Hitting the Foul Pole

I’ve noticed for a while that Gardy throws Valencia under the bus at every opportunity. In a game where Valencia hit a home run but also failed to advance the runner from second to third in a later at bat, Gardy will mention said failure in the postgame press conference. In a game in which the bullpen collapsed and threw away a big lead, Gardy will point out that Valencia didn’t bunt, or muffed a hard grounder down the line, or something.

This has seemed to me like another example of one of the main problems I have with Gardy’s managerial style — that he seems to be very highly critical of his talented (but not highly talented) young-ish players, in a way that he isn’t of players who are either old or bad or both.

But check out this quote, courtesy of Phil Mackey:

“I think he enjoys it, to tell you the truth,” Gardenhire said, regarding Valencia handling criticism. “I think it makes him feel like he’s a part of stuff when people are getting on him. Because he’s constantly saying, ‘How come these guys are getting on me about this, Gardy, and not getting on this guy about this?’ So I know he likes it. I really believe he likes that stuff.”

Evidently, Gardy is deliberately trying to find ways to criticize Valencia, because he thinks Valencia likes it.

Of course, when I hear that Valencia says “How come these cuys are getting on me about this, Gardy, and not getting on this guy about this?”, I don’t think that sounds like he likes it. It sounds like he thinks it’s bullshit.

And even if Gardy is right, that Valencia does like being criticized more than all the other players even when he’s not doing anything wrong, I imagine he doesn’t appreciate it when Gardy says he needs to start producing more or he’s going to be sent down to Rochester.

What do you think? Have I misread Valencia’s feelings? Is Gardy out of touch? Or is this much ado about nothing?

Well, that was a nice little vacation.  We here at hitting the foul pole decided to take most of the winter off, rather than provide you with regular, but probably sub-par content.  We’re back starting today.  As you all know, the Twins open up the 2011 season in Canada when Pavano faces Ricky Romero at 6:07 (07?! WTF) at the RogersCentre (centre?! WTF) in Toronto.

I’ve been reading recaps from the handful of games that took place yesterday and for most of the winning teams, the phrase “according to plan” was in the recap somewhere.  That got me thinking, what should the Twins “plan” be to win the game today (and win the division).  Last year, Pavano was relied upon to pitch deep into the ballgame, so one would assume that getting him into the 7th is a major part of the plan. That goes for probably everyone on the staff, but having the Kevin Slowey insurance blanket will be nice if someone flames out.  Another thing that was supposed to be part of last year’s plan was Span getting on base, that didn’t happen too often in 2010.  I think we need to see Span dramatically raise his OBP from last year and get it back into his 2008-09 range.  I think he is capable of doing that, Over the Baggy did a nice write up looking for the root of his problem in 2010. I think everyone knows how the rest of the plan is suppose to work.  Get guys on base for Mauer-Morneau-Young (and maybe Cuddyer and Kubel) and they drive them in.  That part of the plan is pretty simple. Even with Span’s problems we scored plenty of runs last year.

The next step is keeping everyone healthy.  Losing Morneau last year didn’t hurt us nearly as much as I would have thought.  However, that doesn’t mean I want it to happen again.  Some of the more injury prone guys need to be given their fair share (or maybe more) days off early on, so that they can be 100% for the stretch run. It also helps that there are a lot of off days in April.

What else do the Twins need to do to be successful this season? I know I’m not breaking any ground with “get on base” and “stay healthy” but when it comes down to it, the formula for winning isn’t that complicated.  Welcome back to HTFP and we hope to have a great season.

There are a few reasons to be concerned about giving Carl Pavano a multi-year contract — among them his age, injury history, and low rate of striking people out — but this article over at Fangraphs makes me wonder if there’s hope that Pavano could reverse his recent trend toward contact inducement. The article points out that while Pavano’s strikeout rate is dangerously low and getting lower, the decline in strikeouts was met by a corresponding jump in groundballs.

Almost across the board his pitches have higher GB% and lower whiff (swinging-strike) rates. The only exception is his four-seam fastball had slightly higher whiffs in 2010. Swinging strikes and ground balls generally trade off, but it is interesting to see to play out so clearly for one player from year to year.

The difference is the most striking with Pavano’s slider which went from 37.5% GBs in 2009 to 59.2% in 2010, accompanied by a decrease in whiff rate (per pitch) from 12% to 10%. It looks to me that this was caused by location in the strike zone.

One of the tenets of modern baseball analysis is that pitchers have very little control over balls in play — that’s why most people were so sure that Pavano’s 5.10 ERA in 2009 would drop significantly once his .329 BABIP dropped. Sure enough, in 2010 his BABIP was only .281 and his ERA went down to 3.75 despite shockingly identical FIP (4.00 vs 4.02) and xFIP (3.96 vs 4.01).

My question is, was his improvement from 2009 to 2010 merely a coincidence, or did he have some control over the decline in BABIP? Chiefly, he knew coming into 2010 that he’d have a significantly improved infield defense behind him, with Orlando Hudson and JJ Hardy manning the middle infield. Did Pavano consciously trade swings-and-misses for weak-contact-inducement?

As with most of my musing, there’s no way to know Pavano’s intentions. But there are a few ways to look at the Pavano prism moving forward. One way is to assume that he didn’t actively try to shape his K/9 vs GB%, that his skills are declining as he ages, and he was fortunate enough to run into a 50-point drop in BABIP that made people think he’s a top-of-the-rotation workhorse. If that’s what you think, you’re probably terrified about what’s going to happen to him as the middle infield behind him switches from the excellent Hardy/Hudson combo to the giant question mark that is Casilla/Nishioka.

On the other hand, if you think he tried to trade strikeouts for ground balls in 2010, then presumably you think he could reverse that trend in 2011 if he saw a need to. And given that giant question mark behind him in the infield, maybe he’ll see a need to trade ground balls back into strikeouts.

The important thing for the Twins is that Pavano stays healthy enough to throw 200 innings at a Scott-Baker-like 4.00 FIP/xFIP. How he gets there isn’t crucial to the bottom line, but I think it could be an interesting thing to watch.

So as the 2011 season progresses, I’ll be watching Pavano’s BABIP but perhaps even more tellingly, his K/9 and GB%. If his K/9 stays around 4 and his GB% stays above 50%, then he hasn’t been able to adjust back to his previous ways (whether he tried to or not).

Tell me in the comments, what are your thoughts? Do you think Pavano tried to make the strikeouts-for-grounders trade? Would such a trade be possible? Was it a good idea in 2010, and would it be a good idea to trade back in 2011?

Since arriving in 2004, even more than his on-the-field production, Nick Punto’s main contribution to the team and its fans has been that he has represented the Minnesota Twins to the world.

When I say represented, I mean it in a good way, I think. Nick Punto has embodied the Twins’ Platonic ideal of what a position player should be; high-effort, high-hustle, defensive-minded, versatile, singles hitter who values a high batting average at the expense of walks and extra base hits. Nick Punto has also been a metaphor for the team’s success over the past several years; outmatched on paper by superior teams with higher payrolls, with virtues that seem to exist but can’t (yet?) be quantified, but somehow competitive year in and year out.

I’ve given Punto more than his fair share of grief over the years. My thinking had been along the lines of what a utility player like Punto is worth to a team — for a good team with a high payroll and many good players and the expectation of contending, a good utility guy is worth a lot more than he would be to a team with a low payroll and a smaller collection of good players. If Punto is the fifth-most important player on your team, then you have a bad team; if Punto is the tenth-most important player, then you have a good team.

And I always thought that the Twins could have spent Punto’s salary better in other places, when they had smaller payrolls and dollars were scarce. Now that the team has more revenue and a higher payroll, I naturally assumed that bringing back Punto was essentially a no-brainer. Not only could the team clearly afford it, but he has fans among his teammates and the coaching staff and the media and the fanbase. Joe Christensen points out that that assumption appears to be faulty:

Punto is still a free agent, but from all indications, the Twins won’t be bringing him back.

What?

There are a few options, as I see it, to explain what the Twins may be thinking.

• Nick Punto is over the hill, and/or his performance will drop below what they have come to expect from him
• The performance gap between Punto and Tolbert will be smaller than the salary gap, and they’re making a value play
• They simply can’t afford it
• They disagree with my premise that a utility player is more valuable to a high-payroll team and don’t think they need him any more
• They are signalling that they are adjusting their vision of the ideal ballplayer — throwing out the mold, if you will

The Twins would have you believe that the issue is money, and they cannot afford Punto’s services:

With a projected Opening Day payroll of $113 million, they insist they have reached their limit. Insiders say Carl Pavano’s contract actually pushed them over budget, requiring special approval from CEO Jim Pohlad.

On the other hand, Christensen asserts that “even if it meant taking a sizeable pay cut, Punto would be thrilled to return,” though he doesn’t provide a source. Maybe Punto told him as much directly, and maybe he didn’t. The sizeable paycut angle, I think, bashes a crowbar against the kneecaps of both the performance/salary gap theory and the overall can’t-afford-it theory, regardless of what ownership claims about how broke they are.* If they wanted Punto and could get him at a significant paycut from $4M, they’d do it.

* Am I falling into the trap of thinking that now that Target Field is open, the Twins have virtually unlimited funds? I haven’t seen their revenue numbers, but they’ve stated that team payroll will remain pegged to 52% of revenue as it was when they played in the Metrodome. Maybe it really is true that $110M or so is the payroll limit, and they’ve gone above it. I don’t think I believe that, but it’s certainly possible.

That leaves the theories that involve the Twins no longer wanting Punto around.

So, which is it? Is Punto over the hill, and the Twins don’t think he’s good any more? Do they not think they need a solid utility man, and can get by with a lesser one? Or have they changed their idea of the quintessential Twin, and are moving in a different direction?

I don’t think it’s possible to know that. Bill Smith certainly isn’t going to come out and explain it for us.

Regardless of the reasons, though, if Nick Punto doesn’t return to the Twins it sure feels like the end of an era.

We here at hitting the foul pole have been pretty busy lately, that is why we haven’t posted in over a month.  Obviously a lot has gone on since Thanksgiving.  The team successfully bid on, and signed infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, traded JJ Hardy for two minor league relief pitchers, let Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier leave to sign 3 year contracts, we picked up someone named Scott Diamond in the Rule V draft,  and Carl Pavano is still on the market. Oh, and Joe Mauer had minor knee surgery.

I still find myself upset at the Hardy trade.  When healthy, he was one of the top shorstops in the AL (if not all of Major League Baseball), so he deservedly was due a raise.  All estimates I have seen were that he would be bumped up to the 7-8 million dollar range.  According to Fangraphs he was worth 9.5 million, ais projected to be worth 12.8 next season.  I’m not math whiz, but if we can get12.8 million for 7 or 8, that is a pretty good deal.  Color me confused.

So not only did we trade an excellent SS, we let Hudson walk.  I have no problem with that move, but by getting rid of both middle infielders and replacing them with two giant question marks in Nishioka and Casilla seems the Twins are taking an unneccessary risk.  My guess is Bill Smith and co will use this money to attempt to retain Pavano. Which apparently will require three years.

MISTAKE!!!

In what universe is giving a pitcher with an extensive injury history on the wrong side of 30, a good idea? Oh, and coming off a career year?  Does anyone really think Pavano can repeat 2010 once, let alone thrice?

The Hardy trade did net us two relief pitchers, one of which might be able to contribute in 2011.  The bullpen is a freaking disaster right now, so I guess any help will come in handy. There are definitely some internal candidates such as Delaney, Slama, Burnett, and Manship, and bounceback years from Nathan and Neshek would be welcome surprises. Re-signing Jon Rauch is also an option if the price is right, but for someone who had 20+ saves last year it won’t be. What I’m trying to say, is the bullpen could be OK if everything swings our way, which obviously won’t happen.  I’m not saying we should have handed three year contracts to Crain and/or Guerrier, but it is unfortunate that they both became prized free agents at the same time.

According to my twitter feed, I’m not the only one who has been discouraged by the offseason moves so far.  Let’s hope once the calendar turns to 2011, Bill Smith and his brain trust make some moves to solidify the relief corps, and add depth to the bench.

You know what was in vogue last week? Offseason blueprints! That’s why we’re finally getting around to one here at Hitting the Foul Pole, where you can always trust that we’ll wait until something has gone slightly stale before taking a bite.

Many of the blueprints I’ve glanced at — I haven’t read all of them, mind you — seem to assume that the Twins will be just as active this offseason as they were last winter. But last year, the Twins were reaping the rewards of entering the new stadium, and thus had a lot more money than usual to spend. Now that they’re at (or above) their payroll limit, I’d guess that they’ll be back to their normal behavior of looking to get adequate players on the cheap to replace the production of more expensive players.

Position Players

• C: Joe Mauer
• 1B: Justin Morneau
• 2B: Alexi Casilla
• 3B: Danny Valencia
• SS: JJ Hardy
• LF: Delmon Young
• CF: Denard Span
• RF: Michael Cuddyer
• DH: Jim Thome

I expect that the Twins will make an offer to Nick Punto, something along the lines of 2 years, $5M. I also expect, though, that someone else will find his particular skillset more valuable than that — he is more valuable than that, especially to a team in the Twins’ predicament, talent-wise. However, with the budget crunch, that money is better spent elsewhere. I think Punto’s days with the Twins are probably over, and I’ll have to make sure I write about that when it happens.

I also think it’d be a good idea to re-sign Jim Thome. The fans love him, the players love him; he seemed to have a good influence on the slower, stronger players on the team. He’s said he’d love to come back, and Bill Smith has said the Twins would love to have him back. They’ll find a way to make it work, probably in the $3-5M range.

JJ Hardy has been called a “non-tender candidate” by a lot of people — and it’s true that his production was disappointing in 2010 — but I just don’t see it. Even while he struggled, he was among the best shortstops in the American League. The only real gamble here is whether he’ll be able to stay healthy; he probably won’t, which means we’ll see plenty of Trevor Plouffe in 2011.

Casilla can slide in and replace most of Orlando Hudson’s production for 10% of the price — but, as is always the case with Casilla, just because he can doesn’t mean he will. Will we see the Casilla who posts a 95 OPS+ and makes dazzling plays, or the Casilla who posts a 45 OPS+ and botches routine plays? Nobody knows … and this could be Casilla’s last shot with the Twins. If he sucks this year, he could be gone.

I know a lot of people want to see Cuddyer gone. But his salary means that the Twins wouldn’t get anything in a trade for him unless they ate most (or all) of his salary, and his good-but-not-great talent level means that even then, they wouldn’t get much. Not to mention, by the way, that there’s nobody who can really slide in and replace him. This will be Cuddyer’s last season with the Twins, as Joe Benson and Aaron Hicks may move quickly through the system this year. But there’s no feasible way — or reason — to get Cuddyer off the roster for 2011. (That said, I hate the fact that the Twins had to decide on his 2011 option before the 2010 season. If they had to decide on his option now, they could easily decline it and sign him to a smaller salary, and he’d take it.)

Bench

• C: Jose Morales
• IF: Matt Tolbert
• OF: Jason Kubel
• OF: Jason Repko

I hate Drew Butera, and Morales seems like the ideal backup catcher. I know that Butera will get the call in Morales’ stead, but I don’t care for it. Not even a little bit.

Tolbert is like the poor man’s Punto. He’s worse at every defensive position, he’s even worse at the plate, and he hustles even more falsely. But he’s a utility infielder who can fill in at all three infield positions, and every team needs one of those.

Kubel will be able to spell Young, Cuddyer, and Thome, and will get a ton of playing time — probably more than Thome, actually. It’s probably not even fair to put him on the bench. He needs a bounce-back season, and I don’t think it’s crazy to hope that he finds a happy medium between the “one of the best hitters in the league” of 2009 and the “sucks” of 2010.

Repko can do for the outfield what Tolbert can do for the infield. He can get hot and hit a little bit, but he can also go ice cold. But as a right handed batter who can pinch hit for one of the lefties in the lineup, or pinch run for one of the lumbering dinosaurs, or come in as a defensive replacement for anyone in the outfield, he’s got value. And a spot on the roster.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ben Revere called up in the second half of the year; he’s not ready now, though.

Rotation

• Francisco Liriano
• Scott Baker
• Kevin Slowey
• Nick Blackburn
• Brian Duensing

This is probably the spot that most fans want to see the most change, but I don’t really see how it’s going to happen. The Twins will definitely offer Pavano arbitration; he’ll decline and take a multi-year deal elsewhere, because he’s the best free agent pitcher not named “Cliff Lee” and has now put together a track record of kicking ass for a contending team. So long and thanks for all the fish; and draft picks.

I was a big pusher for Liriano in 2010 — and after I made his Cy Young case, he decided to basically call it a season and suck in all the rest of his starts. So that was awesome. That said, he was excellent despite piss-poor luck. I’m guessing his luck will improve while his dominance slides a little bit, and his shallow numbers will look better in 2011 than they did in 2010.

Beyond Liriano, the rotation either looks fairly solid … or like a total mess. I think it depends on which angle you look at it. Or which side of the bed you woke up on, or the phase of the moon. Something. Baker and Blackburn aren’t going anywhere, as they’re under contract (and haven’t been good enough that some other team would be willing to trade for those contracts).

I think the Twins like Duensing, and they might as well keep riding him. He’s not as good as his numbers, but on the other hand he’s good enough to be an excellent fifth starter. (Which could get him a bunch of wins this season, making him an intriguing trade chip for next winter.)

There have been stories bouncing around that the Twins have soured on Kevin Slowey; something about not liking his attitude. I don’t understand that at all, since he seems like exactly the sort of pitcher the Twins like (tons of strikes, no walks, lots of line drives and home runs), and he sure doesn’t seem like an asshole — not like Garza and Lohse, anyway. So if the Twins are going to make a move in the rotation, I guess it’d be to move Slowey and replace him somehow, but I bet they don’t bother.

Bullpen

• Joe Nathan
• Matt Capps
• Jesse Crain
• Jose Mijares
• Anthony Slama
• Rob Delaney
• Jeff Manship

Nathan will be back! His days of dominance are probably behind him, and he’ll be a vastly overpaid figurehead; but you don’t have to be awesome to be a Closer. The unholy combination of Jon Rauch and Matt Capps combined to convert just as many saves at the same rate as Joe Nathan At His Best would have. So it’ll probably be nice to be able to hide Nathan in the 9th inning, where he can rack up easy saves like he did to earn that fat contract in the first place. It’ll be a fun ride, with plenty of white knuckles and broken bottles.

I think Capps is a non-tender candidate, much more than Hardy is, but the Twins aren’t even going to consider that. They gave up Wilson Ramos to get him, and part of their reasoning was that Capps was under team control for 2011. So they’ll offer him arbitration, he’ll make $6-8M, and he’ll demonstrate once again that he’s really not all that great. Having Capps in the 8th inning is another way to hide Nathan in the 9th — leads that Nathan could have tried to protect will be pissed away before he has a chance. Brace yourself for a lot of “I hate Matt Capps” tweeting next year.

Mijares is good and cheap; Manship can do the job of a long reliever, and will be capable of sliding into the rotation when someone inevitably sucks (I’m looking at you, Blackburn) or gets injured (Slowey!). Other long relief options include Alex Burnett, Glen Perkins, and the newly acquired Eric Hacker … all of whom make me want to go stand in the rain for a while.

The rest of the bullpen is tricky, though. The Twins have Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, Ron Mahay, and Brian Fuentes as pending free agents. Offering arbitration to any of them is dangerous, because they would probably make more money in arbitration than they would on the free agent market, especially those Type A free agents that would cost signing teams a draft pick.

You know what’s funny about the draft pick compensation? That the picks are all the same, regardless of the relative talents of the players being signed or how big the contracts are. Carl Crawford and Cliff Lee are Type A free agents, but no team would blink an eye when surrendering a first round draft pick to get them; but a guy like Juan Cruz or Orlando Hudson or Orlando Cabrera can see their market value completely disappear by getting that scarlet A stapled to their chest.

Here’s the thing: the surplus value of a draft pick in the second half of the first round is calculated to be $5.2M, by Victor Wang. When you’re talking about signing a long term contract worth over $100M, that extra $5M you’re giving up isn’t a big deal. But when you’re signing a guy for around $5M (because that’s what he’s worth), then it’s basically crazy that you’d have to give up a first round pick for the right to do so — it doubles what you have to pay, and gives a long term asset to a rival team.

This is made worse by the fact that the “Type A” system is totally broken: 12 of the 34 Type A free agents are relief pitchers.

The point is this: don’t expect the Twins to get a bunch of draft picks in return for their departing relief corps. Guerrier has been used a lot — I kind of expect his arm to fall off at any moment. Mahay sucks. Rauch sucks. If Fuentes gets an arbitration offer he’s guaranteed to take it, since he’ll make at least $9M from it.

The only interesting guy is Jesse Crain. He apparently believes he can get a look as a Closer somewhere; the Twins should offer him arbitration and tell him they fully support his search for a 9th inning job somewhere, and that if he doesn’t find anything he’s welcome to come back to the Twins on a 1-year or 2-year deal.

Conclusion

As you can see, I don’t expect this to be a very active offseason. Everyone on the roster according to this blueprint was on the roster in 2010. Even still, the payroll would be well over $100M.

Bear in mind, this won’t be a disaster for Twins fans, and it wouldn’t be a failure by the front office. The Twins shot for the moon in 2010, and played three bad games at the wrong time. They can return most of that team for another shot in 2011, before it’s time for another 2008/2009-style retooling.

Last winter was exciting, and gave Twins fans a taste of what the hot stove season is like when your team actually participates. Don’t get used to it, though — it’s not going to happen every year. So sit back and watch the other teams fight, and wait for Spring Training. It gets closer every day!

The world series has been over for a week or so, and I’m already going through baseball withdrawal.  I’ve been thinking about what the Twins should do this offseason, as there are many pending free agents and options to deal with. The team already picked up Kubel’s option, and declined Punto’s.  Both moves were pretty close to no-brainers.

The bullpen has the potential for big turnover. Rauch, Crain, Guerrier, Flores, Mahay, and Fuentes are all free agents. Crain should get pretty significant interest from other teams to be a closer.  I’m sure the Twins will attempt to keep Crain, Guerrier, and Rauch, but they rightfully won’t overpay.  I hope.

Orlando Hudson also seems to be a goner. Per his contract the Twins cannot offer him arbitration, so he will most likely get a multi year offer form someone.  One of my biggest concerns is who will play second base.  I was pretty impressed with Trevor Plouffe in his limited time with the club in 2010. So I hope he gets a good look in spring training.

Another big question mark is Thome. He will definitely garner a lot of interest around the AL, and I hope the Twins make a run at him.  However, with Morneau back, and the Kubel option already picked up, where would he get at bats?

Also, here is another thought to marinate: Trade Cuddyer and use the money to beef up the starting pitching.  I think we should make a serious run at Josh Johnson, or (more realistically)  Ricky Nolasco. Think about it.

If you blinked, you may have missed the Twins’ annual postseason beatdown at the hands of the Yankees. It sure happened in a hurry.

What might be the problem? According to this totally unscientific and probably biased poll, people think the two biggest factors are that they can’t beat the Yankees, or that Gardy is the problem. It seems to me that if one of those is a problem, then they both are — the only common threads between the Twins/Yankees at the beginning of the current streak of dominance and the Twins/Yankees today are the cities where the teams play (but not the stadiums), Gardy, and perhaps the amused attitude the media takes to the lovable small market peons that have the gall to even show up to the postseason.

If Gardy is the problem, then it’s going to be a tough one to fix. Overall, Gardy is a good manager; probably one of the best in the game right now, especially over the course of the full season. He seems to understand the ebbs and flows of the season, and that today isn’t necessarily as important as all the tomorrows — for example, he pulled Kevin Slowey after seven no-hit innings, because the chance at a no-hitter on that day wasn’t as important as Slowey’s health for the rest of the season and for the rest of Slowey’s career. This is the sort of attitude and behavior that will keep the clubhouse loose even when things are going badly, and will engender a feeling of trust among the players. That may well be the secret to Gardy’s success as a manager.

However, he leaves a lot to be desired from an in-game, tactical perspective. Part of that is certainly that he’s willing to sacrifice today to protect tomorrow. He won’t bring in the closer for a 5-out save, because he wants the closer available tomorrow. He won’t push back a struggling starter’s spot in the rotation because he doesn’t want to hurt his confidence. He’ll leave a slumping hitter at the plate despite the platoon disadvantage. Over the course of the season, you’d think these tactical “mistakes” would add up; but it seems to me that Gardy’s record suggests that either they don’t add up to all that much, that it all pretty much evens out, or that the benefits of his approach outweigh the negatives.

Unfortunately, that approach doesn’t apply nearly as well in the postseason. Once the playoffs start, tomorrow matters a whole lot less than today — for one thing, there are fewer tomorrows; and perhaps more importantly, without today, there may not be any tomorrows at all. Each moment in the playoffs is magnified — this is what the TBS and Fox announcers have repeated from their script hundreds of times so far in these playoffs. So the postseason minimizes Gardy’s positive contributions, and maximizes the effects of his weaknesses. It’s no wonder, then, that Gardy’s teams have repeatedly struggled in the playoffs.

Now, I don’t believe this explains why the Twins have lost 12 consecutive playoff games, or 9 straight to the Yankees. I do, however, see how it would explain why the Twins would lose each of these playoff series (especially combined with the fact that they were the lesser team in each case); it’s not a far step from there, for small sample size flukes to turn four straight playoff series losses into four straight playoff series sweeps. It sucks, and it hurts every time — each year, I’ve managed to convince myself that this time, somehow, it’ll be different — but what can you do about it?

Is firing Gardenhire an option? The Twins don’t consider it to be one — Bill Smith said extending Gardy’s contract was “a no brainer” after the season ended — and I tend to agree. Would the Twins have dominated the AL Central this decade with a different manager at the helm? Maybe, and maybe not. Would they have fared better in the playoffs, when or if they made it? Maybe, and maybe not. It’s not really a fair question, nor is it even possible to answer.

Posnanski has talked in the past about following a team whose philosophy about the game differs from your own. The example he typically gives is that a statistically-minded fan, who believes that there’s more to understanding the game than was etched in stone by the cigar-chomping fathers of baseball, can struggle to deal with rooting for a team that openly and proudly rejects progress; that when you as a fan believe that OBP is an important offensive statistic and the team you follow proudly runs out a lineup of sub-.300 OBP “hitters,” it gets frustrating. It’s a rough feeling.

I’ve had that feeling about the Twins, at times. They value a certain sort of player, a slap-hitting middle infielder with more hustle than talent, a guy who hits .300/.300/.300 (bats .300 but draws no walks and hits nothing but singles); meanwhile, I value a different sort of player, who may not have a .300 batting average but who will draw walks and take multiple bases when he gets a hit. They value a certain sort of pitcher, a strike-throwing machine who can hit his spots and minimize walks; I value a different sort of pitcher, who has movement on his pitches or who throws harder, and can generate strikeouts. The Twins and I have disagreed as to the source of their success: they have always believed it was due to those strike-throwers having a solid defense behind them, and I’ve always pointed out that when the team had an ERA among the league leaders, the pitching staff was also among the league leaders in strikeouts, and strikeout-to-walk ratio.

In this case, though, we’re not talking about whether you agree with the team’s philosophy on what makes a good baseball player, or even what wins games. This is a larger question, one that even more certainly has no “true,” or “correct” answer. That question is: What do you value in a baseball season?

Seems simple, right? But I think you’ll find that the answer is a bit more difficult to put your finger on than you might think. Do you value championships, above all else? Many fans would like to think that they do, but if that were true, they’d either be Yankee fans or perpetually unhappy — there just aren’t that many championships. Do you value postseason success; not necessarily winning championships, but competing strongly for them and getting close? That gives a little more leeway, but still, you’re only enjoying baseball when your team is among the best in the league. Perhaps you enjoy the business side of baseball, wondering what you’d do differently if you were the GM — what moves would you do differently, what sort of team would you build from this foundation? Or the tactical aspect of individual games — if you were the manager, would you bring in that reliever now, or see if the starter can get a couple more guys? Like I said, there’s no right answer, and I would think that most fans would answer in the affirmative to multiple of these examples.

Maybe, though, you value something else about a baseball season. Maybe you value the daily grind, getting to the ballpark or to your favored chair in front of the television, at the same time every day, to watch the games unfold in front of you. Maybe you enjoy watching the young players move up through the system, until they finally join the big club and you can see how they fit in and wonder what it’s like in the clubhouse. Maybe you like the ups and downs of a long season — the downs can feel so bad, and so dark, and you can wonder how this team could ever win a game … but that only makes the ups seem so much brighter, that your team is on top of the world and cannot be stopped, that the summer is flying by in a blur of bats cracking, balls flying, brilliant moments, sunsets, and cheers. That is, maybe you value the season as a whole, moreso than any individual game, than any particular move, than how big is the trophy that the team gets at the end of it.

And by sticking with Gardy, I think that’s what the Twins are saying that they value. It’s not how you feel after the last game of the season; rather, it’s how you felt through all the games.

Maybe mastering the long season prevents Gardy from performing in a short series where individual games mean everything. Maybe he just needs to learn a different way to manage, a different way to inspire the players, a different perspective that only comes into focus in the heat of the postseason. Maybe the playoffs are a complete crapshoot, and all this talk that Gardy “can’t win” in the playoffs will dissolve like so much smoke in the wind once the Twins finally stop drawing the short straw once they get there.

Who knows? Myself, I value the 162 games that come first, considerably more than the 3 games that came last. And for once, the Twins seem to agree. It’s a strange feeling, to agree philosophically with your team. A good feeling.

What do you value in a baseball season?

Late Monday afternoon, a tweet came fluttering to my attention, borne by the whispering aether that is the internet. It was brilliant in its simplicity, yet invited so much thought, I couldn’t let it pass by un-considered.

What would a batting order of Twins blogs look like? @TwinkieTown

Now, perhaps it wasn’t supposed to be some soft of profound question, cutting straight to the heart of the blogosphere. Perhaps its author was merely bored, waiting for the Twins game to start. Perhaps it doesn’t matter one way or the other, as it happens, because once inspiration strikes the damage is done. It’s much like lightning in that way.

Now, I personally didn’t agree with the idea of a batting order. The idea of fitting together a pitching staff suited my fancy much better — and since I was the one who was doing all the thinking about it, I figured I’d just go with it.

Take a walk with me, if you will, through the Twins blogosphere. And please do bear in mind that there are no right or wrong answers here — even more so than usual, that is — and there are no stats here. If you read all these blogs already, then you probably know even better than I do that this is all just so much nonsense. On the other hand, you might find a new blog to check out. And that would make the whole thing worthwhile.

Rotation

Ace: Aaron Gleeman

The veteran of the staff, and the most respected around the league — most teams don’t have an Ace like Gleeman. If effective writing is a fastball and statistical analysis is breaking balls, then Gleeman has pretty good stuff. And if wordcount says anything about how deep he can go into games, then he can give the bullpen a break pretty much every time out.

Second Starter: Seth Speaks

The second starter is Seth Stohs, who does excellent work with the Twins’ farm system, produces a regular podcast, and is consistently interesting and thoughtful. You could do worse in a #2 starter. From what I can tell, he’s also a go-to guy on Twitter when someone wants a question answered; he manages to combine a great understanding of the game with a significant following and, somehow, a lack of the arrogance that typically comes with people caring about what you think.

Third Starter: Nick’s Twins Blog

Nick Nelson is so good his blog was picked up by the ESPN SweetSpot network, but he still writes about the Twins, so he’s eligible to be on this team. Once again, consistent and thoughful: the Twins Blogosphere has a pretty good playoff rotation. He’s got the good fastball, he has good command of his breaking stuff (stats), and he posts regularly.

Fourth Starter: Twinkie Town

This is a very active community blog. They have a sizable team of writers, constantly refreshing their page with new content. Seriously: they post several new articles every day. A lot of managers like to have an innings eater on staff, and that’s what you’ll get at Twinkie Town; guaranteed innings. So if you’re feeling bored, feel free to go get sucked in.

Fifth Starter: Twins Geek

It’s probably unfair to call John Bonnes of Twins Geek the fifth starter; he knows his baseball and can write a fair bit too. His penchant for coming up with interesting takes without getting too bogged down in esoteric numbers is refreshing, and he’ll frequently whip out a good non-stats article to keep you on your toes. I originally had him anchoring the bullpen, but you can get more value out of a starter than you can out of a reliever. I think he’d appreciate that.

Bullpen

Closer: The WGOM

You don’t need a closer every day — though you’d like him to be available at any time — but when you do need him you want him to have a blazing fastball, a biting slider, and a certain presence on the mound. You want stats? You want analysis? You want funny stories? You want to bring in this team of writers, led by StickAndBallGuy, to finish off the game for you.

Setup man: Over the Baggy

Graphs. Charts. Numbers. Good ideas. When you’ve got a narrow lead late in the game, those are the kinds of pitches that will maintain that lead. The author, Parker Hageman, “takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player’s heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse.” What I mean is, he has good command of his breaking ball.

LOOGY: A Fan’s View

If you need to get a tough lefty, you don’t necessarily need the biggest fastball or the most advanced numbers — sometimes it’s best to come at him from an angle he wouldn’t expect. Howard Sinker writes for the Star Tribune, but he does it from the fan’s perspective — he’s not a beat writer. Sometimes a little off the beaten trail, but he’ll keep your spirits up when the team is getting you down.

Middle relief: k-bro’s baseball blog

k-bro may not bring the stats as consistently as many other bloggers do, but don’t take that as a criticism; if the entire blogosphere was all-stats-all-the-time, it’d be just as bad as the no-stats-ever Mainstream Old Guy Media that thinks blogs are just for stats in the first place. The point is, you don’t need to have a lot of numbers on your pages to write a good blog, and k-bro writes a good blog.

Long relief: Josh’s Thoughts

Your long reliever doesn’t get into a lot of games, but when he does come in you’re going to want him to give you some innings. And Josh Johnson — who has the sort of name that makes you think he’s got a future in this game — doesn’t disappoint when he takes the mound. He hasn’t posted much recently, but when he does it’s a lengthy, well-considered article in which he does an excellent job articulating his ideas. Like most long relievers, you hope that he can gain some consistency and earn a spot in the starting rotation some day.

That was fun … and more difficult than I thought it would be. Figuring out who was a better baseball player than whom must have been quite the ordeal back in those dark days before Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs existed. And maybe I’m just getting ready to get old, but it seems to me that if there’s ever a site that actually measures baseball bloggers on objective metrics and ostensibly assigns a “value” to them, well, blogging will have gotten just a little more fun. A dark day, you might say.

Unless those stats tell me that I’m good, in which case I’m all for them.

Since this site used to be called FireGardy, everyone seems to think we are Gardy hating wackjobs.  Well I have news for you, we don’t hate Gardy (the wackjobs part is up for debate).  I personally think he is one of the top three to five  managers in the AL.  So, after finishing second an absurd five times, is Gardy finally ready to win?  I say yes.

The Twins started the season without their best pitcher, Joe Nathan.  He had been one of the best closers in baseball over the base several years, and Jon Rauch was hardly an adequate replacement.  Things started off great for the Twins, they were one of the top teams in baseball in April and May.  Then mid-June rolled around and Nick Blackburn’s deal with the devil expired.  Injuries plagued Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey. The devil came back and rescinded whatever deal he had with Rauch. Then the biggest blow of them all, Morneau took a knee to the face on July 7th and has been out ever since.  Gardy didn’t blink, though.  He and Bill Smith put on their thinking caps and banished Blackburn and his 6.66 ERA (literally, that is what it was at the time.  Look it up) to Rochester and inserted Brian Duensing into the rotation.  He performed way better than expected, and looks to be one of the Twins top three starters for a potential division series.

 I for one have been shocked that he hasn’t pulled Valnecia to give Punto the starting 3B job.  Is this a sign of Gardy growing as a manager? Probably.  Everyone says the Twins do the “little things right”.  Well news flash, they don’t.  But they are still in first place because Gardy and his staff have been able to guide them through all of these rough patches, and he doesn’t let his players get down when they make an error or baserunning mistake.  That is very important.

We all often question Gardy’s use of his pitchers.  Or his lineup construction on getaway days.  This year, though, Gardy has been a steady hand at the wheel of a ship that has sailed through some very rough seas. To say he isn’t manager of the year material is pretty foolish.  So count me among the converted.  I now consider Ron Gardenhire a “good” manager.  Who else is with me?