Hitting the Foul Pole

At this point it seems likely that the Twins brain trust was hoping the All Star break would cure all their perceived ills — namely, the consistently awful play by a significant portion of the roster. Last night’s pathetic showing against the White Sox was just one game, but it was a veritable showcase of the team’s ongoing problems. A starter that can’t get through three innings, a long reliever that can’t find the plate or go long, an offense that can only score when the opposing defense hands them extra outs, and a defense that lets any ball gets past them and plays with a level of urgency that suggests someone else should be out there instead. All of these were issues before the break, and every one of them reared its head in the first game after the break.

I doubt anyone will be able to convince Gardenhire and Bill Smith that actual changes to the roster are needed; in fact, I fear that they think “stay the course” is the way to go. But let’s assume you got their ear … what changes should the Twins make to spark the team and give them the best chance to win some ballgames?

Address the rotation

Liriano has been one of the best pitchers in the majors so far this year,* so the only thing he needs to change is the ridiculously bad support he’s gotten from the defense and bullpen; Pavano has performed as well as could have been hoped, and if he keeps it up the Twins will have gotten well more than their money’s worth by the end of the season. But that’s about all the good things you can say about the rotation this year.

* Yesterday, there was quite the Twitterfight among the Twins blogosphere about Liriano’s status as an “ace.” Nick Nelson led the “Liriano has the best FIP, xFIP, tERA, WAR in the American League and if he didn’t have an absurd .361 BABIP, that would be reflected in his ERA and WHIP and W/L record” side of the argument; Seth Stohs led the “Liriano’s ERA and WHIP don’t meet the requirements for being an Ace, therefore he’s only a Very Good Pitcher” side. Guess who I sided with.

Meanwhile, the rest of the rotation has been an unmitigated disaster for the last two months. Slowey may still be recovering from his wrist injury, or getting accustomed to his newly-diminished stuff; he can only do that with innings, but he’s not going to get those innings if he gets knocked out in the third inning of every start. Baker continues to be inconsistent, and no amount of calling him an Opening Day Starter or giving him a long term contract seems to make a dent in that problem. Blackburn has entered Phase Two of the Carlos Silva Career Path earlier than expected … he probably won’t see any success until he finds his way to the National League. So, what to do?

The number one priority should be to get Blackburn out of the rotation, post haste. As in, yesterday. It barely matters who replaces him, because whoever it is, there’s a good possibility they won’t be the worst pitcher in the league. Thus, upgrade. Fortunately, the Twins happen to have a viable replacement not only on the 40 man roster, but on the 25 man: Brian Duensing is in the bullpen, and he pitches more innings than Blackburn in most of Blackburn’s starts anyway. So put Duensing in the rotation, and the Twins then have “at least a chance” in 20% more of their games. Blackburn, though, would be virtually useless in the bullpen. If the Twins can send him down to the minors and try to completely change his approach on the mound (perhaps emphasizing “don’t throw meaty fastballs over the heart of the plate every single time” for starters), that’d likely be the best option.

Baker and Slowey, though, are tougher nuts to crack. Baker may still be a AAAA guy, but he’s got his contract and his stuff is good enough that he could blow away AAA hitting; we can’t send him down even if we wanted to. Slowey, even with his movement and command out of whack, is probably too good for AAA too; sending him down wouldn’t help his long term recovery. Meanwhile, the Twins don’t have anyone at AAA who could believably do a better job. Unless Bill Smith manages to swing a trade for Oswalt or Haren, Baker and Slowey are probably going to have to remain in the rotation; if we do acquire one of those aces, either Baker or Slowey should go to the bullpen. I think Baker’s stuff would play better in the bullpen, but Baker’s stuff also plays better in the rotation.

Shake up the bullpen

Rauch has performed well, as I expected, when he actually gets into the game. The problem is that he doesn’t get into the game enough; Gardy uses him as a standard Closer, which means he only enters the game in the ninth inning with a three run lead, and those haven’t been coming regularly. While that erases a big chunk of Rauch’s value (namely that he’s demonstrated an ability to throw a ton of quality innings in relief), I don’t think the solution is to use Rauch more often. I think the solution is to get him more save opportunities. And you do that by improving the bullpen in front of them, so it’s legitimately likely that they can protect a lead or keep the team in the game.

For all the insults hurled at Jesse Crain — and the delightfully harsh nickname “Crain Wreck” — he’s been lights out over his last 20-or-so appearances. Whatever he’s doing, he should keep doing it; and, importantly, Gardy should keep using him the same way. Which is to say: he shouldn’t come into a game with men on base, and he shouldn’t be used in day games.

After that, there have been nothing but problems. Guerrier has been really struggling lately, and I think that has a lot to do with overuse. Since Gardy doesn’t (and shouldn’t) trust anyone else in the bullpen, he leans on Guerrier pretty hard. He does this every year, and Guerrier struggles mightily until Gardy gives him a break and then slows down his usage. Guerrier will be fine once the rest of the pen is fixed.

Duensing has done well, but we already talked about him; he should be in the rotation for now.

So that leaves us with “the rest.” Mahay, Burnett, Mijares, and the open spot left by moving Duensing to the rotation and Blackburn to purgatory.

First, Burnett. He had a good run when to start the season, but it seems the league has figured out his smoke-and-mirrors act. Since June 17, he’s pitched in 11 games with a 10.24 ERA, and the Twins have lost all eleven games. He’s giving up a hitting line of .432/.500/.818, he’s given up as many homers as strikeouts, and even more walks. Last night, of course, was more of the same. He shouldn’t be in the majors right now; it’s time to send him down.

Mijares has given up only 5 runs all year, and since May 15 he’s thrown in 19 games with a 1.17 ERA, and the league is hitting .207/.273/.273 against him. I’d say the main problem is that he’s not seeing enough action, but that might be the reason he’s been successful. I still don’t trust him, but when success is so rare, I say don’t mess with it.

Meanwhile, Mahay has seen similar success. He was a disaster from May 15 to June 1, during which time he only appeared in 4 games, but gave up 9 runs. Since then, though, He’s appeared in 15 games with a 1.17 ERA, and the league is hitting .232/.259/.357 against him. There’s not really anything wrong with that, but I don’t think you need a pair of under-utilized LOOGYs in the bullpen, especially when the main problem with your most talented reliever is that you’re using him way too often. If there’s a better option in Rochester, I say Mahay becomes expendable; otherwise, might as well keep him and try to find more chances to use him.

Down at AAA Rochester, the Twins have a few interesting bullpen arms: Anthony Slama, Kyle Waldrop, Rob Delaney, and Pat Neshek.

I’ve been banging the Slama drum for some time now, but it’s worth pointing out that so far this year he’s pitched in 41 games, with a 1.43 ERA in 50.1 IP, racking up 61 K, 24 BB, and has given up just 24 hits. The organization’s knock against him is that he doesn’t have great “stuff” and he needs to work on his control, and a 4.3 BB/9 isn’t great. At the same time, a 10.9 K/9 is great, and a 4.3 H/9 is out of this world. I don’t care if his stuff doesn’t look great to scouts, it apparently looks great to hitters. And he doesn’t need to work on his control as long as his WHIP is under 1.00; nobody can hit him. There simply aren’t any excuses any more. Slama needs to be called up as soon as possible.

Kyle Waldrop is more in the Twins’ preferred mold, a low-K/no-BB guy. In 57.1 IP this year, he has a 2.04 ERA, with 6.1 K/9 (not that good) but a 1.9 BB/9 (awesome). He limits homers even better than Slama (0.3 HR/9 versus Slama’s 0.4 HR/9). Waldrop would be a good option for a middle relief role; certainly better than Burnett.

Delaney has long been Slama’s running mate at the back end of bullpens throughout the Twins’ minor league organization. He’s struggled some this year with hittability; despite an excellent 10.1 K/9 and reasonable 3.0 BB/9, he has a 5.80 ERA and 1.362 WHIP. He has a good arm and a history of high-K success, which is exactly what the Twins need right now, but he’s not performing well enough right now to justify a call-up.

Neshek is still recovering from an injury, and he doesn’t seem ready yet. In his last 10 appearances, he’s given up 9 ER in 13 IP; his 10/3 K/BB ratio isn’t bad, but the fact that he’s given up 15 hits over that span tells me his stuff isn’t moving like it should be. I continue to like Neshek, and I do think he’ll be ready to come back to the Twins at some point this season. Now, though, is not that time.

So my conclusion with the bullpen is to send Burnett down, and fill his and Blackburn’s spots on the roster with Slama and Waldrop. Those two should be able to handle any duty required of them in the 6th-8th innings, which will take a big load off Guerrier’s shoulders and allow him to perform at his normal level.

Without a healthy Nathan/Neshek combo at the end of games, the Twins aren’t going to have the best bullpen in the league. But that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try to improve the unit as much as they can, and these moves do just that.

Adjust the lineup

I don’t care that much about the lineup, but Delmon Young should not be batting at the bottom of the order. Yeah, it’s cute that Dick Bremer likes to call him “the second cleanup hitter,” since he’s batting 8th. But he’s also the second best hitter on the team … and the first best is going on the DL for a while. Delmon simply needs to be moved higher in the lineup.

Meanwhile, Mauer’s power has disappeared. He may be paid like a #3 hitter, but he hits (and supposedly walks) like a #2 hitter. Move Hudson to the bottom of the order — he has been awful at the plate ever since his fateful collision with Span, and having him in front of Punto allows Gardy to get his fix of smallball craziness — and have Mauer batting second, Delmon third, and for now, Thome fourth. Once Morneau returns, Thome can be pushed down to fifth or sixth, depending on how we’re feeling about Cuddyer.

Speaking of Cuddyer, he’s going to need some time off at some point. He’s really been struggling badly, and there’s no reason for him to continue to hit right in the middle of the order as if he’s a dangerous hitter. He can be, when he’s on. But he’s not on, and he’s showing no signs of getting on.

Plus, Span will need more time off as the summer progresses. I’d like to see Repko get some chances, primarily against left-handers. Oh … and when he does, he doesn’t have to bat leadoff.

Cut the dead weight

I’ve already been over the Blackburn/Burnett issues, so those don’t need to be rehashed. But there are a couple other people who shouldn’t ever be on the team, if the Twins have any illusions of trying to contend.

Number one on that list, the veritable Fuhrer of Futility, is Drew Butera. He didn’t hit at AA, he didn’t hit at AAA, and he hasn’t hit in the majors. He has a “reputation” as a good defensive catcher, but I have this feeling that he only has that reputation because he can’t hit at all. Has anyone else noticed that every time he’s behind the plate, the pitching staff gets torched? I mean, that’s been happening fairly regularly anyway, but at some point there’s just no reason to hope it’s a coincidence in order to protect the major-league-minimum paychecks of the worst player on the team. Butera’s got to go, and he should be replaced by Jose Morales, who is an ideal backup catcher for the Twins. He’s a switch hitter who can bat roughly .300, is athletic enough to run when needed, and is actually a good enough player that Mauer could get some rest sometimes. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but he’s been performing badly and complaining about some nagging injuries for a while now, all while he’s catching more innings than anyone else in the league. Something’s got to give.

Meanwhile, Wilson Ramos is the Twins’ catching prospect, and he should be catching every day. He’s not catching every day as long as Morales is sharing duties with him at AAA; Morales, though, is not a prospect. He’s older than Mauer, and is at the point of his career where his value to the Twins is not as part of a trade or in the hope that he develops into a good starter; his value is that he can be one of the best backup catchers in the league for the next 5-6 years for very little salary, and then leave as a 32 year old free agent in 2016 or so.

And while Matt Tolbert isn’t currently on the roster due to a DL stint, he’s worth bringing up right now because I’ve heard rumblings that the Twins want to replace Morneau with Tolbert as their ships pass each other on the causeway to the disabled list. If there’s a more disappointing replacement for Morneau than Tolbert, let me know. We’re talking about replacing the guy leading the AL in WAR with a below-replacement level bat boy. Instead of allowing Tolbert back onto the team, the Twins should use one of their other options at AAA. If they need an infielder, Luke Hughes remains their best option. If they’d like a first baseman, I wouldn’t mind seeing Brock Peterson get a shot.

Oh, and if they need space on the 40 man roster, which they will, just allow me to ask this one question: what team is going to take Matt Tolbert off waivers? The Springfield Isotopes? There’s no chance the Twins lose him on waivers. Which, in my mind, is unfortunate.

Will it even be enough?

Good question. I think it will. At the beginning of the season, the Twins were one of the top three teams in the league despite hitting poorly with men on base. Their division rivals, the Tigers and White Sox, are deeply flawed teams; I think it’s fair to say that the White Sox will not continue to win 26 out of every 31 games, and will fall back to Earth sooner or later. The Tigers have just as significant issues with their rotation as the Twins do, and are relying on Brennan Boesch to continue hitting twice as well in the majors as he did in the minors.

With such easy competition, the Twins shouldn’t need to burn down their house. They just need to throw out some of the unwelcome visitors and get some new blood. It’s still too early to call this a lost season; remember, this is the most talented Twins club in many years, probably since 1991. With just a few adjustments, they should be set to make a serious run.

They just have to make those adjustments.

Your move, Bill Smith.

This entry was posted on Friday, July 16th, 2010 at 10:51 am and is filed under Position Battle, State of the Team. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.