Optimism Shrivels
So far this year, I’ve spent quite a bit of time banging the optimism drum quite a bit; more than most Twins fans and bloggers. There have been two distinct periods so far this season, which have caused somewhat similar consternation among the fan base.
The first period lasted roughly two months, up until the beginning of June. The Twins led the league in OBP, and were in the top three in both runs scored and runs allowed. Their team OBP indicated that they should have been scoring even more runs; they weren’t scoring those runs, though, because of an absurd (and un-Twins-like) failure with runners in scoring position and a historic GIDP-rate. Throughout this period, I insisted that there wasn’t anything to worry about, because OBP is a more stable statistic than hitting with runners in scoring position; the OBP, I thought, ought to remain high as the team started hitting with men on base. Additionally, I thought it was reasonable to expect that the Twins wouldn’t actually shatter the all time record for double plays by 20%.
However, those arguments relied on the Twins maintaining the same approach and weathering the storm. That doesn’t appear to have happened; rather than continue hitting and walking as they had been, the Twins have stopped walking, stopped getting on base, and stopped scoring. Span and Mauer in particular have seen their OBPs fall through the floor, but Delmon Young turned around his early-season walking ways and gone back to swinging freely. The team is now hitting about as well as could be expected with runners on base; unfortunately, there are now many fewer such opportunities.
This sudden change of approach, reverting back to the old Twins Way that Gardenhire is surely most comfortable with, is a mistake. Trying to slash out hits without walking, advancing aggressively on the basepaths, and hitting unusually well with runners in scoring position isn’t supposed to be a viable strategy, though Gardy has shown he can make it work multiple times in the past. The problem is that this season, the roster is absolutely not constructed that way. This team, with Span as its fastest player, with Mauer/Morneau/Kubel/Thome/Cuddyer/Young/Hardy in the lineup, is designed to score runs by getting on base, getting on base, getting on base, and waiting for someone to smack an extra base hit.
Instead, it seems Gardy gave the conventional slugger offense “a chance,” and then went right back to his old ways. It shows in the hitting lines of many players; they’re swinging early in the count, getting behind, swinging defensively, and making outs instead of getting on base. They’re clearly pressing at the plate. It is not working.
Much of my confidence in the Twins this year is based on previous seasons: they always seem to pull together and get into a groove during the summer, ripping off a long winning streak and putting themselves in a strong position for the stretch run. What could be different this time around?
Could it be that Gardy doesn’t know how to play when ahead? When the Twins are behind in the standings, he can use that as a rallying cry and pull the team together. When the Twins happen to be ahead in the standings, regardless of how poorly they’re playing, he can’t seem to see any problems. During the midst of the June collapse, Gardy famously said “We’re in first place!” He has not gotten back to us now that the obvious trends played out shortly afterward, leaving the Twins in third place.
Could it be that there aren’t enough bad/exciting players to inspire the team? Say what you will about Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla, but I’ll say this: the rest of the lineup couldn’t rely on them for anything, but when they happened to do anything they managed to wreak havoc on the opposing team. This year, there are no black holes in the lineup; I naturally assumed that was a good thing, but it seems the players thought they could rely on their teammates to drive them in and, when that didn’t start happening soon enough, stopped waiting and started flailing.
I’m beginning to come to grips with the possibility that these aren’t your older brother’s Twins,* and that we will not be well-served by waiting for things to turn around. Gardy doesn’t know how to manage a team like this (which is probably why he had both Punto and Tolbert in the lineup together so often), and they no longer seem like a team that’s getting bad breaks.
* Wait a minute, I’m the older brother. Whose Twins are these?
This is a team that’s playing badly, swinging like they don’t trust each other, defending like they don’t care, pitching like they don’t know how, and … well, losing.
At this point, I don’t think a midseason move can improve the team enough to matter. The Twins and their fans simply have to hope that whatever Bill Smith does, it’s enough to inspire the team to believe in themselves again. Without that, they’re going nowhere.
Can anyone think of legitimate reasons for optimism any more?
This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 14th, 2010 at 11:08 am and is filed under State of the Team. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
-
rghrbek
-
Ragstoriches
-
Ragstoriches
-
FunBobby
-
FunBobby
-
http://www.mog.com/funoka funoka
-
Ragstoriches
-
Michael B
-
FunBobby
-
FunBobby
-
PedroMunoz
-
FunBobby
-
http://seans-sports.com Sean Schulte
-
FunBobby
-
http://seans-sports.com Sean Schulte
-
FunBobby
-
Ragstoriches
-
FunBobby
-
Ragstoriches