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Optimism Shrivels

So far this year, I’ve spent quite a bit of time banging the optimism drum quite a bit; more than most Twins fans and bloggers. There have been two distinct periods so far this season, which have caused somewhat similar consternation among the fan base.

The first period lasted roughly two months, up until the beginning of June. The Twins led the league in OBP, and were in the top three in both runs scored and runs allowed. Their team OBP indicated that they should have been scoring even more runs; they weren’t scoring those runs, though, because of an absurd (and un-Twins-like) failure with runners in scoring position and a historic GIDP-rate. Throughout this period, I insisted that there wasn’t anything to worry about, because OBP is a more stable statistic than hitting with runners in scoring position; the OBP, I thought, ought to remain high as the team started hitting with men on base. Additionally, I thought it was reasonable to expect that the Twins wouldn’t actually shatter the all time record for double plays by 20%.

However, those arguments relied on the Twins maintaining the same approach and weathering the storm. That doesn’t appear to have happened; rather than continue hitting and walking as they had been, the Twins have stopped walking, stopped getting on base, and stopped scoring. Span and Mauer in particular have seen their OBPs fall through the floor, but Delmon Young turned around his early-season walking ways and gone back to swinging freely. The team is now hitting about as well as could be expected with runners on base; unfortunately, there are now many fewer such opportunities.

This sudden change of approach, reverting back to the old Twins Way that Gardenhire is surely most comfortable with, is a mistake. Trying to slash out hits without walking, advancing aggressively on the basepaths, and hitting unusually well with runners in scoring position isn’t supposed to be a viable strategy, though Gardy has shown he can make it work multiple times in the past. The problem is that this season, the roster is absolutely not constructed that way. This team, with Span as its fastest player, with Mauer/Morneau/Kubel/Thome/Cuddyer/Young/Hardy in the lineup, is designed to score runs by getting on base, getting on base, getting on base, and waiting for someone to smack an extra base hit.

Instead, it seems Gardy gave the conventional slugger offense “a chance,” and then went right back to his old ways. It shows in the hitting lines of many players; they’re swinging early in the count, getting behind, swinging defensively, and making outs instead of getting on base. They’re clearly pressing at the plate. It is not working.

Much of my confidence in the Twins this year is based on previous seasons: they always seem to pull together and get into a groove during the summer, ripping off a long winning streak and putting themselves in a strong position for the stretch run. What could be different this time around?

Could it be that Gardy doesn’t know how to play when ahead? When the Twins are behind in the standings, he can use that as a rallying cry and pull the team together. When the Twins happen to be ahead in the standings, regardless of how poorly they’re playing, he can’t seem to see any problems. During the midst of the June collapse, Gardy famously said “We’re in first place!” He has not gotten back to us now that the obvious trends played out shortly afterward, leaving the Twins in third place.

Could it be that there aren’t enough bad/exciting players to inspire the team? Say what you will about Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla, but I’ll say this: the rest of the lineup couldn’t rely on them for anything, but when they happened to do anything they managed to wreak havoc on the opposing team. This year, there are no black holes in the lineup; I naturally assumed that was a good thing, but it seems the players thought they could rely on their teammates to drive them in and, when that didn’t start happening soon enough, stopped waiting and started flailing.

I’m beginning to come to grips with the possibility that these aren’t your older brother’s Twins,* and that we will not be well-served by waiting for things to turn around. Gardy doesn’t know how to manage a team like this (which is probably why he had both Punto and Tolbert in the lineup together so often), and they no longer seem like a team that’s getting bad breaks.

* Wait a minute, I’m the older brother. Whose Twins are these?

This is a team that’s playing badly, swinging like they don’t trust each other, defending like they don’t care, pitching like they don’t know how, and … well, losing.

At this point, I don’t think a midseason move can improve the team enough to matter. The Twins and their fans simply have to hope that whatever Bill Smith does, it’s enough to inspire the team to believe in themselves again. Without that, they’re going nowhere.

Can anyone think of legitimate reasons for optimism any more?

  • rghrbek

    Great post.

    I feel as you do, there are not many, if any reasons for optimism.

    In addition to the bad fielding (which we predicted, in the outfield), and the terrible starting pitching recently, the lineup instills no confidence.

    If the DPs are still happening because we are leading the AL in on base, then fine, that’s going to happen with a terribly slow lineup. But they are continuing, as you pointed out, with our squad tanking it, when it comes to on base%.

    I feel like Gardy has lost touch a bit, on the feel of a lineup, or how to ride someone who is hot. As Gleeman points out in today’s post, the fact Cuddy is batting 5th and 6th is silly. He cannot hit RHP. So Gardy puts him at 3b to keep his favorite, overpaid player on the roster, every day without a break. Heck, I would argue, that Punto’s value as a 3b fielder, and his decent on base% over the last month +, means he provides more value than Cuddy.

    Young may soon come back to earth with his crazy swinging tendencies back, but the fact he is not farther up in the lineup to break up the lefty log jam is shameful. Kubel has never hit lefties well, but yet Gardy bats 3 in a row if there is a rhp starting, just cuz.

    Hardy, although a significant upgrade at SS over Punto, has a .235 on base %, since he has come back from injury. His problems from last year have not been fixed. He is slow and a black hole in every sense, as it pertains to the lineup.

    If Span and Mauer can’t get it together, this team has no hope, regardless of what our pitching does (we’ve got lots of AL central games, so they should get better).

    Plus we all hope Morneau is ok and back in the lineup….we need that.

    Finally, I am not a big Gardy fan. I think with the high expectations, and this team under achieving, we will see more meltdowns from him, ridiculous emotional statements, and him sticking with certain players while refusing to mix things up to put a jolt into a team, that seems to be dieing a slow death.

    I know, I know, this is really negative. But the post asked if there were legitimate reasons for optimism?

  • Ragstoriches

    Well, in terms of our chances in the division, I don’t believe the Tigers and Sox are anything special. Detroit worries me the most, but I still like the Twins to win the division. Beyond that, though, little hope for this year to be any different than the rest under Gardy.

    So Gardy. I’ve never considered him a particularly great manager, mostly because his in-game decisions can be baffling sometimes (as well as his love affair with Nick Punto). But, you know, up until recently he hasn’t had much to work with. The Twins were a small market team. The organization was trying to stay afloat, not win the World Series. He seemed like a good manager for the “underdog” role.

    Now, though, the Twins aren’t a small market team. They are loaded with talent. They should win the division. He can’t play the underdog card anymore. And you’re right, Sean, he doesn’t know how to manage this sort of club. I tend to think when managers get fired the blame is unfairly distributed to them, but in this instance I think Gardy has been a large part of the problem in the first half. His Sunday lineups have been widely criticized, as has his stubbornness with Blacky, but it’s some of the intangibles that really bother me. They seem to lack passion, energy, a real desire to win. A killer instinct. They can’t put teams away (both within games and within series). They do not play well from behind – how many comeback wins to they have? Last at-bat wins? They still seem to play with that meek little-engine-that-could attitude, and I think it all stems from Gardy. We’re getting unlucky, it’s okay…we’re banged up, it’s okay…well, can’t win every series, at least we tried…

    I just don’t think the Twins can win a Series under Gardy. I know they’ll never can him, no matter what happens (in this way the front office mirrors Gardy, or vice versa). I do think he’s becoming a bigger problem though, and I’m left to wonder how this team would be doing with a Leyland or LaRussa behind the bench.

  • Ragstoriches

    This was a great post, by the way, thanks.

  • FunBobby

    I agree that it appears to be more of an attitude thing than a “talent” thing. (outside of Blackburn, dude flat out can’t pitch). The lineup is talented, and I don’t think there is a major roster move I would make regarding the starting 9, they just need to get their act together. Whose job is that? As far as I know, its the manager’s. I think the bullpen can be fixed with pieces in the minors and a little bit of addition by subtraction. The rotation can be improved (not necessarily fixed) by more of the same. Getting Blackburn the hell out of there. I think it bothers me that Gardy isn’t, to the best of my knowledge, breaking down Bill Smith’s door screaming for help in the starting rotation. I feel that most good managers (Monty Burns included) will tell their GM “Hey, we need some outside help in the rotation”. and the GM will do his best to make that happen. I don’t see Gardy doing that. Does anyone else?

  • FunBobby

    also, if you are looking for someone to make you angrier than Gardy, look no further

    http://deadspin.com/5586984/when-gary-carter-gets-into-it-with-a-child-you-know-securitys-going-to-get-involved

    what kind of douche acts like that in front of his children?

  • http://www.mog.com/funoka funoka

    I am still optimistic. Detroit and the Chisox are flawed. And the Twins have plenty of games left against Chicago. We need our pitchers to start getting out of the first inning and the batter to quit hitting into double plays — the bad luck streak the team has been on since the end of May cannot continue, can it?

  • Ragstoriches

    I just read that Placido Polanco is outslugging Mauer. Ouch.

  • Michael B

    Thanks for a great post. On the other hand, isn’t this just another Minnesota Twins season? I mean, pretty much every season over the past five years or so, we’ve reached a point midsummer where things looked hopeless, and then they somehow managed to crawl back into it (and then a few weeks later it looks hopeless again and we start the whole cycle over again, repeatedly, until we sneak up to steal the division title–and get stomped by the Yankees in the play offs). Welcome to hopelessness version 1.0, 2010 Twins. I wonder if we’ll take a single game from the Damn Yankees in the postseason this time around?

  • FunBobby

    The only difference is we were one of the best teams in the AL in april and may. So we have seen what this team can do, they just aren’t doing it. Whether its lack of motivation, flash in the pan success (think Nick Blackburn in May), or a combination of a million differen things.

  • FunBobby

    The only difference is we were one of the best teams in the AL in april and may. So we have seen what this team can do, they just aren’t doing it. Whether its lack of motivation, flash in the pan success (think Nick Blackburn in May), or a combination of a million different things.

  • PedroMunoz

    Is Hardy the new Crede?

  • FunBobby

    I’m not really sure what that means. Considering Hardy is younger, plays a different position, and doesn’t have chronic back problems. They are both white, left side infielders? So are Troy Tulowitzki and Evan Longora.

  • http://seans-sports.com Sean Schulte

    I suppose Hardy is another injured disappointment, at least thus far.

    But his skills haven’t eroded, and he’s not old. And like FunBobby said, he doesn’t have back problems, which are a whole different thing.

    I don’t think it’s totally unreasonable to think Hardy might have a better second half than first half; if he doesn’t, though, the Twins are going to need to get lucky with an amazing few months out of at least one other guy to make up for it.

  • FunBobby

    I don’t think Crede was ever a disappointment. Was anyone shocked when he went on the DL with a back problem? I certainly hope not. It was a near certainty that Crede was going to have trouble staying on the field, most likely due to his ailing back. And shocker, that is iexactly what happened.

  • http://seans-sports.com Sean Schulte

    Well, I was kind of hoping Crede would be able to fill in and produce reasonably well; but he posted an 83 OPS+ in just 90 games, while posting a .289 OBP … maybe my expectations were unreasonable, but I was pretty disappointed.

    I think it’s fair to be disappointed when your free agent signing spends half the year on the DL, and the other half posts the second-worst season of his career and then turns out to be so bad that nobody is willing to entertain signing him that offseason.

  • FunBobby

    Optimism…….gone.

  • Ragstoriches

    Can someone please tell me why Slowey started this game? I guess it doesn’t really matter which game of the series he’s terrible in, and even left this terrible outing with the club in the lead. But we’re going to come out of the break in a big series with…Kevin F&#@ing Slowey? More importantly, though, why for the love of all things holy is Nick Blackburn pitching Sunday? He shouldn’t be pitching for this club period, but if the powers that be insists on keeping him around because he’s a nice guy, why pitch him ahead of Baker?

    Not that Baker isn’t capable of Blacky-esque “pitching” as well, but jeez. Speaks volumes for what the Twins think of Baker right now I guess. He must not be as nice or try as hard as Blacky.

  • FunBobby

    He complained of elbow sorness about a week ago, so they are giving him extra days. It has nothing to do with what they think of his pitching ability.

  • Ragstoriches

    Did his complaint happen to immediately follow a crappy start?

    Of course it has noting to do with his ability, very little the Twins do depends on things like ability.

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