Hitting the Foul Pole

Matt Capps joined the Twins on July 30, and pitched an inning for the save — early on he had some struggles, blowing two of his first three save opportunities and allowing plenty of baserunners. But he’s been solid, if unspectacular, assuming you’re the sort of person who wouldn’t make fun of him because his middle name is “Dicus.”

With the Twins, Capps has a 2.08 ERA in 26 IP, with 16 saves in 18 chances. He’s struck out 21, walked 8, and is holding batters to a .255/.314/.330 line which isn’t bad.

Meanwhile Jesse Crain has emerged as a legitimate relief ace; during the same time period (since July 30), Crain has pitched 24.1 IP in 27 games, with a 1.48 ERA, 24 K, 13 BB,* and is holding batters to a phenomenal .175/.290/.213 hitting line. Seriously, opponents are slugging .213 against him.

* This is higher than I thought it would be, and I’m guessing it comes from two things. One, he recently had a stretch of 7 straight games in which he walked a guy. Two, he’s been relying extremely heavily on his slider, and if the hitter lays off it there’s a chance it misses the strike zone and gets a walk. The thing is, it’s tough not to swing at that pitch.

Capps and Crain use their arsenals completely differently — Capps is all fastballs all the time, while Crain has focused much more heavily on his breaking balls this year.

Capps throws his 94 MPH fastball 81.5% of the time, his slider 14.7% of the time, and his change is only thrown 3.8% of the time. Capps uses his fastball this way for good reason; his fastball is +2.07 runs per hundred pitches, while his slider is -1.04 and his change-up is listed at a “you should never throw this” -8.48 (seriously, the only way it can get that bad is if batters clobber it every time you throw it).

Meanwhile, Crain only throws his 94 MPH fastball 42.3% of the time, his slider comes in 46.2% of the time, his curveball 10%, and he throws his change just 1.4% of the time. Crain’s fastball doesn’t seem to be of the same quality as Capps’, despite both averaging at least 94 MPH; it’s only been worth -0.94 runs per hundred, while his slider is +3.05, his curve is +4.21, and his change is +3.22. Maybe Crain’s offspeed stuff is simply nastier than Capps’, maybe he has better command of it, maybe his fastball sets up his other stuff extremely well.

More subjectively, Capps comes right at you and even though he’ll occasionally lose the battle and give up hits (especially when his BABIP sits at .319), his stuff is good enough to beat you. Crain keeps you more off balance, throwing mostly sliders and curveballs — and he’s talked about how his slider is really more like three different pitches, since he throws it at different speeds and with different breaks.

Considering all the numbers, I believe Crain is the better pitcher. But what does that say about their roles?

First, let’s assume that one of the roles is going to be Closer. I don’t think it necessarily should, but you know and I know that Gardy — like most managers — wants/needs to have a Closer sitting in the back of the bullpen. The ideal Closer is a guy like Mariano or Nathan, an elite pitcher who gets everybody out, blows them away, provides that nice warm feeling of confidence. That’s the guy you want, but it’s not always the guy you’ve got.

Since the Twins don’t have that guy, who should they put there? The easy fallback answer is “best pitcher,” but I’ve been railing for years that the best reliever shouldn’t necessarily be the Closer, and I still believe it. One guy is going to allow more hits and more baserunners — he’s the guy who should come in with the bases empty, so the only runners he has to deal with are his own. One guy allows fewer hits and fewer baserunners and strikes out more batters — he’s the guy you should feel more confident dealing with other people’s runners, in high-leverage situations that are not the 9th inning.

Rarely have I agreed with the way Gardy uses his bullpen; I’m the guy who thinks that a healthy Joe Nathan should be used the same way Crain is used now, and that the Fireman is a more valuable role than the Closer. But I hereby put the Seal Of Approval on the way Gardy’s set up Capps and Crain in the bullpen. It gives the Twins their best chance to win.

At this point it seems likely that the Twins brain trust was hoping the All Star break would cure all their perceived ills — namely, the consistently awful play by a significant portion of the roster. Last night’s pathetic showing against the White Sox was just one game, but it was a veritable showcase of the team’s ongoing problems. A starter that can’t get through three innings, a long reliever that can’t find the plate or go long, an offense that can only score when the opposing defense hands them extra outs, and a defense that lets any ball gets past them and plays with a level of urgency that suggests someone else should be out there instead. All of these were issues before the break, and every one of them reared its head in the first game after the break.

I doubt anyone will be able to convince Gardenhire and Bill Smith that actual changes to the roster are needed; in fact, I fear that they think “stay the course” is the way to go. But let’s assume you got their ear … what changes should the Twins make to spark the team and give them the best chance to win some ballgames?

Address the rotation

Liriano has been one of the best pitchers in the majors so far this year,* so the only thing he needs to change is the ridiculously bad support he’s gotten from the defense and bullpen; Pavano has performed as well as could have been hoped, and if he keeps it up the Twins will have gotten well more than their money’s worth by the end of the season. But that’s about all the good things you can say about the rotation this year.

* Yesterday, there was quite the Twitterfight among the Twins blogosphere about Liriano’s status as an “ace.” Nick Nelson led the “Liriano has the best FIP, xFIP, tERA, WAR in the American League and if he didn’t have an absurd .361 BABIP, that would be reflected in his ERA and WHIP and W/L record” side of the argument; Seth Stohs led the “Liriano’s ERA and WHIP don’t meet the requirements for being an Ace, therefore he’s only a Very Good Pitcher” side. Guess who I sided with.

Meanwhile, the rest of the rotation has been an unmitigated disaster for the last two months. Slowey may still be recovering from his wrist injury, or getting accustomed to his newly-diminished stuff; he can only do that with innings, but he’s not going to get those innings if he gets knocked out in the third inning of every start. Baker continues to be inconsistent, and no amount of calling him an Opening Day Starter or giving him a long term contract seems to make a dent in that problem. Blackburn has entered Phase Two of the Carlos Silva Career Path earlier than expected … he probably won’t see any success until he finds his way to the National League. So, what to do?

The number one priority should be to get Blackburn out of the rotation, post haste. As in, yesterday. It barely matters who replaces him, because whoever it is, there’s a good possibility they won’t be the worst pitcher in the league. Thus, upgrade. Fortunately, the Twins happen to have a viable replacement not only on the 40 man roster, but on the 25 man: Brian Duensing is in the bullpen, and he pitches more innings than Blackburn in most of Blackburn’s starts anyway. So put Duensing in the rotation, and the Twins then have “at least a chance” in 20% more of their games. Blackburn, though, would be virtually useless in the bullpen. If the Twins can send him down to the minors and try to completely change his approach on the mound (perhaps emphasizing “don’t throw meaty fastballs over the heart of the plate every single time” for starters), that’d likely be the best option.

Baker and Slowey, though, are tougher nuts to crack. Baker may still be a AAAA guy, but he’s got his contract and his stuff is good enough that he could blow away AAA hitting; we can’t send him down even if we wanted to. Slowey, even with his movement and command out of whack, is probably too good for AAA too; sending him down wouldn’t help his long term recovery. Meanwhile, the Twins don’t have anyone at AAA who could believably do a better job. Unless Bill Smith manages to swing a trade for Oswalt or Haren, Baker and Slowey are probably going to have to remain in the rotation; if we do acquire one of those aces, either Baker or Slowey should go to the bullpen. I think Baker’s stuff would play better in the bullpen, but Baker’s stuff also plays better in the rotation.

Shake up the bullpen

Rauch has performed well, as I expected, when he actually gets into the game. The problem is that he doesn’t get into the game enough; Gardy uses him as a standard Closer, which means he only enters the game in the ninth inning with a three run lead, and those haven’t been coming regularly. While that erases a big chunk of Rauch’s value (namely that he’s demonstrated an ability to throw a ton of quality innings in relief), I don’t think the solution is to use Rauch more often. I think the solution is to get him more save opportunities. And you do that by improving the bullpen in front of them, so it’s legitimately likely that they can protect a lead or keep the team in the game.

For all the insults hurled at Jesse Crain — and the delightfully harsh nickname “Crain Wreck” — he’s been lights out over his last 20-or-so appearances. Whatever he’s doing, he should keep doing it; and, importantly, Gardy should keep using him the same way. Which is to say: he shouldn’t come into a game with men on base, and he shouldn’t be used in day games.

After that, there have been nothing but problems. Guerrier has been really struggling lately, and I think that has a lot to do with overuse. Since Gardy doesn’t (and shouldn’t) trust anyone else in the bullpen, he leans on Guerrier pretty hard. He does this every year, and Guerrier struggles mightily until Gardy gives him a break and then slows down his usage. Guerrier will be fine once the rest of the pen is fixed.

Duensing has done well, but we already talked about him; he should be in the rotation for now.

So that leaves us with “the rest.” Mahay, Burnett, Mijares, and the open spot left by moving Duensing to the rotation and Blackburn to purgatory.

First, Burnett. He had a good run when to start the season, but it seems the league has figured out his smoke-and-mirrors act. Since June 17, he’s pitched in 11 games with a 10.24 ERA, and the Twins have lost all eleven games. He’s giving up a hitting line of .432/.500/.818, he’s given up as many homers as strikeouts, and even more walks. Last night, of course, was more of the same. He shouldn’t be in the majors right now; it’s time to send him down.

Mijares has given up only 5 runs all year, and since May 15 he’s thrown in 19 games with a 1.17 ERA, and the league is hitting .207/.273/.273 against him. I’d say the main problem is that he’s not seeing enough action, but that might be the reason he’s been successful. I still don’t trust him, but when success is so rare, I say don’t mess with it.

Meanwhile, Mahay has seen similar success. He was a disaster from May 15 to June 1, during which time he only appeared in 4 games, but gave up 9 runs. Since then, though, He’s appeared in 15 games with a 1.17 ERA, and the league is hitting .232/.259/.357 against him. There’s not really anything wrong with that, but I don’t think you need a pair of under-utilized LOOGYs in the bullpen, especially when the main problem with your most talented reliever is that you’re using him way too often. If there’s a better option in Rochester, I say Mahay becomes expendable; otherwise, might as well keep him and try to find more chances to use him.

Down at AAA Rochester, the Twins have a few interesting bullpen arms: Anthony Slama, Kyle Waldrop, Rob Delaney, and Pat Neshek.

I’ve been banging the Slama drum for some time now, but it’s worth pointing out that so far this year he’s pitched in 41 games, with a 1.43 ERA in 50.1 IP, racking up 61 K, 24 BB, and has given up just 24 hits. The organization’s knock against him is that he doesn’t have great “stuff” and he needs to work on his control, and a 4.3 BB/9 isn’t great. At the same time, a 10.9 K/9 is great, and a 4.3 H/9 is out of this world. I don’t care if his stuff doesn’t look great to scouts, it apparently looks great to hitters. And he doesn’t need to work on his control as long as his WHIP is under 1.00; nobody can hit him. There simply aren’t any excuses any more. Slama needs to be called up as soon as possible.

Kyle Waldrop is more in the Twins’ preferred mold, a low-K/no-BB guy. In 57.1 IP this year, he has a 2.04 ERA, with 6.1 K/9 (not that good) but a 1.9 BB/9 (awesome). He limits homers even better than Slama (0.3 HR/9 versus Slama’s 0.4 HR/9). Waldrop would be a good option for a middle relief role; certainly better than Burnett.

Delaney has long been Slama’s running mate at the back end of bullpens throughout the Twins’ minor league organization. He’s struggled some this year with hittability; despite an excellent 10.1 K/9 and reasonable 3.0 BB/9, he has a 5.80 ERA and 1.362 WHIP. He has a good arm and a history of high-K success, which is exactly what the Twins need right now, but he’s not performing well enough right now to justify a call-up.

Neshek is still recovering from an injury, and he doesn’t seem ready yet. In his last 10 appearances, he’s given up 9 ER in 13 IP; his 10/3 K/BB ratio isn’t bad, but the fact that he’s given up 15 hits over that span tells me his stuff isn’t moving like it should be. I continue to like Neshek, and I do think he’ll be ready to come back to the Twins at some point this season. Now, though, is not that time.

So my conclusion with the bullpen is to send Burnett down, and fill his and Blackburn’s spots on the roster with Slama and Waldrop. Those two should be able to handle any duty required of them in the 6th-8th innings, which will take a big load off Guerrier’s shoulders and allow him to perform at his normal level.

Without a healthy Nathan/Neshek combo at the end of games, the Twins aren’t going to have the best bullpen in the league. But that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try to improve the unit as much as they can, and these moves do just that.

Adjust the lineup

I don’t care that much about the lineup, but Delmon Young should not be batting at the bottom of the order. Yeah, it’s cute that Dick Bremer likes to call him “the second cleanup hitter,” since he’s batting 8th. But he’s also the second best hitter on the team … and the first best is going on the DL for a while. Delmon simply needs to be moved higher in the lineup.

Meanwhile, Mauer’s power has disappeared. He may be paid like a #3 hitter, but he hits (and supposedly walks) like a #2 hitter. Move Hudson to the bottom of the order — he has been awful at the plate ever since his fateful collision with Span, and having him in front of Punto allows Gardy to get his fix of smallball craziness — and have Mauer batting second, Delmon third, and for now, Thome fourth. Once Morneau returns, Thome can be pushed down to fifth or sixth, depending on how we’re feeling about Cuddyer.

Speaking of Cuddyer, he’s going to need some time off at some point. He’s really been struggling badly, and there’s no reason for him to continue to hit right in the middle of the order as if he’s a dangerous hitter. He can be, when he’s on. But he’s not on, and he’s showing no signs of getting on.

Plus, Span will need more time off as the summer progresses. I’d like to see Repko get some chances, primarily against left-handers. Oh … and when he does, he doesn’t have to bat leadoff.

Cut the dead weight

I’ve already been over the Blackburn/Burnett issues, so those don’t need to be rehashed. But there are a couple other people who shouldn’t ever be on the team, if the Twins have any illusions of trying to contend.

Number one on that list, the veritable Fuhrer of Futility, is Drew Butera. He didn’t hit at AA, he didn’t hit at AAA, and he hasn’t hit in the majors. He has a “reputation” as a good defensive catcher, but I have this feeling that he only has that reputation because he can’t hit at all. Has anyone else noticed that every time he’s behind the plate, the pitching staff gets torched? I mean, that’s been happening fairly regularly anyway, but at some point there’s just no reason to hope it’s a coincidence in order to protect the major-league-minimum paychecks of the worst player on the team. Butera’s got to go, and he should be replaced by Jose Morales, who is an ideal backup catcher for the Twins. He’s a switch hitter who can bat roughly .300, is athletic enough to run when needed, and is actually a good enough player that Mauer could get some rest sometimes. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but he’s been performing badly and complaining about some nagging injuries for a while now, all while he’s catching more innings than anyone else in the league. Something’s got to give.

Meanwhile, Wilson Ramos is the Twins’ catching prospect, and he should be catching every day. He’s not catching every day as long as Morales is sharing duties with him at AAA; Morales, though, is not a prospect. He’s older than Mauer, and is at the point of his career where his value to the Twins is not as part of a trade or in the hope that he develops into a good starter; his value is that he can be one of the best backup catchers in the league for the next 5-6 years for very little salary, and then leave as a 32 year old free agent in 2016 or so.

And while Matt Tolbert isn’t currently on the roster due to a DL stint, he’s worth bringing up right now because I’ve heard rumblings that the Twins want to replace Morneau with Tolbert as their ships pass each other on the causeway to the disabled list. If there’s a more disappointing replacement for Morneau than Tolbert, let me know. We’re talking about replacing the guy leading the AL in WAR with a below-replacement level bat boy. Instead of allowing Tolbert back onto the team, the Twins should use one of their other options at AAA. If they need an infielder, Luke Hughes remains their best option. If they’d like a first baseman, I wouldn’t mind seeing Brock Peterson get a shot.

Oh, and if they need space on the 40 man roster, which they will, just allow me to ask this one question: what team is going to take Matt Tolbert off waivers? The Springfield Isotopes? There’s no chance the Twins lose him on waivers. Which, in my mind, is unfortunate.

Will it even be enough?

Good question. I think it will. At the beginning of the season, the Twins were one of the top three teams in the league despite hitting poorly with men on base. Their division rivals, the Tigers and White Sox, are deeply flawed teams; I think it’s fair to say that the White Sox will not continue to win 26 out of every 31 games, and will fall back to Earth sooner or later. The Tigers have just as significant issues with their rotation as the Twins do, and are relying on Brennan Boesch to continue hitting twice as well in the majors as he did in the minors.

With such easy competition, the Twins shouldn’t need to burn down their house. They just need to throw out some of the unwelcome visitors and get some new blood. It’s still too early to call this a lost season; remember, this is the most talented Twins club in many years, probably since 1991. With just a few adjustments, they should be set to make a serious run.

They just have to make those adjustments.

Your move, Bill Smith.

Last night after the Twins suffered a barely-watchable sweep by the Red Sox, they sent Jeff Manship back down to AAA (that was a lengthy stint, wasn’t it?), and called up Trevor Plouffe for the first time. So just who is Trevor Plouffe?

Here’s what Aaron Gleeman had to say about him during the offseason, when he ranked Plouffe as the Twins’ 27th best prospect:

Trevor Plouffe had been promoted very aggressively since the Twins took him out of high school in the first round of the 2004 draft, but pushing him through the system despite the lack of any major offensive development now leaves him as a 24-year-old about to spend a third straight season at Rochester. He has six seasons under his belt, including 1,553 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A, yet has never posted even a .750 OPS at any level and owns a .256/.318/.385 career line.

His production has been remarkably consistent in its mediocrity, with zero real strides made in any key areas, and Plouffe’s lack of progress at the plate is especially damaging because he’s no sure thing to be an asset defensively at shortstop. His glove gets mixed reviews and while Plouffe played exclusively shortstop last year the Twins used him at third base extensively in 2008. If he’s not at least an average defensive shortstop in the majors it’s tough to see Plouffe having much value.

Plouffe is certainly still young enough for something to click offensively, but as the Twins saw with Luis Rivas and could be seeing with Delmon Young at some point actual production takes precedence over youth. He’s about to enter his seventh professional season and fourth straight year in the high minors, but aside from his age and status as a former first-round pick Plouffe has shown almost no reason for optimism. My guess is that by this time next year he’ll either be in the majors or off the 40-man roster.

Despite being a former first round pick, Plouffe pretty clearly wasn’t on the verge of breaking down the door to the major league roster when the season started. However, we’ve seen this story before: first round draft pick, doesn’t hit much all the way through the minors, then something clicks during a brief period at AAA and that success immediately translates to the majors. (I call it “The Denard Story,” but that’s just a working title.) Of course, we’ve also seen the “first round draft pick never makes anything of himself and washes out of the league eventually” story play out plenty of times. It’s not clear which track Plouffe is on.

Then JJ Hardy got injured, and it only took a couple of days for my Twitter feed to start exploding with excitement for Trevor Plouffe and myriad people calling for him to be called up. I’ve tried to go back and grab some of those tweets, but Twitter isn’t letting me look more than 5 days into the past. Stupid internet.

It’s worth pointing out that Matt Tolbert’s career minor league line is .277/.336/.400, considerably better than Plouffe’s. Why are people getting so excited about a guy who hit even worse than Tolbert in the minors? Sure, this year he hit .303/.367/.493 at AAA, but that’s only 38 games! Are we really getting excited about 38 games now?

Plouffe might have a future with the Twins, and he might not. Maybe Gleeman was right, and the Twins had decided that if Plouffe doesn’t show something that this is his final year in the organization; if that’s the case, it certainly makes sense that they’d see what he’s got, especially while he’s hot. He did, after all, get a hit off Strasburg.

He’s played the lion’s share of his time at SS, but has played at both 2B and 3B. If it starts looking like Plouffe’s bat is real, maybe he’ll replace Tolbert for the rest of this season, and maybe even Punto in 2011. I haven’t heard great reports about his defense at short, so maybe he won’t stick there; maybe he’ll replace Hudson in 2011. Maybe he’ll be gone.

Normally I’m excited to see the next product of the Twins’ talent pipeline. And for years, Plouffe was supposed to be “the shortstop of the future!” But from where I’m sitting, his star is shining quite a bit less brightly than it once did, and I don’t find myself all that thrilled. Maybe it’s because even with Plouffe’s callup, the roster still has Harris, Punto, Tolbert, and Casilla, who will presumably all get playing time ahead of Plouffe. So Trevor: I hope you like sitting on the bench for 3 games while the guy playing instead of you goes 0-4 every day until you get sent back down. Because I’m guessing that’s Gardy’s plan.

Then again, maybe this is just part of Plouffe’s story. Span was “the center fielder of the future!” for years, while he sucked at every level of the minors, and by the time he got to the top of the farm system he looked like a washout and I was calling him “Denard F’ing Span,” as if he had no chance to become a viable major leaguer. You never know.

So hopefully his .860 OPS isn’t a fluke and he gets some playing time and the Twins can reap some more fruit from the pipeline. But I wouldn’t get your hopes up.

Wilson Ramos is batting .778/.778/1.111.

I think this is basically what Indians fans and White Sox fans are talking about when they say they hate the Twins. I’ve been over it a few times, the frustration vented from these other fanbases when they see some key injuries to their own teams scuttle their hopes and dreams for the season … meanwhile, they see key injuries to the Twins and it doesn’t seem to have any effect.

When Joe Mauer was out last April, Jose Morales came up and posted a 1.000 OPS until Mauer could return; Mauer turned out to be even better than that once he came back, but the Twins didn’t miss him much in April.

When Justin Morneau went down last September, Cuddyer just moved from RF to 1B and gave his best Morneau impression, smashing the ball all over the field.

When Joe Nathan went down some people pretended to be really worried about how the Twins could ever win a game again. Turns out the internet was pretty much right about closers, and Rauch has 7 saves as Nathan’s stand-in.

Now Mauer has gone down again, and Wilson Ramos got the call and has 7 hits in his first 9 at bats. He’s batting .778/.778/1.111, and the Twins have won easily in both of his games.

I imagine it’s frustrating to watch your rival repeatedly lose its stars, but never miss them when they’re gone. It’s like when you’re watching a game, and when the other team is batting the ball seems to keep landing right on the foul line and you find yourself cursing your television, asking the universe why your team isn’t getting those breaks. Except in this case, the questions are more existential and even more futile.

So, is Ramos turning Mauer into a 21st-century Pipp? I seriously doubt it.

For one thing, Mauer’s new contract brings a lot of certainty to the situation. The Twins have him, they have to pay him, they can’t trade him, and he’s consistently been one of the best players in the league for the past few years. He’s like Wally Pipp, except if Pipp happened to be able to hit even better than Gehrig.

Secondly, the Twins have a lot of options regarding what to do with Ramos (whereas they really only have one option with Mauer: when he’s healthy, he plays). They can make him an uber-backup; they can make him a C/DH platoon with Mauer; they can try to move him to another position; they can send him to AAA to waste his talents while he gets ever more frustrated and eventually is taken by someone in the Rule 5 draft; they can hang onto him while his value is high and then dump him for a pittance once his value craters as he ages or struggles; they can trade him this summer for a rental; they can trade him next winter for whatever’s available.

A while back, the Twins never would have had these options. A little while less back, they would have chosen option four and just let him waste away in the minors until they’d completely thrown away one of their top prospects, then blamed the player for their own failure. But now? Now the Twins are a powerhouse economically, and one of their top prospects happens to be at a position where they have the reigning MVP signed for most of the decade.

For the first time in memory, the Twins are set to be buyers at the trade deadline and have perhaps the most attractive trading chip on the market. It doesn’t take a huge stretch of the imagination to see a Cliff Lee deal (or something like it) coming the Twins’ way this summer.

Normally, I’d be afraid of that. I don’t like short-sighted moves that value the present way more than the future (which is precisely what trading 6 years of Ramos for 2 months of Lee would be). But now? Bill Smith is on a roll, and the early returns on his last several moves are excellent. So I’m left excited by the possibility that the Twins could make a giant splash with a Ramos trade some time within the next year.

I don’t know what the Twins should do with Ramos. Maybe something will happen during the year that shows a weakness that needs to be bolstered, which would help answer the question.

For now, I’ll enjoy watching Ramos play. And for later, I find myself getting dangerously close to trusting that Bill Smith will make a good move — whatever the move happens to be. What to do with Ramos is the next big test for the Twins’ front office.

I won’t know what has been the less shocking announcement of the week: Ricky Martin coming out of the closet, or Punto being named starting third baseman.  Since the day Hudson was signed and locked up the second base job, leaving only third base open, I knew Punto would be starting there.  Gardy can’t have a starting lineup without Punto in it.  I think we all need to accept that, and realize that the rest of the lineup is so good, we can afford to have one black hole.  Last year we had several black holes and won the division!

Harris played really well this spring, so it is a shame that he has to lose the starting job.  Although, can we consider it a loss if the outcome was decided before the game started? Probably not.

As of April 1 the lineup that will take the field next monday in LA will probably look like this:

1. Span- CF
2. Hudson- 2B
3. Mauer- C
4. Morneau- 1B
5. Cuddyer- RF
6. Kubel- DH
7. Young- LF
8. Hardy- SS
9. Punto- 3B

Pitching: Scott Baker

I don’t think Gardy has announced if he will bat Young seventh and Hardy eight or vice versa, but the above is pretty damn close.

Will anyone be at Target Field on the 12th? I for one can’t wait.

The Twins announcedtoday that pitcher Gelnn Perkins, and catcher Wilson Ramos will start the season at AAA.  I don’t think anyone is surprised by the Perkins news, he has a bad attitude and an arm to match.  The hotter topic is Wilson Ramos. My twitter feed blew up yesterday with various people arguing for and against using Ramos as Mauer’s backup for a month.  I am personally in the camp that believes Ramos needs to play everyday, and he will not do that with the Twins.  Yes, Drew Butera does suck immensely, but it is the right move for a few weeks, a month at most.  Some are assuming that Ramos will be a huge asset as a right handed pinch hitter late in close games.  Can we really assume a player with exactly zero major league at bats can come in and hit off of elite, late inning AL relievers?  I don’t think we can. Thome crushes righties, and Harris hits lefites well enough to give us a suitable stable of pinch hitters for Gardy to pull from. 

Starting Ramos’ arbitration clock is only one of the reasons (and a secondary one at that) he should start the season in Rochester. If he comes up and struggles, who knows what that will do to his confidence.  He has had zero plate appearances above AA, so why rush him? If anyone argues that “Mauer only had limited at bats in AA before making the majors!”, I will punch you through the computer.  Mauer was brought up to be the starter, not a backup.  Plus,  Ramos isn’t the prospect Mauer was.    What does everyone think of this hotly contested roster move?  Gardy said it was a tough decision, and I’m sure it was.  It was the right one, though.

In other news, Pat Neshek has claimed a bullpen spot. That is good news as he has looked good this spring. I don’t think there is much argument here, so I won’t waste anymore time on it.

Joe Christensen continues to pound the “Liriano to the bullpen!” drum for some reason, and Gardy’s not having it. At the moment.

“Frankie’s a rotation guy; not going to be a bullpener,” manager Ron Gardenhire said. “I’m going to tell you that, right now. Then, in another week, I’ll tell you if he’s still a rotation guy.”

The Twins are taking this strategy because they’re exploring trades to replace closer Joe Nathan. They don’t want to ask Liriano to be their closer one day, only to make a trade, which would leave them scrambling to turn Liriano back into a starter.

I hope the reason the Twins are reluctant to move Liriano to the closer role isn’t just because they’re afraid of telling him one thing, then doing something behind his back that turns what they’d previously said into a lie — especially since they don’t need to do either. I hope it’s more along the lines of “Liriano is leading the majors in strikeouts in Spring Training, and he’s not walking anybody, maybe, just maybe, a guy with a 22/2 K/BB ratio is good enough to be the 5th starter on a team without a #1 starter, or a #2 starter, or a #3 starter.” I hope this story keeps coming up because people just need to find something to write about that isn’t “Holy shit, the Twins are going to win 95 games and cruise to the AL Central title by at least 10 wins,” because while that’s probably what’s going to happen, “predicting” it will get you called a fool and being right won’t happen for eight months and nobody will remember or care that you were right. If anything they’ll just remember that they thought you were a fool at the time. So … invent some controversy!

But this isn’t even reasonable, right? If you didn’t know anything about Liriano — you didn’t know about his amazing 2006, or his injury, or his struggle to recover from surgery — and all you saw was a guy with 22 strikeouts and 2 walks in 14 innings in Spring Training, what would you think? Would you think: “Oh yeah, get him the hell out of the rotation, starters shouldn’t be allowed to pitch that well.” Fuck no you wouldn’t think that.

Rob Neyer takes a look at it this afternoon, in his ongoing series of looking into the 5th starter plans* of all the major league teams.

* This amuses me greatly, because Neyer is on the forefront this spring of making the point that the “5th starter” designation is largely pointless, because nobody ever has 5 starters who make 30 starts, or 24 starts, or 20 starts. The “5th starter” just an interchangeable guy, and might be better served as a platoon of long relievers and prospects anyway. You may or may not agree with that, but the point is that the guy who most strongly agrees with it is also the one paying the most attention to who gets selected as the 5th starters around the league, and writing about it. Just saying.

And Neyer’s take made me feel a little better, because he’s as confused as I am.

Maybe it’s just me, but when I see a starter with two walks and 22 strikeouts, I’m reminded of why his best role is as a starter.

I’m a little perplexed by this supposed plan. Instead of going with one of their many adequate relievers to finish the close games, they’re trying to trade for some other team’s adequate reliever. If they don’t add another adequate reliever, they’re going to ask their most dominant starting pitcher to become a reliever?

It doesn’t seem to make sense, does it. And of course, Neyer’s using the word “dominating” in the sense of performance-based metrics, which for pitchers means “strikeouts and walks,” and Liriano has the best numbers out of anybody. Not just on the Twins, but anybody. Eleven strikeouts per walk. You do that over the course of a whole season and they’ll give you two Cy Young awards at the end of the year.

* Santana peaked at 5.2 K/BB, Lincecum at 3.8, and Greinke got up to 4.75 in 2009. 11 is off the fucking charts.

Of course, nobody’s saying Liriano can keep that pace up. It’s impossible for a reason. But don’t you want to at least find out before you make a decision that’s even more damaging to the team’s chances of winning than losing Nathan in the first place?

Hey, it could work. The Twins are famous for their scouting acumen, and choosing this season’s closer is a pure scouting decision. If it’s my team, though, I see if Liriano can maintain a brilliant strikeout-to-walk ratio over the course of 200 innings rather than 65.

Yes. My thoughts exactly. Let’s hope the Twins’ front office is a little bit calmer than the writers who are getting ravenous for a storyline.