Hitting the Foul Pole

Lately Bill Smith has been making solid moves to bolster the Twins’ chances at a playoff run this year, making it difficult for reasonable fans to criticize him without celestial bodies aligning to bring about an unforeseen situation that would require far more bullpen arms than even Wild Bill would be able to acquire.

Well, there must have been a syzygy of some sort last night, because last night’s 13 inning half-marathon showed just how frayed are the seams of the Twins’ bullpen. Coming into the game, Matt Capps and Brian Fuentes were known to be unavailable — Capps had just pitched two consecutive days, and Fuentes has a bad back for some reason.

So let’s take a look at what happened, shall we?

• Scott Baker pitched just two innings before leaving with elbow tendinitis — his return is unknown.
• Manship pitched well, leaving with a 3 run lead.
• Rauch pitched well too, leaving with a 4 run lead through 7 innings.
• Flores came in, despite the fact that he’d pitched in two consecutive games — but he’s not a Closer, so his arm doesn’t need to be protected. He got one out and gave up one hit, and his night was done after 7 pitches.
• Guerrier came in,* despite the fact that he’d pitched in two consecutive games — but he’s not a Closer, so his arm doesn’t need to be protected. He’s also been struggling through one of his patented dead-arm periods (which he got because he’s been pitching way too often). He got lit up, and by the time he left, the lead was gone.
• Crain came in, despite the fact that he’d pitched in two consecutive games — but he’s not a Closer, so his arm doesn’t need to be protected. He’s pitched well lately, but if there’s one thing Gardy loves doing to a guy who’s pitching well, it’s ride him until his arm falls off. So enjoy that, Crain. Oh, and Crain gave up a home run, and the last Twins lead of the night was gone.
• Having exhausted all the available options in the bullpen, the Twins went with the only strategy that made sense. Continuing to preserve a veteran Closer at the expense of young starters! Duensing came in despite having pitched on Tuesday. One day’s rest, baby! That’s never turned into a long term problem for a team in the past!
• Then they needed another pitcher, so finally they brought in — no, wait, never mind. They didn’t go to Capps. Instead, they went with Friday night’s starter, Nick Blackburn, who mercifully lost the game.

* Scott Ullger was managing at for the late innings, because Gardy had been ejected earlier in the game by Joe West, who continues to be very adamant that nobody can question any of his myriad terrible calls. I’m guessing Ullger was thinking, “What would Gardy do in this situation? I know! Put in Guerrier!” It worked about as well as you’d have guessed.

So the Twins managed to keep Fuentes and Capps out of the game, preserving the health of their pair of mercenary Closers at the expense of everyone else on the pitching staff, who have also been dramatically overworked in recent days. And if you noticed a pattern up there, I wouldn’t call you crazy. It seems like every pitcher in the bullpen has been used in every game — Gardy must have heard about this newfound vaunted bullpen depth, and forgot that it doesn’t really matter whether you have 3 guys or 8 guys if they’re all exhausted all the time. But it didn’t have to be this way, Smithers; no, it didn’t have to be this way at all.

Apparently, Gardy had been “begging” Bill Smith for bullpen help, made possible by the September 1 roster expansion. I don’t know exactly why Smith was reticent to do it, but here are two possibilities:

Possibility The First: Gardy said he’d been trying to get ahold of him for the last two days. So maybe Smith is simply incommunicado. If true, that’s pretty bad.

Possibility The Second: Bill Smith is waiting until the Rochester Red Wings season is over before taking away their most talented relievers. (I saw this a few days ago, but can’t find the link to it right now. Damn internet.) If this is true, and Smith values AAA wins as much as he values MLB-pennant-race wins, that’s really bad.

So basically, there wasn’t any excuse not to have more relievers in the bullpen. At least Slama and Burnett, maybe Perkins and Neshek and Swarzak. There are warm bodies waiting in AAA, and they could have been out in the bullpen last night if Bill Smith had called for them.

And, because Blackburn was wasted in relief the night before his scheduled start, the Twins needed to find another starter for Friday night. Who should they go with? Pavano? No, they won’t move him up a day. Swarzak? Too bad, he started on Wednesday. Perkins? Too bad, he pitched two innings in relief on Thursday.

Say hello to your Friday night starter: Matt Fox.

Who the hell is that?, I hear you asking. Well, good question. The Twins drafted him in the 1st round back in 2004, and here are his AAA numbers this year: 123 IP, 3.95 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 9.1 H/9, 1.2 HR/9. For what it’s worth, every single one of those peripherals has trended in the wrong direction at each level throughout the minors. His stuff just doesn’t play at the upper levels.

Put another way, Anthony Swarzak’s AAA numbers look like this: 231.1 IP, 4.28 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 10.0 H/9, 0.8 HR/9. So Fox has performed better than Swarzak, but Swarzak’s just 24 and still a prospect — Fox is 27 and on the brink of not being a prospect any more.

Matt Fox is 27 years old, doesn’t have much in the way of stuff, doesn’t have a track record of good performance in the minors, and is pretty clearly not a prospect. Good for him for making it to the majors.

But it took a whole lot of random, disconnected events all converging at once to get him this chance. Even if he makes the most of it, he probably won’t stick around.

So hopefully he enjoys himself while he’s here.

And hopefully Bill Smith has learned that he should never let this happen again.

Sorry for the complete lack of postings lately, both of us have been very busy.  I just got back from Vegas and was on the opposite side of the same hotel Paris Hilton was in when she got arrested for coke possession.  So that’s cool. 

All season long it seems Austin Jackson and Neftali Feliz have been getting all the AL ROY hype, well they better make room for Danny Valencia.

Valencia was called up a few months back when Cuddyer had to go on the bereavement list, and it was expected that he wouldn’t stick around.  He has been touted as the Twins thirdbaseman of the future, despite being not much more than a decent hitter, and average fielder in the minors.  Ever since Gardy installed him as the regular 3B in the middle of the summer he has been white hot.  After his walk-off single last night he is hitting a nifty 332/375/447 in 224 plate appearances.  He has played a very solid third base, showing good range, and a great arm.  His UZR/150 is 24.7, but that is next to meaningless due to the ever present “small sample size”.

Detroit Tigers CF Austin Jackson is one of the other leading ROY candidates.  Along with playing spectacular defense in center, as witnessed last night, he is hitting 305/357/408 in 547 plate appearances.  While not as good as Valencia, he has had over twice as many PAs.  That might be enough to sway voters.  While Valencia plays solid, steady defense, Jackson provides more highlight reel catches. 

Feliz has been excellent closing games for the first place Rangers this year. He has notched 34 saves. His ERA isn’t sparkling, 3.26, and it is right in line with his FIP (3.28).  His strikeout rate is good, 9.16, but I like to see closers hit the double digits there.  His WHIP is under 1.00, which is always good. 

If you held a gun to my head, I’d probably pick Jackson since he has been performing at a high level since day one.  Although the Twins and Rangers being in playoff contention in September certainly gives Valencia and Feliz bonus points.  I don’t think the Twins would be in first place without Valencia’s contributions.

What does everyone else think?

Random musings from last night’s victory:

The first walkoff hit in the entire history of storied Target Field was last night. A prodigious two run blast by White Sox castoff (and future hall of famer, good roster management Ozzie) sealed the victory for the Twins.

Minnesota had some shaky pitching between starter Scott Baker, Closer Matt Capps, and ex-Closer Jon Rauch. This was not encouraging. As awesome as it was to see Thome launch a 450 foot blast onto the plaza, and then get a shaving cream pie in the face from Rauch, a shaky starter and bullpen had be worried. Capps is still leaps and bounds better than Rauch, and I will feel confident if Gardy puts him in to close out a ballgame tonight.

Does anyone else have zero confidence in Baker right now? I know he was impressive against the Rays two starts ago, but his last two have been very bad. Is this someone you want starting in the playoffs? Essentially throwing a reliever out there who is a crapshoot? I do not. Granted we have to GET to the playoffs first, and that is no guarantee. We have seven games left against Texas, including four in Arlington. Those certainly won’t be a cakewalk. We have three left in Chicago, out side of those ten games nothing on the schedule really has me shaking in my boots. If I were to wear boots.

I hate to me Mr. Negative after such an awesome win, but I think it is always important to remember where we were last year (6.5 out of first, in third place) and keep in mind that a team can get white hot for five weeks and do anything. We can’t take our foot off the pedal here, kick them while they are down, etc.

Last night Liriano struggled a bit — but those struggles merely highlight why he’s having a better year than you’d think based on a glance at his superficial numbers.

Sure, he loaded the bases three times. But do you remember how he gave up his only run? On a squib-shot off the end of the bat of Pierzynski that went foul down the third baseline, spinning wildly to the left, which somehow managed to take an abrupt right turn and die in the grass in fair territory.

In other cases, the bases got loaded up when Delmon Young dropped a line drive that was basically right at him and Valencia made a bad throw to first on an attempted sacrifice bunt. How did he handle that one? By inducing an easy grounder back to himself which he threw home for a double play — but Mauer didn’t throw to first. So how did he handle that? By striking out Konerko and Quentin in impressive fashion to escape the inning unscathed.

It’d be easy for Liriano to fail in these situations, when his teammates aren’t giving him any help. But it’s a sign of a good, mature pitcher who can overcome that sort of adversity. He may not have racked up the strikeouts or gone deep into the game, but he showed what can only be called “grit.”

You may not be impressed by his 3.26 ERA, but what about his league-leading 2.14 FIP? Here’s an awesome little list of the league leaders in FIP over the last ten years:

• 2009: Zack Greinke (2.33)*
• 2008: Tim Lincecum (2.59)*
• 2007: Jake Peavy (2.84)*
• 2006: Johan Santana (3.04)*
• 2005: Johan Santana (2.80)
• 2004: Randy Johnson (2.30)
• 2003: Pedro Martinez (2.21)
• 2002: Pedro Martinez (2.24)
• 2001: Randy Johnson (2.22)*
• 2000: Pedro Martinez (2.17)*

* Cy Young Award winners

So … yeah. Leading the league in FIP tends to indicate that you’re a great pitcher having a great season.

And I think it’s worth pointing out that Liriano’s FIP is lower than all of those.

Francisco Liriano is one of the best pitchers in the league this season; if his defense would give him any sort of support (his league-high .349 BABIP indicates that they’re not), he’d have a lower ERA and would be able to pitch deeper into games, which would convince people that he’s actually doing well.

But you don’t need that to be convinced, do you?

Please join us tonight for a live blog of game two of the Twins-White Sox series. We’ll get started right around 7pm central time. Sean has the pleasure of watching the White Sox broadcast so he will be able to fill us in on the musings of Hawk Harrellson. So sit back, relax, and strap it down……Or something like that.

So, the Twins are in first place.  Thanks to Brian Roberts.  So we enter the first of two August series with the White Sox tied for first place.  We have to remember, it is still only August.  Even if we lose two of three, we’re only a game out.  If we sweep we are only three games up, etc.  Obviously every game from here on out is very important, but I fully expect my twitter feed to blow up with “the sky is falling” comments every time a reliever puts a man on base. Trust me, this will be annoying, and I will probably be a little guilty of it too.  So everyone, relax. 

I’m not too thrilled about Perkins starting on Wednesday, but I have no problem with Pavano or Liriano asking for an extra day. They have both been studs, and deserve a little extra rest in order to continue being studs down the stretch.  The White Sox are throwing Garcia/Danks/Floyd, which is pretty good for them.  We counter with Baker/Perkins/Liriano.  Outside of Liriano I have no idea what to expect.  As we all know Baker is a Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde pitcher, and Perkins has been hit or miss in AAA.  Thankfully the Sox lineup isn’t much better than your average AAA team.

We will be repeating these exact same steps next week, with an off day monday followed by a three game series against Chicago.  So to quote Hawk Harrellson, “sit back, relax and strap it down”.  

You know, I never understood what he meant by that.  Strap what down? Apparently he has a new catchphrase,  “don’t stop now, boys”. So those of you who get to/have to watch the White Sox broadcast look out for it, and tell me if it ever fits into the context of the game.  I can’t imagine it ever does.  

Also, Sean has put together the old FireGardy.com archives into a downloadble kindle product on amazon, so if you feel like shelling out $2.99 to read it on your Kindles, head over to amazon and download it.

Delmon Young has been white hot.  But you all know that.  Out west (actually, south) Josh Hamilton of the Rangers has been equally hot.  Literally. Their numbers in July are shockingly close.  Let’s take a look:

The only places Delmon has a noticble advantage  are batting average and RBI.  These are from ESPN, so forgive their basic-ness, but I think it’s best to use these for any discussion, because I can’t see AL sportswriters delving any deeper.  Another factor we have to consider is probably team record during the month of July.  Now, why this would have any bearing on an INDIVIDUAL award is beyond me, but we all now that is how it works.  Surprise! Both teams are 11-11 as of this morning.

While a player of the month award for July couldn’t get much less important, I just find it interesting how well, and similar, these two guys have been playing.  Delmon is probably still considered a “bad apple” by many, and Hamilton will probably always been a “feel good story”.  So, we’ll have to see if one of these two guys (or teams) can distinguish themselves from the other over the next few days.  What does everyone else think?

Danny Haren was tradedto the Angels last night for a pretty underwhelming package of Joe Saunders, Patrick Corbin, Rafael Rodriguez and Tyler Skaggs (Skaggs was announced this morning, he was originally a PTBNL).   This probably leaves many Twins fans angry that Smith didn’t make a better push (or a push at all) to acquire Haren.  While he hasn’t been very good since the first half of 09, he is still a frontline starter.  John Bonnes at TwinsCentric wrote why he thinks Haren’s contract isn’t as reasonable as everyone seems to think.  I tend to agree with him, but since Haren is under contract until 2013 we could have used him this year and traded him in the offseason for a pretty decent return (especially if he had a strong august and september).  One of the reasons I read for the DBacks trading him for so little, is they were afraid he wasn’t going to rebound to his 07-09 form.  Much like the Rays had to do with Scott Kazmir.  Turns out the rays were right about Kazmir, but I don’t think the DBacks will be write about Haren.  He is 29, and doesn’t have an injury history like Kazmir does. 

Hopefully this doesn’t mean the Twins will just go out and sign Jarrod Washburn, since he sucks and we already have one crappy pitcher whose name ends in -burn.  Why do we need another?  Ted Lilly is still available, and I expect the Twins to pursue him pretty aggressively, only to not get him.  Not that I want him.  I also hope that Smith doesn’t assume the rotation problem is fixed because of one non-terrible trip through it.  Yes, everyone has pitched well in their most recent start, but that doesn’t mean we can expect Baker and Slowey to be consistently good down the stretch. 

Who else is out there that you would like to see the Twins go after?  Are you as deathly afraid of Lilly as I am?

At this point it seems likely that the Twins brain trust was hoping the All Star break would cure all their perceived ills — namely, the consistently awful play by a significant portion of the roster. Last night’s pathetic showing against the White Sox was just one game, but it was a veritable showcase of the team’s ongoing problems. A starter that can’t get through three innings, a long reliever that can’t find the plate or go long, an offense that can only score when the opposing defense hands them extra outs, and a defense that lets any ball gets past them and plays with a level of urgency that suggests someone else should be out there instead. All of these were issues before the break, and every one of them reared its head in the first game after the break.

I doubt anyone will be able to convince Gardenhire and Bill Smith that actual changes to the roster are needed; in fact, I fear that they think “stay the course” is the way to go. But let’s assume you got their ear … what changes should the Twins make to spark the team and give them the best chance to win some ballgames?

Address the rotation

Liriano has been one of the best pitchers in the majors so far this year,* so the only thing he needs to change is the ridiculously bad support he’s gotten from the defense and bullpen; Pavano has performed as well as could have been hoped, and if he keeps it up the Twins will have gotten well more than their money’s worth by the end of the season. But that’s about all the good things you can say about the rotation this year.

* Yesterday, there was quite the Twitterfight among the Twins blogosphere about Liriano’s status as an “ace.” Nick Nelson led the “Liriano has the best FIP, xFIP, tERA, WAR in the American League and if he didn’t have an absurd .361 BABIP, that would be reflected in his ERA and WHIP and W/L record” side of the argument; Seth Stohs led the “Liriano’s ERA and WHIP don’t meet the requirements for being an Ace, therefore he’s only a Very Good Pitcher” side. Guess who I sided with.

Meanwhile, the rest of the rotation has been an unmitigated disaster for the last two months. Slowey may still be recovering from his wrist injury, or getting accustomed to his newly-diminished stuff; he can only do that with innings, but he’s not going to get those innings if he gets knocked out in the third inning of every start. Baker continues to be inconsistent, and no amount of calling him an Opening Day Starter or giving him a long term contract seems to make a dent in that problem. Blackburn has entered Phase Two of the Carlos Silva Career Path earlier than expected … he probably won’t see any success until he finds his way to the National League. So, what to do?

The number one priority should be to get Blackburn out of the rotation, post haste. As in, yesterday. It barely matters who replaces him, because whoever it is, there’s a good possibility they won’t be the worst pitcher in the league. Thus, upgrade. Fortunately, the Twins happen to have a viable replacement not only on the 40 man roster, but on the 25 man: Brian Duensing is in the bullpen, and he pitches more innings than Blackburn in most of Blackburn’s starts anyway. So put Duensing in the rotation, and the Twins then have “at least a chance” in 20% more of their games. Blackburn, though, would be virtually useless in the bullpen. If the Twins can send him down to the minors and try to completely change his approach on the mound (perhaps emphasizing “don’t throw meaty fastballs over the heart of the plate every single time” for starters), that’d likely be the best option.

Baker and Slowey, though, are tougher nuts to crack. Baker may still be a AAAA guy, but he’s got his contract and his stuff is good enough that he could blow away AAA hitting; we can’t send him down even if we wanted to. Slowey, even with his movement and command out of whack, is probably too good for AAA too; sending him down wouldn’t help his long term recovery. Meanwhile, the Twins don’t have anyone at AAA who could believably do a better job. Unless Bill Smith manages to swing a trade for Oswalt or Haren, Baker and Slowey are probably going to have to remain in the rotation; if we do acquire one of those aces, either Baker or Slowey should go to the bullpen. I think Baker’s stuff would play better in the bullpen, but Baker’s stuff also plays better in the rotation.

Shake up the bullpen

Rauch has performed well, as I expected, when he actually gets into the game. The problem is that he doesn’t get into the game enough; Gardy uses him as a standard Closer, which means he only enters the game in the ninth inning with a three run lead, and those haven’t been coming regularly. While that erases a big chunk of Rauch’s value (namely that he’s demonstrated an ability to throw a ton of quality innings in relief), I don’t think the solution is to use Rauch more often. I think the solution is to get him more save opportunities. And you do that by improving the bullpen in front of them, so it’s legitimately likely that they can protect a lead or keep the team in the game.

For all the insults hurled at Jesse Crain — and the delightfully harsh nickname “Crain Wreck” — he’s been lights out over his last 20-or-so appearances. Whatever he’s doing, he should keep doing it; and, importantly, Gardy should keep using him the same way. Which is to say: he shouldn’t come into a game with men on base, and he shouldn’t be used in day games.

After that, there have been nothing but problems. Guerrier has been really struggling lately, and I think that has a lot to do with overuse. Since Gardy doesn’t (and shouldn’t) trust anyone else in the bullpen, he leans on Guerrier pretty hard. He does this every year, and Guerrier struggles mightily until Gardy gives him a break and then slows down his usage. Guerrier will be fine once the rest of the pen is fixed.

Duensing has done well, but we already talked about him; he should be in the rotation for now.

So that leaves us with “the rest.” Mahay, Burnett, Mijares, and the open spot left by moving Duensing to the rotation and Blackburn to purgatory.

First, Burnett. He had a good run when to start the season, but it seems the league has figured out his smoke-and-mirrors act. Since June 17, he’s pitched in 11 games with a 10.24 ERA, and the Twins have lost all eleven games. He’s giving up a hitting line of .432/.500/.818, he’s given up as many homers as strikeouts, and even more walks. Last night, of course, was more of the same. He shouldn’t be in the majors right now; it’s time to send him down.

Mijares has given up only 5 runs all year, and since May 15 he’s thrown in 19 games with a 1.17 ERA, and the league is hitting .207/.273/.273 against him. I’d say the main problem is that he’s not seeing enough action, but that might be the reason he’s been successful. I still don’t trust him, but when success is so rare, I say don’t mess with it.

Meanwhile, Mahay has seen similar success. He was a disaster from May 15 to June 1, during which time he only appeared in 4 games, but gave up 9 runs. Since then, though, He’s appeared in 15 games with a 1.17 ERA, and the league is hitting .232/.259/.357 against him. There’s not really anything wrong with that, but I don’t think you need a pair of under-utilized LOOGYs in the bullpen, especially when the main problem with your most talented reliever is that you’re using him way too often. If there’s a better option in Rochester, I say Mahay becomes expendable; otherwise, might as well keep him and try to find more chances to use him.

Down at AAA Rochester, the Twins have a few interesting bullpen arms: Anthony Slama, Kyle Waldrop, Rob Delaney, and Pat Neshek.

I’ve been banging the Slama drum for some time now, but it’s worth pointing out that so far this year he’s pitched in 41 games, with a 1.43 ERA in 50.1 IP, racking up 61 K, 24 BB, and has given up just 24 hits. The organization’s knock against him is that he doesn’t have great “stuff” and he needs to work on his control, and a 4.3 BB/9 isn’t great. At the same time, a 10.9 K/9 is great, and a 4.3 H/9 is out of this world. I don’t care if his stuff doesn’t look great to scouts, it apparently looks great to hitters. And he doesn’t need to work on his control as long as his WHIP is under 1.00; nobody can hit him. There simply aren’t any excuses any more. Slama needs to be called up as soon as possible.

Kyle Waldrop is more in the Twins’ preferred mold, a low-K/no-BB guy. In 57.1 IP this year, he has a 2.04 ERA, with 6.1 K/9 (not that good) but a 1.9 BB/9 (awesome). He limits homers even better than Slama (0.3 HR/9 versus Slama’s 0.4 HR/9). Waldrop would be a good option for a middle relief role; certainly better than Burnett.

Delaney has long been Slama’s running mate at the back end of bullpens throughout the Twins’ minor league organization. He’s struggled some this year with hittability; despite an excellent 10.1 K/9 and reasonable 3.0 BB/9, he has a 5.80 ERA and 1.362 WHIP. He has a good arm and a history of high-K success, which is exactly what the Twins need right now, but he’s not performing well enough right now to justify a call-up.

Neshek is still recovering from an injury, and he doesn’t seem ready yet. In his last 10 appearances, he’s given up 9 ER in 13 IP; his 10/3 K/BB ratio isn’t bad, but the fact that he’s given up 15 hits over that span tells me his stuff isn’t moving like it should be. I continue to like Neshek, and I do think he’ll be ready to come back to the Twins at some point this season. Now, though, is not that time.

So my conclusion with the bullpen is to send Burnett down, and fill his and Blackburn’s spots on the roster with Slama and Waldrop. Those two should be able to handle any duty required of them in the 6th-8th innings, which will take a big load off Guerrier’s shoulders and allow him to perform at his normal level.

Without a healthy Nathan/Neshek combo at the end of games, the Twins aren’t going to have the best bullpen in the league. But that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try to improve the unit as much as they can, and these moves do just that.

Adjust the lineup

I don’t care that much about the lineup, but Delmon Young should not be batting at the bottom of the order. Yeah, it’s cute that Dick Bremer likes to call him “the second cleanup hitter,” since he’s batting 8th. But he’s also the second best hitter on the team … and the first best is going on the DL for a while. Delmon simply needs to be moved higher in the lineup.

Meanwhile, Mauer’s power has disappeared. He may be paid like a #3 hitter, but he hits (and supposedly walks) like a #2 hitter. Move Hudson to the bottom of the order — he has been awful at the plate ever since his fateful collision with Span, and having him in front of Punto allows Gardy to get his fix of smallball craziness — and have Mauer batting second, Delmon third, and for now, Thome fourth. Once Morneau returns, Thome can be pushed down to fifth or sixth, depending on how we’re feeling about Cuddyer.

Speaking of Cuddyer, he’s going to need some time off at some point. He’s really been struggling badly, and there’s no reason for him to continue to hit right in the middle of the order as if he’s a dangerous hitter. He can be, when he’s on. But he’s not on, and he’s showing no signs of getting on.

Plus, Span will need more time off as the summer progresses. I’d like to see Repko get some chances, primarily against left-handers. Oh … and when he does, he doesn’t have to bat leadoff.

Cut the dead weight

I’ve already been over the Blackburn/Burnett issues, so those don’t need to be rehashed. But there are a couple other people who shouldn’t ever be on the team, if the Twins have any illusions of trying to contend.

Number one on that list, the veritable Fuhrer of Futility, is Drew Butera. He didn’t hit at AA, he didn’t hit at AAA, and he hasn’t hit in the majors. He has a “reputation” as a good defensive catcher, but I have this feeling that he only has that reputation because he can’t hit at all. Has anyone else noticed that every time he’s behind the plate, the pitching staff gets torched? I mean, that’s been happening fairly regularly anyway, but at some point there’s just no reason to hope it’s a coincidence in order to protect the major-league-minimum paychecks of the worst player on the team. Butera’s got to go, and he should be replaced by Jose Morales, who is an ideal backup catcher for the Twins. He’s a switch hitter who can bat roughly .300, is athletic enough to run when needed, and is actually a good enough player that Mauer could get some rest sometimes. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but he’s been performing badly and complaining about some nagging injuries for a while now, all while he’s catching more innings than anyone else in the league. Something’s got to give.

Meanwhile, Wilson Ramos is the Twins’ catching prospect, and he should be catching every day. He’s not catching every day as long as Morales is sharing duties with him at AAA; Morales, though, is not a prospect. He’s older than Mauer, and is at the point of his career where his value to the Twins is not as part of a trade or in the hope that he develops into a good starter; his value is that he can be one of the best backup catchers in the league for the next 5-6 years for very little salary, and then leave as a 32 year old free agent in 2016 or so.

And while Matt Tolbert isn’t currently on the roster due to a DL stint, he’s worth bringing up right now because I’ve heard rumblings that the Twins want to replace Morneau with Tolbert as their ships pass each other on the causeway to the disabled list. If there’s a more disappointing replacement for Morneau than Tolbert, let me know. We’re talking about replacing the guy leading the AL in WAR with a below-replacement level bat boy. Instead of allowing Tolbert back onto the team, the Twins should use one of their other options at AAA. If they need an infielder, Luke Hughes remains their best option. If they’d like a first baseman, I wouldn’t mind seeing Brock Peterson get a shot.

Oh, and if they need space on the 40 man roster, which they will, just allow me to ask this one question: what team is going to take Matt Tolbert off waivers? The Springfield Isotopes? There’s no chance the Twins lose him on waivers. Which, in my mind, is unfortunate.

Will it even be enough?

Good question. I think it will. At the beginning of the season, the Twins were one of the top three teams in the league despite hitting poorly with men on base. Their division rivals, the Tigers and White Sox, are deeply flawed teams; I think it’s fair to say that the White Sox will not continue to win 26 out of every 31 games, and will fall back to Earth sooner or later. The Tigers have just as significant issues with their rotation as the Twins do, and are relying on Brennan Boesch to continue hitting twice as well in the majors as he did in the minors.

With such easy competition, the Twins shouldn’t need to burn down their house. They just need to throw out some of the unwelcome visitors and get some new blood. It’s still too early to call this a lost season; remember, this is the most talented Twins club in many years, probably since 1991. With just a few adjustments, they should be set to make a serious run.

They just have to make those adjustments.

Your move, Bill Smith.

So far this year, I’ve spent quite a bit of time banging the optimism drum quite a bit; more than most Twins fans and bloggers. There have been two distinct periods so far this season, which have caused somewhat similar consternation among the fan base.

The first period lasted roughly two months, up until the beginning of June. The Twins led the league in OBP, and were in the top three in both runs scored and runs allowed. Their team OBP indicated that they should have been scoring even more runs; they weren’t scoring those runs, though, because of an absurd (and un-Twins-like) failure with runners in scoring position and a historic GIDP-rate. Throughout this period, I insisted that there wasn’t anything to worry about, because OBP is a more stable statistic than hitting with runners in scoring position; the OBP, I thought, ought to remain high as the team started hitting with men on base. Additionally, I thought it was reasonable to expect that the Twins wouldn’t actually shatter the all time record for double plays by 20%.

However, those arguments relied on the Twins maintaining the same approach and weathering the storm. That doesn’t appear to have happened; rather than continue hitting and walking as they had been, the Twins have stopped walking, stopped getting on base, and stopped scoring. Span and Mauer in particular have seen their OBPs fall through the floor, but Delmon Young turned around his early-season walking ways and gone back to swinging freely. The team is now hitting about as well as could be expected with runners on base; unfortunately, there are now many fewer such opportunities.

This sudden change of approach, reverting back to the old Twins Way that Gardenhire is surely most comfortable with, is a mistake. Trying to slash out hits without walking, advancing aggressively on the basepaths, and hitting unusually well with runners in scoring position isn’t supposed to be a viable strategy, though Gardy has shown he can make it work multiple times in the past. The problem is that this season, the roster is absolutely not constructed that way. This team, with Span as its fastest player, with Mauer/Morneau/Kubel/Thome/Cuddyer/Young/Hardy in the lineup, is designed to score runs by getting on base, getting on base, getting on base, and waiting for someone to smack an extra base hit.

Instead, it seems Gardy gave the conventional slugger offense “a chance,” and then went right back to his old ways. It shows in the hitting lines of many players; they’re swinging early in the count, getting behind, swinging defensively, and making outs instead of getting on base. They’re clearly pressing at the plate. It is not working.

Much of my confidence in the Twins this year is based on previous seasons: they always seem to pull together and get into a groove during the summer, ripping off a long winning streak and putting themselves in a strong position for the stretch run. What could be different this time around?

Could it be that Gardy doesn’t know how to play when ahead? When the Twins are behind in the standings, he can use that as a rallying cry and pull the team together. When the Twins happen to be ahead in the standings, regardless of how poorly they’re playing, he can’t seem to see any problems. During the midst of the June collapse, Gardy famously said “We’re in first place!” He has not gotten back to us now that the obvious trends played out shortly afterward, leaving the Twins in third place.

Could it be that there aren’t enough bad/exciting players to inspire the team? Say what you will about Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla, but I’ll say this: the rest of the lineup couldn’t rely on them for anything, but when they happened to do anything they managed to wreak havoc on the opposing team. This year, there are no black holes in the lineup; I naturally assumed that was a good thing, but it seems the players thought they could rely on their teammates to drive them in and, when that didn’t start happening soon enough, stopped waiting and started flailing.

I’m beginning to come to grips with the possibility that these aren’t your older brother’s Twins,* and that we will not be well-served by waiting for things to turn around. Gardy doesn’t know how to manage a team like this (which is probably why he had both Punto and Tolbert in the lineup together so often), and they no longer seem like a team that’s getting bad breaks.

* Wait a minute, I’m the older brother. Whose Twins are these?

This is a team that’s playing badly, swinging like they don’t trust each other, defending like they don’t care, pitching like they don’t know how, and … well, losing.

At this point, I don’t think a midseason move can improve the team enough to matter. The Twins and their fans simply have to hope that whatever Bill Smith does, it’s enough to inspire the team to believe in themselves again. Without that, they’re going nowhere.

Can anyone think of legitimate reasons for optimism any more?