing, and they might as well keep riding him. He’s not as good as his numbers, but on the other hand he’s good enough to be an excellent fifth starter. (Which could get him a bunch of wins this season, making him an intriguing trade chip for next winter.)

There have been stories bouncing around that the Twins have soured on Kevin Slowey; something about not liking his attitude. I don’t understand that at all, since he seems like exactly the sort of pitcher the Twins like (tons of strikes, no walks, lots of line drives and home runs), and he sure doesn’t seem like an asshole — not like Garza and Lohse, anyway. So if the Twins are going to make a move in the rotation, I guess it’d be to move Slowey and replace him somehow, but I bet they don’t bother.

Bullpen

• Joe Nathan
• Matt Capps
• Jesse Crain
• Jose Mijares
• Anthony Slama
• Rob Delaney
• Jeff Manship

Nathan will be back! His days of dominance are probably behind him, and he’ll be a vastly overpaid figurehead; but you don’t have to be awesome to be a Closer. The unholy combination of Jon Rauch and Matt Capps combined to convert just as many saves at the same rate as Joe Nathan At His Best would have. So it’ll probably be nice to be able to hide Nathan in the 9th inning, where he can rack up easy saves like he did to earn that fat contract in the first place. It’ll be a fun ride, with plenty of white knuckles and broken bottles.

I think Capps is a non-tender candidate, much more than Hardy is, but the Twins aren’t even going to consider that. They gave up Wilson Ramos to get him, and part of their reasoning was that Capps was under team control for 2011. So they’ll offer him arbitration, he’ll make $6-8M, and he’ll demonstrate once again that he’s really not all that great. Having Capps in the 8th inning is another way to hide Nathan in the 9th — leads that Nathan could have tried to protect will be pissed away before he has a chance. Brace yourself for a lot of “I hate Matt Capps” tweeting next year.

Mijares is good and cheap; Manship can do the job of a long reliever, and will be capable of sliding into the rotation when someone inevitably sucks (I’m looking at you, Blackburn) or gets injured (Slowey!). Other long relief options include Alex Burnett, Glen Perkins, and the newly acquired Eric Hacker … all of whom make me want to go stand in the rain for a while.

The rest of the bullpen is tricky, though. The Twins have Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, Ron Mahay, and Brian Fuentes as pending free agents. Offering arbitration to any of them is dangerous, because they would probably make more money in arbitration than they would on the free agent market, especially those Type A free agents that would cost signing teams a draft pick.

You know what’s funny about the draft pick compensation? That the picks are all the same, regardless of the relative talents of the players being signed or how big the contracts are. Carl Crawford and Cliff Lee are Type A free agents, but no team would blink an eye when surrendering a first round draft pick to get them; but a guy like Juan Cruz or Orlando Hudson or Orlando Cabrera can see their market value completely disappear by getting that scarlet A stapled to their chest.

Here’s the thing: the surplus value of a draft pick in the second half of the first round is calculated to be $5.2M, by Victor Wang. When you’re talking about signing a long term contract worth over $100M, that extra $5M you’re giving up isn’t a big deal. But when you’re signing a guy for around $5M (because that’s what he’s worth), then it’s basically crazy that you’d have to give up a first round pick for the right to do so — it doubles what you have to pay, and gives a long term asset to a rival team.

This is made worse by the fact that the “Type A” system is totally broken: 12 of the 34 Type A free agents are relief pitchers.

The point is this: don’t expect the Twins to get a bunch of draft picks in return for their departing relief corps. Guerrier has been used a lot — I kind of expect his arm to fall off at any moment. Mahay sucks. Rauch sucks. If Fuentes gets an arbitration offer he’s guaranteed to take it, since he’ll make at least $9M from it.

The only interesting guy is Jesse Crain. He apparently believes he can get a look as a Closer somewhere; the Twins should offer him arbitration and tell him they fully support his search for a 9th inning job somewhere, and that if he doesn’t find anything he’s welcome to come back to the Twins on a 1-year or 2-year deal.

Conclusion

As you can see, I don’t expect this to be a very active offseason. Everyone on the roster according to this blueprint was on the roster in 2010. Even still, the payroll would be well over $100M.

Bear in mind, this won’t be a disaster for Twins fans, and it wouldn’t be a failure by the front office. The Twins shot for the moon in 2010, and played three bad games at the wrong time. They can return most of that team for another shot in 2011, before it’s time for another 2008/2009-style retooling.

Last winter was exciting, and gave Twins fans a taste of what the hot stove season is like when your team actually participates. Don’t get used to it, though — it’s not going to happen every year. So sit back and watch the other teams fight, and wait for Spring Training. It gets closer every day!

The world series has been over for a week or so, and I’m already going through baseball withdrawal.  I’ve been thinking about what the Twins should do this offseason, as there are many pending free agents and options to deal with. The team already picked up Kubel’s option, and declined Punto’s.  Both moves were pretty close to no-brainers.

The bullpen has the potential for big turnover. Rauch, Crain, Guerrier, Flores, Mahay, and Fuentes are all free agents. Crain should get pretty significant interest from other teams to be a closer.  I’m sure the Twins will attempt to keep Crain, Guerrier, and Rauch, but they rightfully won’t overpay.  I hope.

Orlando Hudson also seems to be a goner. Per his contract the Twins cannot offer him arbitration, so he will most likely get a multi year offer form someone.  One of my biggest concerns is who will play second base.  I was pretty impressed with Trevor Plouffe in his limited time with the club in 2010. So I hope he gets a good look in spring training.

Another big question mark is Thome. He will definitely garner a lot of interest around the AL, and I hope the Twins make a run at him.  However, with Morneau back, and the Kubel option already picked up, where would he get at bats?

Also, here is another thought to marinate: Trade Cuddyer and use the money to beef up the starting pitching.  I think we should make a serious run at Josh Johnson, or (more realistically)  Ricky Nolasco. Think about it.

Since this site used to be called FireGardy, everyone seems to think we are Gardy hating wackjobs.  Well I have news for you, we don’t hate Gardy (the wackjobs part is up for debate).  I personally think he is one of the top three to five  managers in the AL.  So, after finishing second an absurd five times, is Gardy finally ready to win?  I say yes.

The Twins started the season without their best pitcher, Joe Nathan.  He had been one of the best closers in baseball over the base several years, and Jon Rauch was hardly an adequate replacement.  Things started off great for the Twins, they were one of the top teams in baseball in April and May.  Then mid-June rolled around and Nick Blackburn’s deal with the devil expired.  Injuries plagued Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey. The devil came back and rescinded whatever deal he had with Rauch. Then the biggest blow of them all, Morneau took a knee to the face on July 7th and has been out ever since.  Gardy didn’t blink, though.  He and Bill Smith put on their thinking caps and banished Blackburn and his 6.66 ERA (literally, that is what it was at the time.  Look it up) to Rochester and inserted Brian Duensing into the rotation.  He performed way better than expected, and looks to be one of the Twins top three starters for a potential division series.

 I for one have been shocked that he hasn’t pulled Valnecia to give Punto the starting 3B job.  Is this a sign of Gardy growing as a manager? Probably.  Everyone says the Twins do the “little things right”.  Well news flash, they don’t.  But they are still in first place because Gardy and his staff have been able to guide them through all of these rough patches, and he doesn’t let his players get down when they make an error or baserunning mistake.  That is very important.

We all often question Gardy’s use of his pitchers.  Or his lineup construction on getaway days.  This year, though, Gardy has been a steady hand at the wheel of a ship that has sailed through some very rough seas. To say he isn’t manager of the year material is pretty foolish.  So count me among the converted.  I now consider Ron Gardenhire a “good” manager.  Who else is with me?

Lately Bill Smith has been making solid moves to bolster the Twins’ chances at a playoff run this year, making it difficult for reasonable fans to criticize him without celestial bodies aligning to bring about an unforeseen situation that would require far more bullpen arms than even Wild Bill would be able to acquire.

Well, there must have been a syzygy of some sort last night, because last night’s 13 inning half-marathon showed just how frayed are the seams of the Twins’ bullpen. Coming into the game, Matt Capps and Brian Fuentes were known to be unavailable — Capps had just pitched two consecutive days, and Fuentes has a bad back for some reason.

So let’s take a look at what happened, shall we?

• Scott Baker pitched just two innings before leaving with elbow tendinitis — his return is unknown.
• Manship pitched well, leaving with a 3 run lead.
• Rauch pitched well too, leaving with a 4 run lead through 7 innings.
• Flores came in, despite the fact that he’d pitched in two consecutive games — but he’s not a Closer, so his arm doesn’t need to be protected. He got one out and gave up one hit, and his night was done after 7 pitches.
• Guerrier came in,* despite the fact that he’d pitched in two consecutive games — but he’s not a Closer, so his arm doesn’t need to be protected. He’s also been struggling through one of his patented dead-arm periods (which he got because he’s been pitching way too often). He got lit up, and by the time he left, the lead was gone.
• Crain came in, despite the fact that he’d pitched in two consecutive games — but he’s not a Closer, so his arm doesn’t need to be protected. He’s pitched well lately, but if there’s one thing Gardy loves doing to a guy who’s pitching well, it’s ride him until his arm falls off. So enjoy that, Crain. Oh, and Crain gave up a home run, and the last Twins lead of the night was gone.
• Having exhausted all the available options in the bullpen, the Twins went with the only strategy that made sense. Continuing to preserve a veteran Closer at the expense of young starters! Duensing came in despite having pitched on Tuesday. One day’s rest, baby! That’s never turned into a long term problem for a team in the past!
• Then they needed another pitcher, so finally they brought in — no, wait, never mind. They didn’t go to Capps. Instead, they went with Friday night’s starter, Nick Blackburn, who mercifully lost the game.

* Scott Ullger was managing at for the late innings, because Gardy had been ejected earlier in the game by Joe West, who continues to be very adamant that nobody can question any of his myriad terrible calls. I’m guessing Ullger was thinking, “What would Gardy do in this situation? I know! Put in Guerrier!” It worked about as well as you’d have guessed.

So the Twins managed to keep Fuentes and Capps out of the game, preserving the health of their pair of mercenary Closers at the expense of everyone else on the pitching staff, who have also been dramatically overworked in recent days. And if you noticed a pattern up there, I wouldn’t call you crazy. It seems like every pitcher in the bullpen has been used in every game — Gardy must have heard about this newfound vaunted bullpen depth, and forgot that it doesn’t really matter whether you have 3 guys or 8 guys if they’re all exhausted all the time. But it didn’t have to be this way, Smithers; no, it didn’t have to be this way at all.

Apparently, Gardy had been “begging” Bill Smith for bullpen help, made possible by the September 1 roster expansion. I don’t know exactly why Smith was reticent to do it, but here are two possibilities:

Possibility The First: Gardy said he’d been trying to get ahold of him for the last two days. So maybe Smith is simply incommunicado. If true, that’s pretty bad.

Possibility The Second: Bill Smith is waiting until the Rochester Red Wings season is over before taking away their most talented relievers. (I saw this a few days ago, but can’t find the link to it right now. Damn internet.) If this is true, and Smith values AAA wins as much as he values MLB-pennant-race wins, that’s really bad.

So basically, there wasn’t any excuse not to have more relievers in the bullpen. At least Slama and Burnett, maybe Perkins and Neshek and Swarzak. There are warm bodies waiting in AAA, and they could have been out in the bullpen last night if Bill Smith had called for them.

And, because Blackburn was wasted in relief the night before his scheduled start, the Twins needed to find another starter for Friday night. Who should they go with? Pavano? No, they won’t move him up a day. Swarzak? Too bad, he started on Wednesday. Perkins? Too bad, he pitched two innings in relief on Thursday.

Say hello to your Friday night starter: Matt Fox.

Who the hell is that?, I hear you asking. Well, good question. The Twins drafted him in the 1st round back in 2004, and here are his AAA numbers this year: 123 IP, 3.95 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 9.1 H/9, 1.2 HR/9. For what it’s worth, every single one of those peripherals has trended in the wrong direction at each level throughout the minors. His stuff just doesn’t play at the upper levels.

Put another way, Anthony Swarzak’s AAA numbers look like this: 231.1 IP, 4.28 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 10.0 H/9, 0.8 HR/9. So Fox has performed better than Swarzak, but Swarzak’s just 24 and still a prospect — Fox is 27 and on the brink of not being a prospect any more.

Matt Fox is 27 years old, doesn’t have much in the way of stuff, doesn’t have a track record of good performance in the minors, and is pretty clearly not a prospect. Good for him for making it to the majors.

But it took a whole lot of random, disconnected events all converging at once to get him this chance. Even if he makes the most of it, he probably won’t stick around.

So hopefully he enjoys himself while he’s here.

And hopefully Bill Smith has learned that he should never let this happen again.

Random musings from last night’s victory:

The first walkoff hit in the entire history of storied Target Field was last night. A prodigious two run blast by White Sox castoff (and future hall of famer, good roster management Ozzie) sealed the victory for the Twins.

Minnesota had some shaky pitching between starter Scott Baker, Closer Matt Capps, and ex-Closer Jon Rauch. This was not encouraging. As awesome as it was to see Thome launch a 450 foot blast onto the plaza, and then get a shaving cream pie in the face from Rauch, a shaky starter and bullpen had be worried. Capps is still leaps and bounds better than Rauch, and I will feel confident if Gardy puts him in to close out a ballgame tonight.

Does anyone else have zero confidence in Baker right now? I know he was impressive against the Rays two starts ago, but his last two have been very bad. Is this someone you want starting in the playoffs? Essentially throwing a reliever out there who is a crapshoot? I do not. Granted we have to GET to the playoffs first, and that is no guarantee. We have seven games left against Texas, including four in Arlington. Those certainly won’t be a cakewalk. We have three left in Chicago, out side of those ten games nothing on the schedule really has me shaking in my boots. If I were to wear boots.

I hate to me Mr. Negative after such an awesome win, but I think it is always important to remember where we were last year (6.5 out of first, in third place) and keep in mind that a team can get white hot for five weeks and do anything. We can’t take our foot off the pedal here, kick them while they are down, etc.